Trends of measured climate forcing agents

The growth rate of climate forcing by measured greenhouse gases peaked near 1980 at almost 5 W/m(2) per century. This growth rate has since declined to approximately 3 W/m(2) per century, largely because of cooperative international actions. We argue that trends can be reduced to the level needed for the moderate "alternative" climate scenario ( approximately 2 W/m(2) per century for the next 50 years) by means of concerted actions that have other benefits, but the forcing reductions are not automatic "co-benefits" of actions that slow CO(2) emissions. Current trends of climate forcings by aerosols remain very uncertain. Nevertheless, practical constraints on changes in emission levels suggest that global warming at a rate +0.15 +/- 0.05 degrees C per decade will occur over the next several decades.

The effects of changing weather on public health

Many diseases are influenced by weather conditions or display strong seasonality, suggestive of a possible climatic contribution. Projections of future climate change have, therefore, compelled health scientists to re-examine weather/disease relationships. There are three projected physical consequences of climate change: temperature rise, sea level rise, and extremes in the hydrologic cycle. This century, the Earth has warmed by about 0.5 degrees centigrade, and the mid-range estimates of future temperature change and sea level rise are 2.0 degrees centigrade and 49 centimeters, respectively, by the year 2100. Extreme weather variability associated with climate change may especially add an important new stress to developing nations that are already vulnerable as a result of environmental degradation, resource depletion, overpopulation, or location (e.g. low-lying coastal deltas). The regional impacts of climate change will vary widely depending on existing population vulnerability. Health outcomes of climate change can be grouped into those of: (a) direct physical consequences, e.g. heat mortality or drowning; (b) physical/chemical sequelae, e.g. atmospheric transport and formation of air pollutants; (c) physical/biological consequences, e.g. response of vector- and waterborne diseases, and food production; and (d) sociodemographic impacts, e.g. climate or environmentally induced migration or population dislocation. Better understanding of the linkages between climate variability as a determinant of disease will be important, among other key factors, in constructing predictive models to guide public health prevention.

The global methane cycle: isotopes and mixing ratios, sources and sinks

A review of the global cycle of methane is presented with emphasis on its isotopic composition. The history of methane mixing ratios, reconstructed from measurements of air trapped in ice-cores is described. The methane record now extends back to 420 kyr ago in the case of the Vostok ice cores from Antarctica. The trends in mixing ratios and in delta13C values are reported for the two Hemispheres. The increase of the atmospheric methane concentration over the past 200 years, and by 1% per year since 1978, reaching 1.7 ppmv in 1990 is underlined. The various methane sources are presented. Indeed the authors describe the methane emissions by bacterial activity under anaerobic conditions in wet environments (wetlands, bogs, tundra, rice paddies), in ruminant stomachs and termite guts, and that originating from fossil carbon sources, such as biomass burning, coal mining, industrial losses, automobile exhaust, sea floor vent, and volcanic emissions. Furthermore, the main sinks of methane in the troposphere, soils or waters via oxidation are also reported, and the corresponding kinetic isotope effects.

The long-term evolutions and the regional characteristics of atmospheric methane concentrations in Nagoya, 1983-1997

This study provides information on the long-term evolutions of the atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations in Nagoya City, Japan, which were analyzed by using the continuous monitoring data observed at the eight observatory stations for 1983-1997. The 15-year records of the atmospheric CH4 concentrations were examined by means of a time-series analysis using a fast Fourier transform with a low-pass filter to elucidate the seasonal cycles and the long-term trends. The annual averages of the CH4 concentrations in Nagoya were 1.85 ppmv (parts per million by volume), 1.91 ppmv, and 1.90 ppmv in 1988, 1995 and 1997, respectively. Moreover, the annual average growth rate showed a drastic decrease from 17 ppbv (parts per billion by volume) year(-1) in 1992 to 2 ppbv year(-1) in 1993, and further down to 7 ppbv year(-1) in 1997. Comparison of the atmospheric CH4 records in Nagoya with those in global air of the northern hemisphere observed at Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii, USA, allows us to estimate the excess concentration of CH4 in the urban atmosphere of Nagoya, which was 0.17 ppmv in 1988 and 0.15 ppmv in 1997. On a local scale, the atmospheric CH4 concentrations in the northern part of Nagoya City increased until 1992 and then gradually decreased from 1993 to 1997, although those in the south-western urban areas constantly increased at the averaged growth rate of 13 ppbv year(-1) for 1988-1997. The variation of the long-term trends of the CH4 concentrations in Nagoya may be ascribed to the emission changes from the CH4 sources due to the human activities such as waste dumping and landfills.

Global warming in the twenty-first century: an alternative scenario

A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven mainly by non-CO(2) greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as chlorofluorocarbons, CH(4), and N(2)O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO(2) and aerosols, the positive and negative climate forcings of which are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO(2) GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH(4) and O(3) precursors were reduced in the future, the change in climate forcing by non-CO(2) GHGs in the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO(2) emissions, this reduction of non-CO(2) GHGs could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition-specific long-term global monitoring of aerosol properties.

Climate forcings in the industrial era

The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change. Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are well measured, cause a strong positive (warming) forcing. But other, poorly measured, anthropogenic forcings, especially changes of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, and land-use patterns, cause a negative forcing that tends to offset greenhouse warming. One consequence of this partial balance is that the natural forcing due to solar irradiance changes may play a larger role in long-term climate change than inferred from comparison with GHGs alone. Current trends in GHG climate forcings are smaller than in popular "business as usual" or 1% per year CO2 growth scenarios. The summary implication is a paradigm change for long-term climate projections: uncertainties in climate forcings have supplanted global climate sensitivity as the predominant issue.

Changes in tropospheric composition and air quality

Reductions in stratospheric ozone (O3) cause increased penetration of ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation to the troposphere, and therefore increases in the chemical activity in the lower atmosphere (the troposphere). Tropospheric ozone levels are sensitive to local concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and hydrocarbons. Model studies suggest that additional UV-B radiation reduces tropospheric ozone in clean environments (low NOx), and increases tropospheric ozone in polluted areas (high NOx). Assuming other factors remain constant, additional UV-B will increase the rate at which primary pollutants are removed from the troposphere. Increased UV-B is expected to increase the concentration of hydroxyl radicals (OH) and result in faster removal of pollutants such as carbon monoxide (CO), methane (CH4), non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs), sulfur and nitrogen oxides, hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Concentrations of peroxy radicals (both inorganic and organic) are expected to increase, leading to higher atmospheric levels of hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) and organic peroxides. The effects of UV-B increases on tropospheric O3, OH, methane, CO, and possibly other tropospheric constituents, while not negligible, will be difficult to detect because the concentrations of these species are also influenced by many other variable factors (e.g., emissions). Trifluoroacetic acid (TFA, CF3COOH) is produced in the atmosphere by the degradation of HCFC-123 (CF3CHCl2), HCFC-124 (CF3CHFCl), and HFC-134a (CF3CH2F), which are used as substitutes for ozone-depleting substances. The atmospheric oxidation mechanisms of these replacement compounds are well established. Reported measurements of TFA in rain, rivers, lakes, and oceans show it to be a ubiquitous component of the hydrosphere, present at levels much higher than can be explained by reported sources. The levels of TFA produced by the atmospheric degradation of HFCs and HCFCs emitted up to the year 2020 are estimated to be orders of magnitude below those of concern, and to make only a minor contribution to the current environmental burden of TFA. No significant effects on humans or the environment have been identified from TFA produced by atmospheric degradation of HCFCs and HFCs. Numerous standard short-term studies have shown that TFA has, at most, moderate toxicity.