Long-term trends in colorectal cancer: incidence, localization, and presentation

Background

The purpose of this study was to assess trends in incidence and presentation of colorectal cancer (CRC) over a period of 37 years in a stable population in Mid-Norway. Secondarily, we wanted to predict the future burden of CRC in the same catchment area.

Methods

All 2268 patients diagnosed with CRC at Levanger Hospital between 1980 and 2016 were included in this study. We used Poisson regression to calculate the incidence rate ratio (IRR) and analyse factors associated with incidence.

Results

The incidence of CRC increased from 43/100,000 person-years during 1980–1984 to 84/100,000 person-years during 2012–2016. Unadjusted IRR increased by 1.8% per year, corresponding to an overall increase in incidence of 94.5%. Changes in population (ageing and sex distribution) contributed to 28% of this increase, whereas 72% must be attributed to primary preventable factors associated with lifestyle. Compared with the last observational period, we predict a further 40% increase by 2030, and a 70% increase by 2040. Acute colorectal obstruction was associated with tumours in the left flexure and descending colon. Spontaneous colorectal perforation was associated with tumours in the descending colon, caecum, and sigmoid colon. The incidence of obstruction remained stable, while the incidence of perforation decreased throughout the observational period. The proportion of earlier stages at diagnosis increased significantly in recent decades.

Conclusion

CRC incidence increased substantially from 1980 to 2016, mainly due to primary preventable factors. The incidence will continue to increase during the next two decades, mainly due to further ageing of the population.

Bibliometric evaluation of systematic review and meta analyses published in the top 5 "high-impact" radiology journals

INTRODUCTION

Meta-analyses provide high-level evidence and understanding their trends may provide understanding of the field as a whole. Bibliometric analysis was undertaken to understand research trends in a particular field or subfield and to assess citation as a measure of impact.

METHODS

All journals categorised as "Radiology, Nuclear Medicine & Medical Imaging" under the Web of Science subject category were included. After analyzing impact factors of the journals in up to 2018, the top five journals were identified. The retrieved results were ordered by citation count based on Web of Science and Scopus. Specific parameters regarding the title, journal, publication year, authors, country of origin, institution and university, field of study and funding sources were analyzed.

RESULTS

A total of 139 articles were identified. The mean number of citations per article was 25.3 and 22.6 in Scopus and Web of Science respectively, with four articles receiving 100 or more citations. European Radiology had the greatest number of top cited articles (n = 68; 49%). Most number of articles originated from South Korea (n = 60; 43%) and the commonest field of focus with the most common being oncology (n = 51; 27%).

CONCLUSION

The top 5 high impact journals published a large number of meta-analysis and systematic reviews. The greatest number of top-cited articles were from South Korea, shifting away from the United States. Large number of studies focused on oncologic imaging, consistent with recent trends towards development of imaging biomarkers and personalized medicine. Author H index did not predict citation number or density.

Trends in teenage motherhood in Ecuador: challenges and inequalities

OBJECTIVES

To describe trends in teenage motherhood (TM), based on the socioeconomic groups teenagers belong to, and factors related to their first experience of heterosexual intercourse (FEHI). We took into consideration women aged 20-24 years, comparing three surveys from 1999, 2004, and 2012.

METHODS

We obtained data from the Ecuadorian Demographic and Health Surveys about 4,696 women aged 20-24 years who had given birth as teenagers. Prevalence ratios and their confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated to estimate changes in socioeconomic inequalities and factors related to the FEHI.

RESULTS

The prevalence of TM increased from 48% in 1999 to 60% in 2012 among women with complete primary education. The social gradient among socioeconomic groups were sustained. We detected no changes in the socioeconomic inequalities characterizing TM, and in the factors related to the FEHI across the three studies in Ecuador.

CONCLUSIONS

Socioeconomic inequalities in TM and disadvantageous circumstances at FEHI remained unchanged for 14 years. Some factors are vital for reducing teenage motherhood in Ecuador: gender-equitable economic development, access to comprehensive-sexual education, contraception, health services, and safe abortion.

A 10-year trend in income disparity of cardiovascular health among older adults in South Korea

Objectives

Although cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk has lessened in Korea, it is unclear whether older adults in all socioeconomic strata have benefited equally. This study explored trends in income disparities in CVD risk among older adults in Korea.

Methods

This was a secondary analysis of Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data (2008–2017), targeting 14,836 older adults (≥65 years). Socioeconomic position, defined as income and use of welfare benefits, was the primary indicator. The outcome was binary for predicted CVD risk (<90th vs. ≥ 90th). The Slope Index of Inequality (SII) and Relative Index of Inequality (RII) were used to assess trends in disparities.

Results

The percentage of older adults with a predicted CVD risk of 90% or more declined over time, but this was due to a decrease among the more affluent. Disparities have persisted since 2012, with a worsening trend seen for Medicaid recipients. We found significant absolute and relative disparities among men over 75 years of age in recent years (SII > 0.19, RII > 7).

Conclusions

These results may inform and improve policies regarding income disparity reduction and cardiovascular health.

•

Income disparities in CVD risk have persisted since 2012, with a worsening trend seen for Medicaid recipients.

•

Our results highlight the need to improve CVD risk management services offered to the economically disadvantaged.

•

It is important to consider both the absolute and relative terms when examining the disparity trends.

National and Subnational Trends in Mortality and Causes of Death in Chinese Children and Adolescents Aged 5-19 Years From 1953 to 2016

PURPOSE

We aimed to analyze the recent trends of mortality and rankings of causes of death in Chinese children and adolescents from 1953 to 2016.

METHODS

Data on mortality and causes of death in Chinese children and adolescents aged 5-19 years were extracted from the China Health Statistics Yearbook and the Global Burden of Disease Study from 1953 to 2016. Mortality variations were analyzed by year, age, sex, province, and causes of death.

RESULTS

The mortality of Chinese children and adolescents aged 5-19 years declined steadily from 1953 (366.03/100,000) to 2016 (27.21), with the largest reduction in adolescents aged 15-19 years and the smallest reduction in those aged 10-14 years. Large subnational disparities for all-cause mortality existed in national 31 provinces with higher mortality in western regions compared with eastern regions, but with narrowing disparities between 1981 and 2010. Injuries dominated the causes of death compared with noncommunicable diseases and communicable, maternal and neonatal, and nutritional diseases from 1990 (58.13/100,000 vs. 32.10 and 14.31) to 2016 (22.65 vs. 13.00 and 2.93). In 2016, the leading three causes of death were road injuries (8.30/100,000), drowning (7.25), and leukemia (2.60). Drowning was the leading cause of death for 5- to 14-year-olds, but road injuries have been the leading cause for 15- to 19-year-olds of both sexes since 2010.

CONCLUSIONS

Although mortality in Chinese adolescents now stands at just 7% of rates in the 1950s, there is a need to address continuing inequalities across sex, economic status, and region.

Enzyme-inducing antiseizure medication utilization in patients with epilepsy and vascular risk factors

OBJECTIVES

Several lines of evidence have suggested that exposure to enzyme-inducing antiseizure medications (EIASMs) may result in the subsequent development of hyperlipidemia, a well-known risk factor for vascular disease. This may be an issue of concern particularly in the context of additional comorbid vascular risk factors. We therefore aimed to investigate trends of and associations with the use of these medications among adult patients with epilepsy.

METHODS

The cross-sectional Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) was interrogated to ascertain the prevalence of use of EIASMs by noninstitutionalized adult patients with epilepsy in the United States between the years 2004 and 2015. Any patient prescribed carbamazepine, phenytoin, phenobarbital, or primidone within a given year was defined as having been prescribed an EIASM. Trends over three-year epochs were evaluated with univariate logistic regression, while associations with demographic factors, vascular risk factors, and vascular disease were evaluated using a chi-square test corrected for survey design as well as multivariate logistic regression.

RESULTS

A total of 2281 (unweighted) patients were identified, representing 1,781,237 individuals. Between 2004 and 2015, 45.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 42.4%-49.4%) were prescribed EIASMs. Approximately one-quarter of patients aged 65 years and above used EIASMs compared with 18.5% of younger patients (odds ratio [OR]: 1.83, 95% CI = 1.27-2.65). Female patients (OR = 0.61, 95% CI = 0.47-0.79) and those with heart disease (OR: 0.63, 95% CI = 0.45-0.89) were significantly less likely to be prescribed EIASMs. Among those prescribed EIASMs, 38.9% had hypertension, 12.2% had diabetes, 61.6% were overweight or obese, 17.3% heart disease, 17.2% had a history of a cerebrovascular event, and 28.5% had diagnosed hyperlipidemia. Nonetheless, between 2004-2006 and 2013-2015, the odds of EIASM prescription decreased significantly (OR: 0.39, 95% CI: 0.28-0.55).

CONCLUSIONS

A substantial proportion of patients with comorbid vascular disease or vascular risk factors (e.g., hypertension and older age) is prescribed EIASMs. This could potentially increase patients' risk for subsequent negative outcomes such as cardiovascular or cerebrovascular disease. Though utilization of these medications has decreased, further efforts toward increasing use of newer antiseizure medications (ASMs) that are not associated with similar risks may be warranted.

Temporal changes in short-term associations between cardiorespiratory emergency department visits and PM2.5 in Los Angeles, 2005 to 2016

BACKGROUND

Emissions control programs targeting certain air pollution sources may alter PM_2.5 composition, as well as the risk of adverse health outcomes associated with PM_2.5.

OBJECTIVES

We examined temporal changes in the risk of emergency department (ED) visits for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and asthma associated with short-term increases in ambient PM_2.5 concentrations in Los Angeles, California.

METHODS

Poisson log-linear models with unconstrained distributed exposure lags were used to estimate the risk of CVD and asthma ED visits associated with short-term increases in daily PM_2.5 concentrations, controlling for temporal and meteorological confounders. The models were run separately for three predefined time periods, which were selected based on the implementation of multiple emissions control programs (EARLY: 2005-2008; MIDDLE: 2009-2012; LATE: 2013-2016). Two-pollutant models with individual PM_2.5 components and the remaining PM_2.5 mass were also considered to assess the influence of changes in PM_2.5 composition on changes in the risk of CVD and asthma ED visits associated with PM_2.5 over time.

RESULTS

The relative risk of CVD ED visits associated with a 10 μg/m³ increase in 4-day PM_2.5 concentration (lag 0-3) was higher in the LATE period (rate ratio = 1.020, 95% confidence interval = [1.010, 1.030]) compared to the EARLY period (1.003, [0.996, 1.010]). In contrast, for asthma, relative risk estimates were largest in the EARLY period (1.018, [1.006, 1.029]), but smaller in the following periods. Similar temporal differences in relative risk estimates for CVD and asthma were observed among different age and season groups. No single component was identified as an obvious contributor to the changing risk estimates over time, and some components exhibited different temporal patterns in risk estimates from PM_2.5 total mass, such as a decreased risk of CVD ED visits associated with sulfate over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Temporal changes in the risk of CVD and asthma ED visits associated with short-term increases in ambient PM_2.5 concentrations were observed. These changes could be related to changes in PM_2.5 composition (e.g., an increasing fraction of organic carbon and a decreasing fraction of sulfate in PM_2.5). Other factors such as improvements in healthcare and differential exposure misclassification might also contribute to the changes.

Work stress on rise? Comparative analysis of trends in work stressors using the European working conditions survey

Objective

The rapid transformation of labor markets has been accompanied by the belief of rising stress at work. However, empirical evidence on such trends based on reliable survey data is scarce. This study analyzes long-term trends in well-established measures of work stressors across Europe, as well as potential occupational differences.

Methods

We use repeated cross-sectional data of 15 European countries from waves 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015 of the European Working Conditions Surveys. We apply three-way multilevel regressions (with employees nested in country-years, which are in turn nested in countries) to analyze trends in work stressors measured according to the demand-control and effort-reward imbalance models. Trends by occupational groups are also assessed.

Results

Our findings suggest that work stress generally increased from 1995 to 2015, and that the increase was mostly driven by psychological demands. People working in lower-skilled occupations had generally higher levels of job strain and effort-reward imbalance, as well as they tend to have a steeper increase in job strain than people working in higher-skilled occupations. Most of the change occurred from 1995 to 2005.

Conclusion

Our results indicate that work stress has been on rise since 1995, specifically for people working in disadvantageous occupations. This directs the attention to the vulnerable position of the least skilled and also to the use of preventive measures to counteract some of the disadvantages experienced by this occupational group.

Temporal trends of gestational malaria in the United States

BACKGROUND

Although regarded as rare in the United States (US), increased global traffic and importation of malaria from endemic countries may lead to a rise in gestational malaria in the US.

METHODS

This multi-year retrospective study analyzed trends in diagnosed cases of gestational malaria from 2002 to 2017 using joinpoint regression models. We also assessed the association between gestational malaria and selected maternal-fetal adverse outcomes.

RESULTS

Mothers diagnosed with gestational malaria tended to be older, and the majority of diagnosed cases (52.9%) were among Non-Hispanic (NH) Blacks. Diagnosed cases of gestational malaria are on the rise in the US. Mothers diagnosed with gestational malaria were 5 times as likely (OR = 5.05, 95% CI: 4.05-6.29) to be anemic as compared to those without malaria. Compared to NH-Whites, NH-Black mothers were twice as likely to experience stillbirth, had nearly 50% greater adjusted odds of severe preeclampsia, and had about 30% elevated likelihood for preterm labor.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a need to dedicate appropriate resources to identify women that are at risk for gestational malaria in order to prevent related pregnancy complications.

Prevalence, incidence, and trends of childhood overweight/obesity in Sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic scoping review

Background

The growing burden of non-communicable diseases (NDC), particularly in low-and middle-income countries, poses a significant threat to global health. Obesity and overweight constitute major risk factors of NCDs such as heart diseases, diabetes, and kidney disease, and as a result, contribute significantly to the development of chronic morbidities, reduced quality of life, and increased risk of premature death. This study described evidence on the prevalence, incidence, and trends of childhood overweight and obesity in sub-Sahara Africa (SSA).

Methods

We conducted a systematic scoping review employing the Arksey and O’Malley framework, Levac et al. recommendations, and the Joanna Briggs Institute guidelines. To obtain relevant published articles for this review, we performed a comprehensive keywords search in PubMed, Google Scholar, Web of Science, and CINAHL via EBSCOhost platform for studies published between 2009 and June 2019. Guided by the eligibility criteria, title and abstracts, as well as the full-text articles were independently screened in parallel by two investigators. All relevant data were independently extracted by two investigators using a piloted form designed in Microsoft and thematic analysis conducted.

Results

Of the 81 included studies obtained from 250,148 potentially eligible articles, the majority (25) conducted in South Africa followed by 18 in Nigeria. Six studies were conducted in Ethiopia (6), Tanzania (5), Kenya (4), Cameroon (4), Ghana (3), Uganda (2), Mozambique (2), and Sudan (2). One study each was conducted in Botswana, Gambia, Lesotho, Mauritius, Seychelles, Togo, and Zimbabwe. The remaining three articles were multi-country studies. Most (81.5%) of the included studies were cross-sectional surveys and the majority (79) focused on both male and female participants. The majority (80/81) of the included studies reported on the prevalence of childhood overweight/obesity, 8 on the trends of childhood overweight/obesity, and one presented evidence on the incidence of childhood overweight and obesity in SSA.

Conclusion

This review demonstrates limited studies on childhood overweight/obesity in most SSA countries although the included studies suggest an increasing burden. Considering the consequences of childhood obesity, there is a need for more primary researches to inform policies decision and implementation to halt the rise of childhood obesity/overweight in SSA.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13690-020-00491-2.

Annual Trends in Ultrasonography-Guided 14-Gauge Core Needle Biopsy for Breast Lesions

Objective

To examine time trends in ultrasonography (US)-guided 14-gauge core needle biopsy (CNB) for breast lesions based on the lesion size, Breast Imaging-Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) category, and pathologic findings.

Materials and Methods

We retrospectively reviewed consecutive US-guided 14-gauge CNBs performed from January 2005 to December 2016 at our institution. A total of 22,297 breast lesions were included. The total number of biopsies, tumor size (≤ 10 mm to > 40 mm), BI-RADS category (1 to 5), and pathologic findings (benign, high risk, ductal carcinoma in situ [DCIS], invasive cancer) were examined annually, and the malignancy rate was analyzed based on the BI-RADS category.

Results

Both the total number of US scans and US-guided CNBs increased while the proportion of US-guided CNBs to the total number of US scans decreased significantly. The number of biopsies classified based on the tumor size, BI-RADS category, and pathologic findings all increased over time, except for BI-RADS categories 1 or 2 and category 3 (odds ratio [OR] = 0.951 per year, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.902, 1.002 and odds ratio = 0.979, 95% CI: 0.970, 0.988, respectively). Both the unadjusted and adjusted total malignancy rates and the DCIS rate increased significantly over time. BI-RADS categories 4a, 4b, and 4c showed a significant increasing trend in the total malignancy rate and DCIS rate.

Conclusion

The malignancy rate in the results of US-guided 14-gauge CNB for breast lesions increased as the total number of biopsies increased from 2005 to 2016. This trend persisted after adjusting for the BI-RADS category.

Prevalence and trends of chronic kidney disease and its risk factors among US adults: An analysis of NHANES 2003-18

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a leading cause of mortalities, morbidities, and health-care costs in the United States; however, limited number of recent studies estimated the burden of CKD and its risk factors together. This cross-sectional study estimated the age-adjusted prevalence and trends of CKD and its risk factors, and the prevalence and trends of CKD according to presence of risk factors.

We analyzed National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2003–18 data. Individuals aged ≥20 years with albumin-creatinine ratio ≥30 mg/g or glomerular filtration rate <60 ml/min/1.73 m² were considered to have CKD. Following variables were considered as risk factors: hypertension, diabetes, high total cholesterol, high triglyceride, low high-density lipoprotein (HDL), obesity, abdominal obesity, insufficient aerobic physical activity (PA), and current tobacco smoking. Trends were compared by chi-square tests.

The age-adjusted prevalence (95% confidence interval) for CKD was 14.1% (13.1%–15.0%), 13.0% (12.3%–13.8%), 14.0% (13.0%–15.1%), and 13.3% (12.3%–14.4%) in 2003–06, 2007–10, 2011–14, and 2015–18, respectively (p[trend] = 0.24, N = 39569). This prevalence change was also minimal for most CKD stages. Non-Hispanic blacks and low-income people had a higher prevalence than all other races/ethnicities and income groups in most periods. Among risk factors, the prevalence of diabetes, high triglyceride, high total cholesterol, low HDL, obesity, abdominal obesity, and metabolic syndrome increased (p[trend] <0.05). The prevalence of hypertension remained static. The prevalence of current tobacco smoking and insufficient aerobic PA declined.

The age-adjusted prevalence of CKD has plateaued; however, the prevalence of some risk factors is increasing. Reducing the burden of these risk factors is also essential to reduce the prevalence of CKD.

10 year trends in hospitalization rates due to heart failure and related in-hospital mortality in Poland (2010-2019)

Aims

Heart failure (HF) remains a major public health challenge worldwide. Contemporary epidemiological data on HF hospitalization rates and related in‐hospital mortality are scarce also in Poland. The aim of the study was to determine the trends in hospitalization rates due to HF and related in‐hospital mortality in Poland in the recent decade.

Methods and results

Data on HF hospitalizations and in‐hospital mortality in patients aged >17 years in Poland between 2010 and 2019 were obtained from the central database of the Polish National Health Fund. Hospitalizations with either primary or secondary diagnosis of HF were identified using the 10th revision of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems codes (I50, I42, J81 with extensions, and R57.0). There were 4 259 698 HF hospitalizations and 608 577 in‐hospital deaths (14% in‐hospital mortality) reported during 2010–2019 in Poland. During this period, there was a steady increase in the number of HF hospitalizations per 1000 inhabitants in subsequent years, being more pronounced in men than in women (in 2019: 16 and 13 HF hospitalizations per 1000 inhabitants in men and women, respectively). The relative risk of HF hospitalization was higher in men than in women, and this gender‐related difference steadily increased from 9% in 2010 to 25% in 2019. During 2010–2019, there was an increase in the number of HF hospitalizations per 1000 inhabitants in subsequent age groups, with a trend being more pronounced in men than in women (129 and 99 HF hospitalizations per 1000 inhabitants in men and women aged ≥80 years, respectively). During this period, there was a slight increase in in‐hospital mortality during HF hospitalization in subsequent years, being more pronounced in women than in men (in 2019: 16% and 14% of in‐hospital mortality in women and men, respectively). The relative risk of in‐hospital mortality during HF hospitalization was higher in women than in men, and this gender‐related difference steadily increased from 8% in 2010 to 18% in 2019. During this period, in‐hospital mortality during HF hospitalization was ~12% for women and men aged 18–29 years, whereas the highest values of in‐hospital mortality reached ~19% for patients aged ≥80 years.

Conclusions

We have observed steady growing trends in HF hospitalization rates and related in‐hospital mortality in Poland over the last decade. Both age and gender have differentiated the reported epidemiological patterns.

Understanding the decline in under-18 conception rates throughout England's local authorities between 1998 and 2017

We consider England's two-decade teenage conception decline in the context of societal changes: rising educational aspirations; growing second- and third-generation teenage ethnic minority populations; increased deprivation associated with economic recession and post-2008 Government austerity; and changing housing availability. Using England's Local Authority Districts (LAD) 1998-2017, we explore the role of area characteristics in explaining spatial differences in under-18 conception rates and how changing characteristics may explain temporal changes. Urban/rural distinctions in teenage conceptions are largely minimised after considering LAD characteristics. Area characteristics continue to partly explain teenage conception rates but are better at explaining area differences than variation over time.

Moving Beyond Lewis: Employment and Wage Trends in China's High- and Low-Skilled Industries and the Emergence of an Era of Polarization: Presidential Address for the 2020 Association for Comparative Economic Studies Meetings

One of the defining features of China's economy over the two decades between 1995 and 2015 was the persistent rise of wages for workers and professionals in nearly every segment of the economy-with wage rates for labor-intensive jobs in manufacturing, construction, and the informal service sector rising the fastest. Recently, however, the economic environment in China has begun to change, including changes in both employment and wages. We identify recent employment/wage trends throughout China's economy and postulate the sources of these trends as well as possible future consequences if they continue. We use official, nationally aggregated data to examine employment and wages in multiple sectors and industries. Our findings indicate that China may have entered a new phase of economic development in the mid-2010s. According to the data, in recent years, wage growth has begun to polarize: Rising for professionals employed in formal skill-intensive industries; and falling for workers in the informal labor-intensive service sector. We attribute this increase in skill-intensive wages to an increase in demand for skill-intensive employment, due to the emergence of a large middle class in China, for whom the demand for high technology, finance, banking, health, and higher education industries is increasing while, at least in the recent short term, the supply of experienced, high-skilled professionals has not kept up. The employment/wage trend in the informal (low-wage) service sector, however, is following a different pattern. While there is a rising demand for services in China's economy, the growth, due to a number of factors (e.g., large shares of GDP targeted by policymakers to investment; high rates of savings by consumers), is relatively slow. In contrast, due to a number of economic forces, including globalization and automation, the supply of labor into the service sector of the informal economy is being fueled by the flow of labor out of manufacturing and construction (two industries that that have experienced employment declines since 2013). These supply and demand trends, in turn, are leading to the fall in the growth rate of wages in the informal service sector. We conclude by discussing the possible longer-term consequences of these emerging polarization trends based on an examination of recent experience with wage polarization occurring in both middle- and high-income countries, as well as its consequences. We also present policy recommendations for greater investment in education and human capital, as well as for the development of a more comprehensive set of social safety nets for different segments of China's population.

Trends and sex disparities in school bullying victimization among U.S. youth, 2011-2019

Background

The prevalence of being bullied traditionally among U.S. high school students is expected to reduce to 17.9%, according to Healthy People 2020 Initiatives. We examined trends in traditional victimization and cybervictimization with the latest large-scale time-series data in the United States.

Methods

We analyzed the data from the 2011–2019 national Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) to access the trends in traditional victimization and cybervictimization among U.S. high school students. We identified the temporal trends using multivariate logistic regression analyses, accounting for survey design features of YRBS. Participants included 72,605 high school students.

Results

The overall prevalence of victimization was 19.74% for traditional bullying and 15.38% for cyberbullying, suggesting that cyberbullying is not a low frequent phenomenon. The prevalence of victimization ranged from 20.19 to 19.04% for traditional victimization and 16.23 to 14.77% for cybervictimization, and the declined trends for the two kinds of bullying victimization were both statistically non-significant. The degree of overlap between the two kinds of bullying victimization was about 60%. Besides, female students reported more traditional victimization and cybervictimization than male peers within each survey cycle.

Conclusions

No declined trends in traditional victimization and cybervictimization were observed during 2011–2019. Female students are more likely to experience school bullying. To achieve the Healthy People 2020 goal on bullying, more work is needed to explore the underlying reasons behind these unchanging trends.

Trends in Cancer Screening Rates among Korean Men and Women: Results of the Korean National Cancer Screening Survey, 2004-2018

Purpose

The Korean National Cancer Screening Survey (KNCSS) is a nationwide annual cross-sectional survey conducted for the past 15 years. This study aimed to report trends in the overall screening rates of both organized and opportunistic cancer screening programs from 2004–2018.

Materials and Methods

KNCSS data were collected using a structured questionnaire. For five major cancers (i.e., stomach, liver, colorectal, breast, and cervical cancer), we evaluated both the lifetime screening rate and the screening rate with recommendations. The study population included men aged 40–74 years and women aged 20–74 years with no cancer histories.

Results

Screening rate with recommendations increased from 2004 annually by 4.4% and 1.5% until 2013 for stomach and liver cancers, respectively, by 4.0% until 2012 for breast cancer, and by 3.6% and 1.2% until 2014 for colorectal and cervical cancers, respectively, followed by nonsignificant trends thereafter. In 2018, screening rates with recommendations for these cancers were 72.8%, 26.2%, 63.1%, 58.4%, and 55.6%, respectively.

Conclusion

Screening rates for the five types of cancer demonstrated a marked increase between 2004 and 2018. However, many recent screening rates have been flattened with nonsignificant trends, and there are lower rates for cervical cancer screening among young age groups. Steady efforts are needed to achieve higher screening participation rates overall, especially for the cervical cancer screening of young women in their 20s.

Trends in the Incidence of Activities of Daily Living Disability Among Chinese Older Adults From 2002 to 2014

BACKGROUND

Evidence of the trend of the incidence of activities of daily living (ADL) disability among Chinese older people is limited. We aimed to investigate the time trends and potential risk factors for the incidence of ADL disability among Chinese older people (≥65 years).

METHODS

We established two consecutive and nonoverlapping cohorts (6,857 participants in the 2002 cohort and 5,589 participants in the 2008 cohort) from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey. ADL disability was defined as the need for assistance with at least one essential activity (dressing, bathing, toileting, eating, indoor activities, and continence). Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify factors associated with the trend in the incidence of ADL disability from 2002 to 2014.

RESULTS

The incidence (per 1,000 person-years) of ADL disability decreased significantly from 64.2 in the 2002 cohort to 46.6 in the 2008 cohort (p < .001), and decreasing trends in the incidence of ADL disability were observed for all sex, age, and residence subgroups (all p < .001), even after adjusting for multiple potential confounding factors. Moreover, we found that adjustment for sociodemographic, lifestyle information, and cardiovascular risk factors (hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, and stroke) explained less of the decline in ADL disability during the period from 2002 to 2014.

CONCLUSION

The incidence of ADL disability among the older adults in China appears to have decreased during the study period, and this finding cannot be explained by existing sociodemographic and lifestyle information and cardiovascular risk factors.

Current Trends (and Missing Links) in Educational Technology Research and Practice

It has historically been difficult to find reliable, up-to-date information about educational technology trends, such as what researchers are studying and what tools practitioners are using, thereby making it difficult for researchers and practitioners to synergize their efforts in meaningful, socially-responsive ways. In this editorial, I analyze titles and abstracts of 7708 research articles from prominent journals over the past 5 years to identify common topics-such as "online," "mobile," and "learning analytics." I also extract links from 51,496 K-12 school and 1317 university websites in the U.S. to identify common tools that they are linking to-such as Facebook, Twitter, Google Docs, and YouTube. I propose that these sorts of metrics provide a baseline understanding for other researchers and practitioners to draw upon when situating their work and that they can also give us insights into areas that merit greater attention for addressing real-world problems.

Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting Among Older Adults: Patterns, Outcomes, and Trends

INTRODUCTION

Although the numbers of older adults in the US are rapidly increasing, there is sparse recent data on the use and outcomes of coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) among this population. We aimed to evaluate the characteristics and outcomes of older adults undergoing CABG and to measure temporal trends.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Using data from the National Inpatient Sample (2005-2014), patients aged 85 y and older who underwent CABG were selected. Demographic, clinical, and hospital characteristics were extracted. Outcomes measured were hospital mortality, hospital length of stay, discharge home, and operative complications. Patients were grouped by 2-year increments. Differences in clinical characteristics and outcomes over time were evaluated using trend analyses.

RESULTS

There were 60,124 patients included in the cohort. The mean age was 86.8 y with majority being men (61%), white (88%), and treated in teaching hospitals (61%). Over the study period, the annual surgical volume decreased from 6689 in 2005/06 to 5150 in 2013/14. Mortality decreased from 8.5% to 5.5% (P-trend <0.001) and mean hospital length of stay decreased from 13.9 d to 12.0 d (P-trend <0.001), whereas the rate of discharge home remained stable (14.1% versus 11.6%, P-trend = 0.056). Compared with patients in 2005/06, those in 2013/14 had higher comorbidities [diabetes: 27.6% versus 17.3%; chronic kidney disease: 29.8% versus 9.2%; peripheral artery disease: 7.5% versus 6.0%; and hypertension: 83.7% versus 64.5% (all P-trend <0.001)].

CONCLUSIONS

CABG volumes are decreasing among older adults, and comorbidity burden is increasing, but outcomes are improving. These data may indicate improved preoperative optimization and better perioperative care processes.

Surgical trends in the management of acute cholecystitis during pregnancy

BACKGROUND

Since 2007, clinical practice guidelines by the Society of American Gastrointestinal and Endoscopic Surgeons (SAGES) recommend early surgical management with laparoscopic cholecystectomy for pregnant women with symptomatic gallbladder disease regardless of trimester. However, little is known about practice patterns in the management of pregnant patients with acute cholecystitis. This study aims to examine nationwide trends in the surgical management of acute cholecystitis, as well as their impact on clinical outcomes during pregnancy.

METHODS

The National Inpatient Sample was queried for all pregnant women diagnosed with acute cholecystitis between January 2003 and September 2015. After applying appropriate weights, multivariate regression analysis adjusted for patient- and hospital-level characteristics and quantified the impact of discharge year (2003-2007 versus 2008-2015) on cholecystectomy rates and timing of surgery. Multivariate regression analysis was also used to examine the impact of same admission cholecystectomy and its timing on maternal and fetal outcomes.

RESULTS

A total of 23,939 pregnant women with acute cholecystitis satisfied our inclusion criteria. The median age was 26 years (interquartile range: 22-30). During the study period, 36.3% were managed non-operatively while 59.6% and 4.1% underwent laparoscopic and open cholecystectomy, respectively. After adjusting for covariates, laparoscopic cholecystectomy was more commonly performed after 2007 (odds ratio [OR] 1.333, p < 0.001). Furthermore, time from admission to surgery was significantly shorter in the latter study period (regression coefficient -0.013, p < 0.001). Compared to non-operative management, laparoscopic cholecystectomy for acute cholecystitis was significantly associated with lower rates of preterm delivery, labor, or abortion (OR 0.410, p < 0.001). Each day that laparoscopic cholecystectomy was delayed significantly associated with an increased risk of fetal complications (OR 1.173, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

This nationwide study exhibits significant trends favoring surgical management of acute cholecystitis during pregnancy. Although further studies are still warranted, early laparoscopic cholecystectomy should be considered in pregnant patients with acute cholecystitis.

Opioid prescribing practices after posterior spinal arthrodesis for adolescent idiopathic scoliosis

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective review.

OBJECTIVE

To identify national trends in postoperative opioid prescribing practices after posterior spinal fusion (PSF) in patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS). Opioids are an important component of pain management after PSF for AIS. Given the national opioid crisis, it is important to understand opioid prescribing practices in these patients.

METHODS

Using a commercial prescription drug claims database, we identified AIS patients who underwent PSF from 2010 to 2016 and who were prescribed opioids postoperatively. An initial prescription at hospital discharge of ≥ 90 morphine milligram equivalents daily (MMED) was used to identify patients at risk of overdose according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidelines. Prescriptions for skeletal muscle relaxants were also identified. α = 0.05.

RESULTS

We included 3762 patients (75% female) with a mean (± standard deviation) age of 15 ± 2.1 years. 56% of patients filled only 1 opioid prescription after discharge, and 44% had ≥ 1 refills. 91% of opioid prescriptions were for hydrocodone (median strength, 43 MMED; mean strength, 65 ± 270 MMED) or oxycodone formulations (median strength, 60 MMED; mean strength, 79 ± 174 MMED). 82% of prescriptions complied with CDC guidelines (< 90 MMED). Overall, 612 patients (16%) filled ≥ 1 prescription for skeletal muscle relaxants, the most common being cyclobenzaprine (45%) and methocarbamol (29%). The percentage of patients filling > 1 prescription declined from 54% in 2010 to 31% in 2016 (p < 0.001). The proportion of patients receiving prescriptions for ≥ 90 MMED was highest in the West (29%) and lowest in the South (16%) (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Most opioid prescriptions after PSF in patients with AIS comply with CDC guidelines. Temporal and geographic variations show an opportunity for standardizing opioid prescribing practices in these patients.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

III.

Seasonal variation in trauma admissions to a level III trauma unit over 10 years

INTRODUCTION

Major trauma centres have improved morbidity and mortality for moderate and severely injured patients. Less injured patients may be treated in facilities less resourced for trauma care. In these units, understanding the variations in injury presentation and treatment over time allows service delivery to be tailored to demand. This study set out to describe seasonal variations in trauma over a 10-year period at a level III trauma unit.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patient demographics, admission frequency, site of injury, season of admission, management, complications, onward transfers, and length of stay were extracted on consecutive patients admitted with traumatic injuries between January 2009 and December 2018 and recorded on a prospectively maintained database. Analysis was undertaken to determine if there were reproducible patterns in trauma presentation across seasons, based on the patient's age and gender, type of injury, management and length of stay.

RESULTS

There were 13,007 'first admissions' over 10 years, with a mean (SD) age of 55.6 (27.7) years. Admissions were higher in summer (27%) and lower in winter (23.6%) and patients were on average younger in the summer (52.8 years) and older in winter (59.2 years). The proportion of female and male patients remained relatively constant across seasons (CV=6% and 8%, respectively). There was seasonal variation in the incidence of forearm (36%) elbow (19%), and multi-sites injuries (17%) compared with hip and wrist injuries (CV=5% for both). A lower proportion of patients underwent operations in summer (72%) compared with other seasons with winter having the highest at 77%. More patients aged less than 60 years stayed in hospital during winter than summer (13.2% vs. 11.6-12.4%) although often for a day. Patients aged 60 years stayed longer in spring and winter.

CONCLUSION

The results of this study demonstrate trends in the admission and management of trauma patients to a level III trauma unit. Some of the patterns in admission, treatment and length of stay had not been identified previously. The results can be used to enhance patient care and minimise health care costs by reducing unwarranted variations and enabling service delivery to match the demand in all trauma units.

[Tuberculosis trend in Madrid region in native and foreign population (2009-2018).]

OBJECTIVE

Tuberculosis is a major public health problem and most cases are concentrated in vulnerable populations. The objective was to describe the incidence rates trend in native and foreign population (2009-2018) in Madrid Region.

METHODS

Retrospective analysis of cases from the Tuberculosis Regional Registry of cases of Madrid Region 2009-2018. Annual incidence rates were calculated by country of birth (Spain, other), sex and age group (<15, 15-34, 35-44, 45-64, >64), using the annual January 1st continuous register population. The infection rate trend and the annual percentage change (APC) were calculated, along with the best jointpoint adjustment using Jointpoint regression.

RESULTS

7,696 cases were analyzed, 48.2% were foreign-born individuals. Average age in native population was 50 years old (SD: 23.96) and 35 (DS: 36.64) in foreign-born individuals (p<0.001). The overall incidence rate decreased from 17.30 in 2009 to 9.00 per 100,000 in 2018 and was higher in men. Pulmonary tuberculosis reduced from 11.90 to 6.55. Among native population, the incidence of TB fell from 10.29 to 5.24 with an APC of -7.3% (95%IC: -8.9; -5.7) (p<0.05), no jointpoint was identified. Among foreign-born individuals the incidence of tuberculosis declined from 46.54 to 25.49, a joint point was identified in 2013, observing an incidence decrease for the period 2009-2013 and APC of -13.8% (IC95%: -17.5; -10.0).

CONCLUSIONS

The global incidence rate in this period has decreased by approximately 7% per year. However, this reduction occurred mainly in native population. In foreign-born individuals the incidence decreased by approximately 14% during the 2009-2013 period, after this period there have been no significant incidence changes.

Temporal trends in decompensated heart failure and outcomes during COVID-19: a multisite report from heart failure referral centres in London

AIMS

Admission rates for acute decompensated heart failure (HF) declined during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the impact of this reduction on hospital mortality is unknown. We describe temporal trends in the presentation of patients with acute HF and their in-hospital outcomes at two referral centres in London during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 1372 patients hospitalized for HF in two referral centres in South London between 7 January and 14 June 2020 were included in the study and their outcomes compared with those of equivalent patients of the same time period in 2019. The primary outcome was all-cause in-hospital mortality. The number of HF hospitalizations was significantly reduced during the COVID-19 pandemic, compared with 2019 (P < 0.001). Specifically, we observed a temporary reduction in hospitalizations during the COVID-19 peak, followed by a return to 2019 levels. Patients admitted during the COVID-19 pandemic had demographic characteristics similar to those admitted during the equivalent period in 2019. However, in-hospital mortality was significantly higher in 2020 than in 2019 (P = 0.015). Hospitalization in 2020 was independently associated with worse in-hospital mortality (hazard ratio 2.23, 95% confidence interval 1.34-3.72; P = 0.002).

CONCLUSIONS

During the COVID-19 pandemic there was a reduction in HF hospitalization and a higher rate of in-hospital mortality. Hospitalization for HF in 2020 is independently associated with more adverse outcomes. Further studies are required to investigate the predictors of these adverse outcomes to help inform potential changes to the management of HF patients while some constraints to usual care remain.