Modeling Oldowan tool transport from a primate perspective

Living nonhuman primates have long served as a referential framework for understanding various aspects of hominin biological and cultural evolution. Comparing the cognitive, social, and ecological contexts of nonhuman primate and hominin tool use has allowed researchers to identify key adaptations relevant to the evolution of hominin behavior. Although the Oldowan is often considered to be a major evolutionary milestone, it has been argued that the Oldowan is rather an extension of behaviors already present in the ape lineage. This is based on the fact that while apes move tools through repeated, unplanned, short-distance transport bouts, they produce material patterning often associated with long-distance transport, planning, and foresight in the Oldowan. Nevertheless, remain fundamental differences in how Oldowan core and flake technology and nonhuman primate tools are used. The goal of the Oldowan hominins is to produce sharp-edged flakes, whereas nonhuman primates use stone tools primarily as percussors. Here, we present an agent-based model that investigates the explanatory power of the ape tool transport model in light of these differences. The model simulates the formation of the Oldowan record under the conditions of an accumulated short-distance transport pattern, as seen in extant chimpanzees. Our results show that while ape tool transport can account for some of the variation observed in the archaeological record, factors related to use-life duration severely limit how far an Oldowan core can be moved through repeated short-distance transport bouts. Thus, the ape tool transport has limitations in its ability to explain patterns in the Oldowan. These results provide a basis for discussing adaptive processes that would have facilitated the development of the Oldowan.

Effects of extreme events on land-use-related decisions of farmers in Eastern Austria: the role of learning

European farm households will face increasingly challenging conditions in the coming decades due to climate change, as the frequency and severity of extreme weather events rise. This study assesses the complex interrelations between external framework conditions such as climate change or adjustments in the agricultural price and subsidy schemes with farmers' decision-making. As social aspects remain understudied drivers for agricultural decisions, we also consider value-based characteristics of farmers as internal factors relevant for decision-making. We integrate individual learning as response to extreme weather events into an agent-based model that simulates farmers' decision-making. We applied the model to a region in Eastern Austria that already experiences water scarcity and increasing drought risk from climate change and simulated three future scenarios to compare the effects of changes in socio-economic and climatic conditions. In a cross-comparison, we then investigated how farmers can navigate these changes through individual adaptation. The agricultural trajectories project a decline of active farms between -27 and -37% accompanied by a reduction of agricultural area between -20 and -30% until 2053. The results show that regardless of the scenario conditions, adaptation through learning moderates the decline in the number of active farms and farmland compared to scenarios without adaptive learning. However, adaptation increases the workload of farmers. This highlights the need for labor support for farms.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13593-023-00890-z.

Evaluating the effects of policies on building construction waste management: a hybrid dynamic approach

The construction industry, as a vital pillar of a country's economy, generates a significant amount of construction waste, which places a tremendous burden on the environment and society. Although previous studies have explored the impact of policies on construction waste management, there is a lack of a simulation model that can be easily used, taking into account the dynamic nature, generality, and practicability of the model. To fill this gap, a hybrid dynamics model of construction waste management system is developed using agent-based modeling, system dynamics, perceived value, and experienced weighted attraction. Based on relevant data from the construction waste industry in Shenzhen, China, the effect of five policies on contractor strategy selection and overall evolution is tested. The results indicate that industry rectification policy and combination policy can effectively promote the resource treatment of construction waste and reduce illegal dumping, pollution to the environment of waste and treatment process, and waste treatment cost. The findings of this research will help not only researchers better analyze the effect of construction waste policies but also policymakers and practitioners in proposing effective construction waste management policies.

A stochastic agent-based model to evaluate COVID-19 transmission influenced by human mobility

The COVID-19 pandemic has created an urgent need for mathematical models that can project epidemic trends and evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies. A major challenge in forecasting the transmission of COVID-19 is the accurate assessment of the multiscale human mobility and how it impacts infection through close contacts. By combining the stochastic agent-based modeling strategy and hierarchical structures of spatial containers corresponding to the notion of geographical places, this study proposes a novel model, Mob-Cov, to study the impact of human traveling behavior and individual health conditions on the disease outbreak and the probability of zero-COVID in the population. Specifically, individuals perform power law-type local movements within a container and global transport between different-level containers. It is revealed that frequent long-distance movements inside a small-level container (e.g., a road or a county) and a small population size reduce both the local crowdedness and disease transmission. It takes only half of the time to induce global disease outbreaks when the population increases from 150 to 500 (normalized unit). When the exponent c 1 of the long-tail distribution of distance k moved in the same-level container, p ( k ) ∼ k - c 1 · level , increases, the outbreak time decreases rapidly from 75 to 25 (normalized unit). In contrast, travel between large-level containers (e.g., cities and nations) facilitates global spread of the disease and outbreak. When the mean traveling distance across containers 1 d increases from 0.5 to 1 (normalized unit), the outbreak occurs almost twice as fast. Moreover, dynamic infection and recovery in the population are able to drive the bifurcation of the system to a "zero-COVID" state or to a "live with COVID" state, depending on the mobility patterns, population number and health conditions. Reducing population size and restricting global travel help achieve zero-COVID-19. Specifically, when c 1 is smaller than 0.2, the ratio of people with low levels of mobility is larger than 80% and the population size is smaller than 400, zero-COVID can be achieved within fewer than 1000 time steps. In summary, the Mob-Cov model considers more realistic human mobility at a wide range of spatial scales, and has been designed with equal emphasis on performance, low simulation cost, accuracy, ease of use and flexibility. It is a useful tool for researchers and politicians to apply when investigating pandemic dynamics and when planning actions against disease.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11071-023-08489-5.

Agent-based model of the impact of higher influenza vaccine efficacy on seasonal influenza burden

Introduction

Current influenza vaccines have limited effectiveness. COVID-19 vaccines using mRNA technology have demonstrated very high efficacy, suggesting that mRNA vaccines could be more effective for influenza. Several such influenza vaccines are in development. FRED, an agent-based modeling platform, was used to estimate the impact of more effective influenza vaccines on seasonal influenza burden.

Methods

Simulations were performed using an agent-based model of influenza that included varying levels of vaccination efficacy (40-95 % effective). In some simulations, level of infectiousness and/or length of infectious period in agents with breakthrough infections was also decreased. Impact of increased and decreased levels of vaccine uptake were also modeled. Outcomes included number of symptomatic influenza cases estimated for the US.

Results

Highly effective vaccines significantly reduced estimated influenza cases in the model. When vaccine efficacy was increased from 40 % to a maximum of 95 %, estimated influenza cases in the US decreased by 43 % to > 99 %. The base simulation (40 % efficacy) resulted in ∼ 28 million total yearly cases in the US, while the most effective vaccine modeled (95 % efficacy) decreased estimated cases to ∼ 22,000.

Discussion

Highly effective vaccines could dramatically reduce influenza burden. Model estimates suggest that even modest increases in vaccine efficacy could dramatically reduce seasonal influenza disease burden.

Agent-based simulation of COVID-19 containment measures: the case of lockdowns in cities

The effectiveness and political feasibility of COVID-19 containment measures such as lockdowns, are contentious. This stems in part from an absence of tools for their rigorous evaluation. Common epidemiological models such as the SEIR model generally lack the spatial resolution required for micro-level containment actions, the visualization capabilities for communicating measures such as localized lockdowns and the scenario-testing capabilities for assessing different alternatives. We present an individual-level ABM that generates geo-social networks animated by agent-agent and agent-building interactions. The model simulates real-world contexts and is demonstrated for the city of Jerusalem. Simulation outputs yield much useful information for evaluating the effectiveness of lockdowns. These include network-generated socio-spatial contagion chains for individual agents, dynamic building level contagion processes and neighborhood-level patterns of COVID-19 imports and exports useful in identifying super-spreader neighborhoods. The policy implications afforded by these various outputs are discussed.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12076-023-00336-w.

Optimizing the maintenance strategies for a network of green infrastructure: An agent-based model for stormwater detention basins

Various stormwater best management practices and green infrastructures (GIs) are recommended to address flooding, stormwater runoff, water quality, and sustainability. While detention basins are considered one of the main GI strategies, their benefits cannot be fully realized without properly maintaining them and making sure that they stay operational. Therefore, this paper used agent-based modeling (ABM) to devise an optimal maintenance program for detention basins to ensure that they function properly and continue to perform their water quality and flood control functions. More specifically, the following 2 agent types were incorporated in the model: 1) the detention basins were considered as static agents, and 2) the service teams responsible for the operation (maintenance, repair, and replacement) of the detention basins were considered as active agents. The developed ABM was applied for the entire network of stormwater detention basins in Newark, NJ. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify the most critical variables affecting the total cost of operating the network of detention basins as well as the functioning percentage of detention basins. In addition, optimization was implemented to determine the best maintenance program or policy that minimizes the total cost of operations, while also making sure that a desired functionality level or threshold is achieved for the entire network of detention basins. Finally, the ABM was statistically validated using a total of 10,000 Monte Carlo runs and 99% confidence intervals. The optimization results showed that, in order to minimize the total cost of maintaining the entire network of detention basins and ensure that at least 80% of the basins are in a functioning state at the end of the planning horizon, the decision-maker should implement the following maintenance program or strategy: have 2 service teams for the operations of the detention basins, follow a replacement policy, and replace detention basins after 3 maintenance periods. Also, the identified optimal maintenance program or strategy would result with an average total annual cost of around $4,085,000, where the average annual repair cost is around $2,572,200, the average annual maintenance cost is around $19,700, the average annual replacement cost is around $763,100, and the average annual service team cost is around $730,000. The proposed ABM for detention basins can be extended to other GIs as well as to different geographical areas. The usage of ABM has the advantage to reduce the subjectivity in developing plans for managing GIs.

Simulation of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic trends in Tokyo considering vaccinations, virus mutations, government policies and PCR tests

The eighth wave of COVID-19 infection in the Tokyo area has brought daily confirmed cases to a new higher level. This paper aims to explain the previous seven epidemic waves and forecast the eighth epidemic trend of the area using agent-based modeling and extended SEIR denotation. Four key considerations are investigated in this research, that are: 1. Vaccination, 2. Virus mutations, 3. Governmental policies and 4. PCR tests. Our study finds that the confirmed cases in the previous seven epidemic waves were only the tip of the iceberg. Using data prior to December 1 2022, the eighth wave is expected to hover high in December 2022 and January 2023. Our research pioneers in the simulation of antibody declination on an individual level. Comparing the simulated results, we find that the arrival of new epidemic waves are related to the decline in the number of antibody possessors, especially the sixth and the seventh epidemic waves. Our simulation also suggests that faced with low severe and death rates, PCR tests would not make much difference to reduce overall infections. In this case, maintaining PCR tests to a low level helps to reduce both social cost and public anxiety. However, if faced with the opposite case, PCR tests should be adjusted to a higher level to detect early infections. Such level of PCR tests should be compatible with available medical resources.

What's stopping the waste-treatment industry from adopting emerging circular technologies? An agent-based model revealing drivers and barriers

Many new circular economy technologies are gaining momentum, yet research on the complexity of adoption decisions driven by uncertainties, both at technology and ecosystem level, is lacking. In the present study, an agent-based model was developed to study factors that influence the adoption of emerging circular technologies. The case of the waste treatment industry was chosen, specifically its (non-) adoption of the so-called "Volatile Fatty Acid Platform", a circular economy technology that facilitates both the valorization of organic waste into high-end products as well as their sale on global markets. Model results show adoption rates under 60% due to effects of subsidies, market growth, technological uncertainty and social pressure. Furthermore, the conditions were revealed under which certain parameters have the most effect. An agent-based model enabled use of a systemic approach to reveal the mechanisms of circular emerging technology innovation that are most relevant for researchers and waste treatment stakeholders.

An integrated socio-economic agent-based modeling framework towards assessing farmers' decision making under water scarcity and varying utility functions

A spatio-temporal Agent Based Modeling (ABM) framework is developed to probabilistically predict farmers' decisions concerning their future farming practices when faced with potential water scarcity induced by future climate change. The proposed framework forecasts farmers' behavior assuming varying utility functions. The functionality of the proposed ABM is illustrated in an agriculturally dominated plain along the Eastern Mediterranean coastline. The model results indicated that modelling farmers as agents, who were solely interested in optimizing their agro-business budget, was only able to reproduce 35% of the answers provided by the farmers through a administered field questionnaire. Model simulations highlighted the importance of representing the farmers' combined socio-economic attributes when assessing their future decisions on land tenure. This approach accounts for social factors, such as the farmers' attitudes, subjective norms, social influence, memories of previous civil unrest and farming traditions, in addition to their economic utility to model farmer decision making. Under this scenario, correspondence between model simulations and farmers' answers reached 95%. Additionally, the model results show that when faced with the negative impacts of climate change, the majority of farmers seek adaptive measures, such as changing their crops and/or seeking new water sources, only when future water shortages were predicted to be low to moderate. Most opt to cease farming and allow their lands to urbanize or go fallow, when future water shortages were predicted to be high. Meanwhile, incorporating and modeling the social influence structures within the ABM diminished farmers' willingness to adapt and doubled their propensity to sell or quit their land. The proposed framework is able to account for a variety of utility functions and to successfully capture the actions and interactions between farmers and their environment; thus, it represents an innovative modeling approach for assessing farmers' behavior and decision-making in the face of future climate change. The nonspecific structure of the framework allows its application at any agriculturally dominated setting facing future water shortages promulgated by a changing climate.

Testing the Social Function of Metacognition for Common-Pool Resource Use

Metacognition, the ability to monitor and evaluate our own cognitive processes, confers advantages to individuals and their own judgment. A more recent hypothesis, however, states that explicit metacognition may also enhance the collective judgment of groups, and may enhance human collaboration and coordination. Here, we investigate this social function hypothesis of metacognition with arguably one of the oldest collaboration problems humans face, common-pool resource use. Using an agent-based model that simulates repeated group interactions and the forming of collective judgments about resource extraction, we show that (1) in "kind" environments (where confidence and judgment accuracy correlate positively), explicit metacognition may allow groups to reach more accurate judgments compared to groups exchanging object-level information only; while (2) in "wicked" environments (where confidence and judgment accuracy correlate negatively), explicit metacognition may protect groups from the large judgment errors yielded by groups using metacognitive information for individual-level learning only (implicit metacognition). With explicit metacognition, this research highlights a novel mechanism which, among others, provides a testable explanation of the often-observed finding that groups all over the world communicate to enhance common property use.

Impact of changes in protective behaviors and out-of-household activities by age on COVID-19 transmission and hospitalization in Chicago, Illinois

PURPOSE

Even with an efficacious vaccine, protective behaviors (social distancing, masking) are essential for preventing COVID-19 transmission and could become even more important if current or future variants evade immunity from vaccines or prior infection.

METHODS

We created an agent-based model representing the Chicago population and conducted experiments to determine the effects of varying adult out-of-household activities (OOHA), school reopening, and protective behaviors across age groups on COVID-19 transmission and hospitalizations.

RESULTS

From September-November 2020, decreasing adult protective behaviors and increasing adult OOHA both substantially impacted COVID-19 outcomes; school reopening had relatively little impact when adult protective behaviors and OOHA were maintained. As of November 1, 2020, a 50% reduction in young adult (age 18-40) protective behaviors resulted in increased latent infection prevalence per 100,000 from 15.93 (IQR 6.18, 36.23) to 40.06 (IQR 14.65, 85.21) and 19.87 (IQR 6.83, 46.83) to 47.74 (IQR 18.89, 118.77) with 15% and 45% school reopening. Increasing adult (age ≥18) OOHA from 65% to 80% of prepandemic levels resulted in increased latent infection prevalence per 100,000 from 35.18 (IQR 13.59, 75.00) to 69.84 (IQR 33.27, 145.89) and 38.17 (IQR 15.84, 91.16) to 80.02 (IQR 30.91, 186.63) with 15% and 45% school reopening. Similar patterns were observed for hospitalizations.

CONCLUSIONS

In areas without widespread vaccination coverage, interventions to maintain adherence to protective behaviors, particularly among younger adults and in out-of-household settings, remain a priority for preventing COVID-19 transmission.

How to design virus containment policies? A joint analysis of economic and epidemic dynamics under the COVID-19 pandemic

We analyze the impact of different designs of COVID-19-related lockdown policies on economic loss and mortality using a micro-level simulation model, which combines a multi-sectoral closed economy with an epidemic transmission model. In particular, the model captures explicitly the (stochastic) effect of interactions between heterogeneous agents during different economic activities on virus transmissions. The empirical validity of the model is established using data on economic and pandemic dynamics in Germany in the first 6 months after the COVID-19 outbreak. We show that a policy-inducing switch between a strict lockdown and a full opening-up of economic activity based on a high incidence threshold is strictly dominated by alternative policies, which are based on a low incidence threshold combined with a light lockdown with weak restrictions of economic activity or even a continuous weak lockdown. Furthermore, also the ex ante variance of the economic loss suffered during the pandemic is substantially lower under these policies. Keeping the other policy parameters fixed, a variation of the consumption restrictions during the lockdown induces a trade-off between GDP loss and mortality. Furthermore, we study the robustness of these findings with respect to alternative pandemic scenarios and examine the optimal timing of lifting containment measures in light of a vaccination rollout in the population.

Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of TAK-164 Antibody Drug Conjugate Coadministered with Unconjugated Antibody

The development of new antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) has led to the approval of 7 ADCs by the FDA in 4 years. Given the impact of intratumoral distribution on efficacy of these therapeutics, coadministration of unconjugated antibody with ADC has been shown to improve distribution and efficacy of several ADCs in high and moderately expressed tumor target systems by increasing tissue penetration. However, the benefit of coadministration in low expression systems is less clear. TAK-164, an ADC composed of an anti-GCC antibody (5F9) conjugated to a DGN549 payload, has demonstrated heterogeneous distribution and bystander killing. Here, we evaluated the impact of 5F9 coadministration on distribution and efficacy of TAK-164 in a primary human tumor xenograft mouse model. Coadministration was found to improve the distribution of TAK-164 within the tumor, but it had no significant impact (increase or decrease) on efficacy. Experimental and computational evidence indicates that this was not a result of tumor saturation, increased binding to perivascular cells, or compensatory bystander effects. Rather, the cellular potency of DGN549 was matched with the single-cell uptake of TAK-164 making its IC50 close to its equilibrium binding affinity (KD), and as such, coadministration dilutes total DGN549 in cells below the maximum cytotoxic concentration, thereby offsetting an increased number of targeted cells with decreased ability to kill each cell. These results provide new insights on matching payload potency to ADC delivery to help identify when increasing tumor penetration is beneficial for improving ADC efficacy and demonstrate how mechanistic simulations can be leveraged to design clinically effective ADCs.

It's worth a shot: urban density, endogenous vaccination decisions, and dynamics of infectious disease

We develop an agent-based model of vaccine decisions across a heterogeneous network model with urban and rural regions. In the model, agents make rational decisions to vaccinate or not, based on the relative private costs of vaccinations and infections as well as an estimated probability of infection if not vaccinated. The model is a methodological advance in that it provides an economic rationale for traditional threshold models of vaccine decision-making that are commonly used in agent-based network models of vaccine choice. In the model, more dense urban regions have more connections between agents than less dense rural regions. Higher density leads to higher levels of vaccine usage and lower rates of infection in urban regions within the model. This finding adds to the more commonly discussed socio-economic reasons for higher levels of vaccination usage in urban areas compared to rural areas. In addition to this direct contribution, the paper emphasizes the importance of endogenous decision-making in models of epidemiology. For instance, we find that networks that lead to larger epidemics in exogenous vaccination models lead to smaller epidemics in our model because agents use vaccinations to offset the additional risk introduced by these network structures. Endogenous agent responses to risk need to be incorporated into theoretical and empirical models of economic epidemiology.

The Emergence of Cultural Attractors: How Dynamic Populations of Learners Achieve Collective Cognitive Alignment

When a population exhibits collective cognitive alignment, such that group members tend to perceive, remember, and reproduce information in similar ways, the features of socially transmitted variants (i.e., artifacts, behaviors) may converge over time towards culture-specific equilibria points, often called cultural attractors. Because cognition may be plastic, shaped through experience with the cultural products of others, collective cognitive alignment and stable cultural attractors cannot always be taken for granted, but little is known about how these patterns first emerge and stabilize in initially uncoordinated populations. We propose that stable cultural attractors can emerge from general principles of human categorization and communication. We present a model of cultural attractor dynamics, which extends a model of unsupervised category learning in individuals to a multiagent setting wherein learners provide the training input to each other. Agents in our populations spontaneously align their cognitive category structures, producing emergent cultural attractor points. We highlight three interesting behaviors exhibited by our model: (1) noise enhances the stability of cultural category structures; (2) short 'critical' periods of learning early in life enhance stability; and (3) larger populations produce more stable but less complex attractor landscapes, and cliquish network structure can mitigate the latter effect. These results may shed light on how collective cognitive alignment is achieved in the absence of shared, innate cognitive attractors, which we suggest is important to the capacity for cumulative cultural evolution.

Network effects in a bounded confidence model

The bounded confidence model has become a popular tool for studying communities of epistemically interacting agents. The model makes the idealizing assumption that all agents always have access to all other agents' belief states. We draw on resources from network epistemology to do away with this assumption. In the model to be proposed, we impose an explicit communication network on a community, due to which each agent has access to the beliefs of only a selection of other agents. A much-discussed result from network epistemology shows that densely connected communication networks are not always preferable to sparser networks. The aim of this paper is to investigate whether there are any noteworthy network effects in a version of the bounded confidence model augmented with communication networks, and in particular whether the aforementioned result from network epistemology can be replicated in that version.

The casual effect of relational mobility on integration of social networks: An agent-based modeling approach

Despite converging evidence for the importance of relational mobility on shaping people's social experiences, previous work suggested mixed findings for its influence on the structure of sociocentric networks, which lays the basis for the development of all types of social relationships. Additionally, as it is timely and economically intractable to administer such longitudinal experiments in real-life settings, most previous work mainly relied on cross-sectional correlation analyses and provided limited causal evidence. The current research used an agent-based modeling approach to examine whether higher relational mobility (i.e., the number of opportunities to meet new people) would promote integration among social networks over time. Using parameters derived from survey data, we simulated how the integration of sociocentric social networks evolves under different levels of relational mobility. Based on the data of three network structural indicators, including modularity, global efficiency, and standard deviation of nodal betweenness, we obtained causal evidence supporting that higher relational mobility promotes greater network integration. These findings highlight the power of socioecological demands on our social experiences.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12144-022-03130-x.

Testing Different COVID-19 Vaccination Strategies Using an Agent-Based Modeling Approach

Vaccination has been the long-awaited solution ever since the COVID-19 pandemic started. But the problem is that vaccine shots cannot be delivered at the same time to all populations, because of their limited quantity from one side, and their high demand from the other side. Therefore, countries need a way to test the effect of different distribution strategies before applying them. But how can they do this? To assist countries with this task, we built an agent-based model that runs on top of the Monte Carlo algorithm. This model simulates the spread of COVID-19 in a country where we can apply different NPIs at different times, and we can supply different kinds of vaccines using different strategies. In this study, we tested the outcomes of four vaccination strategies: older first, younger first, a mixed strategy, and a random strategy. We simulated these strategies in two different countries: France and Colombia. Then, we performed a comparative analysis to find which strategy might be the best for each country. Our results show that what is good for a country is not necessarily the best for the other one. Therefore, we proved that a vaccination strategy should be adapted to the structure of the population we are vaccinating. The system we built helps countries in this direction by allowing them to test the outcomes of their strategies before applying them in real life to select the one that minimizes human losses (deaths and infections).

Two sides of the same leader: an agent-based model to analyze the effect of ambivalent opinion leaders in social networks

Opinion leaders (OLs) are becoming increasingly relevant on social networking sites as their visibility can help to shape their followers' attitudes toward a variety of issues. While earlier research provided initial evidence on the effect of OLs using agent-based modeling, it remains unclear how OLs affect their network environment and, therefore, the opinion climate when: (a) they publicly hold ambivalent attitudes, and (b) they not only express support for their own stance but also discredit or 'debunk' the opposing side. This paper presents an agent-based model that determines the influence of OLs in social networks in relation to ambivalence and discreditation. The model draws on theoretical foundations of OLs as well as attitudinal ambivalence and was implemented using two network topologies. Results indicate that OLs have significant influence on the opinion climate and that an unequal number of OLs of different opinion camps lead to an imbalance in the opinion climate only in certain situations. Furthermore, OLs can dominate the opinion climate and turn their stance into a majority opinion more effectively when discrediting the opposing side. Ambivalent OLs, on the other hand, can contribute to greater balance in the opinion climate. These findings provide a more nuanced analysis of OLs in social networks by pointing to potential amplifications as well as boundaries of their influence. Implications are discussed with a focus on human and artificial key actors in online networks and their efficacy therein.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s42001-022-00161-z.

A review of mathematical modeling of addiction regarding both (neuro-) psychological processes and the social contagion perspectives

Addiction is a complex biopsychosocial phenomenon, impacted by biological predispositions, psychological processes, and the social environment. Using mathematical and computational models that allow for surrogative reasoning may be a promising avenue for gaining a deeper understanding of this complex behavior. This paper reviews and classifies a selection of formal models of addiction focusing on the intra- and inter-individual dynamics, i.e., (neuro) psychological models and social models. We find that these modeling approaches to addiction are too disjoint and argue that in order to unravel the complexities of biopsychosocial processes of addiction, models should integrate intra- and inter-individual factors.

Agent-based modeling of COVID-19 outbreaks for New York state and UK: Parameter identification algorithm

This paper uses Covasim, an agent-based model (ABM) of COVID-19, to evaluate and scenarios of epidemic spread in New York State (USA) and the UK. Epidemiological parameters such as contagiousness (virus transmission rate), initial number of infected people, and probability of being tested depend on the region's demographic and geographical features, the containment measures introduced; they are calibrated to data about COVID-19 spread in the region of interest. At the first stage of our study, epidemiological data (numbers of people tested, diagnoses, critical cases, hospitalizations, and deaths) for each of the mentioned regions were analyzed. The data were characterized in terms of seasonality, stationarity, and dependency spaces, and were extrapolated using machine learning techniques to specify unknown epidemiological parameters of the model. At the second stage, the Optuna optimizer based on the tree Parzen estimation method for objective function minimization was applied to determine the model's unknown parameters. The model was validated with the historical data of 2020. The modeled results of COVID-19 spread in New York State and the UK have demonstrated that if the level of testing and containment measures is preserved, the number of positive cases in New York State remain the same during March of 2021, while in the UK it will reduce.

Different roles of interpersonal trust and institutional trust in COVID-19 pandemic control

The absence of pharmaceutical interventions made it particularly difficult to mitigate the first outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The current study investigated how interpersonal trust and institutional trust influenced the control process. Trusts and COVID-19 data in 44 countries and 50 US states were analyzed; institutional trust was associated with case fatality rate, and interpersonal trust was associated with control speed. Two independent behavioral experiments showed that institutional trust manipulation increased participants' willingness to complete the COVID-19 test and that interpersonal trust manipulation increased conscious compliance with prevention norms and decreased unnecessary outdoor activities. Agent-based modeling further confirmed these behavioral mechanisms for two types of trust in the COVID-19 control process. New interventions are needed to help countries heighten interpersonal and institutional trust as they continue to battle COVID-19 and other collective threats.

ArchABM: An agent-based simulator of human interaction with the built environment. CO2 and viral load analysis for indoor air quality

Recent evidence suggests that SARS-CoV-2, which is the virus causing a global pandemic in 2020, is predominantly transmitted via airborne aerosols in indoor environments. This calls for novel strategies when assessing and controlling a building's indoor air quality (IAQ). IAQ can generally be controlled by ventilation and/or policies to regulate human-building-interaction. However, in a building, occupants use rooms in different ways, and it may not be obvious which measure or combination of measures leads to a cost- and energy-effective solution ensuring good IAQ across the entire building. Therefore, in this article, we introduce a novel agent-based simulator, ArchABM, designed to assist in creating new or adapt existing buildings by estimating adequate room sizes, ventilation parameters and testing the effect of policies while taking into account IAQ as a result of complex human-building interaction patterns. A recently published aerosol model was adapted to calculate time-dependent carbon dioxide (CO2) and virus quanta concentrations in each room and inhaled CO2 and virus quanta for each occupant over a day as a measure of physiological response. ArchABM is flexible regarding the aerosol model and the building layout due to its modular architecture, which allows implementing further models, any number and size of rooms, agents, and actions reflecting human-building interaction patterns. We present a use case based on a real floor plan and working schedules adopted in our research center. This study demonstrates how advanced simulation tools can contribute to improving IAQ across a building, thereby ensuring a healthy indoor environment.