Ocean science. Under-resourced, under threat

Climate change and marine life

A Marine Climate Impacts Workshop was held from 29 April to 3 May 2012 at the US National Center of Ecological Analysis and Synthesis in Santa Barbara. This workshop was the culmination of a series of six meetings over the past three years, which had brought together 25 experts in climate change ecology, analysis of large datasets, palaeontology, marine ecology and physical oceanography. Aims of these workshops were to produce a global synthesis of climate impacts on marine biota, to identify sensitive habitats and taxa, to inform the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) process, and to strengthen research into ecological impacts of climate change.

Growth and demography of the solitary scleractinian coral Leptopsammia pruvoti along a sea surface temperature gradient in the Mediterranean Sea

The demographic traits of the solitary azooxanthellate scleractinian Leptopsammia pruvoti were determined in six populations on a sea surface temperature (SST) gradient along the western Italian coasts. This is the first investigation of the growth and demography characteristics of an azooxanthellate scleractinian along a natural SST gradient. Growth rate was homogeneous across all populations, which spanned 7 degrees of latitude. Population age structures differed between populations, but none of the considered demographic parameters correlated with SST, indicating possible effects of local environmental conditions. Compared to another Mediterranean solitary scleractinian, Balanophyllia europaea, zooxanthellate and whose growth, demography and calcification have been studied in the same sites, L. pruvoti seems more tolerant to temperature increase. The higher tolerance of L. pruvoti, relative to B. europaea, may rely on the absence of symbionts, and thus the lack of an inhibition of host physiological processes by the heat-stressed zooxanthellae. However, the comparison between the two species must be taken cautiously, due to the likely temperature differences between the two sampling depths. Increasing research effort on determining the effects of temperature on the poorly studied azooxanthellate scleractinians may shed light on the possible species assemblage shifts that are likely to occur during the current century as a consequence of global climatic change.

Quantitative approaches in climate change ecology

Contemporary impacts of anthropogenic climate change on ecosystems are increasingly being recognized. Documenting the extent of these impacts requires quantitative tools for analyses of ecological observations to distinguish climate impacts in noisy data and to understand interactions between climate variability and other drivers of change. To assist the development of reliable statistical approaches, we review the marine climate change literature and provide suggestions for quantitative approaches in climate change ecology. We compiled 267 peer-reviewed articles that examined relationships between climate change and marine ecological variables. Of the articles with time series data (n = 186), 75% used statistics to test for a dependency of ecological variables on climate variables. We identified several common weaknesses in statistical approaches, including marginalizing other important non-climate drivers of change, ignoring temporal and spatial autocorrelation, averaging across spatial patterns and not reporting key metrics. We provide a list of issues that need to be addressed to make inferences more defensible, including the consideration of (i) data limitations and the comparability of data sets; (ii) alternative mechanisms for change; (iii) appropriate response variables; (iv) a suitable model for the process under study; (v) temporal autocorrelation; (vi) spatial autocorrelation and patterns; and (vii) the reporting of rates of change. While the focus of our review was marine studies, these suggestions are equally applicable to terrestrial studies. Consideration of these suggestions will help advance global knowledge of climate impacts and understanding of the processes driving ecological change.

Early evaluation of coastal nutrient over-enrichment: new procedures and indicators

Recent studies have provided compelling evidence for an accelerated anthropogenic impact on coastal systems, resulting in intense inputs of materials and nutrients from the continent. This has led scientists and policymakers to encourage the implementation of monitoring programmes, which have resulted in the multiplicity of datasets. However surprisingly, only a few attempts have been made to couple observations with statistical and mathematical tools to detect, as soon as the data become available perturbations in coastal systems. Here, we propose new mathematical procedures to evaluate the state of a system, based on the building of relative reference state and indicators of nutrient over-enrichment. The techniques were tested in some French coastal systems using data from the programme SOMLIT. Applied to this dataset, the multivariate procedures rapidly identified and evaluated anthropogenic nutrient anomalies from the continent on three sites (Wimereux, Roscoff and Villefranche-sur-Mer) from 1997 onwards.

Frontiers of marine science

On 9-13 October 2010 early career scientists from the UK and Australia across marine research fields were given the opportunity to come together in Perth, Australia to discuss the frontiers of marine research and exchange ideas.

Reliability of flipper-banded penguins as indicators of climate change

In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlighted an urgent need to assess the responses of marine ecosystems to climate change. Because they lie in a high-latitude region, the Southern Ocean ecosystems are expected to be strongly affected by global warming. Using top predators of this highly productive ocean (such as penguins) as integrative indicators may help us assess the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems. Yet most available information on penguin population dynamics is based on the controversial use of flipper banding. Although some reports have found the effects of flipper bands to be deleterious, some short-term (one-year) studies have concluded otherwise, resulting in the continuation of extensive banding schemes and the use of data sets thus collected to predict climate impact on natural populations. Here we show that banding of free-ranging king penguins (Aptenodytes patagonicus) impairs both survival and reproduction, ultimately affecting population growth rate. Over the course of a 10-year longitudinal study, banded birds produced 41% [corrected] fewer chicks and had a survival rate 16 percentage points [corrected] lower than non-banded birds, demonstrating a massive long-term impact of banding and thus refuting the assumption that birds will ultimately adapt to being banded. Indeed, banded birds still arrived later for breeding at the study site and had longer foraging trips even after 10 years. One of our major findings is that responses of flipper-banded penguins to climate variability (that is, changes in sea surface temperature and in the Southern Oscillation index) differ from those of non-banded birds. We show that only long-term investigations may allow an evaluation of the impact of flipper bands and that every major life-history trait can be affected, calling into question the banding schemes still going on. In addition, our understanding of the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems based on flipper-band data should be reconsidered.

Turning on the heat: ecological response to simulated warming in the sea

Significant warming has been observed in every ocean, yet our ability to predict the consequences of oceanic warming on marine biodiversity remains poor. Experiments have been severely limited because, until now, it has not been possible to manipulate seawater temperature in a consistent manner across a range of marine habitats. We constructed a "hot-plate" system to directly examine ecological responses to elevated seawater temperature in a subtidal marine system. The substratum available for colonisation and overlying seawater boundary layer were warmed for 36 days, which resulted in greater biomass of marine organisms and a doubling of space coverage by a dominant colonial ascidian. The "hot-plate" system will facilitate complex manipulations of temperature and multiple stressors in the field to provide valuable information on the response of individuals, populations and communities to environmental change in any aquatic habitat.

Regime shifts in the marine environment: the scientific basis and political context

Regime shifts in the marine environment have recently received much attention. To date, however, few large-scale meta-analyses have been carried out due to insufficient data coverage and integration between sustained observational datasets because of diverse methodologies used in data collection, recording and archival. Here we review the available data on regime shifts globally, followed by a review of current and planned policies with relevance to regime shifts. We then focus on the North and Baltic Seas, providing examples of existing efforts for data integration in the MarBEF Network of Excellence. Existing gaps in data coverage are identified, and the added value from meta-analyses of multiple datasets demonstrated using examples from the MarBEF integrated data project LargeNet. We discuss whether these efforts are addressing current policy needs and close with recommendations for future integrated data networks to increase our ability to understand, identify and predict recent and future regime shifts.

Climate, carbon cycling, and deep-ocean ecosystems

Climate variation affects surface ocean processes and the production of organic carbon, which ultimately comprises the primary food supply to the deep-sea ecosystems that occupy approximately 60% of the Earth's surface. Warming trends in atmospheric and upper ocean temperatures, attributed to anthropogenic influence, have occurred over the past four decades. Changes in upper ocean temperature influence stratification and can affect the availability of nutrients for phytoplankton production. Global warming has been predicted to intensify stratification and reduce vertical mixing. Research also suggests that such reduced mixing will enhance variability in primary production and carbon export flux to the deep sea. The dependence of deep-sea communities on surface water production has raised important questions about how climate change will affect carbon cycling and deep-ocean ecosystem function. Recently, unprecedented time-series studies conducted over the past two decades in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic at >4,000-m depth have revealed unexpectedly large changes in deep-ocean ecosystems significantly correlated to climate-driven changes in the surface ocean that can impact the global carbon cycle. Climate-driven variation affects oceanic communities from surface waters to the much-overlooked deep sea and will have impacts on the global carbon cycle. Data from these two widely separated areas of the deep ocean provide compelling evidence that changes in climate can readily influence deep-sea processes. However, the limited geographic coverage of these existing time-series studies stresses the importance of developing a more global effort to monitor deep-sea ecosystems under modern conditions of rapidly changing climate.

Microbial oceanography in a sea of opportunity

Plankton use solar energy to drive the nutrient cycles that make the planet habitable for larger organisms. We can now explore the diversity and functions of plankton using genomics, revealing the gene repertoires associated with survival in the oceans. Such studies will help us to appreciate the sensitivity of ocean systems and of the ocean's response to climate change, improving the predictive power of climate models.

The life of diatoms in the world's oceans

Marine diatoms rose to prominence about 100 million years ago and today generate most of the organic matter that serves as food for life in the sea. They exist in a dilute world where compounds essential for growth are recycled and shared, and they greatly influence global climate, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and marine ecosystem function. How these essential organisms will respond to the rapidly changing conditions in today's oceans is critical for the health of the environment and is being uncovered by studies of their genomes.

From cells to coastlines: how can we use physiology to forecast the impacts of climate change?

The interdisciplinary fields of conservation physiology, macrophysiology, and mechanistic ecological forecasting have recently emerged as means of integrating detailed physiological responses to the broader questions of ecological and evolutionary responses to global climate change. Bridging the gap between large-scale records of weather and climate (as measured by remote sensing platforms, buoys and ground-based weather stations) and the physical world as experienced by organisms (niche-level measurements) requires a mechanistic understanding of how ;environmental signals' (parameters such as air, surface and water temperature, food availability, water flow) are translated into signals at the scale of the organism or cell (e.g. body temperature, food capture, hydrodynamic force, aerobic capacity). Predicting the impacts of how changing environments affect populations and ecosystems further mandates an understanding of how organisms ;filter' these signals via their physiological response (e.g. whether they respond to high or low frequencies, whether there is a time lag in response, etc.) and must be placed within the context of adult movement and the dispersal of larvae and gametes. Recent studies have shown that patterns of physiological stress in nature are far more complex in space and time than previously assumed and challenge the long-held paradigm that patterns of biogeographic distribution can be based on simple environmental gradients. An integrative, systems-based approach can provide an understanding of the roles of environmental and physiological variability in driving ecological responses and can offer considerable insight and predictive capacity to researchers, resource managers and policy makers involved in planning for the current and future effects of climate change.

Biodiversity research sets sail: showcasing the diversity of marine life

The World Congress on Marine Biodiversity was held in the City of Arts and Sciences, Valencia, from 10 to 15 November 2008, showcasing research on all aspects of marine biodiversity from basic taxonomic exploration to innovative conservation strategies and methods to integrate research into environmental policy.

Mining a sea of data: deducing the environmental controls of ocean chlorophyll

Chlorophyll biomass in the surface ocean is regulated by a complex interaction of physiological, oceanographic, and ecological factors and in turn regulates the rates of primary production and export of organic carbon to the deep ocean. Mechanistic models of phytoplankton responses to climate change require the parameterization of many processes of which we have limited knowledge. We develop a statistical approach to estimate the response of remote-sensed ocean chlorophyll to a variety of physical and chemical variables. Irradiance over the mixed layer depth, surface nitrate, sea-surface temperature, and latitude and longitude together can predict 83% of the variation in log chlorophyll in the North Atlantic. Light and nitrate regulate biomass through an empirically determined minimum function explaining nearly 50% of the variation in log chlorophyll by themselves and confirming that either light or macronutrients are often limiting and that much of the variation in chlorophyll concentration is determined by bottom-up mechanisms. Assuming the dynamics of the future ocean are governed by the same processes at work today, we should be able to apply these response functions to future climate change scenarios, with changes in temperature, nutrient distributions, irradiance, and ocean physics.