Overconfidence in the Cognitive Reflection Test: Comparing Confidence Resolution for Reasoning vs. General Knowledge

This research examines the metacognitive awareness that people have about their reasoning performance in the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT). The first two studies compare confidence judgments about the CRT vs. general knowledge (GK) questions. Results show that (1) people are generally able to discriminate between correct and incorrect answers, but this ability is far from perfect, and it is greater for GK questions than for CRT problems. Indeed, and strikingly, (2) incorrect responses to CRT problems are produced with approximately the same level of confidence as correct responses to GK questions. However, (3) even though confidence is high for incorrect responses to CRT problems, it is even higher for correct responses. The results of two additional studies show that these differences in confidence are ultimately related to the conflict that CRT problems pose between intuition and deliberation. These findings have implications for the possibility of implicit error monitoring and dual-process models of overconfidence.

Conflict Detection in Moderate Base-Rate Tasks: A Multi-Measure Study

Empirical studies have found that although humans often rely on heuristic intuition to make stereotypical judgments during extreme base-rate tasks, they can at least detect conflicts between stereotypical and base-rate responses, which supports the dual-processing view of flawless conflict detection. The current study combines the conflict detection paradigm with moderate base-rate tasks of different scales to test the generalization and boundaries of flawless conflict detection. After controlling for possible confounding by the "storage failure" factor, the conflict detection results indicated that reasoners providing stereotypical heuristic responses to conflict problems were slower to respond, less confident in their stereotypical responses, and slower to indicate their reduced confidence than reasoners who answered no-conflict problems. Moreover, none of these differences were affected by different scales. The results suggest that stereotypical reasoners are not blind heuristic performers and that they at least realize that their heuristic responses are not entirely warranted, which supports the argument for flawless conflict detection and extends the boundaries of flawless conflict detection. We discuss the implications of these findings for views of detection, human rationality, and the boundaries of conflict detection.

Single-Heuristic Reasoning: Is It Still Dual-Process?

Traditionally, paradigms used to study conflict in reasoning (and metacognition during reasoning) pit heuristic processes against analytical processes. Findings indicate that the presence of conflict between processes prolongs reasoning and decreases accuracy and confidence. In this study, we aimed to explore reasoning and metacognition when only one type of heuristic process is exploited to cue multiple responses. In two experiments, a novel modification of the Base Rate neglect task was used to create versions in which one belief-based heuristic competes, or works in concert, with another of the same type to provide a response. Experiment 1 results reveal that the presence of conflict between cued responses does not affect meta-reasoning, which indicates that reasoning defaulted to a single process. An alternative explanation was that the effect of conflict was masked due to an imbalance in the strength of the dominant response between conflicting and congruent versions. Experiment 2 was designed to test hypotheses based on these competing explanations. Findings show that when the strength of a response was no longer masking the effect, the conflict did result in longer reasoning times and lower confidence. The study provides more robust evidence in favor of the dual-process account of reasoning, introduces a new methodological approach, and discusses how conflict may be modulated during reasoning.

Learning Assurance Analysis for Further Certification Process of Machine Learning Techniques: Case-Study Air Traffic Conflict Detection Predictor

Designing and developing artificial intelligence (AI)-based systems that can be trusted justifiably is one of the main issues aviation must face in the coming years. European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has developed a user guide that could be potentially transformed as means of compliance for future AI-based regulation. Designers and developers must understand how the learning assurance process of any machine learning (ML) model impacts trust. ML is a narrow branch of AI that uses statistical models to perform predictions. This work deals with the learning assurance process for ML-based systems in the field of air traffic control. A conflict detection tool has been developed to identify separation infringements among aircraft pairs, and the ML algorithm used for classification and regression was extreme gradient boosting. This paper analyses the validity and adaptability of EASA W-shaped methodology for ML-based systems. The results have identified the lack of the EASA W-shaped methodology in time-dependent analysis, by showing how time can impact ML algorithms designed in the case where no time requirements are considered. Another meaningful conclusion is, for systems that depend highly on when the prediction is made, classification and regression metrics cannot be one-size-fits-all because they vary over time.

Economic threat heightens conflict detection: sLORETA evidence

Economic threat has far-reaching emotional and social consequences, yet the impact of economic threat on neurocognitive processes has received little empirical scrutiny. Here, we examined the causal relationship between economic threat and conflict detection, a critical process in cognitive control associated with the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC). Participants (N = 103) were first randomly assigned to read about a gloomy economic forecast (Economic Threat condition) or a stable economic forecast (No-Threat Control condition). Notably, these forecasts were based on real, publicly available economic predictions. Participants then completed a passive auditory oddball task composed of frequent standard tones and infrequent, aversive white-noise bursts, a task that elicits the N2, an event-related potential component linked to conflict detection. Results revealed that participants in the Economic Threat condition evidenced increased activation source localized to the ACC during the N2 to white-noise stimuli. Further, ACC activation to conflict mediated an effect of Economic Threat on increased justification for personal wealth. Economic threat thus has implications for basic neurocognitive function. Discussion centers on how effects on conflict detection could shed light on the broader emotional and social consequences of economic threat.

Attention Distribution While Detecting Conflicts between Converging Objects: An Eye-Tracking Study

In many domains, including air traffic control, observers have to detect conflicts between moving objects. However, it is unclear what the effect of conflict angle is on observers’ conflict detection performance. In addition, it has been speculated that observers use specific viewing techniques while performing a conflict detection task, but evidence for this is lacking. In this study, participants (N = 35) observed two converging objects while their eyes were recorded. They were tasked to continuously indicate whether a conflict between the two objects was present. Independent variables were conflict angle (30, 100, 150 deg), update rate (discrete, continuous), and conflict occurrence. Results showed that 30 deg conflict angles yielded the best performance, and 100 deg conflict angles the worst. For 30 deg conflict angles, participants applied smooth pursuit while attending to the objects. In comparison, for 100 and especially 150 deg conflict angles, participants showed a high fixation rate and glances towards the conflict point. Finally, the continuous update rate was found to yield shorter fixation durations and better performance than the discrete update rate. In conclusion, shallow conflict angles yield the best performance, an effect that can be explained using basic perceptual heuristics, such as the ‘closer is first’ strategy. Displays should provide continuous rather than discrete update rates.

Probabilistic Strategic Conflict-Management for 4D Trajectories in Free-Route Airspace

The expected growth of air traffic in the following decades demands the implementation of new operational concepts to avoid current limitations of the air traffic management system. This paper focuses on the strategic conflict management for four-dimensional trajectories (4DT) in free-route airspace. 4DT has been proposed as the future operational concept to manage air traffic. Thus, aircraft must fulfil temporary restrictions at specific waypoints in the airspace based on time windows. Based on the temporary restrictions, a strategic conflict management method is proposed to calculate the conflict probability of an aircraft pair (that intersects in the air) and to calculate temporary-blocking windows that quantify the time span at which an aircraft cannot depart because one conflict could occur. This methodology was applied in a case-study for an aircraft pair, including the uncertainty associated with 4DT. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis was performed to characterise the impact of wind conditions and speed control on the temporary-blocking windows. The results concluded that it is feasible to propose 4DT strategic de-confliction based on temporary-blocking windows. Although, uncertainty variables such as wind and speed control impact on the conflict probability and the size of the temporary-blocking windows.

Sensitivity to Visual Speed Modulation in Head-Mounted Displays Depends on Fixation

A primary cause of simulator sickness in head-mounted displays (HMDs) is conflict between the visual scene displayed to the user and the visual scene expected by the brain when the user's head is in motion. It is useful to measure perceptual sensitivity to visual speed modulation in HMDs because conditions that minimize this sensitivity may prove less likely to elicit simulator sickness. In prior research, we measured sensitivity to visual gain modulation during slow, passive, full-body yaw rotations and observed that sensitivity was reduced when subjects fixated a head-fixed target compared with when they fixated a scene-fixed target. In the current study, we investigated whether this pattern of results persists when (1) movements are faster, active head turns, and (2) visual stimuli are presented on an HMD rather than on a monitor. Subjects wore an Oculus Rift CV1 HMD and viewed a 3D scene of white points on a black background. On each trial, subjects moved their head from a central position to face a 15° eccentric target. During the head movement they fixated a point that was either head-fixed or scene-fixed, depending on condition. They then reported if the visual scene motion was too fast or too slow. Visual speed on subsequent trials was modulated according to a staircase procedure to find the speed increment that was just noticeable. Sensitivity to speed modulation during active head movement was reduced during head-fixed fixation, similar to what we observed during passive whole-body rotation. We conclude that fixation of a head-fixed target is an effective way to reduce sensitivity to visual speed modulation in HMDs, and may also be an effective strategy to reduce susceptibility to simulator sickness.

Impaired Cognitive Control of Emotional Conflict in Trait Anxiety: A Preliminary Study Based on Clinical and Non-Clinical Individuals

BACKGROUND

It has been observed that trait anxiety easily leads to conflict maladaptation under conflict circumstances. However, it remains unclear whether the precise neural mechanisms underlying the effects of high trait anxiety (HTA) on cognitive control are consistent in high trait anxious individuals, with and without anxiety disorders.

METHODS

The present study recruited 29 healthy volunteers with low trait anxiety (LTA), 37 healthy volunteers with HTA, and 23 patients with generalized anxiety disorder (GAD). All participants completed demographic information and self-report measures of trait anxiety and depression. Then, they performed the emotional flanker task with event-related potentials (ERPs) recorded.

RESULTS

Behavioral data manifested that, relative to LTA individuals, GAD patients displayed prolonged response times and increased error rates, while HTA individuals showed intact response times and accuracies. Event-related potential (ERP) data revealed that HTA individuals exhibited a trend toward more negative N2 amplitudes for conflict detection. By contrast, both HTA and GAD individuals displayed decreased P3 amplitudes for conflict resolution. ERP results indicated that both HTA and GAD individuals exhibited conflict maladaptation on the N2 amplitude. Correlation analyses also showed that the increased anxiety symptoms were associated with longer reaction times, more error rates, lower P3 amplitudes, and more perturbations in conflict adaptation on reaction times and N2 amplitudes.

CONCLUSION

Our results demonstrated a severely impaired cognitive control in GAD patients while a moderately impaired cognitive control in HTA individuals. Trait anxiety can indeed serve as a predominant factor at the onset and in the maintenance of GAD. Therefore, the trait anxiety reducing strategies may provide significant therapeutic gains.

The Negative Relationship between Reasoning and Religiosity Is Underpinned by a Bias for Intuitive Responses Specifically When Intuition and Logic Are in Conflict

It is well established that religiosity correlates inversely with intelligence. A prominent hypothesis states that this correlation reflects behavioral biases toward intuitive problem solving, which causes errors when intuition conflicts with reasoning. We tested predictions of this hypothesis by analyzing data from two large-scale Internet-cohort studies (combined N = 63,235). We report that atheists surpass religious individuals in terms of reasoning but not working-memory performance. The religiosity effect is robust across sociodemographic factors including age, education and country of origin. It varies significantly across religions and this co-occurs with substantial cross-group differences in religious dogmatism. Critically, the religiosity effect is strongest for tasks that explicitly manipulate conflict; more specifically, atheists outperform the most dogmatic religious group by a substantial margin (0.6 standard deviations) during a color-word conflict task but not during a challenging matrix-reasoning task. These results support the hypothesis that behavioral biases rather than impaired general intelligence underlie the religiosity effect.

TreSpEx-Detection of Misleading Signal in Phylogenetic Reconstructions Based on Tree Information

Phylogenies of species or genes are commonplace nowadays in many areas of comparative biological studies. However, for phylogenetic reconstructions one must refer to artificial signals such as paralogy, long-branch attraction, saturation, or conflict between different datasets. These signals might eventually mislead the reconstruction even in phylogenomic studies employing hundreds of genes. Unfortunately, there has been no program allowing the detection of such effects in combination with an implementation into automatic process pipelines. TreSpEx (Tree Space Explorer) now combines different approaches (including statistical tests), which utilize tree-based information like nodal support or patristic distances (PDs) to identify misleading signals. The program enables the parallel analysis of hundreds of trees and/or predefined gene partitions, and being command-line driven, it can be integrated into automatic process pipelines. TreSpEx is implemented in Perl and supported on Linux, Mac OS X, and MS Windows. Source code, binaries, and additional material are freely available at http://www.annelida.de/research/bioinformatics/software.html.

Electrophysiological evidence of enhanced performance monitoring in recently abstinent alcoholic men

RATIONALE

Chronic alcoholism is associated with mild to moderate cognitive impairment. Under certain conditions, impairment can be ameliorated by invoking compensatory processes.

OBJECTIVE

To identify electrophysiological mechanisms of such compensation that would be required to resolve response conflict.

METHODS

14 abstinent alcoholic men and 14 similarly aged control men performed a variation of the Eriksen flanker task during an electroencephalography (EEG) recording to examine whether alcoholics could achieve and maintain control-level performance and whether EEG markers could identify evidence for the action of compensatory processes in the alcoholics. Monitoring processes engaged following a response were indexed by the correct related negativity (CRN) and error related negativity (ERN), two medial-frontal negative event-related potentials.

RESULTS

The alcoholics were able to perform at control levels on accuracy and reaction time (RT). Alcoholics generated larger ERN amplitudes following incorrect responses and larger CRNs following correct responses than controls. Both groups showed evidence of post-error slowing. Larger CRN amplitudes in the alcoholics were related to longer RTs. Also observed in the alcoholics was an association between smaller CRN amplitudes and length of sobriety, suggesting a normalization of monitoring activity with extended abstinence.

CONCLUSIONS

To the extent that greater amplitude of these electrophysiological markers of performance monitoring indexes greater resource allocation and performance compensation, the larger amplitudes observed in the alcoholic than control group support the view that elevated performance monitoring enables abstinent alcoholics to overcome response conflict, as was evident in their control-level performance.