Using joint species distribution models for evaluating how species‐to‐species associations depend on the environmental context

Application of Environmental DNA Metabarcoding for Predicting Anthropogenic Pollution in Rivers

Rivers are among the most threatened freshwater ecosystems, and anthropogenic activities are affecting both river structures and water quality. While assessing the organisms can provide a comprehensive measure of a river's ecological status, it is limited by the traditional morphotaxonomy-based biomonitoring. Recent advances in environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding allow to identify prokaryotes and eukaryotes in one sequencing run, and could thus allow unprecedented resolution. Whether such eDNA-based data can be used directly to predict the pollution status of rivers as a complementation of environmental data remains unknown. Here we used eDNA metabarcoding to explore the main stressors of rivers along which community structure changes, and to identify the method's potential for predicting pollution status based on eDNA data. We showed that a broad range of taxa in bacterial, protistan, and metazoan communities could be profiled with eDNA. Nutrients were the main driving stressor affecting communities' structure, alpha diversity, and the ecological network. We specifically observed that the relative abundance of indicative OTUs was significantly correlated with nutrient levels. These OTUs data could be used to predict the nutrient status up to 79% accuracy on testing data sets. Thus, our study gives a novel approach to predicting the pollution status of rivers by eDNA data.

Uncovering the drivers of host-associated microbiota with joint species distribution modelling

In addition to the processes structuring free-living communities, host-associated microbiota are directly or indirectly shaped by the host. Therefore, microbiota data have a hierarchical structure where samples are nested under one or several variables representing host-specific factors, often spanning multiple levels of biological organization. Current statistical methods do not accommodate this hierarchical data structure and therefore cannot explicitly account for the effect of the host in structuring the microbiota. We introduce a novel extension of joint species distribution models (JSDMs) which can straightforwardly accommodate and discern between effects such as host phylogeny and traits, recorded covariates such as diet and collection site, among other ecological processes. Our proposed methodology includes powerful yet familiar outputs seen in community ecology overall, including (a) model-based ordination to visualize and quantify the main patterns in the data; (b) variance partitioning to assess how influential the included host-specific factors are in structuring the microbiota; and (c) co-occurrence networks to visualize microbe-to-microbe associations.

How to make more out of community data? A conceptual framework and its implementation as models and software

Community ecology aims to understand what factors determine the assembly and dynamics of species assemblages at different spatiotemporal scales. To facilitate the integration between conceptual and statistical approaches in community ecology, we propose Hierarchical Modelling of Species Communities (HMSC) as a general, flexible framework for modern analysis of community data. While non-manipulative data allow for only correlative and not causal inference, this framework facilitates the formulation of data-driven hypotheses regarding the processes that structure communities. We model environmental filtering by variation and covariation in the responses of individual species to the characteristics of their environment, with potential contingencies on species traits and phylogenetic relationships. We capture biotic assembly rules by species-to-species association matrices, which may be estimated at multiple spatial or temporal scales. We operationalise the HMSC framework as a hierarchical Bayesian joint species distribution model, and implement it as R- and Matlab-packages which enable computationally efficient analyses of large data sets. Armed with this tool, community ecologists can make sense of many types of data, including spatially explicit data and time-series data. We illustrate the use of this framework through a series of diverse ecological examples.