Mobile phone data for informing public health actions across the COVID-19 pandemic life cycle

Artificial intelligence and robotics on the frontlines of the pandemic response: the regulatory models for technology adoption and the development of resilient organisations in smart cities

Smart cities do not exist without robotics and Artificial Intelligence (AI). As the case of the COVID-19 pandemic shows, they can assist in combating the novel coronavirus and its effects, and preventing its spread. However, their deployment necessitate the most secure, safe, and efficient use. The purpose of this article is to address the regulatory framework for AI and robotics in the context of developing resilient organisations in smart cities during the COVID-19 pandemic. The study provides regulatory insights necessary to re-examine the strategic management of technology creation, dissemination, and application in smart cities, in order to address the issues regarding the strategic management of innovation policies nationally, regionally, and worldwide. To meet these goals, the article analyses government materials, such as strategies, policies, legislation, reports, and literature. It also juxtaposes materials and case studies, with the help of expert knowledge. The authors emphasise the imminent need for coordinated strategies to regulate AI and robots designed for improving digital and smart public health services globally.

Large-scale measurement of aggregate human colocation patterns for epidemiological modeling

To understand and model public health emergencies, epidemiologists need data that describes how humans are moving and interacting across physical space. Such data has traditionally been difficult for researchers to obtain with the temporal resolution and geographic breadth that is needed to study, for example, a global pandemic. This paper describes Colocation Maps, which are spatial network datasets that have been developed within Meta's Data For Good program. These Maps estimate how often people from different regions are colocated: in particular, for a pair of geographic regions x and y, these Maps estimate the rate at which a randomly chosen person from x and a randomly chosen person from y are simultaneously located in the same place during a randomly chosen minute in a given week. These datasets are well suited to parametrize metapopulation models of disease spread or to measure temporal changes in interactions between people from different regions; indeed, they have already been used for both of these purposes during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we show how Colocation Maps differ from existing data sources, describe how the datasets are built, provide examples of their use in compartmental modeling, and summarize ideas for further development of these and related datasets. Among the findings of this study, we observe that a pair of regions can exhibit high colocation despite few people moving between those regions. Additionally, for the purposes of clarifying how to interpret and utilize Colocation Maps, we scrutinize the Maps' built-in assumptions about representativeness and contact heterogeneity.

Epidemic Diffusion Network of Spain: A Mobility Model to Characterize the Transmission Routes of Disease

Human mobility drives the geographical diffusion of infectious diseases at different scales, but few studies focus on mobility itself. Using publicly available data from Spain, we define a Mobility Matrix that captures constant flows between provinces by using a distance-like measure of effective distance to build a network model with the 52 provinces and 135 relevant edges. Madrid, Valladolid and Araba/Álaba are the most relevant nodes in terms of degree and strength. The shortest routes (most likely path between two points) between all provinces are calculated. A total of 7 mobility communities were found with a modularity of 63%, and a relationship was established with a cumulative incidence of COVID-19 in 14 days (CI14) during the study period. In conclusion, mobility patterns in Spain are governed by a small number of high-flow connections that remain constant in time and seem unaffected by seasonality or restrictions. Most of the travels happen within communities that do not completely represent political borders, and a wave-like spreading pattern with occasional long-distance jumps (small-world properties) can be identified. This information can be incorporated into preparedness and response plans targeting locations that are at risk of contagion preventively, underscoring the importance of coordination between administrations when addressing health emergencies.

Digital public health leadership in the global fight for health security

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need to prioritise mature digital health and data governance at both national and supranational levels to guarantee future health security. The Riyadh Declaration on Digital Health was a call to action to create the infrastructure needed to share effective digital health evidence-based practices and high-quality, real-time data locally and globally to provide actionable information to more health systems and countries. The declaration proposed nine key recommendations for data and digital health that need to be adopted by the global health community to address future pandemics and health threats. Here, we expand on each recommendation and provide an evidence-based roadmap for their implementation. This policy document serves as a resource and toolkit that all stakeholders in digital health and disaster preparedness can follow to develop digital infrastructure and protocols in readiness for future health threats through robust digital public health leadership.

Quantifying Urban Activities Using Nodal Seismometers in a Heterogeneous Urban Space

Earth's surface is constantly vibrating due to natural processes inside and human activities on the surface of the Earth. These vibrations form the ambient seismic fields that are measured by sensitive seismometers. Compared with natural processes, anthropogenic vibrations dominate the seismic measurements at higher frequency bands, demonstrate clear temporal and cyclic variability, and are more heterogeneous in space. Consequently, urban ambient seismic fields are a rich information source for human activity monitoring. Improving from the conventional energy-based seismic spectral analysis, we utilize advanced signal processing techniques to extract the occurrence of specific urban activities, including motor vehicle counts and runner activities, from the high-frequency ambient seismic noise. We compare the seismic energy in different frequency bands with the extracted activity intensity at different locations within a one-kilometer radius and highlight the high-resolution information in the seismic data. Our results demonstrate the intense heterogeneity in a highly developed urban space. Different sectors of urban society serve different functions and respond differently when urban life is severely disturbed by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The anonymity of seismic data enabled an unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution, which potentially could be utilized by government regulators and policymakers for dynamic monitoring and urban management.

Modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model for assessing the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic in Seoul

Susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) models were applied to assess the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and to study the dynamic behavior of the COVID-19 pandemic. Recently, SEIR models have evolved to address the change of human mobility by some NPIs for predicting the new confirmed cases. However, the models have serious limitations when applied to Seoul. Seoul has two representative quarantine policies, i.e. social distancing and the ban on gatherings. Effects of the two policies need to be reflected in different functional forms in the model because changes in human mobility do not fully reflect the ban on gatherings. Thus we propose a modified SEIR model to assess the effectiveness of social distancing, ban on gatherings and vaccination strategies. The application of the modified SEIR model was illustrated by comparing the model output with real data.

Mobile Phone Data: A Survey of Techniques, Features, and Applications

Due to the rapid growth in the use of smartphones, the digital traces (e.g., mobile phone data, call detail records) left by the use of these devices have been widely employed to assess and predict human communication behaviors and mobility patterns in various disciplines and domains, such as urban sensing, epidemiology, public transportation, data protection, and criminology. These digital traces provide significant spatiotemporal (geospatial and time-related) data, revealing people's mobility patterns as well as communication (incoming and outgoing calls) data, revealing people's social networks and interactions. Thus, service providers collect smartphone data by recording the details of every user activity or interaction (e.g., making a phone call, sending a text message, or accessing the internet) done using a smartphone and storing these details on their databases. This paper surveys different methods and approaches for assessing and predicting human communication behaviors and mobility patterns from mobile phone data and differentiates them in terms of their strengths and weaknesses. It also gives information about spatial, temporal, and call characteristics that have been extracted from mobile phone data and used to model how people communicate and move. We survey mobile phone data research published between 2013 and 2021 from eight main databases, namely, the ACM Digital Library, IEEE Xplore, MDPI, SAGE, Science Direct, Scopus, SpringerLink, and Web of Science. Based on our inclusion and exclusion criteria, 148 studies were selected.

A dataset to assess mobility changes in Chile following local quarantines

Fighting the COVID-19 pandemic, most countries have implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions like wearing masks, physical distancing, lockdown, and travel restrictions. Because of their economic and logistical effects, tracking mobility changes during quarantines is crucial in assessing their efficacy and predicting the virus spread. Unlike many other heavily affected countries, Chile implemented quarantines at a more localized level, shutting down small administrative zones, rather than the whole country or large regions. Given the non-obvious effects of these localized quarantines, tracking mobility becomes even more critical in Chile. To assess the impact on human mobility of the localized quarantines, we analyze a mobile phone dataset made available by Telefónica Chile, which comprises 31 billion eXtended Detail Records and 5.4 million users covering the period February 26th to September 20th, 2020. From these records, we derive three epidemiologically relevant metrics describing the mobility within and between comunas. The datasets made available may be useful to understand the effect of localized quarantines in containing the COVID-19 pandemic.

Do regionally targeted lockdowns alter movement to non-lockdown regions? Evidence from Ontario, Canada

Regionally targeted interventions are being used by governments to slow the spread of COVID-19. In areas where free movement is not being actively restricted, there is uncertainty about how effective such regionally targeted interventions are due to the free movement of people between regions. We use mobile-phone network mobility data to test two hypotheses: 1) do regions targeted by exhibit increased outflows into other regions and 2) do regions targeted by interventions increase outflows specifically into areas with lesser restrictions. Our analysis focuses on two well-defined regionally targeted interventions in Ontario, Canada the first intervention as the first wave subsided (July 17, 2020) and the second intervention as we entered into new restrictions during the onset of the second wave (November 23, 2020). We use a difference-in-difference model to investigate hypothesis 1 and an interrupted time series model to investigate hypothesis 2, controlling for spatial effects (using a spatial-error model) in both cases. Our findings suggest that there that the regionally targeted interventions had a neutral effect (or no effect) on inter-regional mobility, with no significant differences associated with the interventions. We also found that overall inter-regional mobility was associated with socio-economic factors and the distance to the boundary of the intervention region. These findings are important as they should guide how governments design regionally targeted interventions (from a geographical perspective) considering observed patterns of mobility.

Examining the Human Activity-Intensity Change at Different Stages of the COVID-19 Pandemic across Chinese Working, Residential and Entertainment Areas

The COVID-19 pandemic has already resulted in more than 6 million deaths worldwide as of December 2022. The COVID-19 has also been greatly affecting the activity of the human population in China and the world. It remains unclear how the human activity-intensity changes have been affected by the COVID-19 spread in China at its different stages along with the lockdown and relaxation policies. We used four days of Location-based services data from Tencent across China to capture the real-time changes in human activity intensity in three stages of COVID-19-namely, during the lockdown, at the first stage of work resuming and at the stage of total work resuming-and observed the changes in different land use categories. We applied the mean decrease Gini (MDG) approach in random forest to examine how these changes are influenced by land attributes, relying on the CART algorithm in Python. This approach was also compared with Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR). Our analysis revealed that the human activity intensity decreased by 22-35%, 9-16% and 6-15%, respectively, in relation to the normal conditions before the spread of COVID-19 during the three periods. The human activity intensity associated with commercial sites, sports facilities/gyms and tourism experienced the relatively largest contraction during the lockdown. During the relaxations of restrictions, government institutions showed a 13.89% rise in intensity at the first stage of work resuming, which was the highest rate among all the working sectors. Furthermore, the GDP and road junction density were more influenced by the change in human activity intensity for all land use categories. The bus stop density was importantly associated with mixed-use land recovery during the relaxing stages, while the coefficient of density of population in entertainment land were relatively higher at these two stages. This study aims to provide additional support to investigate the human activity changes due to the spread of COVID-19 at different stages across different sectors.

Using unstable data from mobile phone applications to examine recent trajectories of retail centre recovery

The COVID-19 pandemic has changed the ways in which we shop, with significant impacts on retail and consumption spaces. Yet, empirical evidence of these impacts, specifically at the national level, or focusing on latter periods of the pandemic remain notably absent. Using a large spatio-temporal mobility dataset, which exhibits significant temporal instability, we explore the recovery of retail centres from summer 2021 to 2022, considering in particular how these responses are determined by the functional and structural characteristics of retail centres and their regional geography. Our findings provide important empirical evidence of the multidimensionality of retail centre recovery, highlighting in particular the importance of composition, e-resilience and catchment deprivation in determining such trajectories, and identifying key retail centre functions and regions that appear to be recovering faster than others. In addition, we present a use case for mobility data that exhibits temporal stability, highlighting the benefits of viewing mobility data as a series of snapshots rather than a complete time series. It is our view that such data, when controlling for temporal stability, can provide a useful way to monitor the economic performance of retail centres over time, providing evidence that can inform policy decisions, and support interventions to both acute and longer-term issues in the retail sector.

Generating mobility networks with generative adversarial networks

The increasingly crucial role of human displacements in complex societal phenomena, such as traffic congestion, segregation, and the diffusion of epidemics, is attracting the interest of scientists from several disciplines. In this article, we address mobility network generation, i.e., generating a city's entire mobility network, a weighted directed graph in which nodes are geographic locations and weighted edges represent people's movements between those locations, thus describing the entire mobility set flows within a city. Our solution is MoGAN, a model based on Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) to generate realistic mobility networks. We conduct extensive experiments on public datasets of bike and taxi rides to show that MoGAN outperforms the classical Gravity and Radiation models regarding the realism of the generated networks. Our model can be used for data augmentation and performing simulations and what-if analysis.

Varieties of Mobility Measures: Comparing Survey and Mobile Phone Data during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Human mobility has become a major variable of interest during the COVID-19 pandemic and central to policy decisions all around the world. To measure individual mobility, research relies on a variety of indicators that commonly stem from two main data sources: survey self-reports and behavioral mobility data from mobile phones. However, little is known about how mobility from survey self-reports relates to popular mobility estimates using data from the Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) and the Global Positioning System (GPS). Spanning March 2020 until April 2021, this study compares self-reported mobility from a panel survey in Austria to aggregated mobility estimates utilizing (1) GSM data and (2) Google's GPS-based Community Mobility Reports. Our analyses show that correlations in mobility changes over time are high, both in general and when comparing subgroups by age, gender, and mobility category. However, while these trends are similar, the size of relative mobility changes over time differs substantially between different mobility estimates. Overall, while our findings suggest that these mobility estimates manage to capture similar latent variables, especially when focusing on changes in mobility over time, researchers should be aware of the specific form of mobility different data sources capture.

The Apple Mobility Trends Data in Human Mobility Patterns during Restrictions and Prediction of COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

The objective of this systematic review with PRISMA guidelines is to discover how population movement information has epidemiological implications for the spread of COVID-19. In November 2022, the Web of Science and Scopus databases were searched for relevant reports for the review. The inclusion criteria are: (1) the study uses data from Apple Mobility Trends Reports, (2) the context of the study is about COVID-19 mobility patterns, and (3) the report is published in a peer-reviewed venue in the form of an article or conference paper in English. The review included 35 studies in the period of 2020-2022. The main strategy used for data extraction in this review is a matrix proposal to present each study from a perspective of research objective and outcome, study context, country, time span, and conducted research method. We conclude by pointing out that these data are not often used in studies and it is better to study a single country instead of doing multiple-country research. We propose topic classifications for the context of the studies as transmission rate, transport policy, air quality, re-increased activities, economic activities, and financial markets.

Assessment Model for Rapid Suppression of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission under Government Control

The rapid suppression of SARS-CoV-2 transmission remains a priority for maintaining public health security throughout the world, and the agile adjustment of government prevention and control strategies according to the spread of the epidemic is crucial for controlling the spread of the epidemic. Thus, in this study, a multi-agent modeling approach was developed for constructing an assessment model for the rapid suppression of SARS-CoV-2 transmission under government control. Different from previous mathematical models, this model combines computer technology and geographic information system to abstract human beings in different states into micro-agents with self-control and independent decision-making ability; defines the rules of agent behavior and interaction; and describes the mobility, heterogeneity, contact behavior patterns, and dynamic interactive feedback mechanism of space environment. The real geospatial and social environment in Taiyuan was considered as a case study. In the implemented model, the government agent could adjust the response level and prevention and control policies for major public health emergencies in real time according to the development of the epidemic, and different intervention strategies were provided to improve disease control methods in the simulation experiment. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed model is widely applicable, and it can not only judge the effectiveness of intervention measures in time but also analyze the virus transmission status in complex urban systems and its change trend under different intervention measures, thereby providing scientific guidance to support urban public health safety.

Changes in air pollution due to COVID-19 lockdowns in 2020: Limited effect on NO2, PM2.5, and PM10 annual means compared to the new WHO Air Quality Guidelines

Background

Lockdowns have been fundamental to decreasing disease transmission during the COVID-19 pandemic even after vaccines were available. We aimed to evaluate and compare changes in air quality during the first year of the pandemic in different cities around the world, investigate how these changes correlate with changes in mobility, and analyse how lockdowns affected air pollutants' annual means.

Methods

We compared the concentrations of NO₂, PM_2.5, and PM₁₀ in 42 cities around the world in the first months of the pandemic in 2020 to data from 2016-2019 and correlated them with changes in mobility using Human Development Indexes (HDIs). Cities with the highest decreases in air pollutants during this period were evaluated for the whole year 2020. We calculated the annual means for these cities and compared them to the new World Health Organization (WHO) Air Quality Guidelines. A Student's t-test (95% confidence interval) was used to evaluate significant changes.

Results

Highest decreases in NO₂, PM_2.5, and PM₁₀ were between -50 and -70%. Cities evaluated for the whole year 2020 generally showed a recovery in air pollution levels after the initial months of the pandemic, except for London. These changes positively correlated with year-long mobility indexes for NO₂ and PM_2.5 for some cities. The highest reductions in air pollutants' annual means were from -20 to -35%. In general, decreases were higher for NO₂, compared to PM_2.5 and PM₁₀. All analysed cities showed annual means incompliant with the new WHO Air Quality Guidelines for NO₂ of 10 μg/m³, with values 1.7 and 4.3 times higher. For PM_2.5, all cities showed values 1.3 to 7.6 times higher than the WHO Guidelines of 5 μg/m³, except for New Delhi, with a value 18 times higher. For PM₁₀, only New York complied with the new guidelines of 15 μg/m³ and all the other cities were 1.1 to 4.2 times higher, except for New Delhi, which was 11 times higher.

Conclusions

These data show that even during a pandemic that highly affected mobility and economic activities and decreased air pollution around the world, complying with the new WHO Guidelines will demand a global strategical effort in the way we generate energy, move in and around the cities, and manufacture products.

Future behaviours decision-making regarding travel avoidance during COVID-19 outbreaks

Human behavioural changes are poorly understood, and this limitation has been a serious obstacle to epidemic forecasting. It is generally understood that people change their respective behaviours to reduce the risk of infection in response to the status of an epidemic or government interventions. We must first identify the factors that lead to such decision-making to predict these changes. However, due to an absence of a method to observe decision-making for future behaviour, understanding the behavioural responses to disease is limited. Here, we show that accommodation reservation data could reveal the decision-making process that underpins behavioural changes, travel avoidance, for reducing the risk of COVID-19 infections. We found that the motivation to avoid travel with respect to only short-term future behaviours dynamically varied and was associated with the outbreak status and/or the interventions of the government. Our developed method can quantitatively measure and predict a large-scale population's behaviour to determine the future risk of COVID-19 infections. These findings enable us to better understand behavioural changes in response to disease spread, and thus, contribute to the development of reliable long-term forecasting of disease spread.

COVID-19 outbreaks analysis in the Valencian Region of Spain in the prelude of the third wave

Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to unprecedented social and mobility restrictions on a global scale. Since its start in the spring of 2020, numerous scientific papers have been published on the characteristics of the virus, and the healthcare, economic and social consequences of the pandemic. However, in-depth analyses of the evolution of single coronavirus outbreaks have been rarely reported.

Methods

In this paper, we analyze the main properties of all the tracked COVID-19 outbreaks in the Valencian Region between September and December of 2020. Our analysis includes the evaluation of the origin, dynamic evolution, duration, and spatial distribution of the outbreaks.

Results

We find that the duration of the outbreaks follows a power-law distribution: most outbreaks are controlled within 2 weeks of their onset, and only a few last more than 2 months. We do not identify any significant differences in the outbreak properties with respect to the geographical location across the entire region. Finally, we also determine the cluster size distribution of each infection origin through a Bayesian statistical model.

Discussion

We hope that our work will assist in optimizing and planning the resource assignment for future pandemic tracking efforts.

Effective resistance against pandemics: Mobility network sparsification for high-fidelity epidemic simulations

Network science has increasingly become central to the field of epidemiology and our ability to respond to infectious disease threats. However, many networks derived from modern datasets are not just large, but dense, with a high ratio of edges to nodes. This includes human mobility networks where most locations have a large number of links to many other locations. Simulating large-scale epidemics requires substantial computational resources and in many cases is practically infeasible. One way to reduce the computational cost of simulating epidemics on these networks is sparsification, where a representative subset of edges is selected based on some measure of their importance. We test several sparsification strategies, ranging from naive thresholding to random sampling of edges, on mobility data from the U.S. Following recent work in computer science, we find that the most accurate approach uses the effective resistances of edges, which prioritizes edges that are the only efficient way to travel between their endpoints. The resulting sparse network preserves many aspects of the behavior of an SIR model, including both global quantities, like the epidemic size, and local details of stochastic events, including the probability each node becomes infected and its distribution of arrival times. This holds even when the sparse network preserves fewer than 10% of the edges of the original network. In addition to its practical utility, this method helps illuminate which links of a weighted, undirected network are most important to disease spread.

Effective medical center finding during COVID-19 pandemic using a spatial DSS centered on ontology engineering

The global spread of the coronavirus has generated one of the most critical circumstances forcing healthcare systems to deal with it everywhere in the world. The complexity of crisis management, particularly in Iran, the unfamiliarity of the disease, and a lack of expertise, provided the foundation for researchers and implementers to propose innovative solutions. One of the most important obstacles in COVID-19 crisis management is the lack of information and the need for immediate and real-time data on the situation and appropriate solutions. Such complex problems fall into the category of semi-structured problems. In this respect, decision support systems use people's mental resources with computer capabilities to improve the quality of decisions. In synergetic situations, for instance, healthcare domains cooperating with spatial solutions, coming to a decision needs logical reasoning and high-level analysis. Therefore, it is necessary to add rich semantics to different classes of involved data, find their relationships, and conceptualize the knowledge domain. For the COVID-19 case in this study, ontologies allow for querying over such established relationships to find related medical solutions based on description logic. Bringing such capabilities to a spatial decision support system (SDSS) can help with better control of the COVID-19 pandemic. Ontology-based SDSS solution has been developed in this study due to the complexity of information related to coronavirus and its geospatial aspect in the city of Tehran. According to the results, ontology can rationalize different classes and properties about the user's clinical information, various medical centers, and users' priority. Then, based on the user's requests in a web-based SDSS, the system focuses on the inference made, advises the users on choosing the most related medical center, and navigates the user on a map. The ontology's capacity for reasoning, overcoming knowledge gaps, and combining geographic and descriptive criteria to choose a medical center all contributed to promising outcomes and the satisfaction of the sample community of evaluators.

Direct modelling from GPS data reveals daily-activity-dependency of effective reproduction number in COVID-19 pandemic

During the COVID-19 pandemic, governments faced difficulties in implementing mobility restriction measures, as no clear quantitative relationship between human mobility and infection spread in large cities is known. We developed a model that enables quantitative estimations of the infection risk for individual places and activities by using smartphone GPS data for the Tokyo metropolitan area. The effective reproduction number is directly calculated from the number of infectious social contacts defined by the square of the population density at each location. The difference in the infection rate of daily activities is considered, where the 'stay-out' activity, staying at someplace neither home nor workplace, is more than 28 times larger than other activities. Also, the contribution to the infection strongly depends on location. We imply that the effective reproduction number is sufficiently suppressed if the highest-risk locations or activities are restricted. We also discuss the effects of the Delta variant and vaccination.

Human mobility variations in response to restriction policies during the COVID-19 pandemic: An analysis from the Virus Watch community cohort in England, UK

Objective

Since the outbreak of COVID-19, public health and social measures to contain its transmission (e.g., social distancing and lockdowns) have dramatically changed people's lives in rural and urban areas globally. To facilitate future management of the pandemic, it is important to understand how different socio-demographic groups adhere to such demands. This study aims to evaluate the influences of restriction policies on human mobility variations associated with socio-demographic groups in England, UK.

Methods

Using mobile phone global positioning system (GPS) trajectory data, we measured variations in human mobility across socio-demographic groups during different restriction periods from Oct 14, 2020 to Sep 15, 2021. The six restriction periods which varied in degree of mobility restriction policies, denoted as "Three-tier Restriction," "Second National Lockdown," "Four-tier Restriction," "Third National Lockdown," "Steps out of Lockdown," and "Post-restriction," respectively. Individual human mobility was measured with respect to the time period people stayed at home, visited places outside the home, and traveled long distances. We compared these indicators across the six restriction periods and across socio-demographic groups.

Results

All human mobility indicators significantly differed across the six restriction periods, and the influences of restriction policies on individual mobility behaviors are correlated with socio-demographic groups. In particular, influences relating to mobility behaviors are stronger in younger and low-income groups in the second and third national lockdowns.

Conclusions

This study enhances our understanding of the influences of COVID-19 pandemic restriction policies on human mobility behaviors within different social groups in England. The findings can be usefully extended to support policy-making by investigating human mobility and differences in policy effects across not only age and income groups, but also across geographical regions.

Population disruption: observational study of changes in the population distribution of the UK during the COVID-19 pandemic

Background: Mobility data have demonstrated major changes in human movement patterns in response to COVID-19 and associated interventions in many countries. This involves sub-national redistribution, short-term relocations, and international migration. Aggregated mobile phone location data combined with small-area census population data allow changes in the population distribution of the UK to be quantified with high spatial and temporal granularity. Methods: In this paper, we combine detailed data from Facebook, measuring the location of approximately 6 million daily active Facebook users in 5km2 tiles in the UK with census-derived population estimates to measure population mobility and redistribution. We provide time-varying population estimates and assess spatial population changes with respect to population density and four key reference dates in 2020 (first UK lockdown, end of term, beginning of term, Christmas). Results: We show how population estimates derived from Facebook data vary compared to mid-2020 small area population estimates by UK national statistics agencies. We also estimate that between March 2020 and March 2021, the total population of the UK declined and we identify important spatial variations in this population change, showing that low-density areas have experienced lower population decreases than urban areas. We estimate that, for the top 10% highest population tiles, the population has decreased by 6.6%. Finally, we provide evidence that geographic redistributions of population within the UK coincide with dates of non-pharmaceutical interventions including lockdowns and movement restrictions, as well as seasonal patterns of migration around holiday dates. Conclusions: The methods used in this study reveal significant changes in population distribution at high spatial and temporal resolutions that have not previously been quantified by available demographic surveys in the UK. We found early indicators of potential longer-term changes in the population distribution of the UK although it is not clear if these changes will persist after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Keeping pace with the digital age: Envisioning information systems research as a platform

In this paper, we respond to Grover and Lyytinen (2022). We agree with them that the advent of the digital age is calling for a reconsideration of the role of theory and theorizing. We also think their proposal does not go far enough. The time is ripe to question the role of theory in our field more fundamentally. We propose to instead focus on establishing IS research as a platform through which we can collect, organize, and provide access to digital trace data from various sources to analyze contemporary socio-technical phenomena. We believe that such a move allows us to more fully unleash the unique socio-technical competences of our field in the digital age.

A machine learning algorithm to analyse the effects of vaccination on COVID-19 mortality

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), with new variants, continues to be a constant pandemic threat that is generating socio-economic and health issues in manifold countries. The principal goal of this study is to develop a machine learning experiment to assess the effects of vaccination on the fatality rate of the COVID-19 pandemic. Data from 192 countries are analysed to explain the phenomena under study. This new algorithm selected two targets: the number of deaths and the fatality rate. Results suggest that, based on the respective vaccination plan, the turnout in the participation in the vaccination campaign, and the doses administered, countries under study suddenly have a reduction in the fatality rate of COVID-19 precisely at the point where the cut effect is generated in the neural network. This result is significant for the international scientific community. It would demonstrate the effective impact of the vaccination campaign on the fatality rate of COVID-19, whatever the country considered. In fact, once the vaccination has started (for vaccines that require a booster, we refer to at least the first dose), the antibody response of people seems to prevent the probability of death related to COVID-19. In short, at a certain point, the fatality rate collapses with increasing doses administered. All these results here can help decisions of policymakers to prepare optimal strategies, based on effective vaccination plans, to lessen the negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis in socioeconomic and health systems.

Prevention of COVID-19 pandemic through technological innovation: ensuring global innovative capability, absorptive capacity, and adaptive healthcare competency

The study examines the role of technology transfer in preventing communicable diseases, including COVID-19, in a heterogeneous panel of selected 65 countries. The study employed robust least square regression and innovation accounting matrixes to get robust inferences. The results found that overall technological innovation, including innovative capability, absorptive capacity, and healthcare competency, helps reduce infectious diseases, including the COVID-19 pandemic. Patent applications, scientific and technical journal articles, trade openness, hospital beds, and physicians are the main factors supporting the reduction of infectious diseases, including the COVID-19 pandemic. Due to inadequate research and development, healthcare infrastructure expenditures have caused many communicable diseases. The increasing number of mobile phone subscribers and healthcare expenditures cannot minimize the coronavirus pandemic globally. The impulse response function shows an increasing number of patent applications, mobile penetration, and hospital beds that will likely decrease infectious diseases, including COVID-19. In contrast, insufficient resource spending would likely increase death rates from contagious diseases over a time horizon. It is high time to digitalize healthcare policies to control coronavirus worldwide.

Data-driven contact network models of COVID-19 reveal trade-offs between costs and infections for optimal local containment policies

While several non-pharmacological measures have been implemented for a few months in an effort to slow the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in the United States, the disease remains a danger in a number of counties as restrictions are lifted to revive the economy. Making a trade-off between economic recovery and infection control is a major challenge confronting many hard-hit counties. Understanding the transmission process and quantifying the costs of local policies are essential to the task of tackling this challenge. Here, we investigate the dynamic contact patterns of the populations from anonymized, geo-localized mobility data and census and demographic data to create data-driven, agent-based contact networks. We then simulate the epidemic spread with a time-varying contagion model in ten large metropolitan counties in the United States and evaluate a combination of mobility reduction, mask use, and reopening policies. We find that our model captures the spatial-temporal and heterogeneous case trajectory within various counties based on dynamic population behaviors. Our results show that a decision-making tool that considers both economic cost and infection outcomes of policies can be informative in making decisions of local containment strategies for optimal balancing of economic slowdown and virus spread.

Structural changes in intercity mobility networks of China during the COVID-19 outbreak: A weighted stochastic block modeling analysis

This study focuses on a mesoscale perspective to examine the structural and spatial changes in the intercity mobility networks of China from three phases of before, during and after the Wuhan lockdown due to the outbreak of COVID-19. Taking advantages of mobility big data from Baidu Maps, we introduce the weighted stochastic block model (WSBM) to measure and compare mesoscale structures in the three mobility networks. The results reveal significant changes to volume and structure of the intercity mobility networks. Particularly, WSBM results show that the intercity network transformed from a typical core-periphery structure in the normal phase, to a hybrid and asymmetric structure with mixing core-peripheries and local communities in the lockdown phase, and to a multi-community structure with nested core-peripheries during the post-lockdown phase. These changes suggest that the outbreak of COVID-19 and the travel restrictions deconstructed the original hierarchy of the intercity mobility network in China, making the network more locally or regionally fragmented, even at the recovery stage. This study provides new empirical and methodological insights into understanding mobility network dynamics under the impact of COVID-19, helping assess the emergency-induced impact as well as the recovery process of the mobility network.

Expanding the attack surface: Robust profiling attacks threaten the privacy of sparse behavioral data

Behavioral data, collected from our daily interactions with technology, have driven scientific advances. Yet, the collection and sharing of this data raise legitimate privacy concerns, as individuals can often be reidentified. Current identification attacks, however, require auxiliary information to roughly match the information available in the dataset, limiting their applicability. We here propose an entropy-based profiling model to learn time-persistent profiles. Using auxiliary information about a single target collected over a nonoverlapping time period, we show that individuals are correctly identified 79% of the time in a large location dataset of 0.5 million individuals and 65.2% for a grocery shopping dataset of 85,000 individuals. We further show that accuracy only slowly decreases over time and that the model is robust to state-of-the-art noise addition. Our results show that much more auxiliary information than previously believed can be used to identify individuals, challenging deidentification practices and what currently constitutes legally anonymous data.

Population disruption: estimating changes in population distribution of the UK during the COVID-19 pandemic

Mobility data have demonstrated major changes in human movement patterns in response to COVID-19 and associated interventions in many countries. This can involve sub-national redistribution, short-term relocations as well as international migration. In this paper, we combine detailed location data from Facebook measuring the location of approximately 6 million daily active Facebook users in 5km2 tiles in the UK with census-derived population estimates to measure population mobility and redistribution. We provide time-varying population estimates and assess spatial population changes with respect to population density and four key reference dates in 2020 (First lockdown, End of term, Beginning of term, Christmas). We also show how population estimates derived from the distribution of Facebook users vary compared to mid-2020 small area population estimates by the UK national statistics agencies. We estimate that between March 2020 and March 2021, the total population of the UK declined and we identify important spatial variations in this population change, showing that low-density areas have experienced lower population decreases than urban areas. We estimate that, for the top 10% highest population tiles, the population has decreased by 6.6%. Further, we provide evidence that geographic redistributions of population within the UK coincide with dates of non-pharmaceutical interventions including lockdowns and movement restrictions, as well as seasonal patterns of migration around holiday dates. The methods used in this study reveal significant changes in population distribution at high spatial and temporal resolutions that have not previously been quantified by available demographic surveys in the UK. We found early indicators of potential longer-term changes in the population distribution of the UK although it is not clear if these changes may persist after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Mobile Sensing in the COVID-19 Era: A Review

Background

During the COVID-19 pandemic, mobile sensing and data analytics techniques have demonstrated their capabilities in monitoring the trajectories of the pandemic, by collecting behavioral, physiological, and mobility data on individual, neighborhood, city, and national scales. Notably, mobile sensing has become a promising way to detect individuals' infectious status, track the change in long-term health, trace the epidemics in communities, and monitor the evolution of viruses and subspecies.

Methods

We followed the PRISMA practice and reviewed 60 eligible papers on mobile sensing for monitoring COVID-19. We proposed a taxonomy system to summarize literature by the time duration and population scale under mobile sensing studies.

Results

We found that existing literature can be naturally grouped in four clusters, including remote detection, long-term tracking, contact tracing, and epidemiological study. We summarized each group and analyzed representative works with regard to the system design, health outcomes, and limitations on techniques and societal factors. We further discussed the implications and future directions of mobile sensing in communicable diseases from the perspectives of technology and applications.

Conclusion

Mobile sensing techniques are effective, efficient, and flexible to surveil COVID-19 in scales of time and populations. In the post-COVID era, technical and societal issues in mobile sensing are expected to be addressed to improve healthcare and social outcomes.

Revealing spatiotemporal interaction patterns behind complex cities

Cities are typical dynamic complex systems that connect people and facilitate interactions. Revealing general collective patterns behind spatiotemporal interactions between residents is crucial for various urban studies, of which we are still lacking a comprehensive understanding. Massive cellphone data enable us to construct interaction networks based on spatiotemporal co-occurrence of individuals. The rank-size distributions of dynamic population of locations in all unit time windows are stable, although people are almost constantly moving in cities and hot-spots that attract people are changing over time in a day. A larger city is of a stronger heterogeneity as indicated by a larger scaling exponent. After aggregating spatiotemporal interaction networks over consecutive time windows, we reveal a switching behavior of cities between two states. During the "active" state, the whole city is concentrated in fewer larger communities, while in the "inactive" state, people are scattered in smaller communities. Above discoveries are universal over three cities across continents. In addition, a city stays in an active state for a longer time when its population grows larger. Spatiotemporal interaction segregation can be well approximated by residential patterns only in smaller cities. In addition, we propose a temporal-population-weighted-opportunity model by integrating a time-dependent departure probability to make dynamic predictions on human mobility, which can reasonably well explain the observed patterns of spatiotemporal interactions in cities.

COVID-19 lockdown introduces human mobility pattern changes for both Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao greater bay area and the San Francisco bay area

In response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, various countries have sought to control COVID-19 transmission by introducing non-pharmaceutical interventions. Restricting population mobility, by introducing social distancing, is one of the most widely used non-pharmaceutical interventions. Although similar population mobility restriction interventions were introduced, their impacts on COVID-19 transmission are often inconsistent across different regions and different time periods. These differences may provide critical information for tailoring COVID-19 control strategies. In this paper, anonymized high spatiotemporal resolution mobile-phone location data were employed to empirically analyze and quantify the impact of lockdowns on population mobility. Both the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) in China and the San Francisco Bay Area (SBA) in the United States were studied. In response to the lockdowns, a general reduction in population mobility was observed, but the structural changes in mobility are very different between the two bays: 1) GBA mobility decreased by approximately 74.0-80.1% while the decrease of SBA was about 25.0-42.1%; 2) compared to SBA, the GBA had smoother volatility in daily volume during the lockdown. The volatility change indexes for GBA and SBA were 2.55% and 7.52%, respectively; 3) the effect of lockdown on short- to long-distance mobility was similar in GBA while the medium- and long-distance impact was more pronounced in SBA.

Analysis of the impact of non-compulsory measures on human mobility in Japan during the COVID-19 pandemic

To curb the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, countries around the world have imposed restrictions on their population. This study quantitatively assessed the impact of non-compulsory measures on human mobility in Japan during the COVID-19 pandemic, through the analysis of large-scale anonymized mobile-phone data. The non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) method was used to analyze mobile statistics data from the Tokyo area. The results confirmed the suitability of the NMF method for extracting behavior patterns from aggregated mobile statistics data. Data analysis results indicated that although non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) measures adopted by the Japanese government are non-compulsory and rely largely on requests for voluntary self-restriction, they are effective in reducing population mobility and motivating people to practice social distancing. In addition, the current study compared the mobility change in three cities (i.e., Tokyo, Osaka, and Hiroshima), and discussed their similarity and difference in behavior pattern changes during the pandemic. It is expected that the analytical tool proposed in this study can be used to monitor mobility changes in real-time during the pandemic, as well as the long-term evolution of population mobility patterns in the post-pandemic phase.

Text Analysis of Evolving Emotions and Sentiments in COVID-19 Twitter Communication

Scientists and regular citizens alike search for ways to manage the widespread effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. While scientists are busy in their labs, other citizens often turn to online sources to report their experiences and concerns and to seek and share knowledge of the virus. The text generated by those users in online social media platforms can provide valuable insights about evolving users' opinions and attitudes. The objective of this research is to analyze text of such user disclosures to study human communication during a pandemic in four primary ways. First, we analyze Twitter tweet information, generated throughout the pandemic, to understand users' communications concerning COVID-19 and how those communications have evolved during the pandemic. Second, we analyze linguistic sentiment concepts (analytic, authentic, clout, and tone concepts) in different Twitter settings (sentiment in tweets with pictures or no pictures and tweets versus retweets). Third, we investigate the relationship between Twitter tweets with additional forms of internet activity, namely, Google searches and Wikipedia page views. Finally, we create and use a dictionary of specific COVID-19-related concepts (e.g., symptom of lost taste) to assess how the use of those concepts in tweets are related to the spread of information and the resulting influence of Twitter users. The analysis showed a surprisingly lack of emotion in the initial phases of the pandemic as people were information seeking. As time progressed, there were more expressions of sentiment, including anger. Further, tweets with and without pictures and/or video had statistically significant differences in text sentiment characteristics. Similarly, there were differences between the sentiment in tweets and retweets and tweets. We also found that Google and Wikipedia searches were predictive of sentiment in the tweets. Finally, a variable representing a dictionary of COVID-related concepts was statistically significant when related to users' Twitter influence score and number of retweets, illustrating the general impact of COVID-19 on Twitter and human communication. Overall, the results provide insights into human communication as well as models of human internet and social media use. These findings could be useful for the management of global challenges beyond, or different from, a pandemic.

Challenges in the Adoption of eHealth and mHealth for Adult Mental Health Management—Evidence from Romania

New methods of connecting physicians and patients have arisen. Technology is playing a crucial role and the concept of hybrid doctor–patient relationship is considered relevant for the competitive health management system. At the same time, the need for knowledge about implementing policies and best practices into the system is highly demanding. Digital tools, such as eHealth or mHealth can improve the traditional approach to consulting patients without requiring face-to-face interaction. However, due to the discussion surrounding the adoption of these technologies, the authors performed the study with two marketing research methods. The first is qualitative and is related to the opinions, attitudes, and beliefs of Romanian experts on the use of eHealth and mHealth for the prevention, detection, and treatment of mild mental disorders. The second method quantifies the opinions, attitudes, and behaviours of Romanian adults on their openness to adopt new technologies for mental health management. The main findings of the research highlight three factors that can increase the chances of adults using technology for health-related needs: (1) accessibility (2) data security, and (3) content. These are the main aspects that influence the well-being of both young and older adults, who both need support regarding mental health management.

Examining the COVID-19 case growth rate due to visitor vs. local mobility in the United States using machine learning

Travel patterns and mobility affect the spread of infectious diseases like COVID-19. However, we do not know to what extent local vs. visitor mobility affects the growth in the number of cases. This study evaluates the impact of state-level local vs. visitor mobility in understanding the growth with respect to the number of cases for COVID spread in the United States between March 1, 2020, and December 31, 2020. Two metrics, namely local and visitor transmission risk, were extracted from mobility data to capture the transmission potential of COVID-19 through mobility. A combination of the three factors: the current number of cases, local transmission risk, and the visitor transmission risk, are used to model the future number of cases using various machine learning models. The factors that contribute to better forecast performance are the ones that impact the number of cases. The statistical significance of the forecasts is also evaluated using the Diebold-Mariano test. Finally, the performance of models is compared for three waves across all 50 states. The results show that visitor mobility significantly impacts the case growth by improving the prediction accuracy by 33.78%. We also observe that the impact of visitor mobility is more pronounced during the first peak, i.e., March-June 2020.

A Review on Potential Electrochemical Point-of-Care Tests Targeting Pandemic Infectious Disease Detection: COVID-19 as a Reference

Fast and accurate point-of-care testing (POCT) of infectious diseases is crucial for diminishing the pandemic miseries. To fight the pandemic coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), numerous interesting electrochemical point-of-care (POC) tests have been evolved to rapidly identify the causal organism SARS-CoV-2 virus, its nucleic acid and antigens, and antibodies of the patients. Many of those electrochemical biosensors are impressive in terms of miniaturization, mass production, ease of use, and speed of test, and they could be recommended for future applications in pandemic-like circumstances. On the other hand, self-diagnosis, sensitivity, specificity, surface chemistry, electrochemical components, device configuration, portability, small analyzers, and other features of the tests can yet be improved. Therefore, this report reviews the developmental trend of electrochemical POC tests (i.e., test platforms and features) reported for the rapid diagnosis of COVID-19 and correlates any significant advancements with relevant references. POCTs incorporating microfluidic/plastic chips, paper devices, nanomaterial-aided platforms, smartphone integration, self-diagnosis, and epidemiological reporting attributes are also surfed to help with future pandemic preparedness. This review especially screens the low-cost and easily affordable setups so that management of pandemic disease becomes faster and easier. Overall, the review is a wide-ranging package for finding appropriate strategies of electrochemical POCT targeting pandemic infectious disease detection.

The role of contemporary digital tools and technologies in COVID-19 crisis: An exploratory analysis

Following the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been an increase in interest in using digital resources to contain pandemics. To avoid, detect, monitor, regulate, track, and manage diseases, predict outbreaks and conduct data analysis and decision-making processes, a variety of digital technologies are used, ranging from artificial intelligence (AI)-powered machine learning (ML) or deep learning (DL) focused applications to blockchain technology and big data analytics enabled by cloud computing and the internet of things (IoT). In this paper, we look at how emerging technologies such as the IoT and sensors, AI, ML, DL, blockchain, augmented reality, virtual reality, cloud computing, big data, robots and drones, intelligent mobile apps, and 5G are advancing health care and paving the way to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. The aim of this research is to look at possible technologies, processes, and tools for addressing COVID-19 issues such as pre-screening, early detection, monitoring infected/quarantined individuals, forecasting future infection rates, and more. We also look at the research possibilities that have arisen as a result of the use of emerging technology to handle the COVID-19 crisis.

Ethical, Legal, and Sociocultural Issues in the Use of Mobile Technologies and Call Detail Records Data for Public Health in the East African Region: Scoping Review

BACKGROUND

The exponential scale and pace of real-time data generated from mobile phones present opportunities for new insights and challenges across multiple sectors, including health care delivery and public health research. However, little attention has been given to the new ethical, social, and legal concerns related to using these mobile technologies and the data they generate in Africa.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this scoping review was to explore the ethical and related concerns that arise from the use of data from call detail records and mobile technology interventions for public health in the context of East Africa.

METHODS

We searched the PubMed database for published studies describing ethical challenges while using mobile technologies and related data in public health research between 2000 and 2020. A predefined search strategy was used as inclusion criteria with search terms such as "East Africa," "mHealth," "mobile phone data," "public health," "ethics," or "privacy." We screened studies using prespecified eligibility criteria through a two-stage process by two independent reviewers. Studies were included if they were (1) related to mobile technology use and health, (2) published in English from 2000 to 2020, (3) available in full text, and (4) conducted in the East African region. We excluded articles that (1) were conference proceedings, (2) studies presenting an abstract only, (3) systematic and literature reviews, (4) research protocols, and (5) reports of mobile technology in animal subjects. We followed the five stages of a published framework for scoping reviews recommended by Arksey and O'Malley. Data extracted included title, publication year, target population, geographic region, setting, and relevance to mobile health (mHealth) and ethics. Additionally, we used the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) Extension for Scoping Reviews checklist to guide the presentation of this scoping review. The rationale for focusing on the five countries in East Africa was their geographic proximity, which lends itself to similarities in technology infrastructure development.

RESULTS

Of the 94 studies identified from PubMed, 33 met the review inclusion criteria for the final scoping review. The 33 articles retained in the final scoping review represent studies conducted in three out of five East African countries: 14 (42%) from Uganda, 13 (39%) from Kenya, and 5 (16%) from Tanzania. Three main categories of concerns related to the use of mHealth technologies and mobile phone data can be conceptualized as (1) ethical issues (adequate informed consent, privacy and confidentiality, data security and protection), (2) sociocultural issues, and (3) regulatory/legal issues.

CONCLUSIONS

This scoping review identified major cross-cutting ethical, regulatory, and sociocultural concerns related to using data from mobile technologies in the East African region. A comprehensive framework that accounts for the critical concerns raised would be valuable for guiding the safe use of mobile technology data for public health research purposes.

Risk assessment for precise intervention of COVID-19 epidemic based on available big data and spatio-temporal simulation method: Empirical evidence from different public places in Guangzhou, China

Risk assessment of the intra-city spatio-temporal spreading of COVID-19 is important for providing location-based precise intervention measures, especially when the epidemic occurred in the densely populated and high mobile public places. The individual-based simulation has been proven to be an effective method for the risk assessment. However, the acquisition of individual-level mobility data is limited. This study used publicly available datasets to approximate dynamic intra-city travel flows by a spatio-temporal gravity model. On this basis, an individual-based epidemic model integrating agent-based model with the susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) model was proposed and the intra-city spatio-temporal spreading process of COVID-19 in eleven public places in Guangzhou China were explored. The results indicated that the accuracy of dynamic intra-city travel flows estimated by available big data and gravity model is acceptable. The spatio-temporal simulation method well presented the process of COVID-19 epidemic. Four kinds of spatial-temporal transmission patterns were identified and the pattern was highly dependent on the urban spatial structure and location. It indicated that location-based precise intervention measures should be implemented according to different regions. The approach of this research can be used by policy-makers to make rapid and accurate risk assessments and to implement intervention measures ahead of epidemic outbreaks.

Non-selective distribution of infectious disease prevention may outperform risk-based targeting

Epidemic control often requires optimal distribution of available vaccines and prophylactic tools, to protect from infection those susceptible. Well-established theory recommends prioritizing those at the highest risk of exposure. But the risk is hard to estimate, especially for diseases involving stigma and marginalization. We address this conundrum by proving that one should target those at high risk only if the infection-averting efficacy of prevention is above a critical value, which we derive analytically. We apply this to the distribution of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) among men-having-sex-with-men (MSM), a population particularly vulnerable to HIV. PrEP is effective in averting infections, but its global scale-up has been slow, showing the need to revisit distribution strategies, currently risk-based. Using data from MSM communities in 58 countries, we find that non-selective PrEP distribution often outperforms risk-based, showing that a logistically simpler strategy is also more effective. Our theory may help design more feasible and successful prevention.

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is an effective HIV prevention measure but identifying those most at risk to target for treatment is challenging. Here, the authors demonstrate that non-selective PrEP distribution outperforms targeted strategies when use is not consistent, and/or prevalence of untreated HIV is high.

Addressing the socioeconomic divide in computational modeling for infectious diseases

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted how structural social inequities fundamentally shape disease dynamics. Here, the authors provide a set of practical and methodological recommendations to address socioeconomic vulnerabilities in epidemic models.

Are All Urban Parks Robust to the COVID-19 Pandemic? Focusing on Type, Functionality, and Accessibility

Many people visited urban parks during the COVID-19 pandemic to reduce the negative effects of lack of physical activity, social isolation, anxiety, and depression. It is unclear whether all parks are robust against the pandemic, helping people sustain healthy daily living through the diverse activities within them. Nevertheless, few studies have identified the specific relationship between park visits and the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, this study aims to demonstrate how physical features such as type, functionality, and access influenced daily visiting to parks during the pandemic, using mobile phone data at a micro level. This study first classified urban parks as point-type parks with an area of less than 1 ha, plane-type parks with 1 ha or more, and line-type parks with elongated shapes, while measuring accessibility to residential, employment, transportation, and auxiliary facilities within the park. The study employed the multi-level regression model with random intercept to investigate the effects of differing park visits, focusing on Goyang city, South Korea. Our analysis results identified that easy access from home was more important than the park size during the pandemic. If we look at the types of parks, the use of both plane- and point-type parks increased more than that of line-type parks. However, line-type parks near homes, along with shopping and sports facilities, were found to be more robust to the pandemic. These findings can be informative to provide specific guidelines to fulfill the enhanced role of parks in sustaining public health during an infectious disease pandemic that may strike again.

Mobile phone data reveal the effects of violence on internal displacement in Afghanistan

Nearly 50 million people globally have been internally displaced due to conflict, persecution and human rights violations. However, the study of internally displaced persons—and the design of policies to assist them—is complicated by the fact that these people are often underrepresented in surveys and official statistics. We develop an approach to measure the impact of violence on internal displacement using anonymized high-frequency mobile phone data. We use this approach to quantify the short- and long-term impacts of violence on internal displacement in Afghanistan, a country that has experienced decades of conflict. Our results highlight how displacement depends on the nature of violence. High-casualty events, and violence involving the Islamic State, cause the most displacement. Provincial capitals act as magnets for people fleeing violence in outlying areas. Our work illustrates the potential for non-traditional data sources to facilitate research and policymaking in conflict settings.

Blumenstock et al. find that high-frequency mobile phone data can be used to precisely measure the impact of violence on internal displacement. Using data from Afghanistan, they show how patterns of displacement depend on the nature of violence.

Responsiveness of open innovation to COVID-19 pandemic: The case of data for good

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, countries around the world are facing one of the most severe health and economic crises of recent history and human society is called to figure out effective responses. However, as current measures have not produced valuable solutions, a multidisciplinary and open approach, enabling collaborations across private and public organizations, is crucial to unleash successful contributions against the disease. Indeed, the COVID-19 represents a Grand Challenge to which joint forces and extension of disciplinary boundaries have been recognized as main imperatives. As a consequence, Open Innovation represents a promising solution to provide a fast recovery. In this paper we present a practical application of this approach, showing how knowledge sharing constitutes one of the main drivers to tackle pressing social needs. To demonstrate this, we propose a case study regarding a data sharing initiative promoted by Facebook, the Data For Good program. We leverage a large-scale dataset provided by Facebook to the research community to offer a representation of the evolution of the Italian mobility during the lockdown. We show that this repository allows to capture different patterns of movements on the territory with increasing levels of detail. We integrate this information with Open Data provided by the Lombardy region to illustrate how data sharing can also provide insights for private businesses and local authorities. Finally, we show how to interpret Data For Good initiatives in light of the Open Innovation Framework and discuss the barriers to adoption faced by public administrations regarding these practices.

“Small” analysis of Big Data: An evaluation of the effects of social distancing in the United States

This paper proposes a “small” contextual analysis approach to big data and reports our experimental application of this approach in evaluating the effects of social distancing on focused subpopulations in U.S. society. We recognize the common and critical limitations of big data, especially the unrepresentativeness and the unpublished methodology of accessible datasets. Our proposed methodological approach is built upon recent works on data ontology, especially the recognition that big data are essentially remaining digital footprints of human life in need of additional data of contextual factors for valid and meaningful interpretation. It guides the selection and processing of big data to make big data small and structured and thus articulable with traditional social sciences data and usable to conventional social sciences methods. In our experimental case study, we apply our sampling strategy developed from traditional social science data to Google’s mobility dataset for our analysis using primarily a Difference In Difference (DID) model. The results of this case study are of timely value to policy evaluation and public decision-making in the pandemic. We call for more proactive methodological innovations that confront the critical limitations of accessible big data especially in times of urgent needs.

Antiviral Efficacy of Molnupiravir for COVID-19 Treatment

The ongoing global pandemic of COVID-19 poses unprecedented public health risks for governments and societies around the world, which have been exacerbated by the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants. Pharmaceutical interventions with high antiviral efficacy are expected to delay and contain the COVID-19 pandemic. Molnupiravir, as an oral antiviral prodrug, is active against SARS-CoV-2 and is now (23 February 2022) one of the seven widely-used coronavirus treatments. To estimate its antiviral efficacy of Molnupiravir, we built a granular mathematical within-host model. We find that the antiviral efficacy of Molnupiravir to stop the growth of the virus is 0.56 (95% CI: 0.49, 0.64), which could inhibit 56% of the replication of infected cells per day. There has been good progress in developing high-efficacy antiviral drugs that rapidly reduce viral load and may also reduce the infectiousness of treated cases if administered as early as possible.