Cancer prevention with aspirin in hereditary colorectal cancer (Lynch syndrome), 10-year follow-up and registry-based 20-year data in the CAPP2 study: a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Lynch syndrome is associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer and with a broader spectrum of cancers, especially endometrial cancer. In 2011, our group reported long-term cancer outcomes (mean follow-up 55·7 months [SD 31·4]) for participants with Lynch syndrome enrolled into a randomised trial of daily aspirin versus placebo. This report completes the planned 10-year follow-up to allow a longer-term assessment of the effect of taking regular aspirin in this high-risk population.

METHODS

In the double-blind, randomised CAPP2 trial, 861 patients from 43 international centres worldwide (707 [82%] from Europe, 112 [13%] from Australasia, 38 [4%] from Africa, and four [<1%] from The Americas) with Lynch syndrome were randomly assigned to receive 600 mg aspirin daily or placebo. Cancer outcomes were monitored for at least 10 years from recruitment with English, Finnish, and Welsh participants being monitored for up to 20 years. The primary endpoint was development of colorectal cancer. Analysis was by intention to treat and per protocol. The trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN59521990.

FINDINGS

Between January, 1999, and March, 2005, 937 eligible patients with Lynch syndrome, mean age 45 years, commenced treatment, of whom 861 agreed to be randomly assigned to the aspirin group or placebo; 427 (50%) participants received aspirin and 434 (50%) placebo. Participants were followed for a mean of 10 years approximating 8500 person-years. 40 (9%) of 427 participants who received aspirin developed colorectal cancer compared with 58 (13%) of 434 who received placebo. Intention-to-treat Cox proportional hazards analysis revealed a significantly reduced hazard ratio (HR) of 0·65 (95% CI 0·43-0·97; p=0·035) for aspirin versus placebo. Negative binomial regression to account for multiple primary events gave an incidence rate ratio of 0·58 (0·39-0·87; p=0·0085). Per-protocol analyses restricted to 509 who achieved 2 years' intervention gave an HR of 0·56 (0·34-0·91; p=0·019) and an incidence rate ratio of 0·50 (0·31-0·82; p=0·0057). Non-colorectal Lynch syndrome cancers were reported in 36 participants who received aspirin and 36 participants who received placebo. Intention-to-treat and per-protocol analyses showed no effect. For all Lynch syndrome cancers combined, the intention-to-treat analysis did not reach significance but per-protocol analysis showed significantly reduced overall risk for the aspirin group (HR=0·63, 0·43-0·92; p=0·018). Adverse events during the intervention phase between aspirin and placebo groups were similar, and no significant difference in compliance between intervention groups was observed for participants with complete intervention phase data; details reported previously.

INTERPRETATION

The case for prevention of colorectal cancer with aspirin in Lynch syndrome is supported by our results.

FUNDING

Cancer Research UK, European Union, MRC, NIHR, Bayer Pharma AG, Barbour Foundation.

Melanoma Genomics

The incidence of cutaneous melanoma continues to increase in pale skinned peoples in Europe and elsewhere. Epidemiological studies identified genetically determined phenotypes such as pale skin, freckles and red hair, and sunburn as risk factors for this cancer. The development of many melanocytic naevi is also genetically determined and a strong melanoma risk phenotype. Not surprisingly then, genome wide association studies have identified pigmentation genes as common risk genes, and to a lesser extent, genes associated with melanocytic naevi. More unexpectedly, genes associated with telomere length have also been identified as risk genes. Higher risk susceptibility genes have been identified, particularly CDKN2A as the most common cause, and very rarely genes such as CDK4, POT1, TERT and other genes in coding for proteins in the shelterin complex are found to be mutated. Familial melanoma genes are associated with an increased number of melanocytic naevi but not invariably and the atypical naevus phenotype is therefore an imperfect marker of gene carrier status. At a somatic level, the most common driver mutation is BRAF, second most common NRAS, third NF1 and increasing numbers of additional rarer mutations are being identified such as in TP53. It is of note that the BRAF and NRAS mutations are not C>T accepted as characteristic of ultraviolet light induced mutations.

Genome-wide association meta-analyses combining multiple risk phenotypes provide insights into the genetic architecture of cutaneous melanoma susceptibility

Most genetic susceptibility to cutaneous melanoma remains to be discovered. Meta-analysis genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 36,760 cases of melanoma (67% newly genotyped) and 375,188 controls identified 54 significant (P < 5 × 10-8) loci with 68 independent single nucleotide polymorphisms. Analysis of risk estimates across geographical regions and host factors suggests the acral melanoma subtype is uniquely unrelated to pigmentation. Combining this meta-analysis with GWAS of nevus count and hair color, and transcriptome association approaches, uncovered 31 potential secondary loci for a total of 85 cutaneous melanoma susceptibility loci. These findings provide insights into cutaneous melanoma genetic architecture, reinforcing the importance of nevogenesis, pigmentation and telomere maintenance, together with identifying potential new pathways for cutaneous melanoma pathogenesis.

Development and external validation study of a melanoma risk prediction model incorporating clinically assessed naevi and solar lentigines

BACKGROUND

Melanoma risk prediction models could be useful for matching preventive interventions to patients' risk.

OBJECTIVES

To develop and validate a model for incident first-primary cutaneous melanoma using clinically assessed risk factors.

METHODS

We used unconditional logistic regression with backward selection from the Australian Melanoma Family Study (461 cases and 329 controls) in which age, sex and city of recruitment were kept in each step, and we externally validated it using the Leeds Melanoma Case-Control Study (960 cases and 513 controls). Candidate predictors included clinically assessed whole-body naevi and solar lentigines, and self-assessed pigmentation phenotype, sun exposure, family history and history of keratinocyte cancer. We evaluated the predictive strength and discrimination of the model risk factors using odds per age- and sex-adjusted SD (OPERA) and the area under curve (AUC), and calibration using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test.

RESULTS

The final model included the number of naevi ≥ 2 mm in diameter on the whole body, solar lentigines on the upper back (a six-level scale), hair colour at age 18 years and personal history of keratinocyte cancer. Naevi was the strongest risk factor; the OPERA was 3·51 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2·71-4·54] in the Australian study and 2·56 (95% CI 2·23-2·95) in the Leeds study. The AUC was 0·79 (95% CI 0·76-0·83) in the Australian study and 0·73 (95% CI 0·70-0·75) in the Leeds study. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test P-value was 0·30 in the Australian study and < 0·001 in the Leeds study.

CONCLUSIONS

This model had good discrimination and could be used by clinicians to stratify patients by melanoma risk for the targeting of preventive interventions. What's already known about this topic? Melanoma risk prediction models may be useful in prevention by tailoring interventions to personalized risk levels. For reasons of feasibility, time and cost many melanoma prediction models use self-assessed risk factors. However, individuals tend to underestimate their naevus numbers. What does this study add? We present a melanoma risk prediction model, which includes clinically-assessed whole-body naevi and solar lentigines, and self-assessed risk factors including pigmentation phenotype and history of keratinocyte cancer. This model performs well on discrimination, the model's ability to distinguish between individuals with and without melanoma, and may assist clinicians to stratify patients by melanoma risk for targeted preventive interventions.

Cumulative Burden of Colorectal Cancer-Associated Genetic Variants Is More Strongly Associated With Early-Onset vs Late-Onset Cancer

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Early-onset colorectal cancer (CRC, in persons younger than 50 years old) is increasing in incidence; yet, in the absence of a family history of CRC, this population lacks harmonized recommendations for prevention. We aimed to determine whether a polygenic risk score (PRS) developed from 95 CRC-associated common genetic risk variants was associated with risk for early-onset CRC.

METHODS

We studied risk for CRC associated with a weighted PRS in 12,197 participants younger than 50 years old vs 95,865 participants 50 years or older. PRS was calculated based on single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with CRC in a large-scale genome-wide association study as of January 2019. Participants were pooled from 3 large consortia that provided clinical and genotyping data: the Colon Cancer Family Registry, the Colorectal Transdisciplinary Study, and the Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium and were all of genetically defined European descent. Findings were replicated in an independent cohort of 72,573 participants.

RESULTS

Overall associations with CRC per standard deviation of PRS were significant for early-onset cancer, and were stronger compared with late-onset cancer (P for interaction = .01); when we compared the highest PRS quartile with the lowest, risk increased 3.7-fold for early-onset CRC (95% CI 3.28-4.24) vs 2.9-fold for late-onset CRC (95% CI 2.80-3.04). This association was strongest for participants without a first-degree family history of CRC (P for interaction = 5.61 × 10-5). When we compared the highest with the lowest quartiles in this group, risk increased 4.3-fold for early-onset CRC (95% CI 3.61-5.01) vs 2.9-fold for late-onset CRC (95% CI 2.70-3.00). Sensitivity analyses were consistent with these findings.

CONCLUSIONS

In an analysis of associations with CRC per standard deviation of PRS, we found the cumulative burden of CRC-associated common genetic variants to associate with early-onset cancer, and to be more strongly associated with early-onset than late-onset cancer, particularly in the absence of CRC family history. Analyses of PRS, along with environmental and lifestyle risk factors, might identify younger individuals who would benefit from preventive measures.

Circulating Levels of Insulin-like Growth Factor 1 and Insulin-like Growth Factor Binding Protein 3 Associate With Risk of Colorectal Cancer Based on Serologic and Mendelian Randomization Analyses

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Human studies examining associations between circulating levels of insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF1) and insulin-like growth factor binding protein 3 (IGFBP3) and colorectal cancer risk have reported inconsistent results. We conducted complementary serologic and Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to determine whether alterations in circulating levels of IGF1 or IGFBP3 are associated with colorectal cancer development.

METHODS

Serum levels of IGF1 were measured in blood samples collected from 397,380 participants from the UK Biobank, from 2006 through 2010. Incident cancer cases and cancer cases recorded first in death certificates were identified through linkage to national cancer and death registries. Complete follow-up was available through March 31, 2016. For the MR analyses, we identified genetic variants associated with circulating levels of IGF1 and IGFBP3. The association of these genetic variants with colorectal cancer was examined with 2-sample MR methods using genome-wide association study consortia data (52,865 cases with colorectal cancer and 46,287 individuals without [controls]) RESULTS: After a median follow-up period of 7.1 years, 2665 cases of colorectal cancer were recorded. In a multivariable-adjusted model, circulating level of IGF1 associated with colorectal cancer risk (hazard ratio per 1 standard deviation increment of IGF1, 1.11; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05-1.17). Similar associations were found by sex, follow-up time, and tumor subsite. In the MR analyses, a 1 standard deviation increment in IGF1 level, predicted based on genetic factors, was associated with a higher risk of colorectal cancer risk (odds ratio 1.08; 95% CI 1.03-1.12; P = 3.3 × 10-4). Level of IGFBP3, predicted based on genetic factors, was associated with colorectal cancer risk (odds ratio per 1 standard deviation increment, 1.12; 95% CI 1.06-1.18; P = 4.2 × 10-5). Colorectal cancer risk was associated with only 1 variant in the IGFBP3 gene region (rs11977526), which also associated with anthropometric traits and circulating level of IGF2.

CONCLUSIONS

In an analysis of blood samples from almost 400,000 participants in the UK Biobank, we found an association between circulating level of IGF1 and colorectal cancer. Using genetic data from 52,865 cases with colorectal cancer and 46,287 controls, a higher level of IGF1, determined by genetic factors, was associated with colorectal cancer. Further studies are needed to determine how this signaling pathway might contribute to colorectal carcinogenesis.

Environmental Exposures Such as Smoking and Low Vitamin D Are Predictive of Poor Outcome in Cutaneous Melanoma rather than Other Deprivation Measures

A lack of basic resources within a society (deprivation) is associated with increased cancer mortality, and this relationship has been described for melanoma. We have previously reported the association of smoking and low vitamin D levels with melanoma death. In this study, we further explored the associations of these with melanoma in addition to deprivation and socio-economic stressors. In this analysis of 2,183 population-ascertained primary cutaneous melanoma patients, clinical, demographic, and socio-economic variables were assessed as predictors of tumor thickness, melanoma death and overall death. Using the Townsend deprivation score, the most deprived group did not have thicker tumors compared to the least deprived. Of the World Health Organization 25x25 risk factors for premature death, smoking and body mass index (BMI) were independently associated with thicker tumors. Low vitamin D was also independently associated with thicker tumors. No socio-economic stressors were independent predictors of thickness. Smoking was confirmed as a key predictor of melanoma death and overall death, as were low vitamin D levels, independent of other measures of deprivation. Neither BMI nor the Townsend deprivation score were predictive in either survival analysis. We report evidence for the role of smoking, vitamin D, and BMI in melanoma progression independent of a postcode-derived measure of deprivation.

Physical activity and risks of breast and colorectal cancer: a Mendelian randomisation analysis

Physical activity has been associated with lower risks of breast and colorectal cancer in epidemiological studies; however, it is unknown if these associations are causal or confounded. In two-sample Mendelian randomisation analyses, using summary genetic data from the UK Biobank and GWA consortia, we found that a one standard deviation increment in average acceleration was associated with lower risks of breast cancer (odds ratio [OR]: 0.51, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.27 to 0.98, P-value = 0.04) and colorectal cancer (OR: 0.66, 95% CI: 0.48 to 0.90, P-value = 0.01). We found similar magnitude inverse associations for estrogen positive (ER+ve) breast cancer and for colon cancer. Our results support a potentially causal relationship between higher physical activity levels and lower risks of breast cancer and colorectal cancer. Based on these data, the promotion of physical activity is probably an effective strategy in the primary prevention of these commonly diagnosed cancers.

Transcriptomic Analysis Reveals Prognostic Molecular Signatures of Stage I Melanoma

PURPOSE

Previously identified transcriptomic signatures have been based on primary and metastatic melanomas with relatively few American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage I tumors, given difficulties in sampling small tumors. The advent of adjuvant therapies has highlighted the need for better prognostic and predictive biomarkers, especially for AJCC stage I and stage II disease.

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN

A total of 687 primary melanoma transcriptomes were generated from the Leeds Melanoma Cohort (LMC). The prognostic value of existing signatures across all the AJCC stages was tested. Unsupervised clustering was performed, and the prognostic value of the resultant signature was compared with that of sentinel node biopsy (SNB) and tested as a biomarker in three published immunotherapy datasets.

RESULTS

Previous Lund and The Cancer Genome Atlas signatures predicted outcome in the LMC dataset (P = 10-8 to 10-4) but showed a significant interaction with AJCC stage (P = 0.04) and did not predict outcome in stage I tumors (P = 0.3-0.7). Consensus-based classification of the LMC dataset identified six classes that predicted outcome, notably in stage I disease. LMC class was a similar indicator of prognosis when compared with SNB, and it added prognostic value to the genes reported by Gerami and colleagues. One particular LMC class consistently predicted poor outcome in patients receiving immunotherapy in two of three tested datasets. Biological characterization of this class revealed high JUN and AXL expression and evidence of epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition.

CONCLUSIONS

A transcriptomic signature of primary melanoma was identified with prognostic value, including in stage I melanoma and in patients undergoing immunotherapy.

Vitamin D-VDR Signaling Inhibits Wnt/β-Catenin-Mediated Melanoma Progression and Promotes Antitumor Immunity

1α,25-Dihydroxyvitamin D3 signals via the vitamin D receptor (VDR). Higher serum vitamin D is associated with thinner primary melanoma and better outcome, although a causal mechanism has not been established. As patients with melanoma commonly avoid sun exposure, and consequent vitamin D deficiency might worsen outcomes, we interrogated 703 primary melanoma transcriptomes to understand the role of vitamin D-VDR signaling and replicated the findings in The Cancer Genome Atlas metastases. VDR expression was independently protective for melanoma-related death in both primary and metastatic disease. High tumor VDR expression was associated with upregulation of pathways mediating antitumor immunity and corresponding with higher imputed immune cell scores and histologically detected tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes. High VDR-expressing tumors had downregulation of proliferative pathways, notably Wnt/β-catenin signaling. Deleterious low VDR levels resulted from promoter methylation and gene deletion in metastases. Vitamin D deficiency (<25 nmol/L ∼ 10 ng/mL) shortened survival in primary melanoma in a VDR-dependent manner. In vitro functional validation studies showed that elevated vitamin D-VDR signaling inhibited Wnt/β-catenin signaling genes. Murine melanoma cells overexpressing VDR produced fewer pulmonary metastases than controls in tail-vein metastasis assays. In summary, vitamin D-VDR signaling contributes to controlling pro-proliferative/immunosuppressive Wnt/β-catenin signaling in melanoma and this is associated with less metastatic disease and stronger host immune responses. This is evidence of a causal relationship between vitamin D-VDR signaling and melanoma survival, which should be explored as a therapeutic target in primary resistance to checkpoint blockade. SIGNIFICANCE: VDR expression could potentially be used as a biomarker to stratify patients with melanoma that may respond better to immunotherapy.

Estimating CDKN2A mutation carrier probability among global familial melanoma cases using GenoMELPREDICT

BACKGROUND

Although rare in the general population, highly penetrant germline mutations in CDKN2A are responsible for 5%-40% of melanoma cases reported in melanoma-prone families. We sought to determine whether MELPREDICT was generalizable to a global series of families with melanoma and whether performance improvements can be achieved.

METHODS

In total, 2116 familial melanoma cases were ascertained by the international GenoMEL Consortium. We recapitulated the MELPREDICT model within our data (GenoMELPREDICT) to assess performance improvements by adding phenotypic risk factors and history of pancreatic cancer. We report areas under the curve (AUC) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) along with net reclassification indices (NRIs) as performance metrics.

RESULTS

MELPREDICT performed well (AUC 0.752, 95% CI 0.730-0.775), and GenoMELPREDICT performance was similar (AUC 0.748, 95% CI 0.726-0.771). Adding a reported history of pancreatic cancer yielded discriminatory improvement (P < .0001) in GenoMELPREDICT (AUC 0.772, 95% CI 0.750-0.793, NRI 0.40). Including phenotypic risk factors did not improve performance.

CONCLUSION

The MELPREDICT model functioned well in a global data set of familial melanoma cases. Adding pancreatic cancer history improved model prediction. GenoMELPREDICT is a simple tool for predicting CDKN2A mutational status among melanoma patients from melanoma-prone families and can aid in directing these patients to receive genetic testing or cancer risk counseling.

High-Resolution Copy Number Patterns From Clinically Relevant FFPE Material

Systematic tumour profiling is essential for biomarker research and clinically for assessing response to therapy. Solving the challenge of delivering informative copy number (CN) profiles from formalin-fixed paraffin embedded (FFPE) material, the only likely readily available biospecimen for most cancers, involves successful processing of small quantities of degraded DNA. To investigate the potential for analysis of such lesions, whole-genome CNVseq was applied to 300 FFPE primary tumour samples, obtained from a large-scale epidemiological study of melanoma. The quality and the discriminatory power of CNVseq was assessed. Libraries were successfully generated for 93% of blocks, with input DNA quantity being the only predictor of success (success rate dropped to 65% if <20 ng available); 3% of libraries were dropped because of low sequence alignment rates. Technical replicates showed high reproducibility. Comparison with targeted CN assessment showed consistency with the Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) analysis. We were able to detect and distinguish CN changes with a resolution of ≤10 kb. To demonstrate performance, we report the spectrum of genomic CN alterations (CNAs) detected at 9p21, the major site of CN change in melanoma. This successful analysis of CN in FFPE material using NGS provides proof of principle for intensive examination of population-based samples.

Genetic and Environmental Determinants of Immune Response to Cutaneous Melanoma

The immune response to melanoma improves the survival in untreated patients and predicts the response to immune checkpoint blockade. Here, we report genetic and environmental predictors of the immune response in a large primary cutaneous melanoma cohort. Bioinformatic analysis of 703 tumor transcriptomes was used to infer immune cell infiltration and to categorize tumors into immune subgroups, which were then investigated for association with biological pathways, clinicopathologic factors, and copy number alterations. Three subgroups, with "low", "intermediate", and "high" immune signals, were identified in primary tumors and replicated in metastatic tumors. Genes in the low subgroup were enriched for cell-cycle and metabolic pathways, whereas genes in the high subgroup were enriched for IFN and NF-κB signaling. We identified high MYC expression partially driven by amplification, HLA-B downregulation, and deletion of IFNγ and NF-κB pathway genes as the regulators of immune suppression. Furthermore, we showed that cigarette smoking, a globally detrimental environmental factor, modulates immunity, reducing the survival primarily in patients with a strong immune response. Together, these analyses identify a set of factors that can be easily assessed that may serve as predictors of response to immunotherapy in patients with melanoma. SIGNIFICANCE: These findings identify novel genetic and environmental modulators of the immune response against primary cutaneous melanoma and predict their impact on patient survival.See related commentary by Anichini, p. 2457.

Association of the POT1 Germline Missense Variant p.I78T With Familial Melanoma

Importance

The protection of telomeres 1 protein (POT1) is a critical component of the shelterin complex, a multiple-protein machine that regulates telomere length and protects telomere ends. Germline variants in POT1 have been linked to familial melanoma, and somatic mutations are associated with a range of cancers including cutaneous T-cell lymphoma (CTCL).

Objective

To characterize pathogenic variation in POT1 in families with melanoma to inform clinical management.

Design, Setting, and Participants

In this case study and pedigree evaluation, analysis of the pedigree of 1 patient with melanoma revealed a novel germline POT1 variant (p.I78T, c.233T>C, chromosome 7, g.124870933A>G, GRCh38) that was subsequently found in 2 other pedigrees obtained from the GenoMEL Consortium.

Main Outcomes and Measures

(1) Identification of the POT1 p.I78T variant; (2) evaluation of the clinical features and characteristics of patients with this variant; (3) analysis of 3 pedigrees; (4) genomewide single-nucleotide polymorphism genotyping of germline DNA; and (5) a somatic genetic analysis of available nevi and 1 melanoma lesion.

Results

The POT1 p.I78T variant was found in 3 melanoma pedigrees, all of persons who self-reported as being of Jewish descent, and was shown to disrupt POT1-telomere binding. A UV mutation signature was associated with nevus and melanoma formation in POT1 variant carriers, and somatic mutations in driver genes such as BRAF, NRAS, and KIT were associated with lesion development in these patients.

Conclusions and Relevance

POT1 p.I78T is a newly identified, likely pathogenic, variant meriting screening for in families with melanoma after more common predisposition genes such as CDKN2A have been excluded. It could also be included as part of gene panel testing.

Publisher Correction: Novel pleiotropic risk loci for melanoma and nevus density implicate multiple biological pathways

The original version of this Article contained errors in the spelling of the authors Fan Liu and M. Arfan Ikram, which were incorrectly given as Fan Lui and Arfan M. Ikram. In addition, the original version of this Article also contained errors in the author affiliations which are detailed in the associated Publisher Correction.

Discovery of common and rare genetic risk variants for colorectal cancer

To further dissect the genetic architecture of colorectal cancer (CRC), we performed whole-genome sequencing of 1,439 cases and 720 controls, imputed discovered sequence variants and Haplotype Reference Consortium panel variants into genome-wide association study data, and tested for association in 34,869 cases and 29,051 controls. Findings were followed up in an additional 23,262 cases and 38,296 controls. We discovered a strongly protective 0.3% frequency variant signal at CHD1. In a combined meta-analysis of 125,478 individuals, we identified 40 new independent signals at P < 5 × 10-8, bringing the number of known independent signals for CRC to ~100. New signals implicate lower-frequency variants, Krüppel-like factors, Hedgehog signaling, Hippo-YAP signaling, long noncoding RNAs and somatic drivers, and support a role for immune function. Heritability analyses suggest that CRC risk is highly polygenic, and larger, more comprehensive studies enabling rare variant analysis will improve understanding of biology underlying this risk and influence personalized screening strategies and drug development.

Combining common genetic variants and non-genetic risk factors to predict risk of cutaneous melanoma

Melanoma heritability is among the highest for cancer and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) contribute to it. To date, only SNPs that reached statistical significance in genome-wide association studies or few candidate SNPs have been included in melanoma risk prediction models. We compared four approaches for building polygenic risk scores (PRS) using 12 874 melanoma cases and 23 203 controls from Melanoma Meta-Analysis Consortium as a training set, and newly genotyped 3102 cases and 2301 controls from the MelaNostrum consortium for validation. We estimated adjusted odds ratios (ORs) for melanoma risk using traditional melanoma risk factors and the PRS with the largest area under the receiver operator characteristics curve (AUC). We estimated absolute risks combining the PRS and other risk factors, with age- and sex-specific melanoma incidence and competing mortality rates from Italy as an example. The best PRS, including 204 SNPs (AUC = 64.4%; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 63-65.8%), developed using winner's curse estimate corrections, had a per-quintile OR = 1.35 (95% CI = 1.30-1.41), corresponding to a 3.33-fold increase comparing the 5th to the 1st PRS quintile. The AUC improvement by adding the PRS was up to 7%, depending on adjusted factors and country. The 20-year absolute risk estimates based on the PRS, nevus count and pigmentation characteristics for a 60-year-old Italian man ranged from 0.5 to 11.8% (relative risk  = 26.34), indicating good separation.

Assessing the Incremental Contribution of Common Genomic Variants to Melanoma Risk Prediction in Two Population-Based Studies

It is unclear to what degree genomic and traditional (phenotypic and environmental) risk factors overlap in their prediction of melanoma risk. We evaluated the incremental contribution of common genomic variants (in pigmentation, nevus, and other pathways) and their overlap with traditional risk factors, using data from two population-based case-control studies from Australia (n = 1,035) and the United Kingdom (n = 1,460) that used the same questionnaires. Polygenic risk scores were derived from 21 gene regions associated with melanoma and odds ratios from published meta-analyses. Logistic regression models were adjusted for age, sex, center, and ancestry. Adding the polygenic risk score to a model with traditional risk factors increased the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) by 2.3% (P = 0.003) for Australia and by 2.8% (P = 0.002) for Leeds. Gene variants in the pigmentation pathway, particularly MC1R, were responsible for most of the incremental improvement. In a cross-tabulation of polygenic by traditional tertile risk scores, 59% (Australia) and 49% (Leeds) of participants were categorized in the same (concordant) tertile. Of participants with low traditional risk, 9% (Australia) and 21% (Leeds) had high polygenic risk. Testing of genomic variants can identify people who are susceptible to melanoma despite not having a traditional phenotypic risk profile.

Novel pleiotropic risk loci for melanoma and nevus density implicate multiple biological pathways

The total number of acquired melanocytic nevi on the skin is strongly correlated with melanoma risk. Here we report a meta-analysis of 11 nevus GWAS from Australia, Netherlands, UK, and USA comprising 52,506 individuals. We confirm known loci including MTAP, PLA2G6, and IRF4, and detect novel SNPs in KITLG and a region of 9q32. In a bivariate analysis combining the nevus results with a recent melanoma GWAS meta-analysis (12,874 cases, 23,203 controls), SNPs near GPRC5A, CYP1B1, PPARGC1B, HDAC4, FAM208B, DOCK8, and SYNE2 reached global significance, and other loci, including MIR146A and OBFC1, reached a suggestive level. Overall, we conclude that most nevus genes affect melanoma risk (KITLG an exception), while many melanoma risk loci do not alter nevus count. For example, variants in TERC and OBFC1 affect both traits, but other telomere length maintenance genes seem to affect melanoma risk only. Our findings implicate multiple pathways in nevogenesis.

Cell-type-specific eQTL of primary melanocytes facilitates identification of melanoma susceptibility genes

Most expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) studies to date have been performed in heterogeneous tissues as opposed to specific cell types. To better understand the cell-type-specific regulatory landscape of human melanocytes, which give rise to melanoma but account for <5% of typical human skin biopsies, we performed an eQTL analysis in primary melanocyte cultures from 106 newborn males. We identified 597,335 cis-eQTL SNPs prior to linkage disequilibrium (LD) pruning and 4997 eGenes (FDR < 0.05). Melanocyte eQTLs differed considerably from those identified in the 44 GTEx tissue types, including skin. Over a third of melanocyte eGenes, including key genes in melanin synthesis pathways, were unique to melanocytes compared to those of GTEx skin tissues or TCGA melanomas. The melanocyte data set also identified trans-eQTLs, including those connecting a pigmentation-associated functional SNP with four genes, likely through cis-regulation of IRF4 Melanocyte eQTLs are enriched in cis-regulatory signatures found in melanocytes as well as in melanoma-associated variants identified through genome-wide association studies. Melanocyte eQTLs also colocalized with melanoma GWAS variants in five known loci. Finally, a transcriptome-wide association study using melanocyte eQTLs uncovered four novel susceptibility loci, where imputed expression levels of five genes (ZFP90, HEBP1, MSC, CBWD1, and RP11-383H13.1) were associated with melanoma at genome-wide significant P-values. Our data highlight the utility of lineage-specific eQTL resources for annotating GWAS findings, and present a robust database for genomic research of melanoma risk and melanocyte biology.

Abstract 5372: The mutational landscape of primary cutaneous melanoma

Large-scale melanoma genome profiling studies to date have mainly focused on metastatic tumors. To better understand the link between genomic changes and outcome, primary tumors must be studied.

We have designed a comprehensive targeted genomic panel to study genetic alterations in melanoma, and applied this to a large collection of 536 primary melanomas, part of the Leeds Melanoma Cohort. Patients were invited to participate 3 months after diagnosis of primary melanoma. 1% received targeted therapies or immunotherapy and thus, our analysis is reflective of the landscape of primary melanoma in the treatment naïve setting. The sequencing panel allowed us to study genetic alterations in over 500 genes, including more than 150 genes frequently mutated in melanoma and an additional 250 genes linked to other solid tumor types. Both tumor and germline DNA were analyzed for most samples.

The average somatic mutation rates we observed was 15 mutations/MB (0 to 236 mutations/MB), while the nonsynonymous mutational load ranged from 0 to 57 mutations/MB (average 4 mutations/MB). We found that a high mutational burden (highest 20%, &gt;45 nonsynonymous mutations/Mb) positively correlated with better survival (Cox proportional hazards model with age, sex and AJCC stage as additional covariates). Among the top recurrently mutated genes were well established melanoma driver genes such as BRAF (44%), NRAS (28%), NF1 (10%), CDKN2A (15%), TP53 (11%) and ARID2 (8%). We also found hotspot mutations in less well documented melanoma genes, including RQCD1 p.P131L (4.5%).

Altogether, our preliminary data shows a strong correlation between survival and high mutational load in primary melanomas. Our data also suggests a similar landscape of driver mutations in primary and metastatic melanoma, with some variants/genes possibly reflecting the differences in disease stage.

We will further investigate the mutational landscape in our cohort of primary melanomas, including analyses of gene co-occurrence and mutual exclusivity. Additionally, we will use extensive clinical parameters and transcriptomics to examine the possibility of predicting survival and other clinically relevant parameters in our cohort based on patient mutational profiles.

Citation Format: Sofia Y. Chen, Rashid Mamunur, Jon Laye, D. Timothy Bishop, Julia A. Newton-Bishop, David J. Adams. The mutational landscape of primary cutaneous melanoma [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2018; 2018 Apr 14-18; Chicago, IL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2018;78(13 Suppl):Abstract nr 5372.

β-Catenin-mediated immune evasion pathway frequently operates in primary cutaneous melanomas

Immunotherapy prolongs survival in only a subset of melanoma patients, highlighting the need to better understand the driver tumor microenvironment. We conducted bioinformatic analyses of 703 transcriptomes to probe the immune landscape of primary cutaneous melanomas in a population-ascertained cohort. We identified and validated 6 immunologically distinct subgroups, with the largest having the lowest immune scores and the poorest survival. This poor-prognosis subgroup exhibited expression profiles consistent with β-catenin-mediated failure to recruit CD141+ DCs. A second subgroup displayed an equally bad prognosis when histopathological factors were adjusted for, while 4 others maintained comparable survival profiles. The 6 subgroups were replicated in The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) melanomas, where β-catenin signaling was also associated with low immune scores predominantly related to hypomethylation. The survival benefit of high immune scores was strongest in patients with double-WT tumors for BRAF and NRAS, less strong in BRAF-V600 mutants, and absent in NRAS (codons 12, 13, 61) mutants. In summary, we report evidence for a β-catenin-mediated immune evasion in 42% of melanoma primaries overall and in 73% of those with the worst outcome. We further report evidence for an interaction between oncogenic mutations and host response to melanoma, suggesting that patient stratification will improve immunotherapeutic outcomes.

Publisher correction: Functional characterization of a multi-cancer risk locus on chr5p15.33 reveals regulation of TERT by ZNF148

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/ncomms15034.

Interaction between polymorphisms in aspirin metabolic pathways, regular aspirin use and colorectal cancer risk: A case-control study in unselected white European populations

Regular aspirin use is associated with reduced risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). Variation in aspirin's chemoprevention efficacy has been attributed to the presence of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). We conducted a meta-analysis using two large population-based case-control datasets, the UK-Leeds Colorectal Cancer Study Group and the NIH-Colon Cancer Family Registry, having a combined total of 3325 cases and 2262 controls. The aim was to assess 42 candidate SNPs in 15 genes whose association with colorectal cancer risk was putatively modified by aspirin use, in the literature. Log odds ratios (ORs) and standard errors were estimated for each dataset separately using logistic regression adjusting for age, sex and study site, and dataset-specific results were combined using random effects meta-analysis. Meta-analysis showed association between SNPs rs6983267, rs11694911 and rs2302615 with CRC risk reduction (All P<0.05). Association for SNP rs6983267 in the CCAT2 gene only was noteworthy after multiple test correction (P = 0.001). Site-specific analysis showed association between SNPs rs1799853 and rs2302615 with reduced colon cancer risk only (P = 0.01 and P = 0.004, respectively), however neither reached significance threshold following multiple test correction. Meta-analysis of SNPs rs2070959 and rs1105879 in UGT1A6 gene showed interaction between aspirin use and CRC risk (Pinteraction = 0.01 and 0.02, respectively); stratification by aspirin use showed an association for decreased CRC risk for aspirin users having a wild-type genotype (rs2070959 OR = 0.77, 95% CI = 0.68-0.86; rs1105879 OR = 0.77 95% CI = 0.69-0.86) compared to variant allele cariers. The direction of the interaction however is in contrast to that published in studies on colorectal adenomas. Both SNPs showed potential site-specific interaction with aspirin use and colon cancer risk only (Pinteraction = 0.006 and 0.008, respectively), with the direction of association similar to that observed for CRC. Additionally, they showed interaction between any non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (including aspirin) use and CRC risk (Pinteraction = 0.01 for both). All gene x environment (GxE) interactions however were not significant after multiple test correction. Candidate gene investigation indicated no evidence of GxE interaction between genetic variants in genes involved in aspirin pathways, regular aspirin use and colorectal cancer risk.

Rare Variant, Gene-Based Association Study of Hereditary Melanoma Using Whole-Exome Sequencing

Background

Extraordinary progress has been made in our understanding of common variants in many diseases, including melanoma. Because the contribution of rare coding variants is not as well characterized, we performed an exome-wide, gene-based association study of familial cutaneous melanoma (CM) and ocular melanoma (OM).

Methods

Using 11 990 jointly processed individual DNA samples, whole-exome sequencing was performed, followed by large-scale joint variant calling using GATK (Genome Analysis ToolKit). PLINK/SEQ was used for statistical analysis of genetic variation. Four models were used to estimate the association among different types of variants. In vitro functional validation was performed using three human melanoma cell lines in 2D and 3D proliferation assays. In vivo tumor growth was assessed using xenografts of human melanoma A375 melanoma cells in nude mice (eight mice per group). All statistical tests were two-sided.

Results

Strong signals were detected for CDKN2A (Pmin = 6.16 × 10-8) in the CM cohort (n = 273) and BAP1 (Pmin = 3.83 × 10-6) in the OM (n = 99) cohort. Eleven genes that exhibited borderline association (P < 10-4) were independently validated using The Cancer Genome Atlas melanoma cohort (379 CM, 47 OM) and a matched set of 3563 European controls with CDKN2A (P = .009), BAP1 (P = .03), and EBF3 (P = 4.75 × 10-4), a candidate risk locus, all showing evidence of replication. EBF3 was then evaluated using germline data from a set of 132 familial melanoma cases and 4769 controls of UK origin (joint P = 1.37 × 10-5). Somatically, loss of EBF3 expression correlated with progression, poorer outcome, and high MITF tumors. Functionally, induction of EBF3 in melanoma cells reduced cell growth in vitro, retarded tumor formation in vivo, and reduced MITF levels.

Conclusions

The results of this large rare variant germline association study further define the mutational landscape of hereditary melanoma and implicate EBF3 as a possible CM predisposition gene.