A nomogram for predicting prognostic value of inflammatory response biomarkers in decompensated cirrhotic patients without acute-on-chronic liver failure

A nomogram integrating hepatic reserve and tumor characteristics for hepatocellular carcinoma following curative liver resection

BACKGROUND

Because of the mutual influence of liver dysfunction and malignancy, overall survival (OS) is a composite clinical endpoint in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We developed a nomogram integrating albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, a new index of hepatic reserve, and tumor characteristics of HCC for predicting OS following curative liver resection.

METHODS

The nomogram was built to estimate the probabilities of 1, 3, and 5-y OS based on training cohort of 709 HCC, which was validated in an international independent dataset. The prognostic value of the nomogram was determined by concordance index (C-index), time-dependent receiver operating characteristics (tdROC), and decision curves, comparing with ALBI grade alone, the Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP), the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC), and Okuda staging systems.

RESULTS

Independent factors derived from multivariable Cox analysis of the training cohort to predict OS were tumor grade, microvascular invasion, tumor size and ALBI grade which were assembled into nomogram. The calibration curves for probability of OS showed optimal agreement between nomogram-prediction and actual observation, which was tested in validation cohort. The C-index, tdROC and decision curves showed the nomogram was superior to CLIP, ALBI grade, BCLC and Okuda. The patients could also be stratified into low, intermediate risk, and high risk of the mortality by the normogram in both development and validation cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram integrating hepatic reserve and tumor characteristics provided a highly accurate estimation of OS in patients with HCC after curative liver resection, contributing to assess patient prognosis.

The role of neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio for the assessment of liver fibrosis and cirrhosis: a systematic review

Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is widely used to assess inflammatory diseases. We performed a systematic review to explore the prognostic role of NLR for the assessment of liver fibrosis and cirrhosis. Areas covered: We searched the PubMed and EMBASE databases for the eligible papers which explored the association between NLR and liver fibrosis/cirrhosis or investigated the prognostic value of NLR in cirrhotic patients. Expert commentary: In accordance with assessment of liver fibrosis stage, we classified papers into four subgroups by etiology. For the patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) there was a significant association between NLR and fibrosis stage and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease activity score (NAS), while NLR had a negative correlation with fibrosis stage for the patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). As for the patients with and chronic hepatitis C (CHC), NLR might not be significantly associated with fibrosis stage. Moreover, NLR seemed to be significantly useful for predicting outcomes in cirrhotic patients. Hence, NLR might be associated with liver fibrosis stage, especially in patients with NAFLD. Furthermore, NLR might be a useful biomarker for evaluating the prognosis in cirrhotic patients.