3254Manifestations of myocardial fibrosis in the standard 12-lead electrocardiogram

Background

Myocardial fibrosis has substantial role in sudden cardiac deaths (SCD). Major challenge in preventing SCDs is early recognition of vulnerable patients with fibrotic cardiomyopathy. Our aim was to find manifestations of myocardial fibrosis in 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG).

Methods

Study population is based on the Fingesture study, which has gathered data from 5,869 consecutive autopsied SCD victims between 1998 and 2017 in Finland. The degree of fibrosis was determined based on the histological samples taken from the heart during autopsy and was categorized into four groups; 1) no fibrosis, 2) scattered mild fibrosis, 3) moderate patchy fibrosis and 4) substantial fibrosis. We were able to collect pre-mortem 12-lead ECGs from 1,100 SCD victims. Ischemic cardiomyopathy was the cause of death in 689 cases and 411 had nonischemic cardiomyopathy at autopsy in the group where ECG was available.

Results

Mean age of the study subjects was 66±13 years and 75% were male. At least some amount of myocardial fibrosis was present in 92% of the victims. QRS duration in ECG correlated with the degree of fibrosis in autopsy as follows; 96±21ms in group 1 (n=93), 97±20ms in group 2 (n=357), 103±26ms in group 3 (n=506) and 108±27ms in group 4 (n=144; p<0.001, β=0.153). Prevalence of fragmented QRS complex was higher among victims with severe fibrosis (40% in group 1, 43% in group 2, 60% in group 3 and 65% in group 4; p<0.001). Additionally, inferolateral T-wave inversions were more common in groups with increasing amount of myocardial fibrosis (5.4% in group 1, 13.2% in group 2, 20.4% in group 3 and 31.9% in group 4; p<0.001). Associations were visible in both ischemic and nonischemic SCDs but reached statistical significance only among ischemic SCD victims. Heart rate corrected JT interval and Sokolow-Lyon index had no linear correlation with the degree of fibrosis.

Conclusions

Myocardial fibrosis was associated with QRS prolongation, T-wave inversions and QRS fragmentation among SCD victims. Fibrosis did not manifest as clearly in ECG among patients with nonischemic cardiomyopathies as among ischemic SCD victims. The results may explain the increased risk for SCD in patients with abnormal QRS complex or inverted T waves providing means for recognizing patients with underlying fibrotic cardiomyopathy.

Acknowledgement/Funding

Sigrid Juselius Foundation, Foundation of Cardiac Research, Paavo Nurmi Foundation and Paulo foundation, Finland

3056Orthogonal P wave morphology, traditional P wave indices, and the risk of atrial fibrillation in the general population

Background

A substantial portion of the risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) remains unexplained by the established risk markers. However, accurate assessment of AF risk would be beneficial, especially among stroke patients and subjects with symptoms attributable to arrhythmia.

Purpose

To study the associations of P-wave indices with AF risk in the general population.

Methods

Electrocardiograms, including orthogonal leads, of 7217 Finnish subjects aged over 30 years who took part in the baseline examinations of the Mini-Finland Health Survey in 1978–80, were digitized. P-wave duration, third-degree interatrial block (IAB), and P terminal force (PTF) were assessed manually. PTF was considered abnormal when the amplitude of the negative terminal part of the P wave in lead V1 was ≥0.1mV and duration ≥40ms. Third-degree IAB was defined as P-wave duration ≥120ms and the presence of ≥2 +/− biphasic P-waves in the inferior leads. Orthogonal P-wave morphology, which is related to left atrial breakthrough site and affected by atrial fibrosis (1 being considered benign, 2 borderline, and 3 shown to be associated with adverse events), was assessed with an automated algorithm, and ascertained manually. Subjects were followed 10 years for AF hospitalization and mortality. The risk of AF associated with P wave parameters was assessed using Cox proportional hazards models. Model discrimination improvement was quantified by the change in C index, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and continuous net reclassification improvement (cNRI).

Results

There were 5489 subjects (47.8% male, mean age 50.5 years) with a readable ECG, sinus rhythm, no missing data, and a predefined orthogonal P-wave morphology. Type 3 orthogonal P morphology (n=216, multivariate adjusted HR [maHR] 3.01, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.66–5.45, p<0.001), P-wave duration ≥120ms (n=752, maHR 1.67, 95% CI 1.06–2.64, p=0.027), and third-degree IAB (n=103, maHR 3.18, 95% CI 1.66–6.13, p=0.001) were independently associated with the risk of AF in separate models. PTF did not independently predict AF. Subjects presenting with both Type 1 orthogonal P-wave morphology and P-wave duration <110ms (n=2074) were at low risk of AF (maHR 0.46, 95% CI 0.26–0.83, p=0.006) when compared to the rest of the subjects. The inclusion of variables combining orthogonal P-wave morphology and P-wave duration to a multivariate model including conventional AF risk factors improved C index from 0.815 to 0.832 (change 0.017, 95% CI 0.001–0.033), IDI was 0.012 (95% CI 0.006–0.051), and cNRI was 0.220 (95% CI 0.048–0.357).

Conclusions

P-wave indices and orthogonal P-wave morphology can be used to identify subjects at high and low risk for AF and possibly direct extensive AF screening protocols towards high-risk subjects in the general population in order to decrease the risk of cardioembolic stroke. However, more research is needed in this topic.

Acknowledgement/Funding

Finnish Medical Foundation, Onni and Hilja Tuovinen's Foundation, Orion Research Foundation, Paavo Nurmi's Foundation, Veritas Foundation

P5647Temporal variability of T-wave morphology and risk of sudden cardiac death in patients with coronary artery disease

Background

The possible relationship between temporal variability of electrocardiographic spatial heterogeneity of repolarisation and the risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) is not completely understood.

Purpose

To investigate the prognostic value of temporal variability of T-wave spatial heterogeneity in SCD in patients with CAD.

Methods

The Innovation to reduce Cardiovascular Complications of Diabetes at the Intersection (ARTEMIS) study population consisted of 1,946 patients with angiographically verified CAD. T-wave morphology dispersion (TMD), which estimates the average angle between all reconstruction vector pairs in T-wave loop based on leads I-II and V2-V6, was analysed on beat-to-beat basis from 10 minutes period of the baseline electrocardiographic recording in 1,678 study subjects. The temporal variability of TMD was evaluated by standard deviation of TMD (TMD-SD).

Results

After on average of 7.4±2.0 years of follow-up, a total of 47 of the 1,678 study subjects (2.8%) had experienced SCD or were resuscitated from sudden cardiac arrest (SCA). TMD-SD was significantly higher in patients who had experienced SCD/SCA compared with those who remained alive (3.64±2.57 vs. 2.65±2.54, p<0.01, respectively), but did not differ significantly between the patients who had experienced non-sudden cardiac death (n=40, 2.4%) and those who remained alive (2.98±2.43 vs. 2.67±2.55, p=0.45, respectively) or between the patients who succumbed to non-cardiac death (n=88, 5,2%) and those who stayed alive (2.74±2.44 vs. 2.67±2.55, p=0.81). After adjustments with relevant clinical risk indicators of SCD/SCA, such as left ventricular ejection fraction, diabetes, left bundle branch block and Canadian Cardiac Society class, TMD-SD still predicted SCD/SCA (HR 1.113, 95% CIs 1.028–1.206, p<0.01). The discrimination and reclassification accuracy increased significantly (p=0.02, p=0.033) and the C-index increased from 0.733 to 0.741 when TMD-SD was added to the clinical risk model of SCD/SCA. The Kaplan-Meier survival curves show proportional probabilities of event-free survival for different modes of death for patients classified according to the optimised TMD-SD cut-off point (Figure).

Figure 1

Conclusions

Temporal variability of electrocardiographic spatial heterogeneity of repolarisation represented by TMD-SD independently predicts long-term risk of SCD/SCA in patients with CAD.

Acknowledgement/Funding

Sigrid Juselius Foundation and Finnish Foundation for Cardiovascular Research

P5642A clinical risk score for estimating sudden cardiac death risk in the general population

Background

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) remains a major cause of premature mortality worldwide, so there has been an ongoing pursuit for tools for SCD risk stratification. Coronary artery disease is the major cause for SCD in adults, but the level of risk associated with multiple cardiovascular risk factors is not well established.

Purpose

To create a clinical risk score for estimating SCD risk in the general population.

Methods

Using data from a Finnish general population cohort of 7200 adults (mean age 51y, 46% male) with a mean follow-up of 24±11 years, we assessed the incremental SCD risk associated with the presence of several cardiovascular risk factors. SCD events were adjudicated based on death certificates according to the established criteria (autopsy was performed on 48% of SCD cases). Hazard ratios (HR) for SCD and all-cause mortality were calculated using the Cox proportional hazards model. Of the multiple parameters analysed, male sex, increasing age, diabetes, hypertension, smoking and previously diagnosed cardiac disease were independently associated with SCD in a multivariable model. Based on the magnitude of risk, a SCD risk score was created (2 points: age >70y; 1 point: male sex, age 60–70y, diabetes, hypertension, smoking, cardiac disease).

Results

75.2% of the study subjects had 0–2 risk points, 12.8% 3 risk points, and 12.0% >3 risk points. During the follow-up, 400 SCDs occurred. Increasing risk score was associated with a progressively greater risk for SCD (Figure). Compared with subjects without risk factors, those with a risk score of 3 had a HR of 21.2 (95% CI 12.7–35.4, p<0.001) and those with a risk score of >3 had a HR of 52.6 (95% CI 31.3–88.3, p<0.001) for SCD. Clinical risk score predicted significantly also all-cause mortality (HR 31.5 with risk score >3 [95% CI 27.6–35.9, p<0.001]).

Risk of SCD according to the risk score

Conclusions

Accumulation of multiple cardiovascular risk factors is associated with a markedly elevated risk for SCD in the general population. This highlights the need for SCD prevention efforts with lifestyle interventions and medical therapy in the high-risk subjects. Studies on focused SCD risk stratification may be warranted in the subjects at highest risk.

Primary Myocardial Fibrosis as an Alternative Phenotype Pathway of Inherited Cardiac Structural Disorders

BACKGROUND

Myocardial fibrosis is a common postmortem finding among young individuals with sudden cardiac death. Because there is no known single cause, we tested the hypothesis that some cases of myocardial fibrosis in the absence of identifiable causes (primary myocardial fibrosis [PMF]) are associated with genetic variants.

METHODS

Tissue was obtained at autopsy from 4031 consecutive individuals with sudden cardiac death in Northern Finland, among whom PMF was the only structural finding in 145 subjects with sudden cardiac death. We performed targeted next-generation sequencing using a panel of 174 genes associated with myocardial structure and ion channel function when autopsies did not identify a secondary basis for myocardial fibrosis. All variants with an effect on protein and with a minor allele frequency <0.01 were classified as pathogenic or variants of uncertain significance on the basis of American College of Medical Genetics consensus guidelines.

RESULTS

Among the 96 specimens with DNA passing quality control (66%), postmortem genetic tests identified 24 variants of known or uncertain significance in 26 subjects (27%). Ten were pathogenic/likely pathogenic variants in 10 subjects (10%), and 14 were variants of uncertain significance in 11 genes among 16 subjects (17%). Five variants were in genes associated with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy, 6 in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy-associated genes, and 11 in dilated cardiomyopathy-associated genes; 2 were not associated with these disorders. Four unique variants of uncertain significance cosegregated among multiple unrelated subjects with PMF. No pathogenic/likely pathogenic variants were detected in ion channel-encoding genes.

CONCLUSIONS

A large proportion of subjects with PMF at autopsy had variants in genes associated with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy, dilated cardiomyopathy, and hypertrophic cardiomyopathy without autopsy findings of those diseases, suggesting that PMF can be an alternative phenotypic expression of structural disease-associated genetic variants or that risk-associated fibrosis was expressing before the primary disease. These findings have clinical implications for postmortem genetic testing and family risk profiling.

Prognostic significance of P-wave morphology in patients with coronary artery disease

INTRODUCTION

The prognostic significance of P-wave morphology in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) is not well-known.

METHODS

A total of 1946 patients with angiographically verified CAD were included in the Innovation to reduce Cardiovascular Complications of Diabetes at the Intersection (ARTEMIS) study. The P-wave morphology could be analyzed in 1797 patients.

RESULTS

During 7.4 ± 2.0 years, a total of 168 (9.3%) patients died or experienced resuscitation from sudden cardiac arrest (SCA), 43 (2.4%) patients experienced sudden cardiac death (SCD) or were resuscitated from SCA, 37 (2.1%) patients succumbed to non-SCD (NSCD), and 88 (4.9%) patients to noncardiac death (NCD). Of the P-wave parameters, the absolute P-wave residuum (PWR), the heterogeneity of the P-wave morphology (PWH), and the P-wave duration (Pdur) had the closest univariate association with the risk of SCD/SCA (0.0038 ± 0.0026 vs 0.0022 ± 0.0017, P < .001; 11.0 ± 5.2 vs 8.6 ± 3.6, P < .01; 142.7 ± 16.9 vs 134.8 ± 14.3 milliseconds, P < .01; SCD/SCA vs no SCD/SCA, respectively). After adjustments with factors that were associated with the risk of SCD/SCA, such as diabetes, smoking, left bundle branch block, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, and high-sensitivity troponin T, PWR (P < .001), PWH (P < .05), and Pdur (P < 0.01) still predicted SCD/SCA but not non-sudden cardiac death. When these parameters were added to the SCD/SCA clinical risk model, the discrimination and reclassification accuracy of the risk model increased significantly (P < .05, P < .001) and the C-index increased from 0.745 to 0.787.

CONCLUSION

The P-wave morphology parameters independently predict SCD/SCA in patients with CAD.

Prediabetes and Risk for Cardiac Death Among Patients With Coronary Artery Disease: The ARTEMIS Study

OBJECTIVE

To compare cardiac mortality in patients with CAD and prediabetes with that in CAD patients with normal glycemic status and type 2 diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

The Innovation to Reduce Cardiovascular Complications of Diabetes at the Intersection (ARTEMIS) study included patients with CAD after revascularization (79%), optimal medical therapy, or both. Patients had type 2 diabetes (n = 834), impaired glucose tolerance (IGT; n = 314), impaired fasting glucose (IFG; n = 103), or normal glycemic status (n = 697) as defined on the basis of the results of an oral glucose tolerance test. The primary end point was cardiac death. Major adverse cardiac event (MACE: cardiac death, heart failure, or acute coronary syndrome) and all-cause mortality were secondary end points.

RESULTS

During a mean ± SD follow-up of 6.3 ± 1.6 years, 101 cardiac deaths, 385 MACEs, and 208 deaths occurred. Patients with IGT tended to have 49% lower adjusted risk for cardiac death (P = 0.069), 32% lower adjusted risk for all-cause mortality (P = 0.076), and 36% lower adjusted risk for MACE (P = 0.011) than patients with type 2 diabetes. The patients with IFG had 82% lower adjusted risk for all-cause mortality (P = 0.015) than the patients with type 2 diabetes, whereas risks for cardiac death and MACE did not differ significantly between the two groups. The adjusted risks for cardiac death, MACE, and all-cause mortality among patients with IGT and IFG did not significantly differ from those risks among patients with normal glycemic status.

CONCLUSIONS

Cardiac mortality or incidence of MACE in patients with CAD with prediabetes (i.e., IGT or IFG after revascularization, optimal medical therapy, or both) does not differ from those values in patients with normal glycemic status.

Risk Factors Associated With Atrioventricular Block

IMPORTANCE

Pacemaker implantations as a treatment for atrioventricular (AV) block are increasing worldwide. Prevention strategies for AV block are lacking because modifiable risk factors have not yet been identified.

OBJECTIVE

To identify risk factors for AV block in community-dwelling individuals.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

In this population-based cohort study, data from the Mini-Finland Health Survey, conducted from January 1, 1978, to December 31, 1980, were used to examine demographics, comorbidities, habits, and laboratory and electrocardiographic (ECG) measurements as potential risk factors for incident AV block. Data were ascertained during follow-up from January 1, 1987, through December 31, 2011, using a nationwide registry. A total of 6146 community-dwelling individuals were included in the analysis performed from January 15 through April 3, 2018.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Incidence of AV block (hospitalization for second- or third-degree AV block).

RESULTS

Among the 6146 participants (3449 [56.1%] women; mean [SD] age, 49.2 [12.9] years), 529 (8.6%) had ECG evidence of conduction disease and 58 (0.9%) experienced a hospitalization with AV block. Older age (hazard ratio [HR] per 5-year increment, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.16-1.54; P < .001), male sex (HR, 2.04; 95% CI, 1.19-3.45; P = .01), a history of myocardial infarction (HR, 3.54; 95% CI, 1.33-9.42; P = .01), and a history of congestive heart failure (HR, 3.33; 95% CI, 1.10-10.09; P = .03) were each independently associated with AV block. Two modifiable risk factors were also independently associated with AV block. Every 10-mm Hg increase in systolic blood pressure was associated with a 22% higher risk (HR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.10-1.34; P = .005), and every 20-mg/dL increase in fasting glucose level was associated with a 22% higher risk (HR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.08-1.35; P = .001). Both risk factors remained statistically significant (HR for systolic blood pressure, 1.26 [95% CI, 1.06-1.49; P = .007]; HR for glucose level, 1.22 [95% CI, 1.04-1.43; P = .01]) after adjustment for major adverse coronary events during the follow-up period. In population-attributable risk assessment, an estimated 47% (95% CI, 8%-67%) of AV blocks may have been avoided if all participants exhibited ideal blood pressure and 11% (95% CI, 2%-21%) may have been avoided if all had a normal fasting glucose level.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this analysis of data from a population-based cohort study, suboptimal blood pressure and fasting glucose level were associated with AV block. These results suggest that a large proportion of AV blocks are assocated with these risk factors, even after adjusting for other major adverse coronary events.

Home Monitoring of Heart Rate as a Predictor of Imminent Cardiovascular Events

Introduction: Previous studies have documented that day-to-day variability of heart rate (HR) has prognostic significance for cardiovascular (CV) events in general population. It is unknown how HR dynamics variate before imminent CV event in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). Our aim was to study day-to-day variation in HR dynamics before the occurrence of CV event in patients with initially stable CAD.

Methods: Forty-four patients with angiographically documented CAD from ARTEMIS study measured R-R intervals on a weekly basis at home for 2 years. Home measurements were performed in controlled conditions (3 min at supine and sitting) 1–2 times per week. Eleven patients had a CV event (7 acute coronary syndromes, 1 cardiac death, 2 new onset of arrhythmia needing hospitalization and 1 stroke), which occurred 11 ± 7 months after enrolment. Mean R-R interval was analyzed prospectively from the home measurements. For the patients with new CV event, average, and standard deviation (SD) of the mean R-R interval over 8 weeks preceding the CV event were calculated. For the patients without new CV event, corresponding period was determined by the median follow-up at the occurrence of new CV event.

Results: There were no differences in the mean R-R interval analyzed over 8 weeks between the patients with and without new CV event. The variability of mean R-R interval over 8 weeks was greater in the patients with new CV event compared to the patients without new CV event at the supine (95 ± 34 vs. 59 ± 26 ms, p < 0.001) and sitting positions (92 ± 28 vs. 62 ± 24 ms, p < 0.001).

Conclusion: Day-to-day variability of mean R-R interval is greater before the new CV event in CAD patients suggesting to a more unstable cardiac autonomic regulation preceding these events.

Recovery of rate-pressure product and cardiac mortality in coronary artery disease patients with type 2 diabetes

AIMS

To investigate prognostic significance of post-exercise recovery of rate-pressure product (RPP) in patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD) and type 2 diabetes (T2D).

METHODS

Patients with angiographically documented CAD and T2D (n = 697) underwent symptom-limited bicycle exercise test. Exercise capacity (EC), heart rate, blood pressure and RPP responses to peak exercise and recovery (2' and 5' after cessation of exercise) were analyzed. Cardiac death was the primary and sudden cardiac death (SCD) secondary endpoint.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 76 months, 49 cardiac deaths (7.0%) and 28 SCDs (4.0%) were observed. The recovery of RPP at 5' was the strongest univariate predictor of cardiac death (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.55 per SD decrease, 95%CI: 1.82-3.58, p < 0.001) and SCD (HR: 2.34, 95%CI: 1.51-3.62, p < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, it remained significantly associated to cardiac death and SCD without (HR: 1.66, 95%CI: 1.14-2.41, p < 0.01 and HR: 1.75, 95%CI: 1.08-2.85, p < 0.05, respectively) and with additional adjustment for EC and peak RPP (HR: 1.45, 95%CI: 1.09-1.92, p < 0.05 and HR: 1.52, 95%CI: 1.01-2.27, p < 0.05, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

The recovery of RPP after exercise is a potent predictor of cardiac death in patients with CAD and T2D. It provides significant prognostic information beyond EC and peak RPP.

Long-term prognostic impact of hyperuricemia in community

The debate whether an elevated level of serum uric acid (SUA) is an independent marker of cardiovascular risk is still going on. We examined morbidity and mortality related to SUA and hyperuricemia in a well-characterized population with very long follow-up. Study included 4696 participants (aged 30-59 years at baseline) of the coronary heart disease (CHD) Study of the Finnish Mobile Clinic Health Examination Survey. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of hyperuricemia (defined as ≥360 µmol/l and ≥420 µmol/l) and SUA quintiles for mortality and adverse cardiovascular outcomes are reported. During the mean follow up of 30.6 years there were 2723 deaths, 887 deaths for CHD of which 340 were classified as sudden cardiac deaths, 1642 hospitalizations due to CHD and 798 hospitalizations due to congestive heart failure. After adjusting to baseline risk factors and presence of cardiovascular diseases as well as the use of diuretics there were no significant differences in the risk of any of the outcomes when analyzed either according to quintiles of SUA or using a cut-off point SUA ≥360 µmol/l for hyperuricemia. Only a rare finding of hyperuricemia SUA ≥420 µmol/l among women (n = 17, 0.9%) was independently associated with significantly higher risk of mortality (adjusted HR: 2.59, 95% CI: 1.54-4.34) and a combination end-point of major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) (HR: 2.69; 95% CI: 1.56-4.66). SUA was not an independent indicator of morbidity and mortality, with the exception of particularly high levels of SUA among women.

Prevalence and Prognostic Significance of Negative U-waves in a 12-lead Electrocardiogram in the General Population

Negative U-waves are a relatively rare finding in an electrocardiogram (ECG), but are often associated with cardiac disease. The prognostic significance of negative U-waves in the general population is unknown. We evaluated 12-lead ECGs of 6,518 adults (45% male, mean age 50.9 ± 13.8 years) for the presence of U-waves, and followed the subjects for 24.5 ± 10.3 years. Primary end points were all-cause mortality, cardiac mortality, and sudden cardiac death; secondary end point was hospitalization due to cardiac causes. Negative U-waves (amplitude ≥0.05 mV) were present in 231 subjects (3.5%), minor negative (amplitude <0.05 mV) or discordant U-waves in 1,004 subjects (15.4%), normal positive U-waves in 3,950 (60.6%) subjects, and no U-waves were observed in 603 subjects (9.3%). In 730 subjects (11.2%), U-waves were unassessable. When adjusted for age and gender, negative U-waves were associated with all end points (p <0.01). In an analysis adjusted for multiple demographic and clinical factors, in men, negative U-waves were associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1.60; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.26 to 2.03; p <0.001), cardiac mortality (HR 1.74; 95% CI 1.26 to 2.39; p = 0.001), and cardiac hospitalization (HR 1.67; 95% CI 1.27 to 2.18; p <0.001), but not with sudden cardiac death, whereas women did not show a significant association to any of the end points (p >0.30). In conclusion, negative U-waves are associated with adverse events in the general population. In men, this association is independent of cardiovascular risk factors.

A comprehensive evaluation of the genetic architecture of sudden cardiac arrest

Aims

Sudden cardiac arrest (SCA) accounts for 10% of adult mortality in Western populations. We aim to identify potential loci associated with SCA and to identify risk factors causally associated with SCA.

Methods and results

We carried out a large genome-wide association study (GWAS) for SCA (n = 3939 cases, 25 989 non-cases) to examine common variation genome-wide and in candidate arrhythmia genes. We also exploited Mendelian randomization (MR) methods using cross-trait multi-variant genetic risk score associations (GRSA) to assess causal relationships of 18 risk factors with SCA. No variants were associated with SCA at genome-wide significance, nor were common variants in candidate arrhythmia genes associated with SCA at nominal significance. Using cross-trait GRSA, we established genetic correlation between SCA and (i) coronary artery disease (CAD) and traditional CAD risk factors (blood pressure, lipids, and diabetes), (ii) height and BMI, and (iii) electrical instability traits (QT and atrial fibrillation), suggesting aetiologic roles for these traits in SCA risk.

Conclusions

Our findings show that a comprehensive approach to the genetic architecture of SCA can shed light on the determinants of a complex life-threatening condition with multiple influencing factors in the general population. The results of this genetic analysis, both positive and negative findings, have implications for evaluating the genetic architecture of patients with a family history of SCA, and for efforts to prevent SCA in high-risk populations and the general community.

Combining noninvasive risk stratification parameters improves the prediction of mortality and appropriate ICD shocks

BACKGROUND

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) results from a complex interplay of abnormalities in autonomic function, myocardial substrate and vulnerability. We studied whether a combination of noninvasive risk stratification tests reflecting these key players could improve risk stratification.

METHODS

Patients implanted with an ICD in whom 24-hr holter recordings were available prior to implant were included. QRS fragmentation (fQRS) was selected as measure of myocardial substrate and a high ventricular premature beat count (VPB >10/hr) for arrhythmic vulnerability. From receiver operating characteristics analysis, detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), turbulence slope, and deceleration capacity were selected for autonomic function. Adjusted Cox regression analysis with comparison of C-statistics was performed to predict first appropriate shock (AS) and total mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 220 patients were included in the analysis with an overall follow-up of 4.3 ± 3.1 years. A model including VPB >10/hr, inferior fQRS, and abnormal nonedited DFA was the best for prediction of AS after 1 year of follow-up with a trends toward improvement of the C-statistics compared to baseline (p = 0.055). The risk increased significantly with every abnormal test (HR 1.793, 95%CI 1.255-2.564). A model including fQRS in any region and abnormal edited DFA was the best for prediction of mortality after 3 years of follow-up with significant improvement of the C-statistics (p = 0.023). Each abnormal test was associated with a significant increase in mortality (HR 5.069, 95%CI 1.978-12.994).

CONCLUSION

Combining noninvasive risk stratification tests according to their physiological background can improve the risk prediction of SCD and mortality.

Biomarkers as predictors of sudden cardiac death in coronary artery disease patients with preserved left ventricular function (ARTEMIS study)

Aims

Biomarkers have shown promising results in risk assessment of cardiovascular events. Their role in predicting the risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD) is not well established. We tested the performance of several biomarkers in risk assessment for SCD in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) and preserved left ventricular function.

Methods and results

The study population consisted of 1,946 CAD patients (68% male; mean age 66.9±8.6 yrs; type 2 diabetes (T2D) 43%) enrolled in the ARTEMIS study. The study subjects underwent examinations with echocardiography and measurement of several biomarkers. The primary endpoint of the study was SCD. During the mean follow up of 76±20 months 50 patients experienced SCD. Elevated high sensitive CRP (hs-CRP, p = 0.001), soluble ST2 (sST2, p<0.001), B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP, p<0.001), and highly sensitive TroponinT (hs-TnT, p<0.001) predicted the occurrence of SCD in univariate analysis. Using the optimal cutoff points, elevated sST2 (≥27.45ng/mL; hazard ratio [HR] 2.7; 95%CI 1.4–5.1, p = 0.003) and hs-TnT (≥15 ng/mL; HR 2.9; 95% CI 1.5–5.6, p = 0.002) were the strongest predictors of SCD followed by hs-CRP (HR 2.4; 95% CI 1.3–4.4, p = 0.004) and BNP (HR 1.9; 95% CI 1.0–3.7, p = 0.046) in adjusted analysis. Combination of elevated hs-TnT and sST2 resulted in adjusted HR of 6.4 (95% CI 2.6–15.5, p<0.001).

Conclusion

Elevated sST2 and hs-TnT predict the occurrence of SCD among patients with CAD and preserved left ventricular function. The association between sST2, hs-TnT and SCD may be explained by an ongoing myocardial apoptosis followed by fibrosis leading to vulnerability to malignant arrhythmias.

Depressive Symptoms and Risk for Sudden Cardiac Death in Stable Coronary Artery Disease

The association between the mode of death and depression in patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD) is far from clear. We investigated the association between depressive symptoms and the mode of death including all-cause mortality, noncardiac death, sudden cardiac death (SCD), and non-SCD in stable CAD patients. Patients with angiographically documented CAD (n = 1,928) underwent a clinical examination including screening for depression symptoms with the Depression Scale (DEPS) and extensive risk profiling at the baseline. The patients were divided into quartiles based on their DEPS score. The patients entered the follow-up (median 6.3 years) during which 49 SCDs (2.5%) and 48 non-SCDs (2.5%) occurred. The incidence of SCD was 1.1% (5 events), 2.0% (9 events), 2.6% (14 events), and 4.4% (21 events) from the lowest to the highest quartile of DEPS. The patients in the highest quartile of DEPS had a fourfold elevated univariate risk (95% confidence interval 1.5 to 10.5; p = 0.006), and after adjustment for traditional risk factors, a 3.2-fold elevated multivariate risk (95% confidence interval 1.2 to 8.9, p = 0.025) for SCD compared with patients in the lowest quartile. DEPS was not associated with non-SCD or noncardiac deaths. Depressive symptoms are associated with an increased risk of SCD independently of clinical risk factors in patients with CAD. The results highlight the importance of screening for depression and emphasize the need for additional interventions to alleviate the depressive symptoms in these patients.

Coronary stenosis as a modifier of the effect of cold spells on the risk of sudden cardiac death: a case-crossover study in Finland

OBJECTIVE

To test the a priori hypothesis that the association between cold spells and ischaemic sudden cardiac death (SCD) is modified by the severity of coronary stenosis.

METHODS

The home coordinates of 2572 autopsy-verified cases of ischaemic SCD aged ≥35 in the Province of Oulu, Finland, were linked to 51 years of weather data. Cold spell was statistically defined for each home address as unusually cold weather pertinent to the location and time of year. We estimated the occurrence of cold spells during the hazard period (7 days preceding death) and reference periods (the same calendar days over 51 years) in a case-crossover setting applying conditional logistic regression, controlling for temporal trends and stratifying by severity of coronary stenosis.

RESULTS

The association between cold spells and ischaemic SCD was stronger among patients with 75%-95% stenosis (OR 2.03; 95% CI 1.31 to 3.17), and weaker to non-existent among patients with <75% stenosis (OR 0.97; 95% CI 0.37 to 2.55) or coronary total occlusion (100% stenosis) (OR 1.01; 95% CI 0.52 to 1.96). Lack of calcium-channel blockers and statin therapy seemed to accentuate the role of stenosis during cold spells.

CONCLUSIONS

We provide evidence that the association between cold spells and ischaemic SCD is modified by the severity of coronary stenosis. The findings suggest that disturbances in coronary circulation play part in the pathogenesis of SCD during cold weather.

Characteristics and Prognosis of Exercise-Related Sudden Cardiac Arrest

Introduction: The previous studies about exercise-related sudden cardiac arrest (SCA) have mainly focused on sports activity, but information related to SCA in other forms of physical exercise is lacking. Our aim was to identify characteristics and prognosis of SCA victims in the general population who suffered SCA during physical activity. Methods and results: We collected retrospectively all cases of attempted resuscitation in Oulu University Hospital Area between 2007 and 2012. A total of 300 cases were of cardiac origin. We only included witnessed cases with Emergency Medical System arrival time ≤15 min. Cases of low-intensity physical activity were excluded. A total of 47 SCAs occurred during moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (exercise-group) and 43 cases took place at rest (rest-group). The subjects in exercise-group were younger compared to the rest-group (60 ± 14 years vs. 67 ± 14 years, p = 0.016). The initial rhythm recorded was more often ventricular fibrillation (VF) in exercise-group compared to the rest-group (77 vs. 50%, p = 0.010). Pulseless electrical activity (PEA) was rare in exercise-group compared to the rest -group (2.1 vs. 14%, p = 0.033, respectively). Bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) was more often performed when SCA took place during physical exercise (47 vs. 23 %, p = 0.020). Survival rates to hospital discharge were higher in the exercise-group compared to the rest -group (49 vs. 9.3%, p < 0.0001). Conclusions: SCA occurring during physical activity is more frequently a result of VF and bystander CPR is more often performed. There is also a notably better survival rate to hospital discharge.

Prognostic value of T-wave morphology parameters in coronary artery disease in current treatment era

BACKGROUND

The prognostic value of T-wave morphology parameters in coronary artery disease in the current treatment era is not well established.

METHODS

The Innovation to reduce Cardiovascular Complications of Diabetes at the Intersection (ARTEMIS) study included 1,946 patients with angiographically verified coronary artery disease (CAD). The study patients underwent thorough examinations including 12-lead digital electrocardiogram (ECG) at baseline.

RESULTS

During a follow-up period of 73 ± 22 months, a total of 201 (10.3%) patients died. Of the study patients, 95 (4.9%) experienced cardiac death (CD) consisting of 44 (2.3%) sudden cardiac deaths (SCD) and 51 (2.6%) nonsudden cardiac deaths (NSCD), and 106 (5.4%) patients experienced noncardiac death (NCD). T-wave morphology dispersion (TMD), T-wave area dispersion (TWAD), and total cosine R-to-T (TCRT) had a significant association with CD even after adjustment with relevant clinical risk markers in the Cox regression analysis (multivariate HRs: 1.015, 95% CI 1.007-1.023, p = .0003; 0.474, 95% CI 0.305-0.737, p = .0009; 0.598, 95% CI 0.412-0.866, p = .006, respectively). When including these parameters to the clinical risk model for CD, the C-index increased from 0.810 to 0.823 improving the discrimination significantly (integrated discrimination index [IDI] = 0.0118, 95% CI 0.0028-0.0208, p = .01). These parameters were more closely associated with NSCD (multivariate p-values from .016 to .001) than with SCD (univariate/multivariate p-values for TMD .015/.197 and for TCRT .012/.43).

CONCLUSION

T-wave morphology parameters describing repolarization heterogeneity improve the predictive power of the clinical risk model for CD in patients with CAD in the current treatment era.

Effect of Changes in Physical Activity on Risk for Cardiac Death in Patients With Coronary Artery Disease

Leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) is associated with longevity in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). However, less is known about prognostic significance of longitudinally assessed LTPA in patients with stable CAD. The present study assessed the relationship between changes in LTPA and cardiac mortality in patients with CAD. Patients with angiographically documented CAD (n = 1,746) underwent clinical examination and echocardiography at the baseline. Lifestyle factors, including LTPA (inactive, irregularly active, active, highly active), were surveyed at baseline and after 2 years' follow-up. Thereafter, the patients entered the follow-up (median: 4.5 years; first to third quartile: 3.4 to 5.8 years) during which cardiac deaths were registered (n = 68, 3.9%). The patients who remained inactive (n = 114, 18 events, 16%) and became inactive (n = 228, 18 events, 8%) had 7.6- (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.2 to 13.6) and 3.7-fold (95% CI 2.1 to 6.7) univariate risk for cardiac death compared with those who remained at least irregularly active (n = 1,351, 30 events, 2%), respectively. After adjustment for age, gender, body mass index, diabetes, previous myocardial infarction, left ventricular ejection fraction, angina pectoris grading, cardiovascular event during initial 2-year follow-up, smoking and alcohol consumption, the patients who remained inactive and became inactive still had 4.9- (95% CI 2.4 to 9.8, p <0.001) and 2.4-fold (95% CI 1.3 to 4.5, p <0.01) risk for cardiac death, respectively, compared with patients remaining at least irregularly active. In conclusion, LTPA has important prognostic value for cardiac death in patients with stable CAD. Even minor changes in LTPA over 2 years were related to the subsequent risk for cardiac death.