Functional and Phylogenetic Approaches to Forecasting Species' Responses to Climate Change

Shifts in phenology and distribution in response to both recent and paleontological climate changes vary markedly in both direction and extent among species. These individualistic shifts are inconsistent with common forecasting techniques based on environmental rather than biological niches. What biological details could enhance forecasts? Organismal characteristics such as thermal and hydric limits, seasonal timing and duration of the life cycle, ecological breadth and dispersal capacity, and fitness and evolutionary potential are expected to influence climate change impacts. We review statistical and mechanistic approaches for incorporating traits in predictive models as well as the potential to use phylogeny as a proxy for traits. Traits generally account for a significant but modest fraction of the variation in phenological and range shifts. Further assembly of phenotypic and phylogenetic data coupled with the development of mechanistic approaches is essential to improved forecasts of the ecological consequences of climate change.

Plants versus animals: do they deal with stress in different ways?

Both plants and animals respond to stress by using adaptations that help them evade, tolerate, or recover from stress. In a synthetic paper A. D. Bradshaw (1972) noted that basic biological differences between plants and animals will have diverse evolutionary consequences, including those influencing how they deal with stress. For instance, Bradshaw argued that animals, because they have relatively well-developed sensory and locomotor capacities, can often use behavior and movement to evade or ameliorate environmental stresses. In contrast, he predicted that plants will have to emphasize increased physiological tolerance or phenotypic plasticity, and also that plants should suffer stronger selection and show more marked differentiation along environmental gradients. Here we briefly review the importance of behavior in mitigating stress, the behavioral capacities of animals and plants, and examples of plant responses that are functionally similar to behaviors of animals. Next, we try to test some of Bradshaw's predictions. Unfortunately, critical data often proved non-comparable: plant and animal biologists often study different stressors (e.g., water versus heat) and measure different traits (photosynthesis versus locomotion). Nevertheless, we were able to test some of Bradshaw's predictions and some related ones of our own. As Bradshaw predicted, the phenology of plants is more responsive to climate shifts than is that of animals and the micro-distributions of non-mobile, intertidal invertebrates ("plant" equivalents) are more sensitive to temperature than are those of mobile invertebrates. However, mortality selection is actually weaker for plants than for animals. We hope that our review not only redraws attention to some fascinating issues Bradshaw raised, but also encourages additional tests of his predictions. Such tests should be informative.

Path analyses of selection

Identifying the targets and causal mechanisms of phenotypic selection in natural populations remains an important challenge for evolutionary biologists. Path analysis is a statistical modeling approach that may aid in meeting this challenge. We describe several types of path model that are relevant to the analysis of selection, and review some recent empirical studies that apply path models to issues in pollination biology, phenotypic integration and selection on morphometric and ontogenetic traits. Path analysis may play two roles in the analysis of selection: first, as an exploratory analysis suggesting possible targets of selection, which are then tested by direct experimentation; and second, as a means of evaluating the relative importance of different causal pathways of selection, once the likely targets of selection have been established.

Host plant adaptation and the evolution of thermal reaction norms

For most ectotherms, increasing the rearing temperature reduces the final (adult) body size, producing a negative slope for the thermal reaction norm. Recent studies show that this relationship may be reversed under conditions of low resource quality, producing a positive slope for the thermal reaction norm. If populations or species differ in the degree of evolutionary adaptation to a resource, how does this differential adaptation alter their thermal reaction norms? We used a common garden experiment with the tobacco hornworm, Manduca sexta, to address this question. We examined the thermal reaction norms for body size of two populations of M. sexta that differ in their evolutionary exposures to an atypical, low-quality resource (devil's claw; Proboscidea louisianica), but have comparable exposures to a typical, high-quality resource (tobacco; Nicotiana tabacum). Both populations had increased mean larval mortalities and development times when reared on devil's claw compared with tobacco, but the magnitudes of these increases differed between populations. Both populations had similar, negatively sloped thermal reaction norms on the typical, high-quality resource (tobacco), but had divergent, non-negative thermal reaction norms on the atypical, low-quality resource (devil's claw): the population with the longer evolutionary history of exposure to the atypical resource exhibited a flat (rather than positive) reaction norm. These results suggest that population differences in host plant adaptation can predictably influence the slopes of thermal reaction norms.

Host plant quality, selection history and trade-offs shape the immune responses of Manduca sexta

Immune defences are an important component of fitness. Yet susceptibility to pathogens is common, suggesting the presence of ecological and evolutionary limitations on immune defences. Here, we use structural equation modelling to quantify the direct effects of resource quality and selection history, and their indirect effects mediated via body condition prior to an immune challenge on encapsulation and melanization immune defences in the tobacco hornworm, Manduca sexta. We also investigate allocation trade-offs among immune defences and growth rate following an immune challenge. We found considerable variation in the magnitude and direction of the direct effects of resource quality and selection history on immune defences and their indirect effects mediated via body condition and allocation trade-offs. Greater resource quality and evolutionary exposure to pathogens had positive direct effects on encapsulation and melanization. The indirect effect of resource quality on encapsulation mediated via body condition was substantial, whereas indirect effects on melanization were negligible. Individuals in better condition prior to the immune challenge had greater encapsulation; however, following the immune challenge, greater encapsulation traded off with slower growth rate. Our study demonstrates the importance of experimentally and analytically disentangling the relative contributions of direct and indirect effects to understand variation in immune defences.

Erroneous Arrhenius: modified arrhenius model best explains the temperature dependence of ectotherm fitness

The initial rise of fitness that occurs with increasing temperature is attributed to Arrhenius kinetics, in which rates of reaction increase exponentially with increasing temperature. Models based on Arrhenius typically assume single rate-limiting reactions over some physiological temperature range for which all the rate-limiting enzymes are in 100% active conformation. We test this assumption using data sets for microbes that have measurements of fitness (intrinsic rate of population growth) at many temperatures and over a broad temperature range and for diverse ectotherms that have measurements at fewer temperatures. When measurements are available at many temperatures, strictly Arrhenius kinetics are rejected over the physiological temperature range. However, over a narrower temperature range, we cannot reject strictly Arrhenius kinetics. The temperature range also affects estimates of the temperature dependence of fitness. These results indicate that Arrhenius kinetics only apply over a narrow range of temperatures for ectotherms, complicating attempts to identify general patterns of temperature dependence.

Environmental dependence of thermal reaction norms: host plant quality can reverse the temperature-size rule

The temperature-size rule, a form of phenotypic plasticity in which decreased temperature increases final size, is one of the most widespread patterns in biology, particularly for ectotherms. Identifying the environmental conditions in which this pattern is reversed is key to understanding the generality of the rule. We use wild and domesticated populations of the tobacco hornworm Manduca sexta and the natural host plants of this species to explore the consequences of resource quality for the temperature-size rule. Manduca sexta reared on a high-quality host, tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum), followed the temperature-size rule, with larger final sizes at lower temperatures. In contrast, M. sexta reared on a low-quality host, devil's claw (Proboscidea louisianica), showed the reverse response. Wild and domesticated M. sexta exhibited qualitatively similar responses. Survival, growth and development rates, fecundity, and final size decreased with decreasing temperature in M. sexta reared on devil's claw. We propose that the reversal of the temperature-size rule results from the stressful combination of low temperatures and low dietary quality. Such reversals may impact seasonal and geographic patterns of host use in Manduca and other systems. Our results suggest that the temperature-size rule occurs for a restricted range of nonstressful environmental conditions, limiting the robustness of this widespread pattern of phenotypic plasticity.

Hotter is better and broader: thermal sensitivity of fitness in a population of bacteriophages

Hotter is better is a hypothesis of thermal adaptation that posits that the rate-depressing effects of low temperature on biochemical reactions cannot be overcome by physiological plasticity or genetic adaptation. If so, then genotypes or populations adapted to warmer temperatures will have higher maximum growth rates than those adapted to low temperatures. Here we test hotter is better by measuring thermal reaction norms for intrinsic rate of population growth among an intraspecific collection of bacteriophages recently isolated from nature. Consistent with hotter is better, we find that phage genotypes with higher optimal temperatures have higher maximum growth rates. Unexpectedly, we also found that hotter is broader, meaning that the phages with the highest optimal temperatures also have the greatest temperature ranges. We found that the temperature sensitivity of fitness for phages is similar to that for insects.

The strength of phenotypic selection in natural populations

How strong is phenotypic selection on quantitative traits in the wild? We reviewed the literature from 1984 through 1997 for studies that estimated the strength of linear and quadratic selection in terms of standardized selection gradients or differentials on natural variation in quantitative traits for field populations. We tabulated 63 published studies of 62 species that reported over 2,500 estimates of linear or quadratic selection. More than 80% of the estimates were for morphological traits; there is very little data for behavioral or physiological traits. Most published selection studies were unreplicated and had sample sizes below 135 individuals, resulting in low statistical power to detect selection of the magnitude typically reported for natural populations. The absolute values of linear selection gradients |beta| were exponentially distributed with an overall median of 0.16, suggesting that strong directional selection was uncommon. The values of |beta| for selection on morphological and on life-history/phenological traits were significantly different: on average, selection on morphology was stronger than selection on phenology/life history. Similarly, the values of |beta| for selection via aspects of survival, fecundity, and mating success were significantly different: on average, selection on mating success was stronger than on survival. Comparisons of estimated linear selection gradients and differentials suggest that indirect components of phenotypic selection were usually modest relative to direct components. The absolute values of quadratic selection gradients |gamma| were exponentially distributed with an overall median of only 0.10, suggesting that quadratic selection is typically quite weak. The distribution of gamma values was symmetric about 0, providing no evidence that stabilizing selection is stronger or more common than disruptive selection in nature.

Influence of seasonal timing on thermal ecology and thermal reaction norm evolution in Wyeomyia smithii

Evolutionary changes in the seasonal timing of life-history events can alter a population's exposure to seasonally variable environmental factors. We illustrate this principle in Wyeomyia smithii by showing that: (1) geographic divergence in diapause timing reduces differences among populations in the thermal habitat experienced by nondiapause stages; and (2) the thermal habitat of the growing season is more divergent at high compared with low temperatures with respect to daily mean temperatures. Geographic variation in thermal reaction norms for development time was greater in a warm compared with a cool rearing treatment, mirroring the geographic trend in daily mean temperature. Geographic variation in body size was unrelated to geographic temperature variation, but was also unrelated to development time or fecundity. Our results suggest that proper interpretation of geographic trends may often require detailed knowledge of life-history timing.

Evolutionary Divergence in Thermal Sensitivity and Diapause of Field and Laboratory Populations ofManduca sexta

The tobacco hornworm Manduca sexta has been an important model system in insect biology for more than half a century. Here we report the evolutionary divergence in thermal sensitivity and diapause initiation between field and laboratory populations that were separated for more than 35 yr (>240 laboratory generations) and that are descendants from the same field populations in central North Carolina. At intermediate rearing temperatures (20 degrees-25 degrees C), mean body size was significantly larger and development time significantly faster in the laboratory than in the field populations. At higher temperatures (30 degrees -35 degrees C), these mean differences between populations were reduced or eliminated, and larval survival at 35 degrees C was significantly lower in the laboratory population than in the field population. F(1) crosses had survival and development time to wandering similar to the field population times at both 25 degrees and 35 degrees C; body mass at wandering for F(1) crosses was intermediate compared with that of the field and laboratory populations. Comparisons with earlier field and laboratory studies suggest evolutionary reductions in thermal tolerance and performance at high temperatures in the laboratory population. The critical photoperiod initiating diapause in field populations in North Carolina did not change detectably between the 1960s and 2005. In contrast, the laboratory population has evolved a reduced tendency to diapause under short-day conditions, relative to the field population.