A nomogram for predicting overall survival of women with endometrial cancer following primary therapy: toward improving individualized cancer care

American Brachytherapy Task Group Report: Adjuvant vaginal brachytherapy for early-stage endometrial cancer: A comprehensive review

This article aims to review the risk stratification of endometrial cancer, treatment rationale, outcomes, treatment planning, and treatment recommendations of vaginal brachytherapy (VBT) in the postoperative management of endometrial cancer patients. The authors performed a thorough review of the literature and reference pertinent articles pertaining to the aims of this review. Adjuvant VBT for early-stage endometrial cancer patients results in very low rates of vaginal recurrence (0-3.1%) with low rates of late toxicity which are primarily vaginal in nature. Post-Operative Radiation Therapy in Endometrial Cancer 2 (PORTEC-2) supports that VBT results in noninferior rates of vaginal recurrence compared to external beam radiotherapy for the treatment of high-intermediate risk patients. VBT as a boost after external beam radiotherapy, in combination with chemotherapy, and for high-risk histologies have shown excellent results as well though randomized data do not exist supporting VBT boost. There are many different applicators, dose-fractionation schedules, and treatment planning techniques which all result in favorable clinical outcomes and low rates of toxicity. Recommendations have been published by the American Brachytherapy Society and the American Society of Radiation Oncology to help guide practitioners in the use of VBT. Data support that patients and physicians prefer joint decision making regarding the use of VBT, and patients often desire additional treatment for a marginal benefit in risk of recurrence. Discussions regarding adjuvant therapy for endometrial cancer are best performed in a multidisciplinary setting, and patients should be counseled properly regarding the risks and benefits of adjuvant therapy.

RNASeq analysis reveals biological processes governing the clinical behaviour of endometrioid and serous endometrial cancers

BACKGROUND

Endometrial carcinoma comprises a group of tumours with distinct histologic and molecular features and clinical behaviour. Here, we sought to define the biological processes that govern the clinical behaviour of endometrial cancers.

METHODS

Sixteen prototype genes representative of different biological processes that would likely play a role in endometrial and other hormone-driven cancers were defined. RNA-sequencing gene expression data from 323 endometrial cancers from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) were used to determine the transcription module of each prototype gene. The expression of prototype genes and modules and their association with outcome was assessed in univariate and multivariate survival analyses. The association of MSH6 expression with outcome was validated in an independent cohort of 243 primary endometrial cancers using immunohistochemistry.

RESULTS

We observed that the clinical behaviour of endometrial cancers as a group was associated with hormone receptor signalling, PI3K pathway signalling and DNA mismatch repair processes. When analysed separately, in endometrioid carcinomas, hormone receptor, PI3K and DNA mismatch repair modules were significantly associated with outcome in univariate analysis, whereas the clinical behaviour of serous cancers was likely governed by apoptosis and Wnt signalling. Multivariate survival analysis revealed that MSH6 gene expression was associated with outcome of endometrial cancer patients independently from traditional prognostic clinicopathologic parameters, which was confirmed in an independent cohort at the protein level.

CONCLUSION

Endometrioid and serous endometrial cancers are underpinned by distinct molecular pathways. MSH6 expression levels may be associated with outcome in endometrial cancers as a group.

Melanoma-specific mortality and competing mortality in patients with non-metastatic malignant melanoma: a population-based analysis

Background

The objectives of this study were to evaluate and model the probability of melanoma-specific death and competing causes of death for patients with melanoma by competing risk analysis, and to build competing risk nomograms to provide individualized and accurate predictive tools.

Methods

Melanoma data were obtained from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results program. All patients diagnosed with primary non-metastatic melanoma during the years 2004–2007 were potentially eligible for inclusion. The cumulative incidence function (CIF) was used to describe the probability of melanoma mortality and competing risk mortality. We used Gray’s test to compare differences in CIF between groups. The proportional subdistribution hazard approach by Fine and Gray was used to model CIF. We built competing risk nomograms based on the models that we developed.

Results

The 5-year cumulative incidence of melanoma death was 7.1 %, and the cumulative incidence of other causes of death was 7.4 %. We identified that variables associated with an elevated probability of melanoma-specific mortality included older age, male sex, thick melanoma, ulcerated cancer, and positive lymph nodes. The nomograms were well calibrated. C-indexes were 0.85 and 0.83 for nomograms predicting the probability of melanoma mortality and competing risk mortality, which suggests good discriminative ability.

Conclusions

This large study cohort enabled us to build a reliable competing risk model and nomogram for predicting melanoma prognosis. Model performance proved to be good. This individualized predictive tool can be used in clinical practice to help treatment-related decision making.

Clinical outcomes of stage I endometrial carcinoma patients treated with surgery alone: Siriraj Hospital experiences

Objective

To evaluate the recurrence rates and patterns of failure in patients with stage I endometrial carcinoma after surgical staging without adjuvant therapy.

Methods

Medical records of 229 patients with stage I endometrial carcinoma, treated with surgery alone between 2002 and 2010 at Siriraj Hospital were retrospectively reviewed. The primary objective of this study was recurrence rates. The secondary objectives were patterns of failure, disease-free survival, overall survival, and prognostic factors related to outcomes.

Results

During median follow-up time of 53.3 months, 11 recurrences (4.8%) occurred with a median time to recurrence of 21.2 months (range, 7.7 to 77.8 months). Vaginal recurrence was the most common pattern of failure (8/11 patients, 72.7%). Other recurrences were pelvic, abdominal and multiple metastases. Factors that appeared to be prognostic factors on univariate analyses were age and having high intermediate risk (HIR) (Gynecologic Oncology Group [GOG] 99 criteria), none of which showed significance in multivariate analysis. The recurrence rates were higher in the patients with HIR criteria (22.2% vs. 4.1%, p=0.013) or patients with stage IB, grade 2 endometrioid carcinoma (9.4% vs. 4.3%, p=0.199). Five-year disease-free survival and 5-year overall survival were 93.9% (95% CI, 89.9 to 5.86) and 99.5% (95% CI, 97.0 to 99.9), respectively.

Conclusion

The patients with low risk stage I endometrial carcinoma had excellent outcomes with surgery alone. Our study showed that no single factor was demonstrated to be an independent predictor for recurrence.

Treatment failure prediction for head-and-neck cancer radiation therapy

PURPOSE

Treatment outcome prediction is an important emerging topic in oncologic care. To support radiation oncologists on their decisions, with individualized, tailored treatment regimens increasingly becoming the standard of care, accurate tools to predict tumour response to treatment are needed. The goal of this work is to identify the most determinant factor(s) for treatment response aiming to develop prediction models that robustly estimate tumour response to radiation therapy in patients with head-and-neck cancer.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A population-based cohort study was performed on 92 patients with head-and-neck cancer treated with radiation from 2007 until 2014 at the Portuguese Institute of Oncology of Coimbra (IPOCFG). Correlation analysis and multivariate binary logistic regression analysis were conducted in order to explore the predictive power of the considered predictors. Performance of the models is expressed as the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve. A nomogram to predict treatment failure was developed.

RESULTS

Significant prognostic factors for treatment failure, after multivariate regression, were older age, non-concomitant radiation therapy and larger primary tumour volume. A regression model with these predictors revealed an AUC of .78 for an independent data set.

CONCLUSION

For patients with head-and-neck cancer treated with definitive radiation, we have developed a prediction nomogram based on models that presented good discriminative ability in making predictions of tumour response to treatment. The probability of treatment failure is higher for older patients with larger tumours treated with non-concomitant radiation.

Endometrial cancer

Endometrial cancer is the most common gynaecological tumour in developed countries, and its incidence is increasing. The most frequently occurring histological subtype is endometrioid adenocarcinoma. Patients are often diagnosed when the disease is still confined to the uterus. Standard treatment consists of primary hysterectomy and bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy, often using minimally invasive approaches (laparoscopic or robotic). Lymph node surgical strategy is contingent on histological factors (subtype, tumour grade, involvement of lymphovascular space), disease stage (including myometrial invasion), patients' characteristics (age and comorbidities), and national and international guidelines. Adjuvant treatment is tailored according to histology and stage. Various classifications are used to assess the risks of recurrence and to determine optimum postoperative management. 5 year overall survival ranges from 74% to 91% in patients without metastatic disease. Trials are ongoing in patients at high risk of recurrence (including chemotherapy, chemoradiation therapy, and molecular targeted therapies) to assess the modalities that best balance optimisation of survival with the lowest adverse effects on quality of life.

Predictive Modeling: A New Paradigm for Managing Endometrial Cancer

With the abundance of new options in diagnostic and treatment modalities, a shift in the medical decision process for endometrial cancer (EC) has been observed. The emergence of individualized medicine and the increasing complexity of available medical data has lead to the development of several prediction models. In EC, those clinical models (algorithms, nomograms, and risk scoring systems) have been reported, especially for stratifying and subgrouping patients, with various unanswered questions regarding such things as the optimal surgical staging for lymph node metastasis as well as the assessment of recurrence and survival outcomes. In this review, we highlight existing prognostic and predictive models in EC, with a specific focus on their clinical applicability. We also discuss the methodologic aspects of the development of such predictive models and the steps that are required to integrate these tools into clinical decision making. In the future, the emerging field of molecular or biochemical markers research may substantially improve predictive and treatment approaches.

Associations between etiologic factors and mortality after endometrial cancer diagnosis: the NRG Oncology/Gynecologic Oncology Group 210 trial

BACKGROUND

Few studies have analyzed relationships between risk factors for endometrial cancer, especially with regard to aggressive (non-endometrioid) histologic subtypes, and prognosis. We examined these relationships in the prospective NRG Oncology/Gynecologic Oncology Group 210 trial.

METHODS

Prior to surgery, participants completed a questionnaire assessing risk factors for gynecologic cancers. Pathology data were derived from clinical reports and central review. We used the Fine and Gray subdistribution hazards model to estimate subhazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between etiologic factors and cause-specific subhazards in the presence of competing risks. These models were stratified by tumor subtype and adjusted for stage and socioeconomic status indicators.

RESULTS

Median follow-up was 60months after enrollment (range: 1day-118months). Among 4609 participants, a total of 854 deaths occurred, of which, 582 deaths were attributed to endometrial carcinoma. Among low-grade endometrioid cases, endometrial carcinoma-specific subhazards were significantly associated with age at diagnosis (HR=1.04, 95% CI=1.01-1.06 per year, P-trend) and BMI (class II obesity vs. normal BMI: HR=2.29, 95% CI=1.06-4.98, P-trend=0.01). Among high-grade endometrioid cases, endometrial carcinoma-specific subhazards were associated with age at diagnosis (HR=1.05, 95% CI=1.02-1.07 per year, P-trend<0.001). Among non-endometrioid cases, endometrial carcinoma-specific subhazards were associated with parity relative to nulliparity among serous (HR=0.55, 95% CI=0.36-0.82) and carcinosarcoma cases (HR=2.01, 95% CI=1.00-4.05).

DISCUSSION

Several endometrial carcinoma risk factors are associated with prognosis, which occurs in a tumor-subtype specific context. If confirmed, these results would suggest that factors beyond histopathologic features and stage are related to prognosis. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00340808.

Prognostic Nomogram for Patients with Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma after Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy

This study was aimed to define possible predictors of overall survival in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Patients were treated with intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT), to establish an effective prognostic nomogram that could provide individualized predictions of treatment outcome in this setting. We reviewed the records of 533 patients with non-metastatic NPC who underwent IMRT with or without concurrent chemotherapy at the Department of Radiation Oncology of Sun Yat-Sen University from 2002 to 2009; none of these patients received induction or adjuvant chemotherapy. These data sets were used to construct a nomogram based on Cox regression. Nomogram performance was determined via a concordance index (C-index) and a calibration curve which was compared with the TNM staging system for NPC. The results were validated in an external cohort of 442 patients from the Department of Radiation Oncology of Wenzhou Medical College who were treated during the same period. Results showed that the greatest influence on survival were primary gross tumor volume, age, tumor stage and nodal stage (2002 Union for International Cancer Control [UICC] staging system), which were selected into the nomogram. The C-index of the nomogram for predicting survival was 0.748 (95%CI, 0.704–0.785), which was statistically higher than that of TNM staging system (0.684, P<0.001). The calibration curve exhibited agreement between nomogram-predicted and the actual observed probabilities for overall survival. In the validation cohort, the nomogram discrimination was superior to the TNM staging system (C-index: 0.768 vs 0.721; P = 0.026). In conclusion, the nomogram proposed in this study resulted in more-accurate prognostic prediction for patients with NPC after IMRT and compared favorably to the TNM staging system; this individualized information will aid in patient counseling and may be used for de-escalation trials in the future.

Nomograms in oncology: more than meets the eye

Nomograms are widely used as prognostic devices in oncology and medicine. With the ability to generate an individual probability of a clinical event by integrating diverse prognostic and determinant variables, nomograms meet our desire for biologically and clinically integrated models and fulfill our drive towards personalised medicine. Rapid computation through user-friendly digital interfaces, together with increased accuracy, and more easily understood prognoses compared with conventional staging, allow for seamless incorporation of nomogram-derived prognosis to aid clinical decision making. This has led to the appearance of many nomograms on the internet and in medical journals, and an increase in nomogram use by patients and physicians alike. However, the statistical foundations of nomogram construction, their precise interpretation, and evidence supporting their use are generally misunderstood. This issue is leading to an under-appreciation of the inherent uncertainties regarding nomogram use. We provide a systematic, practical approach to evaluating and comprehending nomogram-derived prognoses, with particular emphasis on clarifying common misconceptions and highlighting limitations.

Staging for endometrial cancer: The controversy around lymphadenectomy - Can this be resolved?

Endometrial cancer remains the most common malignancy of the female genital tract. Lymph node metastasis is one of the most important prognostic factors, and stratification into pelvic lymph node invasion (stage IIIC1) and para-aortic lymph node invasion (stage IIIC2) improved the predictive value of the 2009 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) classification. Radiological examination methods such as magnetic resonance imaging and positron emission tomography-computed tomography do not have good-enough sensitivity to avoid lymphadenectomy for the assessment of lymph node invasion. Prediction scores are becoming increasingly valuable to exclude lymph node metastasis in low-risk groups, and biomarkers could help to identify patients with high-risk lymph node metastatic probability. The therapeutic role of lymph node dissection remains a matter of debate. Several end points can be considered to evaluate the opportunity of lymphadenectomy in endometrial cancer. First, we compare survival according to the realization, the extent, and the numbers of nodes removed during lymphadenectomy. Second, we assess the opportunity of lymphadenectomy in order to tailor adjuvant treatment modalities. Third, we analyze the surgical complication rate after pelvic lymphadenectomy.

Preoperative CT-based nomogram for predicting overall survival in women with non-endometrioid carcinomas of the uterine corpus

PURPOSE

To develop a preoperative CT-based nomogram for predicting overall survival (OS) in patients with non-endometrioid carcinomas of the uterine corpus.

METHODS

Waiving informed consent, the institutional review board approved this HIPAA-compliant, retrospective study of 193 women with histopathologically proven uterine papillary serous carcinomas (UPSC), uterine clear cell carcinomas (UCCC), and uterine carcinosarcomas (UCS) who underwent primary surgical resection between May 1998 and December 2011, and had a preoperative CT ≤ 6 weeks before surgery. All CT scans were reviewed for local or/and regional tumor extent, presence of pelvic or/and para-aortic adenopathy, and presence of distant metastases. Univariate survival analysis was performed using log-rank test and Cox regression. Variables shown significant by the univariate analysis were evaluated with the multivariable Cox regression analysis and the results were used to create a nomogram for predicting OS. The predictive accuracy of the nomogram was assessed with the concordance probability index (c-index) and a 3-year calibration plot.

RESULTS

Mean patient age was 67.2 years (range 49.0-85.9); histologies included UPSC (n = 116), UCCC (n = 27), and UCS (n = 50). Median follow-up was 38.1 months (0.9-168.5 months). At multivariate analysis, patient age, ascites, and omental implants on CT were significant adverse predictors of OS and were used to build the nomogram. Concordance index for the nomogram was 0.640 ± 0.028.

CONCLUSION

We developed a nomogram with a good concordance probability at predicting OS based on readily available pretreatment clinical and imaging characteristics. This preoperative nomogram has the potential to improve initial treatment planning and patient counseling.

External validation of nomograms designed to predict lymphatic dissemination in patients with early-stage endometrioid endometrial cancer: a multicenter study

OBJECTIVE

The objective of the study was to externally validate and assess the robustness of 2 nomograms designed to predict the probability of lymphatic dissemination (LD) for patients with early-stage endometrioid endometrial cancer.

STUDY DESIGN

Using a prospective multicenter database, we assessed the discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility of 2 nomograms in patients with surgically treated early-stage endometrioid endometrial cancer.

RESULTS

Among the 322 eligible patients identified, the overall LD rate was 9.9% (32 of 322). Predictive accuracy according to discrimination was 0.65 (95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.69) for the full nomogram and 0.71 (95% confidence interval, 0.68-0.74) for the alternative nomogram. The correspondence between observed recurrence rate and the nomogram predictions suggests a moderate calibration of the nomograms in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSION

The nomograms were externally validated and shown to be partly generalizable to a new and independent patient population. Although these tools provide a more individualized estimation of LD, additional parameters are needed to allow higher accuracy for counseling patients in clinical practice.

Stage IIIC endometrial cancer: the need for novel subgrouping according to the ratio of metastatic lymph nodes

INTRODUCTION

The survival rates in endometrial cancer (EC) patients with lymph node (LN) metastasis vary greatly. Many other factors may have impact on the prognosis within this special group. The purpose of this study was to determine factors predicting the progression or death in patients with stage IIIC EC.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A single tertiary center, retrospective analysis was conducted in a total of 38 consecutive patients who surgically treated for EC between January 2005 and January 2013. The primary endpoint was the determination of factors predicting the progression, recurrence, or death of any cause. The secondary endpoints were progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS).

RESULTS

The median age at diagnosis was 64 years, and the median follow-up time was 32.50 months (95 % CI 28.75-40.56). The median number of metastatic positive LNs (pelvic and/or paraaortic) was 2, and the LN ratio, expressed as the percentage of positive nodes to total LNs identified, was 6.3 %. The LN ratio (≥ 6.5 %) was the only independent parameter for progression or death in multiple logistic regression analysis. Patients were stratified according to the LN ratio (<6.5 vs. ≥ 6.5 %) for survival comparisons. The estimated 32-month PFS rates were 90 and 64.8 %, respectively [HR (95 % CI) = 5.07 (1.05-24.56), P = 0.025]. However, the estimated 32-month OS rates were comparable (94.1 vs. 94.1 %), [HR (95 % CI) = 4.26 (0.44-41.30), P = 0.21].

DISCUSSION

The stratification of patients with stage IIIC disease according to the LN ratio may allow better identification of prognostic information and selection of individualized patient-tailored adjuvant treatment modalities.

Classification of endometrial carcinoma: more than two types

Endometrial cancer is the most common gynaecological malignancy in Europe and North America. Traditional classification of endometrial carcinoma is based either on clinical and endocrine features (eg, types I and II) or on histopathological characteristics (eg, endometrioid, serous, or clear-cell adenocarcinoma). Subtypes defined by the different classification systems correlate to some extent, but there is substantial heterogeneity in biological, pathological, and molecular features within tumour types from both classification systems. In this Review we provide an overview of traditional and newer genomic classifications of endometrial cancer. We discuss how a classification system that incorporates genomic and histopathological features to define biologically and clinically relevant subsets of the disease would be useful. Such integrated classification might facilitate development of treatments tailored to specific disease subgroups and could potentially enable delivery of precision medicine to patients with endometrial cancer.

Risk-scoring models for individualized prediction of overall survival in low-grade and high-grade endometrial cancer

OBJECTIVE

Overall survival (OS) in endometrial cancer (EC) is dependent on patient-, disease-, and treatment-specific risk factors. Comprehensive risk-scoring models were developed to estimate OS in low-grade and high-grade EC.

METHODS

Patients undergoing primary surgery for EC from 1999 through 2008 were stratified histologically according to the International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) as either (i) low grade: grades 1 and 2 endometrioid EC or (ii) high grade: grade 3, including non-endometrioid EC. Associations between patient-, pathological-, and treatment-specific risk factors and OS starting on postoperative day 30 were assessed using multivariable Cox regression models. Factors independently associated with OS were used to construct nomograms and risk-scoring models.

RESULTS

Eligible patients (N=1281) included 925 low-grade and 356 high-grade patients; estimated 5-year OSs were 87.0% and 51.5%, respectively. Among patients alive at last follow-up, median follow-up was 5.0 (low grade) and 4.6years (high grade), respectively. In low-grade patients, independent factors predictive of compromised OS included age, cardiovascular disease, pulmonary dysfunction, stage, tumor diameter, pelvic lymph node status, and grade 2 or higher 30-day postoperative complications. Among high-grade patients, age, American Society of Anesthesiologists score, stage, lymphovascular space invasion, adjuvant therapy, para-aortic nodal status, and cervical stromal invasion were independent predictors of compromised OS. The two risk-scoring models/nomograms had excellent calibration and discrimination (unbiased c-indices=0.803 and 0.759).

CONCLUSION

Patients with low-grade and high-grade EC can be counseled regarding their predicted OS using the proposed risk-scoring models. This may facilitate institution of personalized treatment algorithms, surveillance strategies, and lifestyle interventions.

External validation of a nomogram for predicting survival of women with uterine cancer in a cohort of African American patients

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to externally validate a nomogram for predicting overall survival of women with uterine cancer in an African American population.

METHODS

After the institutional review board approval, data from the uterine cancer database from 2 major teaching hospitals in Brooklyn, NY, were analyzed. The predicted survival for each patient was calculated with the use of the nonogram; the data were clustered in deciles and compared with the observed survival data.

RESULTS

High incidence of aggressive histologic types (22% carcinosarcoma, 16% serous/clear cell), poorly differentiated (53% grade 3), and advanced stage (38% stage III or IV) tumors was found in our study population. The median follow-up for survivors was 52 months (range, 1-274 months). The observed and predicted 3-year overall survival probabilities were significantly different (62.5% vs 72.6%, P < 0.001). Similarly, the observed 5-year overall survival probability was significantly lower than the predicted by the nomogram (55.5% vs 63.4%, P < 0.001). The discrepancy between predicted and observed survival was more pronounced in the midrisk groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram is not an adequate tool to predict survival in the African American population with cancer of the uterine corpus. Race seems to be a significant, independent factor that affects survival and should be included in predictive models.

An external validation study of nomograms designed to predict isolated loco-regional and distant endometrial cancer recurrences: how applicable are they?

Background:

To externally validate and assess the robustness of two nomograms to predict the recurrence risk of women with endometrial cancer (EC).

Methods:

Using an independent, multicentre external patient cohort we assessed the discrimination and calibration of two nomograms – the 3-year isolated loco-regional (ILRR) and distant (DR) recurrence nomograms – in women with surgically treated stage I–III EC.

Results:

Two hundred and seventy one eligible women were identified from two university hospital databases and the Senti-Endo trial. The median follow-up and initial recurrence time were 38.1 (range: 12–69) and 22.0 (range: 8.3–55) months, respectively. The overall recurrence rate was 13.8% (37 out of 271). Predictive accuracy according to the discrimination was 0.69 (95% CI, 0.58–0.79) and 0.66 (95% CI, 0.60–0.71) for the 3-year ILRR and DR nomograms, respectively. The correspondence between observed recurrence rate and the nomogram predictions suggests a moderate calibration of the nomograms in the validation cohort.

Conclusion:

The nomograms were externally validated and shown to be partly generalisable to a new and independent patient population. The tools need to be improved by including information on the lymph node status and adjuvant therapies.

REM (risk of endometrial malignancy): a proposal for a new scoring system to evaluate risk of endometrial malignancy

PURPOSE

It is often difficult to distinguish a benign endometrial disease from a malignancy and tools to help the physician are needed to triage patients into high and low risk of endometrial cancer. The purpose of this study was to obtain a predictive model to assess the risk of endometrial malignancy (REM) in women with ultrasound endometrial abnormalities.

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN

Women, between ages 45 to 80 years, diagnosed through ultrasound with endometrial abnormalities and scheduled to have surgery were enrolled on a prospective study at the Department of Gynaecologic Oncology of Campus Bio-Medico, University of Rome. Preoperative clinical, ultrasound and laboratory characteristics were taken into account. Logistic regression algorithm was used to categorize patients into low- and high-risk groups for endometrial cancer.

RESULTS

A total of 675 patients were considered for the analysis: 88 with endometrial cancer and 587 with benign endometrial disease. We divided the patients into two groups: training set (TS) and verification set (VS). Preoperative age, symptom, HE4 levels, and ultrasound endometrial thickness were found statistically significant, and were included into a multivariate logistic regression model to determine the probability to have endometrial cancer. In the TS, REM reported 93.3% sensitivity and 97.1% specificity [positive predictive value (PPV), 0.83; negative predictive value (NPV), 0.98; AUC, 0.957; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.908-0.984]. In the VS, REM reported 89.3% sensitivity and 95.4% specificity (PPV, 0.73; NPV, 0.98; AUC, 0.919; 95% CI, 0.829-0.970).

CONCLUSIONS

Our data support the use of REM to triage patients into low- and high-risk groups for endometrial cancer, even if an external validation of the model is needed.

External validation of a nomogram that predicts the pathological diagnosis of thyroid nodules in a Chinese population

INTRODUCTION

Nomograms are statistical predictive models that can provide the probability of a clinical event. Nomograms have better performance for the estimation of individual risks because of their increased accuracy and objectivity relative to physicians' personal experiences. Recently, a nomogram for predicting the likelihood that a thyroid nodule is malignant was introduced by Nixon. The aim of this study was to determine whether Nixon's nomogram can be validated in a Chinese population.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

All consecutive patients with thyroid nodules who underwent surgery between January and June 2012 in our hospital were enrolled to validate Nixon's nomogram. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify the risk factors for thyroid carcinoma. Discrimination and calibration were employed to evaluate the performance of Nixon's model in our population.

RESULTS

A total of 348 consecutive patients with 409 thyroid nodules were enrolled. Thyroid ultrasonographic characteristics, including shape, echo texture, calcification, margins, vascularity and number (solitary vs. multiple nodules), were associated with malignance in the multivariate analysis. The discrimination of all nodules group, the group with a low risk of malignancy (predictive proportion <50%) and the group with a high risk of malignancy (predictive proportion ≥50%) using Nixon's nomogram was satisfactory, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the three groups were 0.87, 0.75 and 0.72, respectively. However, the calibration was significant (p = 0.55) only in the high-risk group.

CONCLUSION

Nixon's nomogram is a valuable predictive model for the Chinese population and has been externally validated. It has good performance for patients with a high risk of malignancy and may be more suitable for use with these patients in China.

External validation of a prognostic nomogram for overall survival in women with uterine leiomyosarcoma

BACKGROUND

There is no validated system to identify prognostically distinct cohorts of women with uterine leiomyosarcoma (ULMS). By using an independent, pooled, multi-institutional, international patient cohort, the authors validated a recently proposed ULMS nomogram.

METHODS

The ULMS nomogram incorporated 7 clinical characteristics (age, tumor size, tumor grade, cervical involvement, locoregional metastases, distant metastases, and mitotic index (per 10 high-power fields) to predict overall survival (OS) after primary surgery. Independent cohorts from 2 sarcoma centers were included. Eligible women, at minimum, underwent a hysterectomy for primary, locally advanced, or metastatic ULMS and received part of their care at 1 of the centers between 1994 and 2010.

RESULTS

In total, 187 women with ULMS were identified who met the above criteria described above (median age, 51 years; median tumor size, 9 cm; median mitotic index, 20 per 10 high-power fields). Tumors generally were high grade (88%), FIGO stage I or II (61%) without cervical involvement (93%) and without locoregional metastases (77%) or distant metastases (83%). The median OS and the 5-year OS rate were 4.5 years (95% confidence interval, 3.2-5.3 years) and 46%, respectively; and 65 women (35%) remained alive at last follow-up. The nomogram concordance index was 0.67(standard error, 0.02), which was as high as the concordance index from the initial cohort used for nomogram development. The concordance between actual OS and nomogram predictions suggests excellent calibration because predictions were within 1% of actual 5-year OS rates for patients with a predicted 5-year OS of less than 0.68.

CONCLUSIONS

The ULMS nomogram was externally validated using independent cohorts. These findings support the international use of the ULMS nomogram prognostic of OS in ULMS.

Risk model and nomogram for dysphagia and xerostomia prediction in head and neck cancer patients treated by radiotherapy and/or chemotherapy

In our randomized trial on hyperbaric oxygen (HBO), it was shown that HBO could reduce dysphagia and xerostomia, which are frequently encountered after (chemo-) radiotherapy (RT) and/or surgery for head and neck cancer (HNC). A risk model and nomogram are developed to select those patients who most likely will respond to HBO treatment. A total of 434 HNC patients treated from 2000 to 2008 were analyzed and filled out the EORTC QLQC-30 and H&N35 questionnaires. Age, gender, chemotherapy, T and N stages, site, radiotherapy technique, RT boost, surgery of the primary tumor and neck, bilateral RT, and dose were analyzed in a statistical model. The discriminative value of the model was evaluated based on receiver operating characteristics (ROC), the area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and proportion of correctly classified measures. Significant factors in predicting swallowing problems are age, follow-up duration, tumor site, chemotherapy, surgery of the primary tumor and neck, and dose. For dry mouth, the significant factors are age, gender, tumor site, N stage, chemotherapy, and bilateral irradiation. For dysphagia and xerostomia, the area under the ROC curve is 0.7034 and 0.7224, respectively, with a specificity of 89/77%, sensitivity of 27/58%, and a positive predictive value of 83/67% for dysphagia and xerostomia, respectively. The developed predictive risk model could be used to select patients for costly hyperbaric oxygen treatment to prevent or reduce severe late side effects of HNC treatment. Our model serves as a guideline for the Department of Radiation Oncology to reduce costs by excluding patients not amenable to hyperbaric oxygen protocols. The nomogram presented is a useful tool for clinicians in assessing patient risks when deciding on follow-up strategies (e.g., hyperbaric oxygen treatment) after RT or surgery for HNC.

Nomogram prediction for overall survival of patients diagnosed with cervical cancer

Background:

Nomograms are predictive tools that are widely used for estimating cancer prognosis. The aim of this study was to develop a nomogram for the prediction of overall survival (OS) in patients diagnosed with cervical cancer.

Methods:

Cervical cancer databases of two large institutions were analysed. Overall survival was defined as the clinical endpoint and OS probabilities were estimated using the Kaplan–Meier method. Based on the results of survival analyses and previous studies, relevant covariates were identified, a nomogram was constructed and validated using bootstrap cross-validation. Discrimination of the nomogram was quantified with the concordance probability.

Results:

In total, 528 consecutive patients with invasive cervical cancer, who had all nomogram variables available, were identified. Mean 5-year OS rates for patients with International Federation of Gynecologists and Obstetricians (FIGO) stage IA, IB, II, III, and IV were 99.0%, 88.6%, 65.8%, 58.7%, and 41.5%, respectively. Seventy-six cancer-related deaths were observed during the follow-up period. FIGO stage, tumour size, age, histologic subtype, lymph node ratio, and parametrial involvement were selected as nomogram covariates. The prognostic performance of the model exceeded that of FIGO stage alone and the model’s estimated optimism-corrected concordance probability was 0.723, indicating accurate prediction of OS. We present the prediction model as nomogram and provide a web-based risk calculator (http://www.ccc.ac.at/gcu).

Conclusion:

Based on six easily available parameters, a novel statistical model to predict OS of patients diagnosed with cervical cancer was constructed and validated. The model was implemented in a nomogram and provides accurate prediction of individual patients’ prognosis useful for patient counselling and deciding on follow-up strategies.

External validation of a nomogram predicting overall survival of patients diagnosed with endometrial cancer

OBJECTIVES

Nomograms are predictive models that provide the overall probability of a specific outcome. Nomograms have shown better individual discrimination than currently used staging systems in numerous tumor entities. Recently, a nomogram for predicting overall survival (OS) in women with endometrial cancer was introduced by Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC). The aim of this study was to test the validity of the MSKCC endometrial cancer nomogram using an independent, external patient cohort.

METHODS

The MSKCC nomogram is based on five readily available clinical characteristics. A multi-institutional endometrial cancer database was used to test the nomogram's validity. All consecutive patients treated for endometrial cancer between December 1995 and May 2011 and who had all nomogram variables documented were identified for analysis.

RESULTS

Seven hundred sixty-five eligible patients were identified and used for external validation analysis. In the Austrian patient cohort, median OS was 134 months, and 3-year and 5-year OS rates were 83.8% (95% CI, 80.6-86.5%) and 77.2% (95% CI, 43.5-80.5%), respectively. The nomogram concordance index was 0.71 (SE=0.017; 95% CI, 0.68-0.74). The correspondence between the actual OS and the nomogram predictions suggests a good calibration of the nomogram in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSION

The MSKCC endometrial cancer nomogram was externally validated and was shown to be generalizable to a new and independent patient population. The nomogram provides a more individualized and accurate estimation of OS for patients diagnosed with endometrial cancer following primary therapy. The nomogram can be used for counseling patients more accurately and for better stratifying patients for clinical trials.

Adjuvant chemotherapy for endometrial cancer after hysterectomy

BACKGROUND

Endometrial adenocarcinoma (womb cancer) is a malignant growth of the lining (endometrium) of the womb (uterus). It is distinct from sarcomas (tumours of the uterine muscle). Survival depends the risk of microscopic metastases after surgery. Adjuvant (postoperative) chemotherapy improves survival from some other adenocarcinomas, and there is evidence that endometrial cancer is sensitive to cytotoxic therapy. This systematic review examines the effect of chemotherapy on survival after hysterectomy for endometrial cancer.

OBJECTIVES

To assess efficacy of adjuvant (postoperative) chemotherapy for endometrial cancer.

SEARCH STRATEGY

We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL, The Cochrane Library 2010, Issue 3), MEDLINE and EMBASE up to August 2010, registers of clinical trials, abstracts of scientific meetings, reference lists of included studies and contacted experts in the field.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing adjuvant chemotherapy with any other adjuvant treatment or no other treatment.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We used a random-effects meta-analysis to assess hazard ratios (HR) for overall and progression-free survival and risk ratios (RR) to compare death rates and site of initial relapse.

MAIN RESULTS

Five RCTs compared no additional treatment with additional chemotherapy after hysterectomy and radiotherapy. Four trials compared platinum based combination chemotherapy directly with radiotherapy. Indiscriminate pooling of survival data from 2197 women shows a significant overall survival advantage from adjuvant chemotherapy (RR (95% CI) = 0.88 (0.79 to 0.99)). Sensitivity analysis focused on trials of modern platinum based chemotherapy regimens and found the relative risk of death to be 0.85 ((0.76 to 0.96); number needed to treat for an additional beneficial outcome (NNT) = 25; absolute risk reduction = 4% (1% to 8%)). The HR for overall survival is 0.74 (0.64 to 0.89), significantly favouring the addition of postoperative platinum based chemotherapy. The HR for progression-free survival is 0.75 (0.64 to 0.89). This means that chemotherapy reduces the risk of being dead at any censorship by a quarter. Chemotherapy reduces the risk of developing the first recurrence outside the pelvis (RR = 0.79 (0.68 to 0.92), 5% absolute risk reduction; NNT = 20). The analysis of pelvic recurrence rates is underpowered but the trend suggests that chemotherapy may be less effective than radiotherapy in a direct comparison (RR = 1.28 (0.97 to 1.68)) but it may have added value when used with radiotherapy (RR = 0.48 (0.20 to 1.18)).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Postoperative platinum based chemotherapy is associated with a small benefit in progression-free survival and overall survival irrespective of radiotherapy treatment. It reduces the risk of developing a metastasis, could be an alternative to radiotherapy and has added value when used with radiotherapy.

An interactive tool for individualized estimation of conditional survival in rectal cancer

BACKGROUND

For rectal cancer patients who have already survived a period of time after diagnosis, survival probability changes and is more accurately depicted by conditional survival. The specific aim of this study was to develop an interactive tool for individualized estimation of changing prognosis for rectal cancer patients.

METHODS

A multivariate Cox proportional hazards (CPH) survival model was constructed using data from rectal cancer patients diagnosed from 1994 to 2003 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Age, race, sex, and stage were used as covariates in the survival prediction model. The primary outcome variable was overall survival conditional on having survived up to 5 years from diagnosis.

RESULTS

Data from 42,830 rectal cancer patients met the inclusion criteria. The multivariate CPH model showed age, race, sex, and stage as significant independent predictors of survival. The survival prediction model demonstrated good calibration and discrimination, with a bootstrap-corrected concordance index of 0.75. A web-based prediction tool was built from this regression model that can compute individualized estimates of changing prognosis over time.

CONCLUSIONS

An interactive prediction modeling tool can estimate prognosis for rectal cancer patients who have already survived a period of time after diagnosis and treatment. Having more accurate prognostic information can empower both patients and clinicians to be able to make more appropriate decisions regarding follow-up, surveillance testing, and future treatment.