Random Forest Algorithm for the Classification of Neuroimaging Data in Alzheimer's Disease: A Systematic Review

Bioinformatics analysis identifies a key gene HLA_DPA1 in severe influenza-associated immune infiltration

BACKGROUND

Severe influenza is a serious global health issue that leads to prolonged hospitalization and mortality on a significant scale. The pathogenesis of this infectious disease is poorly understood. Therefore, this study aimed to identify the key genes associated with severe influenza patients necessitating invasive mechanical ventilation.

METHODS

The current study utilized two publicly accessible gene expression profiles (GSE111368 and GSE21802) from the Gene Expression Omnibus database. The research focused on identifying the genes exhibiting differential expression between severe and non-severe influenza patients. We employed three machine learning algorithms, namely the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator regression model, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine-Recursive Feature Elimination, to detect potential key genes. The key gene was further selected based on the diagnostic performance of the target genes substantiated in the dataset GSE101702. A single-sample gene set enrichment analysis algorithm was applied to evaluate the participation of immune cell infiltration and their associations with key genes.

RESULTS

A total of 44 differentially expressed genes were recognized; among them, we focused on 10 common genes, namely PCOLCE2, HLA_DPA1, LOC653061, TDRD9, MPO, HLA_DQA1, MAOA, S100P, RAP1GAP, and CA1. To ensure the robustness of our findings, we employed overlapping LASSO regression, Random Forest, and SVM-RFE algorithms. By utilizing these algorithms, we were able to pinpoint the aforementioned 10 genes as potential biomarkers for distinguishing between both cases of influenza (severe and non-severe). However, the gene HLA_DPA1 has been recognized as a crucial factor in the pathological condition of severe influenza. Notably, the validation dataset revealed that this gene exhibited the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, with a value of 0.891. The use of single-sample gene set enrichment analysis has provided valuable insights into the immune responses of patients afflicted with severe influenza that have further revealed a categorical correlation between the expression of HLA_DPA1 and lymphocytes.

CONCLUSION

The findings indicated that the HLA_DPA1 gene may play a crucial role in the immune-pathological condition of severe influenza and could serve as a promising therapeutic target for patients infected with severe influenza.

Predicting disease severity in multiple sclerosis using multimodal data and machine learning

BACKGROUND

Multiple sclerosis patients would benefit from machine learning algorithms that integrates clinical, imaging and multimodal biomarkers to define the risk of disease activity.

METHODS

We have analysed a prospective multi-centric cohort of 322 MS patients and 98 healthy controls from four MS centres, collecting disability scales at baseline and 2 years later. Imaging data included brain MRI and optical coherence tomography, and omics included genotyping, cytomics and phosphoproteomic data from peripheral blood mononuclear cells. Predictors of clinical outcomes were searched using Random Forest algorithms. Assessment of the algorithm performance was conducted in an independent prospective cohort of 271 MS patients from a single centre.

RESULTS

We found algorithms for predicting confirmed disability accumulation for the different scales, no evidence of disease activity (NEDA), onset of immunotherapy and the escalation from low- to high-efficacy therapy with intermediate to high-accuracy. This accuracy was achieved for most of the predictors using clinical data alone or in combination with imaging data. Still, in some cases, the addition of omics data slightly increased algorithm performance. Accuracies were comparable in both cohorts.

CONCLUSION

Combining clinical, imaging and omics data with machine learning helps identify MS patients at risk of disability worsening.

Predicting mild cognitive impairment in older adults: A machine learning analysis of the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative

AIM

Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) in older adults is potentially devastating, but an accurate prediction model is still lacking. We hypothesized that neuropsychological tests and MRI-related markers could predict the onset of MCI early.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 306 older adults who were cognitive normal (CN) attending the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative sequentially (474 pairs of visits) within 3 years. There were 231 pairs of MCI conversion (CN to MCI), and 242 pairs of CN maintenance (CN to CN). Variables on demographic, neuropsychological tests, genetic, and MRI-related markers were collected. Machine learning was used to construct MCI prediction models, comparing the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) as the primary metric of performance. Important predictors were ranked for the optimal model.

RESULTS

The baseline age of the study sample was 74.8 years old. The best-performing model (gradient boosting decision tree) with 13 variables predicted MCI with an AUC of 0.819, and the rank of variable importance showed that intracranial volume, hippocampal volume, and score from task 4 (word recognition) of the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale were important predictors of MCI.

CONCLUSIONS

With the help of machine learning, fewer neuropsychological tests and MRI-related markers are required to accurately predict MCI within 3 years, thereby facilitating targeted intervention. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2024; 24: 96-101.

Simplifying Multimodal Clinical Research Data Management: Introducing an Integrated and User-friendly Database Concept

BACKGROUND

 Clinical research, particularly in scientific data, grapples with the efficient management of multimodal and longitudinal clinical data. Especially in neuroscience, the volume of heterogeneous longitudinal data challenges researchers. While current research data management systems offer rich functionality, they suffer from architectural complexity that makes them difficult to install and maintain and require extensive user training.

OBJECTIVES

 The focus is the development and presentation of a data management approach specifically tailored for clinical researchers involved in active patient care, especially in the neuroscientific environment of German university hospitals. Our design considers the implementation of FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) principles and the secure handling of sensitive data in compliance with the General Data Protection Regulation.

METHODS

 We introduce a streamlined database concept, featuring an intuitive graphical interface built on Hypertext Markup Language revision 5 (HTML5)/Cascading Style Sheets (CSS) technology. The system can be effortlessly deployed within local networks, that is, in Microsoft Windows 10 environments. Our design incorporates FAIR principles for effective data management. Moreover, we have streamlined data interchange through established standards like HL7 Clinical Document Architecture (CDA). To ensure data integrity, we have integrated real-time validation mechanisms that cover data type, plausibility, and Clinical Quality Language logic during data import and entry.

RESULTS

 We have developed and evaluated our concept with clinicians using a sample dataset of subjects who visited our memory clinic over a 3-year period and collected several multimodal clinical parameters. A notable advantage is the unified data matrix, which simplifies data aggregation, anonymization, and export. THIS STREAMLINES DATA EXCHANGE AND ENHANCES DATABASE INTEGRATION WITH PLATFORMS LIKE KONSTANZ INFORMATION MINER (KNIME): .

CONCLUSION

 Our approach offers a significant advancement for capturing and managing clinical research data, specifically tailored for small-scale initiatives operating within limited information technology (IT) infrastructures. It is designed for immediate, hassle-free deployment by clinicians and researchers.The database template and precompiled versions of the user interface are available at: https://github.com/stebro01/research_database_sqlite_i2b2.git.

Explainable machine learning in outcome prediction of high-grade aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage

OBJECTIVE

Accurate prognostic prediction in patients with high-grade aneruysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) is essential for personalized treatment. In this study, we developed an interpretable prognostic machine learning model for high-grade aSAH patients using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP).

METHODS

A prospective registry cohort of high-grade aSAH patients was collected in one single-center hospital. The endpoint in our study is a 12-month follow-up outcome. The dataset was divided into training and validation sets in a 7:3 ratio. Machine learning algorithms, including Logistic regression model (LR), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), were employed to develop a prognostic prediction model for high-grade aSAH. The optimal model was selected for SHAP analysis.

RESULTS

Among the 421 patients, 204 (48.5%) exhibited poor prognosis. The RF model demonstrated superior performance compared to LR (AUC = 0.850, 95% CI: 0.783-0.918), SVM (AUC = 0.862, 95% CI: 0.799-0.926), and XGBoost (AUC = 0.850, 95% CI: 0.783-0.917) with an AUC of 0.867 (95% CI: 0.806-0 .929). Primary prognostic features identified through SHAP analysis included higher World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies (WFNS) grade, higher modified Fisher score (mFS) and advanced age, were found to be associated with 12-month unfavorable outcome, while the treatment of coiling embolization for aSAH drove the prediction towards favorable prognosis. Additionally, the SHAP force plot visualized individual prognosis predictions.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated the potential of machine learning techniques in prognostic prediction for high-grade aSAH patients. The features identified through SHAP analysis enhance model interpretability and provide guidance for clinical decision-making.

Integration of population-level data sources into an individual-level clinical prediction model for dengue virus test positivity

The differentiation of dengue virus (DENV) infection, a major cause of acute febrile illness in tropical regions, from other etiologies, may help prioritize laboratory testing and limit the inappropriate use of antibiotics. While traditional clinical prediction models focus on individual patient-level parameters, we hypothesize that for infectious diseases, population-level data sources may improve predictive ability. To create a clinical prediction model that integrates patient-extrinsic data for identifying DENV among febrile patients presenting to a hospital in Thailand, we fit random forest classifiers combining clinical data with climate and population-level epidemiologic data. In cross-validation, compared to a parsimonious model with the top clinical predictors, a model with the addition of climate data, reconstructed susceptibility estimates, force of infection estimates, and a recent case clustering metric significantly improved model performance.

Proportional impact prediction model of coating material on nitrate leaching of slow-release Urea Super Granules (USG) using machine learning and RSM technique

An accurate assessment of nitrate leaching is important for efficient fertiliser utilisation and groundwater pollution reduction. However, past studies could not efficiently model nitrate leaching due to utilisation of conventional algorithms. To address the issue, the current research employed advanced machine learning algorithms, viz., Support Vector Machine, Artificial Neural Network, Random Forest, M5 Tree (M5P), Reduced Error Pruning Tree (REPTree) and Response Surface Methodology (RSM) to predict and optimize nitrate leaching. In this study, Urea Super Granules (USG) with three different coatings were used for the experiment in the soil columns, containing 1 kg soil with fertiliser placed in between. Statistical parameters, namely correlation coefficient, Mean Absolute Error, Willmott index, Root Mean Square Error and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency were used to evaluate the performance of the ML techniques. In addition, a comparison was made in the test set among the machine learning models in which, RSM outperformed the rest of the models irrespective of coating type. Neem oil/ Acacia oil(ml): clay/sulfer (g): age (days) for minimum nitrate leaching was found to be 2.61: 1.67: 2.4 for coating of USG with bentonite clay and neem oil without heating, 2.18: 2: 1 for bentonite clay and neem oil with heating and 1.69: 1.64: 2.18 for coating USG with sulfer and acacia oil. The research would provide guidelines to researchers and policymakers to select the appropriate tool for precise prediction of nitrate leaching, which would optimise the yield and the benefit-cost ratio.

An explainable machine learning approach for Alzheimer's disease classification

The early diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease (AD) presents a significant challenge due to the subtle biomarker changes often overlooked. Machine learning (ML) models offer a promising tool for identifying individuals at risk of AD. However, current research tends to prioritize ML accuracy while neglecting the crucial aspect of model explainability. The diverse nature of AD data and the limited dataset size introduce additional challenges, primarily related to high dimensionality. In this study, we leveraged a dataset obtained from the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center, comprising 169,408 records and 1024 features. After applying various steps to reduce the feature space. Notably, support vector machine (SVM) models trained on the selected features exhibited high performance when tested on an external dataset. SVM achieved a high F1 score of 98.9% for binary classification (distinguishing between NC and AD) and 90.7% for multiclass classification. Furthermore, SVM was able to predict AD progression over a 4-year period, with F1 scores reached 88% for binary task and 72.8% for multiclass task. To enhance model explainability, we employed two rule-extraction approaches: class rule mining and stable and interpretable rule set for classification model. These approaches generated human-understandable rules to assist domain experts in comprehending the key factors involved in AD development. We further validated these rules using SHAP and LIME models, underscoring the significance of factors such as MEMORY, JUDGMENT, COMMUN, and ORIENT in determining AD risk. Our experimental outcomes also shed light on the crucial role of the Clinical Dementia Rating tool in predicting AD.

Development of a Machine Learning Algorithm to Correlate Lumbar Disc Height on X-rays with Disc Bulging or Herniation

Lumbar disc bulging or herniation (LDBH) is one of the major causes of spinal stenosis and related nerve compression, and its severity is the major determinant for spine surgery. MRI of the spine is the most important diagnostic tool for evaluating the need for surgical intervention in patients with LDBH. However, MRI utilization is limited by its low accessibility. Spinal X-rays can rapidly provide information on the bony structure of the patient. Our study aimed to identify the factors associated with LDBH, including disc height, and establish a clinical diagnostic tool to support its diagnosis based on lumbar X-ray findings. In this study, a total of 458 patients were used for analysis and 13 clinical and imaging variables were collected. Five machine-learning (ML) methods, including LASSO regression, MARS, decision tree, random forest, and extreme gradient boosting, were applied and integrated to identify important variables for predicting LDBH from lumbar spine X-rays. The results showed L4-5 posterior disc height, age, and L1-2 anterior disc height to be the top predictors, and a decision tree algorithm was constructed to support clinical decision-making. Our study highlights the potential of ML-based decision tools for surgeons and emphasizes the importance of L1-2 disc height in relation to LDBH. Future research will expand on these findings to develop a more comprehensive decision-supporting model.

Random forests with parametric entropy-based information gains for classification and regression problems

The random forest algorithm is one of the most popular and commonly used algorithms for classification and regression tasks. It combines the output of multiple decision trees to form a single result. Random forest algorithms demonstrate the highest accuracy on tabular data compared to other algorithms in various applications. However, random forests and, more precisely, decision trees, are usually built with the application of classic Shannon entropy. In this article, we consider the potential of deformed entropies, which are successfully used in the field of complex systems, to increase the prediction accuracy of random forest algorithms. We develop and introduce the information gains based on Renyi, Tsallis, and Sharma-Mittal entropies for classification and regression random forests. We test the proposed algorithm modifications on six benchmark datasets: three for classification and three for regression problems. For classification problems, the application of Renyi entropy allows us to improve the random forest prediction accuracy by 19-96% in dependence on the dataset, Tsallis entropy improves the accuracy by 20-98%, and Sharma-Mittal entropy improves accuracy by 22-111% compared to the classical algorithm. For regression problems, the application of deformed entropies improves the prediction by 2-23% in terms of R2 in dependence on the dataset.

Equilibrium of Dietary Patterns Between Alzheimer's Disease Patients and Healthy People: A Comprehensive Analysis Using Multiple Factor Analysis and Classification Modeling

BACKGROUND

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a particular type of dementia that currently lacks a definitive treatment and cure. It is possible to reduce the risk of developing AD and mitigate its severity through modifications to one's lifestyle, regular diet, and alcohol-drinking habits.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study is to examine the daily dietary patterns of individuals with AD compared to healthy controls, with a focus on nutritional balance and its impact on AD.

METHODS

This study incorporated multiple-factor analysis (MFA) to evaluate dietary patterns and employed Random Forest (RF) classifier and Sparse Logistic Regression (SLR) for Variable Importance analysis to identify food items significantly associated with AD.

RESULTS

MFA revealed trends in the data and a strong correlation (Lg = 0.92, RV = 0.65) between the daily consumption of processed food and meat items in AD patients. In contrast, no significant relationship was found for any daily consumed food categories within the healthy control (HC) group. Food items such as meat pie, hamburger, ham, sausages, beef, capsicum, and cabbage were identified as important variables associated with AD in RF and SLR analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings from MFA indicated that the diversity or equilibrium of daily diet might play a potential role in AD development. RF and SLR classifications exhibit among the processed foods, especially deli meats and food made with meat items, are associated with AD.

Intrusive Traumatic Re-Experiencing Domain: Functional Connectivity Feature Classification by the ENIGMA PTSD Consortium

Background

Intrusive traumatic re-experiencing domain (ITRED) was recently introduced as a novel perspective on posttraumatic psychopathology, proposing to focus research of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) on the unique symptoms of intrusive and involuntary re-experiencing of the trauma, namely, intrusive memories, nightmares, and flashbacks. The aim of the present study was to explore ITRED from a neural network connectivity perspective.

Methods

Data were collected from 9 sites taking part in the ENIGMA (Enhancing Neuro Imaging Genetics through Meta Analysis) PTSD Consortium (n= 584) and included itemized PTSD symptom scores and resting-state functional connectivity (rsFC) data. We assessed the utility of rsFC in classifying PTSD, ITRED-only (no PTSD diagnosis), and trauma-exposed (TE)-only (no PTSD or ITRED) groups using a machine learning approach, examining well-known networks implicated in PTSD. A random forest classification model was built on a training set using cross-validation, and the averaged cross-validation model performance for classification was evaluated using the area under the curve. The model was tested using a fully independent portion of the data (test dataset), and the test area under the curve was evaluated.

Results

rsFC signatures differentiated TE-only participants from PTSD and ITRED-only participants at about 60% accuracy. Conversely, rsFC signatures did not differentiate PTSD from ITRED-only individuals (45% accuracy). Common features differentiating TE-only participants from PTSD and ITRED-only participants mainly involved default mode network-related pathways. Some unique features, such as connectivity within the frontoparietal network, differentiated TE-only participants from one group (PTSD or ITRED-only) but to a lesser extent from the other group.

Conclusions

Neural network connectivity supports ITRED as a novel neurobiologically based approach to classifying posttrauma psychopathology.

Prediction of antidepressant responses to non-invasive brain stimulation using frontal electroencephalogram signals: Cross-dataset comparisons and validation

BACKGROUND

10-Hz repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation(rTMS) and intermittent theta-burst stimulation(iTBS) over left prefrontal cortex are FDA-approved, effective options for treatment-resistant depression (TRD). Optimal prediction models for iTBS and rTMS remain elusive. Therefore, our primary objective was to compare prediction accuracy between classification by frontal theta activity alone and machine learning(ML) models by linear and non-linear frontal signals. The second objective was to study an optimal ML model for predicting responses to rTMS and iTBS.

METHODS

Two rTMS and iTBS datasets (n = 163) were used: one randomized controlled trial dataset (RCTD; n = 96) and one outpatient dataset (OPD; n = 67). Frontal theta and non-linear EEG features that reflect trend, stability, and complexity were extracted. Pretreatment frontal EEG and ML algorithms, including classical support vector machine(SVM), random forest(RF), XGBoost, and CatBoost, were analyzed. Responses were defined as ≥50 % depression improvement after treatment. Response rates between those with and without pretreatment prediction in another independent outpatient cohort (n = 208) were compared.

RESULTS

Prediction accuracy using combined EEG features by SVM was better than frontal theta by logistic regression. The accuracy for OPD patients significantly dropped using the RCTD-trained SVM model. Modern ML models, especially RF (rTMS = 83.3 %, iTBS = 88.9 %, p-value(ACC > NIR) < 0.05 for iTBS), performed significantly above chance and had higher accuracy than SVM using both selected features (p < 0.05, FDR corrected for multiple comparisons) or all EEG features. Response rates among those receiving prediction before treatment were significantly higher than those without prediction (p = 0.035).

CONCLUSION

The first study combining linear and non-linear EEG features could accurately predict responses to left PFC iTBS. The bootstraps-based ML model (i.e., RF) had the best predictive accuracy for rTMS and iTBS.

Examining the diagnostic value of the mnemonic discrimination task for classification of cognitive status and amyloid-beta burden

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the most common type of dementia, characterized by early memory impairments and gradual worsening of daily functions. AD-related pathology, such as amyloid-beta (Aβ) plaques, begins to accumulate many years before the onset of clinical symptoms. Predicting risk for AD via related pathology is critical as the preclinical stage could serve as a therapeutic time window, allowing for early management of the disease and reducing health and economic costs. Current methods for detecting AD pathology, however, are often expensive and invasive, limiting wide and easy access to a clinical setting. A non-invasive, cost-efficient platform, such as computerized cognitive tests, could be potentially useful to identify at-risk individuals as early as possible. In this study, we examined the diagnostic value of an episodic memory task, the mnemonic discrimination task (MDT), for predicting risk of cognitive impairment or Aβ burden. We constructed a random forest classification algorithm, utilizing MDT performance metrics and various neuropsychological test scores as input features, and assessed model performance using area under the curve (AUC). Models based on MDT performance metrics achieved classification results with an AUC of 0.83 for cognitive status and an AUC of 0.64 for Aβ status. Our findings suggest that mnemonic discrimination function may be a useful predictor of progression to prodromal AD or increased risk of Aβ load, which could be a cost-efficient, noninvasive cognitive testing solution for potentially wide-scale assessment of AD pathological and cognitive risk.

Comparison of the diagnostic accuracy of resting-state fMRI driven machine learning algorithms in the detection of mild cognitive impairment

Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is a potential therapeutic window in the prevention of dementia; however, automated detection of early cognitive deterioration is an unresolved issue. The aim of our study was to compare various classification approaches to differentiate MCI patients from healthy controls, based on rs-fMRI data, using machine learning (ML) algorithms. Own dataset (from two centers) and ADNI database were used during the analysis. Three fMRI parameters were applied in five feature selection algorithms: local correlation, intrinsic connectivity, and fractional amplitude of low frequency fluctuations. Support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF) methods were applied for classification. We achieved a relatively wide range of 78-87% accuracy for the various feature selection methods with SVM combining the three rs-fMRI parameters. In the ADNI datasets case we can also see even 90% accuracy scores. RF provided a more harmonized result among the feature selection algorithms in both datasets with 80-84% accuracy for our local and 74-82% for the ADNI database. Despite some lower performance metrics of some algorithms, most of the results were positive and could be seen in two unrelated datasets which increase the validity of our methods. Our results highlight the potential of ML-based fMRI applications for automated diagnostic techniques to recognize MCI patients.

Breast cancer prediction using different machine learning methods applying multi factors

OBJECTIVE

Breast cancer (BC) is a multifactorial disease and is one of the most common cancers globally. This study aimed to compare different machine learning (ML) techniques to develop a comprehensive breast cancer risk prediction model based on features of various factors.

METHODS

The population sample contained 810 records (115 cancer patients and 695 healthy individuals). 45 attributes out of 85 were selected based on the opinion of experts. These selected attributes are in genetic, biochemical, biomarker, gender, demographic and pathological factors. 13 Machine learning models were trained with proposed attributes and coefficient of attributes and internal relationships were calculated.

RESULT

Compared to other methods random forest (RF) has higher performance (accuracy 99.26%, precision 99%, and area under the curve (AUC) 99%). The results of assessing the impact and correlation of variables using the RF method based on PCA indicated that pathology, biomarker, biochemistry, gene, and demographic factors with a coefficient of 0.35, 0.23, 0.15, 0.14, and 0.13 respectively, affected the risk of BC (r2 = 0.54).

CONCLUSION

Breast cancer has several risk factors. Medical experts use these risk factors for early diagnosis. Therefore, identifying related risk factors and their effect can increase the accuracy of diagnosis. Considering the broad features for predicting breast cancer leads to the development of a comprehensive prediction model. In this study, using RF technique a breast cancer prediction model with 99.3% accuracy was developed based on multifactorial features.

Performance of an AI algorithm during the different phases of the COVID pandemics: what can we learn from the AI and vice versa

Background

Artificial intelligence (AI) has proved to be of great value in diagnosing and managing Sars-Cov-2 infection. ALFABETO (ALL-FAster-BEtter-TOgether) is a tool created to support healthcare professionals in the triage, mainly in optimizing hospital admissions.

Methods

The AI was trained during the pandemic's "first wave" (February-April 2020). Our aim was to assess the performance during the "third wave" of the pandemics (February-April 2021) and evaluate its evolution. The neural network proposed behavior (hospitalization vs home care) was compared with what was actually done. If there were discrepancies between ALFABETO's predictions and clinicians' decisions, the disease's progression was monitored. Clinical course was defined as "favorable/mild" if patients could be managed at home or in spoke centers and "unfavorable/severe" if patients need to be managed in a hub center.

Results

ALFABETO showed accuracy of 76%, AUROC of 83%; specificity was 78% and recall 74%. ALFABETO also showed high precision (88%). 81 hospitalized patients were incorrectly predicted to be in "home care" class. Among those "home-cared" by the AI and "hospitalized" by the clinicians, 3 out of 4 misclassified patients (76.5%) showed a favorable/mild clinical course. ALFABETO's performance matched the reports in literature.

Conclusions

The discrepancies mostly occurred when the AI predicted patients could stay at home but clinicians hospitalized them; these cases could be handled in spoke centers rather than hubs, and the discrepancies may aid clinicians in patient selection. The interaction between AI and human experience has the potential to improve both AI performance and our comprehension of pandemic management.

Increasing Nonfossil Fuel Contributions to Atmospheric Nitrate in Urban China from Observation to Prediction

China's nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions have undergone significant changes over the past few decades. However, nonfossil fuel NOx emissions are not yet well constrained in urban environments, resulting in a substantial underestimation of their importance relative to the known fossil fuel NOx emissions. We developed an approach using machine learning that is accurate enough to generate a long time series of the nitrogen isotopic composition (δ15N) of atmospheric nitrate using high-level accuracies of air pollutants and meteorology data. Air temperature was found to be the critical driver of the variation of nitrate δ15N at daily resolution based on this approach, while significant reductions of aerosol and its precursor emissions played a key role in the change of nitrate δ15N on the yearly scale. Predictions from this model found a significant decrease in nitrate δ15N in Chinese megacities (Beijing and Guangzhou as representative cities in the north and south, respectively) since 2013, implying an enhanced contribution of nonfossil fuel NOx emissions to nitrate aerosols (up to 22%-26% in 2021 from 18%-22% in 2013 quantified by an isotope mixing model), as confirmed by the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with online chemistry (WRF-Chem) simulation. Meanwhile, the declining contribution in coal combustion (34%-39% in 2013 to 31%-34% in 2021) and increasing contribution of natural gas combustion (11%-14% in 2013 to 14%-17% in 2021) demonstrated the transformation of China's energy structure from coal to natural gas. This approach provides missing records for exploring long-term variability in the nitrogen isotope system and may contribute to the study of the global reactive nitrogen biogeochemical cycle.

Explainability of random survival forests in predicting conversion risk from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease

Random Survival Forests (RSF) has recently showed better performance than statistical survival methods as Cox proportional hazard (CPH) in predicting conversion risk from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, RSF application in real-world clinical setting is still limited due to its black-box nature.For this reason, we aimed at providing a comprehensive study of RSF explainability with SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) on biomarkers of stable and progressive patients (sMCI and pMCI) from Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. We evaluated three global explanations-RSF feature importance, permutation importance and SHAP importance-and we quantitatively compared them with Rank-Biased Overlap (RBO). Moreover, we assessed whether multicollinearity among variables may perturb SHAP outcome. Lastly, we stratified pMCI test patients in high, medium and low risk grade, to investigate individual SHAP explanation of one pMCI patient per risk group.We confirmed that RSF had higher accuracy (0.890) than CPH (0.819), and its stability and robustness was demonstrated by high overlap (RBO > 90%) between feature rankings within first eight features. SHAP local explanations with and without correlated variables had no substantial difference, showing that multicollinearity did not alter the model. FDG, ABETA42 and HCI were the first important features in global explanations, with the highest contribution also in local explanation. FAQ, mPACCdigit, mPACCtrailsB and RAVLT immediate had the highest influence among all clinical and neuropsychological assessments in increasing progression risk, as particularly evident in pMCI patients' individual explanation. In conclusion, our findings suggest that RSF represents a useful tool to support clinicians in estimating conversion-to-AD risk and that SHAP explainer boosts its clinical utility with intelligible and interpretable individual outcomes that highlights key features associated with AD prognosis.

oFVSD: a Python package of optimized forward variable selection decoder for high-dimensional neuroimaging data

The complexity and high dimensionality of neuroimaging data pose problems for decoding information with machine learning (ML) models because the number of features is often much larger than the number of observations. Feature selection is one of the crucial steps for determining meaningful target features in decoding; however, optimizing the feature selection from such high-dimensional neuroimaging data has been challenging using conventional ML models. Here, we introduce an efficient and high-performance decoding package incorporating a forward variable selection (FVS) algorithm and hyper-parameter optimization that automatically identifies the best feature pairs for both classification and regression models, where a total of 18 ML models are implemented by default. First, the FVS algorithm evaluates the goodness-of-fit across different models using the k-fold cross-validation step that identifies the best subset of features based on a predefined criterion for each model. Next, the hyperparameters of each ML model are optimized at each forward iteration. Final outputs highlight an optimized number of selected features (brain regions of interest) for each model with its accuracy. Furthermore, the toolbox can be executed in a parallel environment for efficient computation on a typical personal computer. With the optimized forward variable selection decoder (oFVSD) pipeline, we verified the effectiveness of decoding sex classification and age range regression on 1,113 structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) datasets. Compared to ML models without the FVS algorithm and with the Boruta algorithm as a variable selection counterpart, we demonstrate that the oFVSD significantly outperformed across all of the ML models over the counterpart models without FVS (approximately 0.20 increase in correlation coefficient, r, with regression models and 8% increase in classification models on average) and with Boruta variable selection algorithm (approximately 0.07 improvement in regression and 4% in classification models). Furthermore, we confirmed the use of parallel computation considerably reduced the computational burden for the high-dimensional MRI data. Altogether, the oFVSD toolbox efficiently and effectively improves the performance of both classification and regression ML models, providing a use case example on MRI datasets. With its flexibility, oFVSD has the potential for many other modalities in neuroimaging. This open-source and freely available Python package makes it a valuable toolbox for research communities seeking improved decoding accuracy.

Predicting ovarian responses to the controlled ovarian hyperstimulation in elderly infertile women using clinical measurements and random forest regression

During the past decades, the number of elderly infertile women is obviously increasing in China, and more and more of them are likely to seek medical assisted reproductive technologies. As the in vitro fertilization/embryo transfer (IVF/ET) treatment presents special medical and psychological challenges to elderly infertile women, it is extremely helpful to perform the clinical evaluation and outcome prediction regarding IVF/ET outcomes. In this study, we retrospectively collected 12 clinical measurements in prior to the oocyte recovery for 689 elderly infertile patients (≥35 years of old), and used for predicting ovarian responses to the controlled ovarian hyperstimulation based on random forest regression models. Using different predictor sets and 10-fold cross validation approach, the Mean Square Error (±standard deviation) of prediction models varied from 7.56 ± 0.31 to 13.90 ± 0.37 in the training datasets, and the correlation coefficients between observed and predicted values ranged from 0.86 ± 0.02 to 0.72 ± 0.05 in the testing datasets. Among all clinical measurements involved in this study, the preovulatory follicle count (PFC), antral follicle count (AFC), and anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) were revealed to be the most important features in prediction models. In conclusion, we successfully established the machine learning approach that could help the elderly infertile patients to better understand the most possible outcomes in subjecting to the controlled ovarian hyperstimulation.

Navigating Early Alzheimer's Diagnosis: A Comprehensive Review of Diagnostic Innovations

The hunt for early Alzheimer's disease detection has created cutting-edge diagnostic instruments with enormous promise. This article examines the many facets of these developments, focusing on how they have revolutionised diagnosis and patient outcomes. These tools make it possible to detect tiny brain changes even before they give birth to clinical symptoms by combining cutting-edge biomarkers, neuroimaging methods, and machine-learning algorithms. A significant opportunity for therapies that can slow the course of the disease exists during this early detection stage. Additionally, these cutting-edge techniques improve diagnostic precision, objectivity, and accessibility. Liquid biopsies and blood-based biomarkers provide non-invasive alternatives, filling accessibility gaps in diagnosis. While issues with standardisation, ethics, and data integration continue, collaboration within research, clinical practice, and policy realms fuels positive developments. As technology advances, the way towards better Alzheimer's diagnosis becomes more evident, giving patients and families dealing with this difficult illness fresh hope. The synergy between scientific advancement and compassionate treatment is crucial for improving Alzheimer's disease diagnosis, as this paper emphasises.

Predicting stroke and mortality in mitral stenosis with atrial flutter: A machine learning approach

BACKGROUND

Our study hypothesized that an intelligent gradient boosting machine (GBM) model can predict cerebrovascular events and all-cause mortality in mitral stenosis (MS) with atrial flutter (AFL) by recognizing comorbidities, electrocardiographic and echocardiographic parameters.

METHODS

The machine learning model was used as a statistical analyzer in recognizing the key risk factors and high-risk features with either outcome of cerebrovascular events or mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 2184 patients with their chart data and imaging studies were included and the GBM analysis demonstrated mitral valve area (MVA), right ventricular systolic pressure, pulmonary artery pressure (PAP), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), New York Heart Association (NYHA) class, and surgery as the most significant predictors of transient ischemic attack (TIA/stroke). MVA, PAP, LVEF, creatinine, hemoglobin, and diastolic blood pressure were predictors for all-cause mortality.

CONCLUSION

The GBM model assimilates clinical data from all diagnostic modalities and significantly improves risk prediction performance and identification of key variables for the outcome of MS with AFL.

Predictive modeling of antibiotic eradication therapy success for new-onset Pseudomonas aeruginosa pulmonary infections in children with cystic fibrosis

Chronic Pseudomonas aeruginosa (Pa) lung infections are the leading cause of mortality among cystic fibrosis (CF) patients; therefore, the eradication of new-onset Pa lung infections is an important therapeutic goal that can have long-term health benefits. The use of early antibiotic eradication therapy (AET) has been shown to clear the majority of new-onset Pa infections, and it is hoped that identifying the underlying basis for AET failure will further improve treatment outcomes. Here we generated machine learning models to predict AET outcomes based on pathogen genomic data. We used a nested cross validation design, population structure control, and recursive feature selection to improve model performance and showed that incorporating population structure control was crucial for improving model interpretation and generalizability. Our best model, controlling for population structure and using only 30 recursively selected features, had an area under the curve of 0.87 for a holdout test dataset. The top-ranked features were generally associated with motility, adhesion, and biofilm formation.

Machine Learning Based Linking of Patient Reported Outcome Measures to WHO International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health Activity/Participation Categories

BACKGROUND

In the primary and secondary medical health sector, patient reported outcome measures (PROMs) are widely used to assess a patient's disease-related functional health state. However, the World Health Organization (WHO), in its recently adopted resolution on "strengthening rehabilitation in all health systems", encourages that all health sectors, not only the rehabilitation sector, classify a patient's functioning and health state according to the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF).

AIM

This research sought to optimize machine learning (ML) methods that fully and automatically link information collected from PROMs in persons with unspecific chronic low back pain (cLBP) to limitations in activities and restrictions in participation that are listed in the WHO core set categories for LBP. The study also aimed to identify the minimal set of PROMs necessary for linking without compromising performance.

METHODS

A total of 806 patients with cLBP completed a comprehensive set of validated PROMs and were interviewed by clinical psychologists who assessed patients' performance in activity limitations and restrictions in participation according to the ICF brief core set for low back pain (LBP). The information collected was then utilized to further develop random forest (RF) methods that classified the presence or absence of a problem within each of the activity participation ICF categories of the ICF core set for LBP. Further analyses identified those PROM items relevant to the linking process and validated the respective linking performance that utilized a minimal subset of items.

RESULTS

Compared to a recently developed ML linking method, receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) values for the novel RF methods showed overall improved performance, with AUC values ranging from 0.73 for the ICF category d850 to 0.81 for the ICF category d540. Variable importance measurements revealed that minimal subsets of either 24 or 15 important PROM variables (out of 80 items included in full set of PROMs) would show similar linking performance.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings suggest that our optimized ML based methods more accurately predict the presence or absence of limitations and restrictions listed in ICF core categories for cLBP. In addition, this accurate performance would not suffer if the list of PROM items was reduced to a minimum of 15 out of 80 items assessed.

Assessing the transportability of clinical prediction models for cognitive impairment using causal models

BACKGROUND

Machine learning models promise to support diagnostic predictions, but may not perform well in new settings. Selecting the best model for a new setting without available data is challenging. We aimed to investigate the transportability by calibration and discrimination of prediction models for cognitive impairment in simulated external settings with different distributions of demographic and clinical characteristics.

METHODS

We mapped and quantified relationships between variables associated with cognitive impairment using causal graphs, structural equation models, and data from the ADNI study. These estimates were then used to generate datasets and evaluate prediction models with different sets of predictors. We measured transportability to external settings under guided interventions on age, APOE ε4, and tau-protein, using performance differences between internal and external settings measured by calibration metrics and area under the receiver operating curve (AUC).

RESULTS

Calibration differences indicated that models predicting with causes of the outcome were more transportable than those predicting with consequences. AUC differences indicated inconsistent trends of transportability between the different external settings. Models predicting with consequences tended to show higher AUC in the external settings compared to internal settings, while models predicting with parents or all variables showed similar AUC.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrated with a practical prediction task example that predicting with causes of the outcome results in better transportability compared to anti-causal predictions when considering calibration differences. We conclude that calibration performance is crucial when assessing model transportability to external settings.

Prediction of Feed Efficiency and Performance-Based Traits in Fish via Integration of Multiple Omics and Clinical Covariates

Fish aquaculture is a rapidly expanding global industry, set to support growing demands for sources of marine protein. Enhancing feed efficiency (FE) in farmed fish is required to reduce production costs and improve sector sustainability. Recognising that organisms are complex systems whose emerging phenotypes are the product of multiple interacting molecular processes, systems-based approaches are expected to deliver new biological insights into FE and growth performance. Here, we establish 14 diverse layers of multi-omics and clinical covariates to assess their capacities to predict FE and associated performance traits in a fish model (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and uncover the influential variables. Inter-omic relatedness between the different layers revealed several significant concordances, particularly between datasets originating from similar material/tissue and between blood indicators and some of the proteomic (liver), metabolomic (liver), and microbiomic layers. Single- and multi-layer random forest (RF) regression models showed that integration of all data layers provide greater FE prediction power than any single-layer model alone. Although FE was among the most challenging of the traits we attempted to predict, the mean accuracy of 40 different FE models in terms of root-mean square errors normalized to percentage was 30.4%, supporting RF as a feature selection tool and approach for complex trait prediction. Major contributions to the integrated FE models were derived from layers of proteomic and metabolomic data, with substantial influence also provided by the lipid composition layer. A correlation matrix of the top 27 variables in the models highlighted FE trait-associations with faecal bacteria (Serratia spp.), palmitic and nervonic acid moieties in whole body lipids, levels of free glycerol in muscle, and N-acetylglutamic acid content in liver. In summary, we identified subsets of molecular characteristics for the assessment of commercially relevant performance-based metrics in farmed Chinook salmon.

ABVS-Based Radiomics for Early Predicting the Efficacy of Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in Patients with Breast Cancers

Background

Neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) plays a significant role in breast cancer (BC) management; however, its efficacy varies among patients. Current evaluation methods may lead to delayed treatment alterations, and traditional imaging modalities often yield inaccurate results. Radiomics, an emerging field in medical imaging, offers potential for improved tumor characterization and personalized medicine. Nevertheless, its application in early and accurately predicting NAC response remains underinvestigated.

Objective

This study aims to develop an automated breast volume scanner (ABVS)-based radiomics model to facilitate early detection of suboptimal NAC response, ultimately promoting personalized therapeutic approaches for BC patients.

Methods

This retrospective study involved 248 BC patients receiving NAC. Standard guidelines were followed, and patients were classified as responders or non-responders based on treatment outcomes. ABVS images were obtained before and during NAC, and radiomics features were extracted using the PyRadiomics toolkit. Inter-observer consistency and hierarchical feature selection were assessed. Three machine learning classifiers, logistic regression, support vector machine, and random forest, were trained and validated using a five-fold cross-validation with three repetitions. Model performance was comprehensively evaluated based on discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility.

Results

Of the 248 BC patients, 157 (63.3%) were responders, and 91 (36.7%) were non-responders. Radiomics feature selection revealed 7 pre-NAC and 6 post-NAC ABVS features, with higher weights for post-NAC features (min >0.05) than pre-NAC (max <0.03). The three post-NAC classifiers demonstrated AUCs of approximately 0.9, indicating excellent discrimination. DCA curves revealed a substantial net benefit when the threshold probability exceeded 40%. Conversely, the three pre-NAC classifiers had AUCs between 0.7 and 0.8, suggesting moderate discrimination and limited clinical utility based on their DCA curves.

Conclusion

The ABVS-based radiomics model effectively predicted suboptimal NAC responses in BC patients, with early post-NAC classifiers outperforming pre-NAC classifiers in discrimination and clinical utility. It could enhance personalized treatment and improve patient outcomes in BC management.

Integration of population-level data sources into an individual-level clinical prediction model for dengue virus test positivity

The differentiation of dengue virus (DENV) infection, a major cause of acute febrile illness in tropical regions, from other etiologies, may help prioritize laboratory testing and limit the inappropriate use of antibiotics. While traditional clinical prediction models focus on individual patient-level parameters, we hypothesize that for infectious diseases, population-level data sources may improve predictive ability. To create a clinical prediction model that integrates patient-extrinsic data for identifying DENV among febrile patients presenting to a hospital in Thailand, we fit random forest classifiers combining clinical data with climate and population-level epidemiologic data. In cross validation, compared to a parsimonious model with the top clinical predictors, a model with the addition of climate data, reconstructed susceptibility estimates, force of infection estimates, and a recent case clustering metric, significantly improved model performance.

Machine learning-driven exploration of drug therapies for triple-negative breast cancer treatment

Breast cancer is the second leading cause of cancer death in women among all cancer types. It is highly heterogeneous in nature, which means that the tumors have different morphologies and there is heterogeneity even among people who have the same type of tumor. Several staging and classifying systems have been developed due to the variability of different types of breast cancer. Due to high heterogeneity, personalized treatment has become a new strategy. Out of all breast cancer subtypes, triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) comprises ∼10%-15%. TNBC refers to the subtype of breast cancer where cells do not express estrogen receptors, progesterone receptors, or human epidermal growth factor receptors (ERs, PRs, and HERs). Tumors in TNBC have a diverse set of genetic markers and prognostic indicators. We scanned the Cancer Cell Line Encyclopedia (CCLE) and Genomics of Drug Sensitivity in Cancer (GDSC) databases for potential drugs using human breast cancer cell lines and drug sensitivity data. Three different machine-learning approaches were used to evaluate the prediction of six effective drugs against the TNBC cell lines. The top biomarkers were then shortlisted on the basis of their involvement in breast cancer and further subjected to testing for radion resistance using data from the Cleveland database. It was observed that Panobinostat, PLX4720, Lapatinib, Nilotinib, Selumetinib, and Tanespimycin were six effective drugs against the TNBC cell lines. We could identify potential derivates that may be used against approved drugs. Only one biomarker (SETD7) was sensitive to all six drugs on the shortlist, while two others (SRARP and YIPF5) were sensitive to both radiation and drugs. Furthermore, we did not find any radioresistance markers for the TNBC. The proposed biomarkers and drug sensitivity analysis will provide potential candidates for future clinical investigation.

Improving Mortality Risk Prediction with Routine Clinical Data: A Practical Machine Learning Model Based on eICU Patients

Purpose

Mortality risk prediction helps clinicians make better decisions in patient healthcare. However, existing severity scoring systems or algorithms used in intensive care units (ICUs) often rely on laborious manual collection of complex variables and lack sufficient validation in diverse clinical environments, thus limiting their practical applicability. This study aims to evaluate the performance of machine learning models that utilize routinely collected clinical data for short-term mortality risk prediction.

Patients and Methods

Using the eICU Collaborative Research Database, we identified a cohort of 12,393 ICU patients, who were randomly divided into a training group and a validation group at a ratio of 9:1. The models utilized routine variables obtained from regular medical workflows, including age, gender, physiological measurements, and usage of vasoactive medications within a 24-hour period prior to patient discharge. Four different machine learning algorithms, namely logistic regression, random forest, extreme gradient boosting (XGboost), and artificial neural network were employed to develop the mortality risk prediction model. We compared the discrimination and calibration performance of these models in assessing mortality risk within 1-week time window.

Results

Among the tested models, the XGBoost algorithm demonstrated the highest performance, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.9702, an area under precision and recall curves (AUPRC) of 0.8517, and a favorable Brier score of 0.0259 for 24-hour mortality risk prediction. Although the model's performance decreased when considering larger time windows, it still achieved a comparable AUROC of 0.9184 and AUPRC of 0.5519 for 3-day mortality risk prediction.

Conclusion

The findings demonstrate the feasibility of developing a highly accurate and well-calibrated model based on the XGBoost algorithm for short-term mortality risk prediction with easily accessible and interpretative data. These results enhance confidence in the application of the machine learning model to clinical practice.

Predicting Alzheimer's Disease with Interpretable Machine Learning

INTRODUCTION

This study aimed to develop novel machine learning models for predicting Alzheimer's disease (AD) and identify key factors for targeted prevention.

METHODS

We included 1,219, 863, and 482 participants aged 60+ years with only sociodemographic, both sociodemographic and self-reported health, both the former two and blood biomarkers information from Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database. Machine learning models were constructed for predicting the risk of AD for the above three populations. Model performance was evaluated by discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness. SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) was applied to identify key predictors of optimal models.

RESULTS

The mean age was 73.49, 74.52, and 74.29 years for the three populations, respectively. Models with sociodemographic information and models with both sociodemographic and self-reported health information showed modest performance. For models with sociodemographic, self-reported health, and blood biomarker information, their overall performance improved substantially, specifically, logistic regression performed best, with an AUC value of 0.818. Blood biomarkers of ptau protein and plasma neurofilament light, age, blood tau protein, and education level were top five significant predictors. In addition, taurine, inosine, xanthine, marital status, and L.Glutamine also showed importance to AD prediction.

CONCLUSION

Interpretable machine learning showed promise in screening high-risk AD individual and could further identify key predictors for targeted prevention.

Identification and validation of immune-associated NETosis subtypes and biomarkers in anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody associated glomerulonephritis

Background

NETosis is a new form of cell death, marked by DNA chromatin release from dead neutrophils. While it aids in microbe defense, it may worsen inflammation in autoimmune diseases, causing tissue harm. The impact of NETosis on Anti-neutrophil Cytoplasmic Antibody-associated Glomerulonephritis (ANCA-GN) remains unexplored and requires investigation.

Methods

First, a weighted gene co-expression network analysis (WGCNA) was conducted to uncover differential expression of neutrophil extranuclear trap-associated genes (DE-NETs) in ANCA-GN. The NETosisScore model was established through the single sample gene set enrichment analysis (ssGSEA), which categorized all patients into high-risk and low-risk groups. The accuracy of model was assessed by ROC curve. The biological function of various subgroups was explored through Gene Set Variation Analysis (GSVA), while the abundance of immune cell infiltration was measured with CIBERSORT. Furthermore, the key NETosis-related genes (NRGs) were identified using three machine learning algorithms, and their relationship with renal function was analyzed through the NephroseqV5 database. Through the application of qPCR and immunohistochemical staining techniques, the mRNA and protein expression levels of NRGs were determined in patients with ANCA-GN and control.

Results

A NETosisScore model was developed from 18 DE-NETs using the ssGSEA algorithm. The model's ability to predict ANCA-GN patients with a ROC AUC of 0.921. The high-risk group in ANCA-GN showed enrichment of immune-related pathways and greater infiltration of immune cells, as revealed by KEGG enrichment analysis and CIBERSORT. Using three machine learning algorithms, we identified six NRGs. Significant positive correlations were found between NRGs and CCR, macrophages, T-cell co-inhibition, and TIL. Further KEGG analysis revealed that the functions of NRGs may be closely related to the toll-like receptor signaling pathway. The levels of NRGs increased as kidney function declined and were positively correlated with Scr (serum creatinine) and negatively correlated with GFR (glomerular filtration rate), qPCR analysis showed increased expression of most NRGs in ANCA-GN patients. Furthermore, immunohistochemical staining confirmed higher expression of all NRGs in ANCA-GN patients.

Conclusion

NETosisScore model accurately predicts high-risk patients in ANCA-GN with enriched immune pathways, 6 NRGs identified as potential biomarkers.

Identification of cuproptosis-related molecular subtypes as a biomarker for differentiating active from latent tuberculosis in children

BACKGROUND

Cell death plays a crucial role in the progression of active tuberculosis (ATB) from latent infection (LTBI). Cuproptosis, a novel programmed cell death, has been reported to be associated with the pathology of various diseases. We aimed to identify cuproptosis-related molecular subtypes as biomarkers for distinguishing ATB from LTBI in pediatric patients.

METHOD

The expression profiles of cuproptosis regulators and immune characteristics in pediatric patients with ATB and LTBI were analyzed based on GSE39939 downloaded from the Gene Expression Omnibus. From the 52 ATB samples, we investigated the molecular subtypes based on differentially expressed cuproptosis-related genes (DE-CRGs) via consensus clustering and related immune cell infiltration. Subtype-specific differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were found using the weighted gene co-expression network analysis. The optimum machine model was then determined by comparing the performance of the eXtreme Gradient Boost (XGB), the random forest model (RF), the general linear model (GLM), and the support vector machine model (SVM). Nomogram and test datasets (GSE39940) were used to verify the prediction accuracy.

RESULTS

Nine DE-CRGs (NFE2L2, NLRP3, FDX1, LIPT1, PDHB, MTF1, GLS, DBT, and DLST) associated with active immune responses were ascertained between ATB and LTBI patients. Two cuproptosis-related molecular subtypes were defined in ATB pediatrics. Single sample gene set enrichment analysis suggested that compared with Subtype 2, Subtype 1 was characterized by decreased lymphocytes and increased inflammatory activation. Gene set variation analysis showed that cluster-specific DEGs in Subtype 1 were closely associated with immune and inflammation responses and energy and amino acids metabolism. The SVM model exhibited the best discriminative performance with a higher area under the curve (AUC = 0.983) and relatively lower root mean square and residual error. A final 5-gene-based (MAN1C1, DKFZP434N035, SIRT4, BPGM, and APBA2) SVM model was created, demonstrating satisfactory performance in the test datasets (AUC = 0.905). The decision curve analysis and nomogram calibration curve also revealed the accuracy of differentiating ATB from LTBI in children.

CONCLUSION

Our study suggested that cuproptosis might be associated with the immunopathology of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection in children. Additionally, we built a satisfactory prediction model to assess the cuproptosis subtype risk in ATB, which can be used as a reliable biomarker for the distinguishment between pediatric ATB and LTBI.

Predicting the retention time of Synthetic Cannabinoids using a combinatorial QSAR approach

Background

Abuse of Synthetic Cannabinoids (SCs) has become a serious threat to public health. Due to the various structural and chemical group modified by criminals, their detection is a major challenge in forensic toxicological identification. Therefore, rapid and efficient identification of SCs is important for forensic toxicology and drug bans. The prediction of an analyte's retention time in liquid chromatography is an important index for the qualitative analysis of compounds and can provide informatics solutions for the interpretation of chromatographic data.

Methods

In this study, experimental data from high-resolution mass spectrometry (HRMS) are used to construct a regression model for predicting the retention time of SCs using machine learning methods. The prediction ability of the model is improved by adopting a strategy that combines different descriptors in different independent machine-learning methods.

Results

The best model was obtained with a method that combined Substructure Fingerprint Count and Finger printer features and the support vector regression (SVR) method, as it exhibited an R² value of 0.81 for the validation set and 0.83 for the test set. In addition, 4 new SCs were predicted by the optimized model, with a prediction error within 3%.

Conclusions

Our study provides a model that can predict the retention time of compounds and it can be used as a filter to reduce false-positive candidates when used in combination with LC-HRMS, especially in the absence of reference standards. This can improve the confidence of identification in non-targeted analysis and the reliability of identifying unknown substances.

Applying machine learning techniques to predict the risk of lung metastases from rectal cancer: a real-world retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Metastasis in the lungs is common in patients with rectal cancer, and it can have severe consequences on their survival and quality of life. Therefore, it is essential to identify patients who may be at risk of developing lung metastasis from rectal cancer.

METHODS

In this study, we utilized eight machine-learning methods to create a model for predicting the risk of lung metastasis in patients with rectal cancer. Our cohort consisted of 27,180 rectal cancer patients selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database between 2010 and 2017 for model development. Additionally, we validated our models using 1118 rectal cancer patients from a Chinese hospital to evaluate model performance and generalizability. We assessed our models' performance using various metrics, including the area under the curve (AUC), the area under the precision-recall curve (AUPR), the Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC), decision curve analysis (DCA), and calibration curves. Finally, we applied the best model to develop a web-based calculator for predicting the risk of lung metastasis in patients with rectal cancer.

RESULT

Our study employed tenfold cross-validation to assess the performance of eight machine-learning models for predicting the risk of lung metastasis in patients with rectal cancer. The AUC values ranged from 0.73 to 0.96 in the training set, with the extreme gradient boosting (XGB) model achieving the highest AUC value of 0.96. Moreover, the XGB model obtained the best AUPR and MCC in the training set, reaching 0.98 and 0.88, respectively. We found that the XGB model demonstrated the best predictive power, achieving an AUC of 0.87, an AUPR of 0.60, an accuracy of 0.92, and a sensitivity of 0.93 in the internal test set. Furthermore, the XGB model was evaluated in the external test set and achieved an AUC of 0.91, an AUPR of 0.63, an accuracy of 0.93, a sensitivity of 0.92, and a specificity of 0.93. The XGB model obtained the highest MCC in the internal test set and external validation set, with 0.61 and 0.68, respectively. Based on the DCA and calibration curve analysis, the XGB model had better clinical decision-making ability and predictive power than the other seven models. Lastly, we developed an online web calculator using the XGB model to assist doctors in making informed decisions and to facilitate the model's wider adoption (https://share.streamlit.io/woshiwz/rectal_cancer/main/lung.py).

CONCLUSION

In this study, we developed an XGB model based on clinicopathological information to predict the risk of lung metastasis in patients with rectal cancer, which may help physicians make clinical decisions.

Discordant and Converting Receptor Expressions in Brain Metastases from Breast Cancer: MRI-Based Non-Invasive Receptor Status Tracking

Discordance and conversion of receptor expressions in metastatic lesions and primary tumors is often observed in patients with brain metastases from breast cancer. Therefore, personalized therapy requires continuous monitoring of receptor expressions and dynamic adaptation of applied targeted treatment options. Radiological in vivo techniques may allow receptor status tracking at high frequencies at low risk and cost. The present study aims to investigate the potential of receptor status prediction through machine-learning-based analysis of radiomic MR image features. The analysis is based on 412 brain metastases samples from 106 patients acquired between 09/2007 and 09/2021. Inclusion criteria were as follows: diagnosed cerebral metastases from breast cancer; histopathology reports on progesterone (PR), estrogen (ER), and human epidermal growth factor 2 (HER2) receptor status; and availability of MR imaging data. In total, 3367 quantitative features of T1 contrast-enhanced, T1 non-enhanced, and FLAIR images and corresponding patient age were evaluated utilizing random forest algorithms. Feature importance was assessed using Gini impurity measures. Predictive performance was tested using 10 permuted 5-fold cross-validation sets employing the 30 most important features of each training set. Receiver operating characteristic areas under the curves of the validation sets were 0.82 (95% confidence interval [0.78; 0.85]) for ER+, 0.73 [0.69; 0.77] for PR+, and 0.74 [0.70; 0.78] for HER2+. Observations indicate that MR image features employed in a machine learning classifier could provide high discriminatory accuracy in predicting the receptor status of brain metastases from breast cancer.

A novel approach to topological network analysis for the identification of metrics and signatures in non-small cell lung cancer

Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), the primary histological form of lung cancer, accounts for about 25%-the highest-of all cancer deaths. As NSCLC is often undetected until symptoms appear in the late stages, it is imperative to discover more effective tumor-associated biomarkers for early diagnosis. Topological data analysis is one of the most powerful methodologies applicable to biological networks. However, current studies fail to consider the biological significance of their quantitative methods and utilize popular scoring metrics without verification, leading to low performance. To extract meaningful insights from genomic data, it is essential to understand the relationship between geometric correlations and biological function mechanisms. Through bioinformatics and network analyses, we propose a novel composite selection index, the C-Index, that best captures significant pathways and interactions in gene networks to identify biomarkers with the highest efficiency and accuracy. Furthermore, we establish a 4-gene biomarker signature that serves as a promising therapeutic target for NSCLC and personalized medicine. The C-Index and biomarkers discovered were validated with robust machine learning models. The methodology proposed for finding top metrics can be applied to effectively select biomarkers and early diagnose many diseases, revolutionizing the approach to topological network research for all cancers.

Genetic analysis of cuproptosis subtypes and immunological features in severe influenza

The mechanisms regulating cuproptosis in severe influenza are still unknown. We aimed to identify the molecular subtypes of cuproptosis and immunological characteristics associated with severe influenza in patients requiring invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). The expression of cuproptosis modulatory factors and immunological characteristics of these patients were analyzed using the public datasets (GSE101702, GSE21802, and GSE111368) from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO). Seven cuproptotic-associated genes (ATP7B, ATP7A, FDX1, LIAS, DLD, MTF1, DBT) related to active immune responses were identified in patients suffering from severe and non-severe influenza and two cuproptosis-associated molecular subtypes were discovered in severe influenza patients. Singe-set gene set expression analysis (SsGSEA) indicated that compared with subtype 2, subtype 1 was characterized by reduced adaptive cellular immune responses and increased neutrophil activation. Gene set variation assessment revealed that cluster-specific differentially expressed genes (DEGs) in subtype 1 were involved in autophagy, apoptosis, oxidative phosphorylation, and T cell, immune, and inflammatory responses, amongst others. The random forest (RF) model revealed the most differentiating efficiency with relatively small residual and root mean square error and an increased area under the curve value (AUC = 0.857). Lastly, a five-gene-based RF model (CD247, GADD45A, KIF1B, LIN7A, HLA_DPA1) was established, which showed satisfactory efficiency in the test datasets GSE111368 (AUC = 0.819). Nomogram calibration and decision curve analysis demonstrated its accuracy for the prediction of severe influenza. This study suggests that cuproptosis might be associated with the immunopathology of severe influenza. Additionally, an efficient model for the prediction of cuproptosis subtypes was developed which will contribute to the prevention and treatment of severe influenza patients needing IMV.

TMS-EEG perturbation biomarkers for Alzheimer's disease patients classification

The combination of TMS and EEG has the potential to capture relevant features of Alzheimer's disease (AD) pathophysiology. We used a machine learning framework to explore time-domain features characterizing AD patients compared to age-matched healthy controls (HC). More than 150 time-domain features including some related to local and distributed evoked activity were extracted from TMS-EEG data and fed into a Random Forest (RF) classifier using a leave-one-subject out validation approach. The best classification accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and F1 score were of 92.95%, 96.15%, 87.94% and 92.03% respectively when using a balanced dataset of features computed globally across the brain. The feature importance and statistical analysis revealed that the maximum amplitude of the post-TMS signal, its Hjorth complexity and the amplitude of the TEP calculated in the window 45-80 ms after the TMS-pulse were the most relevant features differentiating AD patients from HC. TMS-EEG metrics can be used as a non-invasive tool to further understand the AD pathophysiology and possibly contribute to patients' classification as well as longitudinal disease tracking.

Machine learning predicts histologic type and grade of canine gliomas based on MRI texture analysis

Conventional MRI features of canine gliomas subtypes and grades significantly overlap. Texture analysis (TA) quantifies image texture based on spatial arrangement of pixel intensities. Machine learning (ML) models based on MRI-TA demonstrate high accuracy in predicting brain tumor types and grades in human medicine. The aim of this retrospective, diagnostic accuracy study was to investigate the accuracy of ML-based MRI-TA in predicting canine gliomas histologic types and grades. Dogs with histopathological diagnosis of intracranial glioma and available brain MRI were included. Tumors were manually segmented across their entire volume in enhancing part, non-enhancing part, and peri-tumoral vasogenic edema in T2-weighted (T2w), T1-weighted (T1w), FLAIR, and T1w postcontrast sequences. Texture features were extracted and fed into three ML classifiers. Classifiers' performance was assessed using a leave-one-out cross-validation approach. Multiclass and binary models were built to predict histologic types (oligodendroglioma vs. astrocytoma vs. oligoastrocytoma) and grades (high vs. low), respectively. Thirty-eight dogs with a total of 40 masses were included. Machine learning classifiers had an average accuracy of 77% for discriminating tumor types and of 75.6% for predicting high-grade gliomas. The support vector machine classifier had an accuracy of up to 94% for predicting tumor types and up to 87% for predicting high-grade gliomas. The most discriminative texture features of tumor types and grades appeared related to the peri-tumoral edema in T1w images and to the non-enhancing part of the tumor in T2w images, respectively. In conclusion, ML-based MRI-TA has the potential to discriminate intracranial canine gliomas types and grades.

Liquid Biopsy-Based Volatile Organic Compounds from Blood and Urine and Their Combined Data Sets for Highly Accurate Detection of Cancer

Liquid biopsy is seen as a prospective tool for cancer screening and tracking. However, the difficulty lies in effectively sieving, isolating, and overseeing cancer biomarkers from the backdrop of multiple disrupting cells and substances. The current study reports on the ability to perform liquid biopsy without the need to physically filter and/or isolate the cancer cells per se. This has been achieved through the detection and classification of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emitted from the cancer cells found in the headspace of blood or urine samples or a combined data set of both. Spectrometric analysis shows that blood and urine contain complementary or overlapping VOC information on kidney cancer, gastric cancer, lung cancer, and fibrogastroscopy subjects. Based on this information, a nanomaterial-based chemical sensor array in conjugation with machine learning as well as data fusion of the signals achieved was carried out on various body fluids to assess the VOC profiles of cancer. The detection of VOC patterns by either Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry (GC-MS) analysis or our sensor array achieved >90% accuracy, >80% sensitivity, and >80% specificity in different binary classification tasks. The hybrid approach, namely, analyzing the VOC datasets of blood and urine together, contributes an additional discrimination ability to the improvement (>3%) of the model's accuracy. The contribution of the hybrid approach for an additional discrimination ability to the improvement of the model's accuracy is examined and reported.

Logistic random forest boosting technique for Alzheimer’s diagnosis

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a common and well-known neurodegenerative condition that causes cognitive impairment. In the field of medicine, it is the "nervous system" disorder that has received the most attention. Despite this extensive research, there is no treatment or strategy to slow or stop its spread. Nevertheless, there are a variety of options (medication and non-medication alternatives) that may aid in the treatment of AD symptoms at their various phases, thereby enhancing the patient's quality of life. As AD advances over time, it is necessary to treat patients at their various stages appropriately. As a result, detecting and classifying AD phases prior to symptom treatment can be beneficial. Approximately twenty years ago, the rate of progress in the field of machine learning (ML) accelerated dramatically. Using ML methods, this study focuses on early AD identification. The "Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative" (ADNI) dataset was subjected to exhaustive testing for AD identification. The purpose was to classify the dataset into three groups: AD, "Cognitive Normal" (CN), and "Late Mild Cognitive Impairment" (LMCI). In this paper, we present the ensemble model Logistic Random Forest Boosting (LRFB), representing the ensemble of “Logistic Regression” (LR), “Random Forest” (RF), and “Gradient Boost” (GB). The proposed LRFB outperformed LR, RF, GB, “k-Nearest Neighbour” (k-NN), “Multi-Layer Perceptron” (MLP), “Support Vector Machine” (SVM), “AdaBoost” (AB), “Naïve Bayes” (NB), “XGBoost” (XGB), “Decision Tree” (DT), and other ensemble ML models with respect to the performance metrics “Accuracy” (Acc), “Recall” (Rec), “Precision” (Prec), and “F1-Score” (FS).

Neural functions in cancer: Data analyses and database construction

Recent studies have revealed that neural functions are involved in possibly every aspect of a cancer development, serving as bridges connecting microenvironmental stressors, activities of intracellular subsystems, and cell survival. Elucidation of the functional roles played by the neural system could provide the missing links in developing a systems-level understanding of cancer biology. However, the existing information is highly fragmented and scattered across the literature and internet databases, making it difficult for cancer researchers to use. We have conducted computational analyses of transcriptomic data of cancer tissues in TCGA and tissues of healthy organs in GTEx, aiming to demonstrate how the functional roles by the neural genes could be derived and what non-neural functions they are associated with, across different stages of 26 cancer types. Several novel discoveries are made, including i) the expressions of certain neural genes can predict the prognosis of a cancer patient; ii) cancer metastasis tends to involve specific neural functions; iii) cancers of low survival rates involve more neural interactions than those with high survival rates; iv) more malignant cancers involve more complex neural functions; and v) neural functions are probably induced to alleviate stresses and help the associated cancer cells to survive. A database, called NGC, is developed for organizing such derived neural functions and associations, along with gene expressions and functional annotations collected from public databases, aiming to provide an integrated and publicly available information resource to enable cancer researchers to take full advantage of the relevant information in their research, facilitated by tools provided by NGC.

A smart secured framework for detecting and averting online recruitment fraud using ensemble machine learning techniques

With the rise of the Internet and social media, information has become available at our fingertips. However, on the dark side, these advancements have opened doors for fraudsters. Online recruitment fraud (ORF) is one of the problems created by these modern technologies, as hundreds of thousands of applicants are victimized every year globally. Fraudsters advertise bogus jobs on online platforms and target job hunters with fake offerings such as huge salaries and desirable geographical locations. The objective of these fraudsters is to collect personal information to be misused in the future, leading to the loss of applicants' privacy. To prevent such situations, there is a need for an automatic detecting system that can distinguish between real and fake job advertisements and preserve the applicants' privacy. This study attempts to build a smart secured framework for detecting and preventing ORF using ensemble machine learning (ML) techniques. In this regard, four ensemble methods-AdaBoost (AB), Xtreme Gradient Boost (XGB), Voting, and Random Forest (RF)-are used to build a detection framework. The dataset used was pre-processed using several methods for cleaning and denoising in order to achieve better outcomes. The performance evaluation measures of the applied methods were accuracy, precision, sensitivity, F-measure, and ROC curves. According to these measures, AB performed best, followed by XGB, voting, and RF. In the proposed framework, AB achieved a high accuracy of 98.374%, showing its reliability for detecting and preventing ORF. The results of AB were compared to existing methods in the literature validating the reliability of the model to be significantly used for detecting ORF.

Hippocampus-centred grey matter covariance networks predict the development and reversion of mild cognitive impairment

BACKGROUND

Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) has been thought of as the transitional stage between normal ageing and Alzheimer's disease, involving substantial changes in brain grey matter structures. As most previous studies have focused on single regions (e.g. the hippocampus) and their changes during MCI development and reversion, the relationship between grey matter covariance among distributed brain regions and clinical development and reversion of MCI remains unclear.

METHODS

With samples from two independent studies (155 from the Beijing Aging Brain Rejuvenation Initiative and 286 from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative), grey matter covariance of default, frontoparietal, and hippocampal networks were identified by seed-based partial least square analyses, and random forest models were applied to predict the progression from normal cognition to MCI (N-t-M) and the reversion from MCI to normal cognition (M-t-N).

RESULTS

With varying degrees, the grey matter covariance in the three networks could predict N-t-M progression (AUC = 0.692-0.792) and M-t-N reversion (AUC = 0.701-0.809). Further analyses indicated that the hippocampus has emerged as an important region in reversion prediction within all three brain networks, and even though the hippocampus itself could predict the clinical reversion of M-t-N, the grey matter covariance showed higher prediction accuracy for early progression of N-t-M.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings are the first to report grey matter covariance changes in MCI development and reversion and highlight the necessity of including grey matter covariance changes along with hippocampal degeneration in the early detection of MCI and Alzheimer's disease.

Insight into potent TLR2 inhibitors for the treatment of disease caused by Mycoplasma pneumoniae based on machine learning approaches

Mycoplasma pneumoniae (MP) is one of the most common pathogens that causes acute respiratory tract infections. Children experiencing MP infection often suffer severe complications, lung injury, and even death. Previous studies have demonstrated that Toll-like receptor 2 (TLR2) is a potential therapeutic target for treating the MP-induced inflammatory response. However, the screening of natural compounds has received more attention for the treatment of bacterial infections to reduce the likelihood of bacterial resistance. Herein, we screened compounds by combining molecular docking and machine learning approaches to find potential lead compounds for treating MP infection. First, all compounds were docked with the TLR2 receptor protein to screen for potential candidates. To predict drug bioactivity, a machine learning model (random forest) was trained for TLR2 inhibitors to obtain the predictive model. The model achieved significant squared correlation coefficient (R²) values for the training set (0.85) and validation set (0.84) of compounds. The developed machine learning model was then used to predict the pIC50 values of the top 50 candidates from the Traditional Chinese compounds and Discovery Diversity sets of compounds. As a result, these compounds are capable of inhibiting the inflammatory response induced by MP. However, prior to bringing these compounds to market, it is necessary to verify these results with additional biological testing, including preclinical and clinical studies. Moreover, the present study provides a theoretical basis for the use of natural compounds as potential candidates to treat pneumonia caused by MP.