Association Between Filgrastim Biosimilar Availability and Changes in Claim Payments and Patient Out-of-Pocket Costs for Biologic Filgrastim Products

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the effect of filgrastim-sndz market entry on patient out-of-pocket costs and claim payments for filgrastim products.

METHODS

This study used a single interrupted time series design with longitudinal, nationally representative, individual-level claims data from IBM MarketScan. Analyses included all outpatient and prescription claims for branded filgrastim (filgrastim and tbo-filgrastim) and biosimilar filgrastim (filgrastim-sndz) from January 1, 2014, to December 31, 2017. Outcomes of interest included changes in monthly claim payments and monthly patient out-of-pocket costs for filgrastim products.

RESULTS

In the baseline period (January 2014 to February 2016), insurers paid an average of $472.21 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 465.38-479.03) for 480 mcg of branded filgrastim, whereas patients paid an average of $49.26 (CI: 34.25-64.27). Filgrastim-sndz market entry was associated with a statistically significant and immediate 1-month decrease in insurer payment of $30.77 (95% CI: -40.59 to -20.94) and a significant decrease in monthly insurer payment trend of $3.10 per month (95% CI: -3.90 to -2.31) relative to baseline. Long-term changes in patient out-of-pocket costs were modest and restricted to beneficiaries enrolled in high cost sharing plans.

CONCLUSIONS

Biosimilar filgrastim availability led to significant immediate and long-term decreases in claims payments for filgrastim products, supporting efforts to facilitate biosimilar adoption in the United States. Nevertheless, there were only slight changes in patient out-of-pocket costs, restricted to beneficiaries enrolled in high cost sharing plans, suggesting the importance of further work assessing the relationship between biosimilar availability and patient out-of-pocket costs.

Projected Utility of Pharmacogenomic Testing Among Individuals Hospitalized With COVID-19: A Retrospective Multicenter Study in the United States

Many academic institutions are collecting blood samples from patients seeking treatment for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) to build research biorepositories. It may be feasible to extract pharmacogenomic (PGx) information from biorepositories for clinical use. We sought to characterize the potential value of multigene PGx testing among individuals hospitalized with COVID‐19 in the United States. We performed a cross‐sectional analysis of electronic health records from consecutive individuals hospitalized with COVID‐19 at a large, urban academic health system. We characterized medication orders, focusing on medications with actionable PGx guidance related to 14 commonly assayed genes (CYP2C19, CYP2C9, CYP2D6, CYP3A5, DPYD, G6PD, HLA‐A, HLA‐B, IFNL3, NUDT15, SLCO1B1, TPMT, UGT1A1, and VKORC1). A simulation analysis combined medication data with population phenotype frequencies to estimate how many treatment modifications would be enabled if multigene PGx results were available. Sixty‐four unique medications with PGx guidance were ordered at least once in the cohort (n = 1,852, mean age 60.1 years). Nearly nine in 10 individuals (89.7%) had at least one order for a medication with PGx guidance and 427 patients (23.1%) had orders for 4 or more actionable medications. Using a simulation, we estimated that 17 treatment modifications per 100 patients would be enabled if PGx results were available. The genes CYP2D6 and CYP2C19 were responsible for the majority of treatment modifications, and the medications most often affected were ondansetron, oxycodone, and clopidogrel. PGx results would be relevant for nearly all individuals hospitalized with COVID‐19 and would provide the opportunity to improve clinical care.

The Evolving Overdose Epidemic: Synthetic Opioids and Rising Stimulant-Related Harms

The opioid overdose epidemic is typically described as having occurred in 3 waves, with morbidity and mortality accruing over time principally from prescription opioids (1999-2010), heroin (2011-2013), and illicit fentanyl and other synthetic opioids (2014-present). However, the increasing presence of synthetic opioids mixed into the illicit drug supply, including with stimulants such as cocaine and methamphetamine, as well as rising stimulant-related deaths, reflects the rapidly evolving nature of the overdose epidemic, posing urgent and novel public health challenges. We synthesize the evidence underlying these trends, consider key questions such as where and how concomitant exposure to fentanyl and stimulants is occurring, and identify actions for key stakeholders regarding how these emerging threats, and continued evolution of the overdose epidemic, can best be addressed.

Modeling Mitigation Strategies to Reduce Opioid-Related Morbidity and Mortality in the US

IMPORTANCE

The US opioid epidemic is complex and dynamic, yet relatively little is known regarding its likely future impact and the potential mitigating impact of interventions to address it.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the future burden of the opioid epidemic and the potential of interventions to address the burden.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A decision analytic dynamic Markov model was calibrated using 2010-2018 data from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, the US Census, and National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions-III. Data on individuals 12 years or older from the US general population or with prescription opioid medical use; prescription opioid nonmedical use; heroin use; prescription, heroin, or combined prescription and heroin opioid use disorder (OUD); 1 of 7 treatment categories; or nonfatal or fatal overdose were examined. The model was designed to project fatal opioid overdoses between 2020 and 2029.

EXPOSURES

The model projected prescribing reductions (5% annually), naloxone distribution (assumed 5% reduction in case-fatality), and treatment expansion (assumed 35% increase in uptake annually for 4 years and 50% relapse reduction), with each compared vs status quo.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Projected 10-year overdose deaths and prevalence of OUD.

RESULTS

Under status quo, 484 429 (95% confidence band, 390 543-576 631) individuals were projected to experience fatal opioid overdose between 2020 and 2029. Projected decreases in deaths were 0.3% with prescribing reductions, 15.4% with naloxone distribution, and 25.3% with treatment expansion; when combined, these interventions were associated with 179 151 fewer overdose deaths (37.0%) over 10 years. Interventions had a smaller association with the prevalence of OUD; for example, the combined intervention was estimated to reduce OUD prevalence by 27.5%, from 2.47 million in 2019 to 1.79 million in 2029. Model projections were most sensitive to assumptions regarding future rates of fatal and nonfatal overdose.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The findings of this study suggest that the opioid epidemic is likely to continue to cause tens of thousands of deaths annually over the next decade. Aggressive deployment of evidence-based interventions may reduce deaths by at least a third but will likely have less impact for the number of people with OUD.

Hyperkalemia and Acute Kidney Injury with Spironolactone Use Among Patients with Heart Failure

OBJECTIVE

To quantify the risk of hyperkalemia and acute kidney injury (AKI) when spironolactone use is added on to loop diuretic use among patients with heart failure, and to evaluate whether the risk is modified by level of kidney function.

METHODS

We identified 17,110 patients with heart failure treated with loop diuretics between January 1, 2004, and December 31, 2016 within the Geisinger Health System. We estimated the incidence of hyperkalemia and AKI associated with spironolactone initiation, and used target trial emulation methods to minimize confounding by indication.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up of 134 mo, 3229 of 17,110 patients (18.9%) initiated spironolactone. Incidence rates of hyperkalemia and AKI in patients using spironolactone with a loop diuretic were 2.9 and 10.1 events per 1000 person-months, respectively. In propensity score-matched analyses, spironolactone initiation was associated with higher hyperkalemia and AKI risk compared with loop alone (hazard ratio, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.35 to 2.10; P<.001, and hazard ratio, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.26; P=.04, respectively). There were no differences in the relative risk of either outcome associated with spironolactone by level of kidney function.

CONCLUSION

The addition of spironolactone to loop diuretics in patients with heart failure was associated with higher risk of hyperkalemia and AKI; these risks must be weighed against the potential benefits of spironolactone.

Dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors and cardiovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes, without cardiovascular or renal disease

Background

Cardiovascular safety of dipeptidyl peptidase-IV inhibitors (DPP-4i) in patients without cardiovascular or renal disease, a majority of newly diagnosed patients with type 2 diabetes often excluded from clinical trials on this association, is poorly understood. Thus, we investigate the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) associated with DPP-4i in low-risk patients with diabetes

Methods

Using a new-user retrospective cohort derived from IBM MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounters (2010–2015), we identified patients aged 35–65 with type 2 diabetes, without cardiovascular or renal disease, initiating DPP-4i, sulfonylureas, or metformin. Primary composite outcome of time to first MACE was defined as the first of any of the following: myocardial infarction, cardiac arrest, coronary artery bypass graft, coronary angioplasty, heart failure, and stroke. Secondary outcomes were time to first heart failure, acute myocardial infarction, and stroke. We compared outcomes for DPP-4i versus sulfonylurea and DPP-4i versus metformin using propensity score weighted Cox proportional hazards, adjusting for demographics, baseline comorbidities, concomitant medications, and cumulative exposure.

Results

Of 445,701 individuals, 236,431 (53.0%) were male, median age was 51 (interquartile range: [44, 57]), 30,267 (6.79%) initiated DPP-4i, 52,138 (11.70%) initiated sulfonylureas, and 367,908 (82.55%) initiated metformin. After adjustment, DPP-4i was associated with lower risk of MACE than sulfonylurea (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 0.87; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.78–0.98), and similar risk to metformin (aHR = 1.07; 95% CI: 0.97–1.18). Risk for acute myocardial infarction (aHR = 0.70; 95% CI: 0.51–0.96), stroke (aHR = 0.57; 95% CI: 0.41–0.79), and heart failure (aHR = 0.57; 95% CI: 0.41–0.79) with DPP-4i was lower compared to sulfonylureas.

Conclusion

Our findings show that for this cohort of low-risk patients newly treated for type 2 diabetes, DPP-4i exhibited 13% lower risk for MACE compared to sulfonylureas and similar risk for MACE compared to metformin, suggesting DPP-4i is a low cardiovascular risk option for low-risk patients initiating antihyperglycemic treatment.

Integrating E-Prescribing and Pharmacy Claims Data for Predictive Modeling: Comparing Costs and Utilization of Health Plan Members Who Fill Their Initial Medications with Those Who Do Not

BACKGROUND

Nonfilling of prescribed medications is a worldwide problem of serious concern. Studies of health care costs and utilization associated with medication nonadherence frequently rely on claims data and usually focus on patients with specific conditions. Past studies also have little agreement on whether higher medication costs associated with higher adherence can reduce downstream health care consumption.

OBJECTIVES

To (a) compare the characteristics between people with and without complete medication initiations from a general population and (b) quantify the effect of medication initiation on health care utilization and expenditures with propensity score weighting.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study using 2012 and 2013 electronic health records (EHR) and insurance claims data from an integrated health care delivery network. We included 43,097 eligible primary care patients in the study. Annual medication fill rates of initial prescriptions in 2012 were defined as the number of filled prescriptions from claims divided by the number of e-prescriptions from EHRs, while excluding all refills. A claim was considered filled if (a) EHR and claims records were from the same drug class; (b) claims occurred between the date of a current EHR order and that of the next EHR order of the same class; and (c) the maximum fill rate was 100%. The 6 annual outcomes included total costs, medical costs, pharmacy costs, being a high-cost "outlier" (in top 5%), having 1 or more hospitalizations, and having 1 or more emergency department (ED) visits. Individuals were classified as either having completed all medication initiations (100% annual filling rate for initiations) or not. We used propensity score weighting to control for baseline differences between complete and incomplete initial fillers. We adopted linear and logistic regressions to model costs and binary utilization indicators for the same year (concurrently) and next year (prospectively).

RESULTS

Approximately 42% of the study sample had complete medication initiations (100% filling rate), while the remaining 58% had incomplete initiations. Individuals who fully filled initial prescriptions had lower comorbidity burden and consumed fewer health care resources. After applying propensity score weighting and controlling for variables such as the number of prescription orders, patients with complete medication initiations had lower overall and medical costs, concurrently and prospectively (e.g., $751 and $252 less for annual total costs). Complete medication initiation fillers were also less likely to have concurrent health care utilization (OR = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.68-0.90 for hospitalization; OR = 0.77, 95% CI = 0.72-0.82 for ED admissions) but no difference in prospective utilization other than for ED visits (OR = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.87-0.99).

CONCLUSIONS

Identifying the subpopulation of patients with incomplete medication initiations (i.e., filling less than 100% of initial prescriptions) is a pragmatic approach for population health management programs to align resources and potentially contain cost and utilization.

DISCLOSURES

No outside funding supported this study. This study applied the Adjusted Clinical Group (ACG) case-mix/risk adjustment methodology, developed at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Although ACGs are an important aspect of this study, the goal of the study was not to directly assess or evaluate the methodology. The Johns Hopkins University receives royalties for nonacademic use of software based on the ACG methodology. Chang, Kharrazi, and Weiner receive a portion of their salary support from this revenue. Chang is also a part-time consultant for Monument Analytics, a health care consultancy whose clients include the life sciences industry, as well as plaintiffs in opioid litigation. Alexander is past Chair of FDA's Peripheral and Central Nervous System Advisory Committee; has served as a paid advisor to IQVIA; is a co-founding Principal and equity holder in Monument Analytics; and is a member of OptumRx's National P&T Committee. These arrangements have been reviewed and approved by Johns Hopkins University in accordance with its conflict of interest policies. The other authors have nothing to disclose.

Use and Content of Primary Care Office-Based vs Telemedicine Care Visits During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the US

Importance

Little is known about the association between the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the level and content of primary care delivery in the US.

Objective

To quantify national changes in the volume, type, and content of primary care delivered during the COVID-19 pandemic, especially with regard to office-based vs telemedicine encounters.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Analysis of serial cross-sectional data from the IQVIA National Disease and Therapeutic Index, a 2-stage, stratified nationally representative audit of outpatient care in the US from the first calendar quarter (Q1) of 2018 to the second calendar quarter (Q2) of 2020.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Visit type (office-based or telemedicine), overall and stratified by patient population and geographic region; assessment of blood pressure or cholesterol measurement; and initiation or continuation of prescription medications.

Results

In the 8 calendar quarters between January 1, 2018, and December 31, 2019, between 122.4 million (95% CI, 117.3-127.5 million) and 130.3 million (95% CI, 124.7-135.9 million) quarterly primary care visits occurred in the US (mean, 125.8 million; 95% CI, 121.7-129.9 million), most of which were office-based (92.9%). In 2020, the total number of encounters decreased to 117.9 million (95% CI, 112.6-123.2 million) in Q1 and 99.3 million (95% CI, 94.9-103.8 million) in Q2, a decrease of 21.4% (27.0 million visits) from the average of Q2 levels during 2018 and 2019. Office-based visits decreased 50.2% (59.1 million visits) in Q2 of 2020 compared with Q2 2018-2019, while telemedicine visits increased from 1.1% of total Q2 2018-2019 visits (1.4 million quarterly visits) to 4.1% in Q1 of 2020 (4.8 million visits) and 35.3% in Q2 of 2020 (35.0 million visits). Decreases occurred in blood pressure level assessment (50.1% decrease, 44.4 million visits) and cholesterol level assessment (36.9% decrease, 10.2 million visits) in Q2 of 2020 compared with Q2 2018-2019 levels, and assessment was less common during telemedicine than during office-based visits (9.6% vs 69.7% for blood pressure; P < .001; 13.5% vs 21.6% for cholesterol; P < .001). New medication visits in Q2 of 2020 decreased by 26.0% (14.1 million visits) from Q2 2018-2019 levels. Telemedicine adoption occurred at similar rates among White individuals and Black individuals (19.3% vs 20.5% of patient visits, respectively, in Q1/Q2 of 2020), varied by region (low of 15.1% of visits [East North Central region], high of 26.8% of visits [Pacific region]), and was not correlated with regional COVID-19 burden.

Conclusions and Relevance

The COVID-19 pandemic has been associated with changes in the structure of primary care delivery, with the content of telemedicine visits differing from that of office-based encounters.

An Epidemic in the Midst of a Pandemic: Opioid Use Disorder and COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic is a particularly grave risk to the millions of Americans with opioid use disorder, who—already vulnerable and marginalized—are heavily dependent on face-to-face health care delivery. These authors propose rapid and coordinated action on the part of clinicians and policymakers to mitigate risks of disrupted care for these patients.

Healthcare Utilization and Costs of Systemic Lupus Erythematosus by Disease Severity in the United States

OBJECTIVE

To quantify healthcare utilization and costs by disease severity for patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in the United States.

METHODS

We conducted descriptive analyses of Humedica electronic health record (EHR) data from 2011 to 2015 (utilization analysis) and integrated Optum administrative claims/Humedica EHR data from 2012 to 2015 (cost analysis) for patients with SLE. All-cause utilization outcomes examined were hospitalizations, outpatient visits, emergency department (ED) visits, and prescription drug use. Analyses of costs stratified by disease severity were limited to patients enrolled in an Optum-participating health insurance plan for ≥ 1 year after the earliest observed SLE diagnosis date. Costs were converted to 2016 US dollars (US$).

RESULTS

Healthcare utilization was evaluated in 17,257 patients with SLE. Averaged over the 2011-2015 study period, 13.7% of patients had ≥ 1 hospitalization per year, 25.7% had ≥ 1 ED visit, and 94.4% had ≥ 1 outpatient visit. Utilization patterns were generally similar across each year studied. Annually, 88.0% of patients had ≥ 1 prescription, including 1.3% who used biologics. Biologic treatment doubled between 2011 (0.7%) and 2015 (1.4%). Cost analyses included 397 patients. From 2012 to 2015, patients with severe SLE had mean annual costs of $52,951, compared with $28,936 and $21,052 for patients with moderate and mild SLE, respectively. Patients with severe SLE had increased costs in all service categories: inpatient, ED, clinic/office visits, and pharmacy.

CONCLUSION

Patients from the US with SLE, especially individuals with moderate or severe disease, utilize significant healthcare resources and incur high medical costs.

Cigarette excise taxes, clean indoor air laws, and use of smoking cessation treatments: A mediation analysis

The role of smoking cessation treatments in the link between clean indoor air laws and cigarette taxes with smoking cessation is not known. This study examined whether the use of smoking cessation treatments mediates the association between clean indoor air laws and cigarette excise taxes, on the one hand, and recent smoking cessation, on the other hand. Using data on 62,165 adult participants in the 2003 and 2010-2011 Current Population Survey-Tobacco Use Supplement who reported smoking cigarettes in the past year, we employed structural equation models to quantify the degree to which smoking cessation treatments (prescription medications, nicotine replacement therapy, counseling/support groups, quitlines, and internet-based resources) mediate the association between clean indoor air laws, cigarette excise taxes and recent smoking cessation. Recent smoking cessation was associated with clean indoor air laws in 2003 and with both clean indoor air laws and excise taxes in 2010-2011. Smoking cessation treatments explained between 29% to 39% of the effect of clean indoor air laws and taxes on recent smoking cessation. While clean indoor air laws remained significantly associated with the recent smoking cessation over the first decade of the 2000s, excise taxes gained a more prominent role in later years of that decade. The influence of these policies was partly mediated through the use of smoking cessation treatments, underscoring the importance of policies that make these treatments more widely available.

Implementation and enforcement of state opioid prescribing laws

BACKGROUND

In response to the role overprescribing has played in the U.S. opioid crisis, in the past decade states have enacted four main types of laws to curb opioid prescribing: mandatory prescription drug monitoring program (PDMP) enrollment laws requiring clinicians to register with a PDMP; mandatory PDMP query laws requiring clinicians to check a PDMP prior to prescribing opioids; pill mill laws regulating pain management clinics; and opioid prescribing cap laws limiting the dose/duration of opioid prescriptions. While 47 states now have one or more of these laws in place, little is known about implementation and enforcement strategies, facilitators, and barriers.

METHODS

From November 2017 to February 2019, we interviewed 114 professionals involved in state opioid prescribing law implementation and enforcement in 20 states and identified common themes.

RESULTS

Implementation efforts focused on awareness campaigns and targeted training of key front-line implementers. Enforcement strategies included active, complaint-based, and automated strategies. Collaboration across agencies and stakeholders, particularly health agencies and law enforcement, was identified as an important facilitator of implementation and enforcement. Two key interrelated barriers were identified: the complexity of state opioid prescribing laws in terms of which providers, patients, and prescriptions they applied to, and IT infrastructure.

CONCLUSION

Despite differing approaches, our findings suggest similar barriers to implementation and enforcement across state opioid prescribing laws. Strategies are needed to ease implementation and enforcement of laws that apply only to specific sub-sets of providers, patients, or prescriptions and address issues of access and data utilization of the PDMP.

Variation in the estimated costs of pivotal clinical benefit trials supporting the US approval of new therapeutic agents, 2015-2017: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES

Little is routinely disclosed about the costs of the pivotal clinical trials that provide the key scientific evidence of the treatment benefits of new therapeutic agents. We expand our earlier research to examine why the estimated costs may vary 100-fold.

DESIGN

A cross-sectional study of the estimated costs of the pivotal clinical trials supporting the approval of 101 new therapeutic agents approved by the US Food and Drug Administration from 2015 to 2017.

METHODS

We licensed a software tool used by the pharmaceutical industry to estimate the likely costs of clinical trials to be conducted by contract research organisations. For each trial we collected 52 study characteristics. Linear regression was used to assess the most important factors affecting costs.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The mean and 95% CI of 225 pivotal clinical trials using varying assumptions. We also assessed median estimated costs per patient, per clinic visit and per drug.

RESULTS

Measured as pivotal trials cost per approved drug, the 101 new molecular entities had an estimated median cost of US$48 million (IQR US$20 million-US$102 million). The 225 individual clinical trials had a median estimate of US$19 million (IQR US$12 million-US$33 million) per trial and US$41 413 (IQR, US$29 894-US$75 047) per patient. The largest single factor driving cost was the number of patients required to establish the treatment effects and varied from 4 patients to 8442. Next was the number of trial clinic visits, which ranged from 2 to 166. Our statistical model showed trial costs rose exponentially with these two variables (R2=0.696, F=257.9, p<0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

The estimated costs are modest for measuring the benefits of new therapeutic agents but rise exponentially as more patients and clinic visits are required to establish a drug effect.

Characteristics of registered clinical trials assessing treatments for COVID-19: a cross-sectional analysis

OBJECTIVES

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has prompted many initiatives to identify safe and efficacious treatments, yet little is known regarding where early efforts have focused. We aimed to characterise registered clinical trials assessing drugs or plasma treatments for COVID-19.

DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Cross-sectional analysis of clinical trials for the treatment of COVID-19 that were registered in the USA or in countries contributing to the WHO's International Clinical Trials Registry Platform. Relevant trial entries of drugs or plasma were downloaded on 26 March 2020, deduplicated, verified with reviews of major medical journals and WHO websites and independently analysed by two reviewers.

MAIN OUTCOMES

Trial intervention, sponsorship, critical design elements and specified outcomes RESULTS: Overall, 201 clinical trials were registered for testing the therapeutic benefits of 92 drugs or plasma, including 64 in monotherapy and 28 different combinations. Only eight (8.7%) products or combinations involved new molecular entities. The other test therapies had a wide range of prior medical uses, including as antivirals, antimalarials, immunosuppressants and oncology treatments. In 152 trials (75.7%), patients were randomised to treatment or comparator, including 55 trials with some form of blinding and 97 open-label studies. The 49 (24.4%) of trials without a randomised design included 29 single armed studies and 20 trials with some comparison group. Most trial designs featured multiple endpoints. Clinical endpoints were identified in 134 (66.7%) of trials and included COVID-19 symptoms, death, recovery, required intensive care and hospital discharge. Clinical scales were being used in 33 (16.4%) trials, most often measures of oxygenation and critical illness. Surrogate endpoints or biomarkers were studied in 88 (42.3%) of trials, primarily assays of viral load. Although the trials were initiated in more than 17 countries or regions, 100 (49.8%) were registered in China and 78 (37.8%) in the USA. Registered trials increased rapidly, with the number of registered trials doubling from 1 March to 26 March 2020.

CONCLUSIONS

While accelerating morbidity and mortality from the COVID-19 pandemic has been paralleled by early and rapid clinical investigation, many trials lack features to optimise their scientific value. Global coordination and increased funding of high-quality research may help to maximise scientific progress in rapidly discovering safe and effective treatments.

Association between sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors and lower extremity amputation: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

The association between sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i’s) and lower extremity amputation is unclear.

Purpose

To systematically review randomized control trials (RCTs) and observational studies quantifying risk of lower extremity amputations associated with SGLT2i use.

Data sources and study selection

We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials from January 2011 to February 2020 for RCTs and observational studies including lower extremity amputation outcomes for individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus treated with SGLT2i’s vs. alternative treatments or placebo.

Data extraction and synthesis

Two reviewers independently extracted data.

Main outcomes and measures

Our primary outcome was risk of lower limb amputation. Secondary outcomes included peripheral arterial disease, peripheral vascular disease, venous ulcerations, and diabetic foot infections. We also evaluated the risk of bias. We conducted random and fixed effects relative risk meta-analysis of RCTs.

Results

After screening 2,006 studies, 12 RCTs and 18 observational studies were included, of which 7 RCTs and 18 observational studies had at least one event. The random effects meta-analysis of 7 RCTs suggested the absence of a statistically significant association between SGLT2i exposure with evidence of substantial statistical heterogeneity (n = 424/23,716 vs n = 267/18,737 in controls; RR 1.28, CI’s 0.93–1.76; I² = 62.0%; p = 0.12) whereas fixed effects analysis showed an increased risk with statistical heterogeneity (RR 1.27, 1.09–1.48; I² = 62%; p = 0.003). Subgroup analysis of canagliflozin vs placebo showed a statistically significantly increased risk in a fixed effects meta-analysis (n = 2 RCTs, RR 1.59, 1.26–2.01; I² = 88%; p = 0.0001) whereas the meta-analysis of dapagliflozin or empagliflozin (n = 2 RCTs each) and a single RCT for ertugliflozin did not show a significantly increased risk. The findings from observational studies were too heterogeneous to be pooled in a meta-analysis and draw meaningful conclusions. Both randomized and observational studies were of generally good methodological quality.

Conclusions

Overall, there was no consistent evidence of SGLT2i exposure and increased risk of amputation. The increased risk of amputation seen in the large, long-term Canagliflozin Cardiovascular Assessment Study (CANVAS) trial for canagliflozin, and select observational studies, merits continued exploration.

Association between organ damage and mortality in systemic lupus erythematosus: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

At least half of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) develop organ damage as a consequence of autoimmune disease or long-term therapeutic steroid use. This study synthesised evidence on the association between organ damage and mortality in patients with SLE.

DESIGN

Systematic review and meta-analysis.

METHODS

Electronic searches were performed in PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library and Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature for observational (cohort, case-control and cross-sectional) studies published between January 2000 and February 2017. Included studies reported HRs or ORs on the association between organ damage (measured by the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index (SDI) score) and mortality. Study quality was assessed using the modified Newcastle-Ottawa assessment. Pooled HRs were obtained using the DerSimonian and Laird random-effects model. Heterogeneity was assessed using the Cochrane Q (Q) and I² statistics.

RESULTS

The search yielded 10 420 articles, from which 21 longitudinal studies were selected. Most studies (85%) were of high quality. For 10 studies evaluating organ damage (SDI) as a continuous variable and reporting HR as a measure of association, a 1-unit increase in SDI was associated with increased mortality; pooled HR was 1.34 (95% CI: 1.24 to 1.44, p<0.001; Q p=0.027, I²=52.1%). Exclusion of one potential outlying study reduced heterogeneity with minimal impact on pooled HR (1.33 (95% CI: 1.25 to 1.42), p<0.001, Q p=0.087, I²=42.0%). The 11 remaining studies, although they could not be aggregated because of their varying patient populations and analyses, consistently demonstrated that greater SDI was associated with increased mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Organ damage in SLE is consistently associated with increased mortality across studies from various countries. Modifying the disease course with effective therapies and steroid-sparing regimens may reduce organ damage, improve outcomes and decrease mortality for patients with SLE.

Association Between Renin-Angiotensin System Blockade Discontinuation and All-Cause Mortality Among Persons With Low Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate

IMPORTANCE

It is uncertain whether and when angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACE-I) and angiotensin II receptor blocker (ARB) treatment should be discontinued in individuals with low estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR).

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association of ACE-I or ARB therapy discontinuation after eGFR decreases to below 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 with the risk of mortality, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), and end-stage kidney disease (ESKD).

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This retrospective, propensity score-matched cohort study included 3909 patients from an integrated health care system that served rural areas of central and northeastern Pennsylvania. Patients who initiated ACE-I or ARB therapy from January 1, 2004, to December 31, 2018, and had an eGFR decrease to below 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 during therapy were enrolled, with follow-up until January 25, 2019.

EXPOSURES

Individuals were classified based on whether they discontinued ACE-I or ARB therapy within 6 months after an eGFR decrease to below 30 mL/min/1.73 m2.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The association between ACE-I or ARB therapy discontinuation and mortality during the subsequent 5 years was assessed using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models, adjusting for patient characteristics at the time of the eGFR decrease in a propensity score-matched sample. Secondary outcomes included MACE and ESKD.

RESULTS

Of the 3909 individuals receiving ACE-I or ARB treatment who experienced an eGFR decrease to below 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 (2406 [61.6%] female; mean [SD] age, 73.7 [12.6] years), 1235 discontinued ACE-I or ARB therapy within 6 months after the eGFR decrease and 2674 did not discontinue therapy. A total of 434 patients (35.1%) who discontinued ACE-I or ARB therapy and 786 (29.4%) who did not discontinue therapy died during a median follow-up of 2.9 years (interquartile range, 1.3-5.0 years). In the propensity score-matched sample of 2410 individuals, ACE-I or ARB therapy discontinuation was associated with a higher risk of mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.39; 95% CI, 1.20-1.60]) and MACE (HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.20-1.56), but no statistically significant difference in the risk of ESKD was found (HR, 1.19; 95% CI, 0.86-1.65).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The findings suggest that continuing ACE-I or ARB therapy in patients with declining kidney function may be associated with cardiovascular benefit without excessive harm of ESKD.

Association of Formulary Exclusions and Restrictions for Opioid Alternatives With Opioid Prescribing Among Medicare Beneficiaries

IMPORTANCE

Although there are many pharmacologic alternatives to opioids, it is unclear whether the structure of Medicare Part D formularies discourages use of the alternatives.

OBJECTIVES

To quantify the coverage of opioid alternatives and prevalence of prior authorization, step therapy, quantity limits, and tier placement for these drugs, and test whether these formulary exclusions and restrictions are associated with increased opioid prescribing to older adults at the county level.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

County fixed-effect models were estimated using a panel of counties across the 50 US states and the District of Columbia over calendar years 2015 and 2016. Data analysis was conducted from July 1 to September 23, 2019. The sample included 2721 counties in 2015 and 2671 counties in 2016 with sufficient data on Medicare Part D formulary design and opioid prescribing.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

County-level opioid prescribing rate (number of opioid claims divided by the number of overall claims) and counts of excluded opioid alternatives and opioid alternatives with prior authorization, step therapy, quantity limits, and high-tier placements.

RESULTS

A total of 30 nonopioid analgesics were examined across 28 997 Medicare plans in 2015 and 30 390 plans in 2016. Medicare plans did not cover a mean of 7% of these drugs (interquartile range, 10%; lower to upper limit, 0%-23%). Among covered nonopioids, prior authorization and step therapy were uncommon, with fewer than 5% affected by prior authorization and 0% by step therapy. However, 13% of covered nonopioids had quantity limits (interquartile range, 10%; lower to upper limit, 0%-31%) and 22% were in high-cost tiers (interquartile range, 38%; lower to upper limit, 0%-50%). Increases in the number of nonopioids excluded on Medicare plans in a county were associated with increased opioid prescribing (effect size relative to mean, 2.2%-3.7%; P = .004). Conversely, increases in the number of opioids not covered on Medicare plans in a county was found to be associated with decreased opioid prescribing (effect size relative to mean, 0.8%-1.5%; P = .02). None of the utilization management strategies (prior authorization, step therapy, and quantity limits) examined or high-cost tier placements of nonopioids were associated with increased opioid prescribing.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Lack of Medicare coverage for pharmacologic alternatives to opioids may be associated with increased opioid prescribing.

Estimated costs of pivotal trials for U.S. Food and Drug Administration-approved cancer drugs, 2015-2017

BACKGROUND

Pivotal clinical trials provide critical evidence to regulators regarding a product's suitability for marketing approval. The objectives of this study are (1) to characterize select features of trials for oncology products approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between 2015 and 2017; and (2) to quantify the costs of these trials and how such costs varied based on trial characteristics.

METHODS

We identified novel oncology therapeutic drugs, and their respective pivotal trials, approved between 2015 and 2017 using annual summary reports from the Food and Drug Administration. Cost estimates for each pivotal trial were calculated using IQVIA's CostPro, a clinical trial cost estimating tool based on executed contracts between pharmaceutical manufacturers and contract research organizations. Measures of drug and trial characteristics included trial design, end point, patient enrollment, and regulatory pathway. We also performed sensitivity analyses that varied assumptions regarding how efficiently each trial was conducted.

RESULTS

A total of 39 pivotal clinical trials provided the basis for Food and Drug Administration approval of 30 new oncology drugs from 2015 to 2017. Among these trials, primary end points were objective response rate in 20 (51.3%), progression-free survival in 13 (33.3%), and overall survival in 6 (15.4%). Twenty trials (51.3%) were single-arm studies. The median estimated cost of oncology pivotal trials was $31.7 million (interquartile range = $17.0-$60.4 million). Trials with objective response rate as primary end point had a median estimate of $17.7 million (interquartile range = $11.9-$27.1 million), compared with trials examining progression-free survival ($42.3 million, interquartile range = $34.6-$101.2 million) or overall survival ($79.4 million, interquartile range = $56.9-$97.7 million) (p < 0.001). Estimated costs for single-arm trials ($17.7 million, interquartile range = $11.9-$23.7 million) were less than for trials with a placebo-controlled ($56.7 million, interquartile range = $40.9-$103.9 million) or active control arm ($67.6 million, IQR = $35.5-$93.5 million) (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Relative to the estimated costs of drug development, the costs of these oncology pivotal trials were modest, with trials that produced more valuable scientific information costing more than their counterparts.

Reducing High-Dose Opioid Prescribing: State-Level Morphine Equivalent Daily Dose Policies, 2007-2017

OBJECTIVE

To describe current state-level policies in the United States, January 1, 2007-June 1, 2017, limiting high morphine equivalent daily dose (MEDD) prescribing.

METHODS

State-level MEDD threshold policies were reviewed using LexisNexis and Westlaw Next for legislative acts and using Google for nonlegislative state-level policies. The websites of each state's Medicaid agency, health department, prescription drug monitoring program, workers' compensation board, medical board, and pharmacy board were reviewed to identify additional policies. The final policy list was checked against existing policy compilations and academic literature and through contact with state health agency representatives. Policies were independently double-coded on the categories: state, agency/organization, policy type, effective date, threshold level, and policy exceptions.

RESULTS

Currently, 22 states have at least one type of MEDD policy, most commonly guidelines (14 states), followed by prior authorizations (four states), rules/regulations (four states), legislative acts (three states), claim denials (two states), and alert systems/automatic patient reports (two states). Thresholds range widely (30-300 mg MEDD), with higher thresholds generally corresponding to more restrictive policies (e.g., claim denial) and lower thresholds corresponding to less restrictive policies (e.g., guidelines). The majority of policies exclude some groups of opioid users, most commonly patients with terminal illnesses or acute pain.

CONCLUSIONS

MEDD policies have gained popularity in recent years, but considerable variation in threshold levels and policy structure point to a lack of consensus. This work provides a foundation for future evaluation of MEDD policies and may inform states considering adopting such policies.