Cause-specific mortality in a population-level cohort of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma following chemotherapy in the early 21st century

Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) is a severe non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. Life expectancy has improved with rituximab, but cause-specific mortality data is lacking. Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to study 27,449 individuals aged 20-74 years diagnosed with primary DLBCL who received chemotherapy between 2000 and 2019, we calculated standardized mortality rate (SMR) and excess absolute risk (EAR) and examined the connection between age, sex, time after diagnosis, and cause of death. Based on 12,205 deaths, 68.7% were due to lymphoma, 20.1% non-cancer causes, and 11.2% other cancers. Non-cancer mortality rates (SMR 1.2; EAR, 21.5) increased with DLBCL compared to the general population. The leading non-cancer death causes were cardiovascular (EAR, 22.6; SMR, 1.6) and infectious (EAR, 9.0; SMR, 2.9) diseases with DLBCL. Risks for non-cancer death and solid neoplasms are highest within the first diagnosis year, then decrease. Among socioeconomic factors, being white, being married, and having a higher income were favorable factors for reducing non-cancer mortality. To improve survival, close surveillance, assessment of risk factors, and early intervention are needed.

Avoiding lead-time bias by estimating stage-specific proportions of cancer and non-cancer deaths

PURPOSE

Understanding how stage at cancer diagnosis influences cause of death, an endpoint that is not susceptible to lead-time bias, can inform population-level outcomes of cancer screening.

METHODS

Using data from 17 US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registries for 1,154,515 persons aged 50-84 years at cancer diagnosis in 2006-2010, we evaluated proportional causes of death by cancer type and uniformly classified stage, following or extrapolating all patients until death through 2020.

RESULTS

Most cancer patients diagnosed at stages I-II did not go on to die from their index cancer, whereas most patients diagnosed at stage IV did. For patients diagnosed with any cancer at stages I-II, an estimated 26% of deaths were due to the index cancer, 63% due to non-cancer causes, and 12% due to a subsequent primary (non-index) cancer. In contrast, for patients diagnosed with any stage IV cancer, 85% of deaths were attributed to the index cancer, with 13% non-cancer and 2% non-index-cancer deaths. Index cancer mortality from stages I-II cancer was proportionally lowest for thyroid, melanoma, uterus, prostate, and breast, and highest for pancreas, liver, esophagus, lung, and stomach.

CONCLUSION

Across all cancer types, the percentage of patients who went on to die from their cancer was over three times greater when the cancer was diagnosed at stage IV than stages I-II. As mortality patterns are not influenced by lead-time bias, these data suggest that earlier detection is likely to improve outcomes across cancer types, including those currently unscreened.

Acanthosis nigricans - a potentially useful clue to the presence of significant occult disease at autopsy

A 19-year-old male was found dead in his apartment. At autopsy he was morbidly obese (Body mass index; BMI - 40.5) with multiple areas of velvety pigmented thickening of the skin in folds around the neck, in the axillae, in the inframammary regions, over the anterior waistline and groin regions and over the dorsal aspects of the feet. These had the typical appearance of acanthosis nigricans. Internal examination revealed aspiration of gastric contents into the airways. Vitreous humour biochemistry showed markedly elevated levels of both glucose (62.9 mmol/L) and β-hydroxybutyrate (13.54 mmol/L). Death was, therefore, due to aspiration pneumonia complicating diabetic ketoacidosis on a background of morbid obesity. The initial indicator of underlying diabetes, in conjunction with obesity had been acanthosis nigricans.

Factors related to longevity and mortality of dogs in Italy

Besides its translational value, an improved understanding of dog longevity and mortality is necessary to guide health management decisions, breed selection, and improve dog welfare. In order to analyse the lifespan of dogs in Italy, identify the most common causes of death, and evaluate possible risk factors, anonymised medical records were collected from 9 veterinary teaching hospitals and 2 public health institutions. Data regarding breed, sex, neuter status, age, diagnosis, and mechanism of death were retrieved. Cause of death (COD) was classified by pathophysiologic process (PP) and organ system (OS). Of the 4957 dogs that died between 2004 and 2020 included in the study, 2920 (59.0%) were purebred, 2293 (46.2%) were female, 3005 (60.6%) were intact, 2883 (58.2%) were euthanised. Overall median longevity was 10.0 years. Median longevity was significantly longer for crossbreds, females, neutered dogs, and small-sized breeds. The breeds with the highest median age at death were the Yorkshire terrier, English cocker spaniel, West Highland white terrier, Italian volpino, and Shih Tzu, whilst the American bulldog, English bulldog, American pit bull terrier, Bernese mountain dog and the Maremma and the Abruzzes sheepdog had the lowest median age at death. The most frequent COD by PP was neoplasia (34.0%), which occurred more frequently in large breeds, namely German shepherd, Labrador retriever and Boxer. Degenerative diseases mostly affected small-sized dogs like Miniature pinscher and Dachshund. Regarding the OS involved, diseases of the renal/urinary system were most frequently responsible for COD (15.0%), prevalently degenerative and inflammatory/infectious. Substantial variation in median longevity according to causes of death by PP and OS was observed. These data are relevant for breeders, veterinary practitioners, and owners, to assist breed selection, facilitate early diagnosis, guide choice when purchasing a purebred dog and making health management decisions, and ultimately improve dog welfare.

Multicausal analysis of mortality due to diabetes mellitus in Spain, 2016-2018

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to assess multicausal mortality due to diabetes from 2016-2018 in Spain. Specific objectives were to quantify the occurrence of diabetes as an underlying cause or as any registered cause on the death certificate.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A cross-sectional descriptive study taking a multicausal approach.

RESULTS

Diabetes appears as an underlying cause of 2.3% of total deaths in Spain, and as any cause in 6.2%. In patients in whom Diabetes appears as an underlying cause on the death certificates, the 15 most frequent immediate causes are cardiovascular diseases in men(prevalence ratio 1,59)and women (PR1,31). In men, the causes associated with diabetes as any cause were skin diseases(prevalence ratio 1.33), followed by endocrine diseases(prevalence ratio 1.26)and genitourinary diseases (prevalence ratio1.14). In women, the causes associated with the presence of diabetes as any cause were endocrine (prevalence ratio 1.13)and genitourinary (prevalence ratio 1.04)diseases.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients in whom diabetes appears as an underlying cause on the death certificates, the 15 most frequent immediate causes are cardiovascular diseases. In men, the causes associated with the presence of diabetes as any cause of death are skin, endocrine and genitourinary diseases. In women, the causes associated with diabetes as any cause are endocrine and genitourinary.

Mortality in childhood-onset type 1 diabetes mellitus with onset between 1959 and 1996: A population-based study in Hokkaido, Japan

Aim

To examine the mortality rate and causes of death in childhood-onset type 1 diabetes in Japan.

Methods

For a median 36.7 years, we followed 391 patients under the age of 15 years who developed type 1 diabetes between 1959 and 1996. We calculated the mortality rate per 100,000 person-years and the standardised mortality ratio (SMR) according to risk factors.

Results

The mortality rates and SMRs were 823 and 8.8 with onset during 1959-1979, 370 and 5.9 with onset during 1980-1989, and 133 and 3.2 with onset during 1990-1996, respectively. The mortality rates and SMRs were 359 and 8.4 in men, and 235 and 6.0 in women. Mortality rates and SMRs were 452 and 7.3 in patients with diabetes onset before puberty and 514 and 6.3 in patients with onset after puberty. The main causes of death with shorter disease duration were sudden death, accident/suicide, and acute diabetic complications. With a more than 30-year disease duration, the main causes of death were end-stage renal disease and cardiovascular disease.

Conclusions

This cohort study revealed a decrease in the mortality rate between 1959-1979 and 1990-1996 in patients with childhood-onset type 1 diabetes in Japan. Patients with onset after puberty had a higher mortality rate than those with onset before puberty.

Improving state medicolegal death investigation: Does system level reform improve public health data concerning drug-related mortality?

In the United States, the governance of unnatural death certification varies greatly by state. Although cross-sectional research has linked mortality data quality with variation in medicolegal death investigation systems across states-especially with regards to drug-related deaths-this relationship has not be sufficiently tested using longitudinal data. This research assesses the impact of system governance reform on the quality of drug mortality data by assessing the impact of transitioning from a coroner system to a medical examiner system on data quality. The research finds no evidence that system-level reform is associated with improved drug-related mortality data quality. These findings suggest that alternative methods should be examined for improving public health data concerning drug-related mortality. These likely include focusing on individual-level characteristics and practices of officials and offices, rather than system-level variables.

Shedding light on the hidden methamphetamine abuse: a nation-wide 7-year post-mortem study in Taiwan

BACKGROUND

The number of methamphetamine-related deaths has been increasing in recent decades. However, current data primarily rely on a few large-scale national surveys, highlighting the need for diverse data sources. Post-mortem studies offer advantages that compensate for the limitations of cohort studies. In this study, we aimed to (1) examine mortality rates and years of potential life lost, (2) compare proportionate mortality with previous cohort studies, and (3) quantitatively investigate causes of death as potential risk factors associated with each manner of death.

METHODS

We analyzed 740 cases from 2013 to 2019 in Taiwan.

RESULTS

The mean age of cases was 38.4 years, with a notable loss of 30s years of potential life, and 79.6% were male. The crude mortality rate was 0.45 per 100,000 person-years. The proportionate mortality indicated that autopsy dataset, compared to cohort studies, provided more accurate estimations for accidental deaths, equivalent suicides, underestimated natural deaths, and overestimated homicides. Accidental deaths were evident in 67% of cases with 80% attributed to drug intoxication. Multiple substances were detected in 61% of cases, with psychiatric medications detected in 43% of cases. Higher methamphetamine concentrations and a greater proportion of multiple substances and benzodiazepines were detected in suicidal deaths. Among accidental deaths, traffic accidents (7.9%) were the second most common cause, particularly motorcycle riders.

CONCLUSIONS

Using autopsy dataset as a secondary source, we identified that over half of the cases involved accidental drug intoxication. The significant proportion of cases involving multiple substances, psychiatric medications, and drug-impaired driving raises concerning.

Beyond the virus: Examining the impact of COVID-19 on violent fatalities

INTRODUCTION

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on various aspects of society, including crime rates. In Serbia, it is important to examine the changes in violent deaths before and during the pandemic to inform public health and safety policies.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We conducted a retrospective, epidemiological, cross-sectional analytical study of medico-legal autopsies in the Department of Forensic Medicine and Toxicology at the University Clinical Center of Kragujevac. Our study sample comprises all forensic autopsy cases examined from January 2017 to December 2019 (151 cases), labeled as "Before," and from January 2020 to December 2022 (192 cases), labeled as "During" the pandemic period. Natural deaths, skeletal remains, and undetermined cases were excluded from our sample.

RESULTS

The data show an increase in the total number of incidents reported from 152 in the "Before" period to 191 in the "During" period. The proportion of incidents involving males remained relatively stable at around 70%, while the proportion of incidents involving females increased. There was no statistically significant change in the proportion of incidents classified as accidental, while the proportion of incidents classified as homicide and suicide increased. The results show a statistically significant association between gender and incident type for both the "Before" and "During" periods. Deaths due to domestic violence have increased by 22.2% during the pandemic, which is cause for concern. In terms of demographic characteristics, males and younger individuals were more likely to be victims of violent deaths both before and during the pandemic.

CONCLUSIONS

The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on violent deaths in the Šumadija region (Central Serbia), with an overall increase in the number of violent deaths and a major impact on deaths due to domestic violence. Policies to address domestic violence should be prioritized during the pandemic and beyond, and strategies should be developed to mitigate the effects of future pandemics or lockdowns.

Sepsis and underlying comorbidities in intensive care unit patients : Analysis of the cause of death by different clinicians-a pilot study

BACKGROUND

There is an ongoing debate as to whether death with sepsis is primarily caused by sepsis or, more often, by the underlying disease. There are no data on the influence of a researcher's background on such an assessment. Therefore, the aim of this analysis was to assess the cause of death in sepsis and the influence of an investigator's professional background on such an assessment.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We performed a retrospective observational cohort study of sepsis patients treated in the medical intensive care unit (ICU) of a tertiary care center. For deceased patients, comorbidities and severity of illness were documented. The cause of death (sepsis or comorbidities or both combined) was independently assessed by four assessors with different professional backgrounds (medical student, senior physician in the medical ICU, anesthesiological intensivist, and senior physician specialized in the predominant comorbidity).

RESULTS

In all, 78 of 235 patients died in hospital. Agreement between assessors about cause of death was low (κ 0.37, 95% confidence interval 0.29-0.44). Depending on the assessor, sepsis was the sole cause of death in 6-12% of cases, sepsis and comorbidities in 54-76%, and comorbidities alone in 18-40%.

CONCLUSIONS

In a relevant proportion of patients with sepsis treated in the medical ICU, comorbidities contribute significantly to mortality, and death from sepsis without relevant comorbidities is a rare event. Designation of the cause of death in sepsis patients is highly subjective and may be influenced by the professional background of the assessor.

Mortality rate and causes of death in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma

PURPOSE

Papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) has an excellent prognosis; however, some PTMCs exhibit poor outcomes. Cancer-specific death from PTMC has been rarely reported, so we aimed to evaluate mortality rates and causes of death in patients who died with PTMC.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed 8969 PTMC patients treated at Samsung Medical Center from 1994 to 2017. Mortality rate and causes of death in PTMC patients were evaluated and compared with those of 7873 patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) > 1 cm. In addition, we reviewed previous publications reporting cancer-specific deaths from PTMC.

RESULTS

Among the 8969 PTMC patients, 107 (1.2%) patients died. Only two (0.02%) patients have died of PTMC, which was less than the cancer-specific deaths from PTC > 1 cm (0.71%). Among the deceased PTMC patients, 63 (58.9%) died of other malignancies, three (2.8%) died of cardiovascular diseases, and five (4.7%) died of other diseases. Compared with PTC > 1 cm, cancer-specific deaths was less (1.9% vs. 15.1%, P < 0.001), and deaths from other malignancies were higher in deceased PTMC patients (58.9% vs. 30.5%, P < 0.001). According to 18 studies, PTMC-specific mortality rates ranged from 0.05% to 14.3%, and 336 cancer-specific deaths (0.43%) occurred among 78,770 PTMC patients.

CONCLUSION

The cancer-specific mortality rate of PTMC patients was extremely low (0.02%). More than half of deceased PTMC patients died of other malignancies, which was significantly more than those with PTC > 1 cm. These results support that active surveillance can be selected as a therapeutic option for PTMC.

Modern suicide trend from internet

INTRODUCTION

The most common suicide methods vary slightly from country to country, partly related to the availability of effective means. Societal development over the years and especially the advent of the Internet has enabled the sudden spread of new suicide methods. Recently, especially since 2019, intentional sodium nitrite poisoning has appeared on many social networks as an increasingly popular method of suicide.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

There was performed a retrospective-prospective study of the autopsy protocols of the Medico-Legal Departments of the Healthcare Surveillance Authority in Slovakia, in a period of 15 years (2008-2022). We performed the analysis of cases of death due to nitrite poisoning, focusing on cases of intentional self-harm. In all selected cases, we present complete information, including photo documentation from the place of death, as well as the results of the performed autopsy and the results of additional laboratory examinations.

RESULTS

We did not record any fatal cases of unintentional, accidental consumption of sodium nitrite in Slovakia, nor any fatal cases of homicidal poisoning by this substance. However, there were three cases of intentional self-harm (completed suicide) by sodium nitrite poisoning (in 2019, 2020 and 2022).

CONCLUSIONS

The correct diagnosis of the cases of sodium nitrite poisoning deaths is possible only based on evaluating all the information obtained, a thorough examination of the body and the crime scene, and the correct interpretation of the findings found during a subsequent autopsy and the results of the toxicological analysis.

Commentary on "Fatal cardiac air embolism after CT-guided percutaneous needle lung biopsy: medical complication or medical malpractice?"

To differentiate between medical malpractice and expected, but rare, medical complication in a medicolegal autopsy context is often difficult. Such an assessment requires knowledge about the clinical practice associated with the procedure at hand, and that findings of the autopsy, including medical relevant information such as patient chart, radiological imaging, and statements from witnesses about the medical procedure itself, provides evidence that substantiate either conclusion. In a case report published in the journal such an assessment is discussed by presenting findings and circumstances surrounding the death of a patient during a percutaneous needle lung biopsy procedure. The authors conclude that the death was not due to medical malpractice. However, in this commentary it is highlighted that the reasoning behind the conclusion needs to be further substantiated.

Exploring the impact of traumatic injury on mortality: An analysis of the certified cause of death within one year of serious injury in the Scottish population

BACKGROUND

Few studies effectively quantify the long-term incidence of death following injury. The absence of detailed mortality and underlying cause of death data results in limited understanding and a potential underestimation of the consequences at a population level. This study takes a nationwide approach to identify the one-year mortality following injury in Scotland, evaluating survivorship in relation to pre-existing comorbidities and incidental causes of death.

STUDY DESIGN

This retrospective cohort study assessed the one-year mortality of adult trauma patients with an Injury Severity Score ≥ 9 during 2020 using the Scottish Trauma Audit Group (STAG) registry linked to inpatient hospital data and death certificate records. Patients were divided into three groups: trauma death, trauma-contributed death, and non-trauma death. Kaplan-Meier curves were used for survival analysis to evaluate mortality, and cox proportional hazards regression analysed risk factors linked to death.

RESULTS

4056 patients were analysed with a median age 63 years (58-88) and male predominance (55.2 %). Falls accounted for 73.1 % of injuries followed by motor vehicle accidents (16.3 %) and blunt force (4.9 %). Extremity was the most commonly injured region overall followed by chest and head. However, head injury prevailed in those who died. The registry demonstrated a one-year mortality of 19.3 % with 55 % deaths occurring post-discharge. Of all deaths reported, 35.3 % were trauma deaths, and 47.7 % were trauma-contributed deaths. These groups accounted for over 70 % of mortality within 30 days of hospital admission and continued to represent the majority of deaths up to 6 months post-injury. Patients who died after 6 months were mainly the result of non-traumatic causes, frequently circulatory, neoplastic, and respiratory diseases (37.7 %, 12.3 %, 9.1 %, respectively). Independent risk factors for one-year mortality included a GCS ≤ 8, modified Charlson Comorbidity score >5, Injury Severity Score >25, serious head injury, age and sex.

CONCLUSION

With a one-year mortality of 19.3 %, and post-discharge deaths higher than previously appreciated, patients can face an extended period of survival uncertainty. As mortality due to index trauma lasted up to 6 months post-admission, short-term outcomes fail to represent trauma burden and so cogent survival predictions should be avoided in clinical and patient settings.

On the measurement of cause of death inequality

BACKGROUND

Attempts at assessing heterogeneity in countries' mortality profiles often rely on measures of cause of death (CoD) diversity. Unfortunately, such indicators fail to take into consideration the degree of (dis)similarity among pairs of causes (e.g. 'transport injuries' and 'unintentional injuries' are implicitly assumed to be as dissimilar as 'transport injuries' and 'Alzheimer's disease')－an unrealistic and unduly restrictive assumption.

DEVELOPMENT

We extend diversity indicators proposing a broader class of heterogeneity measures that are sensitive to the similarity between the causes of death one works with. The so-called 'CoD inequality' measures are defined as the average expected 'dissimilarity between any two causes of death'. A strength of the approach is that such measures are decomposable, so that users can assess the contribution of each cause to overall CoD heterogeneity levels-a useful property for the evaluation of public health policies.

APPLICATION

We have applied the method to 15 low-mortality countries between 1990 and 2019, using data from the Global Burden of Disease project. CoD inequality and CoD diversity generally increase over time across countries and sex, but with some exceptions. In several cases (notably, Finland), both indicators run in opposite directions.

CONCLUSIONS

CoD inequality and diversity indicators capture complementary information about the heterogeneity of mortality profiles, so they should be analysed alongside other population health metrics, such as life expectancy and lifespan inequality.

Automated detection of fatal cerebral haemorrhage in postmortem CT data

During the last years, the detection of different causes of death based on postmortem imaging findings became more and more relevant. Especially postmortem computed tomography (PMCT) as a non-invasive, relatively cheap, and fast technique is progressively used as an important imaging tool for supporting autopsies. Additionally, previous works showed that deep learning applications yielded robust results for in vivo medical imaging interpretation. In this work, we propose a pipeline to identify fatal cerebral haemorrhage on three-dimensional PMCT data. We retrospectively selected 81 PMCT cases from the database of our institute, whereby 36 cases suffered from a fatal cerebral haemorrhage as confirmed by autopsy. The remaining 45 cases were considered as neurologically healthy. Based on these datasets, six machine learning classifiers (k-nearest neighbour, Gaussian naive Bayes, logistic regression, decision tree, linear discriminant analysis, and support vector machine) were executed and two deep learning models, namely a convolutional neural network (CNN) and a densely connected convolutional network (DenseNet), were trained. For all algorithms, 80% of the data was randomly selected for training and 20% for validation purposes and a five-fold cross-validation was executed. The best-performing classification algorithm for fatal cerebral haemorrhage was the artificial neural network CNN, which resulted in an accuracy of 0.94 for all folds. In the future, artificial neural network algorithms may be applied by forensic pathologists as a helpful computer-assisted diagnostics tool supporting PMCT-based evaluation of cause of death.

The Mortality of the Spanish Flu and COVID-19 in The Netherlands: a Historical Comparison

The COVID-19 pandemic has been called the deadliest disease event in history. In this study, we compared the cause specific mortality of the Spanish flu (1918-1920) with the cause specific mortality of COVID-19 (2020-2022) in the Netherlands. During the period of exposure, around 50,000 people died from COVID-19 and 32,000 people from the Spanish flu. In absolute numbers, COVID-19 seems to be deadlier than Spanish flu. However, the crude mortality rates of COVID-19 and Spanish flu were respectively 287 and 486 per 100,000 inhabitants. Compared by an age standardized mortality, there would have been 28 COVID-19 and 194 Spanish flu related deaths in 1918-1920, or there would have been 214 Spanish flu and 98 COVID-19 related deaths in 2020-2022 per 100,000 inhabitants per year. Thus, taking the population differences into account, the Spanish flu would have been deadlier than COVID-19.

The impact of COVID-19 on life expectancy across socioeconomic groups in Denmark

BACKGROUND

Denmark was one of the few countries that experienced an increase in life expectancy in 2020, and one of the few to see a decrease in 2021. Because COVID-19 mortality is associated with socioeconomic status (SES), we hypothesize that certain subgroups of the Danish population experienced changes in life expectancy in 2020 and 2021 that differed from the country overall. We aim to quantify life expectancy in Denmark in 2020 and 2021 by SES and compare this to recent trends in life expectancy (2014-2019).

METHODS

We used Danish registry data from 2014 to 2021 for all individuals aged 30+. We classified the study population into SES groups using income quartiles and calculated life expectancy at age 30 by year, sex, and SES, and the differences in life expectancy from 2019 to 2020 and 2020 to 2021. We compared these changes to the average 1-year changes from 2014 to 2019 with 95% confidence intervals. Lastly, we decomposed these changes by age and cause of death distinguishing seven causes, including COVID-19, and a residual category.

RESULTS

We observed a mortality gradient in life expectancy changes across SES groups in both pandemic years. Among women, those of higher SES experienced a larger increase in life expectancy in 2020 and a smaller decrease in 2021 compared to those of lower SES. Among men, those of higher SES experienced an increase in life expectancy in both 2020 and 2021, while those of lower SES experienced a decrease in 2021. The impact of COVID-19 mortality on changes in life expectancy in 2020 was counterbalanced by improvements in non-COVID-19 mortality, especially driven by cancer and cardiovascular mortality. However, in 2021, non-COVID-19 mortality contributed negatively even for causes as cardiovascular mortality that has generally a positive impact on life expectancy changes, resulting in declines for most SES groups.

CONCLUSIONS

COVID-19 mortality disproportionally affected those of lower SES and exacerbated existing social inequalities in Denmark. We conclude that in health emergencies, particular attention should be paid to those who are least socially advantaged to avoid widening the already existing mortality gap with those of higher SES. This research contributes to the discussion on social inequalities in mortality in high-income countries.

Territorial gaps on quality of causes of death statistics over the last forty years in Spain

BACKGROUND

The quality of the statistics on causes of death (CoD) does not present consolidated indicators in literature further than the coding group of ill-defined conditions of the International Classification of Diseases. Our objective was to assess the territorial quality of CoD by reliability of the official mortality statistics in Spain over the years 1980-2019.

METHODS

A descriptive epidemiological design of four decades (1980-, 1990-, 2000-, and 2010-2019) by region (18) and sex was implemented. The CoD cases, age-adjusted rates and ratios (to all-cause) were assigned by reliability to unspecific and ill-defined quality categories. The regional mortality rates were contrasted to the Spanish median by decade and sex by the Comparative Mortality Ratio (CMR) in a Bayesian perspective. Statistical significance was considered when the CMR did not contain the value 1 in the 95% credible intervals.

RESULTS

Unspecific, ill-defined, and all-cause rates by region and sex decreased over 1980-2019, although they scored higher in men than in women. The ratio of ill-defined CoD decreased in both sexes over these decades, but was still prominent in 4 regions. CMR of ill-defined CoD in both sexes exceeded the Spanish median in 3 regions in all decades. In the last decade, women's CMR significantly exceeded in 5 regions for ill-defined and in 6 regions for unspecific CoD, while men's CMR exceeded in 4 and 2 of the 18 regions, respectively on quality categories.

CONCLUSIONS

The quality of mortality statistics of causes of death has increased over the 40 years in Spain in both sexes. Quality gaps still remain mostly in Southern regions. Authorities involved might consider to take action and upgrading regional and national death statistics, and developing a systematic medical post-grade training on death certification.

Chagas disease deaths detected among garbage codes registered in mortality statistics in Brazil: a study from the buRden of ChAgas dISEase in the contemporary world (RAISE) project

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study was to identify Brazil's most critical garbage codes (GCs) reclassified to Chagas disease (ChD) in mortality data and their proportions. We also estimated the potential impact of misclassification on the number of deaths attributed to ChD.

STUDY DESIGN

Population-based descriptive study.

METHODS

We used the Mortality Information System (SIM; in Portuguese) data before and after routine GC investigation in 2015-2019 to evaluate ChD deaths detected among them. We identified priority GCs, which contributed more than 0.1 % to the percentage of total ChD deaths registered. Spearman's correlation was used to evaluate the association between the reclassification of priority GCs and ChD prevalence. Then, we applied the GC correction factors to estimate the number of deaths attributed to ChD.

RESULTS

22,154 deaths were reported as ChD in the study period. Among them, 1004 deaths originally listed as priority GCs were deaths reclassified to ChD after an investigation in the SIM final database. Unspecific cardiomyopathy (10.2 %), unspecific heart diseases (4.7 %), and heart failure (2.8 %) were GCs with the highest proportions of reclassification to ChD in Brazil. Higher ChD prevalence at the state level was associated with a higher proportion of GC deaths reclassified as ChD. When applying correction factors identified after investigation, we estimated an increase of 26.4 % in registered ChD deaths, mostly in states with higher endemicity.

CONCLUSIONS

GCs might conceal deaths due to ChD, particularly in Brazil's states with higher endemicity. The approach suggested in this study may offer an alternative method for estimating ChD-related deaths in endemic countries.

Factors associated with medico-legal autopsy of decedents with psychiatric disorders

INTRODUCTION

Autopsy rates are declining worldwide, resulting in increasing selectivity in referral for forensic autopsy and increased uncertainty about the validity of assigned causes of death. Persons with psychiatric disorders have high rates of premature death but not all are referred for forensic autopsies. Knowledge is needed on which decedents with psychiatric disorders are chosen for forensic autopsy to determine whether causes of death are at risk of being misclassified among certain subgroups of decedents.

METHODS

We conducted a nationwide register-based case-control study including all decedents with psychiatric disorders in Denmark in the period 1998-2015. Using multivariate logistic regression, we examined associations between demographic and socioeconomic factors, comorbidities, healthcare utilization, and referral for forensic autopsy, overall and stratified by age at death (<45, 45-64, ≥65 years).

RESULTS

Of the 152,799 decedents in the study population, 7043 (4.61 %) had a forensic autopsy. Decedents referred for forensic autopsy were more likely to be young, have a history of substance use, and have schizophrenia or an affective disorder (factors listed in diminishing order of strength of association). Increasing severity of comorbidities as measured by the Charlson comorbidity index was associated with decreasing likelihood of being autopsied. Patterns of association with sex, alcohol use, habitation and education did not vary by age at death. Schizophrenia and drug use were most strongly associated with forensic autopsy in decedents < 45 years of age, whereas death early in the study period was more strongly associated with autopsy in the oldest age groups.

DISCUSSION

The decision to refer a decedent for forensic autopsy was predominantly based on the decedent's age, history of drug use, and the absence of non-psychiatric comorbidities. Causes of death in decedents with comorbidities or recent contact with the healthcare system and decedents > 65 years may be more likely to be inaccurate, particularly in drug users.

Comparison of Vital Status, Cause of Death, and Follow-Up after Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation in Linked Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research and California Cancer Registry Data, 1991 to 2018

Assessing outcomes following hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) poses challenges due to the necessity for systematic and often prolonged patient follow-up. Linking the HCT database of the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research (CIBMTR) with cancer registry data may improve long-term outcome ascertainment, but the reliability of mortality data in death certificates from cancer registries among HCT recipients remains unknown. We compared the classification of vital status and primary cause of death (COD), as well as the length of follow-up between the CIBMTR and California Cancer Registry (CCR) to assess the possibility of supplementing the CIBMTR with cancer registry data. This retrospective study leveraged a linked CIBMTR-CCR dataset. We included patients who were California residents at the time of HCT and received a first allogeneic (allo) or autologous (auto) HCT for a hematologic malignancy diagnosed during 1991-2016. Follow-up was through 2018. We analyzed 18,450 patients (alloHCT, n = 8232; autoHCT, n = 10,218). The Vital status agreement was 97.7% for alloHCT and 97.2% for autoHCT. Unknown COD was higher in CIBMTR (12.9%) than in CCR (1.6%). After excluding patients with unknown COD information, the overall agreement of primary COD (cancer versus noncancer) was 53.7% for alloHCT and 83.2% for autoHCT. This agreement was lower within the first 100 days post-HCT (alloHCT, 31.0%; autoHCT, 54.6%). Compared with CIBMTR, deaths due to cancer were higher in CCR (alloHCT, 90.0%; autoHCT, 90.1% versus alloHCT, 47.3%; autoHCT, 82.5% in CIBMTR). CIBMTR reports more frequently noncancer-related deaths, including graft-versus-host disease and infections. The cumulative incidence of cancer-specific mortality at 20 years differed, particularly for alloHCT (CCR, 53.7%; CIBMTR, 27.6%). The median follow-up among alive patients was longer in CCR (alloHCT, 6.0 years; autoHCT, 4.7 years) than in CIBMTR (alloHCT, 5.0 years; autoHCT, 3.8 years). Our findings highlight the completeness of vital status data in CIBMTR but reveal substantial disagreement in primary COD. Consequently, caution is required when interpreting HCT studies that use only death certificates to estimate cause-specific mortality outcomes. Improving the accuracy of COD registration and follow-up completeness by developing communication pathways between cancer registries and hospital-based cohorts may enhance our understanding of late effects and long-term outcomes among HCT survivors.

Anaphylaxis as probable cause of death in a rare case of fatal Vipera berus bite

This case report describes the death of a 52-year-old male who was bitten by a venomous snake, Vipera berus (common European adder), on his left wrist. Despite experiencing symptoms, the patient refused medical care and self-medicated with alcohol instead. He was later found dead in his residence. Autopsy and histological examination revealed evidence of an anaphylactic reaction in response to the snake bite, with additional findings of alcohol intoxication and other underlying medical conditions.

Excess non-COVID-19 mortality in Norway 2020-2022

BACKGROUND

Causes of death other than COVID-19 seem to contribute significantly to the excess mortality observed during the 2020-2022 pandemic. In this study, we explore changes in non-COVID-19 causes of death in Norway during the COVID-19 pandemic from March 2020 to December 2022.

METHODS

We performed a population-based cross-sectional study on data from the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry. All recorded deaths from 1st January 2010 to 31st December 2022 were included. The main outcome measures were the number of deaths and age-standardised death rate (ASMR) per 100000 population from the major cause of death groups in 2020, 2021 and 2022. The predicted number of deaths and ASMRs were forecasted with a 95% prediction interval constructed from a general linear regression model based on the corresponding number of deaths and rates from the preceding ten prepandemic years (2010-2019). We also examined whether there were deviations from expected seasonality in the pandemic period based on prepandemic monthly data from 2010-2019. The cumulative number of deaths and ASMR were estimated based on monthly mortality data.

RESULTS

There was significant excess mortality (number of deaths) in 2021 and 2022 for all causes (3.7% and 14.5%), for cardiovascular diseases (14.3% and 22.0%), and for malignant tumours in 2022 (3.5%). In terms of ASMR, there was excess mortality in 2021 and 2022 for all causes (2.9% and 13.7%), and for cardiovascular diseases (16.0% and 25,8%). ASMR was higher than predicted in 2022 for malignant tumours (2.3%). There were fewer deaths than predicted from respiratory diseases (except COVID-19) in 2020 and 2021, and from dementia in 2021 and 2022. From March 2020 to December 2022, there were cumulatively 3754 (ASMR 83.8) more non-COVID-19 deaths than predicted, of which 3453 (ASMR: 79.6) were excess deaths from cardiovascular disease, 509 (ASMR 4.0) from malignant tumours. Mortality was lower than predicted for respiratory diseases (-1889 (ASMR: -44.3)), and dementia (-530 (ASMR -18.5)).

CONCLUSIONS

There was considerable excess non-COVID-19 mortality in Norway from March 2020 until December 2022, mainly due to excess cardiovascular deaths. For respiratory diseases and dementia, mortality was lower than predicted.

Mortality in patients with schizophrenia in Japan

PURPOSE

Patients with schizophrenia have a higher mortality risk than the general population. However, no recent studies have investigated mortality in patients with schizophrenia in Japan. Therefore, we conducted a retrospective study to evaluate excess mortality and risk factors for mortality in patients with schizophrenia in Japan.

METHODS

We included patients diagnosed with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder at Yamanashi Prefectural Kita Hospital between January 1, 2013, and December 31, 2017. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were used to compare mortality rates between patients with schizophrenia and the general population. Logistic regression analysis was performed to estimate risk factors associated with mortality.

RESULTS

Of the 1,699 patients with schizophrenia (893 men and 806 women), 104 (55 men and 49 women) died during the study period. The all-cause SMR (95% confidence interval [CI]) was 2.18 (1.76-2.60); the natural- and unnatural-cause SMRs were 2.06 (1.62-2.50) and 5.07 (2.85-7.30), respectively. Men (adjusted odds ratio [OR] = 2.24, 95% CI = 1.10-4.56), age (adjusted OR = 1.12, 95% CI = 1.09-1.16), and barbiturate use (adjusted OR = 8.17, 95% CI = 2.07-32.32) were associated with the risk of mortality.

CONCLUSION

The mortality rate remains high in patients with schizophrenia in Japan. Further studies are needed to evaluate mortality trends in this population.

Time Trends in Causes of Death in People with HIV: Insights from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Advancements in access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care have led to a decline in acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)-related deaths among people with HIV (PWH) in Switzerland. However, data on the ongoing changes in causes of death among PWH over the past 15 years is scarce.

METHODS

We investigated all reported deaths in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study between 2005-2022. Causes of death were categorized using the Coding Causes of Death in HIV protocol. The statistical analysis included demographic stratification to identify time trends and logistic regression models to determine associated factors for the underlying cause of death.

RESULTS

In total, 1630 deaths were reported, with 23.7% of individuals assigned female at birth. Out of these deaths, 147 (9.0%) were HIV/AIDS-related, 373 (22.9%) due to non-AIDS, non-hepatic (NANH) cancers, 166 (10.2%) liver-related, and 158 (9.7%) cardiovascular-related. The median age at death increased from 45.0 [40.0,53.0] years in 2005-2007 to 61.0 [56.0,69.5] years in 2020-2022. HIV/AIDS and liver-related causes of death decreased, whereas deaths from NANH cancers increased, and cardiovascular-related deaths remained relatively stable.

CONCLUSION

The proportionally decreasing HIV/AIDS and liver-related deaths showcase the effectiveness of ART, comprehensive HIV patient care, and interventions targeting hepatitis C virus co-infection. Future research should focus on managing cancer and cardiovascular-related conditions as the new leading causes of death among PWH. Comprehensive healthcare strategies focusing on non-AIDS-related comorbidities, cancer management, and sustaining liver and cardiovascular health are needed to bridge the ongoing health disparities between PWH and the general population.

Postmortem injury evaluation using the Forensic Injury Severity Score Template (FISST): a preliminary study

The Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) and Injury Severity Score (ISS) are important evaluation tools used in clinical practice to determine the degree of injury in patients with trauma. However, they are not suitable for forensic practice and their use in forensic applications is limited. This study aimed to present a system that can objectively and quantitatively determine the severity of postmortem injuries and that can be applied to forensic medicine. Subsequently, we applied this system to individual postmortem cases and analyzed the injuries identified during autopsy. We performed a retrospective study of 119 autopsies performed between 2018 and 2021. Data were categorized and analyzed using the Forensic Injury Severity Score Template (FISST), a scoring system developed based on the AIS and ISS. The mean FISST scores were as follows: men, 53.6; women, 46.8; 20-65 years old, 55.6; older than 65 years, 41.4; natural death, 13.8; unnatural death, 66.3; and all deaths, 51.8. Statistically significant differences in the FISST scores were found between natural and unnatural deaths, suicidal and accidental deaths, and trauma-related death subtypes. Injuries identified during autopsy can be objectively and quantitatively evaluated using FISST. We suggest that FISST is a useful tool in forensic medicine because it is tailor-made for injury evaluation from a postmortem perspective.

Effects of inappropriate cause-of-death certification on mortality from cardiovascular disease and diabetes mellitus in Tonga

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes mellitus are major health issues in Tonga and other Pacific countries, although mortality levels and trends are unclear. We assess the impacts of cause-of-death certification on coding of CVD and diabetes as underlying causes of death (UCoD).

METHODS

Tongan records containing cause-of-death data (2001-2018), including medical certificates of cause-of-death (MCCD), had UCoD assigned according to International Classification of Diseases 10th revision (ICD-10) coding rules. Deaths without recorded cause were included to ascertain total mortality. Diabetes and hypertension causes were reallocated from Part 1 of the MCCD (direct cause) to Part 2 (contributory cause) if potentially fatal complications were not recorded, and an alternative UCoD was assigned. Proportional mortality by cause based on the alternative UCoD were applied to total deaths then mortality rates calculated by age and sex using census/intercensal population estimates. CVD and diabetes mortality rates for unaltered and alternative UCoD were compared using Poisson regression.

RESULTS

Over 2001-18, in ages 35-59 years, alternative CVD mortality was higher than unaltered CVD mortality in men (p = 0.043) and women (p = 0.15); for 2010-18, alternative versus unaltered measures in men were 3.3/103 (95%CI: 3.0-3.7/103) versus 2.9/103 (95%CI: 2.6-3.2/103), and in women were 1.1/103 (95%CI: 0.9-1.3/103) versus 0.9/103 (95%CI: 0.8-1.1/103). Conversely, alternative diabetes mortality rates were significantly lower than the unaltered rates over 2001-18 in men (p < 0.0001) and women (p = 0.013); for 2010-18, these measures in men were 1.3/103 (95%CI: 1.1-1.5/103) versus 1.9/103 (95%CI: 1.6-2.2/103), and in women were 1.4/103 (95%CI: 1.2-1.7/103) versus 1.7/103 (95%CI: 1.5-2.0/103). Diabetes mortality rates increased significantly over 2001-18 in men (unaltered: p < 0.0001; alternative: p = 0.0007) and increased overall in women (unaltered: p = 0.0015; alternative: p = 0.014).

CONCLUSIONS

Diabetes reporting in Part 1 of the MCCD, without potentially fatal diabetes complications, has led to over-estimation of diabetes, and under-estimation of CVD, as UCoD in Tonga. This indicates the importance of controlling various modifiable risks for atherosclerotic CVD (including stroke) including hypertension, tobacco use, and saturated fat intake, besides obesity and diabetes. Accurate certification of diabetes as a direct cause of death (Part 1) or contributory factor (Part 2) is needed to ensure that valid UCoD are assigned. Examination of multiple cause-of-death data can improve understanding of the underlying causes of premature mortality to better inform health planning.

Prevalence of Multiple Causes of Death Within Young and Middle-Aged People Experiencing Sudden Cardiac Arrest

BACKGROUND

Multiple causes of death are increasingly reported, particularly in older populations. Rates of multiple causes of young sudden death have not been quantified.

METHOD

The End Unexplained Cardiac Death (EndUCD) registry was utilised to identify cases of young sudden death (aged 1-50 years) referred for forensic assessment from April 2019 to April 2022. Causes of death were coded according to whether one or more underlying causes of death were identified. Patients were compared according to the number of causes of death, with significant predictors assessed using logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

1,085 cases of sudden death were identified. 263 (24.2%) cases had more than one competing cause of their sudden death. The most common multi-causal associations identified were dual non-cardiac causes of the sudden death (n=68), cardiomyopathy with non-cardiac event (n=64) and coronary artery disease with non-cardiac cause (n=63). Multi-causal death was more common in those undergoing comprehensive autopsy examination (95.8% vs 77.6%, p<0.0001), and in the setting of higher body mass index (median 31.3 kg/m2 vs 29.9 kg/m2, p=0.01), older age (44.3 years vs 41.4 years, p<0.0001), non-ventricular cardiac arrest rhythm (93.2% vs 87.3%, p=0.009), and smoking (22.8% vs 14.2%, p=0.001). The strongest predictor of multiple pathologies was comprehensive autopsy examination compared with external inspection, full-body post-mortem computed tomography and review of ancillary documentation and investigations (odds ratio 6.49, 95% confidence interval 3.47-12.14).

CONCLUSIONS

One-quarter of young sudden deaths have more than one underlying cause, highlighting the value of comprehensive investigations including autopsy. Awareness of the complexity of young sudden death is important, along with multidisciplinary involvement to ensure all contributors to death are identified.

Hospitalization and hospital mortality rates during the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Quebec: interrupted time series and decomposition analysis

OBJECTIVES

We investigated hospitalization and hospital mortality rates by cause during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Quebec, Canada.

STUDY DESIGN

Interrupted time series and decomposition analysis.

METHODS

We analyzed hospital mortality during the first (February 25-August 22, 2020) and second waves (August 23, 2020-March 31, 2021), compared with 2019. We identified the cause of death and examined trends using: 1) interrupted time series analysis; 2) log-binomial regression; and 3) decomposition of cause-specific mortality.

RESULTS

Hospitalization rates decreased; however, the proportion of deaths increased from 27.0 per 1000 in 2019 to 35.0 per 1000 in the first wave, for an excess of 8.0 deaths per 1000 admissions. COVID-19 was the cause of a third of excess deaths (2.6 per 1000). Other drivers of excess deaths included respiratory conditions (1.6 deaths per 1000), circulatory disorders (0.6 deaths per 1000), and cancer (0.9 deaths per 1000). COVID-19 was the cause of 58% of excess deaths in the second wave. Interrupted time series regression indicated that the proportion of deaths increased at the outset of the first wave but returned to prepandemic levels before increasing again in the second wave. Compared with 2019, the first wave was associated with 1.31 times (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.28-1.33) and the second wave with 1.17 times (95% CI 1.15-1.19) the risk of death during hospitalization.

CONCLUSIONS

The pandemic was associated with a greater risk of hospital mortality. Excess deaths were driven by COVID-19 but also other causes, including respiratory conditions, circulatory disorders, and cancer.

Cause of death and the autopsy rate in an elderly population

Autopsy rates are declining, while major discrepancies between autopsies and clinical diagnoses remain. Still, little is known about the impact of suspected underlying diseases, for example, a diagnosis of cancer, on the autopsy rate. The aim of this study was to investigate the relation between the clinical cause of death, a history of cancer, and the medical autopsy rate using data from the Netherlands Cohort Study on Diet and Cancer (NLCS), a large prospective cohort study with a long follow-up. The NLCS is a prospective study initiated in 1986 and includes 120,852 persons (58,279 males and 62,573 females), 55-69 years of age at the time of enrollment. The NLCS was linked with the Dutch Nationwide Pathology Databank (PALGA), the Dutch Population Register (GBA), the Netherlands Cancer Registry, and the causes of death registry (Statistics Netherlands). If applicable, the 95% confidence intervals were calculated. During the follow-up of the NLCS, 59,760 deaths were recorded by linkage with the GBA from 1991 until 2009. Of these, a medical autopsy was performed on 3736 deceased according to linkage with PALGA, resulting in an overall autopsy rate of 6.3%. Major variations in the autopsy rate were observed according to the cause of death. The autopsy rate increased according to the number of contributing causes of death. Lastly, a diagnosis of cancer affected the autopsy rate. The clinical cause of death and a history of cancer both influenced the medical autopsy rate in a large national cohort. The insight this study provides may help clinicians and pathologists counteracting the further downfall of the medical autopsy.

Impact of cancer on the prevalence, management, and outcome of patients with chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension

INTRODUCTION

Chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH) results from unresolved thrombotic obstruction of the pulmonary vasculature. Cancer is a known risk factor for CTEPH. This study aimed to determine the impact of cancer on the prevalence, management, and outcomes of patients with CTEPH.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In this retrospective study involving 99 patients sequentially diagnosed with CTEPH in our hospital, the prevalence of 10 comorbid conditions including a past history of cancer at the time of CTEPH diagnosis were calculated.

RESULTS

Among the 99 patients, 17 (17%) had a history of cancer. Breast cancer (n = 6) was the most common cancer type, followed by gastrointestinal cancer (n = 3), uterine cancer (n = 2), and malignant lymphoma (n = 2). Between patients with and without cancer, there were no differences in the demographics, severity of CTEPH, and management; however, the 5-year survival rate was lower for patients with cancer (65%) than for those without (89%). In addition, patients with cancer had significantly worse survival than those without (p = 0.03 by log-rank test). During follow-up, nine patients developed cancer after the diagnosis of CTEPH. Among the 99 patients, 13 died during follow-up, 6 (46%) of whom died of cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

17% of our patients with CETPH were diagnosed with cancer, with breast and gastrointestinal tract cancers being the most common. Cancer comorbidity was associated with a poor prognosis and contributed to death in 46% of deceased patients. The impact of cancer on CTEPH should be further evaluated in the future.

Self-reported walking pace and 10-year cause-specific mortality: A UK biobank investigation

OBJECTIVE

To investigate associations of self-reported walking pace (SRWP) with relative and absolute risks of cause-specific mortality.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In 391,652 UK Biobank participants recruited in 2006-2010, we estimated sex- and cause-specific (cardiovascular disease [CVD], cancer, other causes) mortality hazard ratios (HRs) and 10-year mortality risks across categories of SRWP (slow, average, brisk), accounting for confounders and competing risk. Censoring occurred in September 30, 2021 (England, Wales) and October 31, 2021 (Scotland).

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 12.6 years, 22,413 deaths occurred. In women, the HRs comparing brisk to slow SRWP were 0.74 (95% CI: 0.67, 0.82), 0.40 (0.33, 0.49), and 0.29 (0.26, 0.32) for cancer, CVD, and other causes of death, respectively, and 0.71 (0.64, 0.78), 0.38 (0.33, 0.44), and 0.29 (0.26, 0.32) in men. Compared to CVD, HRs were greater for other causes (women: 39.6% [6.2, 72.9]; men: 31.6% [9.8, 53.5]) and smaller for cancer (-45.8% [-58.3, -33.2] and - 45.9% [-54.8, -36.9], respectively). For all causes in both sexes, the 10-year mortality risk was higher in slow walkers, but varied across sex, age, and cause, resulting in different risk reductions comparing brisk to slow: the largest were for other causes of death at age 75 years [women: -6.8% (-7.7, -5.8); men: -9.5% (-10.6, -8.4)].

CONCLUSION

Compared to slow walkers, brisk SRWP was associated with reduced cancer (smallest reduction), CVD, and other (largest) causes of death and may therefore be a useful clinical predictive marker. As absolute risk reductions varied across age, cause, and SRWP, certain groups may particularly benefit from interventions to increase SRWP.

Premature mortality risk in individuals with convulsive epilepsy: Results from a longitudinal, prospective, population-based study

OBJECTIVE

To assess premature mortality and identify associated risk factors among individuals with convulsive epilepsy in resource-poor settings using a longitudinal, prospective, population-based approach.

METHOD

The study recruited people with convulsive epilepsy who underwent assessment and management of epilepsy at primary healthcare centers in rural Northwest China, including newly diagnosed individuals and previously identified prevalent cases. All participants were confirmed to have epilepsy by neurologists according to strict criteria and were followed up monthly by primary care physicians. Demographic data and cause of death (COD) were obtained from death certificates or verbal autopsies conducted by neurologists, following the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Edition. The standardized mortality ratio (SMR) and proportionate mortality ratio (PMR) for each cause of death were estimated using the Cause-Of-Death Surveillance Dataset of China (2020). Survival analysis was used to identify risk factors associated with all-cause mortality and death directly due to epilepsy.

RESULTS

During 5.9 years of follow-up with 40,947 person-years, there were 781 (11.2%) deaths among 6967 participants. The risk of premature death in people with convulsive epilepsy was 2.7-fold higher than that in the general population. Young participants had a significantly higher risk (standardized mortality ratio 26.5-52.5) of premature death. The proportionate mortality ratio was higher for cerebrovascular disease (15%), sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP) (13.4%), cardiovascular disease (11.7%), status epilepsy (SE) (11.3%), and epilepsy-related accidents (14.0%) than other premature mortality cause of deaths. Additionally, the highest standardized proportional mortality ratio (SPMR) was observed from drowning in all cause of death (10.4, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 7.6-13.8), followed by burning (9.0, 95% CI: 3.7-18.9). Factors that increased the risk of all-cause mortality included male sex, late age of onset, short disease duration, high body mass index, monotherapy, and the frequency of generalized tonic-clonic seizures (GTCS). High frequency of generalized tonic-clonic seizures (> 3 attacks in the last year) was an independent risk factor for premature death directly due to epilepsy (including sudden unexpected death in epilepsy, status epilepsy, and epilepsy-related accidents), while early age of onset (≤ 14 years) and long duration of epilepsy (> 20 years) were independent risk factors for sudden unexpected death in epilepsy. In addition, short duration of epilepsy (≤ 20 years) was an independent risk factor for status epilepsy.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated that individuals with poorly controlled seizures are more likely to experience premature death, with most deaths being epilepsy-related and preventable. These findings underline the importance of effective seizure treatment and the potential impact on reducing premature mortality among people with convulsive epilepsy.

Transitioning from the "Three Delays" to a focus on continuity of care: a qualitative analysis of maternal deaths in rural Pakistan and Mozambique

BACKGROUND

The Three Delays Framework was instrumental in the reduction of maternal mortality leading up to, and during the Millennium Development Goals. However, this paper suggests the original framework might be reconsidered, now that most mothers give birth in facilities, the quality and continuity of the clinical care is of growing importance.

METHODS

The paper explores the factors that contributed to maternal deaths in rural Pakistan and Mozambique, using 76 verbal autopsy narratives from the Community Level Interventions for Pre-eclampsia (CLIP) Trial.

RESULTS

Qualitative analysis of these maternal death narratives in both countries reveals an interplay of various influences, such as, underlying risks and comorbidities, temporary improvements after seeking care, gaps in quality care in emergencies, convoluted referral systems, and arrival at the final facility in critical condition. Evaluation of these narratives helps to reframe the pathways of maternal mortality beyond a single journey of care-seeking, to update the categories of seeking, reaching and receiving care.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a need to supplement the pioneering "Three Delays Framework" to include focusing on continuity of care and the "Four Critical Connection Points": (1) between the stages of pregnancy, (2) between families and health care workers, (3) between health care facilities and (4) between multiple care-seeking journeys.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT01911494, Date Registered 30/07/2013.

Determination of causes of adult deaths using minimally invasive tissue sampling in Gandaki province of Nepal: a multicenter hospital-based study

BACKGROUND

Minimally Invasive Tissue Sampling (MITS) has been successfully used to establish the cause of death in low- and middle-income countries, mostly in stillbirths and neonates. The objective of this study was to determine the causes of death among adults using MITS in the Gandaki province of Nepal and to find out the contribution of MITS to identify the causes of death.

METHODS

A multicentric hospital-based pilot study was conducted to enroll 100 cases of adult deaths. The specimens of cerebrospinal fluid, blood, brain, lungs, and liver tissue were collected utilizing MITS. These specimens underwent standard histopathological, serological, and microbiological analyses. The findings from MITS, and if available, clinical records and forensic autopsy findings were compiled and the cause of death panel identified the causes of death. The final cause of death allocated to each case was based on the WHO International Medical Certificate of Death.

RESULTS

Among a total of 100 cases enrolled during the study period, infectious cause attributed to the immediate cause of death in 77 (77%), cardiovascular in 10 (10%), neurological in 8 (8%), malignancy in two (2%), and gastrointestinal and hepatobiliary cause in one (1%) case. The mean age of the cases was 50.8 ± 15.9 years and 76 (76%) were males. MITS established the cause of death in the causal chain of events in 81(81%) cases and identified the cause of death significantly more with infectious than non-infectious causes (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

MITS was useful in establishing the cause of death in the majority of adult deaths and the most common cause was infectious disease. Our findings suggest that MITS can be a valuable and alternative tool for mortality surveillance in low-resource settings, where complete diagnostic autopsies are less accepted or less prioritized.

Essence of postmortem computed tomography for in-hospital deaths: what clinical radiologists should know

Postmortem computed tomography (CT) is an essential tool for investigating the causes of death. Postmortem CT has characteristic imaging findings and should not be interpreted in the same manner as clinical antemortem images. In analyzing the cause of death in in-hospital death cases using postmortem images, it is crucial to understand early postmortem and post-resuscitation changes. In addition, it is essential to understand the limitations of diagnosing the cause of death or significant pathology relating to death on non-contrast-enhanced postmortem CT. In Japan, there has also been social demand to establish a system for postmortem imaging at the time of death. To facilitate such a system, clinical radiologists should be prepared to interpret postmortem images and assess the cause of death. This review article provides comprehensive information regarding unenhanced postmortem CT for in-hospital death cases in daily clinical practice in Japan.

Outcomes of adult native liver survivors with biliary atresia: the current situation in Japan

PURPOSE

This study aimed to elucidate the difficulties faced by adult native liver survivors with biliary atresia (BA) in Japan.

METHODS

A single-center, retrospective, observational study of 57 adult patients with BA was conducted. The clinical course of BA was compared between native liver survivors and non-survivors who reached adulthood. Indications and outcomes of liver transplantation (LT) among non-survivors were assessed.

RESULTS

A significantly larger portion of non-survivors (n = 10) met the criteria for LT (p < 0.001) and received treatment for portal hypertension after reaching 20 years of age (p < 0.01) compared with the survivors. Causes of death included liver cirrhosis (n = 8), graft failure of living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) (n = 1), and hepatocarcinoma (n = 1). Two of the non-survivors who died of liver cirrhosis had no indication for LT because of alcohol dependence and uncontrolled infection. An appropriate donor candidate could not be found for the five patients who opted for LDLT. All six patients waitlisted for deceased donor liver transplantation (DDLT) died after a median waiting period of 17 months.

CONCLUSION

Adult BA patients in Japan have limited options for LT, mainly owing to low donor candidate availability for LDLT and a low prevalence of DDLT.

Cause of Death estimation from Verbal Autopsies: Is the Open Response redundant or synergistic?

Civil registration and vital statistics systems capture birth and death events to compile vital statistics and to provide legal rights to citizens. Vital statistics are a key factor in promoting public health policies and the health of the population. Medical certification of cause of death is the preferred source of cause of death information. However, two thirds of all deaths worldwide are not captured in routine mortality information systems and their cause of death is unknown. Verbal autopsy is an interim solution for estimating the cause of death distribution at the population level in the absence of medical certification. A Verbal Autopsy (VA) consists of an interview with the relative or the caregiver of the deceased. The VA includes both Closed Questions (CQs) with structured answer options, and an Open Response (OR) consisting of a free narrative of the events expressed in natural language and without any pre-determined structure. There are a number of automated systems to analyze the CQs to obtain cause specific mortality fractions with limited performance. We hypothesize that the incorporation of the text provided by the OR might convey relevant information to discern the CoD. The experimental layout compares existing Computer Coding Verbal Autopsy methods such as Tariff 2.0 with other approaches well suited to the processing of structured inputs as is the case of the CQs. Next, alternative approaches based on language models are employed to analyze the OR. Finally, we propose a new method with a bi-modal input that combines the CQs and the OR. Empirical results corroborated that the CoD prediction capability of the Tariff 2.0 algorithm is outperformed by our method taking into account the valuable information conveyed by the OR. As an added value, with this work we made available the software to enable the reproducibility of the results attained with a version implemented in R to make the comparison with Tariff 2.0 evident.

An audit of autopsy-confirmed diagnostic errors in perinatal deaths: What are the most common major missed diagnoses

Perinatal autopsies are essential to establish the cause of stillbirth or neonatal death and improve clinical practice. Limited studies have provided detailed major missed diagnoses of perinatal deaths in current clinical practice. In this retrospective audit of 177 perinatal autopsies including 99 stillbirths and 78 neonatal deaths with complete pathologic evaluation, 66 cases (21 Class I and 45 Class II diagnostic errors) were revealed as major discrepancies (37.3%), with complete agreements in 80 cases (45.2%). The difference in major discrepancies between stillbirth and neonatal death groups was significant (P < 0.001), with neonatal deaths being more prone to Class I errors. Various respiratory diseases (25/66, 37.9%) and congenital malformations (16/66, 24.2%) accounted for the majority of missed diagnoses (41/66, 62.1%). More importantly, neonatal respiratory distress syndrome (NRDS) was the most common type I missed diagnosis (7/8, 87.5%), markedly higher than the average 11.9% of all Class I errors. Our findings suggest that there are high disparities between clinical diagnoses and autopsy findings in perinatal deaths, and that various respiratory diseases are mostly inclined to cause major diagnostic errors. We first demonstrated that NRDS is the most common type I missed diagnosis in perinatal deaths, which clinicians should pay special attention to in practice.

[Cardiac implantable electric devices in forensic medicine : Overview from the forensic and cardiology perspective]

In 2021, about 75,000 persons in Germany died unnaturally or due to unexplained reasons. As a consequence, there are difficulties in more precisely identifying the time, cause and circumstances of death. Nevertheless, clarification is crucial not only from the clinical perspective, but these data are of considerable importance in the context of investigative procedures as they can be used to answer numerous legally relevant questions. Cardiac implantable devices (CIED) are of vital importance in the treatment of cardiac arrhythmias. In 2020 about 100,000 patients underwent CIED implantation in Germany. Therefore, CIED are present in a relevant proportion of the deceased mentioned above. The valuable source of information represented by postmortal CIED interrogation has been shown in numerous studies. Nevertheless, postmortal CIED interrogation is not routinely performed in the context of forensic medical examinations for reasons of practicability. This article summarizes benefits and limitations of postmortal CIED interrogation from the perspective of forensic medicine and cardiology and gives a recommendation for realization.

Investigating years of life lost in Belgium, 2004-2019: A comprehensive analysis using a probabilistic redistribution approach

INTRODUCTION

Information on years of life lost (YLL) due to premature mortality is instrumental to assess the fatal impact of disease and necessary for the calculation of Belgian disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). This study presents a novel method to reallocate causes of death data.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Causes of death data are provided by Statistics Belgium (Statbel). First, the specific ICD-10 codes that define the underlying cause of death are mapped to the GBD cause list. Second, ill-defined deaths (IDDs) are redistributed to specific ICD-10 codes. A four-step probabilistic redistribution was developed to fit the Belgian context: redistribution using predefined ICD codes, redistribution using multiple causes of death data, internal redistribution, and redistribution to all causes. Finally, we used the GBD 2019 reference life table to calculate Standard Expected Years of Life Lost (SEYLL).

RESULTS

In Belgium, between 2004 and 2019, IDDs increased from 31 to 34% of all deaths. The majority was redistributed using predefined ICD codes (14-15%), followed by the redistribution using multiple causes of death data (10-12%). The total number of SEYLL decreased from 1.83 to 1.73 million per year. In 2019, the top cause of SEYLL was lung cancer with a share of 8.5%, followed by ischemic heart disease (8.1%) and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (5.7%). All results are available in an online tool https://burden.sciensano.be/shiny/mortality2019/ .

CONCLUSION

The redistribution process assigned a specific cause of death to all deaths in Belgium, making it possible to investigate the full mortality burden for the first time. A large number of estimates were produced to estimate SEYLL by age, sex, and region for a large number of causes of death and every year between 2004 and 2019. These estimates are important stepping stones for future investigations on Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) in Belgium.

Epidemiological analysis of death among patients on maintenance hemodialysis: results from the beijing blood purification quality Control and Improvement Center

BACKGROUND

China has the largest number of patients on maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) worldwide. Despite continuous improvements in hemodialysis techniques, patients on MHD have a higher mortality rate than the general population. Understanding the characteristics of death in this population can better promote clinical practice, thereby improving patients' survival.

METHODS

We collected demographic and clinical data for patients on MHD registered in the Beijing Blood Purification Quality Control and Improvement Center database from 2014 to 2020. The annual mortality rate was calculatedand the primary cause of end-stage renal disease (ESRD), dialysis vintage, and cause of death among deceased patients were analyzed.

RESULTS

(1) 24,363 patients on MHD were included, of which 6,065 patients died from 2014 to 2020. The annual mortality rate fluctuated between 7.4% and 8.0%. The median age of death was 70.0 (60.8-79.0) years and the male to female ratio was 1.27:1 (2). The top three primary causes of ESRD in deceased patients were chronic glomerulonephritis (CGN), diabetic nephropathy (DN), and hypertensive nephropathy (HN). Comparison of the annual mortality rate showed DN > HN > CGN (3). The median dialysis vintage of deceased patients was 3.7 (1.8-6.9) years, which slowly increased annually. Patients with diabetes had a shorter dialysis vintage than patients without diabetes (3.4 vs. 4.1 years, Z = 8.3, P < 0.001) (4). The major causes of death were cardiovascular disease (20.2%), sudden death (18.1%), infection (17.9%), and cerebrovascular disease (12.6%). Proportions of death from cardiovascular disease, infection, and sudden death were higher in patients with diabetes (22.2%, 20.2%, and 20.0%) than patients without diabetes (18.4%, 15.8%, and 16.3%). Sudden death was the leading cause of death in young (18-44 years; 27.0%) and middle aged (45-64 years; 20.8%) patients, whereas infection was the leading cause of death in patients aged ≥ 75 years (24.5%).

CONCLUSION

The annual mortality rate of patients on MHD in Beijing was relatively stable from 2014 to 2020. Sudden death was more likely to occur in young and middle-aged patients, and more patients aged ≥ 75 years died from infections.

Clinicopathologic discordance-a not unexpected occurrence

Disagreements between clinical and forensic interpretations of post-mortem findings are sometimes influenced by prior experiences with particular patient cohorts. While patients who present clinically have characteristic indicators of disease (thus enabling diagnosis), symptoms and signs may not have been manifested by those who die suddenly and unexpectedly and present for medicolegal assessment. Thus, the determination of likely or possible lethal mechanisms requires an understanding of occult disease processes and idiosyncratic responses that may be very different from case to case. Summaries of cases should be undertaken with an awareness of the limitations of individual knowledge and may be augmented by collaboration and pooling of expertise.

Clustering of the causes of death in Northeast Iran: a mixed growth modeling

BACKGROUND

Processing and analyzing data related to the causes of mortality can help to clarify and monitor the health status, determine priorities, needs, deficiencies, and developments in the health sector in research and implementation areas. In some cases, the statistical population consists of invisible sub-communities, each with a pattern of different trends over time. In such cases, Latent Growth Mixture Models (LGMM) can be used. This article clusters the causes of individual deaths between 2015 and 2019 in Northeast Iran based on LGMM.

METHOD

This ecological longitudinal study examined all five-year mortality in Northeast Iran from 2015 to 2019. Causes of mortality were extracted from the national death registration system based on the ICD-10 classification. Individuals' causes of death were categorized based on LGMM, and similar patterns were placed in one category.

RESULTS

Out of the total 146,100 deaths, ischemic heart disease (21,328), malignant neoplasms (17,613), cerebrovascular diseases (11,924), and hypertension (10,671) were the four leading causes of death. According to statistical indicators, the model with three classes was the best-fit model, which also had an appropriate interpretation. In the first class, which was also the largest class, the pattern of changes in mortality due to diseases was constant (n = 98, 87.50%). Second-class diseases had a slightly upward trend (n = 10, 8.92%), and third-class diseases had a completely upward trend (n = 4, 3.57%).

CONCLUSIONS

Identifying the rising trends of diseases leading to death using LGMM can be a suitable tool for the prevention and management of diseases by managers and health policy. Some chronic diseases are increasing up to 2019, which can serve as a warning for health policymakers in society.

When Is Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy with a Defibrillator Indicated in Patients with Heart Failure, Especially Elderly Patients?

One benefit of an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator is the prevention of sudden cardiac death (SCD). It is recommended for patients with a low left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). However, the choice of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) with or without a defibrillator (CRT-D and CRT-P) in elderly patients is controversial. To understand the current situation for proper device selection, we investigated the impact of defibrillators on mortality in elderly patients with heart failure.Consecutive patients who underwent CRT implantation were retrospectively recruited. Baseline characteristics, all-cause mortality, cardiac death, and defibrillator implantation rates were investigated in patients aged > 75 or ≤ 75 years.A total of 285 patients (79 patients aged > 75 years) were analyzed. Elderly patients had more comorbidities, but a lower proportion had ventricular arrhythmia. During the mean follow-up of 47 months, 109 patients died (67 due to cardiac death). Kaplan-Meier analysis showed higher mortality in elderly patients (P = 0.0428) but no significant difference in cardiac death by age group (P = 0.7472). There were no significant differences in mortality between patients with CRT-D versus CRT-P (P = 0.3386).SCD was rare. A defibrillator had no significant impact on mortality. In elderly patients, comorbidities are common and related to mortality. The selection of CRT-D versus CRT-P should take those factors into account.

Fatal gastric volvulus: forensic pathology considerations and postmortem CT findings

Gastric volvulus is a rare cause of gastric obstruction, due to the rotation of the stomach by more than 180°. It is a rare but life-threatening medical emergency that is considered difficult to diagnose at the initial clinical presentation. Forensic pathologists may be presented with gastric volvulus in several ways, for instance, as a cause of sudden and unexpected death or in the context of suspected clinical errors. The post-mortem examination of gastric volvulus may be challenging, due to the specific technical issues it presents and the various mechanisms by which volvulus may cause death. We therefore present five cases of gastric volvulus that in combination represent almost the entire spectrum of presentations and post-mortem findings, to discuss how gastric volvulus may come to the attention of a forensic pathologist, the approach and findings at post-mortem examination (including post-mortem CT), and the variety of mechanisms by which gastric volvulus may result in death.

Pulmonary emphysema and coronary artery calcifications at baseline LDCT and long-term mortality in smokers and former smokers of the ITALUNG screening trial

OBJECTIVES

Cardiovascular disease (CVD), lung cancer (LC), and respiratory diseases are main causes of death in smokers and former smokers undergoing low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) for LC screening. We assessed whether quantification of pulmonary emphysematous changes at baseline LDCT has a predictive value concerning long-term mortality.

METHODS

In this longitudinal study, we assessed pulmonary emphysematous changes with densitometry (volume corrected relative area below - 950 Hounsfield units) and coronary artery calcifications (CAC) with a 0-3 visual scale in baseline LDCT of 524 participants in the ITALUNG trial and analyzed their association with mortality after 13.6 years of follow-up using conventional statistics and a machine learning approach.

RESULTS

Pulmonary emphysematous changes were present in 32.3% of subjects and were mild (6% ≤ RA950 ≤ 9%) in 14.9% and moderate-severe (RA950 > 9%) in 17.4%. CAC were present in 67% of subjects (mild in 34.7%, moderate-severe in 32.2%). In the follow-up, 81 (15.4%) subjects died (20 of LC, 28 of other cancers, 15 of CVD, 4 of respiratory disease, and 14 of other conditions). After adjusting for age, sex, smoking history, and CAC, moderate-severe emphysema was significantly associated with overall (OR 2.22; 95CI 1.34-3.70) and CVD (OR 3.66; 95CI 1.21-11.04) mortality. Machine learning showed that RA950 was the best single feature predictive of overall and CVD mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Moderate-severe pulmonary emphysematous changes are an independent predictor of long-term overall and CVD mortality in subjects participating in LC screening and should be incorporated in the post-test calculation of the individual mortality risk profile.

KEY POINTS

• Densitometry allows quantification of pulmonary emphysematous changes in low-dose CT examinations for lung cancer screening. • Emphysematous lung density changes are an independent predictor of long-term overall and cardio-vascular disease mortality in smokers and former smokers undergoing screening. • Emphysematous changes quantification should be included in the post-test calculation of the individual mortality risk profile.