Differential diagnosis of neurodegenerative dementias with the explainable MRI based machine learning algorithm MUQUBIA

Biomarker-based differential diagnosis of the most common forms of dementia is becoming increasingly important. Machine learning (ML) may be able to address this challenge. The aim of this study was to develop and interpret a ML algorithm capable of differentiating Alzheimer's dementia, frontotemporal dementia, dementia with Lewy bodies and cognitively normal control subjects based on sociodemographic, clinical, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) variables. 506 subjects from 5 databases were included. MRI images were processed with FreeSurfer, LPA, and TRACULA to obtain brain volumes and thicknesses, white matter lesions and diffusion metrics. MRI metrics were used in conjunction with clinical and demographic data to perform differential diagnosis based on a Support Vector Machine model called MUQUBIA (Multimodal Quantification of Brain whIte matter biomArkers). Age, gender, Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR) Dementia Staging Instrument, and 19 imaging features formed the best set of discriminative features. The predictive model performed with an overall Area Under the Curve of 98%, high overall precision (88%), recall (88%), and F1 scores (88%) in the test group, and good Label Ranking Average Precision score (0.95) in a subset of neuropathologically assessed patients. The results of MUQUBIA were explained by the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method. The MUQUBIA algorithm successfully classified various dementias with good performance using cost-effective clinical and MRI information, and with independent validation, has the potential to assist physicians in their clinical diagnosis.

Forecasting individual progression trajectories in Alzheimer's disease

The anticipation of progression of Alzheimer's disease (AD) is crucial for evaluations of secondary prevention measures thought to modify the disease trajectory. However, it is difficult to forecast the natural progression of AD, notably because several functions decline at different ages and different rates in different patients. We evaluate here AD Course Map, a statistical model predicting the progression of neuropsychological assessments and imaging biomarkers for a patient from current medical and radiological data at early disease stages. We tested the method on more than 96,000 cases, with a pool of more than 4,600 patients from four continents. We measured the accuracy of the method for selecting participants displaying a progression of clinical endpoints during a hypothetical trial. We show that enriching the population with the predicted progressors decreases the required sample size by 38% to 50%, depending on trial duration, outcome, and targeted disease stage, from asymptomatic individuals at risk of AD to subjects with early and mild AD. We show that the method introduces no biases regarding sex or geographic locations and is robust to missing data. It performs best at the earliest stages of disease and is therefore highly suitable for use in prevention trials.

Italian, European, and international neuroinformatics efforts: An overview

Neuroinformatics is a research field that focusses on software tools capable of identifying, analysing, modelling, organising and sharing multiscale neuroscience data. Neuroinformatics has exploded in the last two decades with the emergence of the Big Data phenomenon, characterised by the so-called 3Vs (volume, velocity and variety), which provided neuroscientists with an improved ability to acquire and process data faster and more cheaply thanks to technical improvements in clinical, genomic and radiological technologies. This situation has led to a 'data deluge', as neuroscientists can routinely collect more study data in a few days than they could in a year just a decade ago. To address this phenomenon, several neuroimaging-focussed neuroinformatics platforms have emerged, funded by national or transnational agencies, with the following goals: (i) development of tools for archiving and organising analytical data (XNAT, REDCap and LabKey); (ii) development of data-driven models evolving from reductionist approaches to multidimensional models (RIN, IVN, HBD, EuroPOND, E-DADS and GAAIN BRAIN); and (iii) development of e-infrastructures to provide sufficient computational power and storage resources (neuGRID, HBP-EBRAINS, LONI and CONP). Although the scenario is still fragmented, there are technological and economical attempts at both national and international levels to introduce high standards for open and Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable (FAIR) neuroscience worldwide.

Inter-Cohort Validation of SuStaIn Model for Alzheimer's Disease

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative disorder which spans several years from preclinical manifestations to dementia. In recent years, interest in the application of machine learning (ML) algorithms to personalized medicine has grown considerably, and a major challenge that such models face is the transferability from the research settings to clinical practice. The objective of this work was to demonstrate the transferability of the Subtype and Stage Inference (SuStaIn) model from well-characterized research data set, employed as training set, to independent less-structured and heterogeneous test sets representative of the clinical setting. The training set was composed of MRI data of 1043 subjects from the Alzheimer’s disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI), and the test set was composed of data from 767 subjects from OASIS, Pharma-Cog, and ViTA clinical datasets. Both sets included subjects covering the entire spectrum of AD, and for both sets volumes of relevant brain regions were derived from T1-3D MRI scans processed with Freesurfer v5.3 cross-sectional stream. In order to assess the predictive value of the model, subpopulations of subjects with stable mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and MCIs that progressed to AD dementia (pMCI) were identified in both sets. SuStaIn identified three disease subtypes, of which the most prevalent corresponded to the typical atrophy pattern of AD. The other SuStaIn subtypes exhibited similarities with the previously defined hippocampal sparing and limbic predominant atrophy patterns of AD. Subject subtyping proved to be consistent in time for all cohorts and the staging provided by the model was correlated with cognitive performance. Classification of subjects on the basis of a combination of SuStaIn subtype and stage, mini mental state examination and amyloid-β_1-42 cerebrospinal fluid concentration was proven to predict conversion from MCI to AD dementia on par with other novel statistical algorithms, with ROC curves that were not statistically different for the training and test sets and with area under curve respectively equal to 0.77 and 0.76. This study proves the transferability of a SuStaIn model for AD from research data to less-structured clinical cohorts, and indicates transferability to the clinical setting.

Multi-study validation of data-driven disease progression models to characterize evolution of biomarkers in Alzheimer's disease

Understanding the sequence of biological and clinical events along the course of Alzheimer's disease provides insights into dementia pathophysiology and can help participant selection in clinical trials. Our objective is to train two data-driven computational models for sequencing these events, the Event Based Model (EBM) and discriminative-EBM (DEBM), on the basis of well-characterized research data, then validate the trained models on subjects from clinical cohorts characterized by less-structured data-acquisition protocols.

Seven independent data cohorts were considered totalling 2389 cognitively normal (CN), 1424 mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and 743 Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients. The Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) data set was used as training set for the constriction of disease models while a collection of multi-centric data cohorts was used as test set for validation. Cross-sectional information related to clinical, cognitive, imaging and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers was used.

Event sequences obtained with EBM and DEBM showed differences in the ordering of single biomarkers but according to both the first biomarkers to become abnormal were those related to CSF, followed by cognitive scores, while structural imaging showed significant volumetric decreases at later stages of the disease progression. Staging of test set subjects based on sequences obtained with both models showed good linear correlation with the Mini Mental State Examination score (R²_EBM = 0.866; R²_DEBM = 0.906). In discriminant analyses, significant differences (p-value ≤ 0.05) between the staging of subjects from training and test sets were observed in both models. No significant difference between the staging of subjects from the training and test was observed (p-value > 0.05) when considering a subset composed by 562 subjects for which all biomarker families (cognitive, imaging and CSF) are available.

Event sequence obtained with DEBM recapitulates the heuristic models in a data-driven fashion and is clinically plausible. We demonstrated inter-cohort transferability of two disease progression models and their robustness in detecting AD phases. This is an important step towards the adoption of data-driven statistical models into clinical domain.

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Data-driven event sequences describe evolution of relevant biomarkers in AD.

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Agreement between event sequences and heuristic AD progression models

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Accuracy in classifying subjects from clinical cohorts up to 91%

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Staging of subjects and MMSE scores of individuals show linear relation.

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Transferability of AD progression models based on research data to clinical cohorts