Strong association between reduction of late-stage cancers and reduction of cancer-specific mortality in meta-regression of randomized screening trials across multiple cancer types

BACKGROUND

Late-stage cancer incidence has been proposed as an early surrogate for mortality in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of cancer screening; however, its validity has not been systematically evaluated across screening RCTs of different cancers.

METHODS

We conducted a meta-regression analysis of cancer screening RCTs that reported both late-stage cancer incidence and cancer mortality. Based on a systematic literature review, we included 33 RCTs of screening programs targeting seven cancer types, including lung (n = 12), colorectal (n = 8), breast (n = 5), and prostate (n = 4), among others. We regressed the relative reduction of cancer mortality on the relative reduction of late-stage cancer incidence, inversely weighted for each RCT by the variance of estimated mortality reduction.

RESULTS

Across cancer types, the relative reduction of late-stage cancer incidence was linearly associated with the relative reduction of cancer mortality. Specifically, we observed this association for lung (R2 = 0.79 and 0.996 in three recent large trials), breast (R2 = 0.94), prostate (R2 = 0.98), and colorectal cancer (R2 = 0.75 for stage III/IV cancers and 0.93 for stage IV cancers). Trials with a 20% or greater reduction in late-stage cancers were more likely to achieve a significant reduction in cancer mortality. Our results also showed that no reduction of late-stage cancer incidence was associated with no or minimal reduction in cancer mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Meta-regression of historical screening RCTs showed a strong linear association between reductions in late-stage cancer incidence and cancer mortality.

Avoiding lead-time bias by estimating stage-specific proportions of cancer and non-cancer deaths

PURPOSE

Understanding how stage at cancer diagnosis influences cause of death, an endpoint that is not susceptible to lead-time bias, can inform population-level outcomes of cancer screening.

METHODS

Using data from 17 US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registries for 1,154,515 persons aged 50-84 years at cancer diagnosis in 2006-2010, we evaluated proportional causes of death by cancer type and uniformly classified stage, following or extrapolating all patients until death through 2020.

RESULTS

Most cancer patients diagnosed at stages I-II did not go on to die from their index cancer, whereas most patients diagnosed at stage IV did. For patients diagnosed with any cancer at stages I-II, an estimated 26% of deaths were due to the index cancer, 63% due to non-cancer causes, and 12% due to a subsequent primary (non-index) cancer. In contrast, for patients diagnosed with any stage IV cancer, 85% of deaths were attributed to the index cancer, with 13% non-cancer and 2% non-index-cancer deaths. Index cancer mortality from stages I-II cancer was proportionally lowest for thyroid, melanoma, uterus, prostate, and breast, and highest for pancreas, liver, esophagus, lung, and stomach.

CONCLUSION

Across all cancer types, the percentage of patients who went on to die from their cancer was over three times greater when the cancer was diagnosed at stage IV than stages I-II. As mortality patterns are not influenced by lead-time bias, these data suggest that earlier detection is likely to improve outcomes across cancer types, including those currently unscreened.

Host genetic variants, Epstein-Barr virus subtypes, and the risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma: Assessment of interaction and mediation

Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) and human leukocyte antigen (HLA) polymorphisms are well-known risk factors for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). However, the combined effects between HLA and EBV on the risk of NPC are unknown. We applied a causal inference framework to disentangle interaction and mediation effects between two host HLA SNPs, rs2860580 and rs2894207, and EBV variant 163364 with a population-based case-control study in NPC-endemic southern China. We discovered the strong interaction effects between the high-risk EBV subtype and both HLA SNPs on NPC risk (rs2860580, relative excess risk due to interaction [RERI] = 4.08, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.03-6.14; rs2894207, RERI = 3.37, 95% CI = 1.59-5.15), accounting for the majority of genetic risk effects. These results indicate that HLA genes and the high-risk EBV have joint effects on NPC risk. Prevention strategies targeting the high-risk EBV subtype would largely reduce NPC risk associated with EBV and host genetic susceptibility.

Potential for Cure by Stage across the Cancer Spectrum in the United States

BACKGROUND

Cure fraction-the proportion of persons considered cured of cancer after long-term follow-up-reflects the total impact of cancer control strategies, including screening, without lead-time bias. Previous studies have not reported stage-stratified cure fraction across the spectrum of cancer types.

METHODS

Using a mixture cure model, we estimated cure fraction across stages for 21 cancer types and additional subtypes. Cause-specific survival for 2.4 million incident cancers came from 17 US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registries for adults 40 to 84 years at diagnosis in 2006 to 2015, followed through 2020.

RESULTS

Across cancer types, a substantial cure fraction was evident at early stages, followed by either a sharp drop from stages III to IV or a steady decline from stages I to IV. For example, estimated cure fractions for colorectal cancer at stages I, II, III, and IV were 62% (95% confidence interval: 59%-66%), 61% (58%-65%), 58% (57%-59%), and 7% (7%-7%), respectively. Corresponding estimates for gallbladder cancer were 50% (46%-54%), 24% (22%-27%), 22% (19%-25%), and 2% (2%-3%). Differences in 5-year cause-specific survival between early-stage and stage IV cancers were highly correlated with between-stage differences in cure fraction, indicating that survival gaps by stage are persistent and not due to lead-time bias.

CONCLUSIONS

A considerable fraction of cancer is amenable to cure at early stages, but not after metastasis.

IMPACT

These results emphasize the potential for early detection of numerous cancers, including those with no current screening modalities, to reduce cancer death.

Oral fungal profiling and risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma: a population-based case-control study

BACKGROUND

Dysbiosis of the oral mycobiome has been linked to some diseases, including cancers. However, the role of oral fungal communities in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) carcinogenesis has not previously been investigated.

METHODS

We characterized the oral salivary fungal mycobiome in 476 untreated incident NPC patients and 537 population-based controls using fungal internal transcribed spacer (ITS)-2 sequencing. The relationship between oral fungal mycobiome and the risk of NPC was assessed through bioinformatic and biostatistical analyses.

FINDINGS

We found that lower fungal alpha diversity was associated with an increased odds of NPC [lower vs. higher: observed features (adjusted odds ratio [OR] = 5.81, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.60-9.38); Simpson diversity (1.53, 1.03-2.29); Shannon diversity (2.03, 1.35-3.04)]. We also observed a significant difference in global fungal community patterns between cases and controls based on Bray-Curtis dissimilarity (P < 0.001). Carriage of oral fungal species, specifically, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, Candida tropicalis, Lodderomyces elongisporus, Candida albicans, and Fusarium poae, was associated with significantly higher odds of NPC, with ORs ranging from 1.56 to 4.66. Individuals with both low fungal and low bacterial alpha diversity had a profoundly elevated risk of NPC.

INTERPRETATION

Our results suggest that dysbiosis in the oral mycobiome, characterized by a loss of fungal community diversity and overgrowth of several fungal organisms, is associated with a substantially increased risk of NPC.

FUNDING

This work was funded by the US National Institutes of Health, the Swedish Research Council, the High-level Talents Research Start-up Project of Fujian Medical University, and the China Scholarship Council.

Multistage carcinogenesis: Impact of age, genetic, and environmental factors on the incidence of malignant mesothelioma

The current paradigm of carcinogenesis as a cellular evolutionary process driven by mutations of a few critical driver genes has immediate logical implications for the epidemiology of cancer. These include the impact of age on cancer risk, the role played by inherited tumor predisposition syndromes, and the interaction of genetics and environmental exposures on cancer risk. In this paper, we explore the following logical epidemiological consequences of carcinogenesis as a clonal process of mutation accumulation, with special emphasis on asbestos-related cancers, specifically malignant mesothelioma:1 All cancers, including mesothelioma, can and do occur spontaneously, i.e., in the absence of exposure to any environmental carcinogens. 2. Age is an important determinant of cancer risk, with or without exposure to environmental carcinogens. 3. Genetic tumor predisposition syndromes, such as the BAP1 syndrome, increase enormously the risk of cancer even in the absence of exposure to environmental carcinogens. We illustrate these concepts by applying a multistage clonal expansion model to U.S. Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results cancer registry data for pleural and peritoneal malignant mesotheliomas in 1975-2018.

EBV antibody and gastric cancer risk: a population-based nested case-control study in southern China

BACKGROUND

We aim to clarify the controversial associations between EBV-related antibodies and gastric cancer risk.

METHODS

We analysed the associations between serological Epstein-Barr nuclear antigen 1 immunoglobulin A (EBNA1-IgA) and viral capsid antigen immunoglobulin A (VCA-IgA) by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and the risk of gastric cancer in a nested case-control study originated from a population-based nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) screening cohort in Zhongshan, a city of southern China, including 18 gastric cancer cases and 444 controls. Conditional logistic regression was used to calculate the odds ratios (ORs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

All the sera of cases were sampled before diagnosis and the median time interval was 3.04 (range: 0.04, 7.59) years. Both increased relative optical density (rOD) values of EBNA1-IgA and VCA-IgA were associated with higher risks of gastric cancer with age adjusted ORs of 1.99 (95%CI: 1.07, 3.70) and 2.64 (95%CI: 1.33, 5.23), respectively. Each participant was further classified as high or medium/low risk based on a combination of two anti-EBV antibody levels. Participants in the high-risk group had substantially higher odds of developing gastric cancer than that in the medium/low risk group with an age adjusted OR of 6.53 (95%CI: 1.69, 25.26).

CONCLUSIONS

Our research reveals positive associations between EBNA1-IgA and VCA-IgA and gastric cancer risk in southern China. We thus postulate that EBNA1-IgA and VCA-IgA might appear to be potential biomarkers for gastric cancer. More research to further validate the results among diverse populations and investigate its underlying biological mechanism is needed.

Surgical resection as a predictor of cancer-specific survival by stage at diagnosis and cancer type, United States, 2006-2015

BACKGROUND

When solid tumors are amenable to definitive resection, clinical outcomes are generally superior to when those tumors are inoperable. However, the population-level cancer survival benefit of eligibility for surgery by cancer stage has not yet been quantified.

METHODS

Using Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results data allowing us to identify patients who were deemed eligible for and received surgical resection, we examined the stage-specific association of surgical resection with 12-year cancer-specific survival. The 12-year endpoint was selected to maximize follow-up time and thereby minimize the influence of lead time bias.

RESULTS

Across a variety of solid tumor types, earlier stage at diagnosis allowed for surgical intervention at a much higher rate than later-stage diagnosis. At every stage, surgical intervention was associated with a substantially higher rate of 12-year cancer-specific survival, with absolute differences of up to 51% for stage I, 51% for stage II, and 44% for stage III cancer, and stage-specific mortality relative risks of 3.6, 2.4, and 1.7, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Diagnosis of solid cancers in early stages often enables surgical resection, which reduces the risk of death from cancer. Receipt of surgical resection is an informative endpoint that is strongly associated with long-term cancer-specific survival at every stage.

Body mass index and body shape before treatment and nasopharyngeal carcinoma prognosis: a population-based patient cohort study in southern China

A concern of reverse causation exists about the association between nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) prognosis and body mass index (BMI) at diagnosis, while the prognostic impact of BMI measured years before diagnosis is unknown. Therefore, we investigated associations of pre-diagnosis and pre-treatment BMI and body shape on NPC mortality. From a population-based patient cohort in southern China between 2010 and 2013, we included 2526 incident NPC cases with prospective follow-up through 2018. We assessed the associations of BMI and body shape at age 20 years, 10 years before diagnosis, and at diagnosis with NPC mortality, combining strategies of stratification and statistical adjustment to minimise reverse causation. We observed 25% lower all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 0.75, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.64-0.89) and 28% lower NPC-specific mortality (HR 0.74, 95% CI: 0.51-1.03) among overweight vs normal-weight NPC cases at diagnosis. Lean body shapes 1 and 2 at diagnosis were associated with 68% and 23% higher all-cause mortality, respectively, compared with normal body shape 3. No effect modification by cancer stage was detected for associations with all-cause or NPC-specific mortality. Associations with BMI and body shape 10 years before diagnosis were similar but attenuated, while body size and shape at age 20 were not associated with mortality. Being overweight at diagnosis decreased mortality, and thinner body shape increased mortality, compared with normal weight/body shape. These associations may be due to poorer nutrition and treatment intolerance, resulting in treatment discontinuation and worse survival outcomes. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Pre-diagnostic anti-EBV antibodies and primary liver cancer risk: a population-based nested case-control study in southern China

BACKGROUND

We aimed to investigate associations between pre-diagnostic anti-Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) antibodies, including interactions with hepatitis B virus (HBV), and risk of primary liver cancer in southern China.

METHODS

In a population-based nested case-control study, we measured pre-diagnostic immunoglobulin A (IgA) against EBV nuclear antigen 1 (EBNA1) and viral capsid antigen (VCA) in 125 primary liver cancer cases and 2077 matched controls. We also explored the interaction between HBV surface antigen (HBsAg) and anti-EBV antibodies.

RESULTS

Participants with positive EBNA1-IgA, positive VCA-IgA or single-positive anti-EBV antibodies had two-fold odds of developing liver cancer, compared with seronegative subjects. The odds ratios (ORs) between the relative optical density of EBNA1-IgA and VCA-IgA and primary cancer, controlling for age and HBsAg, were 1.59 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.17, 2.14) and 1.60 (95% CI: 1.07, 2.41), respectively. Subjects with both HBsAg and anti-EBV antibody seropositivity were at 50-fold increased risk compared with those negative for both biomarkers (OR: 50.67, 95% CI: 18.28, 140.46), yielding a relative excess risk due to interaction of 30.81 (95% CI: 3.42, 114.93).

CONCLUSION

Pre-diagnostic seropositivity for EBNA1-IgA and/or VCA-IgA was positively associated with primary liver cancer risk, especially in combination with HBsAg positivity. EBV may interact with HBV in the development of primary liver cancer, and anti-EBV antibodies might be potential biomarkers for primary liver cancer in this high-risk population.

Systematic literature review of the epidemiology of glyphosate and neurological outcomes

PURPOSE

Human health risk assessments of glyphosate have focused on animal toxicology data for determining neurotoxic potential. Human epidemiological studies have not yet been systematically reviewed for glyphosate neurotoxicity hazard identification. The objective of this systematic literature review was to summarize the available epidemiology of glyphosate exposure and neurological outcomes in humans.

METHODS

As of December 2021, 25 eligible epidemiological studies of glyphosate exposure and neurological endpoints were identified and assessed for five quality dimensions using guidance from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Studies that assessed personal use of glyphosate were prioritized, whereas those assessing indirect exposure (other than personal use) were rated as low quality, since biomonitoring data indicate that indirect metrics of glyphosate exposure almost always equate to non-detectable glyphosate doses.

RESULTS

Overall, the scientific evidence on glyphosate and neurotoxicity in humans is sparse and methodologically limited, based on nine included epidemiological studies of neurodegenerative outcomes (two high quality), five studies of neurobehavioral outcomes (two high quality), six studies of neurodevelopmental outcomes (none high quality), and five studies of other and mixed neurological outcomes (one high quality). The five high-quality studies showed no association between glyphosate use and risk of depression, Parkinson disease, or peripheral nerve conduction velocity. Results were mixed among the eight moderate-quality studies, which did not demonstrate consistent associations with any neurological endpoints or categories. Low-quality studies were considered uninformative about possible neurotoxic effects due primarily to questionable assessments of indirect exposure.

CONCLUSIONS

No association has been demonstrated between glyphosate and any neurological outcomes in humans. To move the state of science forward, epidemiological studies should focus on scenarios involving direct and frequent use of glyphosate while collecting information on validated health outcomes, concomitant agricultural exposures, and relevant personal characteristics.

Considerations towards the better integration of epidemiology into quantitative risk assessment

Environmental epidemiology has proven critical to study various associations between environmental exposures and adverse human health effects. However, there is a perception that it often does not sufficiently inform quantitative risk assessment. To help address this concern, in 2017, the Health and Environmental Sciences Institute initiated a project engaging the epidemiology, exposure science, and risk assessment communities with tripartite representation from government agencies, industry, and academia, in a dialogue on the use of environmental epidemiology for quantitative risk assessment and public health decision making. As part of this project, four meetings attended by experts in epidemiology, exposure science, toxicology, statistics, and risk assessment, as well as one additional meeting engaging funding agencies, were organized to explore incentives and barriers to realizing the full potential of epidemiological data in quantitative risk assessment. A set of questions was shared with workshop participants prior to the meetings, and two case studies were used to support the discussion. Five key ideas emerged from these meetings as areas of desired improvement to ensure that human data can more consistently become an integral part of quantitative risk assessment: 1) reducing confirmation and publication bias, 2) increasing communication with funding agencies to raise awareness of research needs, 3) developing alternative funding channels targeted to support quantitative risk assessment, 4) making data available for reuse and analysis, and 5) developing cross-disciplinary and cross-sectoral interactions, collaborations, and training. We explored and integrated these themes into a roadmap illustrating the need for a multi-stakeholder effort to ensure that epidemiological data can fully contribute to the quantitative evaluation of human health risks, and to build confidence in a reliable decision-making process that leverages the totality of scientific evidence.

Distinct germline genetic susceptibility profiles identified for common non-Hodgkin lymphoma subtypes

Lymphoma risk is elevated for relatives with common non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) subtypes, suggesting shared genetic susceptibility across subtypes. To evaluate the extent of mutual heritability among NHL subtypes and discover novel loci shared among subtypes, we analyzed data from eight genome-wide association studies within the InterLymph Consortium, including 10,629 cases and 9505 controls. We utilized Association analysis based on SubSETs (ASSET) to discover loci for subsets of NHL subtypes and evaluated shared heritability across the genome using Genome-wide Complex Trait Analysis (GCTA) and polygenic risk scores. We discovered 17 genome-wide significant loci (P < 5 × 10-8) for subsets of NHL subtypes, including a novel locus at 10q23.33 (HHEX) (P = 3.27 × 10-9). Most subset associations were driven primarily by only one subtype. Genome-wide genetic correlations between pairs of subtypes varied broadly from 0.20 to 0.86, suggesting substantial heterogeneity in the extent of shared heritability among subtypes. Polygenic risk score analyses of established loci for different lymphoid malignancies identified strong associations with some NHL subtypes (P < 5 × 10-8), but weak or null associations with others. Although our analyses suggest partially shared heritability and biological pathways, they reveal substantial heterogeneity among NHL subtypes with each having its own distinct germline genetic architecture.

A novel causal model for nasopharyngeal carcinoma

The development of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) and its unique geographic distribution have long been attributed to a combination of dietary intake of salt-preserved fish, inherited susceptibility, and early-life infection with the Epstein-Barr virus (EBV). New findings from our large, rigorously designed, population-based case-control study of NPC in southern China have enabled substantial revision of this causal model. Here, we briefly summarize these results and provide an updated model of the etiology of NPC. Our new research identifies two EBV genetic variants that may be causally involved in the majority of NPC in southern China, and suggests the rise of modern environmental co-factors accompanying cultural and economic transformation in NPC-endemic regions. These discoveries can be translated directly into clinical and public health advances, including improvement of indoor air quality and oral health, development of an EBV vaccine, enhanced screening strategies, and improved risk prediction. Greater understanding of the roles of environmental, genetic, and viral risk factors can reveal the extent to which these agents act independently or jointly on NPC development. The history of NPC research demonstrates how epidemiology can shed light on the interplay of genes, environment, and infections in carcinogenesis, and how this knowledge can be harnessed for cancer prevention and control.

A polygenic risk score for nasopharyngeal carcinoma shows potential for risk stratification and personalized screening

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) have the potential to identify individuals at risk of diseases, optimizing treatment, and predicting survival outcomes. Here, we construct and validate a genome-wide association study (GWAS) derived PRS for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC), using a multi-center study of six populations (6 059 NPC cases and 7 582 controls), and evaluate its utility in a nested case-control study. We show that the PRS enables effective identification of NPC high-risk individuals (AUC = 0.65) and improves the risk prediction with the PRS incremental deciles in each population (Ptrend ranging from 2.79 × 10-7 to 4.79 × 10-44). By incorporating the PRS into EBV-serology-based NPC screening, the test's positive predictive value (PPV) is increased from an average of 4.84% to 8.38% and 11.91% in the top 10% and 5% PRS, respectively. In summary, the GWAS-derived PRS, together with the EBV test, significantly improves NPC risk stratification and informs personalized screening.

Influence of Pre-treatment Saliva Microbial Diversity and Composition on Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Prognosis

Background

The human microbiome has been reported to mediate the response to anticancer therapies. However, research about the influence of the oral microbiome on nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) survival is lacking. We aimed to explore the effect of oral microbiota on NPC prognosis.

Methods

Four hundred eighty-two population-based NPC cases in southern China between 2010 and 2013 were followed for survival, and their saliva samples were profiled using 16s rRNA sequencing. We analyzed associations of the oral microbiome diversity with mortality from all causes and NPC.

Results

Within- and between-community diversities of saliva were associated with mortality with an average of 5.29 years follow-up. Lower Faith’s phylogenetic diversity was related to higher all-cause mortality [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR), 1.52 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.06–2.17)] and NPC-specific mortality [aHR, 1.57 (95% CI, 1.07–2.29)], compared with medium diversity, but higher phylogenetic diversity was not protective. The third principal coordinate (PC3) identified from principal coordinates analysis (PCoA) on Bray–Curtis distance was marginally associated with reduced all-cause mortality [aHR, 0.85 (95% CI, 0.73–1.00)], as was the first principal coordinate (PC1) from PCoA on weighted UniFrac [aHR, 0.86 (95% CI, 0.74–1.00)], but neither was associated with NPC-specific mortality. PC3 from robust principal components analysis was associated with lower all-cause and NPC-specific mortalities, with HRs of 0.72 (95% CI, 0.61–0.85) and 0.71 (95% CI, 0.60–0.85), respectively.

Conclusions

Oral microbiome may be an explanatory factor for NPC prognosis. Lower within-community diversity was associated with higher mortality, and certain measures of between-community diversity were related to mortality. Specifically, candidate bacteria were not related to mortality, suggesting that observed associations may be due to global patterns rather than particular pathogens.

Environmental factors for Epstein-Barr virus reactivation in a high-risk area of nasopharyngeal carcinoma: a population-based study

Background

Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) reactivation from latent to lytic infection has been considered as a key step in nasopharyngeal carcinoma oncogenesis. However, epidemiological evidence regarding environmental risk factors for EBV reactivation on a population level remains largely lacking.

Methods

We enrolled 1916 randomly selected adults from the general population of Guangdong and Guangxi, China, from 2010 to 2014. Information on environmental factors was collected via a structured interview. Serum immunoglobulin A antibodies against EBV viral capsid antigen and nuclear antigen 1 were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay to evaluate EBV reactivation status. We used logistic regression to calculate odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the associations of EBV reactivation with various environmental factors.

Results

No associations were observed between EBV reactivation and extensive environmental factors, including alcohol or tea drinking, a history of chronic ear/nose/throat diseases, use of medications or herbs, consumption of salted fish or preserved foods, oral hygiene, sibship structure, and various residential and occupational exposures. Only cigarette smoking was associated with EBV reactivation (current smokers vs never smokers; OR = 1.37; 95% CI = 1.02–1.83), with positive exposure-response trends with increasing intensity, duration, and pack-years of smoking.

Conclusions

Consistent with previous studies, we found an association between cigarette smoking and EBV reactivation. Other examined exposures were not associated with EBV reactivation. These null results could suggest either more complex interactions between exposures and EBV reactivation or a predominant role of host and/or viral genetic variation.

Use of Contrave, Naltrexone with Bupropion, Bupropion, or Naltrexone and Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events: A Systematic Literature Review

Naltrexone/Bupropion extended release (ER; Contrave) is an extended-release, fixed-dose combination medication of naltrexone (8 mg) and bupropion (90 mg) for patients with obesity or overweight with at least one weight-related comorbidity. Obese and overweight patients with or without comorbidities are at increased cardiovascular (CV) risk. Due to the increased CV risk profile in this patient population, this systematic literature review was conducted to assess human studies reporting major adverse CV events (MACE) and other CV events. A priori eligibility criteria included clinical studies (randomized and observational) published from January 1, 2012, to September 30, 2021, with data comparing users of naltrexone/bupropion ER, naltrexone with bupropion, bupropion without naltrexone, or naltrexone without bupropion versus comparator groups (placebo or other treatments), and with sufficient information to determine the frequency of MACE or other CV adverse events by treatment group. Among 2539 English-language articles identified, 70 articles met the eligibility criteria: seven studies of naltrexone/bupropion ER or naltrexone with bupropion, 32 studies of bupropion, and 31 studies of naltrexone. No studies reported an increased risk of MACE among users of naltrexone/bupropion ER, naltrexone with bupropion, or bupropion or naltrexone individually compared with nonusers. One-half of the available studies (n = 35) reported no (zero) CV events and the other half (n = 35) reported that a non-zero frequency of CV events occurred. Four studies reported data on MACE, including three studies of bupropion and one study of naltrexone/bupropion ER. For composite MACE and its components, the difference in proportions between naltrexone/bupropion ER-, bupropion-, or naltrexone-treated patients compared with active comparators or placebo-treated patients did not exceed 2.5%. In conclusion, the available human evidence does not indicate an increased risk of CV events or MACE following use of naltrexone/bupropion ER, naltrexone with bupropion, or the individual components.

Environmental epidemiology and risk assessment: Exploring a path to increased confidence in public health decision-making

Throughout history, environmental epidemiology has proven crucial to identify certain threats to human health and to provide a basis for the development of life-saving public health policies. However, epidemiologists are facing challenges when studying tenuous threats such as environmental exposure to chemicals, whose association with adverse health effects may be difficult to characterize. As a result, epidemiological data can seldom be fully leveraged for quantitative risk assessment and decision-making. Despite two decades of efforts to improve a more systematic integration of human data to evaluate human health risks, assessors still heavily rely on animal data to do so, while epidemiology plays more of a secondary role. Although the need for more and better collaboration between risk assessors and epidemiologists is widely recognized, both fields tend to remain siloed. In 2017, the Health and Environmental Sciences Institute initiated a project engaging the epidemiology, exposure science, and regulatory communities with tripartite representation from regulators, industry, and academia in a dialogue on the use of environmental epidemiology for regulatory decision-making. Several focus groups attended by epidemiology, exposure science, and risk assessment experts were organized to explore incentives and barriers to collaboration, to ultimately bridge the gap between the various disciplines, and to realize the full potential of epidemiological data in risk assessment. Various ideas that have emerged from these meetings could help ensure the better integration of epidemiological data in quantitative risk assessment and contribute to building confidence in a robust and science-based regulatory decision-making process.

Ranitidine Use and Risk of Upper Gastrointestinal Cancers

BACKGROUND

The discovery that ranitidine is contaminated with N-nitrosodimethylamine, a suspected human carcinogen, raises the hypothesis of a gastrointestinal carcinogenic effect; however, evidence remains inconclusive.

METHODS

We used the nationwide Danish Prescription Registry to identify a cohort of incident ranitidine users and two active comparator cohorts comprising users of other histamine-2 receptor blockers (H2RB) and users of proton pump inhibitors (PPI). All Danish adults with a first prescription of ranitidine, other H2RBs, or PPIs in 1996 through 2008 were followed virtually completely through 2018 for incidence of esophageal, stomach, liver, and pancreatic cancers. We used Cox regression with propensity-score weighting to calculate hazard ratios and 10-year cumulative risk with 95% confidence intervals.

RESULTS

We ascertained 276 newly diagnosed esophageal, 342 stomach, 133 hepatocellular, and 517 pancreatic cancers among ranitidine users during follow-up (median 14 years). In comparison with use of other H2RBs or PPIs, we found no consistent evidence of increased HRs or excess 10-year cumulative risk of any upper gastrointestinal cancer following ranitidine use. We observed no association after restriction to subjects with at least 5 or 10 prescriptions or those with 10 prescriptions and at least 10 years of follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

Our large prospective study using high-quality prescription and cancer incidence data, with two active comparator groups, provides no compelling evidence that ranitidine increases the risk of upper gastrointestinal cancers.

IMPACT

Our results, which do not support any carcinogenic effect on esophagus, stomach, liver or pancreas, should be reassuring for millions of concerned past users of ranitidine.

A comprehensive risk score for effective risk stratification and screening of nasopharyngeal carcinoma

Using Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)-based markers to screen populations at high risk for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is an attractive preventive approach. Here, we develop a comprehensive risk score (CRS) that combines risk effects of EBV and human genetics for NPC risk stratification and validate this CRS within an independent, population-based dataset. Comparing the top decile with the bottom quintile of CRSs, the odds ratio of developing NPC is 21 (95% confidence interval: 12-37) in the validation dataset. When combining the top quintile of CRS with EBV serology tests currently used for NPC screening in southern China, the positive prediction value of screening increases from 4.70% (serology test alone) to 43.24% (CRS plus serology test). By identifying individuals at a monogenic level of NPC risk, this CRS approach provides opportunities for personalized risk prediction and population screening in endemic areas for the early diagnosis and secondary prevention of NPC.