Addition of tumor multiplicity improves the prognostic performance of the hepatoma arterial-embolization prognostic score

Proposal of a New Risk Score for Patients Treated with Transarterial Chemoembolization due to Recurrent Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Curative Resection: A Multicenter Study

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Prognostic models are lacking for patients with recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) following surgical resection. This study devised and validated a new hepatoma arterial-embolization prognostic (HAP) score optimized for use in patients undergoing treatment with transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) for recurrence subsequent to surgical resection of HCC.

METHODS

Training cohort (n=424) and validation cohort (n=350) patients with recurrent HCC after resection treated with TACE between 2003 and 2016 were enrolled. Cox regression and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) analyses were used to identify risk factors for survival and to calculate the predictive performance of risk scores, respectively.

RESULTS

The median age of the study population was 59.2 years. α-Fetoprotein >400 ng/mL (hazard ratio [HR]=1.815), serum albumin ≤3.5 g/dL (HR=1.966), tumor number ≥2 (HR=1.425), tumor size >5 cm at resection or recurrence (HR=1.356), segmental portal vein invasion at resection or recurrence (HR=2.032), and time from resection to recurrence ≤1 years (HR=1.849) independently predicted survival (all p<0.05). The postoperative HAP (pHAP) model based on the rounded HRs of these variables showed an AUC of 0.723 for predicting survival at 3 years, which was significantly higher than AUCs of other HAP-based models, including HAP, modified HAP, and modified HAP-II scores (0.578-0.621) (all p<0.05). The accuracy of pHAP was maintained in the entire cohort (n=774; AUC=0.776 at 3 years).

CONCLUSIONS

A new pHAP score optimized for patients treated with TACE due to recurrent HCC after resection showed acceptable accuracy and was externally validated. Further studies of means by which to select treatment options other than TACE for high-risk patients according to pHAP scores are warranted.

Prediction of Survival Among Patients Receiving Transarterial Chemoembolization for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Response-Based Approach

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The heterogeneity of intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and the widespread use of transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) outside recommended guidelines have encouraged the development of scoring systems that predict patient survival. The aim of this study was to build and validate statistical models that offer individualized patient survival prediction using response to TACE as a variable.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

Clinically relevant baseline parameters were collected for 4,621 patients with HCC treated with TACE at 19 centers in 11 countries. In some of the centers, radiological responses (as assessed by modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors [mRECIST]) were also accrued. The data set was divided into a training set, an internal validation set, and two external validation sets. A pre-TACE model ("Pre-TACE-Predict") and a post-TACE model ("Post-TACE-Predict") that included response were built. The performance of the models in predicting overall survival (OS) was compared with existing ones. The median OS was 19.9 months. The factors influencing survival were tumor number and size, alpha-fetoprotein, albumin, bilirubin, vascular invasion, cause, and response as assessed by mRECIST. The proposed models showed superior predictive accuracy compared with existing models (the hepatoma arterial embolization prognostic score and its various modifications) and allowed for patient stratification into four distinct risk categories whose median OS ranged from 7 months to more than 4 years.

CONCLUSIONS

A TACE-specific and extensively validated model based on routinely available clinical features and response after first TACE permitted patient-level prognostication.

A differential risk assessment and decision model for Transarterial chemoembolization in hepatocellular carcinoma based on hepatic function

BACKGROUND

The decision of transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) initiation and/or repetition remains challenging in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The aim was to develop a prognostic scoring system to guide TACE initiation/repetition.

METHODS

A total of 597 consecutive patients who underwent TACE as their initial treatment for unresectable HCC were included. We derived a prediction model using independent risk factors for overall survival (OS), which was externally validated in an independent cohort (n = 739).

RESULTS

Independent risk factors of OS included Albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, maximal tumor size, alpha-fetoprotein, and tumor response to initial TACE, which were used to develop a scoring system ("ASAR"). C-index values for OS were 0.733 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.570-0.871) in the derivation, 0.700 (95% CI = 0.445-0.905) in the internal validation, and 0.680 (95% CI = 0.652-0.707) in the external validation, respectively. Patients with ASAR< 4 showed significantly longer OS than patients with ASAR≥4 in all three datasets (all P < 0.001). Among Child-Pugh class B patients, a modified model without TACE response, i.e., "ASA(R)", discriminated OS with a c-index of 0.788 (95% CI, 0.703-0.876) in the derivation, and 0.745 (95% CI, 0.646-0.862) in the internal validation, and 0.670 (95% CI, 0.605-0.725) in the external validation, respectively. Child-Pugh B patients with ASA(R) < 4 showed significantly longer OS than patients with ASA(R) ≥ 4 in all three datasets (all P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

ASAR provides refined prognostication for repetition of TACE in patients with unresectable HCC. For Child-Pugh class B patients, a modified model with baseline factors might guide TACE initiation.

Predictive performance of the mHAP-II score in a real-life western cohort with hepatocellular carcinoma following trans-arterial chemoembolisation with drug-eluting beads (DEB-TACE)

Objectives

To evaluate the predictive performance of the modified hepatoma arterial embolisation prognostic II (mHAP-II) score in a real-life western hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cohort treated with drug-eluting bead-TACE and compare the mHAP-II with other scores in this cohort.

Methods

One hundred seventy-nine HCC patients (mean age 77 (± 9) years, 87% male) with one or more drug-eluting bead (DEB)-TACE sessions using 100–300 μm microspheres were retrospectively analysed. Performance analysis of the mHAP-II score was based on Mann-Whitney U tests, the Kaplan-Meier method, log-rank tests, receiver operating characteristics, Akaike’s information criterion and Cox regression models.

Results

In this population, HCC risk factors were mainly alcohol abuse (31%) and hepatitis C (28%). The median survival of the entire cohort was 29.4 months. mHAP-II classification of the cohort was mHAP-II B (30%), C (41%) and D (23%) respectively. Survival of all subgroups differed significantly from each other (each p < 0.05). Area under the curve for receiver operating characteristic was 0.60 and Akaike’s information criterion was 21.8 (p = 0.03), indicating a superior performance of mHAP-II score compared with HAP score and BCLC. Tumour number ≥ two (HR 1.54), alpha-fetoprotein > 400 μg/l (HR 1.14), serum albumin < 3.6 g/dl (HR 1.63) and total bilirubin > 0.9 mg/dl (HR 1.58) contributed significantly in Cox proportional hazards regression (each p < 0.05).

Conclusion

The mHAP-II score can predict survival outcomes of western HCC patients undergoing DEB-TACE and further subdivide this heterogeneous group; however, certain limitations concerning the predictive power of mHAP-II score must be taken into account.

Key Points

• This retrospective study evaluated the predictive performance of the modified hepatoma arterial embolisation prognostic II (mHAP-II) score in a real-life western HCC cohort treated with drug-eluting bead-TACE.

• Survival of all mHAP-II subgroups differed significantly, area under the curve for mHAP-II was 0.60 and Akaike’s information criterion was 21.8.

• The mHAP-II score can predict survival outcomes of western HCC patients undergoing DEB-TACE and further subdivide this heterogeneous group. However, because the study is underpowered, true survival prediction may be more difficult to infer.

Validation and evaluation of clinical prediction systems for first and repeated transarterial chemoembolization in unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma: A Chinese multicenter retrospective study

BACKGROUND

The treatment outcome of transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) in unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) varies greatly due to the clinical heterogeneity of the patients. Therefore, several prognostic systems have been proposed for risk stratification and candidate identification for first TACE and repeated TACE (re-TACE).

AIM

To investigate the correlations between prognostic systems and radiological response, compare the predictive abilities, and integrate them in sequence for outcome prediction.

METHODS

This nationwide multicenter retrospective cohort consisted of 1107 unresectable HCC patients in 15 Chinese tertiary hospitals from January 2010 to May 2016. The Hepatoma Arterial-embolization Prognostic (HAP) score system and its modified versions (mHAP, mHAP2 and mHAP3), as well as the six-and-twelve criteria were compared in terms of their correlations with radiological response and overall survival (OS) prediction for first TACE. The same analyses were conducted in 912 patients receiving re-TACE to evaluate the ART (assessment for re-treatment with TACE) and ABCR (alpha-fetoprotein, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer, Child-Pugh and Response) systems for post re-TACE survival (PRTS).

RESULTS

All the prognostic systems were correlated with radiological response achieved by first TACE, and the six-and-twelve criteria exhibited the highest correlation (Spearman R = 0.39, P = 0.026) and consistency (Kappa = 0.14, P = 0.019), with optimal performance by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.71 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.68-0.74]. With regard to the prediction of OS, the mHAP3 system identified patients with a favorable outcome with the highest concordance (C)-index of 0.60 (95%CI: 0.57-0.62) and the best area under the receiver operating characteristic curve at any time point during follow-up; whereas, PRTS was well-predicted by the ABCR system with a C-index of 0.61 (95%CI: 0.59-0.63), rather than ART. Finally, combining the mHAP3 and ABCR systems identified candidates suitable for TACE with an improved median PRTS of 36.6 mo, compared with non-candidates with a median PRTS of 20.0 mo (log-rank test P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Radiological response to TACE is closely associated with tumor burden, but superior prognostic prediction could be achieved with the combination of mHAP3 and ABCR in patients with unresectable liver-confined HCC.

A survey on transarterial chemoembolization refractoriness and a real-world treatment pattern for hepatocellular carcinoma in Korea

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is a standard treatment for intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but there is much controversy about TACE refractoriness. The aim of this study was to identify trends in the actual clinical application of TACE and recognition of TACE refractoriness by Korean experts.

METHODS

In total, 17 questionnaires on TACE refractoriness were administered to 161 clinicians via an online survey. Multiple answers were allowed for some questions.

RESULTS

Most clinicians agreed that there is a need for standardization of TACE application through specific scoring systems (n=124, 77.0%). TACE refractoriness was predominantly expected by participants when recurrences were detected within 1 month (n=70, 43.5%), there were 4 to 6 tumors (n=77, 47.8%), the maximal tumor size was 3-5 cm (n=49, 30.4%), and when there was insufficient tumor necrosis despite TACE being repeated more than three times (n=78, 48.4%). Overall, sorafenib therapy (n=137) and radiotherapy (n=114) were preferred when repeated TACE was considered ineffective.

CONCLUSION

Treatment of HCC is often based on the clinical judgment of clinicians because of the heterogeneity among individuals. Experts need to continue discussions on the standardization and sub-classification of HCC treatment guidelines in Korea.

Hepatocellular carcinoma macroscopic gross appearance on imaging: predictor of outcome after transarterial chemoembolization in a real-life multicenter French cohort

BACKGROUND

Conventional transarterial chemoembolization (cTACE) with lipiodol is widely performed in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) unsuitable for curative treatment. Additional tumor parameters such as HCC macroscopic appearance based on imaging might be helpful for transarterial chemoembolization prognostication and management.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 405 patients with HCC who underwent cTACE between 2008 and 2016 from a real-life multicenter French cohort were retrospectively reviewed. Tumors were classified into two macroscopic types according to HCC gross appearance on imaging: nodular versus non-nodular. The study population was stratified into two groups: derivation and validation cohorts. Independent prognostic factors of survival based on multivariate cox regression models were determined and then assessed in the validation set. Thereafter, time to progression (TTP) and radiological response rate were investigated for each prognostic factors of survival.

RESULTS

Median overall survival (OS) was 35 months for Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage A, 22 months for BCLC stage B and 12 months for BCLC stage C patients (P < 0.0001). The corresponding TTP for these patients was 12 (7-17) months, 5 (3-6) months and 1.2 (1.2-3) months (P < 0.0001). Multivariate analysis revealed that tumors size and number, non-nodular type, alpha-fetoprotein, aspartate aminotransferase serum levels and impairment of performance status-1 were independent predictors of survival among the study groups. Non-nodular type was the most powerful factor that influences OS, TTP and radiological response rate for the recommended transarterial chemoembolization candidates. TTP was consistent with OS within each stage.

CONCLUSION

HCC macroscopic appearance on imaging is a determinant predictor of outcome after cTACE in a real-life multicenter cohort.

Alpha-fetoprotein assessment for hepatocellular carcinoma after transarterial chemoembolization

PURPOSE

To evaluate whether AFP classification criteria correlate with tumor response measured using the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) and predicate survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after transarterial chemoembolization (TACE).

METHODS

Data from 143 consecutive patients with unresectable HCC and elevated AFP (> 20 ng/mL), who underwent TACE as initial treatment between January 2011 and December 2015 were collected, retrospectively. AFP response was classified as follows: complete response, normalization of AFP; partial response, > 50% decrease from baseline; stable disease, - 50 to + 30% change from baseline; or progressive disease, > 30% increase from baseline. Response rates according to AFP and EASL criteria were compared, and associations between the AFP response and overall survival (OS) were evaluated.

RESULTS

The k value for agreement between AFP criteria and EASL criteria was 0.52 (moderate), with response rates of 42.7% and 41.3%, respectively (P = 0.811). The OS of responders was significantly longer compared with non-responders for both AFP (21 vs. 6 months, P < 0.001) and EASL (23 vs. 6 months, P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis revealed that the AFP response (hazard ratio [HR], 0.430, 95% CI, 0.233-0.794; P = 0.007), EASL response (HR, 0.343; 95% CI, 0.176-0.666; P = 0.002), and macroscopic vascular invasion (HR, 2.104; 95% CI, 1.403-3.154; P < 0.001) were significantly associated with OS.

CONCLUSIONS

The defined AFP classification criteria was moderate correlated with EASL criteria and predicted the outcome in patients with HCC who underwent TACE.

A new ALBI-based model to predict survival after transarterial chemoembolization for BCLC stage B hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is a standard treatment for Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage B hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but the outcome varied. This study aimed to develop a model to predict the outcome of TACE in HCC patients.

METHODS

Consecutive 570 treatment-naïve BCLC stage B HCC patients undergoing TACE as the initial treatment from 2007 to 2016 were retrospectively enrolled. Factors associated with survival were analysed. Patients undergoing TACE from 2007 to 2011 constituted the training cohort (n = 293), while patients undergoing TACE from 2012 to 2016 constituted the validation cohort (n = 277). Homogeneity and corrected Akaike information criterion (AICc) were compared between each prognostic model.

RESULTS

A total of 1796 TACE sessions were performed for the 570 patients during the median follow-up period of 18.3 months. By multivariate analysis, beyond up-to-11 criteria (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.694, P < .001), alpha-foetoprotein >200 ng/mL (HR = 1.771, P < .001) and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade 2 or 3 (HR = 1.817, P < .001) were independent predictors of overall survival (OS) in the training cohort. An ALBI-TAE model based on the three independent predictors of OS from the training cohort was developed to classify HCC patients into four subgroups. The performance of the ALBI-TAE model was superior to other prognostic models with lowest AICc values and highest homogeneity in both the training and validation datasets as well as the overall cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

Albumin-bilirubin grade is an important factor associated with survival in BCLC stage B HCC patients undergoing TACE. ALBI-TAE model can be applied to select patients who can get most benefit from TACE.

Intermediate stage hepatocellular carcinoma: a summary review

It is well known that intermediate stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) encompasses the widest class of patients with this disease. The main characteristic of this special sub-group of patients is that it is extensively heterogenous. This substantial heterogeneity is due to the wide range of liver functions of such patients and variable tumor numbers and sizes. Real world clinical data show huge support for transarterial chemo-embolization (TACE) as a therapeutic modality for intermediate stage HCC, applied in 50%-60% of those class of patients. There are special considerations in various international guidelines regarding treatment allocation in intermediate stage HCC. There is an epidemiological difference in HCC in eastern and western cohorts, and various guidelines have been proposed. In patients with HCC, it has frequently been reported that there is poor correlation between the clinical benefit and real gain in patient condition and the conventional way of tumor response assessment after locoregional treatments. This is due to the evaluation criteria in addition to the scoring systems used for treatment allocation in those patients. It became clear that intermediate stage HCC patients receiving TACE need a proper prognostic score that offers valid clinical prediction and supports proper decision-making. Also, it is the proper time to study more treatment options beyond TACE, such as multimodal regimens for this class of patients. In this review, we tried to provide a summary of the challenges and future directions in managing patients with intermediate stage HCC.

Development of a prognostic score for recommended TACE candidates with hepatocellular carcinoma: A multicentre observational study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Previous prognostic scores for transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) were mainly derived from real-world settings, which are beyond guideline recommendations. A robust model for outcome prediction and risk stratification of recommended TACE candidates is lacking. We aimed to develop an easy-to-use tool specifically for these patients.

METHODS

Between January 2010 and May 2016, 1,604 treatment-naïve patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), Child-Pugh A5-B7 and performance status 0 undergoing TACE were included from 24 tertiary centres. Patients were randomly divided into training (n = 807) and validation (n = 797) cohorts. A prognostic model was developed and subsequently validated. Predictive performance and discrimination were further evaluated and compared with other prognostic models.

RESULTS

The final presentation of the model was "linear predictor = largest tumour diameter (cm) + tumour number", which consistently outperformed other currently available models in both training and validation datasets as well as in different subgroups. The thirtieth percentile and the third quartile of the linear predictor, namely 6 and 12, were further selected as cut-off values, leading to the "six-and-twelve" score which could divide patients into 3 strata with the sum of tumour size and number ≤6, >6 but ≤12, and >12 presenting significantly different median survival of 49.1 (95% CI 43.7-59.4) months, 32.0 (95% CI 29.9-37.5) months, and 15.8 (95% CI 14.1-17.7) months, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The six-and-twelve score may prove an easy-to-use tool to stratify recommended TACE candidates (Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage-A/B) and predict individual survival with favourable performance and discrimination. Moreover, the score could stratify these patients in clinical practice as well as help design clinical trials with comparable criteria involving these patients. Further external validation of the score is required.

LAY SUMMARY

There is currently no prognostic model specifically developed for recommended or ideal transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) candidates with hepatocellular carcinoma, despite these patients being frequently identified as the best target population in pivotal randomized controlled trials. The six-and-twelve score provides patient survival prediction, especially in ideal candidates of TACE, outperforming other currently available models in both training and validation sets, as well as different subgroups. With cut-off values of 6 and 12, the score can stratify ideal TACE candidates into 3 strata with significantly different outcomes and may shed light on risk stratification of these patients in clinical practice as well as in clinical trials.

Feasibility of dynamic risk assessment for patients with repeated trans-arterial chemoembolization for hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Hepatoma arterial-embolization prognostic (HAP) score and its modifications (modified HAP [mHAP] and mHAP-II), consisting of some or all of the following factors of tumor size, number, alpha-fetoprotein, bilirubin, and serum albumin, have been found to predict outcomes after trans-arterial chemoembolization (TACE) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We investigated the feasibility of using HAP-related risk scores for dynamic risk assessment during repeated TACE.

METHODS

A total of 619 HCC patients treated with TACE from two institutions between 2003 and 2010 were included.

RESULTS

Patients with A-B class risk scores showed significantly better survival than those with C-D class risk scores at the first (median 43.7 vs. 21.5 months for mHAP-II, 35.2 vs. 10.2 months for mHAP, and 39.8 vs. 18.6 months for HAP; all P < 0.001) and the second rounds of TACE (38.6 vs. 17.2 months for mHAP-II, 30.0 vs. 8.5 months for mHAP, and 32.6 vs. 17.3 months for HAP; all P < 0.001). Sequential assessment of risk scores at the second TACE round was applied for patients with A-B class risk scores at the first TACE round, which further identified two subgroups of A-B and C-D class risk scores with different outcomes (median survival 40.6 vs. 19.6 months for mHAP-II, 31.2 vs. 16.9 months for mHAP, and 35.8 vs. 21.0 months for HAP; all P < 0.001). Compared with mHAP and HAP, mHAP-II showed the highest likelihood ratio (22.61 vs. 14.67 and 13.97, respectively), highest linear trend (24.43 vs. 19.67 and 14.19, respectively), and lowest Akaike information criteria value (1432.51 vs. 3412.29 and 2296.98, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

All HAP-related risk scores dynamically predicted outcomes during repeated TACE. Sequential risk assessment using mHAP-II best identified optimal candidates for repeated TACE.

Development of a New Nomogram Including Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio to Predict Survival in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Undergoing Transarterial Chemoembolization

The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has recently been reported to predict the prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We explored whether NLR predicted the survival of patients with HCC undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE), and developed a predictive model. In total, 1697 patients with HCC undergoing TACE as first-line therapy at two university hospitals were enrolled (derivation set n = 921, internal validation set n = 395, external validation set n = 381). The tumor size, tumor number, AFP level, vascular invasion, Child-Pugh score, objective response after TACE, and NLR, selected as predictors of overall survival (OS) via multivariate Cox's regression model, were incorporated into a 14-point risk prediction model (SNAVCORN score). The time-dependent areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curves for OS at 1, 3, and 5 years predicted by the SNAVCORN score were 0.812, 0.734, and 0.700 in the derivation set. Patients were stratified into three risk groups by SNAVCORN score (low, 0-4; intermediate, 5-9; high, 10-14). Compared with the low-risk group, the intermediate-risk (HR 3.10, p < 0.001) and high-risk (HR 7.37, p < 0.001) groups exhibited significantly greater mortality. The prognostic performance of the SNAVCORN score including NLR in patients with HCC treated with TACE was remarkable, much better than those of the conventional scores. The SNAVCORN score will guide future HCC treatment decisions.

Refractoriness to transarterial chemoembolization in patients with recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma after curative resection

BACKGROUND/AIMS

It is important to identify patients who are refractory to transarterial chemoembolization (TACE), which is performed for the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We investigated the predictors of poor treatment outcomes in patients with recurrent HCC treated who were treated with TACE after curative resection.

METHODS

428 patients with recurrent HCC after curative resection who were treated with TACE were enrolled.

RESULTS

The median age of the study population was 59.2 years. On multivariate analysis, ≥2 TACE procedures within 6 months (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.898), and the des-gamma carboxyprothrombin level (HR = 1.000) independently predicted the progression to Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage C in patients with BCLC stage 0-B HCC (both P<0.05). In addition, ≥2 and ≥3 TACE procedures within 6 months independently predicted mortality in the entire study population (HR = 1.863 and 1.620, respectively). The probability of progression to BCLC stage C in patients with BCLC stage 0-B HCC and the mortality rate in the entire study population were significantly higher in patients treated with ≥2 TACE within 6 months than in those who underwent fewer procedures (P = 0.002 and P<0.001, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

More than 2 TACE procedures within 6 months might be associated with the refractoriness to TACE in patients with recurrent HCC after curative resection.

Critical systematic review on hepatic resection and transarterial chemoembolization for hepatocellular carcinoma

Whether to submit to transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) or hepatic resection (HR) patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is still a debated issue. We conducted a systematic review to critically analyze what evidence supports the use of TACE, in a specific clinical condition that can define HCC as 'intermediate'. In addition, we analyzed literature regarding the comparison between TACE and HR. Direct comparisons, between HR and TACE, strongly support the adoption of surgery for patients with large or multinodular HCCs since, albeit 'nonideal' surgical candidates, these patients can still obtain a survival benefit. Multidisciplinary teams can mitigate the different decision-making approach of surgeons and hepatologists with the aim of obtaining the best quality of care.

Validation of the SNACOR clinical scoring system after transarterial chemoembolisation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Background

Transarterial chemoembolisation is the standard of care for intermediate stage (BCLC B) hepatocellular carcinoma, but it is challenging to decide when to repeat or stop treatment. Here we performed the first external validation of the SNACOR (tumour Size and Number, baseline Alpha-fetoprotein, Child-Pugh and Objective radiological Response) risk prediction model.

Methods

A total of 1030 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma underwent transarterial chemoembolisation at our tertiary referral centre from January 2000 to December 2016. We determined the following variables that were needed to calculate the SNACOR at baseline: tumour size and number, alpha-fetoprotein level, Child-Pugh class, and objective radiological response after the first transarterial chemoembolisation. Overall survival, time-dependent area under receiver-operating characteristic curves, Harrell’s C-index, and the integrated Brier score were calculated to assess predictive ability. Finally, multivariate analysis was performed to identify independent predictors of survival.

Results

The study included 268 patients. Low, intermediate, and high SNACOR scores predicted a median survival of 31.5, 19.9, and 9.2 months, respectively. The areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for overall survival were 0.641, 0.633, and 0.609 at 1, 3, and 6 years, respectively. Harrell’s C-index was 0.59, and the integrated Brier Score was 0.175. Independent predictors of survival included tumour size (P < 0.001), baseline alpha-fetoprotein level (P < 0.001) and Child-Pugh class (P < 0.004). Objective radiological response (P = 0.821) and tumour number (P = 0.127) were not additional independent predictors of survival.

Conclusions

The SNACOR risk prediction model can be used to identify patients with a dismal prognosis after the first transarterial chemoembolisation who are unlikely to benefit from further transarterial chemoembolisation. However, Harrell’s C-index showed only moderate performance. Accordingly, this risk prediction model can only serve as one of several components used to make the decision about whether to repeat treatment.

Patterns and challenges of treatment sequencing in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: Experience from a German referral center

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most prevalent and lethal cancers. Several local and systemic therapies are available for patients with HCC depending on the stage of the disease. In clinical practice, treatment decision-making, and sequencing may be very heterogeneous.

METHODS

In this study, we retrospectively analyzed treatment algorithms in 2101 patients with HCC treated from 2000 to 2015 at Hannover Medical School, Germany.

RESULTS

Transarterial chemoembolization was the most common initial treatment (n = 545; 25.9%), followed by resection (n = 435, 20.7%), local-ablative procedures (n = 283, 13.5%), systemic therapies (n = 275, 13.1%), and liver transplantation (n = 52; 2.5%). Most patients were treated only once (n = 960; 59.6%). A total of 433 (26.9%) and 160 (9.9%) patients received a second line and third line treatment after recurrent or progressive disease. Patients with more than one treatment line were diagnosed at significantly earlier disease stages (P < 0.001). Using binary logistic regression, AFP ≤ 200 μg/L, albumin > 36 g/L, and small tumor size (≤50 mm) were identified as predictors of achieving more than one treatment line. Subsequent treatment stage migration to a therapy suggested for the next advanced stage occurred only in 56.9%, whereas 43.1% received treatments suggested for earlier disease stages. Only 16% of all treated patients received systemic therapy in the salvage setting.

CONCLUSION

Most patients were treated only once, and only a minority of patients received systemic treatment. The high dropout rate for subsequent therapies needs to be considered within therapy decision-making. There is an urgent need for prospective studies to define the best time point when to switch patients from local to systemic therapies.

Asia-Pacific clinical practice guidelines on the management of hepatocellular carcinoma: a 2017 update

There is great geographical variation in the distribution of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), with the majority of all cases worldwide found in the Asia-Pacific region, where HCC is one of the leading public health problems. Since the "Toward Revision of the Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL) HCC Guidelines" meeting held at the 25th annual conference of the APASL in Tokyo, the newest guidelines for the treatment of HCC published by the APASL has been discussed. This latest guidelines recommend evidence-based management of HCC and are considered suitable for universal use in the Asia-Pacific region, which has a diversity of medical environments.

Experience from a real-life cohort: outcome of 606 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma following transarterial chemoembolization

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most lethal cancers. Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) has been accepted as the standard care for intermediate stage disease.

METHODS

In this study, we characterized 606 with HCC patients from Hannover Medical School treated with TACE.

RESULTS

606 with HCC patients treated with TACE were identified between 2000 and 2015. Most patients (59.8%) were at intermediate stage. Following TACE, most patients subsequently received systemic therapy or best supportive care (BSC), whereas 227 (37.5%) patients were bridged to potentially curative local treatments. Depending on subsequent therapies, median post-TACE survival ranged from 7 to 162 months. Ascites, cholinesterase, c-reactive and alpha-feto protein and tumor size were identified as prognostic factors. These factors as well as the HAP, mHAP-II and STATE score also determined post-TACE survival independent of subsequent therapies. Hepatic function progressively deteriorated with repeated TACE sessions. Despite that, post-TACE survival was not shortened in frequently treated patients (≥5 times) as compared to patients treated 4 times or less (p = not significant [n.s.]). Patients treated ≥5 times with TACE received significantly more often systemic therapy following TACE (37.3%) as compared to patients with 3-4 (30.1%), 2 (27.4%) and 1 (21.8%) sessions (p < .05).

CONCLUSION

TACE is performed in a heterogeneous population as bridging therapy to other local treatments and palliative therapy. The long-term survival following TACE is determined by baseline tumor, patient-related factors and by subsequent therapies. Post-TACE survival is not shorter in patients with frequent treatments (≥5), and the rate of subsequent systemic treatments is higher compared to less frequently treated patients.

Refining prognosis after trans-arterial chemo-embolization for hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND & AIMS

To develop an individual prognostic calculator for patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing trans-arterial chemo-embolization (TACE).

METHODS

Data from two prospective databases, regarding 361 patients who received TACE as first-line therapy (2000-2012), were reviewed in order to refine available prognostic tools and to develop a continuous individual web-based prognostic calculator. Patients with neoplastic portal vein invasion were excluded from the analysis. The model was built following a bootstrap resampling procedure aimed at identifying prognostic predictors and by carrying out a 10-fold cross-validation for accuracy assessment by means of Harrell's c-statistic.

RESULTS

Number of tumours, serum albumin, serum total bilirubin, alpha-foetoprotein and maximum tumour size were selected as predictors of mortality following TACE with the bootstrap resampling technique. In the 10-fold cross-validation cohort, the model showed a Harrell's c-statistic of 0.649 (95% CI: 0.610-0.688), significantly higher than that of the Hepatoma Arterial-embolization Prognostic (HAP) score (0.589; 95% CI: 0.552-0.626; P = 0.001) and of the modified HAP-II score (0.611; 95% CI: 0.572-0.650; P = 0.005). Akaike's information criterion for the model was 2520; for the mHAP-II it was 2544 and for the HAP score it was 2554. A web-based calculator was developed for quick consultation at http://www.livercancer.eu/mhap3.html.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed individual prognostic model can provide an accurate prognostic prediction for each patient with unresectable HCC following treatment with TACE without class stratification. The availability of an online calculator can help physicians in daily clinical practice.