Imaging plus X: multimodal models of neurodegenerative disease

Modeling longitudinal imaging biomarkers with parametric Bayesian multi-task learning

Longitudinal imaging biomarkers are invaluable for understanding the course of neurodegeneration, promising the ability to track disease progression and to detect disease earlier than cross-sectional biomarkers. To properly realize their potential, biomarker trajectory models must be robust to both under-sampling and measurement errors and should be able to integrate multi-modal information to improve trajectory inference and prediction. Here we present a parametric Bayesian multi-task learning based approach to modeling univariate trajectories across subjects that addresses these criteria. Our approach learns multiple subjects' trajectories within a single model that allows for different types of information sharing, that is, coupling, across subjects. It optimizes a combination of uncoupled, fully coupled and kernel coupled models. Kernel-based coupling allows linking subjects' trajectories based on one or more biomarker measures. We demonstrate this using Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) data, where we model longitudinal trajectories of MRI-derived cortical volumes in neurodegeneration, with coupling based on APOE genotype, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and amyloid PET-based biomarkers. In addition to detecting established disease effects, we detect disease related changes within the insula that have not received much attention within the literature. Due to its sensitivity in detecting disease effects, its competitive predictive performance and its ability to learn the optimal parameter covariance from data rather than choosing a specific set of random and fixed effects a priori, we propose that our model can be used in place of or in addition to linear mixed effects models when modeling biomarker trajectories. A software implementation of the method is publicly available.

Multi-study validation of data-driven disease progression models to characterize evolution of biomarkers in Alzheimer's disease

Understanding the sequence of biological and clinical events along the course of Alzheimer's disease provides insights into dementia pathophysiology and can help participant selection in clinical trials. Our objective is to train two data-driven computational models for sequencing these events, the Event Based Model (EBM) and discriminative-EBM (DEBM), on the basis of well-characterized research data, then validate the trained models on subjects from clinical cohorts characterized by less-structured data-acquisition protocols.

Seven independent data cohorts were considered totalling 2389 cognitively normal (CN), 1424 mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and 743 Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients. The Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) data set was used as training set for the constriction of disease models while a collection of multi-centric data cohorts was used as test set for validation. Cross-sectional information related to clinical, cognitive, imaging and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers was used.

Event sequences obtained with EBM and DEBM showed differences in the ordering of single biomarkers but according to both the first biomarkers to become abnormal were those related to CSF, followed by cognitive scores, while structural imaging showed significant volumetric decreases at later stages of the disease progression. Staging of test set subjects based on sequences obtained with both models showed good linear correlation with the Mini Mental State Examination score (R²_EBM = 0.866; R²_DEBM = 0.906). In discriminant analyses, significant differences (p-value ≤ 0.05) between the staging of subjects from training and test sets were observed in both models. No significant difference between the staging of subjects from the training and test was observed (p-value > 0.05) when considering a subset composed by 562 subjects for which all biomarker families (cognitive, imaging and CSF) are available.

Event sequence obtained with DEBM recapitulates the heuristic models in a data-driven fashion and is clinically plausible. We demonstrated inter-cohort transferability of two disease progression models and their robustness in detecting AD phases. This is an important step towards the adoption of data-driven statistical models into clinical domain.

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Data-driven event sequences describe evolution of relevant biomarkers in AD.

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Agreement between event sequences and heuristic AD progression models

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Accuracy in classifying subjects from clinical cohorts up to 91%

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Staging of subjects and MMSE scores of individuals show linear relation.

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Transferability of AD progression models based on research data to clinical cohorts

Impact of a clinical decision support tool on prediction of progression in early-stage dementia: a prospective validation study

Background

In clinical practice, it is often difficult to predict which patients with cognitive complaints or impairment will progress or remain stable. We assessed the impact of using a clinical decision support system, the PredictND tool, to predict progression in patients with subjective cognitive decline (SCD) and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) in memory clinics.

Methods

In this prospective multicenter study, we included 429 patients with SCD (n = 230) and MCI (n = 199) (female 54%, age 67 ± 9, MMSE 28 ± 2) and followed them for at least 12 months. Based on all available patient baseline data (demographics, cognitive tests, cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers, and MRI), the PredictND tool provides a comprehensive overview of the data and a classification defining the likelihood of progression. At baseline, a clinician defined an expected follow-up diagnosis and estimated the level of confidence in their prediction using a visual analogue scale (VAS, 0–100%), first without and subsequently with the PredictND tool. As outcome measure, we defined clinical progression as progression from SCD to MCI or dementia, and from MCI to dementia. Correspondence between the expected and the actual clinical progression at follow-up defined the prognostic accuracy.

Results

After a mean follow-up time of 1.7 ± 0.4 years, 21 (9%) SCD and 63 (32%) MCI had progressed. When using the PredictND tool, the overall prognostic accuracy was unaffected (0.4%, 95%CI − 3.0%; + 3.9%; p = 0.79). However, restricting the analysis to patients with more certain classifications (n = 203), we found an increase of 3% in the accuracy (95%CI − 0.6%; + 6.5%; p = 0.11). Furthermore, for this subgroup, the tool alone showed a statistically significant increase in the prognostic accuracy compared to the evaluation without tool (6.4%, 95%CI 2.1%; 10.7%; p = 0.004). Specifically, the negative predictive value was high. Moreover, confidence in the prediction increased significantly (∆VAS = 4%, p < .0001).

Conclusions

Adding the PredictND tool to the clinical evaluation increased clinicians’ confidence. Furthermore, the results indicate that the tool has the potential to improve prediction of progression for patients with more certain classifications.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13195-019-0482-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Disease progression timeline estimation for Alzheimer's disease using discriminative event based modeling

Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is characterized by a cascade of biomarkers becoming abnormal, the pathophysiology of which is very complex and largely unknown. Event-based modeling (EBM) is a data-driven technique to estimate the sequence in which biomarkers for a disease become abnormal based on cross-sectional data. It can help in understanding the dynamics of disease progression and facilitate early diagnosis and prognosis by staging patients. In this work we propose a novel discriminative approach to EBM, which is shown to be more accurate than existing state-of-the-art EBM methods. The method first estimates for each subject an approximate ordering of events. Subsequently, the central ordering over all subjects is estimated by fitting a generalized Mallows model to these approximate subject-specific orderings based on a novel probabilistic Kendall's Tau distance. We also introduce the concept of relative distance between events which helps in creating a disease progression timeline. Subsequently, we propose a method to stage subjects by placing them on the estimated disease progression timeline. We evaluated the proposed method on Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) data and compared the results with existing state-of-the-art EBM methods. We also performed extensive experiments on synthetic data simulating the progression of Alzheimer's disease. The event orderings obtained on ADNI data seem plausible and are in agreement with the current understanding of progression of AD. The proposed patient staging algorithm performed consistently better than that of state-of-the-art EBM methods. Event orderings obtained in simulation experiments were more accurate than those of other EBM methods and the estimated disease progression timeline was observed to correlate with the timeline of actual disease progression. The results of these experiments are encouraging and suggest that discriminative EBM is a promising approach to disease progression modeling.

The vascular facet of late-onset Alzheimer's disease: an essential factor in a complex multifactorial disorder

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This article provides a brief overview of relevant cerebrovascular mechanisms implicated in late-onset Alzheimer's disease (LOAD) development, and highlights the main reasons for incorporating novel cerebrovascular biomarkers to the models defining a multifactorial LOAD pathogenesis. We also discuss how novel brain mapping techniques and multifactorial data-driven models are having a critical role on understanding LOAD and may be particularly useful for identifying effective therapeutic agents for this disorder.

RECENT FINDINGS

A growing body of evidence supports that LOAD is a complex disorder, causally associated to a high multiplicity of pathologic mechanisms. New experimental and neuroimaging data, in combination with the recent use of integrative multifactorial data-driven models, support the early role of vascular factors in LOAD genesis and development. Among other relevant roles, the cerebrovascular system has a key modulatory effect on prion-like propagation, deposition and toxicity (e.g. Aβ, tau proteins). The early signs of vascular dysregulation during LOAD progression are notable both at the microscopic and the macroscopic scales.

SUMMARY

We emphasize that LOAD should be studied as a complex multifactorial disorder, not dominated by a dominant biological factor (e.g. Aβ), and without disregarding any relevant pathologic factor, such as vascular dysregulation. Cerebrovascular biomarkers are invaluable for defining multifactorial disease progression models as well as for evaluating the effectiveness of different therapeutic strategies.

Data-driven models of dominantly-inherited Alzheimer's disease progression

See Li and Donohue (doi:10.1093/brain/awy089) for a scientific commentary on this article.Dominantly-inherited Alzheimer's disease is widely hoped to hold the key to developing interventions for sporadic late onset Alzheimer's disease. We use emerging techniques in generative data-driven disease progression modelling to characterize dominantly-inherited Alzheimer's disease progression with unprecedented resolution, and without relying upon familial estimates of years until symptom onset. We retrospectively analysed biomarker data from the sixth data freeze of the Dominantly Inherited Alzheimer Network observational study, including measures of amyloid proteins and neurofibrillary tangles in the brain, regional brain volumes and cortical thicknesses, brain glucose hypometabolism, and cognitive performance from the Mini-Mental State Examination (all adjusted for age, years of education, sex, and head size, as appropriate). Data included 338 participants with known mutation status (211 mutation carriers in three subtypes: 163 PSEN1, 17 PSEN2, and 31 APP) and a baseline visit (age 19-66; up to four visits each, 1.1 ± 1.9 years in duration; spanning 30 years before, to 21 years after, parental age of symptom onset). We used an event-based model to estimate sequences of biomarker changes from baseline data across disease subtypes (mutation groups), and a differential equation model to estimate biomarker trajectories from longitudinal data (up to 66 mutation carriers, all subtypes combined). The two models concur that biomarker abnormality proceeds as follows: amyloid deposition in cortical then subcortical regions (∼24 ± 11 years before onset); phosphorylated tau (17 ± 8 years), tau and amyloid-β changes in cerebrospinal fluid; neurodegeneration first in the putamen and nucleus accumbens (up to 6 ± 2 years); then cognitive decline (7 ± 6 years), cerebral hypometabolism (4 ± 4 years), and further regional neurodegeneration. Our models predicted symptom onset more accurately than predictions that used familial estimates: root mean squared error of 1.35 years versus 5.54 years. The models reveal hidden detail on dominantly-inherited Alzheimer's disease progression, as well as providing data-driven systems for fine-grained patient staging and prediction of symptom onset with great potential utility in clinical trials.

Neuroimaging in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: current and emerging uses

INTRODUCTION

Several neuroimaging techniques have been used to define in vivo markers of pathological alterations underlying amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). Growing evidence supports the use of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and positron emission tomography (PET) for the non-invasive detection of central nervous system involvement in patients with ALS. Areas covered: A comprehensive overview of structural and functional neuroimaging applications in ALS is provided, focusing on motor and extra-motor involvement in the brain and the spinal cord. Implications for pathogenetic models, patient diagnosis, prognosis, monitoring, and the design of clinical trials are discussed. Expert commentary: State-of-the-art neuroimaging techniques provide fundamental instruments for the detection and quantification of upper motor neuron and extra-motor brain involvement in ALS, with relevance for both pathophysiologic investigation and clinical practice. Network-based analysis of structural and functional connectivity alterations and multimodal approaches combining several neuroimaging measures are promising tools for the development of novel diagnostic and prognostic markers to be used at the individual patient level.

An image-based model of brain volume biomarker changes in Huntington's disease

Objective

Determining the sequence in which Huntington's disease biomarkers become abnormal can provide important insights into the disease progression and a quantitative tool for patient stratification. Here, we construct and present a uniquely fine‐grained model of temporal progression of Huntington's disease from premanifest through to manifest stages.

Methods

We employ a probabilistic event‐based model to determine the sequence of appearance of atrophy in brain volumes, learned from structural MRI in the Track‐HD study, as well as to estimate the uncertainty in the ordering. We use longitudinal and phenotypic data to demonstrate the utility of the patient staging system that the resulting model provides.

Results

The model recovers the following order of detectable changes in brain region volumes: putamen, caudate, pallidum, insula white matter, nonventricular cerebrospinal fluid, amygdala, optic chiasm, third ventricle, posterior insula, and basal forebrain. This ordering is mostly preserved even under cross‐validation of the uncertainty in the event sequence. Longitudinal analysis performed using 6 years of follow‐up data from baseline confirms efficacy of the model, as subjects consistently move to later stages with time, and significant correlations are observed between the estimated stages and nonimaging phenotypic markers.

Interpretation

We used a data‐driven method to provide new insight into Huntington's disease progression as well as new power to stage and predict conversion. Our results highlight the potential of disease progression models, such as the event‐based model, to provide new insight into Huntington's disease progression and to support fine‐grained patient stratification for future precision medicine in Huntington's disease.

Data-Driven Sequence of Changes to Anatomical Brain Connectivity in Sporadic Alzheimer's Disease

Model-based investigations of transneuronal spreading mechanisms in neurodegenerative diseases relate the pattern of pathology severity to the brain's connectivity matrix, which reveals information about how pathology propagates through the connectivity network. Such network models typically use networks based on functional or structural connectivity in young and healthy individuals, and only end-stage patterns of pathology, thereby ignoring/excluding the effects of normal aging and disease progression. Here, we examine the sequence of changes in the elderly brain's anatomical connectivity over the course of a neurodegenerative disease. We do this in a data-driven manner that is not dependent upon clinical disease stage, by using event-based disease progression modeling. Using data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative dataset, we sequence the progressive decline of anatomical connectivity, as quantified by graph-theory metrics, in the Alzheimer's disease brain. Ours is the first single model to contribute to understanding all three of the nature, the location, and the sequence of changes to anatomical connectivity in the human brain due to Alzheimer's disease. Our experimental results reveal new insights into Alzheimer's disease: that degeneration of anatomical connectivity in the brain may be a viable, even early, biomarker and should be considered when studying such neurodegenerative diseases.