An assessment of invasion risk from assisted migration

Assessing the benefits and risks of translocations in changing environments: a genetic perspective

Translocations are being increasingly proposed as a way of conserving biodiversity, particularly in the management of threatened and keystone species, with the aims of maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem function under the combined pressures of habitat fragmentation and climate change. Evolutionary genetic considerations should be an important part of translocation strategies, but there is often confusion about concepts and goals. Here, we provide a classification of translocations based on specific genetic goals for both threatened species and ecological restoration, separating targets based on 'genetic rescue' of current population fitness from those focused on maintaining adaptive potential. We then provide a framework for assessing the genetic benefits and risks associated with translocations and provide guidelines for managers focused on conserving biodiversity and evolutionary processes. Case studies are developed to illustrate the framework.

River restoration success depends on the species pool of the immediate surroundings

Previous studies evaluating the success of river restorations have rarely found any consistent effects on benthic invertebrate assemblages. In this study, we analyzed data from 24 river restoration projects in Germany dating back 1 to 12 years and 1231 data sets from adjacent river reaches that lie within 0-5, 5-10, and 10-15 km rings centered on the restored sites. We calculated restoration success and recolonization potential of adjacent river reaches based on stream-type-specific subsets of taxa indicative for good or bad habitat quality. On average, the restorations did not improve the benthic invertebrate community quality. However, we show that restoration success depends on the presence of source populations of desired taxa in the surrounding of restored sites. Only where source populations of additional desired taxa existed within a 0-5 km ring around the restored sites were benthic invertebrate assemblages improved by the restoration. Beyond the 5-km rings, this recolonization effect was no longer detected. We present here the first field results to support the debated argument that a lack of source populations in the areas surrounding restored sites may play an important role in the failure to establish desired invertebrate communities by the means of river restorations. In contrast, long-range dispersal of invertebrates seems to play a subordinate role in the recolonization of restored sites. However, because the surroundings of the restored sites were far from good ecological quality, the potential for improvement of restored sites was limited.

Challenges and opportunities in implementing managed relocation for conservation of freshwater species

The rapidity of climate change is predicted to exceed the ability of many species to adapt or to disperse to more climatically favorable surroundings. Conservation of these species may require managed relocation (also called assisted migration or assisted colonization) of individuals to locations where the probability of their future persistence may be higher. The history of non-native species throughout the world suggests managed relocation may not be applicable universally. Given the constrained existence of freshwater organisms within highly dendritic networks containing isolated ponds, lakes, and rivers, managed relocation may represent a useful conservation strategy. Yet, these same distinctive properties of freshwater ecosystems may increase the probability of unintended ecological consequences. We explored whether managed relocation is an ecologically sound conservation strategy for freshwater systems and provided guidelines for identifying candidates and localities for managed relocation. A comparison of ecological and life-history traits of freshwater animals associated with high probabilities of extirpation and invasion suggests that it is possible to select species for managed relocation to minimize the likelihood of unintended effects to recipient ecosystems. We recommend that translocations occur within the species' historical range and optimally within the same major river basin and that lacustrine and riverine species be translocated to physically isolated seepage lakes and upstream of natural or artificial barriers, respectively, to lower the risk of secondary spread across the landscape. We provide five core recommendations to enhance the scientific basis of guidelines for managed relocation in freshwater environments: adopt the term managed translocation to reflect the fact that individuals will not always be reintroduced within their historical native range; examine the trade-off between facilitation of individual movement and the probability of range expansion of non-native species; determine which species and locations might be immediately considered for managed translocation; adopt a hypothetico-deductive framework by conducting experimental trials to introduce species of conservation concern into new areas within their historical range; build on previous research associated with species reintroductions through communication and synthesis of case studies.

The good, the bad and the recovery in an assisted migration

BACKGROUND

Assisted migration or translocation of species to ameliorate effects of habitat loss or changing environment is currently under scrutiny as a conservation tool. A large scale experiment of assisted migration over hundreds of kilometres was tested on a morph from a commercial fishery of southern rock lobster Jasus edwardsii, to enhance depleted populations, improve the yield and sustainability of the fishery, and test resilience to a changing climate.

METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Approximately 10,000 lower-valued, pale-coloured lobsters were moved from deep water to inshore sites (2 in Tasmania [TAS] and 2 in South Australia [SA]) where the high-value, red morph occurs. In TAS this was a northwards movement of 1° latitude. Growth was measured only in TAS lobsters, and reproductive status was recorded in lobsters from all locations. Pale females (TAS) grew 4 times faster than resident pale lobsters from the original site and twice as fast as red lobsters at their new location. Approximately 30% of translocated pale lobsters deferred reproduction for one year after release (SA and TAS), and grew around 1 mm yr(-1) less compared to translocated pale lobsters that did not defer reproduction. In spite of this stress response to translocation, females that deferred reproduction still grew 2-6 mm yr(-1) more than lobsters at the source site. Lobsters have isometric growth whereby volume increases as a cube of length. Consequently despite the one-year hiatus in reproduction, increased growth increases fecundity of translocated lobsters, as the increase in size provided a larger volume for producing and incubating eggs in future years.

CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE

Assisted migration improved egg production and growth, despite a temporary stress response, and offers a tool to improve the production, sustainability and resilience of the fishery.

Is the climate right for pleistocene rewilding? Using species distribution models to extrapolate climatic suitability for mammals across continents

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used for extrapolation, or predicting suitable regions for species under new geographic or temporal scenarios. However, SDM predictions may be prone to errors if species are not at equilibrium with climatic conditions in the current range and if training samples are not representative. Here the controversial "Pleistocene rewilding" proposal was used as a novel example to address some of the challenges of extrapolating modeled species-climate relationships outside of current ranges. Climatic suitability for three proposed proxy species (Asian elephant, African cheetah and African lion) was extrapolated to the American southwest and Great Plains using Maxent, a machine-learning species distribution model. Similar models were fit for Oryx gazella, a species native to Africa that has naturalized in North America, to test model predictions. To overcome biases introduced by contracted modern ranges and limited occurrence data, random pseudo-presence points generated from modern and historical ranges were used for model training. For all species except the oryx, models of climatic suitability fit to training data from historical ranges produced larger areas of predicted suitability in North America than models fit to training data from modern ranges. Four naturalized oryx populations in the American southwest were correctly predicted with a generous model threshold, but none of these locations were predicted with a more stringent threshold. In general, the northern Great Plains had low climatic suitability for all focal species and scenarios considered, while portions of the southern Great Plains and American southwest had low to intermediate suitability for some species in some scenarios. The results suggest that the use of historical, in addition to modern, range information and randomly sampled pseudo-presence points may improve model accuracy. This has implications for modeling range shifts of organisms in response to climate change.

The value of species and the ethical foundations of assisted colonization

Discourse around assisted colonization focuses on the ecological risks, costs, and uncertainties associated with the practice, as well as on its technical feasibility and alternative approaches to it. Nevertheless, the ethical underpinnings of the case for assisted colonization are claims about the value of species. A complete discussion of assisted colonization needs to include assessment of these claims. For each type of value that species are thought to possess it is necessary to determine whether it is plausible that species possess the type of value and, if so, to what extent their possessing it justifies assisted colonization. I conducted such an assessment for each of the predominant types of value ascribed to species: ecological, instrumental (including option value), existence, and intrinsic value (including interest-based, objective, and valuer-dependent intrinsic value). The vast majority of species, including several that have been proposed as candidates for assisted colonization, have much less value than is often presumed. Moreover, with respect to some types of value, assisted colonization would not fully preserve the value of the target species even if it were to keep the target species in existence. Therefore, the case for assisted colonization is significantly weaker and more qualified than its advocates often suppose. There may be exceptional species for which assisted colonization is well justified--and for this reason, case-by-case assessment is necessary--but in general the burden of justification generated by the ecological risks associated with assisted colonization is not met by the value potentially preserved by assisted colonization. This suggests that assisted colonization ought to have, at most, a very minor role in the portfolio of ecosystem management practices, even as it pertains to species conservation under conditions of rapid climate change.

The ecosystem-service chain and the biological diversity crisis

The losses that are being incurred of the Earth's biological diversity, at all levels, are now staggering. The trend lines for future loss are steeply upward as new adverse drivers of change come into play. The political processes for matching this crisis are now inadequate and the science needs to address this issue are huge and slow to fulfil, even though strong advances have been made. A more integrated approach to evaluating biodiversity in terms that are meaningful to the larger community is needed that can provide understandable metrics of the consequences to society of the losses that are occurring. Greater attention is also needed in forecasting likely diversity-loss scenarios in the near term and strategies for alleviating detrimental consequences. At the international level, the Convention on Biological Diversity must be revisited to make it more powerful to meet the needs that originally motivated its creation. Similarly, at local and regional levels, an ecosystem-service approach to conservation can bring new understanding to the value, and hence the need for protection, of the existing natural capital.

Multidimensional evaluation of managed relocation

Managed relocation (MR) has rapidly emerged as a potential intervention strategy in the toolbox of biodiversity management under climate change. Previous authors have suggested that MR (also referred to as assisted colonization, assisted migration, or assisted translocation) could be a last-alternative option after interrogating a linear decision tree. We argue that numerous interacting and value-laden considerations demand a more inclusive strategy for evaluating MR. The pace of modern climate change demands decision making with imperfect information, and tools that elucidate this uncertainty and integrate scientific information and social values are urgently needed. We present a heuristic tool that incorporates both ecological and social criteria in a multidimensional decision-making framework. For visualization purposes, we collapse these criteria into 4 classes that can be depicted in graphical 2-D space. This framework offers a pragmatic approach for summarizing key dimensions of MR: capturing uncertainty in the evaluation criteria, creating transparency in the evaluation process, and recognizing the inherent tradeoffs that different stakeholders bring to evaluation of MR and its alternatives.

Five potential consequences of climate change for invasive species

Scientific and societal unknowns make it difficult to predict how global environmental changes such as climate change and biological invasions will affect ecological systems. In the long term, these changes may have interacting effects and compound the uncertainty associated with each individual driver. Nonetheless, invasive species are likely to respond in ways that should be qualitatively predictable, and some of these responses will be distinct from those of native counterparts. We used the stages of invasion known as the "invasion pathway" to identify 5 nonexclusive consequences of climate change for invasive species: (1) altered transport and introduction mechanisms, (2) establishment of new invasive species, (3) altered impact of existing invasive species, (4) altered distribution of existing invasive species, and (5) altered effectiveness of control strategies. We then used these consequences to identify testable hypotheses about the responses of invasive species to climate change and provide suggestions for invasive-species management plans. The 5 consequences also emphasize the need for enhanced environmental monitoring and expanded coordination among entities involved in invasive-species management.