Metrics of Mobility: Assessing the Impact of COVID-19 on Travel Behavior

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted typical travel behavior worldwide. In the United States (U.S.), government entities took action to limit its spread through public health messaging to encourage reduced mobility and thus reduce the spread of the virus. Within statewide responses to COVID-19, however, there were different responses locally. Likely some of these variations were a result of individual attitudes toward the government and health messaging, but there is also likely a portion of the effects that were because of the character of the communities. In this research, we summarize county-level characteristics that are known to affect travel behavior for 404 counties in the U.S., and we investigate correlates of mobility between April and September (2020). We do this through application of three metrics that are derived via changepoint analysis-initial post-disruption mobility index, changepoint on restoration of a "new normal," and recovered mobility index. We find that variables for employment sectors are significantly correlated and had large effects on mobility during the pandemic. The state dummy variables are significant, suggesting that counties within the same state behaved more similarly to one another than to counties in different states. Our findings indicate that few travel characteristics that typically correlate with travel behavior are related to pandemic mobility, and that the number of COVID-19 cases may not be correlated with mobility outcomes.

Quantitative Framework for Establishing Low-Risk Inter-District Travel Corridors During COVID-19

Aspirations to slow down the spread of novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) resulted in unprecedented restrictions on personal and work-related travels in various nations across the globe in 2020. As a consequence, economic activities within and across the countries were almost halted. As restrictions loosen and cities start to resume public and private transport to revamp the economy, it becomes critical to assess the commuters' travel-related risk in light of the ongoing pandemic. The paper develops a generalizable quantitative framework to evaluate the commute-related risk arising from inter-district and intra-district travel by combining nonparametric data envelopment analysis for vulnerability assessment with transportation network analysis. It demonstrates the application of the proposed model for establishing travel corridors within and across Gujarat and Maharashtra, two Indian states that have reported many COVID-19 cases since early April 2020. The findings suggest that establishing travel corridors between a pair of districts solely based on the health vulnerability indices of the origin and destination discards the en-route travel risks from the prevalent pandemic, underestimating the threat. For example, while the resultant of social and health vulnerabilities of Narmada and Vadodara districts is relatively moderate, the en-route travel risk exacerbates the overall travel risk of travel between them. The study provides a quantitative framework to identify the alternate path with the least risk and hence establish low-risk travel corridors within and across states while accounting for social and health vulnerabilities in addition to transit-time related risks.

Pedestrians and the Built Environment during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Changing Relationships by the Pandemic Phases in Salt Lake County, Utah, U.S.A

The COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically altered people's travel behavior, in particular outdoor activities, including walking. Their behavior changes may have prolonged effects after the pandemic, and such changes vary by the context and are related to the characteristics of the built environment. But empirical studies about the relationships between pedestrians and the built environment during the pandemic are lacking. This study explores how COVID-19 and related travel restrictions have affected the relationship between pedestrian traffic volume and the built environment. We estimate daily pedestrian volumes for all signalized intersections in Salt Lake County, Utah, U.S.A., from pedestrian push-button log data between January 2019 and October 2020. Multilevel spatial filtering models show that the COVID-19 pandemic has altered the relationship between pedestrian traffic volume and the built environment. During the pandemic, the higher the number of COVID-19 cases, the less (or more negative) the effects of density, street connectivity, and destination accessibility on pedestrian volume being observed. The exception is access to urban parks, as it became more significant in increasing pedestrian activities during the pandemic. The models also highlight the negative impacts of the pandemic in economically disadvantaged areas. Our findings could help urban and transportation planners find effective interventions to promote active transportation and physical activity amid the global pandemic.

Impacts of COVID-19 on Future Preferences Toward Telework

This paper presents a study in capturing the impacts of the mandatory pandemic-induced telework practice on workers' perceptions of the benefits, challenges, and difficulties associated with telecommuting and how those might influence their preference for telework in the future. Data was collected through an online survey conducted in South Florida in May 2020. Survey data showed that telework indices (either measured through actual behavior or stated preference) before, during, and after the pandemic were heterogeneous across socio-economic, demographic, and attitudinal segments. Before the outbreak, males, full-time students, those with PhD degrees, and high-income people showed higher percentages of involvement in jobs with a telework option. They also had higher pro-technology, pro-online education, workaholic, and pro-telework attitudes. During the pandemic, professional/managerial/technical jobs as well as jobs with lower physical-proximity measures showed the highest telework frequency. In view of future telework preferences, our analysis showed that those who were more pro-telework, pro-technology, and showed less dislike of telework dislike preferred higher telework frequency. A structural equation model was developed to assess the impacts of different predictors on telework behavior before the pandemic and preferences after the pandemic. While telework frequency before the pandemic was highly affected by the pro-telework attitude, the after-pandemic preferences were influenced by several other attitudes such as dislike telework, enjoy interaction, workaholic, as well as productivity factors. This might confirm the assumption that the mandatory practice through the pandemic has provided employees more experiences with work-from-home arrangements, which could reshape decisions and expectations around telework adoption in the future.

Health Care Logistics Network Design and Analysis on Pandemic Outbreaks: Insights From COVID-19

Health care systems throughout the world are under pressure as a result of COVID-19. It is over two years since the first case was announced in China and health care providers are continuing to struggle with this fatal infectious disease in intensive care units and inpatient wards. Meanwhile, the burden of postponed routine medical procedures has become greater as the pandemic has progressed. We believe that establishing separate health care institutions for infected and non-infected patients would provide safer and better quality health care services. The aim of this study is to find the appropriate number and location of dedicated health care institutions which would only treat individuals infected by a pandemic during an outbreak. For this purpose, a decision-making framework including two multi-objective mixed-integer programming models is developed. At the strategic level, the locations of designated pandemic hospitals are optimized. At the tactical level, we determine the locations and operation durations of temporary isolation centers which treat mildly and moderately symptomatic patients. The developed framework provides assessments of the distance that infected patients travel, the routine medical services expected to be disrupted, two-way distances between new facilities (designated pandemic hospitals and isolation centers), and the infection risk in the population. To demonstrate the applicability of the suggested models, we perform a case study for the European side of Istanbul. In the base case, seven designated pandemic hospitals and four isolation centers are established. In sensitivity analyses, 23 cases are analyzed and compared to provide support to decision makers.

Analysis of Road Transport Response to COVID-19 Pandemic in Nigeria and its Policy Implications

The COVID-19 pandemic presents a serious global health challenge to humanity in recent times. It has caused fundamental disruptions to the global transportation system, supply chains, and trade. The impact on the transport sector resulting from lockdowns has led to huge losses in revenue. At the moment there are limited studies of the road transport sector response to the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper fills this gap using Nigeria as a case study area. A mixed method involving both qualitative and quantitative research was employed. Principal Component Analysis and Multiple Criteria Analysis were used to analyze the data. The results suggest that road transport operators strongly (90.7%) believe that 51 adopted new technologies/innovations, processes, and procedures will keep them and passengers safe from the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria. A breakdown shows that observing the lockdown directive is perceived by road transport operators as the most effective response to the pandemic. The breakdown continues in descending order thus: COVID-19 safety protocols, environmental sanitation, and promotion of hygiene, information technology, facemask, and social distancing. Others are public enlightenment, palliative, inclusion, and mass media. This indicates that non-pharmaceutical measures are very effective in the fight against the pandemic. This finding leverages support for the application of non-pharmaceutical guidelines in containing the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria.

Effects of COVID-19 on Telework and Commuting Behavior: Evidence from 3 Years of Panel Data

The COVID-19 pandemic has forced employers and employees to re-evaluate their attitudes toward telecommuting. This induced a change in the sheer number of people who have started to work from home (WFH). While previous studies highlight differences between telecommuters based on their level of telecommuting experience, these effects have not been studied in detail. This may limit the evaluation of implications for post-pandemic times and the transferability of models and predictions based on data collected during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study expands on previous findings by comparing the characteristics and behavior of those who have started to telecommute during the pandemic and those who had already telecommuted before. Furthermore, this study addresses the uncertainty that exists about whether the findings of studies conducted before the pandemic-for example about sociodemographic characteristics of telecommuters-still hold true, or if the pandemic induced a shift in telecommuters' profiles. Telecommuters show differences when considering their previous experience in WFH. The results of this study suggest that the transition induced by the pandemic was more drastic for new telecommuters compared with experienced telecommuters. The COVID-19 pandemic had an effect on how household configurations are considered in the choice to WFH. With decreased access to child care resulting from school closings, people with children in the household were more likely to choose to telecommute during the pandemic. Also, while people living alone are generally less likely to choose to WFH, this effect was reduced as a result of the pandemic.

Shifting Mobility Behaviors in Unprecedented Times: A Multigroup MIMIC Model Investigating Intentions to Use On-Demand Ride Services During the COVID-19 Pandemic

The spread of COVID-19 has been a major disruptive force in people's everyday lives and mobility behavior. The demand for on-demand ride services, such as taxis and ridehailing, has been specifically affected given both restrictions in service operations and users' concerns about virus transmission in shared vehicles. In the early months of the pandemic, demand for these modes decreased by as much as 80%. This study examines intentions to use on-demand ride services in the early lockdown stage of the pandemic in the United States, a period of unprecedented mobility reductions, changing household routines and transforming travel behaviors. Using data from a survey disseminated in June 2020 to 700 U.S. respondents, we use multigroup MIMIC (Multiple Indicator Multiple Cause) models to investigate the stated shift in intentions to use on-demand modes of travel. By using group-based segmentation we control for variation in ridership intentions according to personal, household, attitudinal factors, and pandemic experiences. The results point to a reduction across the board in the likelihood of using on-demand mobility associated with a significant COVID-19 effect. Beyond this general decrease, several groups are found to have more positive intentions, including younger adults, urban residents, graduate-degree holders, and people of Hispanic, Latino, Asian, and Pacific Islander ethnicities/races. The attitudinal effect of "tech-savviness" drives higher user intentions, revealing indirect effects of gender, education, and age. Multigroup analysis provides further evidence of potential COVID-triggered shifts in on-demand ridership intentions. The most significant drops in likelihood are observed for younger respondents (below 45), Black compared with all other racial/ethnic status, and for past users of on-demand mobility. This latter result is somewhat surprising, as riders who are younger and more experienced with on-demand travel are more likely to have been users in the past, but also more likely to reduce use during the pandemic. To conclude, we discuss the need to investigate pandemic experiences, risk attitudes, and circumstances to understand evolving mobility behavior and specific service model impacts.

Equity Implications of Ride-Hail Travel during COVID-19 in California

COVID-19 has shocked every system in the U.S., including transportation. In the first months of the pandemic, driving and transit use fell far below normal levels. Yet people still need to travel for essential purposes like medical appointments, buying groceries, and-for those who cannot work from home-to work. For some, the pandemic may exacerbate extant travel challenges as transit agencies reduce service hours and frequency. As travelers reevaluate modal options, it remains unclear how one mode-ride-hailing-fits into the transportation landscape during COVID-19. In particular, how does the number of ride-hail trips vary across neighborhood characteristics before versus during the pandemic? And how do patterns of essential trips pre-pandemic compare with those during COVID-19? To answer these questions, we analyzed aggregated Uber trip data before and during the first two months of the COVID-19 pandemic across four regions in California. We find that during these first months, ride-hail trips fell at levels commensurate with transit (82%), while trips serving identified essential destinations fell by less (62%). Changes in ride-hail use were unevenly distributed across neighborhoods, with higher-income areas and those with more transit commuters and higher shares of zero-car households showing steeper declines in the number of trips made during the pandemic. Conversely, neighborhoods with more older (aged 45+) residents, and a greater proportion of Black, Hispanic/Latinx, and Asian residents still appear to rely more on ride-hail during the pandemic compared with other neighborhoods. These findings further underscore the need for cities to invest in robust and redundant transportation systems to create a resilient mobility network.

Exploring Public Perception Toward Travel and COVID-19 Preventive Measures: Insights From the Early Stages of Lockdown in India

The paper reports evidence related to peoples' perceptions and attitude during the early stages of COVID-19 related lockdown in India in four major aspects: strategies and preventive measures, long-distance travel, essential services, and post-lockdown travel. A five-stage survey instrument was designed and circulated through various online modes to make it convenient to the respondents and also to achieve a greater geographical coverage within a short period of time. The survey responses were analyzed using statistical tools and the results are translated into potential policy recommendations which may be useful to implement effective interventions during future pandemics of similar nature. The findings highlight a high rate of awareness among the people about the COVID-19, lack of supply of protective equipment such as masks, gloves, and personal protective equipment kits during the early stage of lockdown in India. However, several heterogeneities were also observed across a few socio-economic groups which emphasize the need for targeted campaigns in a diverse country such as India. The findings also suggest the need for arranging safe and hygienic long-distance trips for a section of the society when such lockdown measures are extended for long periods. The observations related to mode choice preferences during the post-lockdown recovery period indicate a potential shift of public transport patronage to the personal modes.

Mitigating Increased Driving after the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Analysis on Mode Share, Travel Demand, and Public Transport Capacity

Reduced transit capacity to accommodate social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic was a sudden constraint that along with a large reduction in total travel volume and a shift in activity patterns contributed to abrupt changes in transportation mode shares across cities worldwide. There are major concerns that as the total travel demand rises back toward prepandemic levels, the overall transport system capacity with transit constraints will be insufficient for the increasing demand. This paper uses city-level scenario analysis to examine the potential increase in post-COVID-19 car use and the feasibility of shifting to active transportation, based on prepandemic mode shares and varying levels of reduction in transit capacity. An application of the analysis to a sample of cities in Europe and North America is presented. Mitigating an increase in driving requires a substantial increase in active transportation mode share, particularly in cities with high pre-COVID-19 transit ridership; however, such a shift may be possible based on the high percentage of short-distance motorized trips. The results highlight the importance of making active transportation attractive and reinforce the value of multimodal transportation systems as a strategy for urban resilience. This paper provides a strategic planning tool for policy makers facing challenging transportation system decisions in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.

COVID-19: Modeling Out-of-Home and In-Home Activity Participation during the Pandemic

Understanding the interaction between in-home and out-of-home activity participation decisions is important, particularly at a time when opportunities for out-of-home activities such as shopping, entertainment, and so forth are limited because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The travel restrictions imposed as a result of the pandemic have had a massive impact on out-of-home activities and have changed in-home activities as well. This study investigates in-home and out-of-home activity participation during the COVID-19 pandemic. Data comes from the COVID-19 Survey for assessing Travel impact (COST), conducted from March to May in 2020. This study uses data for the Okanagan region of British Columbia, Canada to develop the following two models: a random parameter multinomial logit (RPMNL) model for out-of-home activity participation and a hazard-based random parameter duration (HRPD) model for in-home activity participation. The model results suggest that significant interactions exist between out-of-home and in-home activities. For example, a higher frequency of out-of-home work-related travel is more likely to result in a shorter duration of in-home work activities. Similarly, a longer duration of in-home leisure activities might yield a lower likelihood for recreational travel. Health care workers are more likely to engage in work-related travel and less likely to participate in personal and household maintenance activities at home. The model confirms heterogeneity among the individuals. For instance, a shorter duration of in-home online shopping yields a higher probability for participation in out-of-home shopping activity. This variable shows significant heterogeneity with a large standard deviation, which reveals that sizable variation exists for this variable.

Longitudinal Analysis of COVID-19 Impacts on Mobility: An Early Snapshot of the Emerging Changes in Travel Behavior

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a huge disruption worldwide with direct and indirect effects on travel behavior. In response to extensive community spread and potential risk of infection, during the early stage of the pandemic many state and local governments implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions that restricted non-essential travel for residents. This study evaluates the impacts of the pandemic on mobility by analyzing micro panel data (N = 1,274) collected in the United States via online surveys in two periods, before and during the early phase of the pandemic. The panel makes it possible to observe initial trends in travel behavior change, adoption of online shopping, active travel, and use of shared mobility services. This analysis intends to document a high-level overview of the initial impacts to spur future research to dive deeper into these topics. With the analysis of the panel data, substantial shifts are found from physical commutes to teleworking, more adoption of e-shopping and home delivery services, more frequent trips by walking and biking for leisure purposes, and changes in ridehailing use with substantial variations across socioeconomic groups. The social and environmental implications of these findings are discussed and suggestions for effective policy and directions for future research are made in the conclusion.

Multiperspective Analysis of Pandemic Impacts on U.S. Import Trade: What Happened, and Why?

U.S. container ports have experienced unpresented congestion since mid-2020. The congestion is generally attributed to import surges triggered by heavy spending on consumer goods during the COVID-19 pandemic. Port congestion has been compounded by the inability of importers to retrieve, receive, and process all the inbound goods they have ordered, resulting in supply chain shortfalls and economic disruption. How can the shipping industry and government organizations predict the end of the current surge and anticipate future surges? Expected seasonal variations in import volume are associated with peak holiday shopping periods; nonseasonal import surges are signaled by other factors. The research goes beyond transportation data sources to examine broader connections between import volume and indicators of economic and retail industry conditions. The strongest and most useful relationship appears to be between retail inventory indicators and containerized import growth. From January 2018 through July 2021, there was a relatively strong negative correlation between retail inventory- and import TEU indices with a 4-month lag (corresponding roughly to the time between import orders and -arrival). In the 2020 to 2021 pandemic period the negative correlation was stronger, again with a 4-month lag. These findings suggest that observers might anticipate import surges after marked, nonseasonal drops in retail inventories, and that import surges are likely to last until target inventory levels are restored. In a broader sense, an awareness of the linkages between consumer demand, retail chain responses, and containerized import volumes could better inform port, freight transportation, and government planning and policy choices.

Interaction Between Information and Communication Technologies and Travel Behavior: Using Behavioral Data to Explore Correlates of the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of information and communication technologies (ICTs) in providing virtual engagement. Planners and engineers must determine whether cities will see reductions in travel demand, given the increasing use of ICTs. Notably, ICTs facilitate online shopping and working from home (WFH). Generally, online shopping may lead to fewer shopping trips; similarly, WFH may reduce work-related trips. However, more WFH has the potential to generate other non-work trips, including shopping trips. To find answers and explore interdependencies, this study integrates pre-pandemic behavioral data with during-pandemic travel data. In our framework, WFH and online shopping are considered together. By harnessing the pre-pandemic 2017 National Household Travel Survey data, this study jointly analyzes the relationships between shopping trips, online shopping, and WFH with a conditional mixed process model that can address unobserved endogeneity and selection bias. The results suggest that, before the pandemic, online shopping was associated with fewer in-person shopping trips while WFH was associated with more shopping trips. The role of socio-demographic, locational, and travel-related factors is also explored. The during-pandemic data and analysis capture how COVID-19 affected travel behavior. Results show that the relationships among the key variables found in the pre-pandemic data are similar but differ in magnitude from during the pandemic. WFH increased from 12% to 61% during COVID-19, admittedly an unusual situation. In the next “new normal,” planners may improve travel demand models by treating WFH explicitly as an alternative to traveling to work in the trip generation and time of day models.