Race, Education, and Gender Disparities in Transplantation of Kidneys From Hepatitis C Viremic Donors

BACKGROUND

Transplantation of kidneys from hepatitis C virus (HCV)-viremic donors into HCV-negative patients followed by direct-acting antiviral therapy was an important breakthrough to increase the number of life-saving kidney transplants. Data suggest that these transplants offer several benefits; however, it is unknown whether adoption of this practice has been shared equitably, especially among disadvantaged groups.

METHODS

We evaluated United Network for Organ Sharing data on HCV-seronegative adult deceased-donor kidney transplant recipients from January 1, 2017, to June 12, 2020. We compared recipients of a kidney from an HCV antibody- (Ab-)/nucleic acid test- (NAT-), HCV Ab+/NAT-, and HCV NAT+ donor. The primary covariates were as follows: (1) race/ethnicity; (2) female sex; and (3) highest level of education. Models included variables associated with being offered an HCV NAT+ kidney. We fit mixed-effects multinomial logistic regression models with the center as a random effect to account for patient clustering.

RESULTS

Of 48 255 adult kidney-alone deceased-donor kidney transplant HCV-seronegative recipients, 1641 (3.4%) donors were HCV NAT+-, increasing from 0.3% (January 2017-June 2017) to 6.9% (January 2020-June 2020). In multivariable models, racial/ethnic minorities, women, and those with less education were significantly less likely to receive a kidney from an HCV NAT+ donor relative to an HCV Ab-/NAT- and HCV Ab+/NAT- donor. The disparities were most pronounced among Hispanic and Asian patients with less educational attainment (grade school, high school, or some college/tech school).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite an increase in transplants from HCV NAT+ donors, we found substantial racial/ethnic disparities in transplantation of these kidneys. These data highlight how the benefits of a scientific breakthrough are often made less available to disadvantaged patients.

The uptake of foil from needle and syringe provision services and its role in smoking or snorting heroin among people who inject drugs in Scotland

BACKGROUND

In the UK, legislation was implemented in 2014 allowing needle and syringe provision (NSP) services to offer foil to people who inject drugs (PWID) to encourage smoking rather than injecting. This paper aims to examine the association between foil uptake and smoking or snorting heroin among PWID. This is the first large scale national study to examine foil uptake and smoking or snorting heroin among PWID post legislative change.

METHOD

Data from 1453 PWID interviewed via Scotland's Needle Exchange Surveillance Initiative in 2017-2018 were analysed using multivariate logistic regression.

RESULTS

Overall, 36% of PWID had obtained foil from NSP services in the past six months. The odds of smoking or snorting heroin were higher among those who had obtained foil (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) 3.79 (95% CI 2.98-4.82) p<0.001) compared to those who had not. Smoking or snorting heroin was associated with lower odds of injecting four or more times daily (AOR 0.60 (95% CI 0.40-0.90) p = 0.012) and injecting into the groin or neck (AOR 0.57 (95% CI 0.46-0.71) p<0.001) but increased odds of having had a skin and soft tissue infection (SSTI) (AOR 1.49 (95% CI 1.17-1.89) p = 0.001) and having experienced an overdose (AOR 1.58 (95% CI 1.18-2.10) p = 0.002) both in the past year.

CONCLUSION

The promotion of smoking drugs via foil provision from NSP services may contribute to the package of harm reduction measures for PWID alongside the provision of injecting equipment. We found that those in receipt of foil were more likely to smoke or snort heroin, and that smoking or snorting heroin was associated with a lower likelihood of some risky injecting behaviours, namely frequent injecting and injecting into the groin or neck. But it remains uncertain if the provision of foil can lead to a reduction in health harms, such as SSTI and overdose. Future research is needed to understand PWID motivations for smoking drugs, obtaining foil from NSP services, and its uses particularly among polydrug users.

Cross-validation of transtheoretical model smoking cessation measures in Chicago WIHS women smokers with and at risk for HIV

People with and at risk for HIV have high rates of smoking, increasing their morbidity and mortality. Effective cessation interventions are needed for this group. Transtheoretical model (TTM)-tailored interventions have demonstrated efficacy, but measures need cross-validation in this population. TTM cessation measures were evaluated in women smokers with and at risk for HIV (N = 111) from Chicago Women's Interagency HIV Study (WIHS). Confirmatory factor analyses evaluated measurement models. MANOVAs examined relationships between constructs and stage subgroups. For decisional balance, the two-factor uncorrelated model was best (χ2(20) = 13.96; comparative fit index [CFI], 1.0; root mean square error of approximation [RMSEA] = .00), with good (pros α = .78) and fair (cons α = .55) four-item alphas. The one-factor temptations model (α = .90) showed reasonable fit (χ2(18) = 80.22; CFI = .89; RMSEA = .177). Processes of change subscales had fair to good two-item alphas (α = .49-.77) and fit a 10-factor fully correlated model (χ2(125) = 222.72; CFI = .88; RMSEA = .084). MANOVAs by stage of change replicated expected patterns for the pros, overall temptations, and two process subscales with medium-sized effects (η2 = .06-.18). Contrary to expectations, no differences by stage were found for cons or temptation negative affect subscales. The structures of these TTM measures replicated with good internal and external validity, except for the cons, which needs refinement. Negative affect temptations was structurally sound, but did not vary by stage group potentially reflecting this sample's moderate depression levels and/or their reliance on smoking to deal with negative affect. Results support the use of most TTM measures in research and tailored interventions to increase smoking cessation among women smokers with and at risk for HIV and highlight the importance of managing negative affect in cessation materials targeting this group.

Relation of severe COVID-19 in Scotland to transmission-related factors and risk conditions eligible for shielding support: REACT-SCOT case-control study

BACKGROUND

Clinically vulnerable individuals have been advised to shield themselves during the COVID-19 epidemic. The objectives of this study were to investigate (1) the rate ratio of severe COVID-19 associated with eligibility for the shielding programme in Scotland across the first and second waves of the epidemic and (2) the relation of severe COVID-19 to transmission-related factors in those in shielding and the general population.

METHODS

In a matched case-control design, all 178,578 diagnosed cases of COVID-19 in Scotland from 1 March 2020 to 18 February 2021 were matched for age, sex and primary care practice to 1,744,283 controls from the general population. This dataset (REACT-SCOT) was linked to the list of 212,702 individuals identified as eligible for shielding. Severe COVID-19 was defined as cases that entered critical care or were fatal. Rate ratios were estimated by conditional logistic regression.

RESULTS

With those without risk conditions as reference category, the univariate rate ratio for severe COVID-19 was 3.21 (95% CI 3.01 to 3.41) in those with moderate risk conditions and 6.3 (95% CI 5.8 to 6.8) in those eligible for shielding. The highest rate was in solid organ transplant recipients: rate ratio 13.4 (95% CI 9.6 to 18.8). Risk of severe COVID-19 increased with the number of adults but decreased with the number of school-age children in the household. Severe COVID-19 was strongly associated with recent exposure to hospital (defined as 5 to 14 days before presentation date): rate ratio 12.3 (95% CI 11.5 to 13.2) overall. The population attributable risk fraction for recent exposure to hospital peaked at 50% in May 2020 and again at 65% in December 2020.

CONCLUSIONS

The effectiveness of shielding vulnerable individuals was limited by the inability to control transmission in hospital and from other adults in the household. Mitigating the impact of the epidemic requires control of nosocomial transmission.

Development and Validation of a Model to Predict Long-Term Survival After Liver Transplantation

Patients are prioritized for liver transplantation (LT) under an "urgency-based" system using the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score. This system focuses solely on waitlist mortality, without considerations of posttransplant morbidity, mortality, and health care use. We sought to develop and internally validate a continuous posttransplant risk score during 5-year and 10-year time horizons. This retrospective cohort study used national registry data of adult deceased donor LT (DDLT) recipients with ≥90 days of pretransplant waiting time from February 27, 2002 to December 31, 2018. We fit Cox regression models at 5 and 10 years to estimate beta coefficients for a risk score using manual variable selection and calculated the absolute predicted survival time. Among 21,103 adult DDLT recipients, 11 variables were selected for the final model. The area under the curves at 5 and 10 years were 0.63 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.60-0.66) and 0.67 (95% CI, 0.64-0.70), respectively. The group with the highest ("best") scores had 5-year and 10-year survivals of 89.4% and 85.4%, respectively, compared with 45.9% and 22.2% for those with the lowest ("worst") scores. Our score was significantly better at predicting long-term survival compared with the existing scores. We developed and validated a risk score using nearly 17 years of data to prioritize patients with end-stage liver disease based on projected posttransplant survival. This score can serve as the building block by which the transplant field can change the entire approach to prioritizing patients to an approach that is based on considerations of maximizing benefits (ie, survival benefit-based allocation) rather than simply waitlist mortality.

Survival inequity in vulnerable populations with early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma: a United States safety-net collaborative analysis

BACKGROUND

Access to health insurance and curative interventions [surgery/liver-directed-therapy (LDT)] affects survival for early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The aim of this multi-institutional study of high-volume safety-net hospitals (SNHs) and their tertiary-academic-centers (AC) was to identify the impact of type/lack of insurance on survival disparities across hospitals, particularly SNHs whose mission is to minimize insurance related access-to-care barriers for vulnerable populations.

METHODS

Early-stage HCC patients (2012-2014) from the US Safety-Net Collaborative were propensity-score matched by treatment at SNH/AC. Overall survival (OS) was the primary outcome. Multivariable Cox proportional-hazard analysis was performed accounting for sociodemographic/clinical parameters.

RESULTS

Among 925 patients, those with no insurance (NI) had decreased curative surgery, compared to those with government insurance (GI) and private insurance [PI, (PI-SNH:60.5% vs. GI-SNH:33.1% vs. NI-SNH:13.6%, p < 0.001)], and decreased median OS (PI-SNH:32.1 vs. GI-SNH:22.8 vs. NI-SNH:9.4 months, p = 0.002). On multivariable regression controlling for sociodemographic/clinical parameters, NI-SNH (HR:2.5, 95% CI:1.3-4.9, p = 0.007) was the only insurance type/hospital system combination with significantly worse OS.

CONCLUSION

NI-SNH patients received less curative treatment than other insurance/hospitals types suggesting that treatment barriers, beyond access-to-care, need to be identified and addressed to achieve survival equity in early-stage HCC for vulnerable populations (NI-SNH).

Predicting survival after liver transplantation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma using the LiTES-HCC score

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Liver transplant priority in the US and Europe follows the 'sickest-first' principle. However, for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), priority is based on binary tumor criteria to expedite transplant for patients with 'acceptable' post-transplant outcomes. Newer risk scores developed to overcome limitations of these binary criteria are insufficient to be used for waitlist priority as they focus solely on HCC-related pre-transplant variables. We sought to develop a risk score to predict post-transplant survival for patients using HCC- and non-HCC-related variables.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study using national registry data on adult deceased-donor liver transplant (DDLT) recipients with HCC from 2/27/02-12/31/18. We fit Cox regression models focused on 5- and 10-year survival to estimate beta coefficients for a risk score using manual variable selection. We then calculated absolute predicted survival time and compared it to available risk scores.

RESULTS

Among 6,502 adult DDLT recipients with HCC, 11 variables were selected in the final model. The AUCs at 5- and 10-years were: 0.62, 95% CI 0.57-0.67 and 0.65, 95% CI 0.58-0.72, which was not statistically significantly different to the Metroticket and HALT-HCC scores. The LiTES-HCC score was able to discriminate patients based on post-transplant survival among those meeting Milan and UCSF criteria.

CONCLUSION

We developed and validated a risk score to predict post-transplant survival for patients with HCC. By including HCC- and non-HCC-related variables (e.g., age, chronic kidney disease), this score could allow transplant professionals to prioritize patients with HCC in terms of predicted survival. In the future, this score could be integrated into survival benefit-based models to lead to meaningful improvements in life-years at the population level.

LAY SUMMARY

We created a risk score to predict how long patients with liver cancer will live if they get a liver transplant. In the future, this could be used to decide which waitlisted patients should get the next transplant.

Living-Related Donor Kidney Transplant in a Patient With Single Ventricle and Fontan Circulation

The hemodynamic profile of the Fontan circulation presents challenges that raise questions about candidacy for organ transplantation. We report a case of a 24-year-old male with double-inlet right ventricle and aortic atresia, who suffered bilateral renal cortical necrosis due to neonatal cardiovascular shock, received a live-donor kidney transplant from his mother at age 17, and has diminished yet stable renal function seven years posttransplant.

Trends in Discharge Prescription of Digoxin After Norwood Operation: An Analysis of Data from the Pediatric Health Information System (PHIS) Database

Quality improvement efforts have focused on reducing interstage mortality for infants with hypoplastic left heart syndrome (HLHS). In 1/2016, two publications reported that use of digoxin was associated with reduced interstage mortality. The degree to which these findings have affected real world practice has not been evaluated. The discharge medications of neonates with HLHS undergoing Norwood operation between 1/2007 and 12/2018 at Pediatric Health Information Systems Database hospitals were studied. Mixed effects models were calculated to evaluate the hypothesis that the likelihood of digoxin prescription increased after 1/2016, adjusting for measurable confounders with furosemide and aspirin prescription measured as falsification tests. Interhospital practice variation was measured using the median odds ratio. Over the study period, 6091 subjects from 45 hospitals were included. After adjusting for measurable covariates, discharge after 1/2016 was associated with increased odds of receiving digoxin (OR 3.9, p < 0.001). No association was seen between date of discharge and furosemide (p = 0.26) or aspirin (p = 0.12). Prior to 1/2016, the likelihood of receiving digoxin was decreasing (OR 0.9 per year, p < 0.001), while after 1/2016 the rate has increased (OR 1.4 per year, p < 0.001). However, there remains significant interhospital variation in the likelihood of receiving digoxin even after adjusting for known confounders (median odds ratio = 3.5, p < 0.0001). Following publication of studies describing an association between digoxin and improved interstage survival, the likelihood of receiving digoxin at discharge increased without similar changes for furosemide or aspirin. Despite concerted efforts to standardize interstage care, interhospital variation in pharmacotherapy in this vulnerable population persists.

Population-level effectiveness of a national HIV preexposure prophylaxis programme in MSM

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to evaluate Scotland's national HIV preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) programme in relation to PrEP uptake and associated population-level impact on HIV incidence among MSM.

DESIGN

A retrospective cohort study within real-world implementation.

METHODS

Comparison of HIV diagnoses from national surveillance data and HIV incidence within a retrospective cohort of HIV-negative MSM attending sexual health clinics from the National Sexual Health information system between the 2-year periods pre(July 2015-June 2017) and post(July 2017-June 2019) introduction of PrEP.

RESULTS

Of 16 723 MSM attending sexual health services in the PrEP period, 3256 (19.5%) were prescribed PrEP. Between pre-PrEP and PrEP periods, new HIV diagnoses among MSM declined from 229 to 184, respectively [relative risk reduction (RRR): 19.7%, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 2.5-33.8]; diagnosed recently acquired infections declined from an estimated 73 to 47, respectively (35.6%, 95% CI 7.1-55.4). Among MSM attending sexual health clinics, HIV incidence per 1000 person-years declined from 5.13 (95% CI 3.90-6.64) pre-PrEP to 3.25 (95% CI 2.30-4.47) in the PrEP period (adjusted IRR 0.57, 95% CI 0.37-0.87). Compared with the pre-PrEP period, incidence of HIV was lower in the PrEP period for those prescribed PrEP (aIRR 0.25, 95% CI 0.09-0.70) and for those not prescribed PrEP (aIRR 0.68, 95% CI 0.43-1.05).

CONCLUSION

We demonstrate national population-level impact of PrEP for the first time in a real-world setting. HIV incidence reduced in MSM who had been prescribed PrEP and, to a lesser extent, in those who had not. Promotion of the benefits of PrEP needs to extend to MSM who do not access sexual health clinics.

County Differences in Liver Mortality in the United States: Impact of Sociodemographics, Disease Risk Factors, and Access to Care

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Data have demonstrated state-wide variability in mortality rates from liver disease (cirrhosis + hepatocellular carcinoma), but data are lacking at the local level (eg, county) to identify factors associated with variability in liver disease-related mortality and hotspots of liver disease mortality.

METHODS

We used Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research data from 2009 to 2018 to calculate county-level, age-adjusted liver disease-related death rates. We fit multivariable linear regression models to adjust for county-level covariates related to demographics (ie, race and ethnicity), medical comorbidities (eg, obesity), access to care (eg, uninsured rate), and geographic (eg, distance to closest liver transplant center) variables. We used optimized hotspot analysis to identify clusters of liver disease mortality hotspots based on the final multivariable models.

RESULTS

In multivariable models, 61% of the variability in among-county mortality was explained by county-level race/ethnicity, poverty, uninsured rates, distance to the closest transplant center, and local rates of obesity, diabetes, and alcohol use. Despite adjustment, significant within-state variability in county-level mortality rates was found. Of counties in the top fifth percentile (ie, highest mortality) of fully adjusted mortality, 60% were located in 3 states: Oklahoma, Texas, and New Mexico. Adjusted mortality rates were highly spatially correlated, representing 5 clusters: South Florida; Appalachia and the eastern part of the Midwest; Texas and Oklahoma; New Mexico, Arizona, California, and southern Oregon; and parts of Washington and Montana.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data demonstrate significant intrastate differences in liver disease-related mortality, with more than 60% of the variability explained by patient demographics, clinical risk factors for liver disease, and access to specialty liver care.

Relation of severe COVID-19 to polypharmacy and prescribing of psychotropic drugs: the REACT-SCOT case-control study

BACKGROUND

The objective of this study was to investigate the relation of severe COVID-19 to prior drug prescribing.

METHODS

Severe cases were defined by entry to critical care or fatal outcome. For this matched case-control study (REACT-SCOT), all 4251 cases of severe COVID-19 in Scotland since the start of the epidemic were matched for age, sex and primary care practice to 36,738 controls from the population register. Records were linked to hospital discharges since June 2015 and dispensed prescriptions issued in primary care during the last 240 days.

RESULTS

Severe COVID-19 was strongly associated with the number of non-cardiovascular drug classes dispensed. This association was strongest in those not resident in a care home, in whom the rate ratio (95% CI) associated with dispensing of 12 or more drug classes versus none was 10.8 (8.8, 13.3), and in those without any of the conditions designated as conferring increased risk of COVID-19. Of 17 drug classes postulated at the start of the epidemic to be "medications compromising COVID", all were associated with increased risk of severe COVID-19 and these associations were present in those without any of the designated risk conditions. The fraction of cases in the population attributable to exposure to these drug classes was 38%. The largest effect was for antipsychotic agents: rate ratio 4.18 (3.42, 5.11). Other drug classes with large effects included proton pump inhibitors (rate ratio 2.20 (1.72, 2.83) for = 2 defined daily doses/day), opioids (3.66 (2.68, 5.01) for = 50 mg morphine equivalent/day) and gabapentinoids. These associations persisted after adjusting for covariates and were stronger with recent than with non-recent exposure.

CONCLUSIONS

Severe COVID-19 is associated with polypharmacy and with drugs that cause sedation, respiratory depression, or dyskinesia; have anticholinergic effects; or affect the gastrointestinal system. These associations are not easily explained by co-morbidity. Measures to reduce the burden of mortality and morbidity from COVID-19 should include reinforcing existing guidance on reducing overprescribing of these drug classes and limiting inappropriate polypharmacy.

REGISTRATION

ENCEPP number EUPAS35558.

Should Clinical Guidelines Incorporate Cost Pathways for Persons With Financial Hardship?

The American Diabetes Association 2020 Standards of Care for the treatment of hyperglycemia in type 2 diabetes includes a treatment pathway when "cost is a major issue." This pathway recommends use of 2 generic drug classes, thereby codifying differential treatment for those with financial hardship. This article explores 4 implications of incorporating the cost pathway into clinical recommendations: (1) the presence of a cost pathway might create the appearance of an evidence-based quality difference through activation of implicit bias; (2) screening for financial hardship to guide therapy has potential harms for patients; (3) concern that financial hardship warrants differing care might impact overall quality of care and patient-clinician relationships; and (4) applying the guidelines when caring for patients with financial hardship might demoralize clinicians.

Risks of and risk factors for COVID-19 disease in people with diabetes: a cohort study of the total population of Scotland

BACKGROUND

We aimed to ascertain the cumulative risk of fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 in people with diabetes and compare it with that of people without diabetes, and to investigate risk factors for and build a cross-validated predictive model of fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 among people with diabetes.

METHODS

In this cohort study, we captured the data encompassing the first wave of the pandemic in Scotland, from March 1, 2020, when the first case was identified, to July 31, 2020, when infection rates had dropped sufficiently that shielding measures were officially terminated. The participants were the total population of Scotland, including all people with diabetes who were alive 3 weeks before the start of the pandemic in Scotland (estimated Feb 7, 2020). We ascertained how many people developed fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 in this period from the Electronic Communication of Surveillance in Scotland database (on virology), the RAPID database of daily hospitalisations, the Scottish Morbidity Records-01 of hospital discharges, the National Records of Scotland death registrations data, and the Scottish Intensive Care Society and Audit Group database (on critical care). Among people with fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19, diabetes status was ascertained by linkage to the national diabetes register, Scottish Care Information Diabetes. We compared the cumulative incidence of fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 in people with and without diabetes using logistic regression. For people with diabetes, we obtained data on potential risk factors for fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 from the national diabetes register and other linked health administrative databases. We tested the association of these factors with fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 in people with diabetes, and constructed a prediction model using stepwise regression and 20-fold cross-validation.

FINDINGS

Of the total Scottish population on March 1, 2020 (n=5 463 300), the population with diabetes was 319 349 (5·8%), 1082 (0·3%) of whom developed fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 by July 31, 2020, of whom 972 (89·8%) were aged 60 years or older. In the population without diabetes, 4081 (0·1%) of 5 143 951 people developed fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19. As of July 31, the overall odds ratio (OR) for diabetes, adjusted for age and sex, was 1·395 (95% CI 1·304-1·494; p<0·0001, compared with the risk in those without diabetes. The OR was 2·396 (1·815-3·163; p<0·0001) in type 1 diabetes and 1·369 (1·276-1·468; p<0·0001) in type 2 diabetes. Among people with diabetes, adjusted for age, sex, and diabetes duration and type, those who developed fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 were more likely to be male, live in residential care or a more deprived area, have a COVID-19 risk condition, retinopathy, reduced renal function, or worse glycaemic control, have had a diabetic ketoacidosis or hypoglycaemia hospitalisation in the past 5 years, be on more anti-diabetic and other medication (all p<0·0001), and have been a smoker (p=0·0011). The cross-validated predictive model of fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 in people with diabetes had a C-statistic of 0·85 (0·83-0·86).

INTERPRETATION

Overall risks of fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 were substantially elevated in those with type 1 and type 2 diabetes compared with the background population. The risk of fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19, and therefore the need for special protective measures, varies widely among those with diabetes but can be predicted reasonably well using previous clinical history.

FUNDING

None.

Sleep deficiency and breast cancer risk among postmenopausal women in the California teachers study (CTS)

PURPOSE

There is provocative, yet inconsistent, evidence that sleep deficiency may influence the development of breast cancer. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the risk of breast cancer associated with sleep deficiency among postmenopausal women in the California Teachers Study (CTS).

METHODS

We conducted a case-control study of 2,856 invasive breast cancer cases and 38,649 cancer-free controls, nested within the CTS. Self-administered questionnaires were used to ascertain several components of sleep deficiency, including quality, latency, duration, disturbance and use of sleep medications. Additionally, a Global Sleep Index (GSI) was created by summing the individual sleep components and categorizing into quartiles. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to estimate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (OR, 95% CI).

RESULTS

Increased breast cancer risks were associated with sleep deficiency. With the exception of duration, linear increases in risk were associated with all the other individual components of sleep deficiency (p-trend ≤ 0.002). The OR for the highest GSI quartile vs. lowest was 1.24, 95% CI 1.12-1.38; p-trend < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Sleep deficiency may be a risk factor for breast cancer. Additional prospective studies and those aimed at elucidating underlying mechanism are warranted.

Population impact of direct-acting antiviral treatment on new presentations of hepatitis C-related decompensated cirrhosis: a national record-linkage study

OBJECTIVE

Population-based studies demonstrating the clinical impact of interferon-free direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapies are lacking. We examined the impact of the introduction of DAAs on HCV-related decompensated cirrhosis (DC) through analysis of population-based data from Scotland.

DESIGN

Through analysis of national surveillance data (involving linkage of HCV diagnosis and clinical databases to hospital and deaths registers), we determined i) the scale-up in the number of patients treated and achieving a sustained viral response (SVR), and ii) the change in the trend of new presentations with HCV-related DC, with the introduction of DAAs.

RESULTS

Approximately 11 000 patients had been treated in Scotland over the 8-year period 2010/11 to 2017/18. The scale-up in the number of patients achieving SVR between the pre-DAA and DAA eras was 2.3-fold overall and 5.9-fold among those with compensated cirrhosis (the group at immediate risk of developing DC). In the pre-DAA era, the annual number of HCV-related DC presentations increased 4.6-fold between 2000 (30) and 2014 (142). In the DAA era, presentations decreased by 51% to 69 in 2018 (and by 67% among those with chronic infection at presentation), representing a significant change in trend (rate ratio 0.88, 95% CI 0.85 to 0.90). With the introduction of DAAs, an estimated 330 DC cases had been averted during 2015-18.

CONCLUSIONS

National scale-up in interferon-free DAA treatment is associated with the rapid downturn in presentations of HCV-related DC at the population-level. Major progress in averting HCV-related DC in the short-term is feasible, and thus other countries should strive to achieve the same.

Rapid improvement in organ procurement organization performance: Potential for change and impact of new leadership

Recently proposed rulemaking from Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services would change how organ procurement organizations (OPOs) are evaluated. The proposals include using national inpatient death data to define a standardized denominator to calculate comparable donation rates among OPOs. Based on these objective metrics, OPOs not performing at a prespecified threshold will be required to rapidly improve performance to avoid decertification. We sought to determine whether rapid OPO improvement was possible based on objective donation metrics, and whether leadership change was associated with rapid improvement. We evaluated United Network for Organ Sharing and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data from 2011 to 2018, and measured donation rates using CDC data on inpatient deaths from causes consistent with donation, based on the location of deaths. During the two 4-year cycles, we found that an OPO's ranking relative to other OPOs was fairly static, with more than 90% of the OPOs at risk of flagging at the end of each 4-year cycle (2014, 2018) being in the bottom 75% of OPOs in the preceding 3 years. In multivariable logistic regression models, leadership changes were only statistically significantly associated with an improvement in OPO rankings during the 2011-2014 cycle. These data demonstrate that rapid improvements in OPO performance are uncommon, and while leadership changes increase the odds of rapid improvement, they do not guarantee improvement.

Assessing keloid recurrence following surgical excision and radiation

Keloids are a fibroproliferative disorder that can result from a cutaneous injury to the reticular dermis. Recurrence rates as high as 100% have been reported following surgical excision alone. Consequently, a variety of post-surgical techniques have been employed to prevent keloid recurrence, including the use of radiation. Although numerous studies have shown post-excisional X-rays, electron beam, lasers and brachytherapy can reduce the rate of keloid recurrence, numerous inconsistencies, including a wide range of definitions for keloid recurrence, make it difficult to compare study outcomes. The review aims to examine the various means for defining keloid recurrence in clinical trials involving the use of radiation therapy. Searches of the Cochrane Library and PubMed were performed to identify the available information for post-surgical keloid recurrence following radiation therapy. Each identified study was reviewed for patient follow-up and criteria used to define keloid recurrence. The search results included clinical studies with external beam radiation, brachytherapy and superficial radiation therapy. Many studies did not include a definition of keloid recurrence, or defined recurrence only as the return of scar tissue. Other studies defined keloid recurrence based on patient self-assessment questionnaires, symptoms and scar elevation and changes in Kyoto Scar Scale, Japan Scar Workshop Scale and Vancouver Scar Scale scores. The results of this review indicate keloidectomy followed by radiation therapy provide satisfactory recurrence rates; however, clinical studies evaluating these treatments do not describe treatment outcomes or use different definitions of keloid recurrence. Consequently, recurrence rates vary widely, making comparisons across studies difficult. Keloid recurrence should be clearly defined using both objective and subjective measures.

Risk of hospital admission with coronavirus disease 2019 in healthcare workers and their households: nationwide linkage cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To assess the risk of hospital admission for coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) among patient facing and non-patient facing healthcare workers and their household members.

DESIGN

Nationwide linkage cohort study.

SETTING

Scotland, UK, 1 March to 6 June 2020.

PARTICIPANTS

Healthcare workers aged 18-65 years, their households, and other members of the general population.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Admission to hospital with covid-19.

RESULTS

The cohort comprised 158 445 healthcare workers, most of them (90 733; 57.3%) being patient facing, and 229 905 household members. Of all hospital admissions for covid-19 in the working age population (18-65 year olds), 17.2% (360/2097) were in healthcare workers or their households. After adjustment for age, sex, ethnicity, socioeconomic deprivation, and comorbidity, the risk of admission due to covid-19 in non-patient facing healthcare workers and their households was similar to the risk in the general population (hazard ratio 0.81 (95% confidence interval 0.52 to 1.26) and 0.86 (0.49 to 1.51), respectively). In models adjusting for the same covariates, however, patient facing healthcare workers, compared with non-patient facing healthcare workers, were at higher risk (hazard ratio 3.30, 2.13 to 5.13), as were household members of patient facing healthcare workers (1.79, 1.10 to 2.91). After sub-division of patient facing healthcare workers into those who worked in "front door," intensive care, and non-intensive care aerosol generating settings and other, those in front door roles were at higher risk (hazard ratio 2.09, 1.49 to 2.94). For most patient facing healthcare workers and their households, the estimated absolute risk of hospital admission with covid-19 was less than 0.5%, but it was 1% and above in older men with comorbidity.

CONCLUSIONS

Healthcare workers and their households contributed a sixth of covid-19 cases admitted to hospital. Although the absolute risk of admission was low overall, patient facing healthcare workers and their household members had threefold and twofold increased risks of admission with covid-19.

Rapid Epidemiological Analysis of Comorbidities and Treatments as risk factors for COVID-19 in Scotland (REACT-SCOT): A population-based case-control study

BACKGROUND

The objectives of this study were to identify risk factors for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and to lay the basis for risk stratification based on demographic data and health records.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

The design was a matched case-control study. Severe COVID-19 was defined as either a positive nucleic acid test for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in the national database followed by entry to a critical care unit or death within 28 days or a death certificate with COVID-19 as underlying cause. Up to 10 controls per case matched for sex, age, and primary care practice were selected from the national population register. For this analysis-based on ascertainment of positive test results up to 6 June 2020, entry to critical care up to 14 June 2020, and deaths registered up to 14 June 2020-there were 36,948 controls and 4,272 cases, of which 1,894 (44%) were care home residents. All diagnostic codes from the past 5 years of hospitalisation records and all drug codes from prescriptions dispensed during the past 240 days were extracted. Rate ratios for severe COVID-19 were estimated by conditional logistic regression. In a logistic regression using the age-sex distribution of the national population, the odds ratios for severe disease were 2.87 for a 10-year increase in age and 1.63 for male sex. In the case-control analysis, the strongest risk factor was residence in a care home, with rate ratio 21.4 (95% CI 19.1-23.9, p = 8 × 10-644). Univariate rate ratios for conditions listed by public health agencies as conferring high risk were 2.75 (95% CI 1.96-3.88, p = 6 × 10-9) for type 1 diabetes, 1.60 (95% CI 1.48-1.74, p = 8 × 10-30) for type 2 diabetes, 1.49 (95% CI 1.37-1.61, p = 3 × 10-21) for ischemic heart disease, 2.23 (95% CI 2.08-2.39, p = 4 × 10-109) for other heart disease, 1.96 (95% CI 1.83-2.10, p = 2 × 10-78) for chronic lower respiratory tract disease, 4.06 (95% CI 3.15-5.23, p = 3 × 10-27) for chronic kidney disease, 5.4 (95% CI 4.9-5.8, p = 1 × 10-354) for neurological disease, 3.61 (95% CI 2.60-5.00, p = 2 × 10-14) for chronic liver disease, and 2.66 (95% CI 1.86-3.79, p = 7 × 10-8) for immune deficiency or suppression. Seventy-eight percent of cases and 52% of controls had at least one listed condition (51% of cases and 11% of controls under age 40). Severe disease was associated with encashment of at least one prescription in the past 9 months and with at least one hospital admission in the past 5 years (rate ratios 3.10 [95% CI 2.59-3.71] and 2.75 [95% CI 2.53-2.99], respectively) even after adjusting for the listed conditions. In those without listed conditions, significant associations with severe disease were seen across many hospital diagnoses and drug categories. Age and sex provided 2.58 bits of information for discrimination. A model based on demographic variables, listed conditions, hospital diagnoses, and prescriptions provided an additional 1.07 bits (C-statistic 0.804). A limitation of this study is that records from primary care were not available.

CONCLUSIONS

We have shown that, along with older age and male sex, severe COVID-19 is strongly associated with past medical history across all age groups. Many comorbidities beyond the risk conditions designated by public health agencies contribute to this. A risk classifier that uses all the information available in health records, rather than only a limited set of conditions, will more accurately discriminate between low-risk and high-risk individuals who may require shielding until the epidemic is over.

Genome-Wide Association Study for Alcohol-Related Cirrhosis Identifies Risk Loci in MARC1 and HNRNPUL1

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Little is known about genetic factors that affect development of alcohol-related cirrhosis. We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of samples from the United Kingdom Biobank (UKB) to identify polymorphisms associated with risk of alcohol-related liver disease.

METHODS

We performed a GWAS of 35,839 participants in the UKB with high intake of alcohol against markers of hepatic fibrosis (FIB-4, APRI, and Forns index scores) and hepatocellular injury (levels of aminotransferases). Loci identified in the discovery analysis were tested for their association with alcohol-related cirrhosis in 3 separate European cohorts (phase 1 validation cohort; n=2545). Variants associated with alcohol-related cirrhosis in the validation at a false discovery rate of less than 20% were then directly genotyped in 2 additional European validation cohorts (phase 2 validation, n=2068).

RESULTS

In the GWAS of the discovery cohort, we identified 50 independent risk loci with genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10-8). Nine of these loci were significantly associated with alcohol-related cirrhosis in the phase 1 validation cohort; 6 of these 9 loci were significantly associated with alcohol-related cirrhosis in phase 2 validation cohort, at a false discovery rate below 5%. The loci included variants in the mitochondrial amidoxime reducing component 1 gene (MARC1) and the heterogeneous nuclear ribonucleoprotein U like 1 gene (HNRNPUL1). After we adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, and type-2 diabetes in the phase 2 validation cohort, the minor A allele of MARC1:rs2642438 was associated with reduced risk of alcohol-related cirrhosis (adjusted odds ratio, 0.76; P=.0027); conversely, the minor C allele of HNRNPUL1:rs15052 was associated with an increased risk of alcohol-related cirrhosis (adjusted odds ratio, 1.30; P=.020).

CONCLUSIONS

In a GWAS of samples from the UKB, we identified and validated (in 5 European cohorts) single-nucleotide polymorphisms that affect risk of alcohol-related cirrhosis in opposite directions: the minor A allele in MARC1:rs2642438 decreases risk, whereas the minor C allele in HNRNPUL1:rs15052 increases risk.