Epidemiology of human West Nile virus infections in the European Union and European Union enlargement countries, 2010 to 2018

The rise of West Nile Virus in Southern and Southeastern Europe: A spatial-temporal analysis investigating the combined effects of climate, land use and economic changes

West Nile Virus (WNV) has recently emerged as a major public health concern in Europe; its recent expansion also coincided with some remarkable socio-economic and environmental changes, including an economic crisis and some of the warmest temperatures on record. Here we empirically investigate the drivers of this phenomenon at a European wide scale by constructing and analyzing a unique spatial–temporal data-set, that includes data on climate, land-use, the economy, and government spending on environmental related sectors. Drivers and risk factors of WNV were identified by building a conceptual framework, and relationships were tested using a Generalized Additive Model (GAM), which could capture complex non-linear relationships and also account for spatial and temporal auto-correlation. Some of the key risk factors identified in our conceptual framework, such as a higher percentage of wetlands and arable land, climate factors (higher summer rainfall and higher summer temperatures) were positive predictors of WNV infections. Interestingly, winter temperatures of between 2 °C and 6 °C were among some of the strongest predictors of annual WNV infections; one possible explanation for this result is that successful overwintering of infected adult mosquitoes (likely Culex pipiens) is key to the intensity of outbreaks for a given year. Furthermore, lower surface water extent over the summer is also associated with more intense outbreaks, suggesting that drought, which is known to induce positive changes in WNV prevalence in mosquitoes, is also contributing to the upward trend in WNV cases in affected regions. Our indicators representing the economic crisis were also strong predictors of WNV infections, suggesting there is an association between austerity and cuts to key sectors, which could have benefited vector species and the virus during this crucial period. These results, taken in the context of recent winter warming due to climate change, and more frequent droughts, may offer an explanation of why the virus has become so prevalent in Europe.

Emerging Trends in the West Nile Virus Epidemiology in Croatia in the 'One Health' Context, 2011-2020

West Nile virus (WNV) is one of the most widely distributed (re-)emerging arboviruses. In Croatia, acute WNV infections as well as seropositivity were detected in humans, horses, birds and poultry. Although serologic evidence of WNV human infections dates back to the 1970s, no clinical cases were reported until 2012. WNV outbreaks, as well as sporadic infections, were continuously recorded in continental Croatian counties from 2012 to 2018. In addition, acute asymptomatic infections (IgM antibodies) in horses have been regularly notified in continental regions since 2012, while seropositive horses (seroprevalence rates 3.7–21.4%) were detected in both continental and coastal regions. Moreover, WNV seropositivity in poultry (1.8–22.9%) was reported from 2013 to 2020. During the largest WNV outbreak in 2018, WNV RNA was detected for the first time in two dead goshawks (Accipiter gentilis) from the same aviary in North-West Croatia, while WNV antibodies were found in one buzzard (Butteo butteo) from the same region. In addition, WNV RNA was detected in a dead blackbird (Turdus merula) at the Croatian littoral. The phylogenetic analysis of 11 strains detected in urine samples of patients with neuroinvasive disease and 1 strain detected in a goshawk showed circulation of WNV lineage 2. Thus far, WNV has not been detected in mosquitoes in Croatia.