Exploring food system resilience to the global polycrisis in six Asian countries

The world is currently in the midst of a global food crisis brought about and exacerbated by a series of mutually reinforcing shocks to food systems This study investigated the resilience of food systems in six Asian countries (Bangladesh, Kyrgyz Republic, Lao PDR, Pakistan, Philippines, and Sri Lanka) amidst the global 'polycrisis' caused by COVID-19, geopolitical conflicts, and climate change. Trend analyses were performed for 19 indicators sourced from global databases and World Food Programme national data, representing the four domains of food system resilience: exposure to shocks; resilience capacities and agro- and food diversity, resilience responses and strategies; and long-term resilience outcomes. The analysis revealed that all six countries experienced the effects of the 'polycrisis', leading to diverse impacts on exchange rates, with Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Lao PDR facing significant currency depreciation. While most countries increased crop production and decreased food imports during the crisis, government economic support during the pandemic varied widely. Resilience outcomes, including national food price inflation and the proportion of populations facing food insecurity, witnessed upward variations. Overall, countries with higher resilience capacities at the start of the 'polycrisis' showed less severe long-term resilience outcomes. Our findings highlight the varied challenges and resilience capacities across each country, influenced by a complex interplay of economic, political, agricultural, and food affordability factors crucial for determining long-term resilience in their food systems. Recommendations for future research include focusing on resilience assessment in food systems, integrating climate change adaptation measures, and developing early intervention strategies.

Navigating polycrisis: long-run socio-cultural factors shape response to changing climate

Climate variability and natural hazards like floods and earthquakes can act as environmental shocks or socioecological stressors leading to instability and suffering throughout human history. Yet, societies experience a wide range of outcomes when facing such challenges: some suffer from social unrest, civil violence or complete collapse; others prove more resilient and maintain key social functions. We currently lack a clear, generally agreed-upon conceptual framework and evidentiary base to explore what causes these divergent outcomes. Here, we discuss efforts to develop such a framework through the Crisis Database (CrisisDB) programme. We illustrate that the impact of environmental stressors is mediated through extant cultural, political and economic structures that evolve over extended timescales (decades to centuries). These structures can generate high resilience to major shocks, facilitate positive adaptation, or, alternatively, undermine collective action and lead to unrest, violence and even societal collapse. By exposing the ways that different societies have reacted to crises over their lifetime, this framework can help identify the factors and complex social-ecological interactions that either bolster or undermine resilience to contemporary climate shocks. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change adaptation needs a science of culture'.