Differences of survival benefits brought by various treatments in ovarian cancer patients with different tumor stages

PURPOSE

The current study aimed to explore the prognosis of ovarian cancer patients in different subgroup using three prognostic research indexes. The current study aimed to build a prognostic model for ovarian cancer patients.

METHODS

The study dataset was downloaded from Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results database. Accelerated Failure Time algorithm was used to construct a prognostic model for ovary cancer.

RESULTS

The mortality rate in the model group was 51.6% (9,314/18,056), while the mortality rate in the validation group was 52.1% (6,358/12,199). The current study constructed a prognostic model for ovarian cancer patients. The C indexes were 0.741 (95% confidence interval: 0.731-0.751) in model dataset and 0.738 (95% confidence interval: 0.726-0.750) in validation dataset. Brier score was 0.179 for model dataset and validation dataset. The C indexes were 0.741 (95% confidence interval: 0.733-0.749) in bootstrap internal validation dataset. Brier score was 0.178 for bootstrap internal validation dataset.

CONCLUSION

The current research indicated that there were significant differences in the survival benefits of treatments among ovarian cancer patients with different stages. The current research developed an individual mortality risk predictive system that could provide valuable predictive information for ovarian cancer patients.

Prognostic models of quality of life after total knee replacement: A systematic review

OBJECTIVE

To systematically review and critically appraise prognostic models for quality of life (QOL) in patients with total knee replacement (TKA).

METHODS

Subjects were TKA recipients recruited from inpatient postoperative settings. Searches were made on June 2022 and updated on April 2023. Databases included PubMed.gov, CINAHL, The Cochrane Library, Web of Science. Two authors performed all review stages independently. Risk of bias assessments on participants, predictors, outcomes and analysis methods followed the Prediction study Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST).

RESULTS

After screening 2204 studies, 9 were eligible for inclusion. Twelve prognostic models were reported, of which 10 models were developed from data without validation and 2 were both developed and validated. The most frequently applied predictor was the pre-TKA QOL score. Discriminatory measures were reported for 9 (75.0%) models with areas under the curve values of 0.66-0.95. All models showed a high risk of bias, mostly due to limitations in statistical methods and outcome assessments.

CONCLUSION

Several prognostic models have been developed for QOL in patients with TKA, but all models show a high risk of bias and are unreliable in clinical practice. Future, prognostic models overcoming the risk of bias identified in this study are needed.

Establishment and verification of prognostic model and ceRNA network analysis for colorectal cancer liver metastasis

OBJECTS

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the most common cancers in the world. Approximately two-thirds of patients with CRC will develop colorectal cancer liver metastases (CRLM) at some point in time. In this study, we aimed to construct a prognostic model of CRLM and its competing endogenous RNA (ceRNA) network.

METHODS

RNA-seq of CRC, CRLM and normal samples were obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and Gene Expression Omnibus database. Limma was used to obtain differential expression genes (DEGs) between CRLM and CRC from sequencing data and GSE22834, and Gene Ontology and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes functional enrichment analyses were performed, respectively. Univariate Cox regression analysis and lasso Cox regression models were performed to screen prognostic gene features and construct prognostic models. Functional enrichment, estimation of stromal and immune cells in malignant tumor tissues using expression data (ESTIMATE) algorithm, single-sample gene set enrichment analysis, and ceRNA network construction were applied to explore potential mechanisms.

RESULTS

An 8-gene prognostic model was constructed by screening 112 DEGs from TCGA and GSE22834. CRC patients in the TCGA and GSE29621 cohorts were stratified into either a high-risk group or a low-risk group. Patients with CRC in the high-risk group had a significantly poorer prognosis compared to in the low-risk group. The risk score was identified as an independent predictor of prognosis. Functional analysis revealed that the risk score was closly correlated with various immune cells and immune-related signaling pathways. And a prognostic gene-associated ceRNA network was constructed that obtained 3 prognosis gene, 14 microRNAs (miRNAs) and 7 long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs).

CONCLUSIONS

In conclusion, a prognostic model for CRLM identification was proposed, which could independently identify high-risk patients with low survival, suggesting a relationship between local immune status and prognosis of CRLM. Moreover, the key prognostic genes-related ceRNA network were established for the CRC investigation. Based on the differentially expressed genes between CRLM and CRC, the prognosis model of CRC patients was constructed.

An innovative model based on N7-methylguanosine-related lncRNAs for forecasting prognosis and tumor immune landscape in bladder cancer

BACKGROUND

As a novel type of the prevalent post-transcriptional modifications, N7-methylguanosine (m7G) modification is essential in the tumorigenesis, progression, and invasion of many cancers, including bladder cancer (BCa). However, the integrated roles of m7G-related lncRNAs in BCa remain undiscovered. This study aims to develop a prognostic model based on the m7G-related lncRNAs and explore its predictive value of the prognosis and anti-cancer treatment sensitivity.

METHODS

We obtained RNA-seq data and corresponding clinicopathological information from the TCGA database and collected m7G-related genes from previous studies and GSEA. Based on LASSO and Cox regression analysis, we developed a m7G prognostic model. The Kaplan-Meier (K-M) survival analysis and ROC curves were performed to evaluate the predictive power of the model. Gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) was conducted to explore the molecular mechanisms behind apparent discrepancies between the low- and high-risk groups. We also investigated immune cell infiltration, TIDE score, TMB, the sensitivity of common chemotherapy drugs, and the response to immunotherapy between the two risk groups. Finally, we validated the expression levels of these ten m7G-related lncRNAs in BCa cell lines by qRT-PCR.

RESULTS

We developed a m7G prognostic model (risk score) composed of 10 m7G-related lncRNAs that are significantly associated with the OS of BCa patients. The K-M survival curves revealed that the high-risk group patients had significantly worse OS than those in the low-risk group. The Cox regression analysis confirmed that the risk score was a significant independent prognostic factor for BCa patients. We found that the high-risk group had higher the immune scores and immune cell infiltration. Furthermore, the results of the sensitivity of common anti-BCa drugs showed that the high-risk group was more sensitive to neoadjuvant cisplatin-based chemotherapy and anti-PD1 immunotherapy. Finally, qRT-PCR revealed that AC006058.1, AC073133.2, LINC00677, and LINC01338 were significantly downregulated in BCa cell lines, while the expression levels of AC124312.2 and AL158209.1 were significantly upregulated in BCa cell lines compared with normal cell lines.

CONCLUSION

The m7G prognostic model can be applied to accurately predict the prognosis and provide robust directions for clinicians to develop better individual-based and precise treatment strategies for BCa patients.

BIO-CXRNET: a robust multimodal stacking machine learning technique for mortality risk prediction of COVID-19 patients using chest X-ray images and clinical data

Nowadays, quick, and accurate diagnosis of COVID-19 is a pressing need. This study presents a multimodal system to meet this need. The presented system employs a machine learning module that learns the required knowledge from the datasets collected from 930 COVID-19 patients hospitalized in Italy during the first wave of COVID-19 (March-June 2020). The dataset consists of twenty-five biomarkers from electronic health record and Chest X-ray (CXR) images. It is found that the system can diagnose low- or high-risk patients with an accuracy, sensitivity, and F1-score of 89.03%, 90.44%, and 89.03%, respectively. The system exhibits 6% higher accuracy than the systems that employ either CXR images or biomarker data. In addition, the system can calculate the mortality risk of high-risk patients using multivariate logistic regression-based nomogram scoring technique. Interested physicians can use the presented system to predict the early mortality risks of COVID-19 patients using the web-link: Covid-severity-grading-AI. In this case, a physician needs to input the following information: CXR image file, Lactate Dehydrogenase (LDH), Oxygen Saturation (O2%), White Blood Cells Count, C-reactive protein, and Age. This way, this study contributes to the management of COVID-19 patients by predicting early mortality risk.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00521-023-08606-w.

A subregion-based prediction model for local-regional recurrence risk in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Given that the intratumoral heterogeneity of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma may be related to the local control rate of radiotherapy, the aim of this study was to construct a subregion-based model that can predict the risk of local-regional recurrence, and to quantitatively assess the relative contribution of subregions.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The CT images, PET images, dose images and GTVs of 228 patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma from four different institutions of the The Cancer Imaging Archive(TCIA) were included in the study. Using a supervoxel segmentation algorithm called maskSLIC to generate individual-level subregions. After extracting 1781 radiomics and 1767 dosiomics features from subregions, an attention-based multiple instance risk prediction model (MIR) was established. The GTV model was developed based on the whole tumour area and was used to compare the prediction performance with the MIR model. Furthermore, the MIR-Clinical model was constructed by integrating the MIR model with clinical factors. Subregional analysis was carried out through the Wilcoxon test to find the differential radiomic features between the highest and lowest weighted subregions.

RESULTS

Compared with the GTV model, the C-index of MIR model was significantly increased from 0.624 to 0.721(Wilcoxon test, p value< 0.0001). When MIR model was combined with clinical factors, the C-index was further increased to 0.766. Subregional analysis showed that for LR patients, the top three differential radiomic features between the highest and lowest weighted subregions were GLRLM_ShortRunHighGrayLevelEmphasis, GRLM_HghGrayLevelRunEmphasis and GLRLM_LongRunHighGrayLevelEmphasis.

CONCLUSION

This study developed a subregion-based model that can predict the risk of local-regional recurrence and quantitatively assess relevant subregions, which may provide technical support for the precision radiotherapy in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma.

External validation of 87 clinical prediction models supporting clinical decisions for breast cancer patients

INTRODUCTION

Numerous prediction models have been developed to support treatment-related decisions for breast cancer patients. External validation, a prerequisite for implementation in clinical practice, has been performed for only a few models. This study aims to externally validate published clinical prediction models using population-based Dutch data.

METHODS

Patient-, tumor- and treatment-related data were derived from the Netherlands Cancer Registry (NCR). Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), scaled Brier score, and model calibration. Net benefit across applicable risk thresholds was evaluated with decision curve analysis.

RESULTS

After assessing 922 models, 87 (9%) were included for validation. Models were excluded due to an incomplete model description (n = 262 (28%)), lack of required data (n = 521 (57%)), previously validated or developed with NCR data (n = 45 (5%)), or the associated NCR sample size was insufficient (n = 7 (1%)). The included models predicted survival (33 (38%) overall, 27 (31%) breast cancer-specific, and 3 (3%) other cause-specific), locoregional recurrence (n = 7 (8%)), disease free survival (n = 7 (8%)), metastases (n = 5 (6%)), lymph node involvement (n = 3 (3%)), pathologic complete response (n = 1 (1%)), and surgical margins (n = 1 (1%)). Seven models (8%) showed poor (AUC<0.6), 39 (45%) moderate (AUC:0.6-0.7), 38 (46%) good (AUC:0.7-0.9), and 3 (3%) excellent (AUC≥0.9) discrimination. Using the scaled Brier score, worse performance than an uninformative model was found in 34 (39%) models.

CONCLUSION

Comprehensive registry data supports broad validation of published prediction models. Model performance varies considerably in new patient populations, affirming the importance of external validation studies before applying models in clinical practice. Well performing models could be clinically useful in a Dutch setting after careful impact evaluation.

An inflammatory-related genes signature based model for prognosis prediction in breast cancer

Background

Breast cancer has become the most common malignant tumor in the world. It is vital to discover novel prognostic biomarkers despite the fact that the majority of breast cancer patients have a good prognosis because of the high heterogeneity of breast cancer, which causes the disparity in prognosis. Recently, inflammatory-related genes have been proven to play an important role in the development and progression of breast cancer, so we set out to investigate the predictive usefulness of inflammatory-related genes in breast malignancies.

Methods

We assessed the connection between Inflammatory-Related Genes (IRGs) and breast cancer by studying the TCGA database. Following differential and univariate Cox regression analysis, prognosis-related differentially expressed inflammatory genes were estimated. The prognostic model was constructed through the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selector Operation (LASSO) regression based on the IRGs. The accuracy of the prognostic model was then evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves. The nomogram model was established to predict the survival rate of breast cancer patients clinically. Based on the prognostic expression, we also looked at immune cell infiltration and the function of immune-related pathways. The CellMiner database was used to research drug sensitivity.

Results

In this study, 7 IRGs were selected to construct a prognostic risk model. Further research revealed a negative relationship between the risk score and the prognosis of breast cancer patients. The ROC curve proved the accuracy of the prognostic model, and the nomogram accurately predicted survival rate. The scores of tumor-infiltrating immune cells and immune-related pathways were utilized to calculate the differences between the low- and high-risk groups, and then explored the relationship between drug susceptibility and the genes that were included in the model.

Conclusion

These findings contributed to a better understanding of the function of inflammatory-related genes in breast cancer, and the prognostic risk model provides a potentially promising prognostic strategy for breast cancer.

Construction of a pancreatic cancer prediction model for oxidative stress-related lncRNA

Long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) may play a role in oxidative stress by altering the tumor microenvironment, thereby affecting pancreatic cancer progression. There is currently limited information on oxidative stress-related lncRNAs as novel prognostic markers of pancreatic cancer. Gene expression and clinical data of patients with pancreatic cancer were downloaded from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA-PAAD) and the International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC-PACA) database. A weighted gene co-expression network analysis (WGCNA) was constructed to identify genes that were differentially expressed between normal and tumor samples. Based on the TCGA-PAAD cohort, a prediction model was established using lasso regression and Cox regression. The TCGA-PAAD and ICGC-PACA cohorts were used for internal and external validation, respectively. Furthermore, a nomogram based on clinical characteristics was used to predict mortality of patients. Differences in mutational status and tumor-infiltrating immune cells between risk subgroups were also explored and model-based lncRNAs were analyzed for potential immune-related therapeutic drugs. A prediction model for 6-lncRNA was established using lasso regression and Cox regression. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves indicated that patients with lower risk scores had a better prognosis. Combined with Cox regression analysis of clinical features, risk score was an independent factor predicting overall survival of patients with pancreatic cancer in both the TCGA-PAAD and ICGC-PACA cohorts. Mutation status and immune-related analysis indicated that the high-risk group had a significantly higher gene mutation rate and a higher possibility of immune escape, respectively. Furthermore, the model genes showed a strong correlation with immune-related therapeutic drugs. A pancreatic cancer prediction model based on oxidative stress-related lncRNA was established, which may be used as a biomarker related to the prognosis of pancreatic cancer to evaluate the prognosis of pancreatic cancer patients.

A novel NHEJ gene signature based model for risk stratification and prognosis prediction in hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Non-homologous DNA end joining (NHEJ) is the predominant DNA double-strand break (DSB) repair pathway in human. However, the relationship between NHEJ pathway and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is unclear. We aimed to explore the potential prognostic role of NHEJ genes and to develop an NHEJ-based prognosis signature for HCC.

METHODS

Two cohorts from public database were incorporated into this study. The Kaplan-Meier curve, the Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis, and Cox analyses were implemented to determine the prognostic genes. A NHEJ-related risk model was created and verified by independent cohorts. We derived enriched pathways between the high- and low-risk groups using Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA). CIBERSORT and microenvironment cell populations-counter algorithm were used to perform immune infiltration analysis. XRCC6 is a core NHEJ gene and immunohistochemistry (IHC) was further performed to elucidate the prognostic impact. In vitro proliferation assays were conducted to investigate the specific effect of XRCC6.

RESULTS

A novel NHEJ-related risk model was developed based on 6 NHEJ genes and patients were divided into distinct risk groups according to the risk score. The high-risk group had a poorer survival than those in the low-risk group (P < 0.001). Meanwhile, an obvious discrepancy in the landscape of the immune microenvironment also indicated that distinct immune status might be a potential determinant affecting prognosis as well as immunotherapy reactiveness. High XRCC6 expression level associates with poor outcome in HCC. Moreover, XRCC6 could promote HCC cell proliferation in vitro.

CONCLUSIONS

In brief, this work reveals a novel NHEJ-related risk signature for prognostic evaluation of HCC patients, which may be a potential biomarker of HCC immunotherapy.

External validation of the PROLOGUE score to predict neurological outcome in adult patients after cardiac arrest: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The PROLOGUE score (PROgnostication using LOGistic regression model for Unselected adult cardiac arrest patients in the Early stages) is a novel prognostic model for the prediction of neurological outcome after cardiac arrest, which showed exceptional performance in the internal validation. The aim of this study is to validate the PROLOGUE score in an independent cohort of unselected adult cardiac arrest patients and to compare it to the thoroughly validated Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest (OHCA) and Cardiac Arrest Hospital Prognosis (CAHP) scores.

METHODS

This study included consecutive adult cardiac arrest patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) of a Swiss tertiary teaching hospital between October 2012 and July 2022. The primary endpoint was poor neurological outcome at hospital discharge, defined as a Cerebral Performance Category (CPC) score of 3 to 5 including death.

RESULTS

Of 687 patients included in the analysis, 321 (46.7%) survived to hospital discharge with good neurological outcome, 68 (9.9%) survived with poor neurological outcome and 298 (43.4%) died. The PROLOGUE score showed an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.83 (95% CI 0.80 to 0.86) and good calibration for the prediction of the primary outcome. The OHCA and CAHP score showed similar performance (AUROC 0.83 and 0.84 respectively), the differences between the three scores were not significant (p = 0.495). In a subgroup analysis, the PROLOGUE score performed equally in out-of-hospital and in-hospital cardiac arrest patients whereas the OHCA and CAHP score performed significantly better in OHCA patients.

CONCLUSION

The PROLOGUE score showed good prognostic accuracy for the early prediction of neurological outcome in adult cardiac arrest survivors in our cohort and might support early goals-of-care discussions in the ICU. Trial registration Not applicable.

Stemness-related lncRNAs signature as a biologic prognostic model for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

Cancer stem cells (CSCs) and long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) are particularly important for tumor cell growth and migration, and recurrence and drug resistance, including head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). The purpose of this study was to explore stemness-related lncRNAs (SRlncRNAs) that could be used for prognosis of patients with HNSCC. HNSCC RNA sequencing data and matched clinical data were obtained from TCGA database, and stem cell characteristic genes related to HNSCC mRNAsi were obtained from the online database by WGCNA analysis, respectively. Further, SRlncRNAs were obtained. Then, the prognostic model was constructed to forecast patient survival through univariate Cox regression and LASSO-Cox method based on SRlncRNAs. Kaplan-Meier, ROC and AUC were used to evaluate the predictive ability of the model. Moreover, we probed the underlying biological functions, signalling pathways and immune status hidden within differences in prognosis of patients. We explored whether the model could guide personalized treatments included immunotherapy and chemotherapy for HNSCC patients. At last, RT-qPCR was performed to analyze the expressions levels of SRlncRNAs in HNSCC cell lines. A SRlncRNAs signature was identified based on 5 SRlncRNAs (AC004943.2, AL022328.1, MIR9-3HG, AC015878.1 and FOXD2-AS1) in HNSCC. Also, risk scores were correlated with the abundance of tumor-infiltrating immune cells, whereas HNSCC-nominated chemotherapy drugs were considerably different from one another. The final finding was that these SRlncRNAs were abnormally expressed in HNSCCCS according to the results of RT-qPCR. These 5 SRlncRNAs signature, as a potential prognostic biomarker, can be utilized for personalized medicine in HNSCC patients.

Development and validation of cuproptosis-related lncRNA signatures for prognosis prediction in colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Cuproptosis, a novel form of programmed cell death, plays an essential role in various cancers. However, studies of the function of cuproptosis lncRNAs (CRLs) in colorectal cancer (CRC) remain limited. Thus, this study aims to identify the cuprotosis-related lncRNAs (CRLs) in CRC and to construct the potential prognostic CRLs signature model in CRC.

METHODS

First, we downloaded RNA-Seq data and clinical information of CRC patients from TCGA database and obtained the prognostic CRLs based on typical expression analysis of cuproptosis-related genes (CRGs) and univariate Cox regression. Then, we constructed a prognostic model using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator algorithm combined with multiple Cox regression methods (Lasso-Cox). Next, we generated Kaplan-Meier survival and receiver operating characteristic curves to estimate the performance of the prognostic model. In addition, we also analysed the relationships between risk signatures and immune infiltration, mutation, and drug sensitivity. Finally, we performed quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT -PCR) to verify the prognostic model.

RESULT

Lasso-Cox analysis revealed that four CRLs, SNHG16, LENG8-AS1, LINC0225, and RPARP-AS1, were related to CRC prognosis. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and Kaplan-Meier analysis curves indicated that this model performs well in prognostic predictions of CRC patients. The DCA results also showed that the model included four gene signatures was better than the traditional model. In addition, GO and KEGG analyses revealed that DE-CRLs are enriched in critical signalling pathway, such as chemical carcinogenesis-DNA adducts and basal cell carcinoma. Immune infiltration analysis revealed significant differences in immune infiltration cells between the high-risk and low-risk groups. Furthermore, significant differences in somatic mutations were noted between the high-risk and low-risk groups. Finally, we also validated the expression of four CRLs in FHCs cell lines and CRC cell lines using qRT-PCR.

CONCLUSION

The signature composed of SNHG16, LENG8-AS1, LINC0225, and RPARP-AS1, which has better performance in predicting colorectal cancer prognosis and are promising biomarkers for prognosis prediction of CRC.

External validation and updating of prognostic models for predicting recovery of disability in people with (sub)acute neck pain was successful: broad external validation in a new prospective cohort

QUESTION

Can existing post-treatment prognostic models for predicting neck pain recovery (primarily in terms of disability and secondarily in terms of pain intensity and perceived improvement) be externally validated and updated at the end of the treatment period and at 6 and 12 weeks of follow-up in a new Dutch cohort of people with neck pain treated with guideline-based usual care physiotherapy?

DESIGN

External validation and model updating in a new prospective cohort of three previously developed prognostic models.

PARTICIPANTS

People with (sub)acute neck pain and registered for primary care physiotherapy treatment.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Recovery of disability, pain intensity, and perceived recovery at 6 and 12 weeks and at the end of the treatment period.

RESULTS

Discriminative performance (c-statistic) of the disability model at 6 weeks was 0.73 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.77) and reasonably well calibrated after intercept recalibration. The disability model at 12 weeks and at the end of the treatment period showed discriminative c-statistic performance values of 0.69 (95% CI 0.64 to 0.73) and 0.68 (95% CI 0.63 to 0.72), respectively, and was well calibrated. Pain models and perceived recovery models did not reach acceptable performance. Cervical mobility added value to the disability models and pain catastrophising to the disability and pain models at 6 weeks.

DISCUSSION

Broad external validation of the disability model was successful in people with (sub)acute neck pain and clinicians may use this model in clinical practice with reasonable accuracy. Further research is required to assess the disability model's clinical impact and generalisability, and to identify additional valuable model predictors.

REGISTRATION

https://osf.io/a6r3k/.

Seven bacterial response-related genes are biomarkers for colon cancer

BACKGROUND

Colon cancer (CC) is a common tumor that causes significant harm to human health. Bacteria play a vital role in cancer biology, particularly the biology of CC. Genes related to bacterial response were seldom used to construct prognosis models. We constructed a bacterial response-related risk model based on three Molecular Signatures Database gene sets to explore new markers for predicting CC prognosis.

METHODS

The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) colon adenocarcinoma samples were used as the training set, and Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) databases were used as the test set. Differentially expressed bacterial response-related genes were identified for prognostic gene selection. Univariate Cox regression analysis, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator-penalized Cox regression analysis, and multivariate Cox regression analysis were performed to construct a prognostic risk model. The individual diagnostic effects of genes in the prognostic model were also evaluated. Moreover, differentially expressed long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) were identified. Finally, the expression of these genes was validated using quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) in cell lines and tissues.

RESULTS

A prognostic signature was constructed based on seven bacterial response genes: LGALS4, RORC, DDIT3, NSUN5, RBCK1, RGL2, and SERPINE1. Patients were assigned a risk score based on the prognostic model, and patients in the TCGA cohort with a high risk score had a poorer prognosis than those with a low risk score; a similar finding was observed in the GEO cohort. These seven prognostic model genes were also independent diagnostic factors. Finally, qPCR validated the differential expression of the seven model genes and two coexpressed lncRNAs (C6orf223 and SLC12A9-AS1) in 27 pairs of CC and normal tissues. Differential expression of LGALS4 and NSUN5 was also verified in cell lines (FHC, COLO320DM, SW480).

CONCLUSIONS

We created a seven-gene bacterial response-related gene signature that can accurately predict the outcomes of patients with CC. This model can provide valuable insights for personalized treatment.

Prognostic subtypes of thyroid cancer was constructed based on single cell and bulk-RNA sequencing data and verified its authenticity

There has been an increase in the mortality rate of thyroid cancer (THCA), which is the most common endocrine malignancy. We identified six distinct cell types in the THAC microenvironment by analyzing single-cell RNA sequencing (Sc-RNAseq) data from 23 THCA tumor samples, indicating high intratumoral heterogeneity. Through re-dimensional clustering of immune subset cells, myeloid cells, cancer-associated fibroblasts, and thyroid cell subsets, we deeply reveal differences in the tumor microenvironment of thyroid cancer. Through an in-depth analysis of thyroid cell subsets, we identified the process of thyroid cell deterioration (normal, intermediate, malignant cells). Through cell-to-cell communication analysis, we found a strong link between thyroid cells and fibroblasts and B cells in the MIF signaling pathway. In addition, we found a strong correlation between thyroid cells and B cells, TampNK cells, and bone marrow cells. Finally, we developed a prognostic model based on differentially expressed genes in thyroid cells from single-cell analysis. Both in the training set and the testing set, it can effectively predict the survival of thyroid patients. In addition, we identified significant differences in the composition of immune cell subsets between high-risk and low-risk patients, which may be responsible for their different prognosis. Through in vitro experiments, we identify that knockdown of NPC2 can significantly promote thyroid cancer cell apoptosis, and NPC2 may be a potential therapeutic target for thyroid cancer. In this study, we developed a well-performing prognostic model based on Sc-RNAseq data, revealing the cellular microenvironment and tumor heterogeneity of thyroid cancer. This will help to provide more accurate personalized treatment for patients in clinical diagnosis.

Risk prediction models for diabetic foot ulcer development or amputation: a review of reviews

BACKGROUND

In adults with diabetes, diabetic foot ulcer (DFU) and amputation are common and associated with significant morbidity and mortality.

PURPOSE

Identify tools predicting risk of DFU or amputation that are prognostically accurate and clinically feasible.

METHODS

We searched for systematic reviews (SRs) of tools predicting DFU or amputation published in multiple databases from initiation to January, 2023. We assessed risk of bias (ROB) and provided a narrative review of reviews describing performance characteristics (calibration and discrimination) of prognostically accurate tools. For such tools, we additionally reviewed original studies to ascertain clinical applicability and usability (variables included, score calculation, and risk categorization).

RESULTS

We identified 3 eligible SRs predicting DFU or amputation risk. Two recent SRs (2020 and 2021) were rated as moderate and low ROB respectively. Four risk prediction models - Boyko, Martins-Mendes (simplified), Martins-Mendes (original), and PODUS 2020 had good prognostic accuracy for predicting DFU or amputation over time horizons ranging from 1- to 5-years. PODUS 2020 predicts absolute average risk (e.g., 6% risk of DFU at 2 years) and consists of 3-binary variables with a simple, summative scoring (0-4) making it feasible for clinic use. The other 3 models categorize risk subjectively (e.g., high-risk for DFU at 3 years), include 2-7 variables, and require a calculation device. No data exist to inform rescreening intervals. Furthermore, the effectiveness of targeted interventions in decreasing incidence of DFU or amputation in response to prediction scores is unknown.

CONCLUSIONS

In this review of reviews, we identified 4 prognostically accurate models that predict DFU or amputation in persons with diabetes. The PODUS 2020 model, predicting absolute average DFU risk at 2 years, has the most favorable prognostic accuracy and is clinically feasible. Rescreening intervals and effectiveness of intervention based on prediction score are uncertain.

A novel cuproptosis-related gene signature to predict prognosis in Glioma

Glioma is primary brain tumour with a poor prognosis. Metabolic reprogramming is a hallmark of glioma, and is critical in the development of antiglioma agents and glioma therapy. Cuproptosis is a novel form of cell death mediated by protein lipidation and highly associated with mitochondrial metabolism. However, the clinical impact of cuproptosis-related genes (CRGs) in glioma remains largely unknown. The purpose of this study is to create a new CRGs signature that can be used to predict survival and immunotherapy in glioma patients. LASSO regression analysis was applied to establish prognostic gene signatures. Furthermore, a CRGs signature-based nomogram was developed and demonstrated good predictive potential. We also analyzed the relationship of CRGs and immune infiltration and the correlation with the pathological grade of glioma. Finally, we explored the miRNA that may regulate cuproptosis-related gene FDX1. We found that miR-606 was markedly downregulated in GBM, overexpression of miR-606 can significantly inhibit aerobic glycolysis and proliferation of GBM cells. FDX1 was upregulated in GBM, knockdown of FDX1 significantly inhibit aerobic glycolysis and proliferation of GBM cells. And luciferase assay was used to verified that miR-606 binds to and regulates FDX1 mRNA. These results provide a basis for further exploring the biological mechanisms of cuproptosis. This study may provide new potential therapeutic perspectives for patients with glioma.

Development and validation of an RBP gene signature for prognosis prediction in colorectal cancer based on WGCNA

BACKGROUND

RNA binding proteins (RBPs) have been implicated in oncogenesis and progression in various cancers. However, the potential value of RBPs as prognostic indicators and therapeutic targets in colorectal cancer (CRC) requires further investigation.

METHODS

Four thousand eighty two RBPs were collected from literature. The weighted gene co-expression network analysis (WGCNA) was performed to identify prognosis-related RBP gene modules based on the data attained from the TCGA cohorts. LASSO algorithm was conducted to establish a prognostic risk model, and the validity of the proposed model was confirmed by an independent GEO dataset. Functional enrichment analysis was performed to reveal the potential biological functions and pathways of the signature and to estimate tumor immune infiltration. Potential therapeutic compounds were inferred utilizing CMap database. Expressions of hub genes were further verified through the Human Protein Atlas (HPA) database and RT-qPCR.

RESULTS

One thousand seven hundred thirty four RBPs were differently expressed in CRC samples and 4 gene modules remarkably linked to the prognosis were identified, based on which a 12-gene signature was established for prognosis prediction. Multivariate Cox analysis suggested this signature was an independent predicting factor of overall survival (P < 0.001; HR:3.682; CI:2.377-5.705) and ROC curves indicated it has an effective predictive performance (1-year AUC: 0.653; 3-year AUC:0.673; 5-year AUC: 0.777). GSEA indicated that high risk score was correlated with several cancer-related pathways, including cytokine-cytokine receptor cross talk, ECM receptor cross talk, HEDGEHOG signaling cascade and JAK/STAT signaling cascade. ssGSEA analysis exhibited a significant correlation between immune status and the risk signature. Noscapine and clofazimine were screened as potential drugs for CRC patients with high-risk scores. TDRD5 and GPC1 were identified as hub genes and their expression were validated in 15 pairs of surgically resected CRC tissues.

CONCLUSION

Our research provides a depth insight of RBPs' role in CRC and the proposed signature are helpful to the personalized treatment and prognostic judgement.

Clinical prediction model for prognosis in kidney transplant recipients (KIDMO): study protocol

BACKGROUND

Many potential prognostic factors for predicting kidney transplantation outcomes have been identified. However, in Switzerland, no widely accepted prognostic model or risk score for transplantation outcomes is being routinely used in clinical practice yet. We aim to develop three prediction models for the prognosis of graft survival, quality of life, and graft function following transplantation in Switzerland.

METHODS

The clinical kidney prediction models (KIDMO) are developed with data from a national multi-center cohort study (Swiss Transplant Cohort Study; STCS) and the Swiss Organ Allocation System (SOAS). The primary outcome is the kidney graft survival (with death of recipient as competing risk); the secondary outcomes are the quality of life (patient-reported health status) at 12 months and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) slope. Organ donor, transplantation, and recipient-related clinical information will be used as predictors at the time of organ allocation. We will use a Fine & Gray subdistribution model and linear mixed-effects models for the primary and the two secondary outcomes, respectively. Model optimism, calibration, discrimination, and heterogeneity between transplant centres will be assessed using bootstrapping, internal-external cross-validation, and methods from meta-analysis.

DISCUSSION

Thorough evaluation of the existing risk scores for the kidney graft survival or patient-reported outcomes has been lacking in the Swiss transplant setting. In order to be useful in clinical practice, a prognostic score needs to be valid, reliable, clinically relevant, and preferably integrated into the decision-making process to improve long-term patient outcomes and support informed decisions for clinicians and their patients. The state-of-the-art methodology by taking into account competing risks and variable selection using expert knowledge is applied to data from a nationwide prospective multi-center cohort study. Ideally, healthcare providers together with patients can predetermine the risk they are willing to accept from a deceased-donor kidney, with graft survival, quality of life, and graft function estimates available for their consideration.

STUDY REGISTRATION

Open Science Framework ID: z6mvj.

A clinical indicator-based prognostic model predicting treatment outcomes of pulmonary tuberculosis: a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

Identifying prognostic factors helps optimize the treatment regimen and promote favorable outcomes. We conducted a prospective cohort study on patients with pulmonary tuberculosis to construct a clinical indicator-based model and estimate its performance.

METHODS

We performed a two-stage study by recruiting 346 pulmonary tuberculosis patients diagnosed between 2016 and 2018 in Dafeng city as the training cohort and 132 patients diagnosed between 2018 and 2019 in Nanjing city as the external validation population. We generated a risk score based on blood and biochemistry examination indicators by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox regression. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression models were used to assess the risk score, and the strength of association was expressed as the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). We plotted the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calculated the area under the curve (AUC). Internal validation was conducted by 10-fold cross-validation.

RESULTS

Ten significant indicators (PLT, PCV, LYMPH, MONO%, NEUT, NEUT%, TBTL, ALT, UA, and Cys-C) were selected to generate the risk score. Clinical indicator-based score (HR: 10.018, 95% CI: 4.904-20.468, P < 0.001), symptom-based score (HR: 1.356, 95% CI: 1.079-1.704, P = 0.009), pulmonary cavity (HR: 0.242, 95% CI: 0.087-0.674, P = 0.007), treatment history (HR: 2.810, 95% CI: 1.137-6.948, P = 0.025), and tobacco smoking (HR: 2.499, 95% CI: 1.097-5.691, P = 0.029) were significantly related to the treatment outcomes. The AUC was 0.766 (95% CI: 0.649-0.863) in the training cohort and 0.796 (95% CI: 0.630-0.928) in the validation dataset.

CONCLUSION

In addition to the traditional predictive factors, the clinical indicator-based risk score determined in this study has a good prediction effect on the prognosis of tuberculosis.

CHARMS and PROBAST at your fingertips: a template for data extraction and risk of bias assessment in systematic reviews of predictive models

BACKGROUND

Systematic reviews of studies of clinical prediction models are becoming increasingly abundant in the literature. Data extraction and risk of bias assessment are critical steps in any systematic review. CHARMS and PROBAST are the standard tools used for these steps in these reviews of clinical prediction models.

RESULTS

We developed an Excel template for data extraction and risk of bias assessment of clinical prediction models including both recommended tools. The template makes it easier for reviewers to extract data, to assess the risk of bias and applicability, and to produce results tables and figures ready for publication.

CONCLUSION

We hope this template will simplify and standardize the process of conducting a systematic review of prediction models, and promote a better and more comprehensive reporting of these systematic reviews.

Ferroptosis-related lncRNA model based on CFAP58-DT for predicting prognosis and immunocytes infiltration in endometrial cancer

Background

Endometrial cancer (EC) is a kind of common gynecological tumor. Further study on the markers related to the prognosis of endometrial cancer is important for women worldwide.

Methods

The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database was used to obtain the transcriptome profiling and clinical data. A model was built using packages based on R software. Immune-related databases were employed to analyze the infiltration of immunocytes. Quantitative real-time PCR (qRT-PCR), cell counting kit-8 (CCK-8), and transwell assays were utilized to investigate the role of CFAP58-DT in EC.

Results

Following Cox regression analysis, 1,731 ferroptosis-related long non-coding RNA (lncRNA) were screened, and a 9-related lncRNA prognostic model was constructed. Patients were classified as high- and low-risk according to their expression spectrum. Kaplan-Meier (KM) analysis showed that the prognosis of low-risk patients was poor. Operating characteristic curves, decision curve analysis, and a nomogram suggested the model could independently guide prognostic evaluation, with higher sensitivity, specificity, and efficiency than other common clinical characteristics. Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA) was conducted to determine the enriched pathways among the two groups and evaluation of the immune-infiltrating conditions were performed to help improve immune therapy. Finally, we conducted cytological studies on the model's most important indicators.

Conclusions

Overall, we identified a prognostic ferroptosis-related lncRNA model based on CFAP58-DT for predicting the prognosis and immune-infiltrating conditions in EC. We concluded that the potential oncogenic role of CFAP58-DT can further guide immunotherapy and chemotherapy.

m6A-related lncRNA-based immune infiltration characteristic analysis and prognostic model for colonic adenocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

Colonic adenocarcinoma (COAD) is a common gastrointestinal tract tumor, and its occurrence and progression are typically associated with genomic instability, tumor-suppressor gene and oncogene mutations, and tumor mutational load. N6-methyladenosine (m⁶A) modification of RNAs and long non-coding RNA (lncRNA) expression are important in tumorigenesis and progression. However, the regulatory roles of m⁶A-associated lncRNAs in the tumor microenvironment, stratification of prognosis, and immunotherapy are unclear.

METHODS

We screened 43 prognostic lncRNAs linked to m⁶A and performed consistent molecular typing of COAD using consensus clustering. The single-sample Gene Set Enrichment Analysis and ESTIMATE algorithms were used to assess the immune characteristics of different subgroups. Covariation between methylation-related prognostic lncRNAs was eliminated by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator Cox regression. A nomogram was created and evaluated by combining the methylation-related prognostic lncRNA model with other clinical factors. The relationship between the prognostic model grouping and microsatellite instability, immunophenotype score, and tumor mutation burden was validated using R scripts. Finally, we used a linkage map to filter sensitive medicines to suppress the expression of high-risk genes. Three m⁶A-associated lncRNA modes were identified in 446 COAD specimens with different clinical endpoints and biological statuses. Risk scores were constructed based on the m⁶A-associated lncRNA signature genes. Patients with lower risk scores showed superior immunotherapy responses and clinical benefits compared to those with higher risk scores. Lower risk scores were also correlated with higher immunophenotype scores, tumor mutation burden, and mutation rates in significantly mutated genes (e.g., FAT4 and MUC16). Piperidolate, quinostatin, and mecamylamin were screened for their abilities to suppress the expression of high-risk genes in the model.

CONCLUSIONS

Quantitative assessment of m⁶A-associated lncRNAs in single tumors can enhance the understanding of tumor microenvironment profiles. The prognostic model constructed using m⁶A-associated lncRNAs may facilitate prognosis and immunotherapy stratification of patients with COAD; finally, three drugs with potential therapeutic value were screened based on the model.

Developing a mortality risk prediction model using data of 3663 hospitalized COVID-19 patients: a retrospective cohort study in an Egyptian University Hospital

PURPOSE

Since the declaration of COVID-19 as a pandemic, a wide between-country variation was observed regarding in-hospital mortality and its predictors. Given the scarcity of local research and the need to prioritize the provision of care, this study was conducted aiming to measure the incidence of in-hospital COVID-19 mortality and to develop a simple and clinically applicable model for its prediction.

METHODS

COVID-19-confirmed patients admitted to the designated isolation areas of Ain-Shams University Hospitals (April 2020-February 2021) were included in this retrospective cohort study (n = 3663). Data were retrieved from patients' records. Kaplan-Meier survival and Cox proportional hazard regression were used. Binary logistic regression was used for creating mortality prediction models.

RESULTS

Patients were 53.6% males, 4.6% current smokers, and their median age was 58 (IQR 41-68) years. Admission to intensive care units was 41.1% and mortality was 26.5% (972/3663, 95% CI 25.1-28.0%). Independent mortality predictors-with rapid mortality onset-were age ≥ 75 years, patients' admission in critical condition, and being symptomatic. Current smoking and presence of comorbidities particularly, obesity, malignancy, and chronic haematological disorders predicted mortality too. Some biomarkers were also recognized. Two prediction models exhibited the best performance: a basic model including age, presence/absence of comorbidities, and the severity level of the condition on admission (Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC) = 0.832, 95% CI 0.816-0.847) and another model with added International Normalized Ratio (INR) value (AUC = 0.842, 95% CI 0.812-0.873).

CONCLUSION

Patients with the identified mortality risk factors are to be prioritized for preventive and rapid treatment measures. With the provided prediction models, clinicians can calculate mortality probability for their patients. Presenting multiple and very generic models can enable clinicians to choose the one containing the parameters available in their specific clinical setting, and also to test the applicability of such models in a non-COVID-19 respiratory infection.