Chabas H, Lion S, Nicot A, Meaden S, van Houte S, Moineau S, Wahl LM, Westra ER, Gandon S. Evolutionary emergence of infectious diseases in heterogeneous host populations.
PLoS Biol 2018;
16:e2006738. [PMID:
30248089 PMCID:
PMC6171948 DOI:
10.1371/journal.pbio.2006738]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 66] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/21/2018] [Revised: 10/04/2018] [Accepted: 09/05/2018] [Indexed: 12/26/2022] Open
Abstract
The emergence and re-emergence of pathogens remains a major public health concern. Unfortunately, when and where pathogens will (re-)emerge is notoriously difficult to predict, as the erratic nature of those events is reinforced by the stochastic nature of pathogen evolution during the early phase of an epidemic. For instance, mutations allowing pathogens to escape host resistance may boost pathogen spread and promote emergence. Yet, the ecological factors that govern such evolutionary emergence remain elusive because of the lack of ecological realism of current theoretical frameworks and the difficulty of experimentally testing their predictions. Here, we develop a theoretical model to explore the effects of the heterogeneity of the host population on the probability of pathogen emergence, with or without pathogen evolution. We show that evolutionary emergence and the spread of escape mutations in the pathogen population is more likely to occur when the host population contains an intermediate proportion of resistant hosts. We also show that the probability of pathogen emergence rapidly declines with the diversity of resistance in the host population. Experimental tests using lytic bacteriophages infecting their bacterial hosts containing Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeat and CRISPR-associated (CRISPR-Cas) immune defenses confirm these theoretical predictions. These results suggest effective strategies for cross-species spillover and for the management of emerging infectious diseases.
The probability that an epidemic will break out is highly dependent on the ability of the pathogen to acquire new adaptive mutations and to induce evolutionary emergence. Forecasting pathogen emergence thus requires a good understanding of the interplay between the epidemiology and evolution taking place at the onset of an outbreak. Here, we provide a comprehensive theoretical framework to analyze the impact of host population heterogeneity on the probability of pathogen evolutionary emergence. We use this model to predict the impact of the fraction of susceptible hosts, the inoculum size of the pathogen, and the diversity of host resistance on pathogen emergence. Our experiments using lytic bacteriophages and CRISPR-resistant bacteria support our theoretical predictions and demonstrate that manipulating the diversity of resistance alleles in a host population may be an effective way to limit the emergence of new pathogens.
Collapse