Avoiding lead-time bias by estimating stage-specific proportions of cancer and non-cancer deaths

PURPOSE

Understanding how stage at cancer diagnosis influences cause of death, an endpoint that is not susceptible to lead-time bias, can inform population-level outcomes of cancer screening.

METHODS

Using data from 17 US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registries for 1,154,515 persons aged 50-84 years at cancer diagnosis in 2006-2010, we evaluated proportional causes of death by cancer type and uniformly classified stage, following or extrapolating all patients until death through 2020.

RESULTS

Most cancer patients diagnosed at stages I-II did not go on to die from their index cancer, whereas most patients diagnosed at stage IV did. For patients diagnosed with any cancer at stages I-II, an estimated 26% of deaths were due to the index cancer, 63% due to non-cancer causes, and 12% due to a subsequent primary (non-index) cancer. In contrast, for patients diagnosed with any stage IV cancer, 85% of deaths were attributed to the index cancer, with 13% non-cancer and 2% non-index-cancer deaths. Index cancer mortality from stages I-II cancer was proportionally lowest for thyroid, melanoma, uterus, prostate, and breast, and highest for pancreas, liver, esophagus, lung, and stomach.

CONCLUSION

Across all cancer types, the percentage of patients who went on to die from their cancer was over three times greater when the cancer was diagnosed at stage IV than stages I-II. As mortality patterns are not influenced by lead-time bias, these data suggest that earlier detection is likely to improve outcomes across cancer types, including those currently unscreened.

Host genetic variants, Epstein-Barr virus subtypes, and the risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma: Assessment of interaction and mediation

Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) and human leukocyte antigen (HLA) polymorphisms are well-known risk factors for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). However, the combined effects between HLA and EBV on the risk of NPC are unknown. We applied a causal inference framework to disentangle interaction and mediation effects between two host HLA SNPs, rs2860580 and rs2894207, and EBV variant 163364 with a population-based case-control study in NPC-endemic southern China. We discovered the strong interaction effects between the high-risk EBV subtype and both HLA SNPs on NPC risk (rs2860580, relative excess risk due to interaction [RERI] = 4.08, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.03-6.14; rs2894207, RERI = 3.37, 95% CI = 1.59-5.15), accounting for the majority of genetic risk effects. These results indicate that HLA genes and the high-risk EBV have joint effects on NPC risk. Prevention strategies targeting the high-risk EBV subtype would largely reduce NPC risk associated with EBV and host genetic susceptibility.

Potential for Cure by Stage across the Cancer Spectrum in the United States

BACKGROUND

Cure fraction-the proportion of persons considered cured of cancer after long-term follow-up-reflects the total impact of cancer control strategies, including screening, without lead-time bias. Previous studies have not reported stage-stratified cure fraction across the spectrum of cancer types.

METHODS

Using a mixture cure model, we estimated cure fraction across stages for 21 cancer types and additional subtypes. Cause-specific survival for 2.4 million incident cancers came from 17 US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registries for adults 40 to 84 years at diagnosis in 2006 to 2015, followed through 2020.

RESULTS

Across cancer types, a substantial cure fraction was evident at early stages, followed by either a sharp drop from stages III to IV or a steady decline from stages I to IV. For example, estimated cure fractions for colorectal cancer at stages I, II, III, and IV were 62% (95% confidence interval: 59%-66%), 61% (58%-65%), 58% (57%-59%), and 7% (7%-7%), respectively. Corresponding estimates for gallbladder cancer were 50% (46%-54%), 24% (22%-27%), 22% (19%-25%), and 2% (2%-3%). Differences in 5-year cause-specific survival between early-stage and stage IV cancers were highly correlated with between-stage differences in cure fraction, indicating that survival gaps by stage are persistent and not due to lead-time bias.

CONCLUSIONS

A considerable fraction of cancer is amenable to cure at early stages, but not after metastasis.

IMPACT

These results emphasize the potential for early detection of numerous cancers, including those with no current screening modalities, to reduce cancer death.

Oral fungal profiling and risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma: a population-based case-control study

BACKGROUND

Dysbiosis of the oral mycobiome has been linked to some diseases, including cancers. However, the role of oral fungal communities in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) carcinogenesis has not previously been investigated.

METHODS

We characterized the oral salivary fungal mycobiome in 476 untreated incident NPC patients and 537 population-based controls using fungal internal transcribed spacer (ITS)-2 sequencing. The relationship between oral fungal mycobiome and the risk of NPC was assessed through bioinformatic and biostatistical analyses.

FINDINGS

We found that lower fungal alpha diversity was associated with an increased odds of NPC [lower vs. higher: observed features (adjusted odds ratio [OR] = 5.81, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.60-9.38); Simpson diversity (1.53, 1.03-2.29); Shannon diversity (2.03, 1.35-3.04)]. We also observed a significant difference in global fungal community patterns between cases and controls based on Bray-Curtis dissimilarity (P < 0.001). Carriage of oral fungal species, specifically, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, Candida tropicalis, Lodderomyces elongisporus, Candida albicans, and Fusarium poae, was associated with significantly higher odds of NPC, with ORs ranging from 1.56 to 4.66. Individuals with both low fungal and low bacterial alpha diversity had a profoundly elevated risk of NPC.

INTERPRETATION

Our results suggest that dysbiosis in the oral mycobiome, characterized by a loss of fungal community diversity and overgrowth of several fungal organisms, is associated with a substantially increased risk of NPC.

FUNDING

This work was funded by the US National Institutes of Health, the Swedish Research Council, the High-level Talents Research Start-up Project of Fujian Medical University, and the China Scholarship Council.

Multistage carcinogenesis: Impact of age, genetic, and environmental factors on the incidence of malignant mesothelioma

The current paradigm of carcinogenesis as a cellular evolutionary process driven by mutations of a few critical driver genes has immediate logical implications for the epidemiology of cancer. These include the impact of age on cancer risk, the role played by inherited tumor predisposition syndromes, and the interaction of genetics and environmental exposures on cancer risk. In this paper, we explore the following logical epidemiological consequences of carcinogenesis as a clonal process of mutation accumulation, with special emphasis on asbestos-related cancers, specifically malignant mesothelioma:1 All cancers, including mesothelioma, can and do occur spontaneously, i.e., in the absence of exposure to any environmental carcinogens. 2. Age is an important determinant of cancer risk, with or without exposure to environmental carcinogens. 3. Genetic tumor predisposition syndromes, such as the BAP1 syndrome, increase enormously the risk of cancer even in the absence of exposure to environmental carcinogens. We illustrate these concepts by applying a multistage clonal expansion model to U.S. Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results cancer registry data for pleural and peritoneal malignant mesotheliomas in 1975-2018.

EBV antibody and gastric cancer risk: a population-based nested case-control study in southern China

BACKGROUND

We aim to clarify the controversial associations between EBV-related antibodies and gastric cancer risk.

METHODS

We analysed the associations between serological Epstein-Barr nuclear antigen 1 immunoglobulin A (EBNA1-IgA) and viral capsid antigen immunoglobulin A (VCA-IgA) by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and the risk of gastric cancer in a nested case-control study originated from a population-based nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) screening cohort in Zhongshan, a city of southern China, including 18 gastric cancer cases and 444 controls. Conditional logistic regression was used to calculate the odds ratios (ORs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

All the sera of cases were sampled before diagnosis and the median time interval was 3.04 (range: 0.04, 7.59) years. Both increased relative optical density (rOD) values of EBNA1-IgA and VCA-IgA were associated with higher risks of gastric cancer with age adjusted ORs of 1.99 (95%CI: 1.07, 3.70) and 2.64 (95%CI: 1.33, 5.23), respectively. Each participant was further classified as high or medium/low risk based on a combination of two anti-EBV antibody levels. Participants in the high-risk group had substantially higher odds of developing gastric cancer than that in the medium/low risk group with an age adjusted OR of 6.53 (95%CI: 1.69, 25.26).

CONCLUSIONS

Our research reveals positive associations between EBNA1-IgA and VCA-IgA and gastric cancer risk in southern China. We thus postulate that EBNA1-IgA and VCA-IgA might appear to be potential biomarkers for gastric cancer. More research to further validate the results among diverse populations and investigate its underlying biological mechanism is needed.

Surgical resection as a predictor of cancer-specific survival by stage at diagnosis and cancer type, United States, 2006-2015

BACKGROUND

When solid tumors are amenable to definitive resection, clinical outcomes are generally superior to when those tumors are inoperable. However, the population-level cancer survival benefit of eligibility for surgery by cancer stage has not yet been quantified.

METHODS

Using Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results data allowing us to identify patients who were deemed eligible for and received surgical resection, we examined the stage-specific association of surgical resection with 12-year cancer-specific survival. The 12-year endpoint was selected to maximize follow-up time and thereby minimize the influence of lead time bias.

RESULTS

Across a variety of solid tumor types, earlier stage at diagnosis allowed for surgical intervention at a much higher rate than later-stage diagnosis. At every stage, surgical intervention was associated with a substantially higher rate of 12-year cancer-specific survival, with absolute differences of up to 51% for stage I, 51% for stage II, and 44% for stage III cancer, and stage-specific mortality relative risks of 3.6, 2.4, and 1.7, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Diagnosis of solid cancers in early stages often enables surgical resection, which reduces the risk of death from cancer. Receipt of surgical resection is an informative endpoint that is strongly associated with long-term cancer-specific survival at every stage.

Body mass index and body shape before treatment and nasopharyngeal carcinoma prognosis: a population-based patient cohort study in southern China

A concern of reverse causation exists about the association between nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) prognosis and body mass index (BMI) at diagnosis, while the prognostic impact of BMI measured years before diagnosis is unknown. Therefore, we investigated associations of pre-diagnosis and pre-treatment BMI and body shape on NPC mortality. From a population-based patient cohort in southern China between 2010 and 2013, we included 2526 incident NPC cases with prospective follow-up through 2018. We assessed the associations of BMI and body shape at age 20 years, 10 years before diagnosis, and at diagnosis with NPC mortality, combining strategies of stratification and statistical adjustment to minimise reverse causation. We observed 25% lower all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 0.75, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.64-0.89) and 28% lower NPC-specific mortality (HR 0.74, 95% CI: 0.51-1.03) among overweight vs normal-weight NPC cases at diagnosis. Lean body shapes 1 and 2 at diagnosis were associated with 68% and 23% higher all-cause mortality, respectively, compared with normal body shape 3. No effect modification by cancer stage was detected for associations with all-cause or NPC-specific mortality. Associations with BMI and body shape 10 years before diagnosis were similar but attenuated, while body size and shape at age 20 were not associated with mortality. Being overweight at diagnosis decreased mortality, and thinner body shape increased mortality, compared with normal weight/body shape. These associations may be due to poorer nutrition and treatment intolerance, resulting in treatment discontinuation and worse survival outcomes. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Pre-diagnostic anti-EBV antibodies and primary liver cancer risk: a population-based nested case-control study in southern China

BACKGROUND

We aimed to investigate associations between pre-diagnostic anti-Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) antibodies, including interactions with hepatitis B virus (HBV), and risk of primary liver cancer in southern China.

METHODS

In a population-based nested case-control study, we measured pre-diagnostic immunoglobulin A (IgA) against EBV nuclear antigen 1 (EBNA1) and viral capsid antigen (VCA) in 125 primary liver cancer cases and 2077 matched controls. We also explored the interaction between HBV surface antigen (HBsAg) and anti-EBV antibodies.

RESULTS

Participants with positive EBNA1-IgA, positive VCA-IgA or single-positive anti-EBV antibodies had two-fold odds of developing liver cancer, compared with seronegative subjects. The odds ratios (ORs) between the relative optical density of EBNA1-IgA and VCA-IgA and primary cancer, controlling for age and HBsAg, were 1.59 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.17, 2.14) and 1.60 (95% CI: 1.07, 2.41), respectively. Subjects with both HBsAg and anti-EBV antibody seropositivity were at 50-fold increased risk compared with those negative for both biomarkers (OR: 50.67, 95% CI: 18.28, 140.46), yielding a relative excess risk due to interaction of 30.81 (95% CI: 3.42, 114.93).

CONCLUSION

Pre-diagnostic seropositivity for EBNA1-IgA and/or VCA-IgA was positively associated with primary liver cancer risk, especially in combination with HBsAg positivity. EBV may interact with HBV in the development of primary liver cancer, and anti-EBV antibodies might be potential biomarkers for primary liver cancer in this high-risk population.

Systematic literature review of the epidemiology of glyphosate and neurological outcomes

PURPOSE

Human health risk assessments of glyphosate have focused on animal toxicology data for determining neurotoxic potential. Human epidemiological studies have not yet been systematically reviewed for glyphosate neurotoxicity hazard identification. The objective of this systematic literature review was to summarize the available epidemiology of glyphosate exposure and neurological outcomes in humans.

METHODS

As of December 2021, 25 eligible epidemiological studies of glyphosate exposure and neurological endpoints were identified and assessed for five quality dimensions using guidance from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Studies that assessed personal use of glyphosate were prioritized, whereas those assessing indirect exposure (other than personal use) were rated as low quality, since biomonitoring data indicate that indirect metrics of glyphosate exposure almost always equate to non-detectable glyphosate doses.

RESULTS

Overall, the scientific evidence on glyphosate and neurotoxicity in humans is sparse and methodologically limited, based on nine included epidemiological studies of neurodegenerative outcomes (two high quality), five studies of neurobehavioral outcomes (two high quality), six studies of neurodevelopmental outcomes (none high quality), and five studies of other and mixed neurological outcomes (one high quality). The five high-quality studies showed no association between glyphosate use and risk of depression, Parkinson disease, or peripheral nerve conduction velocity. Results were mixed among the eight moderate-quality studies, which did not demonstrate consistent associations with any neurological endpoints or categories. Low-quality studies were considered uninformative about possible neurotoxic effects due primarily to questionable assessments of indirect exposure.

CONCLUSIONS

No association has been demonstrated between glyphosate and any neurological outcomes in humans. To move the state of science forward, epidemiological studies should focus on scenarios involving direct and frequent use of glyphosate while collecting information on validated health outcomes, concomitant agricultural exposures, and relevant personal characteristics.

Considerations towards the better integration of epidemiology into quantitative risk assessment

Environmental epidemiology has proven critical to study various associations between environmental exposures and adverse human health effects. However, there is a perception that it often does not sufficiently inform quantitative risk assessment. To help address this concern, in 2017, the Health and Environmental Sciences Institute initiated a project engaging the epidemiology, exposure science, and risk assessment communities with tripartite representation from government agencies, industry, and academia, in a dialogue on the use of environmental epidemiology for quantitative risk assessment and public health decision making. As part of this project, four meetings attended by experts in epidemiology, exposure science, toxicology, statistics, and risk assessment, as well as one additional meeting engaging funding agencies, were organized to explore incentives and barriers to realizing the full potential of epidemiological data in quantitative risk assessment. A set of questions was shared with workshop participants prior to the meetings, and two case studies were used to support the discussion. Five key ideas emerged from these meetings as areas of desired improvement to ensure that human data can more consistently become an integral part of quantitative risk assessment: 1) reducing confirmation and publication bias, 2) increasing communication with funding agencies to raise awareness of research needs, 3) developing alternative funding channels targeted to support quantitative risk assessment, 4) making data available for reuse and analysis, and 5) developing cross-disciplinary and cross-sectoral interactions, collaborations, and training. We explored and integrated these themes into a roadmap illustrating the need for a multi-stakeholder effort to ensure that epidemiological data can fully contribute to the quantitative evaluation of human health risks, and to build confidence in a reliable decision-making process that leverages the totality of scientific evidence.

Distinct germline genetic susceptibility profiles identified for common non-Hodgkin lymphoma subtypes

Lymphoma risk is elevated for relatives with common non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) subtypes, suggesting shared genetic susceptibility across subtypes. To evaluate the extent of mutual heritability among NHL subtypes and discover novel loci shared among subtypes, we analyzed data from eight genome-wide association studies within the InterLymph Consortium, including 10,629 cases and 9505 controls. We utilized Association analysis based on SubSETs (ASSET) to discover loci for subsets of NHL subtypes and evaluated shared heritability across the genome using Genome-wide Complex Trait Analysis (GCTA) and polygenic risk scores. We discovered 17 genome-wide significant loci (P < 5 × 10-8) for subsets of NHL subtypes, including a novel locus at 10q23.33 (HHEX) (P = 3.27 × 10-9). Most subset associations were driven primarily by only one subtype. Genome-wide genetic correlations between pairs of subtypes varied broadly from 0.20 to 0.86, suggesting substantial heterogeneity in the extent of shared heritability among subtypes. Polygenic risk score analyses of established loci for different lymphoid malignancies identified strong associations with some NHL subtypes (P < 5 × 10-8), but weak or null associations with others. Although our analyses suggest partially shared heritability and biological pathways, they reveal substantial heterogeneity among NHL subtypes with each having its own distinct germline genetic architecture.

A novel causal model for nasopharyngeal carcinoma

The development of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) and its unique geographic distribution have long been attributed to a combination of dietary intake of salt-preserved fish, inherited susceptibility, and early-life infection with the Epstein-Barr virus (EBV). New findings from our large, rigorously designed, population-based case-control study of NPC in southern China have enabled substantial revision of this causal model. Here, we briefly summarize these results and provide an updated model of the etiology of NPC. Our new research identifies two EBV genetic variants that may be causally involved in the majority of NPC in southern China, and suggests the rise of modern environmental co-factors accompanying cultural and economic transformation in NPC-endemic regions. These discoveries can be translated directly into clinical and public health advances, including improvement of indoor air quality and oral health, development of an EBV vaccine, enhanced screening strategies, and improved risk prediction. Greater understanding of the roles of environmental, genetic, and viral risk factors can reveal the extent to which these agents act independently or jointly on NPC development. The history of NPC research demonstrates how epidemiology can shed light on the interplay of genes, environment, and infections in carcinogenesis, and how this knowledge can be harnessed for cancer prevention and control.

A polygenic risk score for nasopharyngeal carcinoma shows potential for risk stratification and personalized screening

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) have the potential to identify individuals at risk of diseases, optimizing treatment, and predicting survival outcomes. Here, we construct and validate a genome-wide association study (GWAS) derived PRS for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC), using a multi-center study of six populations (6 059 NPC cases and 7 582 controls), and evaluate its utility in a nested case-control study. We show that the PRS enables effective identification of NPC high-risk individuals (AUC = 0.65) and improves the risk prediction with the PRS incremental deciles in each population (Ptrend ranging from 2.79 × 10-7 to 4.79 × 10-44). By incorporating the PRS into EBV-serology-based NPC screening, the test's positive predictive value (PPV) is increased from an average of 4.84% to 8.38% and 11.91% in the top 10% and 5% PRS, respectively. In summary, the GWAS-derived PRS, together with the EBV test, significantly improves NPC risk stratification and informs personalized screening.

Influence of Pre-treatment Saliva Microbial Diversity and Composition on Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Prognosis

Background

The human microbiome has been reported to mediate the response to anticancer therapies. However, research about the influence of the oral microbiome on nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) survival is lacking. We aimed to explore the effect of oral microbiota on NPC prognosis.

Methods

Four hundred eighty-two population-based NPC cases in southern China between 2010 and 2013 were followed for survival, and their saliva samples were profiled using 16s rRNA sequencing. We analyzed associations of the oral microbiome diversity with mortality from all causes and NPC.

Results

Within- and between-community diversities of saliva were associated with mortality with an average of 5.29 years follow-up. Lower Faith’s phylogenetic diversity was related to higher all-cause mortality [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR), 1.52 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.06–2.17)] and NPC-specific mortality [aHR, 1.57 (95% CI, 1.07–2.29)], compared with medium diversity, but higher phylogenetic diversity was not protective. The third principal coordinate (PC3) identified from principal coordinates analysis (PCoA) on Bray–Curtis distance was marginally associated with reduced all-cause mortality [aHR, 0.85 (95% CI, 0.73–1.00)], as was the first principal coordinate (PC1) from PCoA on weighted UniFrac [aHR, 0.86 (95% CI, 0.74–1.00)], but neither was associated with NPC-specific mortality. PC3 from robust principal components analysis was associated with lower all-cause and NPC-specific mortalities, with HRs of 0.72 (95% CI, 0.61–0.85) and 0.71 (95% CI, 0.60–0.85), respectively.

Conclusions

Oral microbiome may be an explanatory factor for NPC prognosis. Lower within-community diversity was associated with higher mortality, and certain measures of between-community diversity were related to mortality. Specifically, candidate bacteria were not related to mortality, suggesting that observed associations may be due to global patterns rather than particular pathogens.

Environmental factors for Epstein-Barr virus reactivation in a high-risk area of nasopharyngeal carcinoma: a population-based study

Background

Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) reactivation from latent to lytic infection has been considered as a key step in nasopharyngeal carcinoma oncogenesis. However, epidemiological evidence regarding environmental risk factors for EBV reactivation on a population level remains largely lacking.

Methods

We enrolled 1916 randomly selected adults from the general population of Guangdong and Guangxi, China, from 2010 to 2014. Information on environmental factors was collected via a structured interview. Serum immunoglobulin A antibodies against EBV viral capsid antigen and nuclear antigen 1 were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay to evaluate EBV reactivation status. We used logistic regression to calculate odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the associations of EBV reactivation with various environmental factors.

Results

No associations were observed between EBV reactivation and extensive environmental factors, including alcohol or tea drinking, a history of chronic ear/nose/throat diseases, use of medications or herbs, consumption of salted fish or preserved foods, oral hygiene, sibship structure, and various residential and occupational exposures. Only cigarette smoking was associated with EBV reactivation (current smokers vs never smokers; OR = 1.37; 95% CI = 1.02–1.83), with positive exposure-response trends with increasing intensity, duration, and pack-years of smoking.

Conclusions

Consistent with previous studies, we found an association between cigarette smoking and EBV reactivation. Other examined exposures were not associated with EBV reactivation. These null results could suggest either more complex interactions between exposures and EBV reactivation or a predominant role of host and/or viral genetic variation.

Use of Contrave, Naltrexone with Bupropion, Bupropion, or Naltrexone and Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events: A Systematic Literature Review

Naltrexone/Bupropion extended release (ER; Contrave) is an extended-release, fixed-dose combination medication of naltrexone (8 mg) and bupropion (90 mg) for patients with obesity or overweight with at least one weight-related comorbidity. Obese and overweight patients with or without comorbidities are at increased cardiovascular (CV) risk. Due to the increased CV risk profile in this patient population, this systematic literature review was conducted to assess human studies reporting major adverse CV events (MACE) and other CV events. A priori eligibility criteria included clinical studies (randomized and observational) published from January 1, 2012, to September 30, 2021, with data comparing users of naltrexone/bupropion ER, naltrexone with bupropion, bupropion without naltrexone, or naltrexone without bupropion versus comparator groups (placebo or other treatments), and with sufficient information to determine the frequency of MACE or other CV adverse events by treatment group. Among 2539 English-language articles identified, 70 articles met the eligibility criteria: seven studies of naltrexone/bupropion ER or naltrexone with bupropion, 32 studies of bupropion, and 31 studies of naltrexone. No studies reported an increased risk of MACE among users of naltrexone/bupropion ER, naltrexone with bupropion, or bupropion or naltrexone individually compared with nonusers. One-half of the available studies (n = 35) reported no (zero) CV events and the other half (n = 35) reported that a non-zero frequency of CV events occurred. Four studies reported data on MACE, including three studies of bupropion and one study of naltrexone/bupropion ER. For composite MACE and its components, the difference in proportions between naltrexone/bupropion ER-, bupropion-, or naltrexone-treated patients compared with active comparators or placebo-treated patients did not exceed 2.5%. In conclusion, the available human evidence does not indicate an increased risk of CV events or MACE following use of naltrexone/bupropion ER, naltrexone with bupropion, or the individual components.

Environmental epidemiology and risk assessment: Exploring a path to increased confidence in public health decision-making

Throughout history, environmental epidemiology has proven crucial to identify certain threats to human health and to provide a basis for the development of life-saving public health policies. However, epidemiologists are facing challenges when studying tenuous threats such as environmental exposure to chemicals, whose association with adverse health effects may be difficult to characterize. As a result, epidemiological data can seldom be fully leveraged for quantitative risk assessment and decision-making. Despite two decades of efforts to improve a more systematic integration of human data to evaluate human health risks, assessors still heavily rely on animal data to do so, while epidemiology plays more of a secondary role. Although the need for more and better collaboration between risk assessors and epidemiologists is widely recognized, both fields tend to remain siloed. In 2017, the Health and Environmental Sciences Institute initiated a project engaging the epidemiology, exposure science, and regulatory communities with tripartite representation from regulators, industry, and academia in a dialogue on the use of environmental epidemiology for regulatory decision-making. Several focus groups attended by epidemiology, exposure science, and risk assessment experts were organized to explore incentives and barriers to collaboration, to ultimately bridge the gap between the various disciplines, and to realize the full potential of epidemiological data in risk assessment. Various ideas that have emerged from these meetings could help ensure the better integration of epidemiological data in quantitative risk assessment and contribute to building confidence in a robust and science-based regulatory decision-making process.

Ranitidine Use and Risk of Upper Gastrointestinal Cancers

BACKGROUND

The discovery that ranitidine is contaminated with N-nitrosodimethylamine, a suspected human carcinogen, raises the hypothesis of a gastrointestinal carcinogenic effect; however, evidence remains inconclusive.

METHODS

We used the nationwide Danish Prescription Registry to identify a cohort of incident ranitidine users and two active comparator cohorts comprising users of other histamine-2 receptor blockers (H2RB) and users of proton pump inhibitors (PPI). All Danish adults with a first prescription of ranitidine, other H2RBs, or PPIs in 1996 through 2008 were followed virtually completely through 2018 for incidence of esophageal, stomach, liver, and pancreatic cancers. We used Cox regression with propensity-score weighting to calculate hazard ratios and 10-year cumulative risk with 95% confidence intervals.

RESULTS

We ascertained 276 newly diagnosed esophageal, 342 stomach, 133 hepatocellular, and 517 pancreatic cancers among ranitidine users during follow-up (median 14 years). In comparison with use of other H2RBs or PPIs, we found no consistent evidence of increased HRs or excess 10-year cumulative risk of any upper gastrointestinal cancer following ranitidine use. We observed no association after restriction to subjects with at least 5 or 10 prescriptions or those with 10 prescriptions and at least 10 years of follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

Our large prospective study using high-quality prescription and cancer incidence data, with two active comparator groups, provides no compelling evidence that ranitidine increases the risk of upper gastrointestinal cancers.

IMPACT

Our results, which do not support any carcinogenic effect on esophagus, stomach, liver or pancreas, should be reassuring for millions of concerned past users of ranitidine.

A comprehensive risk score for effective risk stratification and screening of nasopharyngeal carcinoma

Using Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)-based markers to screen populations at high risk for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is an attractive preventive approach. Here, we develop a comprehensive risk score (CRS) that combines risk effects of EBV and human genetics for NPC risk stratification and validate this CRS within an independent, population-based dataset. Comparing the top decile with the bottom quintile of CRSs, the odds ratio of developing NPC is 21 (95% confidence interval: 12-37) in the validation dataset. When combining the top quintile of CRS with EBV serology tests currently used for NPC screening in southern China, the positive prediction value of screening increases from 4.70% (serology test alone) to 43.24% (CRS plus serology test). By identifying individuals at a monogenic level of NPC risk, this CRS approach provides opportunities for personalized risk prediction and population screening in endemic areas for the early diagnosis and secondary prevention of NPC.

Residence characteristics and risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in southern China: A population-based case-control study

OBJECTIVES

Given the role of exposures related to residence in the development of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) has not been well explored, present study aims to investigate the magnitude and pattern of associations for NPC with lifelong residential exposures.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We carried out a multi-center, population-based case-control study with 2533 incident NPC cases and 2597 randomly selected population controls in southern China between 2010 and 2014. We performed multivariate logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the risk of NPC associated with residential exposures.

RESULTS

Compared with those living in a building over lifetime, risk of NPC was higher for individuals living in a cottage (OR: 1.56; 95% CI: 1.34-1.81) or in a boat (3.87; 2.07-7.21). NPC risk was also increased in individuals using wood (1.34; 1.03-1.75), coal (1.70; 1.17-2.47), or kerosene (3.58; 1.75-7.36) vs. using gas/electricity as cooking fuel; using well water (1.57; 1.34-1.83), river water (1.80; 1.47-2.21), or spring/pond/stream water (2.03; 1.70-2.41) vs. tap water for source of drinking water; living in houses with smaller-sized vs. larger windows in the bedroom (3.08; 2.46-3.86), hall (1.89; 1.55-2.31) or kitchen (1.67; 1.34-2.08); and increasing exposure to cooking smoke [(1.53; 1.20-1.94) for high exposure)] or burned incense [(1.59; 1.31-1.95) for daily use)]. Weighted Cox regression analysis corroborated these results.

CONCLUSION

Poorer residential conditions and household air pollution are associated with an increased risk of NPC. Large-scale studies in other populations or longitudinal studies are warranted to further corroborate these findings.

Dietary patterns and risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma: a population-based case-control study in southern China

BACKGROUND

Dietary factors, such as consumption of preserved foods, fresh vegetables, and fruits, have been linked to the risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). However, little is known about associations between dietary patterns and the risk of NPC in NPC-endemic areas.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to evaluate whether dietary patterns are associated with NPC risk.

METHODS

We studied 2554 newly diagnosed NPC patients aged 20-74 y living in 3 endemic regions of southern China, and 2648 population-based controls frequency-matched to case patients by age, sex, and region, between 2010 and 2014. Dietary components were derived from food frequency data in adulthood and adolescence using principal component analysis. Four dietary components were identified and highly similar in adulthood and adolescence. We used multivariable unconditional logistic regression to calculate ORs with 95% CIs for the association between dietary patterns and NPC risk.

RESULTS

Compared with the lowest quartile, individuals in the highest quartile of the "plant-based factor" in adulthood had a 52% (OR: 0.48; 95% CI: 0.38, 0.59) decreased risk of NPC, and those in the highest quartile of the "animal-based factor" had a >2-fold (OR: 2.26; 95% CI: 1.85, 2.77) increased risk, with a monotonic dose-response trend (P-trend < 0.0001). Similar but weaker associations were found in adolescence. High intakes of the "preserved-food factor" were associated with increased NPC risk in both periods, although stronger associations were found in adolescence. Results from joint analysis and sensitivity analyses indicated that dietary factors in adulthood might be more stable and robust predictors of NPC risk than those in adolescence.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results deliver compelling evidence that plant- and animal-based dietary factors are associated with NPC risk, and provide more insights on the associations of diets and cancer risk that may assist healthy diet recommendations.

Essential concepts for interpreting the dose-response of low-level arsenic exposure in epidemiological studies

Scientifically robust selections of epidemiological studies and assessments of the dose-response of inorganic arsenic in the low-dose range must consider key issues specific to arsenic in order to reduce risk of bias. The abundance of toxicological, mechanistic, and epidemiological evidence on arsenic enables a nuanced assessment of risk of bias in epidemiological studies of low-level arsenic, as opposed to a generic evaluation based only on standard principles. Important concepts in this context include 1) arsenic metabolism and mode of action for toxicity and carcinogenicity; 2) effects of confounding factors such as diet, health status including nutritional deficiencies, use of tobacco and other substances, and body composition; 3) strengths and limitations of various metrics for assessing relevant exposures consistent with the mode of action; and 4) the potential for bias in the positive direction for the observed dose-response relationship as exposure increases in the low-dose range. As an example, evaluation of a recent dose-response modeling using eight epidemiological studies of inorganic arsenic and bladder cancer demonstrated that the pooled risk estimate was markedly affected by the single study that was ranked as having a high risk of bias, based on the above factors. The other seven studies were also affected by these factors to varying, albeit lesser, degrees that can influence the apparent dose-response in the low-dose range (i.e., drinking water concentration of 65 µg/L or dose of approximately ≤1 µg/kg-day). These issues are relevant considerations for assessing health risks of oral exposures to inorganic arsenic in the U.S. population, and setting evidence-based regulatory limits to protect human health.

The Evolving Epidemiology of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The epidemiology of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) has long been a source of fascination due to the malignancy's striking geographic distribution, the involvement of the oncogenic Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), the unique association with intake of Chinese-style salt-preserved fish, and etiologic heterogeneity by histologic subtype.

METHODS

This review summarizes the current epidemiologic literature on NPC, highlighting recent results from our population-based case-control study in southern China.

RESULTS

Findings from our case-control study provide new insight into the epidemiology of NPC, including a diminished role of Chinese-style salt-preserved fish, a profound impact of EBV genetic sequence variation, modest positive associations with passive smoking and household air pollution, and possible effects of oral health and the oral microbiome. Recent findings from other studies include a protective association with infectious mononucleosis, suggesting a causal role of early EBV infection; familial risk conferred by shared genetic variation in the host antibody-mediated immune response to EBV infection; and an unclear association with occupational exposure to formaldehyde.

CONCLUSIONS

To shed further light on the interplay of environmental, genetic, and viral causes of NPC, large pooled studies must accumulate sufficient cases with detailed exposure data.

IMPACT

New epidemiologic findings have reshaped the causal model for NPC.

Occupational exposures and risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in a high-risk area: A population-based case-control study

BACKGROUND

The potential role of occupational exposures in the development of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) remains unclear, particularly in high-incidence areas.

METHODS

The authors conducted a population-based case-control study, consisting of 2514 incident NPC cases and 2586 randomly selected population controls, in southern China from 2010 to 2014. Occupational history and other covariates were self-reported using a questionnaire. Multivariate logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the risk of NPC associated with occupational exposures. Restricted cubic splines were used to evaluate potentially nonlinear duration-response relations.

RESULTS

Individuals who had exposure to occupational dusts (OR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.26-1.68), chemical vapors (OR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.17-1.61), exhausts/smokes (OR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.25-1.60), or acids/alkalis (OR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.30-1.89) in the workplace had an increased NPC risk compared with those who were unexposed. Risk estimates for all 4 categories of occupational exposures appeared to linearly increase with increasing duration. Within these categories, occupational exposure to 14 subtypes of agents conferred significantly higher risks of NPC, with ORs ranging from 1.30 to 2.29, including dust from metals, textiles, cement, or coal; vapor from formaldehyde, organic solvents, or dyes; exhaust or smoke from diesel, firewood, asphalt/tar, vehicles, or welding; and sulfuric acid, hydrochloric acid, nitric acid, and concentrated alkali/ammonia.

CONCLUSIONS

Occupational exposures to dusts, chemical vapors, exhausts/smokes, or acids/alkalis are associated with an excess risk of NPC. If the current results are causal, then the amelioration of workplace conditions might alleviate the burden of NPC in endemic areas.

LAY SUMMARY

The role of occupational exposures in the development of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) remains unclear, particularly in high-incidence areas. The authors conducted a population-based study with 2514 incident NPC cases and 2586 population controls in southern China and observed that occupational exposures were associated with an increased risk of NPC. Duration-response trends were observed with increasing duration of exposure. These findings provide new evidence supporting an etiologic role of occupational exposures for NPC in a high-incidence region.

Intake of Alcohol and Tea and Risk of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma: A Population-Based Case-Control Study in Southern China

BACKGROUND

The potential effect of alcohol or tea intake on the risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) remains controversial.

METHODS

In a population-based case-control study in southern China, we assessed alcohol or tea intake from 2,441 histopathologically confirmed NPC cases and 2,546 controls. We calculated mean daily ethanol (g/day) and tea intake (mL/day). Fully adjusted ORs with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using logistic regression; potential dose-response trends were evaluated using restricted cubic spline analysis.

RESULTS

Compared with nondrinkers, no significantly increased NPC risk in men was observed among current alcohol drinkers overall (OR, 1.08; 95% CI, 0.93-1.25), nor among current heavy drinkers (OR for ≥90 g/day ethanol vs. none, 1.32; 95% CI, 0.95-1.84) or former alcohol drinkers. Current tea drinking was associated with a decreased NPC risk (OR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.64-0.84). Compared with never drinkers, those with the low first three quintiles of mean daily current intake of tea were at significantly lower NPC risk (OR, 0.53, 0.68, and 0.65, respectively), but not significant for the next two quintiles. Current daily tea intake had a significant nonlinear dose-response relation with NPC risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggests no significant association between alcohol and NPC risk. Tea drinking may moderately reduce NPC risk, but the lack of a monotonic dose-response association complicates causal inference.

IMPACT

Tea drinking might be a healthy habit for preventing NPC. More studies on biological mechanisms that may link tea with NPC risk are needed.

Prevalence of Viremic Hepatitis C Virus Infection by Age, Race/Ethnicity, and Birthplace and Disease Awareness Among Viremic Persons in the United States, 1999-2016

BACKGROUND

Athough curative therapy is now available for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in the United States, it is not clear whether all affected persons have been diagnosed and/or linked to care.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study utilized data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1999-2016) and included 46 465 nonincarcerated and noninstitutionalized participants.

RESULTS

Viremic HCV prevalence decreased from 1.32% in 1999-2004 to 0.80% in 2011-2016, although most of the decrease occurred in US-born whites and blacks but not the foreign-born or those born after 1985. In 2011-2016, approximately 1.90 million US adults remained viremic with HCV, and 0.33 million were at higher risk for advanced fibrosis, but only 49.8% were aware of their HCV infection, with higher disease awareness in those with health insurance coverage and US-born persons.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of viremic HCV has decreased in recent years among US born whites and blacks but not in other race/ethnicities and foreign-born persons and birth cohort born after 1985. Less than half of the viremic population was aware of having HCV infection. Improved HCV screening and linkage to care are needed, especially for the uninsured, foreign-born, birth cohort after 1985 and certain ethnic minorities.

Comments on a recent case-control study of malignant mesothelioma of the pericardium and the tunica vaginalis testis

As the first case-control study of malignant mesothelioma of the pericardium and the tunica vaginalis testis (mTVT), the paper by Marinaccio et al (1) is potentially an important epidemiologic contribution. A careful review of the paper, however, raises a number of methodological issues. Any case-control study can be viewed as being nested within a conceptual cohort, with controls being sampled from the at-risk cohort as cases arise over time. This view of case-control studies leads to the concept of incidence-density sampling of controls (eg, 2, 3). For Marinaccio et al (1) this would mean that, as cases were registered over the study period, each would be matched to an individual control or set of controls of the same gender, age, and region of the country (since asbestos exposure varies by time and region [4]). For example, if a case were 50 years old in 1995, then any matched control should be close to age 50 in 1995 and of the same gender and from the same region as the case. Matching for age in this fashion automatically results in matching for year of birth, which is essential in this context because birth-cohort effects are determinants of asbestos exposure and mesothelioma incidence (eg, 5-8). If Marinaccio et al (1) used this scheme for age-matching, one would expect to see similar distributions of cases (table 1) and controls (table S3 in the supplemental material) by period of birth. Among males, however, the distributions of mesothelioma cases (whether pericardial or mTVT) and controls by period of birth are clearly different (P<0.001). Among females, the distributions of cases of pericardial mesothelioma and controls by birth year are less dissimilar (P≈0.05). Thus, the female cases of pericardial mesothelioma are better matched to controls on year of birth than are male cases of either mTVT or pericardial mesothelioma. We note also that the distributions of male and female controls by year of birth are distinctly different (P<0.002), whereas the birth-year distributions of cases of mesothelioma by site and gender are not (P≈0.8). In the Marinaccio et al (1) sensitivity analysis restricted to subjects born before 1950, the distributions of cases and controls by period of birth remain significantly different. Therefore, based on the reported evidence, cases and controls were not matched on birth cohort, thereby possibly biasing the results. Similarly, bias may result from the lack of matching on geographic region; while cases were registered from across Italy, controls were selected from only six regions. Although a sensitivity analysis restricted cases and controls to those from only the six regions, a comparison of tables S1 and S3 indicates that the regional distribution of controls is different from that of person-time observed; that is, the controls do not appear to be representative of the underlying population at risk by region. The second major issue of concern has to do with ascertainment of asbestos exposure. Information on exposure for the cases was presumably obtained at the time of registration. The two sets of controls, obtained from previously unpublished case-control studies, were interviewed during 2014-2015 and 2014-2016; that is, many years after the exposure for most cases was ascertained (1993-2015). Few other details of the control groups are provided, except that participation by one set of controls was <50%, raising additional concerns about selection bias. For details on the second set of controls, Marinaccio et al (1) reference a paper by Brandi et al (9). On review of that paper, however, we found no description of the control group, only references to three earlier papers. Marinaccio et al (1) present analyses only with both sets of controls combined; to evaluate potential sources of bias from the use of different sets of controls, they should also report results using each set of controls separately. The authors also did not detail their methods of exposure classification. For example, what does probable or possible exposure mean? The authors should at least present separate analyses of definite occupational exposure. Eighty cases of mTVT were registered, but only 68 were included in the analyses. Information on the 12 omitted cases (eg, age, year of birth, and region) would be helpful. Marinaccio et al (1) did not provide clear information on what occupations and/or industries they considered as exposed to asbestos. In an earlier study, Marinaccio et al (10) remarked on the absence of pericardial mesothelioma and mTVT in industries with the highest exposures to asbestos, saying, "[t]he absence of exposures in the shipbuilding, railway and asbestos-cement industries … for all the 67 pericardial and testicular cases is noteworthy but not easy to interpret." By contrast, Marinaccio et al (1) stated, "[t]he economic sectors more frequently associated with asbestos exposure were construction, steel mills, metal-working industry, textile industry and agriculture." The possibility of exposure in the "agriculture economic sector" was not mentioned in Marinaccio et al (10) and appears not to have been considered in previous epidemiologic studies in Italy. In general, epidemiologic studies indicate that farmers and agricultural workers are not at increased risk of developing mesothelioma (eg, 11-17). The fact that few, if any, cases of mTVT and pericardial mesothelioma occurred in industries traditionally associated with high asbestos exposure raises the possibility that the results of Marinaccio et al (1) are attributable to deficiencies in study design, very possibly bias in the selection of controls, and deficiencies in exposure assessment and classification as described above, leading to a spurious association of occupational exposure with mTVT and male pericardial mesothelioma. Conflict of interest This research has received no outside funding. All authors are employees of Exponent, Inc., an international scientific and engineering consulting company. All authors have worked as both consulting and testifying experts in litigation matters related to asbestos exposure and asbestos-related disease. References 1. Marinaccio A, Consonni D, Mensi C, Mirabelli D, Migliore E, Magnani C et al.; ReNaM Working Group. Association between asbestos exposure and pericardial and tunica vaginalis testis malignant mesothelioma: a case-control study and epidemiological remarks. Scand J Work Environ Health. 2020;46(6):609-617. https://doi.org/10.5271/sjweh.3895. 2. Rothman KJ, Greenland S, Lash TL. Modern Epidemiology. 2008; Philadelphia: Wolters Kluwer/Lippincott Williams & Wilkins. 3. Richardson DB. An incidence density sampling program for nested case-control analyses. Occup Environ Med 2004 Dec;61(12):e59. https://doi.org/10.1136/oem.2004.014472. 4. Marinaccio A, Binazzi A, Marzio DD, Scarselli A, Verardo M, Mirabelli D et al.; ReNaM Working Group. Pleural malignant mesothelioma epidemic: incidence, modalities of asbestos exposure and occupations involved from the Italian National Register. Int J Cancer 2012 May;130(9):2146-54. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijc.26229. 5. La Vecchia C, Decarli A, Peto J, Levi F, Tomei F, Negri E. An age, period and cohort analysis of pleural cancer mortality in Europe. Eur J Cancer Prev 2000 Jun;9(3):179-84. https://doi.org/10.1097/00008469-200006000-00005. 6. Price B, Ware A. Mesothelioma trends in the United States: an update based on Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program data for 1973 through 2003. Am J Epidemiol 2004 Jan;159(2):107-12. https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwh025. 7. Moolgavkar SH, Meza R, Turim J. Pleural and peritoneal mesotheliomas in SEER: age effects and temporal trends, 1973-2005. Cancer Causes Control 2009 Aug;20(6):935-44. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10552-009-9328-9. 8. Moolgavkar SH, Chang ET, Mezei G, Mowat FS. Chapter 3. Epidemiology of mesothelioma. In Testa JR. Asbestos and mesothelioma; 2017. pp. 43-72. Cham, Switzerland: Springer International Publishing. 9. Brandi G, Di Girolamo S, Farioli A, de Rosa F, Curti S, Pinna AD et al. Asbestos: a hidden player behind the cholangiocarcinoma increase? Findings from a case-control analysis. Cancer Causes Control 2013 May;24(5):911-8. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10552-013-0167-3. 10. Marinaccio A, Binazzi A, Di Marzio D, Scarselli A, Verardo M, Mirabelli D et al. Incidence of extrapleural malignant mesothelioma and asbestos exposure, from the Italian national register. Occup Environ Med 2010 Nov;67(11):760-5. https://doi.org/10.1136/oem.2009.051466. 11. Teschke K, Morgan MS, Checkoway H, Franklin G, Spinelli JJ, van Belle G et al. Mesothelioma surveillance to locate sources of exposure to asbestos. Can J Public Health 1997 May-Jun;88(3):163-8. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03403881. 12. Bouchardy C, Schüler G, Minder C, Hotz P, Bousquet A, Levi F et al. Cancer risk by occupation and socioeconomic group among men--a study by the Association of Swiss Cancer Registries. Scand J Work Environ Health 2002;28(1 Suppl 1):1-88. 13. Hemminki K, Li X. Time trends and occupational risk factors for pleural mesothelioma in Sweden. J Occup Environ Med 2003a Apr;45(4):456-61. https://doi.org/10.1097/01.jom.0000058341.05741.7e. 14. Hemminki K, Li X. Time trends and occupational risk factors for peritoneal mesothelioma in Sweden. J Occup Environ Med 2003b Apr;45(4):451-5. https://doi.org/10.1097/01.jom.0000052960.59271.d4. 15. Pukkala E, Martinsen JI, Lynge E, Gunnarsdottir HK, Sparén P, Tryggvadottir L et al. Occupation and cancer - follow-up of 15 million people in five Nordic countries. Acta Oncol 2009;48(5):646-790. https://doi.org/10.1080/02841860902913546. 16. Rolland P, Gramond C, Berron H, Ducamp S, Imbernon E, Goldberg M et al. Mesotheliome pleural: Professions et secteurs d'activite a risque chez les hommes [Pleural mesothelioma: Professions and occupational areas at risk among humans]. 2005; Institut de Veille Sanitaire, Departement Sante Travai, Saint-Maurice, France. 17. Rolland P, Gramond C, Lacourt A, Astoul P, Chamming's S, Ducamp S et al. PNSM Study Group. Occupations and industries in France at high risk for pleural mesothelioma: A population-based case-control study (1998-2002). Am J Ind Med 2010 Dec;53(12):1207-19. https://doi.org/10.1002/ajim.20895.

Smoking, air pollution, and lung cancer risk in the Nurses' Health Study cohort: time-dependent confounding and effect modification

The proportional hazards (PH) model is commonly used in epidemiology despite the stringent assumption of proportionality of hazards over time. We previously showed, using detailed simulation data, that the impact of a modest risk factor cannot be estimated reliably using the PH model in the presence of confounding by a strong, time-dependent risk factor. Here, we examine the same and related issues using a real dataset. Among 97,303 women in the prospective Nurses' Health Study cohort from 1994 through 2010, we used PH regression to investigate how effect estimates for cigarette smoking are affected by increasingly detailed specification of time-dependent exposure characteristics. We also examined how effect estimates for fine particulate matter (PM2.5), a modest risk factor, are affected by finer control for time-dependent confounding by smoking. The objective of this analysis is not to present a credible estimate of the impact of PM2.5 on lung cancer risk, but to show that estimates based on the PH model are inherently unreliable. The best-fitting model for cigarette smoking and lung cancer included pack-years, duration, time since cessation, and an age-by-pack-years interaction, indicating that the hazard ratio (HR) for pack-years was significantly modified by age. In the fully adjusted best-fitting model for smoking including pack-years, the HR per 10-µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 was 1.06 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.90, 1.25); the HR for PM2.5 in the full cohort ranged between 1.02 and 1.10 in models with other smoking adjustments, indicating a residual confounding effect of smoking. The HR for PM2.5 was statistically significant only among former smokers when adjusting for smoking pack-years (HR = 1.35, 95% CI = 1.00, 1.82 in the best-fitting smoking model), but not in models adjusting for smoking duration and average packs (pack-years divided by duration). The association between cumulative smoking and lung cancer is modified by age, and improved model fit is obtained by including multiple time-varying components of smoking history. The association with PM2.5 is residually confounded by smoking and modified by smoking status. These findings underscore limitations of the PH model and emphasize the advantages of directly estimating hazard functions to characterize time-varying exposure and risk. The hazard function, not the relative hazard, is the fundamental measure of risk in a population. As a consequence, the use of time-dependent PH models does not address crucial issues introduced by temporal factors in epidemiological data.

Evaluation of the antibody response to the EBV proteome in EBV-associated classical Hodgkin lymphoma

The humoral immune response to Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) in classical Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL) stratified by EBV tumor status is unclear. We examined IgG and IgA antibody responses against 202 protein sequences representing 86 EBV proteins using a microarray and sera from 139 EBV-positive cHL cases, 70 EBV-negative cHL cases and 141 population-based controls frequency matched to EBV-positive cHL cases on sex and age by area (UK, Denmark and Sweden). We leveraged existing data on the proportion of circulating B-cells infected by EBV and levels of serum CCL17, a chemokine secreted by cHL tumor cells, from a subset of the cHL cases in the UK. Total IgG but not IgA response level was significantly different between EBV-positive cHL cases and controls. The distinct serological response included significant elevations in 16 IgG antibodies and 2 IgA antibodies, with odds ratios_{highest vs. lowest tertile > 3} observed for the following EBV proteins: LMP1 (oncogene), BcLF1 (VCAp160, two variants) and BBLF1 (two variants). Our cHL IgG signature correlated with the proportion of circulating EBV-infected B-cells, but not serum CCL17 levels. We observed no differences in the anti-EBV antibody profile between EBV-negative cHL cases and controls. BdRF1(VCAp40)-IgG and BZLF1(Zta)-IgG were identified as the serological markers best able to distinguish EBV-positive from EBV-negative cHL tumors. Our results support the hypothesis that differences in the EBV antibody profile are specific to patients with EBV-positive cHL and are not universally observed as part of a systematically dysregulated immune response present in all cHL cases.

Chinese nonmedicinal herbal diet and risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma: A population-based case-control study

BACKGROUND

An association between a nonmedicinal herbal diet and nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) has often been hypothesized but never thoroughly investigated.

METHODS

This study enrolled a total of 2469 patients with incident NPC and 2559 population controls from parts of Guangdong and Guangxi Provinces in southern China between 2010 and 2014. Questionnaire information was collected on the intake of traditional herbal tea and herbal soup as well as the specific herbal plants used in soups and other potentially confounding lifestyle factors. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the NPC risk in association with herbal tea and soup intake.

RESULTS

Ever consumption of herbal tea was not associated with NPC risk (OR, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.91-1.17). An inverse association was observed for NPC among ever drinkers of herbal soup (OR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.67-0.90) but without any monotonic trend with an increasing frequency or duration of herbal soup consumption. Inverse associations with NPC risk were detected with 9 herbal plants used in herbal soup, including Ziziphus jujuba, Fructus lycii, Codonopsis pilosula, Astragalus membranaceus, Semen coicis, Smilax glabra, Phaseolus calcaratus, Morinda officinalis, and Atractylodes macrocephala (OR range, 0.31-0.79).

CONCLUSIONS

Consuming herbal soups including specific plants, but not herbal tea, was inversely associated with NPC. If replicated, these results might provide potential for NPC prevention in endemic areas.

Past and Recent Salted Fish and Preserved Food Intakes Are Weakly Associated with Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Risk in Adults in Southern China

BACKGROUND

Chinese-style salted fish intake in early life is considered an established risk factor for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). However, results for adult intakes of salted fish and preserved foods are inconsistent.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to ascertain the relations of Chinese-style hard and soft salted fish and preserved food intakes with NPC risk.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based case-control study in southern China with 2554 NPC cases identified through a rapid case ascertainment system and 2648 healthy controls, frequency-matched on age, sex, and area. Subjects (aged 20-74 y) were interviewed via a food-frequency questionnaire, including information on portion size. Data were also collected on alcohol consumption and potential confounders. Food intake was grouped into 3-5 energy-adjusted intake levels during adulthood (10 y prior) and adolescence (16-18 y). For childhood (at age 10 y), intake frequency of selected food items was collected. Multivariate-adjusted ORs with 95% CIs were estimated via logistic regression.

RESULTS

We found no association between NPC and intake of hard Chinese-style salted fish during adulthood, and an increased risk at the highest level of intake during adolescence (OR: 1.19; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.39). In contrast, we found a decreased risk for the middle intake level of soft salted fish during adulthood (OR: 0.68; 95% CI: 0.57, 0.81) and adolescence (OR: 0.71; 95% CI: 0.59, 0.85). Preserved foods showed contrasting risk profiles, e.g., the highest adult intake level of salted egg (OR: 1.51; 95% CI: 1.22, 1.87) and fermented black beans (OR: 0.67; 95% CI: 0.56, 0.80). Associations with NPC were weaker than previously reported, e.g., for weekly childhood intake of salted fish (OR: 1.56; 95% CI: 1.24, 1.97).

CONCLUSIONS

Hard and soft salted fish have different risk profiles. Salted fish and other preserved foods were at most weak risk factors for NPC in all periods and may play a smaller role in NPC occurrence than previously thought.

Genome sequencing analysis identifies Epstein-Barr virus subtypes associated with high risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma

Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) infection is ubiquitous worldwide and is associated with multiple cancers, including nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). The importance of EBV viral genomic variation in NPC development and its striking epidemic in southern China has been poorly explored. Through large-scale genome sequencing of 270 EBV isolates and two-stage association study of EBV isolates from China, we identified two non-synonymous EBV variants within BALF2 strongly associated with the risk of NPC (odds ratio (OR) = 8.69, P=9.69×10⁻²⁵ for SNP 162476_C; OR = 6.14, P=2.40×10⁻³² for SNP 163364_T). The cumulative effects of these variants contributed to 83% of the overall risk of NPC in southern China. Phylogenetic analysis of the risk variants revealed a unique origin in Asia, followed by clonal expansion in NPC-endemic regions. Our results provide novel insights into NPC endemic in southern China and also enable the identification of high-risk individuals for NPC prevention.

Whole-genome sequencing and association analysis of 270 Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) isolates from China identify two non-synonymous EBV variants within BALF2 strongly associated with the risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma.

Prevalence of Undetectable Vaccine-Induced Immunity Against Hepatitis B Virus in US Adults at High Risk for Infection

In 2015, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported a substantial increase in the number of acute hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections in the United States. Although national guidelines recommend vaccination of adults at high risk for HBV infection, the prevalence of undetectable immunity (i.e., susceptibility) in this population remains unknown. In this study, we analyzed a nationally representative sample using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey to evaluate the prevalence, trend, and predictors of undetectable vaccine-induced antibodies against HBV surface antigen (<10 mIU/mL) among high-risk adults from 2003-2014. Among adults at high risk for HBV infection, the prevalence of undetectable immunity decreased from 83.2% in 2003-2004 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 81.3-85.0) to 69.4% (about 64 million) in 2013-2014 (95% CI: 66.0-72.6). The prevalence decreased significantly in individuals with multiple sex partners or sexually transmitted disease and in pregnant women. However, there were no significant changes in men who have sex with men (MSMs), intravenous drug users (IDUs), hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected and patients with diabetes, and those with elevated aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase (AST/ALT). Mexican Americans had the highest prevalence of undetectable immunity (77.6%, 95% CI: 72.6-81.9), followed by non-Hispanic whites (70.1%, 95% CI: 66.9-73.1). Older age, lower socioeconomic status, and having at least 1 high-risk factor were associated with a higher risk of undetectable immunity, whereas an increased risk among the foreign-born disappeared after multivariable adjustment. Conclusion: Approximately 64 million high-risk adults in the United States remain susceptible to HBV infection, especially MSMs, IDUs, diabetics, HCV patients, and populations with elevated AST/ALT. To eliminate HBV, efforts should be made to increase screening and vaccination in high-risk adults.

Changes in Renal Function in Patients With Chronic HBV Infection Treated With Tenofovir Disoproxil Fumarate vs Entecavir

BACKGROUND & AIMS

It is unclear whether drugs used to treat chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection cause significant renal impairment. We compare adjusted mean estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR; mL/min/1.73 m²) of patients with chronic HBV infection treated with tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) vs patients treated with entecavir.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective study of patients with chronic HBV infections treated with TDF (n = 239) or entecavir (n = 171), from 2000 through 2016, followed for a mean time of 43-46 months. Levels of serum creatinine were measured ≥12 months while patients received treatment. Patients did not have prior exposure to adefovir or HCV, HDV, or HIV co-infection. We performed propensity score matching (PSM) for age, sex, presence of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, baseline eGFR, cirrhosis, and follow-up duration. We performed multivariate generalized linear modeling, adjusting for cirrhosis, diabetes, and hypertension, to estimate adjusted mean eGFR for matched and unmatched cohorts. Cox regression was used to identify predictors of renal impairment.

RESULTS

eGFRs were ≥60, after PSM, in 116 patients given entecavir and in 116 patients given TDF; eGFRs were <60 in 32 patients given entecavir and 26 patients given TDF. Multivariate generalized linear modeling of the unmatched overall and <60 eGFR cohorts revealed significantly lower adjusted mean eGFRs in patients given TDF (all P < .001). However, in the eGFR ≥60 PSM cohort, the adjusted mean eGFR was similar between patients receiving either treatment. In Cox regression analysis, TDF was not associated with mild or moderate renal impairment compared with entecavir.

CONCLUSION

In a retrospective study of patients with chronic HBV infections treated with TDF vs entecavir, we found that TDF was not associated with higher risk of worsening renal function during short- or intermediate-term follow-up periods, among patients without significant renal impairment. Additional studies, with longer follow-up periods, are needed because treatment for chronic HBV infection is generally long term or life-long. For patients with baseline renal impairment, significant renal decline was among patients given TDF compared to patients given entecavir.

Body mass index, body shape, and risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma: A population-based case-control study in Southern China

Whether the association between body size or shape and nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) risk exists or varies by age-specific body size indicators is unclear. In a population-based case-control study conducted in Southern China between 2010 and 2014, self-reported height, weight, and body shape at age 20 and 10 years before interview were collected from 2448 histopathologically confirmed NPC cases and 2534 population-based controls. Body mass index (BMI) was categorized according to the World Health Organization guidelines for Asian populations: underweight (<18.5 kg/m2 ), normal weight (18.5-22.9 kg/m2 ), overweight (23.0-27.4 kg/m2 ), and obese (≥27.5 kg/m2 ). Multivariate odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using logistic regression. Furthermore, restricted cubic spline analysis was employed to examine nonlinear effects of BMI and body shape as continuous covariates. Underweight vs normal weight at age 20 years was associated with a 22% decreased NPC risk (OR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.67, 0.90), whereas obesity was not significantly associated with NPC risk. Associations with BMI 10 years before the interview were similar. Having the leanest body shape at age 20 years, compared with the mode was not significantly associated with NPC risk (OR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.62, 1.16), but having a larger body shape was associated with an elevated risk (OR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.03, 1.52). Increasing BMI revealed positive trends with NPC risk. Despite some indication of significant findings, evidence for a strong association between BMI or body shape and NPC risk is still limited.

A systematic literature review of epidemiologic studies of developmental manganese exposure and neurodevelopmental outcomes

BACKGROUND

Neurotoxic effects of high-level occupational exposure to manganese (Mn) are well established; however, whether lower-level environmental exposure to Mn in early life causes neurodevelopmental toxicity in children is unclear.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was conducted to identify and evaluate epidemiologic studies of specific Mn biomarkers assessed during gestation, childhood, or adolescence in association with neurodevelopmental outcomes, focusing on quantitative exposure-response estimates with specific endpoints that were assessed in multiple independent study populations. Study quality was evaluated using the revised RTI item bank and the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool, and the overall weight of epidemiologic evidence for causality was evaluated according to the Bradford Hill considerations.

RESULTS

Twenty-two epidemiologic studies were identified that estimated associations between early-life Mn biomarkers and neurodevelopmental outcomes. Seven of these studies provided adjusted estimates for the association with child intelligence assessed using versions of the Wechsler Intelligence Scales for Children; no other specific neurodevelopmental endpoints were assessed in more than three independent study populations each. Among the studies of child intelligence, five studies in four independent populations measured blood Mn, three studies measured hair Mn, and one measured dentin Mn. Overall, cross-sectional associations between Mn biomarkers and measures of child intelligence were mostly statistically nonsignificant but in a negative direction; however, the lone prospective cohort study found mostly null results, with some positive (favorable) associations between dentin Mn and child intelligence. Studies were methodologically limited by their cross-sectional design and potential for confounding and selection bias, as well as unaddressed questions on exposure assessment validity and biological plausibility.

CONCLUSIONS

The statistical associations reported in the few studies of specific Mn biomarkers and specific neurodevelopmental endpoints do not establish causal effects based on the Bradford Hill considerations. Additional prospective cohort studies of Mn biomarkers and validated neurodevelopmental outcomes, and a better understanding of the etiologic relevance of Mn biomarkers, are needed to shed light on whether environmental exposure to Mn causes adverse neurodevelopmental effects in children.

Reproductive history and risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma: A population-based case-control study in southern China

OBJECTS

Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) incidence exhibits a remarkable sex disparity, with higher risk among males. Whether this pattern can be partly explained by female reproductive history is unclear.

METHODS

A population-based case-control study of NPC was conducted in southern China between 2010 and 2014, including 674 histopathologically verified female NPC cases and 690 female controls randomly selected from population-based registries. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using logistic regression after adjusting for potential confounders.

RESULTS

Women who had 3, 4, or ≥5 pregnancies compared with 2 pregnancies were at significantly increased risk for NPC (ORs 1.56, 1.45 and 1.88, respectively). History of deliveries was similarly associated with a greater risk of NPC. These positive associations were more prominent in women who were younger than 50 years, had less than 10 years of education, or were white-collar workers. Increasing time since menopause was associated with a diminished NPC risk (P_trend = 0.010). Women more than 15 years after menopause had a 0.35-fold (95% CI: 0.16-0.75) NPC risk compared with those 0-3 years after menopause.

CONCLUSION

Contrary to our hypothesis, a history of pregnancy or delivery increased the risk of NPC and the risk decreased with increasing time since menopause. However, the non-linear relationship and no consistent risk patterns across strata indicate that the observed associations are unlikely to be causal, and may at least partially be ascribed to residual confounding by socioeconomic factors.

Impact of chloroform exposures on reproductive and developmental outcomes: A systematic review of the scientific literature

AIMS

We assessed the animal and epidemiological data to determine if chloroform exposure causes developmental and/or reproductive toxicity.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Initial scoping identified developmental toxicity as the primary area of concern. At levels producing maternal toxicity in rats and mice, chloroform caused decrements in fetal weights and associated delays in ossification. In a single mouse inhalation study, exposure to a high concentration of chloroform was associated with small fetuses and increased cleft palate. However, oral exposure of mice to chloroform at a dose 4 times higher was negative for cleft palate; multiple inhalation studies in rats were also negative. Epidemiologic data on low birth weight and small for gestational age were generally equivocal, preventing conclusions from being drawn for humans. The animal data also show evidence of very early (peri-implantation) total litter losses at very high exposure levels. This effect is likely maternally mediated rather than a direct effect on the offspring. Finally, the epidemiologic data indicate a possible association of higher chloroform exposure with lower risk of preterm birth (<37 weeks gestation).

CONCLUSIONS

The available animal data suggest that exposures lower than those causing maternal toxicity should be without developmental effects in the offspring. Also, most studies in humans rely on group-level geographic exposure data, providing only weak epidemiologic evidence for an association with development outcomes and fail to establish a causal role for chloroform in the induction of adverse developmental outcomes at environmentally relevant concentrations.

Medical History, Medication Use, and Risk of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

Because persistent inflammation may render the nasopharyngeal mucosa susceptible to carcinogenesis, chronic ear-nose-throat (ENT) disease and its treatment might influence the risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Existing evidence is, however, inconclusive and often based on methodologically suboptimal epidemiologic studies. In a population-based case-control study in southern China, we enrolled 2,532 persons with NPC and 2,597 controls, aged 20-74 years, from 2010 to 2014. Odds ratios were estimated for associations between NPC risk and history of ENT and related medications. Any history of chronic ENT disease was associated with a 34% increased risk of NPC. Similarly, use of nasal drops or aspirin was associated with approximately doubled risk of NPC. However, in secondary analyses restricted to chronic ENT diseases and related medication use at least 5 years prior to diagnosis/interview, most results were statistically nonsignificant, except a history of uncured ENT diseases, untreated nasal polyps, and earlier age at first diagnosis of ENT disease and first or most recent aspirin use. Overall, these findings suggest that ENT disease and related medication use are most likely early indications rather than causes of NPC, although the possibility of a modestly increased NPC risk associated with these diseases and related medications cannot be excluded.

Are We Winning or Losing the Battle With Periprosthetic Joint Infection: Trends in Periprosthetic Joint Infection and Mortality Risk for the Medicare Population

BACKGROUND

Periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) is a potentially deadly complication of total joint arthroplasty. This study was designed to address how the incidence of PJI and outcome of treatment, including mortality, are changing in the population over time.

METHODS

Primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) patients with PJI from the 100% Medicare inpatient data set (2005-2015) were identified. Cox proportional hazards regression models for risk of PJI after THA/TKA (accounting for competing risks) or risk of all-cause mortality after PJI were adjusted for patient and clinical factors, with year included as a covariate to test for time trends.

RESULTS

The unadjusted 1-year and 5-year risk of PJI was 0.69% and 1.09% for THA and 0.74% and 1.38% for TKA, respectively. After adjustment, PJI risk did not change significantly by year for THA (P = .63) or TKA (P = .96). The unadjusted 1-year and 5-year overall survival after PJI diagnosis was 88.7% and 67.2% for THA and 91.7% and 71.7% for TKA, respectively. After adjustment, the risk of mortality after PJI decreased significantly by year for THA (hazard ratio = 0.97; P < .001) and TKA (hazard ratio = 0.97; P < .001).

CONCLUSION

Despite recent clinical focus on preventing PJI, we are unable to detect substantial decline in the risk of PJI over time, although mortality after PJI has declined. Because PJI risk appears not to be changing over time, the incidence of PJI is anticipated to scale up proportionately with the demand for THA and TKA, which is projected to increase substantially in the coming decade.

Reanalysis of Diesel Engine Exhaust and Lung Cancer Mortality in the Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study Cohort Using Alternative Exposure Estimates and Radon Adjustment

The Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study (DEMS) (United States, 1947–1997) reported positive associations between diesel engine exhaust exposure, estimated as respirable elemental carbon (REC), and lung cancer mortality. This reanalysis of the DEMS cohort used an alternative estimate of REC exposure incorporating historical data on diesel equipment, engine horsepower, ventilation rates, and declines in particulate matter emissions per horsepower. Associations with cumulative REC and average REC intensity using the alternative REC estimate and other exposure estimates were generally attenuated compared with original DEMS REC estimates. Most findings were statistically nonsignificant; control for radon exposure substantially weakened associations with the original and alternative REC estimates. No association with original or alternative REC estimates was detected among miners who worked exclusively underground. Positive associations were detected among limestone workers, whereas no association with REC or radon was found among workers in the other 7 mines. The differences in results based on alternative exposure estimates, control for radon, and stratification by worker location or mine type highlight areas of uncertainty in the DEMS data.