Evolutionary rescue and the limits of adaptation

Rapid evolutionary responses of life history traits to different experimentally-induced pollutions in Caenorhabditis elegans

BACKGROUND

Anthropogenic disturbances can lead to intense selection pressures on traits and very rapid evolutionary changes. Evolutionary responses to environmental changes, in turn, reflect changes in the genetic structure of the traits, accompanied by a reduction of evolutionary potential of the populations under selection. Assessing the effects of pollutants on the evolutionary responses and on the genetic structure of populations is thus important to understanding the mechanisms that entail specialization to novel environmental conditions or resistance to novel stressors.

RESULTS

Using an experimental evolution approach we exposed Caenorhabditis elegans populations to uranium, salt and alternating uranium-salt environments over 22 generations. We analyzed the changes in the average values of life history traits and the consequences at the demographic level in these populations. We also estimated the phenotypic and genetic (co)variance structure of these traits at different generations. Compared to populations in salt, populations in uranium showed a reduction of the stability of their trait structure and a higher capacity to respond by acclimation. However, the evolutionary responses of traits were generally lower for uranium compared to salt treatment; and the evolutionary responses to the alternating uranium-salt environment were between those of constant environments. Consequently, at the end of the experiment, the population rate of increase was higher in uranium than in salt and intermediate in the alternating environment.

CONCLUSIONS

Our multigenerational experiment confirmed that rapid adaptation to different polluted environments may involve different evolutionary responses resulting in demographic consequences. These changes are partly explained by the effects of the pollutants on the genetic (co)variance structure of traits and the capacity of acclimation to novel conditions. Finally, our results in the alternating environment may confirm the selection of a generalist type in this environment.

Transgenerational acclimation of fishes to climate change and ocean acidification

There is growing concern about the impacts of climate change and ocean acidification on marine organisms and ecosystems, yet the potential for acclimation and adaptation to these threats is poorly understood. Whereas many short-term experiments report negative biological effects of ocean warming and acidification, new studies show that some marine species have the capacity to acclimate to warmer and more acidic environments across generations. Consequently, transgenerational plasticity may be a powerful mechanism by which populations of some species will be able to adjust to projected climate change. Here, I review recent advances in understanding transgenerational acclimation in fishes. Research over the past 2 to 3 years shows that transgenerational acclimation can partially or fully ameliorate negative effects of warming, acidification, and hypoxia in a range of different species. The molecular and cellular pathways underpinning transgenerational acclimation are currently unknown, but modern genetic methods provide the tools to explore these mechanisms. Despite the potential benefits of transgenerational acclimation, there could be limitations to the phenotypic traits that respond transgenerationally, and trade-offs between life stages, that need to be investigated. Future studies should also test the potential interactions between transgenerational plasticity and genetic evolution to determine how these two processes will shape adaptive responses to environmental change over coming decades.

Evolutionary rescue: linking theory for conservation and medicine

Evolutionary responses that rescue populations from extinction when drastic environmental changes occur can be friend or foe. The field of conservation biology is concerned with the survival of species in deteriorating global habitats. In medicine, in contrast, infected patients are treated with chemotherapeutic interventions, but drug resistance can compromise eradication of pathogens. These contrasting biological systems and goals have created two quite separate research communities, despite addressing the same central question of whether populations will decline to extinction or be rescued through evolution. We argue that closer integration of the two fields, especially of theoretical understanding, would yield new insights and accelerate progress on these applied problems. Here, we overview and link mathematical modelling approaches in these fields, suggest specific areas with potential for fruitful exchange, and discuss common ideas and issues for empirical testing and prediction.

Fundamental population-productivity relationships can be modified through density-dependent feedbacks of life-history evolution

The evolution of life histories over contemporary time scales will almost certainly affect population demography. One important pathway for such eco-evolutionary interactions is the density-dependent regulation of population dynamics. Here, we investigate how fisheries-induced evolution (FIE) might alter density-dependent population-productivity relationships. To this end, we simulate the eco-evolutionary dynamics of an Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) population under fishing, followed by a period of recovery in the absence of fishing. FIE is associated with increases in juvenile production, the ratio of juveniles to mature population biomass, and the ratio of the mature population biomass relative to the total population biomass. In contrast, net reproductive rate (R 0 ) and per capita population growth rate (r) decline concomitantly with evolution. Our findings suggest that FIE can substantially modify the fundamental population-productivity relationships that underlie density-dependent population regulation and that form the primary population-dynamical basis for fisheries stock-assessment projections. From a conservation and fisheries-rebuilding perspective, we find that FIE reduces R 0 and r, the two fundamental correlates of population recovery ability and inversely extinction probability.

Detecting the unexpected: a research framework for ocean acidification

The threat that ocean acidification (OA) poses to marine ecosystems is now recognized and U.S. funding agencies have designated specific funding for the study of OA. We present a research framework for studying OA that describes it as a biogeochemical event that impacts individual species and ecosystems in potentially unexpected ways. We draw upon specific lessons learned about ecosystem responses from research on acid rain, carbon dioxide enrichment in terrestrial plant communities, and nitrogen deposition. We further characterize the links between carbon chemistry changes and effects on individuals and ecosystems, and enumerate key hypotheses for testing. Finally, we quantify how U.S. research funding has been distributed among these linkages, concluding that there is an urgent need for research programs designed to anticipate how the effects of OA will reverberate throughout assemblages of species.

Extinction risk and eco-evolutionary dynamics in a variable environment with increasing frequency of extreme events

One of the most dramatic consequences of climate change will be the intensification and increased frequency of extreme events. I used numerical simulations to understand and predict the consequences of directional trend (i.e. mean state) and increased variability of a climate variable (e.g. temperature), increased probability of occurrence of point extreme events (e.g. floods), selection pressure and effect size of mutations on a quantitative trait determining individual fitness, as well as the their effects on the population and genetic dynamics of a population of moderate size. The interaction among climate trend, variability and probability of point extremes had a minor effect on risk of extinction, time to extinction and distribution of the trait after accounting for their independent effects. The survival chances of a population strongly and linearly decreased with increasing strength of selection, as well as with increasing climate trend and variability. Mutation amplitude had no effects on extinction risk, time to extinction or genetic adaptation to the new climate. Climate trend and strength of selection largely determined the shift of the mean phenotype in the population. The extinction or persistence of the populations in an 'extinction window' of 10 years was well predicted by a simple model including mean population size and mean genetic variance over a 10-year time frame preceding the 'extinction window', although genetic variance had a smaller role than population size in predicting contemporary risk of extinction.

Can resistant coral-Symbiodinium associations enable coral communities to survive climate change? A study of a site exposed to long-term hot water input

Climate change has led to a decline in the health of corals and coral reefs around the world. Studies have shown that, while some corals can cope with natural and anthropogenic stressors either through resistance mechanisms of coral hosts or through sustainable relationships with Symbiodinium clades or types, many coral species cannot. Here, we show that the corals present in a reef in southern Taiwan, and exposed to long-term elevated seawater temperatures due to the presence of a nuclear power plant outlet (NPP OL), are unique in terms of species and associated Symbiodinium types. At shallow depths (<3 m), eleven coral genera elsewhere in Kenting predominantly found with Symbiodinium types C1 and C3 (stress sensitive) were instead hosting Symbiodinium type D1a (stress tolerant) or a mixture of Symbiodinium type C1/C3/C21a/C15 and Symbiodinium type D1a. Of the 16 coral genera that dominate the local reefs, two that are apparently unable to associate with Symbiodinium type D1a are not present at NPP OL at depths of <3 m. Two other genera present at NPP OL and other locations host a specific type of Symbiodinium type C15. These data imply that coral assemblages may have the capacity to maintain their presence at the generic level against long-term disturbances such as elevated seawater temperatures by acclimatization through successful association with a stress-tolerant Symbiodinium over time. However, at the community level it comes at the cost of some coral genera being lost, suggesting that species unable to associate with a stress-tolerant Symbiodinium are likely to become extinct locally and unfavorable shifts in coral communities are likely to occur under the impact of climate change.

Phylogenetic patterns of climatic, habitat and trophic niches in a European avian assemblage

AIM

The origins of ecological diversity in continental species assemblages have long intrigued biogeographers. We apply phylogenetic comparative analyses to disentangle the evolutionary patterns of ecological niches in an assemblage of European birds. We compare phylogenetic patterns in trophic, habitat and climatic niche components.

LOCATION

Europe.

METHODS

From polygon range maps and handbook data we inferred the realized climatic, habitat and trophic niches of 405 species of breeding birds in Europe. We fitted Pagel's lambda and kappa statistics, and conducted analyses of disparity through time to compare temporal patterns of ecological diversification on all niche axes together. All observed patterns were compared with expectations based on neutral (Brownian) models of niche divergence.

RESULTS

In this assemblage, patterns of phylogenetic signal (lambda) suggest that related species resemble each other less in regard to their climatic and habitat niches than they do in their trophic niche. Kappa estimates show that ecological divergence does not gradually increase with divergence time, and that this punctualism is stronger in climatic niches than in habitat and trophic niches. Observed niche disparity markedly exceeds levels expected from a Brownian model of ecological diversification, thus providing no evidence for past phylogenetic niche conservatism in these multivariate niches. Levels of multivariate disparity are greatest for the climatic niche, followed by disparity of the habitat and the trophic niches.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

Phylogenetic patterns in the three niche components differ within this avian assemblage. Variation in evolutionary rates (degree of gradualism, constancy through the tree) and/or non-random macroecological sampling probably lead here to differences in the phylogenetic structure of niche components. Testing hypotheses on the origin of these patterns requires more complete phylogenetic trees of the birds, and extended ecological data on different niche components for all bird species.

Evolutionary rescue can maintain an oscillating community undergoing environmental change

The persistence of ecological communities is challenged by widespread and rapid environmental change. In many cases, persistence may not be assured via physiological acclimation or migration and so species must adapt rapidly in situ. This process of evolutionary rescue (ER) occurs when genetic adaptation allows a population to recover from decline initiated by environmental change that would otherwise cause extirpation. Community evolutionary rescue (CER) occurs when one or more species undergo a rapid evolutionary response to environmental change, resulting in the recovery of the ancestral community. Here, we study the dynamics of CER within a three-species community coexisting by virtue of resource oscillations brought about by nonlinear interactions between two species competing for a live resource. We allowed gradual environmental change to affect the traits that determine the strength and symmetry of the interaction among species. By allowing the component species to evolve rapidly, we found that: (i) trait evolution can allow CER and ensure the community persists by preventing competitive exclusion during environmental change, (ii) CER brings about a change in the character of the oscillations (period, amplitude) governing coexistence before and after environmental change, and (iii) CER may depend on evolutionary change that occurs simultaneously with or subsequently to environmental change. We were able to show that a change in the character of community oscillations may be a signature that a community is undergoing ER. Our study extends the theory on ER to a world of nonlinear community dynamics where-despite high-frequency changes of population abundances-adaptive evolutionary trait change can be gradual and directional, and therefore contribute to community rescue. ER may happen in real, complex communities that fluctuate owing to a mix of external and internal forces. Experiments testing this theory are now required to validate our predictions.

Rapid evolution of quantitative traits: theoretical perspectives

An increasing number of studies demonstrate phenotypic and genetic changes in natural populations that are subject to climate change, and there is hope that some of these changes will contribute to avoiding species extinctions ('evolutionary rescue'). Here, we review theoretical models of rapid evolution in quantitative traits that can shed light on the potential for adaptation to a changing climate. Our focus is on quantitative-genetic models with selection for a moving phenotypic optimum. We point out that there is no one-to-one relationship between the rate of adaptation and population survival, because the former depends on relative fitness and the latter on absolute fitness. Nevertheless, previous estimates that sustainable rates of genetically based change usually do not exceed 0.1 haldanes (i.e., phenotypic standard deviations per generation) are probably correct. Survival can be greatly facilitated by phenotypic plasticity, and heritable variation in plasticity can further speed up genetic evolution. Multivariate selection and genetic correlations are frequently assumed to constrain adaptation, but this is not necessarily the case and depends on the geometric relationship between the fitness landscape and the structure of genetic variation. Similar conclusions hold for adaptation to shifting spatial gradients. Recent models of adaptation in multispecies communities indicate that the potential for rapid evolution is strongly influenced by interspecific competition.

Predicting evolutionary responses to climate change in the sea

An increasing number of short-term experimental studies show significant effects of projected ocean warming and ocean acidification on the performance on marine organisms. Yet, it remains unclear if we can reliably predict the impact of climate change on marine populations and ecosystems, because we lack sufficient understanding of the capacity for marine organisms to adapt to rapid climate change. In this review, we emphasise why an evolutionary perspective is crucial to understanding climate change impacts in the sea and examine the approaches that may be useful for addressing this challenge. We first consider what the geological record and present-day analogues of future climate conditions can tell us about the potential for adaptation to climate change. We also examine evidence that phenotypic plasticity may assist marine species to persist in a rapidly changing climate. We then outline the various experimental approaches that can be used to estimate evolutionary potential, focusing on molecular tools, quantitative genetics, and experimental evolution, and we describe the benefits of combining different approaches to gain a deeper understanding of evolutionary potential. Our goal is to provide a platform for future research addressing the evolutionary potential for marine organisms to cope with climate change.

Changing geographic ranges of ticks and tick-borne pathogens: drivers, mechanisms and consequences for pathogen diversity

The geographic ranges of ticks and tick-borne pathogens are changing due to global and local environmental (including climatic) changes. In this review we explore current knowledge of the drivers for changes in the ranges of ticks and tick-borne pathogen species and strains via effects on their basic reproduction number (R₀), and the mechanisms of dispersal that allow ticks and tick-borne pathogens to invade suitable environments. Using the expanding geographic distribution of the vectors and agent of Lyme disease as an example we then investigate what could be expected of the diversity of tick-borne pathogens during the process of range expansion, and compare this with what is currently being observed. Lastly we explore how historic population and range expansions and contractions could be reflected in the phylogeography of ticks and tick-borne pathogens seen in recent years, and conclude that combined study of currently changing tick and tick-borne pathogen ranges and diversity, with phylogeographic analysis, may help us better predict future patterns of invasion and diversity.

Evolutionary rescue: an emerging focus at the intersection between ecology and evolution

There is concern that the rate of environmental change is now exceeding the capacity of many populations to adapt. Mitigation of biodiversity loss requires science that integrates both ecological and evolutionary responses of populations and communities to rapid environmental change, and can identify the conditions that allow the recovery of declining populations. This special issue focuses on evolutionary rescue (ER), the idea that evolution might occur sufficiently fast to arrest population decline and allow population recovery before extinction ensues. ER emphasizes a shift to a perspective on evolutionary dynamics that focuses on short time-scales, genetic variants of large effects and absolute rather than relative fitness. The contributions in this issue reflect the state of field; the articles address the latest conceptual developments, and report novel theoretical and experimental results. The examples in this issue demonstrate that this burgeoning area of research can inform problems of direct practical concern, such as the conservation of biodiversity, adaptation to climate change and the emergence of infectious disease. The continued development of research on ER will be necessary if we are to understand the extent to which anthropogenic global change will reduce the Earth's biodiversity.

Evolutionary and plastic rescue in multitrophic model communities

Under changing environmental conditions, intraspecific variation can potentially rescue populations from extinction. There are two principal sources of variation that may ultimately lead to population rescue: genetic diversity and phenotypic plasticity. We compared the potential for evolutionary rescue (through genetic diversity) and plastic rescue (through phenotypic plasticity) by analysing their differential ability to produce dynamical stability and persistence in model food webs. We also evaluated how rescue is affected by the trophic location of variation. We tested the following hypotheses: (i) plastic communities are more likely to exhibit stability and persistence than communities in which genetic diversity provides the same range of traits. (ii) Variation at the lowest trophic level promotes stability and persistence more than variation at higher levels. (iii) Communities with variation at two levels have greater probabilities of stability and persistence than communities with variation at only one level. We found that (i) plasticity promotes stability and persistence more than genetic diversity; (ii) variation at the second highest trophic level promotes stability and persistence more than variation at the autotroph level; and (iii) more than variation at two trophic levels. Our study shows that proper evaluation of the rescue potential of intraspecific variation critically depends on its origin and trophic location.

The probability of evolutionary rescue: towards a quantitative comparison between theory and evolution experiments

Evolutionary rescue occurs when a population genetically adapts to a new stressful environment that would otherwise cause its extinction. Forecasting the probability of persistence under stress, including emergence of drug resistance as a special case of interest, requires experimentally validated quantitative predictions. Here, we propose general analytical predictions, based on diffusion approximations, for the probability of evolutionary rescue. We assume a narrow genetic basis for adaptation to stress, as is often the case for drug resistance. First, we extend the rescue model of Orr & Unckless (Am. Nat. 2008 172, 160-169) to a broader demographic and genetic context, allowing the model to apply to empirical systems with variation among mutation effects on demography, overlapping generations and bottlenecks, all common features of microbial populations. Second, we confront our predictions of rescue probability with two datasets from experiments with Saccharomyces cerevisiae (yeast) and Pseudomonas fluorescens (bacterium). The tests show the qualitative agreement between the model and observed patterns, and illustrate how biologically relevant quantities, such as the per capita rate of rescue, can be estimated from fits of empirical data. Finally, we use the results of the model to suggest further, more quantitative, tests of evolutionary rescue theory.