Detecting COVID-19 infection hotspots in England using large-scale self-reported data from a mobile application: a prospective, observational study

BACKGROUND

As many countries seek to slow the spread of COVID-19 without reimposing national restrictions, it has become important to track the disease at a local level to identify areas in need of targeted intervention.

METHODS

We performed modelling on longitudinal, self-reported data from users of the COVID Symptom Study app in England between 24 March and 29 September, 2020. Combining a symptom-based predictive model for COVID-19 positivity and RT-PCR tests provided by the Department of Health we were able to estimate disease incidence, prevalence and effective reproduction number. Geographically granular estimates were used to highlight regions with rapidly increasing case numbers, or hotspots.

FINDINGS

More than 2.8 million app users in England provided 120 million daily reports of their symptoms, and recorded the results of 170,000 PCR tests. On a national level our estimates of incidence and prevalence showed similar sensitivity to changes as two national community surveys: the ONS and REACT-1 studies. On 28 September 2020 we estimated 15,841 (95% CI 14,023-17,885) daily cases, a prevalence of 0.53% (95% CI 0.45-0.60), and R(t) of 1.17 (95% credible interval 1.15-1.19) in England. On a geographically granular level, on 28 September 2020 we detected 15 of the 20 regions with highest incidence according to Government test data, with indications that our method may be able to detect rapid case increases in regions where Government testing provision is more limited.

INTERPRETATION

Self-reported data from mobile applications can provide an agile resource to inform policymakers during a fast-moving pandemic, serving as an independent and complementary resource to more traditional instruments for disease surveillance.

FUNDING

Zoe Global Limited, Department of Health, Wellcome Trust, EPSRC, NIHR, MRC, Alzheimer's Society.

Publisher Correction: Human postprandial responses to food and potential for precision nutrition

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) infection in pregnant women: characterization of symptoms and syndromes predictive of disease and severity through real-time, remote participatory epidemiology

Objective:

To test whether pregnant and non-pregnant women differ in COVID-19 symptom profile and severity. To extend previous investigations on hospitalized pregnant women to those who did not require hospitalization.

Design:

Observational study prospectively collecting longitudinal (smartphone application interface) and cross-sectional (web-based survey) data.

Setting:

Community-based self-participatory citizen surveillance in the United Kingdom, Sweden and the United States of America.

Population:

Two female community-based cohorts aged 18–44 years. The discovery cohort was drawn from 1,170,315 UK, Sweden and USA women (79 pregnant tested positive) who self-reported status and symptoms longitudinally via smartphone. The replication cohort included 1,344,966 USA women (134 pregnant tested positive) who provided cross-sectional self-reports.

Methods:

Pregnant and non-pregnant were compared for frequencies of symptoms and events, including SARS-CoV-2 testing and hospitalization rates. Multivariable regression was used to investigate symptoms severity and comorbidity effects.

Results:

Pregnant and non-pregnant women positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection were not different in syndromic severity. Pregnant were more likely to have received testing than non-pregnant, despite reporting fewer symptoms. Pre-existing lung disease was most closely associated with the syndromic severity in pregnant hospitalized women. Heart and kidney diseases and diabetes increased risk. The most frequent symptoms among all non-hospitalized women were anosmia [63% pregnant, 92% non-pregnant] and headache [72%, 62%]. Cardiopulmonary symptoms, including persistent cough [80%] and chest pain [73%], were more frequent among pregnant women who were hospitalized.

Conclusions:

Symptom characteristics and severity were comparable among pregnant and non-pregnant women, except for gastrointestinal symptoms. Consistent with observations in non-pregnant populations, lung disease and diabetes were associated with increased risk of more severe SARS-CoV-2 infection during pregnancy.

Pregnancy with SARS-CoV-2 has no higher risk of severe symptoms. Underlying lung disease or cardiac condition can increase risk.

Modelling scenarios of environmental recovery after implementation of controls on emissions of persistent organic pollutants

Comparison of monitoring data with toxicologically-derived environmental quality standards (EQSs) forms the basis of assessments of the quality status of the water environment. Having established the status quo, the logical next step is to address instances of non-compliance with EQSs by applying remedial measures, including reducing the use or at least the emission of the substances of concern or by taking steps to reduce concentrations already present using technological solutions such as enhanced wastewater treatment. The selection of suitable remedial measures must be a compromise between cost, likely effectiveness and the timescale over which improvements might be acceptable. The decision on overall environmental management has also to take into account the need for demonstrable progress; this might mean that it is preferable to address some more readily achievable goal rather than to attempt to solve a more serious, but ultimately intractable problem. This paper describes the development and application of a generic modelling tool that provides a way of assessing the potential requirements for remedial actions and their likely outcomes over a timescale of up to forty years taking account of sediment partitioning, environmental degradation and biological accumulation. The tool was validated using a detailed UK wastewater treatment works effluent discharge dataset. Examples involving several chemicals that are of current concern are provided. Some substances (e.g. tributyltin, PFOS) are identified as likely to meet EQS values in sediments or biota in a relatively short timescale; others (PAHs, DEHP) appear to represent more intractable problems.

Risk of COVID-19 among front-line health-care workers and the general community: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Data for front-line health-care workers and risk of COVID-19 are limited. We sought to assess risk of COVID-19 among front-line health-care workers compared with the general community and the effect of personal protective equipment (PPE) on risk.

METHODS

We did a prospective, observational cohort study in the UK and the USA of the general community, including front-line health-care workers, using self-reported data from the COVID Symptom Study smartphone application (app) from March 24 (UK) and March 29 (USA) to April 23, 2020. Participants were voluntary users of the app and at first use provided information on demographic factors (including age, sex, race or ethnic background, height and weight, and occupation) and medical history, and subsequently reported any COVID-19 symptoms. We used Cox proportional hazards modelling to estimate multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of our primary outcome, which was a positive COVID-19 test. The COVID Symptom Study app is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04331509.

FINDINGS

Among 2 035 395 community individuals and 99 795 front-line health-care workers, we recorded 5545 incident reports of a positive COVID-19 test over 34 435 272 person-days. Compared with the general community, front-line health-care workers were at increased risk for reporting a positive COVID-19 test (adjusted HR 11·61, 95% CI 10·93-12·33). To account for differences in testing frequency between front-line health-care workers and the general community and possible selection bias, an inverse probability-weighted model was used to adjust for the likelihood of receiving a COVID-19 test (adjusted HR 3·40, 95% CI 3·37-3·43). Secondary and post-hoc analyses suggested adequacy of PPE, clinical setting, and ethnic background were also important factors.

INTERPRETATION

In the UK and the USA, risk of reporting a positive test for COVID-19 was increased among front-line health-care workers. Health-care systems should ensure adequate availability of PPE and develop additional strategies to protect health-care workers from COVID-19, particularly those from Black, Asian, and minority ethnic backgrounds. Additional follow-up of these observational findings is needed.

FUNDING

Zoe Global, Wellcome Trust, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, National Institutes of Health Research, UK Research and Innovation, Alzheimer's Society, National Institutes of Health, National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, and Massachusetts Consortium on Pathogen Readiness.

Physiological performance and inflammatory markers as indicators of complications after oesophageal cancer surgery

BACKGROUND

The extent to which physiological factors influence outcome following oesophageal cancer surgery is poorly understood. This study aimed to evaluate the extent to which cardiorespiratory fitness and selected metabolic factors predicted complications after surgery for carcinoma.

METHODS

Two hundred and twenty-five consecutive patients underwent preoperative cardiopulmonary exercise testing to determine peak oxygen uptake ( V ˙ o_2peak ), anaerobic threshold and the ventilatory equivalent for carbon dioxide ( V ˙ e/ V ˙ co₂ ). Cephalic venous blood was assayed for serum C-reactive protein (CRP) and albumin levels, and a full blood count was done. The primary outcome measure was the Morbidity Severity Score (MSS).

RESULTS

One hundred and ninety-eight patients had anatomical resection. A high MSS (Clavien-Dindo grade III or above) was found in 48 patients (24·2 per cent) and was related to an increased CRP concentration (area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) 0·62, P = 0·001) and lower V ˙ o_2peak (AUC 0·36, P = 0·003). Dichotomization of CRP levels (above 10 mg/l) and V ˙ o_2peak (below 18·6 ml per kg per min) yielded adjusted odds ratios (ORs) for a high MSS of 2·86 (P = 0·025) and 2·92 (P = 0·002) respectively. Compared with a cohort with a low Combined Inflammatory and Physiology Score (CIPS), the OR was 1·70 (95 per cent c.i. 0·85 to 3·39) for intermediate and 27·47 (3·12 to 241·69) for high CIPS (P < 0·001).

CONCLUSION

CRP and V ˙ o_2peak were independently associated with major complications after potentially curative oesophagectomy for cancer. A composite risk score identified a group of patients with a high risk of developing complications.

Human postprandial responses to food and potential for precision nutrition

Metabolic responses to food influence risk of cardiometabolic disease, but large-scale high-resolution studies are lacking. We recruited n = 1,002 twins and unrelated healthy adults in the United Kingdom to the PREDICT 1 study and assessed postprandial metabolic responses in a clinical setting and at home. We observed large inter-individual variability (as measured by the population coefficient of variation (s.d./mean, %)) in postprandial responses of blood triglyceride (103%), glucose (68%) and insulin (59%) following identical meals. Person-specific factors, such as gut microbiome, had a greater influence (7.1% of variance) than did meal macronutrients (3.6%) for postprandial lipemia, but not for postprandial glycemia (6.0% and 15.4%, respectively); genetic variants had a modest impact on predictions (9.5% for glucose, 0.8% for triglyceride, 0.2% for C-peptide). Findings were independently validated in a US cohort (n = 100 people). We developed a machine-learning model that predicted both triglyceride (r = 0.47) and glycemic (r = 0.77) responses to food intake. These findings may be informative for developing personalized diet strategies. The ClinicalTrials.gov registration identifier is NCT03479866.

SAT0103 THE EFFECT OF BODYWEIGHT ON RESPONSE TO INTRAVENOUS OR SUBCUTANEOUS TOCILIZUMAB IN PATIENTS WITH RHEUMATOID ARTHRITIS

Background:

Tocilizumab is an IL-6 receptor humanised monoclonal antibody treatment option in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) who have not responded or are intolerant of disease modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (DMARDs) or other biologics. Tocilizumab was available initially as an intravenous (IV) preparation, dosed according to weight, and more recently as a subcutaneous (SC) preparation given at 162mg/weekly irrespective of bodyweight.

Obesity is highly prevalent in RA and there has been concern that starting or switching patients to SC tocilizumab could reduce its effectiveness in those patients with a higher body weight when compared to IV tocilizumab.

Objectives:

To investigate the relationship between bodyweight and DAS28 response at 6 months in tocilizumab naïve RA patients starting IV or SC tocilizumab.

Methods:

The study population comprised RA subjects recruited to the BSRBR-RA up to 30/11/2018 commencing IV or SC tocilizumab for the first time. Patients had to be tocilizumab naïve and have at least one six monthly study follow-up recorded after starting tocilizumab. Baseline characteristics at point of starting tocilizumab are described. Linear regression, fully adjusted for relevant confounders, was used to investigate the relationship between change in DAS28 score from baseline to six months and body weight per ten kilograms (kg), and in a separate analysis, as BMI category. Multiple imputation was used to handle missing data.

Results:

1241 patients starting tocilizumab (902 IV, 339 SC) were eligible for analysis. The median age was 59 years, majority were female, and had median disease duration of 11 years at baseline. Over seventy percent had prior biologic exposure. Median weight was 77kg for IV and 76kg for SC starters, and the majority of patients were categorised as normal weight (30% IV, 37% SC) or pre-obesity (31% IV & SC) according to BMI. Median DAS28 score was 5.8 (IV) and 5.5 (SC) at start of treatment with median improvement after 6-months of 1.50 and 2.02 units respectively. The fully adjusted linear regression model showed no association between body weight or BMI and change in DAS28 score at six months for patients starting IV or SC tocilizumab. (Table).

TableBaseline VariableIntravenous TCZ patients (n=902)Subcutaneous TCZ patients (n=339)Age, median (IQR)58 (50-67)60 (51-70)Gender, n (%) female708 (78)233 (74)Disease duration, median (IQR) years11 (4-21)11 (4-21)DAS28 score, median (IQR)5.8 (5.1-6.6)5.5 (4.7-6.5)Change in DAS28 score, median (IQR)-1.50 (-3.10 - -0.23)-2.02 (-3.72- -0.37)Weight in KGs, median (IQR)77 (64-91)76 (64-88)Change in DAS28, coefficient (95% CI)Body weight per 10kgs*0.04 (-0.01-0.09)-0.005 (-0.11-0.10)BMI category*Normal weightrefrefUnderweight-0.41 (-1.27-0.46)0.08 (-1.62-1.77)Pre-obesity-0.26 (-0.57-0.05)0.02 (-0.44-0.48)Obesity class I, II & III-0.03 (-0.35-0.29)0.08 (-0.40-0.55)

*Fully adjusted for age, gender, disease duration, baseline DAS28 score, baseline HAQ score, co-morbidities, and number of previous biologics

Conclusion:

Data from this study show that body weight does not appear to affect initial response to IV or SC tocilizumab. This is reassuring given that patients are likely to be given SC tocilizumab due to ease of administration and reduced hospital costs.

Disclosure of Interests:

Rebecca Davies: None declared, Arani Vivekanantham: None declared, Mark Lunt: None declared, Kath Watson: None declared, Kimme Hyrich Grant/research support from: Pfizer, UCB, BMS, Speakers bureau: Abbvie, James Bluett: None declared

Taking care of our future doctors: a service evaluation of a medical student mental health service

BACKGROUND

Studies suggest medical students experience high levels of mental distress during training but are less likely, than other students, to access care due to stigma and concerns regarding career progression. In response, The School of Clinical Medicine, University of Cambridge supported the development of the 'Clinical Student Mental Health Service' to provide specialist input for this vulnerable group. This study evaluates the efficiency and effectiveness of this service.

METHODS

Using mixed-methods, cross-sectional analysis of validated psychiatric rating scales and qualitative feedback, 89 responses were analysed from 143 clinical students referred, between 2015 and 2019. The care pathway included initial review by a psychiatrist, who triaged students to psychologists delivering therapies including: Cognitive Behavioural Therapy, Interpersonal Therapy, Eye Movement Desensitization Reprocessing Therapy or Cognitive Analytic Therapy. Efficiency was assessed by waiting times for psychiatry and psychology interventions, and number of sessions. Academic outcomes included school intermission and graduation. Clinical effectiveness was analysed by measuring global distress, depression, anxiety, functioning and suicidal risk. Pre/post intervention changes were captured using t-test and McNemar test with thematic analysis of qualitative feedback.

RESULTS

Referral rates increased from 3.93% (22/560) in 2015 to 6.74% (45/668) in 2018. Median waiting times for initial psychiatric assessment and start of therapy was 26 and 33 days, respectively. All graduating students moved on to work as junior doctors. Levels of distress, (t = 7.73, p < 0.001, df = 31), depression (t = 7.26, p < 0.001, df = 34) anxiety (Z = - 4.63, p < 0.001) and suicide risk (Z = - 3.89, p < 0.001) were significantly reduced. Participant's functioning was significantly improved (p < 0.001, 99.5% CI 4.55 to 14.62). Feedback indicated high satisfaction with the rapid access and flexibility of the service and the team clinicians.

CONCLUSIONS

A significant proportion of medical students attending the service scored highly on validated rating scales measuring emotional distress, suicidality and mental illness. Reassuringly they benefitted from timely specialist mental health input, showing improvements in mental well-being and improved functioning. The development and design of this service might serve as an exemplar for medical schools developing similar support for their students.

Risk of COVID-19 among frontline healthcare workers and the general community: a prospective cohort study

Background

Data for frontline healthcare workers (HCWs) and risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection are limited and whether personal protective equipment (PPE) mitigates this risk is unknown. We evaluated risk for COVID-19 among frontline HCWs compared to the general community and the influence of PPE.

Methods

We performed a prospective cohort study of the general community, including frontline HCWs, who reported information through the COVID Symptom Study smartphone application beginning on March 24 (United Kingdom, U.K.) and March 29 (United States, U.S.) through April 23, 2020. We used Cox proportional hazards modeling to estimate multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) of a positive COVID-19 test.

Findings

Among 2,035,395 community individuals and 99,795 frontline HCWs, we documented 5,545 incident reports of a positive COVID-19 test over 34,435,272 person-days. Compared with the general community, frontline HCWs had an aHR of 11·6 (95% CI: 10·9 to 12·3) for reporting a positive test. The corresponding aHR was 3·40 (95% CI: 3·37 to 3·43) using an inverse probability weighted Cox model adjusting for the likelihood of receiving a test. A symptom-based classifier of predicted COVID-19 yielded similar risk estimates. Compared with HCWs reporting adequate PPE, the aHRs for reporting a positive test were 1·46 (95% CI: 1·21 to 1·76) for those reporting PPE reuse and 1·31 (95% CI: 1·10 to 1·56) for reporting inadequate PPE. Compared with HCWs reporting adequate PPE who did not care for COVID-19 patients, HCWs caring for patients with documented COVID-19 had aHRs for a positive test of 4·83 (95% CI: 3·99 to 5·85) if they had adequate PPE, 5·06 (95% CI: 3·90 to 6·57) for reused PPE, and 5·91 (95% CI: 4·53 to 7·71) for inadequate PPE.

Interpretation

Frontline HCWs had a significantly increased risk of COVID-19 infection, highest among HCWs who reused PPE or had inadequate access to PPE. However, adequate supplies of PPE did not completely mitigate high-risk exposures.

Funding

Zoe Global Ltd., Wellcome Trust, EPSRC, NIHR, UK Research and Innovation, Alzheimer's Society, NIH, NIOSH, Massachusetts Consortium on Pathogen Readiness.

British Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons' National Facial Injury Surveys: hard tissue facial injuries presenting to UK emergency departments

The British Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons (BAOMS) and Saving Faces undertook two national prospective surveys 11 years apart. They recorded the facial injuries treated in UK emergency departments and collected data on 14872 patients. In this paper, which aims to act as a feasibility study for a third national survey of facial injuries, we have reviewed hard-tissue injuries and specifically focused on temporal changes in their morphology. The two sets of directly comparable, categorical, unpaired, cross-sectional data were evaluated independently for statistical significance. In 1997, there were 1977 hard-tissue facial injuries (33%) but in 2008 this had decreased to 1899 (22%) (p<0.05). In 1997, there were 1315 fractures (22%) and 662 dental injuries (11%) compared with 1462 (17%) fractures and 438 (5%) dental injuries in 2008 (p<0.05). There were proportional increases in orbital (21%), nasal (139%), and cranial fractures (340%) (p<0.05). The data showed a small reduction in the total number of hard-tissue injuries, but this was a considerable reduction as a proportion of the total injuries. Analysis of the type and subtype of injury generally pointed towards a reduction in their energy and severity, and to likely changes in mechanism. The project has proved the feasibility of a third national survey of facial injury.

Integrating Metagenomic Information into Personalized Nutrition Tools: The PREDICT I Study (P20-005-19)

Objectives

The existence of a link between the intestinal microbiome and diet is well established. The demonstration that the microbiome information increases the prediction accuracy of postprandial blood glucose levels (Zeevi et al, 2015) is opening intriguing perspectives for developing personalized nutrition tools. However, reproducibly inferring the diet-induced microbiome changes and stratifying individual responses to dietary interventions based on the microbiome remain open challenges. The PREDICT I study aims to develop: (i) a protocol for gut microbiome sampling and analysis for large-scale nutritional studies and (ii) a microbiome-based machine learning integrative component for predictive personalized nutrition tools.

Methods

We performed three metagenomic investigations to; (i) identify the best combination for stool collection, sample storage, DNA extraction, and sequencing (n = 45); (ii) develop and validate the computational pipeline on an exploratory dietary interventional cohort (n = 1000); (iii) apply the validated pipeline on an independent validation cohort (n = 100). The generated total dataset (>8x10^12 sequenced bases) was analyzed with existing and newly developed computational tools and integrated with the metagenomic profiles of >10,000 samples processed from public repositories.

Results

Our resulting validated protocol involves a minimally time-demanding procedure for at-home sample collection, sample storage in a preservation buffer, and DNA extraction with a recently commercialized kit (Qiagen). Metagenomic sequencing proved substantially more accurate than 16S rRNA sequencing and was able to perfectly capture subject-specific strain-level features with longitudinal sampling. This method was also able to stratify by pre-intervention habitual dietary regimes. Our prediction algorithm showed that embedding the microbiome features in a 50-dimension space was sufficient to improve the prediction performance of postprandial blood glucose levels.

Conclusions

We present the largest investigation to date on the reproducible connections between the gut microbiome and dietary interventions. Further we describe our methods and results in using the microbiome as a component of a precise integrated postprandial blood glucose and blood lipid level predictor.

Funding Sources

Zoe Global Limited, National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), Wellcome Trust.

Single Cell Based Phosphorylation Profiling Identifies Alterations in Toll-Like Receptor 7 and 9 Signaling in Patients With Primary Sjögren's Syndrome

Primary Sjögren's syndrome (pSS) is associated with polymorphisms and mRNA expression profiles that are indicative of an exaggerated innate and type I IFN immune response. Excessive activation potential of signaling pathways may play a role in this profile, but the intracellular signaling profile of the disease is not well characterized. To gain insights into potentially dysfunctional intracellular signaling profiles of pSS patients we conducted an exploratory analysis of MAPK/ERK and JAK/STAT signaling networks in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) from 25 female pSS patients and 25 female age-matched healthy donors using phospho-specific flow cytometry. We analyzed unstimulated samples, as well as samples during a 4 h time period following activation of Toll-like receptor (TLR) 7 and 9. Expression levels of MxA, IFI44, OAS1, GBP1, and GBP2 in PBMC were analyzed by real-time PCR. Cytokine levels in plasma were determined using a 25-plex Luminex-assay. Principal component analysis (PCA) showed that basal phosphorylation profiles could be used to differentiate pSS patients from healthy donor samples by stronger intracellular signaling pathway activation in NK and T cells relative to B cells. Stimulation of PBMC with TLR7 and -9 ligands showed significant differences in the phosphorylation profiles between samples from pSS patients and healthy donors. Including clinical parameters such as extraglandular manifestations (EGM), we observed stronger responses of NF-κB and STAT3 S727 in B cells from EGM-negative patients compared to EGM-positive patients and healthy controls. Plasma cytokine levels were correlated to the basal phosphorylation levels in these patients. In addition, 70% of the patients had a positive IFN score. These patients differed from the IFN score negative patients regarding their phosphorylation profiles and their plasma cytokine levels. In conclusion, we here report increased signaling potentials in peripheral B cells of pSS patients in response to TLR7 and -9 stimulation through STAT3 S727 and NF-κB that correlate with a type I IFN signature. Induction of these pathways could contribute to the generation of a type I IFN signature in pSS. Patients displaying elevated potentiation of STAT3 S727 and NF-κB signaling could therefore benefit from therapies targeting these pathways.

Characterization of cardiovascular clinical events and impact of event adjudication on the treatment effect of darapladib versus placebo in patients with stable coronary heart disease: Insights from the STABILITY trial

BACKGROUND

Clinical Endpoint Classification (CEC) in clinical trials allows FOR standardized, systematic, blinded, and unbiased adjudication of investigator-reported events. We quantified the agreement rates in the STABILITY trial on 15,828 patients with stable coronary heart disease.

METHODS

Investigators were instructed to report all potential events. Each reported event was reviewed independently by 2 reviewers according to prespecified processes and prespecified end point definitions. Concordance between reported and adjudicated cardiovascular (CV) events was evaluated, as well as event classification influence on final study results.

RESULTS

In total, CEC reviewed 7,096 events: 1,064 deaths (696 CV deaths), 958 myocardial infarctions (MI), 433 strokes, 182 transient ischemic attacks, 2,052 coronary revascularizations, 1,407 hospitalizations for unstable angina, and 967 hospitalizations for heart failure. In total, 71.8% events were confirmed by CEC. Concordance was high (>80%) for cause of death and nonfatal MI and lower for hospitalization for unstable angina (25%) and heart failure (50%). For the primary outcome (composite of CV death, MI, and stroke), investigators reported 2,086 events with 82.5% confirmed by CEC. The STABILITY trial treatment effect of darapladib versus placebo on the primary outcome was consistent using investigator-reported events (hazard ratio 0.96 [95% CI 0.87-1.06]) or adjudicated events (hazard ratio 0.94 [95% CI 0.85-1.03]).

CONCLUSIONS

The primary outcome results of the STABILITY trial were consistent whether using investigator-reported or CEC-adjudicated events. The proportion of investigator-reported events confirmed by CEC varied by type of event. These results should help improve event identification in clinical trials to optimize ascertainment and adjudication.