A critical thermal transition driving spring phenology of Northern Hemisphere conifers

Despite growing interest in predicting plant phenological shifts, advanced spring phenology by global climate change remains debated. Evidence documenting either small or large advancement of spring phenology to rising temperature over the spatio-temporal scales implies a potential existence of a thermal threshold in the responses of forests to global warming. We collected a unique data set of xylem cell-wall-thickening onset dates in 20 coniferous species covering a broad mean annual temperature (MAT) gradient (-3.05 to 22.9°C) across the Northern Hemisphere (latitudes 23°-66° N). Along the MAT gradient, we identified a threshold temperature (using segmented regression) of 4.9 ± 1.1°C, above which the response of xylem phenology to rising temperatures significantly decline. This threshold separates the Northern Hemisphere conifers into cold and warm thermal niches, with MAT and spring forcing being the primary drivers for the onset dates (estimated by linear and Bayesian mixed-effect models), respectively. The identified thermal threshold should be integrated into the Earth-System-Models for a better understanding of spring phenology in response to global warming and an improved prediction of global climate-carbon feedbacks.

Retrospective Analysis of Wood Anatomical Traits Reveals a Recent Extension in Tree Cambial Activity in Two High-Elevation Conifers

The study of xylogenesis or wood formation is a powerful, yet labor intensive monitoring approach to investigate intra-annual tree growth responses to environmental factors. However, it seldom covers more than a few growing seasons, so is in contrast to the much longer lifespan of woody plants and the time scale of many environmental processes. Here we applied a novel retrospective approach to test the long-term (1926-2012) consistency in the timing of onset and ending of cambial activity, and in the maximum cambial cell division rate in two conifer species, European larch and Norway spruce at high-elevation in the Alps. We correlated daily temperature with time series of cell number and lumen area partitioned into intra-annual sectors. For both species, we found a good correspondence (1-10 days offset) between the periods when anatomical traits had significant correlations with temperature in recent decades (1969-2012) and available xylogenesis data (1996-2005), previously collected at the same site. Yet, results for the 1926-1968 period indicate a later onset and earlier ending of the cambial activity by 6-30 days. Conversely, the peak in the correlation between annual cell number and temperature, which should correspond to the peak in secondary growth rate, was quite stable over time, with just a minor advance of 4-5 days in the recent decades. Our analyses on time series of wood anatomical traits proved useful to infer on past long-term changes in xylogenetic phases. Combined with intensive continuous monitoring, our approach will improve the understanding of tree responses to climate variability in both the short- and long-term context.