Comparative phylogeography reveals the demographic patterns of neotropical ancient mountain species

Mountains are renowned for their bountiful biodiversity. Explanations on the origin of such abundant life are usually regarded to their orogenic history. However, ancient mountain systems with geological stability also exhibit astounding levels of number of species and endemism, as illustrated by the Brazilian Quartzitic Mountains (BQM) in Eastern South America. Thus, cycles of climatic changes over the last couple million years are usually assumed to play an important role in the origin of mountainous biota. These climatic oscillations potentially isolated and reconnected adjacent populations, a phenomenon known as flickering connectivity, accelerating speciation events due to range fragmentation, dispersion, secondary contact, and hybridization. To evaluate the role of the climatic fluctuations on the diversification of the BQM biota, we estimated the ancient demography of distinct endemic species of animals and plants using hierarchical approximate Bayesian computation analysis and Ecological Niche Modelling. Additionally, we evaluated if climatic oscillations have driven a genetic spatial congruence in the genetic structure of codistributed species from the Espinhaço Range, one of the main BQM areas. Our results show that the majority of plant lineages underwent a synchronous expansion over the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, c. 21 thousand years ago), although we could not obtain a clear demographic pattern for the animal lineages. We also obtained a signal of a congruent phylogeographic break between lineages endemic to the Espinhaço Range, suggesting how ancient climatic oscillations might have driven the evolutionary history of the Espinhaço's biota.

Comparative and predictive phylogeography in the South American diagonal of open formations: Unravelling the biological and environmental influences on multitaxon demography

Phylogeography investigates historical drivers of the geographical distribution of intraspecific lineages. Particular attention has been given to ecological, climatic and geological processes in the diversification of the Neotropical biota. Several species sampled across the South American diagonal of open formations (DOF), comprising the Caatinga, Cerrado and Chaco biomes, experienced range shifts coincident with Quaternary climatic changes. However, comparative studies across different spatial, temporal and biological scales on DOF species are still meagre. Here, we combine phylogeographical model selection and machine learning predictive frameworks to investigate the influence of Pleistocene climatic changes on several plant and animal species from the DOF. We assembled mitochondrial/chloroplastic DNA sequences in public repositories and inferred the demographic responses of 44 species, comprising 70 intraspecific lineages of plants, lizards, frogs, spiders and insects. We then built a random forest model using biotic and abiotic information to identify the best predictors of demographic responses in the Pleistocene. Finally, we assessed the temporal synchrony of species demographic responses with hierarchical approximate Bayesian computation. Biotic variables related to population connectivity, gene flow and habitat preferences largely predicted how species responded to Pleistocene climatic changes, and demographic changes were synchronous primarily during the Middle Pleistocene. Although 22 (~31%) lineages underwent demographic expansion, presumably associated with the spread of aridity during the glacial Pleistocene periods, our findings suggest that nine lineages (~13%) exhibited the opposite response due to taxon-specific attributes.