Ischemic stroke risk factors not included in the CHADS-VASC score in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

In patients with atrial fibrillation, the CHA2DS2-VASC score guides stroke prevention using anticoagulants, but it is an imperfect score. Other potential risk factors such as renal failure, the type of atrial fibrillation, active smoking, cancer, sleep apnea or systemic inflammation have less well been investigated.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the impact of these factors on ischemic stroke risk in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation.

METHODS

On a population of 248 patients (124 patients with acute ischemic stroke and 124 controls), we performed a logistic regression to assess the impact of multiple non-classic risk factors for the prediction of acute ischemic stroke. Their impact on mortality was assessed by performing a survival analysis.

RESULTS

A high CHA2DS2-VASc score (OR 1.75; 95% CI 1.13-2.70; p = 0.032), treatment with anticoagulants (OR 0.19; 95% CI 0.07-0.51; p < 0.001) and permanent atrial fibrillation (OR 6.31; 95% CI 2.46-16.19; p < 0.001) were independently associated with acute ischemic stroke. Renal failure and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease predicted a higher mortality. After adjusting for age, sex, the CHA2DS2-VASc score and the use of anticoagulants, the only risk factor predictive for acute ischemic stroke was the permanent type of AF (OR: 8.0 [95% CI 2.5-25.5], p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The CHA2DS2-VASc score, the absence of anticoagulants and the permanent type of atrial fibrillation were the main predictive factors for the occurrence of acute ischemic stroke. Larger studies are necessary for conclusive results about other factors.

Association of CHA2DS2-VASc Score with Long-Term Incidence of New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation and Ischemic Stroke after Myocardial Infarction

The CHA2DS2-VASc score is a reliable tool used to estimate the risk of ischemic stroke (IS) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Few tools exist for the prediction of new-onset AF (NOAF) after myocardial infarction (MI) and its relation to IS. We studied the usefulness of CHA2DS2-VASc in predicting NOAF and IS in a long-term follow-up after MI. Consecutive MI patients without baseline AF (n = 70,922; mean age: 68.2 years), discharged from 20 hospitals in Finland during 2005−2018, were retrospectively studied using national registries. The outcomes of interest after discharge were NOAF- and IS-assessed with competing risk analyses at one and ten years. The median follow-up was 4.2 years. The median baseline CHA2DS2-VASc score was 3 (IQR 2−5). The likelihood of both NOAF and NOAF-related IS increased stepwise with this score at one and ten years (all p < 0.0001). The one-year-adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio (sHR) was 4.03 (CI 3.68−4.42) for NOAF in patients with CHA2DS2-VASc scores ≥6 points. The cumulative incidence of IS was 15.2% in patients with NOAF vs. 6.2% in patients without AF at 10 years after MI (adj. sHR 2.12; CI 1.98−2.28; p < 0.0001). Coronary artery bypass surgery was associated with a higher NOAF incidence compared to percutaneous coronary intervention (adj. sHR 1.87; CI 1.65−2.13; p < 0.0001 one year after MI). The CHA2DS2-VASc score is a simple tool used to estimate the long-term risk of NOAF and IS after MI in patients without baseline AF. Coronary bypass surgery is associated with an increased NOAF incidence after MI.