Personality Predicts Mortality Risk: An Integrative Data Analysis of 15 International Longitudinal Studies

This study examined the Big Five personality traits as predictors of mortality risk, and smoking as a mediator of that association. Replication was built into the fabric of our design: we used a Coordinated Analysis with 15 international datasets, representing 44,094 participants. We found that high neuroticism and low conscientiousness, extraversion, and agreeableness were consistent predictors of mortality across studies. Smoking had a small mediating effect for neuroticism. Country and baseline age explained variation in effects: studies with older baseline age showed a pattern of protective effects (HR<1.00) for openness, and U.S. studies showed a pattern of protective effects for extraversion. This study demonstrated coordinated analysis as a powerful approach to enhance replicability and reproducibility, especially for aging-related longitudinal research.

An International Evaluation of Cognitive Reserve and Memory Changes in Early Old Age in 10 European Countries

BACKGROUND

Cognitive reserve was postulated to explain individual differences in susceptibility to ageing, offering apparent protection to those with higher education. We investigated the association between education and change in memory in early old age.

METHODS

Immediate and delayed memory scores from over 10,000 individuals aged 65 years and older, from 10 countries of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe, were modeled as a function of time in the study over an 8-year period, fitting independent latent growth models. Education was used as a marker of cognitive reserve and evaluated in association with memory performance and rate of change, while accounting for income, general health, smoking, body mass index, gender, and baseline age.

RESULTS

In most countries, more educated individuals performed better on both memory tests at baseline, compared to those less educated. However, education was not protective against faster decline, except for in Spain for both immediate and delayed recall (0.007 [SE = 0.003] and 0.006 [SE = 0.002]), and Switzerland for immediate recall (0.006 [SE = 0.003]). Interestingly, highly educated Italian respondents had slightly faster declines in immediate recall (-0.006 [SE = 0.003]).

CONCLUSIONS

We found weak evidence of a protective effect of education on memory change in most European samples, although there was a positive association with memory performance at individuals' baseline assessment.

Correlated and Coupled Trajectories of Cancer-Related Worries and Depressive Symptoms among Long-Term Cancer Survivors

The quality of life over time of long-term survivors has become an important part of both cancer and aging research. This paper examines individual differences in trajectories of cancer-related worries and depressive symptoms of 179 participants who completed four waves of annual interviews. Cancer-related worries were significantly associated with both initial level and trajectories of depressive symptoms. In a parallel process growth curve model, the initial level of depressive symptoms was significantly correlated with both the initial level and rate of change in cancer-related worry over time. Our findings indicate that cancer survivors are never completely removed from cancer's threats to quality of life, even as they survive into later life. These findings also suggest that older adults face the dual vulnerability of aging with its growing number of comorbidities and related symptoms along with the vulnerability conferred by cancer-related sequelae and the possibility of recurrence or new cancers.

Are Changes in Self-Rated Health Associated With Memory Decline in Older Adults?

Objective: The association between patterns of change in self-rated health (SRH) and memory trajectories in older adults was examined using a systematic approach. Method: Data from the Health and Retirement Study ( n = 6,016) and the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing ( n = 734) were analyzed. Individuals were grouped into five categories according to their pattern of change in SRH over 8 years: stable excellent/very good/good, stable fair/poor, improvement, decline, and fluctuating pattern without a trend. Memory was measured using immediate and delayed recall tests. Kruskal–Wallis, chi-squares tests, and linear mixed models were used to examine the association. Results: Different rates of decline in memory can be identified in the different patterns of change in SRH. Those who had a stable excellent/very good/good pattern had the slowest rate of decline. Discussion: Our findings suggest that SRH status and patterns of change could be used as a marker of cognitive decline in prevention screening programs.

The role of cognitive reserve on terminal decline: a cross-cohort analysis from two European studies: OCTO-Twin, Sweden, and Newcastle 85+, UK

OBJECTIVE

Cognitive performance shows a marked deterioration in close proximity to death, as postulated by the terminal decline hypothesis. The effect of education on the rate of terminal decline in the oldest people (i.e. persons 85+ years) has been controversial and not entirely understood. In the current study, we investigated the rate of decline prior to death with a special focus on the role of education and socioeconomic position, in two European longitudinal studies of ageing: the Origins of Variance in the Old-Old: Octogenarian Twins (OCTO-Twin) and the Newcastle 85+ study.

METHODS

A process-based approach was used in which individuals' cognitive scores were aligned according to distance to death. In a coordinated analysis, multilevel models were employed to examine associations between different markers of cognitive reserve (education and socioeconomic position) and terminal decline using the mini-mental state examination (MMSE), controlling for age at baseline, sex, dementia incidence and time to death from the study entry to the time of death within each cohort.

RESULTS

The current findings suggest that education was positively associated with higher MMSE scores prior to death in the OCTO-Twin, but not in the Newcastle 85+ study, independent of socioeconomic position and other factors such as baseline age, sex and time to death from the study entry. However, education was not associated with the rate of terminal decline in both of these studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results offer only partial support to the cognitive reserve hypothesis and cognitive performance prior to death.

Independent and interactive impacts of hypertension and diabetes mellitus on verbal memory: A coordinated analysis of longitudinal data from England, Sweden, and the United States

The importance of preventing and controlling hypertension (HTN) and diabetes mellitus (DM) to mitigate risks to physical health has long been understood by health care professionals. More recently, a growing body of evidence implicates HTN and DM in age-related cognitive decline and risk for dementia, though consensus has yet to be reached on whether older adults living with comorbid HTN and DM are at heightened risk for cognitive impairment. The present study sought to contribute to this topic through a coordinated analysis of 3 longitudinal studies of aging from England, Sweden, and the United States (total N = 12,513). Identical multilevel linear growth models were fit to each to estimate the impact of baseline disease status on initial level and change in verbal declarative memory performance. Overall, few associations between HTN, DM, and cognition were observed. Rate of decline was steeper for Swedish participants with independent HTN but attenuated for their American counterparts. Americans with comorbid HTN and DM showed attenuated decline. Treatment with medication was substantially less prevalent in the earlier-born and lower-educated Swedish sample, which may help to explain our pattern of results. In addition, those living with multiple conditions may be more likely to receive treatment, mitigating cognitive decline. Our results present a nuanced view of the interactions between HTN, DM, and cognition, and lead us to recommend consideration of treatment status or proxies such as birth cohort and education, in combination with age at assessment and specific measure used to interpret research in this area. (PsycINFO Database Record

Detecting short-term change and variation in health-related quality of life: within- and between-person factor structure of the SF-36 health survey

Background

A major goal of much aging-related research and geriatric medicine is to identify early changes in health and functioning before serious limitations develop. To this end, regular collection of patient-reported outcome measure (PROMs) in a clinical setting may be useful to identify and monitor these changes. However, existing PROMs were not designed for repeated administration and are more commonly used as one-time screening tools; as such, their ability to detect variation and measurement properties when administered repeatedly remain unknown. In this study we evaluated the potential of the RAND SF-36 Health Survey as a repeated-use PROM by examining its measurement properties when modified for administration over multiple occasions.

Methods

To distinguish between-person (i.e., average) from within-person (i.e., occasion) levels, the SF-36 Health Survey was completed by a sample of older adults (N = 122, M_age = 66.28 years) daily for seven consecutive days. Multilevel confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was employed to investigate the factor structure at both levels for two- and eight-factor solutions.

Results

Multilevel CFA models revealed that the correlated eight-factor solution provided better model fit than the two-factor solution at both the between-person and within-person levels. Overall model fit for the SF-36 Health Survey administered daily was not substantially different from standard survey administration, though both were below optimal levels as reported in the literature. However, individual subscales did demonstrate good reliability.

Conclusions

Many of the subscales of the modified SF-36 for repeated daily assessment were found to be sufficiently reliable for use in repeated measurement designs incorporating PROMs, though the overall scale may not be optimal. We encourage future work to investigate the utility of the subscales in specific contexts, as well as the measurement properties of other existing PROMs when administered in a repeated measures design. The development and integration of new measures for this purpose may ultimately be necessary.

Developmental Change and Time-Specific Variation in Global and Specific Aspects of Self-Concept in Adolescence and Association with Depressive Symptoms

Previous research has demonstrated that adolescents make differential self-evaluations in multiple domains that include physical appearance, academic competence, and peer acceptance. We report growth curve analyses over a seven year period from age 9 to age 16 on the six domains of the Harter Self-Perception Profile for Children. In general, we find little change in self-concept, on average, but do find substantial individual differences in level, rate of change, and time-specific variation in these self- evaluations. The results suggest that sex differences and adoptive status were related to only certain aspects of the participants' self-concept. Depressive symptoms were found to have significant effects on individual differences in rate of change and on time-specific variation in general self-concept, as well as on some of the specific domains of self-concept.

Longitudinal mediation of processing speed on age-related change in memory and fluid intelligence

Age-related decline in processing speed has long been considered a key driver of cognitive aging. While the majority of empirical evidence for the processing speed hypothesis has been obtained from analyses of between-person age differences, longitudinal studies provide a direct test of within-person change. Using recent developments in longitudinal mediation analysis, we examine the speed-mediation hypothesis at both the within-and between-person levels in two longitudinal studies, Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam (LASA) and Origins of Variance in the Oldest-Old (OCTO-Twin). We found significant within-person indirect effects of change in age, such that increasing age was related to lower speed, which in turn relates to lower performance across repeated measures on other cognitive outcomes. Although between-person indirect effects were also significant in LASA, they were not in OCTO-Twin which is not unexpected given the age homogeneous nature of the OCTO-Twin data. A more in-depth examination through measures of effect size suggests that, for the LASA study, the within-person indirect effects were small and between-person indirect effects were consistently larger. These differing magnitudes of direct and indirect effects across levels demonstrate the importance of separating between- and within-person effects in evaluating theoretical models of age-related change.

Investigating terminal decline: results from a UK population-based study of aging

The terminal decline hypothesis states that in the proximity of death, an individual's decline in cognitive abilities accelerates. We aimed at estimating the onset of faster rate of decline in global cognition using Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores from participants of the Cambridge City over 75 Cohort Study (CC75C), a U.K. population-based longitudinal study of aging where almost all participants have died. The random change point model fitted to MMSE scores structured as a function of distance to death allowed us to identify a potentially different onset of change in rate of decline before death for each individual in the sample. Differences in rate of change before and after the onset of change in rate of decline by sociodemographic variables were investigated. On average, the onset of a faster rate of change occurred about 7.7 years before death and varied across individuals. Our results show that most individuals experience a period of slight decline followed by a much sharper decline. Education, age at death, and cognitive impairment at study entry were identified as modifiers of rate of change before and after change in rate of decline. Gender differences were found in rate of decline in the final stages of life. Our study suggests that terminal decline is a heterogeneous process, with its onset varying between individuals.

Review of selected databases of longitudinal aging studies

One of the recommendations of the 2010 Leon Thal Symposium, organized to develop strategies to prevent Alzheimer's disease, was to build a global database of longitudinal aging studies. Although several databases of longitudinal aging studies exist, none of these are comprehensive or complete. In this article, we review selected databases of longitudinal aging studies. We also make recommendations on future steps to create a comprehensive database. Additionally, we discuss issues related to data harmonization.

Coordinated analysis of age, sex, and education effects on change in MMSE scores

OBJECTIVES

We describe and compare the expected performance trajectories of older adults on the Mini-Mental Status Examination (MMSE) across six independent studies from four countries in the context of a collaborative network of longitudinal studies of aging. A coordinated analysis approach is used to compare patterns of change conditional on sample composition differences related to age, sex, and education. Such coordination accelerates evaluation of particular hypotheses. In particular, we focus on the effect of educational attainment on cognitive decline.

METHOD

Regular and Tobit mixed models were fit to MMSE scores from each study separately. The effects of age, sex, and education were examined based on more than one centering point.

RESULTS

Findings were relatively consistent across studies. On average, MMSE scores were lower for older individuals and declined over time. Education predicted MMSE score, but, with two exceptions, was not associated with decline in MMSE over time.

CONCLUSION

A straightforward association between educational attainment and rate of cognitive decline was not supported. Thoughtful consideration is needed when synthesizing evidence across studies, as methodologies adopted and sample characteristics, such as educational attainment, invariably differ.

Multivariate Longitudinal Modeling of Cognitive Aging: Associations Among Change and Variation in Processing Speed and Visuospatial Ability

We illustrate the use of the parallel latent growth curve model using data from OCTO-Twin. We found a significant intercept-intercept and slope-slope association between processing speed and visuospatial ability. Within-person correlations among the occasion-specific residuals were significant, suggesting that the occasion-specific fluctuations around individual's trajectories, after controlling for intraindividual change, are related between both outcomes. Random and fixed effects for visuospatial ability are reduced when we include structural parameters (directional growth curve model) providing information about changes in visuospatial abilities after controlling for processing speed. We recommend this model to researchers interested in the analysis of multivariate longitudinal change, as it permits decomposition and directly interpretable estimates of association among initial levels, rates of change, and occasion-specific variation.

Joint Modeling of Longitudinal Change and Survival: An Investigation of the Association Between Change in Memory Scores and Death

Joint longitudinal-survival models are useful when repeated measures and event time data are available and possibly associated. The application of this joint model in aging research is relatively rare, albeit particularly useful, when there is the potential for nonrandom dropout. In this article we illustrate the method and discuss some issues that may arise when fitting joint models of this type. Using prose recall scores from the Swedish OCTO-Twin Longitudinal Study of Aging, we fitted a joint longitudinal-survival model to investigate the association between risk of mortality and individual differences in rates of change in memory. A model describing change in memory scores as following an accelerating decline trajectory and a Weibull survival model was identified as the best fitting. This model adjusted for random effects representing individual variation in initial memory performance and change in rate of decline as linking terms between the longitudinal and survival models. Memory performance and change in rate of memory decline were significant predictors of proximity to death. Joint longitudinal-survival models permit researchers to gain a better understanding of the association between change functions and risk of particular events, such as disease diagnosis or death. Careful consideration of computational issues may be required because of the complexities of joint modeling methodologies.

An evaluation of analytical approaches for understanding change in cognition in the context of aging and health

OBJECTIVES

In this article, we discuss the importance of studying the relationship between health and cognitive function, and some of the methods with which this relationship has been studied.

METHODS

We consider the challenges involved, in particular operationalization of the health construct and causal inference in the context of observational data. We contrast the approaches taken, and review the questions addressed: whether health and cognition are associated, whether changes in health are associated with changes in cognition, and the degree of interdependency among their respective trajectories.

RESULTS

A variety of approaches for understanding the association between cognition and health in aging individuals have been used. Much of the literature on cognitive change and health has relied on methods that are based at least in part on the reorganization of between-person differences (e.g., cross-lag analysis) rather than relying more fully on analysis of within-person change and joint analysis of individual differences in within-person change in cognition and health.

DISCUSSION

We make the case for focusing on the interdependency between within-person changes in health and cognition and suggest methods that would support this.

The longitudinal relationship between behavior and emotional disturbance in young people with intellectual disability and maternal mental health

Although elevated rates of parent psychosocial distress have been associated with child behavior and emotional problems, little is known about the nature of this relationship over time. This study followed an epidemiological cohort of children and adolescents over 11 years with 4 waves of data collection. Within this cohort, complete data were available on 238 mothers and their children. Behavior and emotional problems were assessed using the DBC, maternal mental health with the GHQ. Multivariate growth curve modelling was used to evaluate the commonality of individual change patterns. High levels of mental health problems were reported, which were stable over time. Higher scores on the DBC were associated with higher rates of mental health problems. Increases in child social relating problems were associated with increases mental health symptoms, particularly depression and anxiety.

Terminal decline from within- and between-person perspectives, accounting for incident dementia

OBJECTIVE

The terminal cognitive decline hypothesis has been debated for almost 50 years. This hypothesis implies a change in rate of decline within an individual. Therefore, we examine the hypothesis from a within-person perspective using a time to death chronological structure.

METHOD

Scores on a Swedish version of the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale Information and Block Design scores from 461 OCTO-Twin Study participants with confirmed death dates were modeled using quadratic growth curve models including both age and distance from death at study entry, sex, education, and dementia diagnosis as covariates of initial performance and of linear and quadratic change over time.

RESULTS

Information scores showed statistically significant evidence of slight within-person acceleration of declines in the no dementia group. Individuals with incident dementia declined more quickly, and those who were closer to death at study baseline had a stronger acceleration. Block Design scores declined but did not show evidence of such acceleration either within or across individuals. Decline was faster in incident cases closer to death at study entry.

DISCUSSION

Within-person evidence of terminal decline is not as strong as previously published between-person results. Strategies for focusing models on longitudinal aspects of available data and the extent to which lack of within-person evidence for terminal decline may stem from common data limitations are discussed.

Toward an integrative science of life-span development and aging

The study of aging demands an integrative life-span developmental framework, involving interdisciplinary collaborations and multiple methodological approaches for understanding how and why individuals change, in both normative and idiosyncratic ways. We highlight and summarize some of the issues encountered when conducting integrative research for understanding aging-related change, including, the integration of results across different levels of analysis; the integration of theory, design, and analysis; and the synthesis of results across studies of aging. We emphasize the necessity of longitudinal designs for understanding development and aging and discuss methodological issues that should be considered for achieving reproducible research on within-person processes. It will be important that current and future studies permit opportunities for quantitative comparison across populations given the extent to which historical shifts and cultural differences influence life-span processes and aging-related outcomes.

Classification models for early identification of persons at risk for dementia in primary care: an evaluation in a sample aged 80 years and older

AIM

To evaluate previously developed classification models to make implementation in primary care possible and aid early identification of persons at risk for dementia.

METHODS

Data were drawn from the OCTO-Twin study. At baseline, 521 persons >or= 80 years of age were nondemented, and for 387 a blood sample was available. Predictors of dementia were collected and analyzed in initially nondemented persons using generalized estimating equations and Cox survival analyses.

RESULTS

In the basic model using predictors already known or easily obtained (basic set), the mean 2-year predictive value increased from 6.9 to 28.8% in persons with memory complaints and an MMSE score <or= 25. In the extended model, using both the basic set and an extended set of predictors requiring further assessment, the 8-year predictive value increased from 15.0 to 45.8% in persons with low cholesterol and an MMSE score <or= 24.

CONCLUSION

Both models can contribute to an improved early identification of persons at risk for dementia in primary care.

Correlated and coupled within-person change in emotional and behavioral disturbance in individuals with intellectual disability

Individual change and variation in emotional/behavioral disturbance in children and adolescents with intellectual disability has received little empirical investigation. Based on 11 years of longitudinal data from the Australian Child to Adult Development Study, we report associations among individual differences in level, rate of change, and occasion-specific variation across subscales of the Developmental Behavior Checklist (DBC) with 506 participants who had intellectual disability and were ages 5 to 19 years at study entry. Correlations among the five DBC subscales ranged from .43 to .66 for level, .43 to .88 for rate of change, and .31 to .61 for occasion-specific variation, with the highest correlations observed consistently between disruptive, self-absorbed, and communication disturbance behaviors. These interdependencies among dimensions of emotional/behavioral disturbance provide insight into the developmental dynamics of psychopathology from childhood through young adulthood.

Integrative data analysis through coordination of measurement and analysis protocol across independent longitudinal studies

Replication of research findings across independent longitudinal studies is essential for a cumulative and innovative developmental science. Meta-analysis of longitudinal studies is often limited by the amount of published information on particular research questions, the complexity of longitudinal designs and the sophistication of analyses, and practical limits on full reporting of results. In many cases, cross-study differences in sample composition and measurements impede or lessen the utility of pooled data analysis. A collaborative, coordinated analysis approach can provide a broad foundation for cumulating scientific knowledge by facilitating efficient analysis of multiple studies in ways that maximize comparability of results and permit evaluation of study differences. The goal of such an approach is to maximize opportunities for replication and extension of findings across longitudinal studies through open access to analysis scripts and output for published results, permitting modification, evaluation, and extension of alternative statistical models and application to additional data sets. Drawing on the cognitive aging literature as an example, the authors articulate some of the challenges of meta-analytic and pooled-data approaches and introduce a coordinated analysis approach as an important avenue for maximizing the comparability, replication, and extension of results from longitudinal studies.