When and how to assess fast-changing technologies: a comparative study of medical applications of four generic technologies

OBJECTIVES. To try to identify the optimal time at which to start assessing new and fast-evolving health technologies. To provide insight into factors influencing the timing of assessments and the choice of methods for assessing new and fast-changing technologies. HOW THE RESEARCH WAS CONDUCTED. A series of literature reviews were undertaken covering the general principles involved in the timing of health technology assessments (HTAs). Additionally, the reported assessments of laparoscopic cholecystectomy, chorionic villus sampling (CVS), teleradiology, teledermatology, genetic screening for predisposition to breast cancer, and gene therapy for cystic fibrosis were reviewed to try to identify the factors that influenced the timing of these assessments. Key individuals in each field were also interviewed. The selected technologies allowed comparison between those that were new and evolving and those that were relatively well-established. A bibliometric study of publication trends was also undertaken to see whether these trends would suggest points in the development of a technology that could be used as indicators that assessment should be started. RESEARCH FINDINGS. TIMING. The precise point at which assessment should start was not identified but the bibliometric study suggested that extending this approach might give useful results. For all health technologies, more regular reporting of outcomes and side-effects should be encouraged during the period after initial assessment and, where the technology is fast-changing, reassessment should take place from time to time. The precise intervals were not identified and the problem remains of deciding when a technology has changed enough to warrant reassessment. FACTORS INFLUENCING TIMING. Published reports of assessments did not generally specify the reasons for their timing, but a number of factors appear to have influenced the timing of those assessments, directly or indirectly. Product champions and opinion leaders pioneer the introduction of new technologies into clinical practice, and their reports may lead to the rapid diffusion of such technologies before they have been adequately evaluated, as was the case with laparoscopic cholecystectomy; this diffusion may limit the methods of evaluation that can then be used. It is therefore important to assess new health technologies before diffusion takes place. The extent to which regulatory control is imposed on the introduction of new health technologies can also influence the timing of assessments. Such controls might have helped to restrict the diffusion of laparoscopic cholecystectomy, making a large and widely generalisable randomised controlled trial (RCT) feasible. The source and availability of funding for studies may influence the nature and timing of trials. Many telemedicine evaluations were funded by commercial telecommunications organisations and were thus restricted in their timing (and biased towards the technological aspects of the applications) by the availability of funds. Media coverage undoubtedly has an influence although this influence is not always predictable; it may generate 'favourable' publicity about new health technologies, which can lead to immediate demands for the new technique, as was the case with laparosocpic cholecystectomy with its apparent benefits. Thus assessments should be made before media coverage exerts popular pressure on purchasers to adopt the technology and dissuades patients from participating in RCTs (because of fear they may be randomised to the standard treatment as occurred in a US trial of CVS). Innovators should also be cautious in the claims that they make to the media.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED)

Accuracy of cytogenetic findings on chorionic villus sampling (CVS)--diagnostic consequences of CVS mosaicism and non-mosaic discrepancy in centres contributing to EUCROMIC 1986-1992

Of 62,865 karyotyped chorionic villus (CV) samples that were reported to EUCROMIC 1986-1992, 98.5 per cent showed either a normal karyotype (true negative result; 94.8 per cent of the total) or a non-mosaic chromosomal aberration (true positive non-mosaic result; 3.7 per cent). True fetal mosaicism was diagnosed in about 0.15 per cent of the 62,865 CV samples, while confined placental mosaicism (CPM) occurred in 1.0 per cent. False-positive non-mosaic aberrations were observed in 0.15 per cent and false-negative CVS (chorionic villus sampling) results in only 0.03 per cent. The remaining 0.15 per cent of the CVS results were unclassifiable. These figures determined a sensitivity of CVS for prenatal detection of chromosome aberrations of 98.9-99.6 per cent (95 per cent confidence intervals), a specificity of 98.5-98.8 per cent, a positive predictive value of 72.6-78.3 per cent, and a negative predictive value of 99.95-99.98 per cent. False-positive non-mosaic aberrations that could not from the outset be suspected of being confined to the placenta were very rare (0.07 per cent of CV samples). They most often involved non-mosaic monosomy X and trisomy 18 encountered after direct preparation alone. False-negative CVS results were extremely rare (0.03 per cent) and occurred, with only one exception, after direct preparation alone. Thirteen of the 19 false-negative CVS diagnoses were from pregnancies at a particularly high risk for fetal chromosomal aberration. Seventy-five per cent of the pregnancies with CVS mosaicism or non-mosaic discrepancy and known outcome continued to livebirth. When CVS mosaicism was encountered, the definitive prenatal cytogenetic diagnosis was most often obtained through subsequent amniocentesis. However, the use of amniocentesis and the frequency of pregnancy termination depended on the type of chromosomal aberration involved. We conclude that CVS is an accurate method for prenatal chromosome analysis. In pregnancies at high risk for fetal chromosomal abnormality, we recommend, however, not relying solely on a normal karyotype obtained after direct preparation alone.

Incidence and outcome of chromosomal mosaicism found at the time of chorionic villus sampling

OBJECTIVE

Chromosomal mosaicism has been reported in about 1% to 3% of chorionic villus sampling specimens. This report provides incidence and outcome information that should be useful in counseling patients found to have mosaicism on chorionic villus sampling.

STUDY DESIGN

A retrospective analysis of 11,200 consecutive patients undergoing chorionic villus sampling at the University of California, San Francisco, during the period from Jan. 1, 1984, to June 1, 1996, was undertaken.

RESULTS

A total of 140 cases of mosaicism were identified for an incidence of 1.3%. Follow-up information was available for 130 cases, 26 of which (20%) were confirmed in fetal tissue. Confirmation rates for specific types of mosaicism were as follows: autosomal trisomy 7.6%, sex chromosome 25%, structural abnormality 27.3%, and marker chromosome 77.8%. Neonatal outcome was normal in all cases for which pregnancy continued.

CONCLUSION

The data indicate that in most cases of chromosomal mosaicism found by chorionic villus sampling the mosaicism is unlikely to be clinically significant in the fetus.

Chorionic villus sampling and amniocentesis: recommendations for prenatal counseling. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Chorionic villus sampling (CVS) and amniocentesis are prenatal diagnostic procedures that are performed to detect fetal abnormalities. In 1991, concerns about the relative safety of these procedures arose after reports were published that described a possible association between CVS and birth defects in infants. Subsequent studies support the hypothesis that CVS can cause transverse limb deficiencies. Following CVS, rates of these defects, estimated to be 0.03%-0.10% (1/3,000-1/1,000), generally have been increased over background rates. Rates and severity of limb deficiencies are associated with the timing of CVS; most of the birth defects reported after procedures that were performed at > or = 70 days' gestation were limited to the fingers or toes. The risk for either digital or limb deficiency after CVS is only one of several important factors that must be considered in making complex and personal decisions about prenatal testing. For example, CVS is generally done earlier in pregnancy than amniocentesis and is particularly advantageous for detecting certain genetic conditions. Another important factor is the risk for miscarriage, which has been attributed to 0.5%-1.0% of CVS procedures and 0.25%-0.50% of amniocentesis procedures. Prospective parents considering the use of either CVS or amniocentesis should be counseled about the benefits and risks of these procedures. The counselor should also discuss both the mother's and father's risk(s) for transmitting genetic abnormalities to the fetus.

First trimester prenatal diagnosis: earlier is not necessarily better

In the past few years considerable attention has been given to a relatively new method of prenatal diagnosis known as chorionic villus sampling (CVS). Because CVS can be performed in the first trimester it is hailed by many as a significant advance over amniocentesis. What has not been as publicized, however, are the disadvantages of CVS and earlier prenatal diagnosis. The emotional costs of CVS in terms of the greater number of both spontaneous and selective abortions following CVS, the use of CVS for sex selection and, because of the greater social acceptability of first trimester abortion, the possibility of increased pressure on women to undergo prenatal diagnosis by health insurance companies, medical professionals and government agencies, all need to be weighed against the advantages of early prenatal diagnosis.

The predictive value of cytogenetic diagnosis after CVS based on 4860 cases with both direct and culture methods

Cytogenetic analysis was performed in 4860 chorionic villus samples by means of both direct preparation and long-term culture. The results of the analysis were compared with a classification including all theoretical types of combinations between the chromosomal constitution of the cytotrophoblast, extraembryonal mesoderm, and fetus, with the aim of evaluating the cytogenetic variability along the trophoblast-embryo axis. Eighteen of 29 possible combinations were found demonstrating a considerable heterogeneity. A mosaic conceptus was found in 1.5 per cent of cases, with generalized mosaicisms and confined mosaicisms in 0.2 and 1.3 per cent, respectively. Cytogenetic variability along the trophoblast-embryo axis was found in 1.42 per cent of cases. Results possibly leading to diagnostic errors (false-positive and false-negative results) were found in only 1.38 per cent. False-positive results of direct preparation were the most commonly observed discrepancy (0.8 per cent), while the incidence of false-positive results of the culture method and of both methods was 0.31 and 0.16 per cent respectively. The incidence of false-negative results was 0.1 per cent, with false-negative results of direct preparation 0.08 per cent and false-negative results of both methods 0.02 per cent. False-negative results of the culture method were not found. Our data confirm the high diagnostic accuracy of chorionic villus sampling and the utility of the combined use of the two methods in minimizing diagnostic errors and in reducing the need for follow-up amniocentesis.

A quantitative estimation of the effect of prenatal diagnosis in dizygotic twin pregnancies in women of advanced maternal age

Genetic counselling in a dizygotic twin pregnancy is complicated by the large number of possible pregnancy outcomes and by the conceivable differences in the parental valuation of these outcomes. We present the probability distributions of the pregnancy outcomes in dizygotic twin pregnancies for women from 35 to 45 years old without prenatal diagnosis and with transabdominal chorionic villus sampling (TA-CVS) or amniocentesis (AC), using data from the literature. TA-CVS always gives a higher probability of a favourable pregnancy outcome (the birth of one or two infants with a normal karyotype) than AC. For a 35-year-old woman, a 0.7 per cent risk of an unfavourable pregnancy outcome without prenatal diagnosis has to be weighed against the 2.1 per cent excess risk of loss of the entire pregnancy after TA-CVS. For a 45-year-old woman, a 10.2 per cent risk of an unfavourable pregnancy outcome without TA-CVS has to be balanced against a 4.4 per cent excess risk of pregnancy loss after TA-CVS. This study provides a quantitative tool for the support of individual parents with respect to the decision to undergo prenatal diagnosis in a dizygotic twin pregnancy.

Amniocentesis and chorionic villus sampling

Amniocentesis performed at 16 to 18 weeks' gestation has been the gold standard approach for prenatal cytogenetic diagnosis. Over the past few years, large collaborative studies on chorionic villus sampling have confirmed the safety and efficacy of chorionic villus sampling as a viable alternative for women seeking prenatal diagnosis. While the expanding experience with chorionic villus sampling has answered questions regarding the safety of the transabdominal approach, it has also raised questions concerning possible associations with limb abnormalities, its usefulness in multiple gestations, and the clinical significance of confined placental mosaicism. These issues, as well as the technical and gestational age limitations of chorionic villus sampling, have led many investigators to study the technical feasibility, safety, and accuracy of amniocentesis performed in the first trimester or early second trimester. While this approach appears both safe and efficacious, there are concerns regarding orthopedic abnormalities and the reliability of first-trimester amniotic fluid acetylcholinesterase and alpha-fetoprotein levels in the diagnosis of neural tube defects.

[Prenatal diagnosis of trisomy 21: limits of chorionic villi sampling]

An analysis of the limits, risks and difficulties of interpreting trophocentesis leads to the conclusion that the method is effective and free from maternal risk. The unsuccessful cases and the "fetal losses" are however more numerous than for amniocentesis.

Chorionic villus sampling in Auckland 1989-90

AIMS

to perform an audit of all 197 chorionic villus sampling procedures performed in Auckland in 1989-90.

METHOD

an attempt to trace the outcome in all 197 cases and this was possible in 188 cases.

RESULTS

89% of chorionic villus samples were performed transvaginally and 11% transabdominally. The total fetal loss rate was 9.6% (18) with six spontaneous miscarriages before 20 weeks gestation (3.2%), one intermediate fetal death and one neonatal death. There were 10 elective terminations of pregnancy following abnormal results so the spontaneous loss rate was 4.3%.

CONCLUSIONS

the loss rate was lower than that reported in the European and Canadian multicentre trials. The sampling success rate, however, was poor with 13.7% failed procedures. This improved in the second year of the service to 10%. There were no failure cultures or examples of mosaicism.

[Chorionic villi sampling and prenatal diagnosis]

The authors report their experience of 790 villous specimens taken either early (for 430 cases) or late (360 cases) between 10 and 37 weeks of amenorrhea (WA) using a transabdominal syringe. In the early choriocentesis cases, they conclude that use of the transabdominal route after 12.5 WA, regardless of the position of the chorion, makes it possible significantly to reduce the rate of fetal loss which becomes similar to that for amniocentesis. Placentocentesis has been used at later stages, either for high-risk couples as an alternative to amniocentesis (183 cases), or in cases of ultrasound abnormalities (177 cases) as an alternative to amniocentesis or cordocentesis. Placentocentesis makes it possible to obtain the fetal karyotype very rapidly within 1 to 2 days.

Fetal therapy

In the past year, the results of the European trial comparing chorionic villus sampling and amniocentesis have been published, supporting the findings of the Canadian Collaborative Study of an increased risk associated with chorionic villus sampling. The reporting of an increase in limb reduction abnormalities with chorionic villus sampling before 9 weeks has made us review our current practice. Other developments covered by this review include the management of mild cerebral ventriculomegaly, the treatment of tachyarrhythmias, and developments in fetal surgery. Throughout, the needs for continued collaboration, pooling of data, and the formation of international registers to extend the database from which both doctors and patients may benefit are highlighted.

[Cytogenic anomalies and placental function]

Over the past few years growing knowledge of placental cytogenetics has led to the surprising observation that the chromosomal constitution of the placenta is not always identical to that of its fetus. This information comes primarily from three sources: analyses of chorionic villi obtained by choriocentesis (chorionic villus sampling); studies of abortions, particularly spontaneous ones; and analyses of extrafetal tissues performed following dubious prenatal diagnoses, or to investigate fetal pathologies such as intrauterine growth retardation. Our personal data and those reviewed in this article allow the conclusion that chromosomal aberrations, particularly in the mosaic state, are frequent in the placenta, and that at least some of these have less severe consequences when present in extrafetal tissues than when present in the fetus itself. The types of chromosomal errors observed differ according to the method of ascertainment, in spontaneous abortions for example as compared to pregnancies developing as far as the third trimester. The presence of a partially aneuploid placenta may be compatible with a continuing pregnancy, but be associated with problems such as inadequate fetal growth.

[Experience with chorionic villi sampling]

The authors discuss their experiences from 412 chorion villus samplings, (CVS), which they have done under four and a half years since 1985. They used eight types of instruments in performing their examinations and each instrument proved to be satisfactory in the gaining of chorion villus samples, suitable for further tests. They also discuss the bacteria found most frequently in the vagina on the basis of the examination and culturing of both vaginal and cervical fluid done prior to 151 CVS examinations and the effective method with which ascending infection can be prevented. They discuss a distributional pattern of their results based on the different indications for the CVS examinations, and the outcome of each of the pregnancies after CVS. In 377 cases they did direct karyotyping, in 30 cases DNA examination and in five cases enzyme determination also occurred.

Medical Research Council European trial of chorion villus sampling. MRC working party on the evaluation pf chorion villus sampling

First-trimester chorion villus sampling has the advantage over second-trimester amniocentesis of allowing earlier prenatal diagnosis of various genetic and cytogenetic disorders in the fetus (and therefore earlier termination in affected pregnancies) but the relative safety and diagnostic accuracy remain unclear. Between 1985 and 1989, 3248 women seeking prenatal diagnosis, principally because of their age, were recruited to an international, multicentre, randomised comparison of the safety and diagnostic accuracy of the two techniques--5% of women allocated chorion villus sampling and 8% of those allocated amniocentesis were not tested, usually because of spontaneous miscarriage. 6% and 2% were retested, in most because of sampling failure. The endpoint of a liveborn infant who survived was achieved by 86% of women allocated chorion villus sampling and 91% of those allocated amniocentesis; statistical analysis, after appropriate weighting for a centre's contribution, showed that the typical difference between the groups was 4.6% (95% confidence interval 1.6-7.5%; p less than 0.01). This difference reflected more spontaneous fetal deaths before 28 weeks' gestation (2.9% [0.6-5.3%]); more terminations of pregnancy for chromosomal anomalies (1.0% [0.0-2.1%]); and more neonatal deaths (0.3% [-0.1 to 0.7%]). The difference in neonatal deaths was due to a preponderance of very immature liveborn infants in the chorion villus sampling group, and this factor also explained that group's longer mean stay in hospital. More abnormal diagnoses followed chorion villus than amniotic fluid analyses (5.6% vs 3.9%). This difference was largely due to diagnoses of trisomy 18 and of (usually mosaic) abnormalities known to be confined to the placenta. 3 terminated pregnancies were false positives, 1 tested by chorion villus sampling and 2 by amniocentesis, and 2 other mosaic cases diagnosed by chorion villus sampling may have been false positives. There was 1 false-negative result in the chorion villus sampling group. The possibility of earlier exclusion or diagnosis of some fetal disorders afforded by first-trimester chorion villus sampling must be set against its clinical risks.

Transabdominal chorionic villus sampling for rapid karyotyping in advanced gestation

Late pregnancy fetal karyotyping is not employed often because a clinical decision about labor and delivery may be required before the results would be available. However, percutaneous umbilical blood sampling (PUBS) has been used recently to obtain fast karyotypes. We have extended our chorionic villus sampling (CVS) procedure to the second and third trimesters and compared the results obtained with late CVS and PUBS. CVS karyotypes were obtained faster and may be technically easier to perform.

Randomized clinical trial of transabdominal versus transcervical chorionic villus sampling methods

The relative advantages and disadvantages of transabdominal (TA) and transcervical (TC) chorionic villus sampling (CVS) in terms of fetal risks and efficacy were evaluated in a clinical trial conducted on 1194 women randomized at 7-12 weeks' gestation. The results of the study indicate that, if any, the relative risk of fetal loss following either procedure is less than double that of the alternative technique when performed by a skilled operator. Overall, the fetal loss rate (spontaneous abortions following randomization, terminations of pregnancy, and perinatal deaths) is 16.5 and 15.5 per cent, respectively, among women allocated to TA- and TC-CVS. The two procedures are equally effective, although TA-CVS is associated with a significantly lower rate of repeat device insertions; on the other hand, a higher weight of chorionic tissue is obtained, on average, with TC-CVS. Bleeding is more common following TC-CVS, while peritoneal reaction developed only after TA-CVS. No diagnostic problems specifically related to one sampling technique were identified.

Chromosome analysis guidelines preliminary report

These guidelines have been developed by the Association of Cytogenetic Technologists (ACT) for chromosome analysis. In formulating its recommendations, the task force reviewed guidelines established by several states and regional genetics groups. Draft guidelines prepared by the task force were reviewed by a panel of expert consultants, all of whom are laboratory directors and well known in their respective fields of expertise. The intention of the task force was to reflect procedures that are believed to be generally accepted by cytogenetic laboratories as basic criteria for effective chromosome analysis and that are consistent with existing cytogenetic quality assurance guidelines. It is important to stress that the primary purpose of the task force at this time is to establish guidelines for chromosome analysis. While the present guidelines address issues other than chromosome analysis, they do so incidentally and only in general terms. A more comprehensive discussion of other technical aspects of cytogenetics can be found in the forthcoming second edition of the ACT Cytogenetics Laboratory Manual. It is important to note that these guidelines are not intended to prescribe appropriate analyses for all individual circumstances. That determination is appropriately a matter for the judgment of the laboratories concerned. ACT, its members, and the task force that assisted in preparation of these guidelines make no warranty and assume no liability with respect to the information contained herein.