Multiple chronic conditions and healthcare costs among adults

Cost-related nonadherence to medicines in people with multiple chronic conditions

BACKGROUND

Multimorbidity is common and frequently associated with medicine nonadherence. Although cost is a common reason for nonadherence, very little research has quantified cost-related nonadherence (CRNA) to medicines specifically in people with multimorbidity, the prevalence of CRNA for different conditions nor the impact of cost when prioritising treatment between conditions.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the extent of CRNA in people with multimorbidity and the patient characteristics associated with these behaviours.

DESIGN AND SETTING

People reporting two or more chronic conditions responding to a rapid response module regarding prescription drug affordability fielded between January 1 and June 30 2016 in the Canadian Community Health Survey, a cross-sectional household survey.

METHODS

Ordinal logistic regression, adjusted for key sociodemographic, clinical and treatment related variables, of weighted population estimates of self-reported CRNA within one group of conditions, across multiple groups of conditions, or no CRNA.

RESULTS

10.2% of 8420 Canadians with multimorbidity reported CRNA. The majority (61%) reported CRNA within one group of conditions, especially respiratory (16%) and mental health disorders (17%). CRNA was more common in younger adults, people without employer or association drug insurance plans, poorer health status, more chronic conditions, and increased out-of-pocket prescription costs. Having no prescription insurance was associated with a higher probability of CRNA across multiple groups of conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

People with multimorbidity primarily forego medicines because of cost within one group of conditions. However, those without drug insurance extended these behaviours to multiple condition groups. Further work is needed to determine how people prioritise the conditions and treatments that are foregone because of cost, and how to best incorporate this information into treatment plans.

Systemic clearance of p16INK4a -positive senescent cells mitigates age-associated intervertebral disc degeneration

RATIONALE

Age-related changes in the intervertebral discs are the predominant contributors to back pain, a common physical and functional impairment experienced by older persons. Cellular senescence, a process wherein cells undergo growth arrest and chronically secrete numerous inflammatory molecules and proteases, has been reported to cause decline in the health and function of multiple tissues with age. Although senescent cells have been reported to increase in intervertebral degeneration (IDD), it is not known whether they are causative in age-related IDD.

OBJECTIVE

The study aimed to elucidate whether a causal relationship exists between cellular senescence and age-related IDD.

METHODS AND RESULTS

To examine the impact of senescent cells on age-associated IDD, we used p16-3MR transgenic mice, which enables the selective removal of p16Ink4a -positive senescent cells by the drug ganciclovir. Disc cellularity, aggrecan content and fragmentation alongside expression of inflammatory cytokine (IL-6) and matrix proteases (ADAMTS4 and MMP13) in discs of p16-3MR mice treated with GCV and untreated controls were assessed. In aged mice, reducing the per cent of senescent cells decreased disc aggrecan proteolytic degradation and increased overall proteoglycan matrix content along with improved histological disc features. Additionally, reduction of senescent cells lowered the levels of MMP13, which is purported to promote disc degenerative changes during aging.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of this study suggest that systemic reduction in the number of senescent cells ameliorates multiple age-associated changes within the disc tissue. Cellular senescence could therefore serve as a therapeutic target to restore the health of disc tissue that deteriorates with age.

Anatomical selectivity in overlap of chronic facial and bodily pain

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Background:

Chronic facial pain often overlaps with pain experienced elsewhere in the body, although previous studies have focused on a few, selected pain conditions when assessing the degree of overlap.

Aim:

To quantify the degree of overlap between facial pain and pain reported at multiple locations throughout the body.

Methods:

Data were from a case–control study of US adults participating in the Orofacial Pain: Prospective Evaluation and Risk Assessment (OPPERA) project. They were interviewed to determine the presence of chronic facial pain (n = 424 cases) or its absence (n = 912 controls). A mailed questionnaire with a body drawing asked about pain at other locations. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence limits (95% CLs) quantified the degree of overlap between facial pain and pain at other locations. For replication, cross-sectional data were analyzed from the UK Biobank study (n = 459,604 participants) and the US National Health Interview Survey (n = 27,731 participants).

Results:

In univariate analysis, facial pain had greatest overlap with headache (OR = 14.2, 95% CL = 9.7–20.8) followed by neck pain (OR = 8.5, 95% CL = 6.5–11.0), whereas overlap decreased substantially (ORs of 4.4 or less) for pain at successively remote locations below the neck. The same anatomically based ranking of ORs persisted in multivariable analysis that adjusted for demographics and risk factors for facial pain. Findings were replicated in the UK Biobank study and the US National Health Interview Survey. The observed anatomical selectivity in the degree of overlap could be a consequence of neurosensory and/or affective processes that differentially amplify pain according to its location.

Maintenance and Development of Social Connection by People with Long-term Conditions: A Qualitative Study

Social connection is important for people’s health and well-being. Social isolation arising from a lack of meaningful connection with others can result in deterioration of well-being with negative consequences for health. For people living with multiple long-term conditions, the building and maintaining of social connection may be challenging. The aim of this study was to explore with people with long-term conditions how they perceive they maintain and develop social connections. We undertook semi-structured interviews with seventeen adults, and analyzed the data for themes. Themes were “Meaningful connection”, “Wherewithal for social connection” and “Impact of a major change in life course”. The findings suggest that social connection is valued, and facilitates meaningful ways to reciprocate support with others, thus enabling access to knowledge and resources for better health and well-being. However, people with long-term conditions can experience challenges to developing and maintaining social connectedness after a major change in life course. We suggest that healthcare providers are well placed to facilitate ways for people with long-term conditions to socially connect with others in their neighbourhood and community, and that this in particular be attended to after a major life change.

Evaluation Design of EFFICHRONIC: The Chronic Disease Self-Management Programme (CDSMP) Intervention for Citizens with a Low Socioeconomic Position

Background/rationale: The Chronic Disease Self-Management Programme (CDSMP) intervention is an evidence-based program that aims to encourage citizens with a chronic condition, as well as their caregivers, to better manage and maintain their own health. CDSMP intervention is expected to achieve greater health gains in citizens with a low socioeconomic position (SEP), because citizens with a low SEP have fewer opportunities to adhere to a healthy lifestyle, more adverse chronic conditions and a poorer overall health compared to citizens with a higher SEP. In the EFFICHRONIC project, CDSMP intervention is offered specifically to adults with a chronic condition and a low SEP, as well as to their caregivers (target population). Study objective: The objective of our study is to evaluate the benefits of offering CDSMP intervention to the target population. Methods: A total of 2500 participants (500 in each study site) are recruited to receive the CDSMP intervention. The evaluation study has a pre-post design. Data will be collected from participants before the start of the intervention (baseline) and six months later (follow up). Benefits of the intervention include self-management in healthy lifestyle, depression, sleep and fatigue, medication adherence and health-related quality of life, health literacy, communication with healthcare professionals, prevalence of perceived medical errors and satisfaction with the intervention. The study further includes a preliminary cost-effectiveness analysis with a time horizon of six months. Conclusion: The EFFICHRONIC project will measure the effects of the CDSMP intervention on the target population and the societal cost savings in five European settings.

Prediction of the 1-Year Risk of Incident Lung Cancer: Prospective Study Using Electronic Health Records from the State of Maine

BACKGROUND

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death worldwide. Early detection of individuals at risk of lung cancer is critical to reduce the mortality rate.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to develop and validate a prospective risk prediction model to identify patients at risk of new incident lung cancer within the next 1 year in the general population.

METHODS

Data from individual patient electronic health records (EHRs) were extracted from the Maine Health Information Exchange network. The study population consisted of patients with at least one EHR between April 1, 2016, and March 31, 2018, who had no history of lung cancer. A retrospective cohort (N=873,598) and a prospective cohort (N=836,659) were formed for model construction and validation. An Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm was adopted to build the model. It assigned a score to each individual to quantify the probability of a new incident lung cancer diagnosis from October 1, 2016, to September 31, 2017. The model was trained with the clinical profile in the retrospective cohort from the preceding 6 months and validated with the prospective cohort to predict the risk of incident lung cancer from April 1, 2017, to March 31, 2018.

RESULTS

The model had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.881 (95% CI 0.873-0.889) in the prospective cohort. Two thresholds of 0.0045 and 0.01 were applied to the predictive scores to stratify the population into low-, medium-, and high-risk categories. The incidence of lung cancer in the high-risk category (579/53,922, 1.07%) was 7.7 times higher than that in the overall cohort (1167/836,659, 0.14%). Age, a history of pulmonary diseases and other chronic diseases, medications for mental disorders, and social disparities were found to be associated with new incident lung cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

We retrospectively developed and prospectively validated an accurate risk prediction model of new incident lung cancer occurring in the next 1 year. Through statistical learning from the statewide EHR data in the preceding 6 months, our model was able to identify statewide high-risk patients, which will benefit the population health through establishment of preventive interventions or more intensive surveillance.

Relationship between Perceived Indoor Temperature and Self-Reported Risk for Frailty among Community-Dwelling Older People

This study investigated the relationship between perceived indoor temperature in winter and frailty among community-dwelling older people. This cross-sectional study included 342 people 65 years and older in Japan. Participants answered questions about demographics, frailty, housing, and perceived indoor temperature in winter. Participants were grouped based on perceived indoor temperature (Cold or Warm) and economic satisfaction (Unsatisfied or Satisfied). Differences in the frailty index between perceived indoor temperature groups and economic satisfaction groups were tested by using ANCOVA and MANCOVA. An interaction effect showed that people in the Cold Group and unsatisfied with their economic status had significantly higher frailty index scores (F(1, 336) = 5.95, p = 0.015). Furthermore, the frailty index subscale of fall risk was the specific indicator of frailty that accounted for this significant relationship. While previous research has shown the risks related to cold indoor temperature in homes, interestingly among those who reported cold homes, only those who were not satisfied with their economic situation reported being at increased risk for frailty. This highlights the potential importance of preventing fuel poverty to prevent frailty.

A Telemedicine Service System Exploiting BT/BLE Wireless Sensors for Remote Management of Chronic Patients

The management of the increasing number of patients affected by cardiovascular, pulmonary, and metabolic chronic diseases represents a major challenge for the National Health System (NHS) in any developed country. Chronic diseases are indeed the main cause of hospitalization, especially for elderly people, leading to sustainability problems due to the huge amount of resources required. In the last years, the adoption of the chronic care model (CCM) as assistive model improved the management of these patients and reduced the related healthcare costs. The diffusion of wireless sensors, portable devices and connectivity enables to implement new information and communication technology (ICT)-based innovative applications to further improve the outcomes of the CCM. This paper presents a telemedicine platform for data acquisition, distribution, processing, presentation, and storage, aimed to remotely monitor the clinical status of chronic patients. The proposed solution is based on monitoring kits, with wireless Bluetooth (BT)/ Bluetooth low energy (BLE) sensors and a gateway (i.e., smartphone or tablet) connected to a web-based cloud application that collects and makes available the clinical information to the medical staff. The platform allows clinicians and practitioners to monitor at distance their patients, according to personalized treatment plans, and to act promptly in case of aggravations, reducing hospitalizations and improving patients’ quality of life.

Online Positive Affect Journaling in the Improvement of Mental Distress and Well-Being in General Medical Patients With Elevated Anxiety Symptoms: A Preliminary Randomized Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND

Positive affect journaling (PAJ), an emotion-focused self-regulation intervention, has been associated with positive outcomes among medical populations. It may be adapted for Web-based dissemination to address a need for scalable, evidence-based psychosocial interventions among distressed patients with medical conditions.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to examine the impact of a 12-week Web-based PAJ intervention on psychological distress and quality of life in general medical patients.

METHODS

A total of 70 adults with various medical conditions and elevated anxiety symptoms were recruited from local clinics and randomly assigned to a Web-based PAJ intervention (n=35) or usual care (n=35). The intervention group completed 15-min Web-based PAJ sessions on 3 days each week for 12 weeks. At baseline and the end of months 1 through 3, surveys of psychological, interpersonal, and physical well-being were completed.

RESULTS

Patients evidenced moderate sustained adherence to Web-based intervention. PAJ was associated with decreased mental distress and increased well-being relative to baseline. PAJ was also associated with less depressive symptoms and anxiety after 1 month and greater resilience after the first and second month, relative to usual care.

CONCLUSIONS

Web-based PAJ may serve as an effective intervention for mitigating mental distress, increasing well-being, and enhancing physical functioning among medical populations. PAJ may be integrated into routine medical care to improve quality of life.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01873599; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01873599 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/73ZGFzD2Z).

Cellular senescence in intervertebral disc aging and degeneration

PURPOSE

Age is a major risk factor for multiple disease pathologies, including chronic back pain, which stems from age-related degenerative changes to intervertebral disc tissue. Growing evidence suggest that the change in phenotype of disc cells to a senescent phenotype may be one of the major driving forces of age-associated disc degeneration. This review discusses the known stressors that promote development of senescence in disc tissue and the underlying molecular mechanisms disc cells adopt to enable their transition to a senescent phenotype.

RECENT FINDINGS

Increased number of senescent cells have been observed with advancing age and degeneration in disc tissue. Additionally, in vitro studies have confirmed the catabolic nature of stress-induced senescent disc cells. Several factors have been shown to establish senescence via multiple different underlying mechanisms.

SUMMARY

Cellular senescence can serve as a therapeutic target to combat age-associated disc degeneration. However, whether the different stressors utilizing different signaling networks establish different kinds of senescent types in disc cells is currently unknown and warrants further investigation.

The effectiveness of patient-centred medical home model versus standard primary care in chronic disease management: protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised and non-randomised controlled trials

BACKGROUND

Studies suggest that the Patient-Centred Medical Home (PCMH) model of primary care is more effective than standard care for improving clinical outcomes in patients with chronic diseases (non-communicable diseases), but the strength of the evidence base is unclear. The aim of the proposed systematic review is to generate a current synthesis of relevant studies on the effectiveness of PCMH model of primary care versus standard care in chronic disease management.

METHODS

Electronic databases such as MEDLINE, CINAHL, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Scopus will be searched using predefined search terms for PCMH, primary care, and chronic diseases for articles published up to November 2018. Reference lists of included articles and relevant reviews will also be hand searched. This review will consider eligible randomised controlled trials and controlled trials against predetermined criteria including two or more principles of PCMH model endorsed by Australian Medical Association. Data extraction will be performed independently by two reviewers, and retrieved papers will be assessed for quality using JBI Critical Appraisal Tools. Where possible, quantitative data will be pooled in statistical meta-analysis using the R packages 'Meta' and 'metafor'. Effect sizes will be expressed as odds ratio (for categorical data) and weighted mean differences (for continuous data) and their 95% confidence intervals will be calculated for meta-analysis; robustness will be explored using sensitivity analysis. Heterogeneity will be assessed narratively and statistically using the Q statistics and visualised using Baujat plots including subgroup or sensitivity analyses techniques where possible. Where statistical pooling is not possible, the findings will be presented narratively.

DISCUSSION

The findings of the proposed systematic review will provide the highest level of evidence to date on the effectiveness of the PCMH model versus standard primary care in chronic disease management. We believe that our findings will inform patients, primary care providers, and public health administrators and policy-makers on the benefits and risks of PCMH model of care.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42018085378.

Effect of frailty on resource use and cost for Medicare patients

Aim: The effects of frailty and multiple chronic conditions (MCCs) on cost of care are rarely disentangled in archival data studies. We identify the marginal contribution of frailty to medical care cost estimates using Medicare data. Materials & methods: Use of the Faurot frailty score to identify differences in acute medical events and cost of care for patients, controlling for MCCs and medication use. Results: Estimated marginal cost of frailty was US$10,690 after controlling for demographics, comorbid conditions, polypharmacy and use of potentially inappropriate medications. Conclusion: Frailty contributes greatly to cost of care, but while often correlated, is not synonymous with MCCs. Thus, it is important to control separately for frailty in studies that compare medical care use and cost.

The burden of out of pocket costs and medical debt faced by households with chronic health conditions in the United States

Introduction

To examine the relationship between chronic health conditions and out-of-pocket costs (OOPC) and medical debt.

Methods

Secondary data from the 2013 Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) was used. Households whose head of household and spouse (for married households) were 18 to 64 years old were included.

Results

Households with 1 to 3 chronic conditions had higher odds of having any OOPC compared to households with no chronic conditions (AOR 1.74, 95% CI 1.39, 2.17) (p < .01). Households with 1 to 3 and 4 or more chronic health conditions were associated with higher odds of having any medical debt (AOR 2.24, 95% CI 1.75 to 2.87; AOR 5.04, 95% CI 3.04 to 8.34) compared to those with no chronic conditions (p < 0.01). Similarly, 1 to 3 and 4 or more chronic health conditions was associated with higher amounts of OOPC (Exponentiated Coefficient 1.18, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.36; Exponentiated Coefficient 1.56, 95% CI 1.17 to 2.07) and medical debt (Exponentiated Coefficient 1.69, 95% CI 1.23 to 2.34; Exponentiated Coefficient 2.73, 95% CI 1.19 to 6.25) compared to households with no chronic conditions (p < 0.05).

Conclusions

Findings from this study show that the presence of chronic health conditions impose a large financial burden on some households.

Relevance of a Mobile Internet Platform for Capturing Inter- and Intrasubject Variabilities in Circadian Coordination During Daily Routine: Pilot Study

Background

Experimental and epidemiologic studies have shown that circadian clocks’ disruption can play an important role in the development of cancer and metabolic diseases. The cellular clocks outside the brain are effectively coordinated by the body temperature rhythm. We hypothesized that concurrent measurements of body temperature and rest-activity rhythms would assess circadian clocks coordination in individual patients, thus enabling the integration of biological rhythms into precision medicine.

Objective

The objective was to evaluate the circadian clocks’ coordination in healthy subjects and patients through simultaneous measurements of rest-activity and body temperature rhythms.

Methods

Noninvasive real-time measurements of rest-activity and chest temperature rhythms were recorded during the subject’s daily life, using a dedicated new mobile electronic health platform (PiCADo). It involved a chest sensor that jointly measured accelerations, 3D orientation, and skin surface temperature every 1-5 min and relayed them out to a mobile gateway via Bluetooth Low Energy. The gateway tele-transmitted all stored data to a server via General Packet Radio Service every 24 hours. The technical capabilities of PiCADo were validated in 55 healthy subjects and 12 cancer patients, whose rhythms were e-monitored during their daily routine for 3-30 days. Spectral analyses enabled to compute rhythm parameters values, with their 90% confidence limits, and their dynamics in each subject.

Results

All the individuals displayed a dominant circadian rhythm in activity with maxima occurring from 12:09 to 20:25. This was not the case for the dominant temperature period, which clustered around 24 hours for 51 out of 67 subjects (76%), and around 12 hours for 13 others (19%). Statistically significant sex- and age-related differences in circadian coordination were identified in the noncancerous subjects, based upon the range of variations in temperature rhythm amplitudes, maxima (acrophases), and phase relations with rest-activity. The circadian acrophase of chest temperature was located at night for the majority of people, but it occurred at daytime for 26% (14/55) of the noncancerous people and 33% (4/12) of the cancer patients, thus supporting important intersubject differences in circadian coordination. Sex, age, and cancer significantly impacted the circadian coordination of both rhythms, based on their phase relationships.

Conclusions

Complementing rest-activity with chest temperature circadian e-monitoring revealed striking intersubject differences regarding human circadian clocks’ coordination and timing during daily routine. To further delineate the clinical importance of such finding, the PiCADo platform is currently applied for both the assessment of health effects resulting from atypical work schedules and the identification of the key determinants of circadian disruption in cancer patients.

ProFUSO: Business process and ontology-based framework to develop ubiquitous computing support systems for chronic patients' management

New advances in telemedicine, ubiquitous computing, and artificial intelligence have supported the emergence of more advanced applications and support systems for chronic patients. This trend addresses the important problem of chronic illnesses, highlighted by multiple international organizations as a core issue in future healthcare. Despite the myriad of exciting new developments, each application and system is designed and implemented for specific purposes and lacks the flexibility to support different healthcare concerns. Some of the known problems of such developments are the integration issues between applications and existing healthcare systems, the reusability of technical knowledge in the creation of new and more sophisticated systems and the usage of data gathered from multiple sources in the generation of new knowledge. This paper proposes a framework for the development of chronic disease support systems and applications as an answer to these shortcomings. Through this framework our pursuit is to create a common ground methodology upon which new developments can be created and easily integrated to provide better support to chronic patients, medical staff and other relevant participants. General requirements are inferred for any support system from the primary attention process of chronic patients by the Business Process Management Notation. Numerous technical approaches are proposed to design a general architecture that considers the medical organizational requirements in the treatment of a patient. A framework is presented for any application in support of chronic patients and evaluated by a case study to test the applicability and pertinence of the solution.

Physical therapists familiarity and beliefs about health services utilization and health seeking behaviour

BACKGROUND

Physical therapists' familiarity, perceptions, and beliefs about health services utilization and health seeking behaviour have not been previously assessed.

OBJECTIVES

The purposes of this study were to identify physical therapists' characteristics related to familiarity of health services utilization and health seeking behaviour, and to assess what health seeking behaviour factors providers felt were related to health services utilization.

METHODS

We administered a survey based on the Andersen behavioural model of health services utilization to physical therapists using social media campaigns and email between March and June of 2017. In addition to descriptive statistics, we performed binomial logistic regression analysis. We asked respondents to rate familiarity with health services utilization and health seeking behaviour and collected additional characteristic variables.

RESULTS

Physical therapists are more familiar with health services utilization than health seeking behaviour. Those who are familiar with either construct tend to be those who assess for health services utilization, use health services utilization for a prognosis, and believe that health seeking behaviour is measurable. Physical therapists rated need and enabling factors as having more influence on health services utilization than predisposing and health belief factors.

CONCLUSION

Physical therapists are generally familiar with health services utilization and health seeking behaviour; however, there appears to be a disconnect between what is familiar, what is perceived to be important, and what can be assessed for both health services utilization and health seeking behaviour.

Age trends in 30 day hospital readmissions: US national retrospective analysis

OBJECTIVE

To assess trends in and risk factors for readmission to hospital across the age continuum.

DESIGN

Retrospective analysis.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

31 729 762 index hospital admissions for all conditions in 2013 from the US Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality Nationwide Readmissions Database.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

30 day, all cause, unplanned hospital readmissions. Odds of readmission were compared by patients' age in one year epochs with logistic regression, accounting for sex, payer, length of stay, discharge disposition, number of chronic conditions, reason for and severity of admission, and data clustering by hospital. The middle (45 years) of the age range (0-90+ years) was selected as the age reference group.

RESULTS

The 30 day unplanned readmission rate following all US index admissions was 11.6% (n=3 678 018). Referenced by patients aged 45 years, the adjusted odds ratio for readmission increased between ages 16 and 20 years (from 0.70 (95% confidence interval 0.68 to 0.71) to 1.04 (1.02 to 1.06)), remained elevated between ages 21 and 44 years (range 1.02 (1.00 to 1.03) to 1.12 (1.10 to 1.14)), steadily decreased between ages 46 and 64 years (range 1.02 (1.00 to 1.04) to 0.91 (0.90 to 0.93)), and decreased abruptly at age 65 years (0.78 (0.77 to 0.79)), after which the odds remained relatively constant with advancing age. Across all ages, multiple chronic conditions were associated with the highest adjusted odds of readmission (for example, 3.67 (3.64 to 3.69) for six or more versus no chronic conditions). Among children, young adults, and middle aged adults, mental health was one of the most common reasons for index admissions that had high adjusted readmission rates (≥75th centile).

CONCLUSIONS

The likelihood of readmission was elevated for children transitioning to adulthood, children and younger adults with mental health disorders, and patients of all ages with multiple chronic conditions. Further attention to the measurement and causes of readmission and opportunities for its reduction in these groups is warranted.

A Systematic Review of Cost-of-Illness Studies of Multimorbidity

OBJECTIVES

The economic burden of multimorbidity is considerable. This review analyzed the methods of cost-of-illness (COI) studies and summarized the economic outcomes of multimorbidity.

METHODS

A systematic review (2000-2016) was performed, which was registered with Prospero, reported according to PRISMA, and used a quality checklist adapted for COI studies. The inclusion criteria were peer-reviewed COI studies on multimorbidity, whereas the exclusion criterion was studies focusing on an index disease. Extracted data included the definition, measure, and prevalence of multimorbidity; the number of included health conditions; the age of study population; the variables used in the COI methodology; the percentage of multimorbidity vs. total costs; and the average costs per capita.

RESULTS

Among the 26 included articles, 14 defined multimorbidity as a simple count of 2 or more conditions. Methodologies used to derive the costs were markedly different. Given different healthcare systems, OOP payments of multimorbidity varied across countries. In the 17 and 12 studies with cut-offs of ≥2 and ≥3 conditions, respectively, the ratios of multimorbidity to non-multimorbidity costs ranged from 2-16 to 2-10. Among the ten studies that provided cost breakdowns, studies with and without a societal perspective attributed the largest percentage of multimorbidity costs to social care and inpatient care/medicine, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Multimorbidity was associated with considerable economic burden. Synthesising the cost of multimorbidity was challenging due to multiple definitions of multimorbidity and heterogeneity in COI methods. Count method was most popular to define multimorbidity. There is consistent evidence that multimorbidity was associated with higher costs.

Prediction of Incident Hypertension Within the Next Year: Prospective Study Using Statewide Electronic Health Records and Machine Learning

BACKGROUND

As a high-prevalence health condition, hypertension is clinically costly, difficult to manage, and often leads to severe and life-threatening diseases such as cardiovascular disease (CVD) and stroke.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to develop and validate prospectively a risk prediction model of incident essential hypertension within the following year.

METHODS

Data from individual patient electronic health records (EHRs) were extracted from the Maine Health Information Exchange network. Retrospective (N=823,627, calendar year 2013) and prospective (N=680,810, calendar year 2014) cohorts were formed. A machine learning algorithm, XGBoost, was adopted in the process of feature selection and model building. It generated an ensemble of classification trees and assigned a final predictive risk score to each individual.

RESULTS

The 1-year incident hypertension risk model attained areas under the curve (AUCs) of 0.917 and 0.870 in the retrospective and prospective cohorts, respectively. Risk scores were calculated and stratified into five risk categories, with 4526 out of 381,544 patients (1.19%) in the lowest risk category (score 0-0.05) and 21,050 out of 41,329 patients (50.93%) in the highest risk category (score 0.4-1) receiving a diagnosis of incident hypertension in the following 1 year. Type 2 diabetes, lipid disorders, CVDs, mental illness, clinical utilization indicators, and socioeconomic determinants were recognized as driving or associated features of incident essential hypertension. The very high risk population mainly comprised elderly (age>50 years) individuals with multiple chronic conditions, especially those receiving medications for mental disorders. Disparities were also found in social determinants, including some community-level factors associated with higher risk and others that were protective against hypertension.

CONCLUSIONS

With statewide EHR datasets, our study prospectively validated an accurate 1-year risk prediction model for incident essential hypertension. Our real-time predictive analytic model has been deployed in the state of Maine, providing implications in interventions for hypertension and related diseases and hopefully enhancing hypertension care.

[Assessment of the effectiveness of a proactive and integrated healthcare programme for chronic complex patients]

OBJECTIVE

To assess the effectiveness of a proactive and integrated care programme to adjust the use of health resources by chronic complex patients (CCP) identified as potential high consumers according to a predictive model based on prior use and morbidity.

METHODS

Randomized controlled clinical trial with three parallel groups of CCP: a blinded control group (GC), usual care; a partial intervention group (GIP) reported in the EMR; a total intervention group (GIT), also reported to primary care (PC). Conducted in an integrated health care organization (IHCO), N=128,281 individuals in 2011. Dependent variables: PC visits, emergency attention, hospitalizations, pharmaceutical cost and death.

INDEPENDENT VARIABLES

intervention group, age, sex, area of residence, morbidity (by clinical risk group) and recurrence as CCP.

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

ANOVA, student's t test; logistic and multiple linear regressions at the 95% confidence level.

RESULTS

4,236 CCP included for the first intervention year and 4,223 for the second; recurrence as CCP 72%. Mean age 73.2 years, 54.2% women and over 70% with 2 or more chronic diseases. The number of PC visits was significantly higher for GIT than for GIP and GC. The hospital stays were significantly lower in GIP. This effect was observed in the first year and in the second year only in the new CCP. The general indicators of the IHCO were good, before and during the intervention.

CONCLUSIONS

A high standard of quality, previous and during the study, and the inevitable contamination between groups, hindered the assessment of the marginal effectiveness of the program.

Prevalence and co-prevalence of comorbidities among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

OBJECTIVE

Patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) often have multiple comorbidities which may impact the selection of antihyperglycemic therapies. The purpose of this study was to quantify the prevalence and co-prevalence of common comorbidities.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted using the Quintiles Electronic Medical Record database. Adult patients with T2DM who had ≥1 encounter from July 2014 to June 2015 (index period) with ≥1 year medical history available were included. The index date was defined as the most recent encounter date during the 1 year index period.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Comorbid conditions were assessed using all data available prior to and including the index date. Patient characteristics, laboratory measures, and comorbidities were summarized via descriptive analyses, overall and by subgroups of age (<65, 65-74, 75+ years) and gender.

RESULTS

Of the 1,389,016 eligible patients, 53% were female and the median age was 65 years. 97.5% of patients had at least one comorbid condition in addition to T2DM and 88.5% had at least two. The comorbidity burden tended to increase in older age groups and was higher in men than women. The most common conditions in patients with T2DM included hypertension (HTN) in 82.1%; overweight/obesity in 78.2%; hyperlipidemia in 77.2%; chronic kidney disease (CKD) in 24.1%; and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in 21.6%. The highest co-prevalence was demonstrated for the combination of HTN and hyperlipidemia (67.5%), followed by overweight/obesity and HTN (66.0%), overweight/obesity and hyperlipidemia (62.5%), HTN and CKD (22.4%), hyperlipidemia and CKD (21.1%), HTN and CVD (20.2%), hyperlipidemia and CVD (20.1%), overweight/obesity and CKD (19.1%) and overweight/obesity and CVD (17.0%).

LIMITATIONS

Limitations include the potential for misclassification/underreporting due to the use of diagnostic codes, drug codes, or laboratory measures for identification of medical conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

The vast majority of patients with T2DM have multiple comorbidities. To ensure a comprehensive approach to patient management, the presence of multimorbidity should be considered in the context of clinical decision making.