Oseltamivir-resistant influenza viruses A (H1N1), Norway, 2007-08

Rare influenza A (H3N2) variants with reduced sensitivity to antiviral drugs

In 2007 and 2008 in Myanmar, we detected influenza viruses A (H3N2) that exhibited reduced sensitivity to both zanamivir and amantadine. These rare and naturally occurring viruses harbored a novel Q136K mutation in neuraminidase and S31N mutation in M2.

BPR2-D2 targeting viral ribonucleoprotein complex-associated function inhibits oseltamivir-resistant influenza viruses

OBJECTIVES

The emergence of oseltamivir-resistant viruses raised the global threat with regard to influenza virus infection. To develop alternative antiviral agents against influenza virus infection is significant and urgent.

METHODS

A neutralization test was applied as a screening assay and a plaque reduction assay was used for confirmation. Expression plasmids for viral ribonucleoproteins (RNPs) and a plasmid that allowed expression of a pseudoviral reporter RNA were transfected into cells to investigate the effects of a novel antiviral compound on viral RNA synthesis.

RESULTS

BPR2-D2 was identified as a novel inhibitor against influenza virus from a hit obtained from high throughput screening of 20 000 or more compounds. BPR2-D2 exhibited an excellent antiviral efficacy for the oseltamivir-resistant virus (EC(50) ranging from 0.021 to 0.040 microM). No resistant virus was produced throughout 20 passages in the presence of BPR2-D2, whereas oseltamivir-resistant virus was generated at passage 8 using the same experimental system. A molecular target other than neuraminidase (NA) was found because BPR2-D2 inhibited the synthesis of viral RNA that was driven by influenza viral RNP in a transfection assay. BPR2-D2 also exhibited a broad antiviral spectrum against various strains of influenza A and influenza B viruses.

CONCLUSIONS

BPR2-D2 was identified as a novel inhibitor of influenza virus. It may target viral RNPs that are responsible for viral RNA synthesis. Targeting different molecules compared with NA allows BPR2-D2 to inhibit oseltamivir-resistant viruses.

Selection for resistance to oseltamivir in seasonal and pandemic H1N1 influenza and widespread co-circulation of the lineages

Background

In Spring 2009, a novel reassortant strain of H1N1 influenza A emerged as a lineage distinct from seasonal H1N1. On June 11, the World Heath Organization declared a pandemic - the first since 1968. There are currently two main branches of H1N1 circulating in humans, a seasonal branch and a pandemic branch. The primary treatment method for pandemic and seasonal H1N1 is the antiviral drug Tamiflu^® (oseltamivir). Although many seasonal H1N1 strains around the world are resistant to oseltamivir, initially, pandemic H1N1 strains have been susceptible to oseltamivir. As of February 3, 2010, there have been reports of resistance to oseltamivir in 225 cases of H1N1 pandemic influenza. The evolution of resistance to oseltamivir in pandemic H1N1 could be due to point mutations in the neuraminidase or a reassortment event between seasonal H1N1 and pandemic H1N1 viruses that provide a neuraminidase carrying an oseltamivir-resistant genotype to pandemic H1N1.

Results

Using phylogenetic analysis of neuraminidase sequences, we show that both seasonal and pandemic lineages of H1N1 are evolving to direct selective pressure for resistance to oseltamivir. Moreover, seasonal lineages of H1N1 that are resistant to oseltamivir co-circulate with pandemic H1N1 throughout the globe. By combining phylogenetic and geographic data we have thus far identified 53 areas of co-circulation where reassortment can occur. At our website POINTMAP, http://pointmap.osu.edu we make available a visualization and an application for updating these results as more data are released.

Conclusions

As oseltamivir is a keystone of preparedness and treatment for pandemic H1N1, the potential for resistance to oseltamivir is an ongoing concern. Reassortment and, more likely, point mutation have the potential to create a strain of pandemic H1N1 against which we have a reduced number of treatment options.

Pyrazole compound BPR1P0034 with potent and selective anti-influenza virus activity

Background

Influenza viruses are a major cause of morbidity and mortality around the world. More recently, a swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus that is spreading via human-to-human transmission has become a serious public concern. Although vaccination is the primary strategy for preventing infections, influenza antiviral drugs play an important role in a comprehensive approach to controlling illness and transmission. In addition, a search for influenza-inhibiting drugs is particularly important in the face of high rate of emergence of influenza strains resistant to several existing influenza antivirals.

Methods

We searched for novel anti-influenza inhibitors using a cell-based neutralization (inhibition of virus-induced cytopathic effect) assay. After screening 20,800 randomly selected compounds from a library from ChemDiv, Inc., we found that BPR1P0034 has sub-micromolar antiviral activity. The compound was resynthesized in five steps by conventional chemical techniques. Lead optimization and a structure-activity analysis were used to improve potency. Time-of-addition assay was performed to target an event in the virus life cycle.

Results

The 50% effective inhibitory concentration (IC₅₀) of BPR1P0034 was 0.42 ± 0.11 μM, when measured with a plaque reduction assay. Viral protein and RNA synthesis of A/WSN/33 (H1N1) was inhibited by BPR1P0034 and the virus-induced cytopathic effects were thus significantly reduced. BPR1P0034 exhibited broad inhibition spectrum for influenza viruses but showed no antiviral effect for enteroviruses and echovirus 9. In a time-of-addition assay, in which the compound was added at different stages along the viral replication cycle (such as at adsorption or after adsorption), its antiviral activity was more efficient in cells treated with the test compound between 0 and 2 h, right after viral infection, implying that an early step of viral replication might be the target of the compound. These results suggest that BPR1P0034 targets the virus during viral uncoating or viral RNA importation into the nucleus.

Conclusions

To the best of our knowledge, BPR1P0034 is the first pyrazole-based anti-influenza compound ever identified and characterized from high throughput screening to show potent (sub-μM) antiviral activity. We conclude that BPR1P0034 has potential antiviral activity, which offers an opportunity for the development of a new anti-influenza virus agent.

Oseltamivir-resistant influenza A pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus, Hong Kong, China

Resistance to oseltamivir was observed in influenza A pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus isolated from an untreated person in Hong Kong, China. Investigations showed a resistant virus with the neuraminidase (NA) 274Y genotype in quasi-species from a nasopharyngeal aspirate. Monitoring for the naturally occurring NA 274Y mutation in this virus is necessary.

Genetic makeup of amantadine-resistant and oseltamivir-resistant human influenza A/H1N1 viruses

The emergence and widespread occurrence of antiviral drug-resistant seasonal human influenza A viruses, especially oseltamivir-resistant A/H1N1 virus, are major concerns. To understand the genetic background of antiviral drug-resistant A/H1N1 viruses, we performed full genome sequencing of prepandemic A/H1N1 strains. Seasonal influenza A/H1N1 viruses, including antiviral-susceptible viruses, amantadine-resistant viruses, and oseltamivir-resistant viruses, obtained from several areas in Japan during the 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 influenza seasons were analyzed. Sequencing of the full genomes of these viruses was performed, and the phylogenetic relationships among the sequences of each individual genome segment were inferred. Reference genome sequences from the Influenza Virus Resource database were included to determine the closest ancestor for each segment. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that the oseltamivir-resistant strain evolved from a reassortant oseltamivir-susceptible strain (clade 2B) which circulated in the 2007-2008 season by acquiring the H275Y resistance-conferring mutation in the NA gene. The oseltamivir-resistant lineage (corresponding to the Northern European resistant lineage) represented 100% of the H1N1 isolates from the 2008-2009 season and further acquired at least one mutation in each of the polymerase basic protein 2 (PB2), polymerase basic protein 1 (PB1), hemagglutinin (HA), and neuraminidase (NA) genes. Therefore, a reassortment event involving two distinct oseltamivir-susceptible lineages, followed by the H275Y substitution in the NA gene and other mutations elsewhere in the genome, contributed to the emergence of the oseltamivir-resistant lineage. In contrast, amantadine-resistant viruses from the 2007-2008 season distinctly clustered in clade 2C and were characterized by extensive amino acid substitutions across their genomes, suggesting that a fitness gap among its genetic components might have driven these mutations to maintain it in the population.

The natural viral load profile of patients with pandemic 2009 influenza A(H1N1) and the effect of oseltamivir treatment

BACKGROUND

The natural history of viral shedding from the upper respiratory tract of the new pandemic 2009 influenza A(H1N1) and the effect of oseltamivir treatment were uncertain.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study involving 145 consecutive patients with specimens positive by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction for the matrix and new H1 genes was conducted.

RESULTS

The nontreated and oseltamivir-treated patients were comparable in their viral load at presentation, demography, and the presenting symptoms. No correlation was observed between viral load with age and number of symptoms. Viral load of nasopharyngeal aspirate (NPA) was significantly lower in treated than in nontreated patients at day 5 after symptom onset. When oseltamivir was initiated </= 2 days after symptom onset, a greater rate of viral load reduction in NPA of treated patients than that of nontreated patients was observed (-0.638 [95% CI, -0.809 to -0.466] vs -0.409 [95% CI, -0.663 to -0.185] log(10) copies/mL/d post-symptom onset), and the viral load was undetectable at day 6 after oseltamivir initiation, which was 1 day earlier than that of those whose treatment was initiated > 2 days of symptom onset. The viral load was inversely correlated with concomitant absolute lymphocyte count in nontreated patients (Pearson correlation coefficient [r] = -0.687, P = .001) and treated patients (Pearson r = -0.365, P < .001). Resolution of fever was 1.4 days later in nontreated than treated patients (P = .012)

CONCLUSIONS

The natural viral load profile was described. Oral oseltamivir suppresses viral load more effectively when given early in mild cases of pandemic 2009 influenza A(H1N1) infections.

T-705 (favipiravir) activity against lethal H5N1 influenza A viruses

The neuraminidase inhibitors oseltamivir and zanamivi are used to treat H5N1 influenza. However, oseltamivir-resistant H5N1 viruses have been isolated from oseltamivir-treated patients. Moreover, reassortment between H5N1 viruses and oseltamvir-resistant human H1N1 viruses currently circulating could create oseltamivir-resistant H5N1 viruses, rendering the oseltamivir stockpile obsolete. Therefore, there is a need for unique and effective antivirals to combat H5N1 influenza viruses. The investigational drug T-705 (favipiravir; 6-fluoro-3-hydroxy-2-pyrazinecarboxamide) has antiviral activity against seasonal influenza viruses and a mouse-adapted H5N1 influenza virus derived from a benign duck virus. However, its efficacy against highly pathogenic H5N1 viruses, which are substantially more virulent, remains unclear. Here, we demonstrate that T-705 effectively protects mice from lethal infection with oseltamivir-sensitive or -resistant highly pathogenic H5N1 viruses. Furthermore, our biochemical analysis suggests that T-705 ribofuranosyl triphosphate, an active form of T-705, acts like purines or purine nucleosides in human cells and does not inhibit human DNA synthesis. We conclude that T-705 shows promise as a therapeutic agent for the treatment of highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza patients.

Ligand-based dual target drug design for H1N1: swine flu--a preliminary first study

In March and April, 2009, an outbreak of H1N1 influenza in Mexico had led to hundreds of confirmed cases and the death toll had risen to 160. The worldwide spread of H1N1 has been attracting global attention and arising an overwhelming fear. So far, the vaccine and remedy has been in urgent need. In this study, a QSAR model and pharmacophore map of neuraminidase (NA) type 1 (N1) contained two hydrogen bond acceptor features, one hydrogen bond donor feature, and one positive ionizable feature. NCI database was employed in virtual screen by the N1 pharmacophore map features. After screening, compounds were obtained and then docked into haemagglutinin type 1 (H1) to find out the candidate drugs for dual target of both N1 and H1. The candidate, NCI0353858, selected via virtual screening and docking, might be functional to this worldwide disease; consequently, further clinical investigations and scientific application are urgently demanded. We realize the proposed ligand does not have much validity without conducting a study on the stability of the protein-ligand complex by MD simulations and binding free energy, and such a study is underway and will be reported later in this journal. Nevertheless, the present study is clear, consistent and could give a rational explanation for the binding mode of the best selected ligand.

Host cell selection of influenza neuraminidase variants: implications for drug resistance monitoring in A(H1N1) viruses

The neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs), oseltamivir and zanamivir, are essential for treatment and prevention of influenza A and B infections. Oseltamivir resistance among influenza A (H1N1) viruses rapidly emerged and spread globally during the 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 influenza seasons. Approximately 20% and 90% of viruses tested for NAI susceptibility at CDC during these seasons, respectively, were resistant to oseltamivir (IC(50) approximately 100-3000 time>those of sensitive viruses), based on the chemiluminescent NA inhibition assay. Pyrosequencing analysis confirmed H274Y mutation (H275Y in N1 numbering) in the neuraminidase (NA) gene of oseltamivir-resistant viruses. Full NA sequence analysis of a subset of oseltamivir-resistant and sensitive virus isolates from both seasons (n=725) showed that 53 (7.3%) had mutations at residue D151 (D-->E/G/N), while 9 (1.2%) had mutations at Q136 (Q-->K) and 2 (0.3%) had mutations at both residues. Viruses with very high IC(50) for oseltamivir and peramivir, and elevated IC(50) for zanamivir, had H274Y in addition to mutations at D151 and/or Q136, residues which can potentially confer NAI resistance based on recent N1 NA crystal structure data. Mutations at D151 without H274Y, did not elevate IC(50) for any tested NAI, however, Q136K alone significantly reduced susceptibility to zanamivir (36-fold), peramivir (80-fold) and A-315675 (114-fold) but not oseltamivir. Mutations at D151 and Q136 were present only in MDCK grown viruses but not in matching original clinical specimens (n=33) which were available for testing, suggesting that these variants were the result of cell culture selection or they were present in very low proportions. Our findings provide evidence that propagation of influenza virus outside its natural host may lead to selection of virus variants with mutations in the NA that affect sensitivity to NAIs and thus poses implications for drug resistance monitoring and diagnostics.

In vitro generation of neuraminidase inhibitor resistance in A(H5N1) influenza viruses

To identify mutations that can arise in highly pathogenic A(H5N1) viruses under neuraminidase inhibitor selective pressure, two antigenically different strains were serially passaged with increasing levels of either oseltamivir or zanamivir. Under oseltamivir pressure, both A(H5N1) viruses developed a H274Y neuraminidase mutation, although in one strain the mutation occurred in combination with an I222M neuraminidase mutation. The H274Y neuraminidase mutation reduced oseltamivir susceptibility significantly (900- to 2,500-fold compared to the wild type). However the dual H274Y/I222M neuraminidase mutation had an even greater impact on resistance, with oseltamivir susceptibility reduced significantly further (8,000-fold compared to the wild type). A similar affect on oseltamivir susceptibility was observed when the dual H274Y/I222M mutations were introduced, by reverse genetics, into a recombinant seasonal human A(H1N1) virus and also when an alternative I222 substitution (I222V) was generated in combination with H274Y in A(H5N1) and A(H1N1) viruses. These viruses remained fully susceptible to zanamivir but demonstrated reduced susceptibility to peramivir. Following passage of the A(H5N1) viruses in the presence of zanamivir, the strains developed a D198G neuraminidase mutation, which reduced susceptibility to both zanamivir and oseltamivir, and also an E119G neuraminidase mutation, which demonstrated significantly reduced zanamivir susceptibility (1,400-fold compared to the wild type). Mutations in hemagglutinin residues implicated in receptor binding were also detected in many of the resistant strains. This study identified the mutations that can arise in A(H5N1) under either oseltamivir or zanamivir selective pressure and the potential for dual neuraminidase mutations to result in dramatically reduced drug susceptibility.

Large-scale sequence analysis of M gene of influenza A viruses from different species: mechanisms for emergence and spread of amantadine resistance

Influenza A virus infects many species, and amantadine is used as an antiviral agent. Recently, a substantial increase in amantadine-resistant strains has been reported, most of which have a substitution at amino acid position 31 in the M2 gene. Understanding the mechanism responsible for the emergence and spread of antiviral resistance is important for developing a treatment protocol for seasonal influenza and for deciding on a policy for antiviral stockpiling for pandemic influenza. The present study was conducted to identify the existence of drug pressure on the emergence and spread of amantadine-resistant influenza A viruses. We analyzed data on more than 5,000 virus sequences and constructed a phylogenetic tree to calculate selective pressures on sites in the M2 gene associated with amantadine resistance (positions 26, 27, 30, and 31) among different hosts. The phylogenetic tree revealed that the emergence and spread of the drug-resistant M gene in different hosts and subtypes were independent and not through reassortment. For human influenza virus, positive selection was detected only at position 27. Selective pressures on the sites were not always higher for human influenza virus than for viruses of other hosts. Additionally, selective pressure on position 31 did not increase after the introduction of amantadine. Although there is a possibility of drug pressure on human influenza virus, we could not find positive pressure on position 31. Because the recent rapid increase in drug-resistant virus is associated with the substitution at position 31, the resistance may not be related to drug use.

Zanamivir-resistant influenza viruses with a novel neuraminidase mutation

The neuraminidase inhibitors zanamivir and oseltamivir are marketed for the treatment and prophylaxis of influenza and have been stockpiled by many countries for use in a pandemic. Although recent surveillance has identified a striking increase in the frequency of oseltamivir-resistant seasonal influenza A (H1N1) viruses in Europe, the United States, Oceania, and South Africa, to date there have been no reports of significant zanamivir resistance among influenza A (H1N1) viruses or any other human influenza viruses. We investigated the frequency of oseltamivir and zanamivir resistance in circulating seasonal influenza A (H1N1) viruses in Australasia and Southeast Asia. Analysis of 391 influenza A (H1N1) viruses isolated between 2006 and early 2008 from Australasia and Southeast Asia revealed nine viruses (2.3%) that demonstrated markedly reduced zanamivir susceptibility and contained a previously undescribed Gln136Lys (Q136K) neuraminidase mutation. The mutation had no effect on oseltamivir susceptibility but caused approximately a 300-fold and a 70-fold reduction in zanamivir and peramivir susceptibility, respectively. The role of the Q136K mutation in conferring zanamivir resistance was confirmed using reverse genetics. Interestingly, the mutation was not detected in the primary clinical specimens from which these mutant isolates were grown, suggesting that the resistant viruses either occurred in very low proportions in the primary clinical specimens or arose during MDCK cell culture passage. Compared to susceptible influenza A (H1N1) viruses, the Q136K mutant strains displayed greater viral fitness than the wild-type virus in MDCK cells but equivalent infectivity and transmissibility in a ferret model.

Clinical effectiveness of oseltamivir for influenza A(H1N1) virus with H274Y neuraminidase mutation

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the clinical effectiveness of oseltamivir therapy started within 48h of the onset for influenza A(H1N1) virus with H274Y neuraminidase (NA) mutation.

METHODS

Virus was isolated before and four to six days after starting oseltamivir treatment from 73 outpatients with influenza A(H1N1) virus in the 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 seasons. NA inhibition assays (IC(50)) and sequence analyses were done using influenza viruses isolated from these patients. Body temperature was evaluated before and on the second, third, and fourth days after starting treatment.

RESULTS

H274Y mutation was not shown in the 2007-2008 season (44 patients) and shown in all 29 patients in the 2008-2009 season by NA sequence analyses. The mean IC(50) before oseltamivir treatment was significantly higher in 2008-2009 (319.3+/-185.4 nM) than in 2007-2008 (1.5+/-0.8 nM; p<.001). Patients < or =15 years with oseltamivir-resistant virus infection had a higher ratio of patients persisted virus after oseltamivir treatment than patients >15 years (50% and 11.8%, respectively, p=0.038), and a significant higher body temperature during oseltamivir treatment, compared to patients < or =15 years treated for oseltamivir-sensitive virus infection.

CONCLUSION

The clinical effectiveness of oseltamivir for the A(H1N1) virus was reduced in the 2008-2009 season compared with the previous season, especially in children, probably due to the H274Y mutation. Oseltamivir seems to be not recommended for children and patients with high-risk underlying diseases infected with H274Y mutated A(H1N1) virus.

Emergence and spread of oseltamivir-resistant A(H1N1) influenza viruses in Oceania, South East Asia and South Africa

The neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs) are an effective class of antiviral drugs for the treatment of influenza A and B infections. Until recently, only a low prevalence of NAI resistance (<1%) had been detected in circulating viruses. However, surveillance in Europe in late 2007 revealed significant numbers of A(H1N1) influenza strains with a H274Y neuraminidase mutation that were highly resistant to the NAI oseltamivir. We examined 264 A(H1N1) viruses collected in 2008 from South Africa, Oceania and SE Asia for their susceptibility to NAIs oseltamivir, zanamivir and peramivir in a fluorescence-based neuraminidase inhibition assay. Viruses with reduced oseltamivir susceptibility were further analysed by pyrosequencing assay. The frequency of the oseltamivir-resistant H274Y mutant increased significantly after May 2008, resulting in an overall proportion of 64% (168/264) resistance among A(H1N1) strains, although this subtype represented only 11.6% of all isolates received during 2008. H274Y mutant viruses demonstrated on average a 1466-fold reduction in oseltamivir susceptibility and 527-fold reduction in peramivir sensitivity compared to wild-type A(H1N1) viruses. The mutation had no impact on zanamivir susceptibility. Ongoing surveillance is essential to monitor how these strains may spread or persist in the future and to evaluate the effectiveness of treatments against them.

Can we "hedge" against the development of antiviral resistance among pandemic influenza viruses?

David K. Shay and Benjamin Ridenhour discuss a modeling study predicting that stockpiling a secondary antiviral for use early in a flu pandemic can forestall resistance to the primary stockpiled drug.

Pandemic potential of a strain of influenza A (H1N1): early findings

A novel influenza A (H1N1) virus has spread rapidly across the globe. Judging its pandemic potential is difficult with limited data, but nevertheless essential to inform appropriate health responses. By analyzing the outbreak in Mexico, early data on international spread, and viral genetic diversity, we make an early assessment of transmissibility and severity. Our estimates suggest that 23,000 (range 6000 to 32,000) individuals had been infected in Mexico by late April, giving an estimated case fatality ratio (CFR) of 0.4% (range: 0.3 to 1.8%) based on confirmed and suspected deaths reported to that time. In a community outbreak in the small community of La Gloria, Veracruz, no deaths were attributed to infection, giving an upper 95% bound on CFR of 0.6%. Thus, although substantial uncertainty remains, clinical severity appears less than that seen in the 1918 influenza pandemic but comparable with that seen in the 1957 pandemic. Clinical attack rates in children in La Gloria were twice that in adults (<15 years of age: 61%; >/=15 years: 29%). Three different epidemiological analyses gave basic reproduction number (R0) estimates in the range of 1.4 to 1.6, whereas a genetic analysis gave a central estimate of 1.2. This range of values is consistent with 14 to 73 generations of human-to-human transmission having occurred in Mexico to late April. Transmissibility is therefore substantially higher than that of seasonal flu, and comparable with lower estimates of R0 obtained from previous influenza pandemics.

Hedging against antiviral resistance during the next influenza pandemic using small stockpiles of an alternative chemotherapy

BACKGROUND

The effectiveness of single-drug antiviral interventions to reduce morbidity and mortality during the next influenza pandemic will be substantially weakened if transmissible strains emerge which are resistant to the stockpiled antiviral drugs. We developed a mathematical model to test the hypothesis that a small stockpile of a secondary antiviral drug could be used to mitigate the adverse consequences of the emergence of resistant strains.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We used a multistrain stochastic transmission model of influenza to show that the spread of antiviral resistance can be significantly reduced by deploying a small stockpile (1% population coverage) of a secondary drug during the early phase of local epidemics. We considered two strategies for the use of the secondary stockpile: early combination chemotherapy (ECC; individuals are treated with both drugs in combination while both are available); and sequential multidrug chemotherapy (SMC; individuals are treated only with the secondary drug until it is exhausted, then treated with the primary drug). We investigated all potentially important regions of unknown parameter space and found that both ECC and SMC reduced the cumulative attack rate (AR) and the resistant attack rate (RAR) unless the probability of emergence of resistance to the primary drug p(A) was so low (less than 1 in 10,000) that resistance was unlikely to be a problem or so high (more than 1 in 20) that resistance emerged as soon as primary drug monotherapy began. For example, when the basic reproductive number was 1.8 and 40% of symptomatic individuals were treated with antivirals, AR and RAR were 67% and 38% under monotherapy if p(A) = 0.01. If the probability of resistance emergence for the secondary drug was also 0.01, then SMC reduced AR and RAR to 57% and 2%. The effectiveness of ECC was similar if combination chemotherapy reduced the probabilities of resistance emergence by at least ten times. We extended our model using travel data between 105 large cities to investigate the robustness of these resistance-limiting strategies at a global scale. We found that as long as populations that were the main source of resistant strains employed these strategies (SMC or ECC), then those same strategies were also effective for populations far from the source even when some intermediate populations failed to control resistance. In essence, through the existence of many wild-type epidemics, the interconnectedness of the global network dampened the international spread of resistant strains.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate that the augmentation of existing stockpiles of a single anti-influenza drug with smaller stockpiles of a second drug could be an effective and inexpensive epidemiological hedge against antiviral resistance if either SMC or ECC were used. Choosing between these strategies will require additional empirical studies. Specifically, the choice will depend on the safety of combination therapy and the synergistic effect of one antiviral in suppressing the emergence of resistance to the other antiviral when both are taken in combination.

Sales of oseltamivir in Norway prior to the emergence of oseltamivir resistant influenza A(H1N1) viruses in 2007-08

BACKGROUND

An unprecedented high proportion of oseltamivir resistant influenza A(H1N1) viruses emerged in the 2007-08 influenza season. In Norway, two thirds of all tested A(H1N1) viruses were resistant to the antiviral drug. In order to see if this emergence could be explained by a drug induced selection pressure, we analysed data on the sales of oseltamivir in Norway for the years 2002-07.

METHODS

We used data from two sources; the Norwegian Drug Wholesales Statistics Database and the Norwegian Prescription Database (NorPD), for the years 2002-2007. We calculated courses sold of oseltamivir (Tamiflu) per 1000 inhabitants per year.

RESULTS

Our data showed that, except for the years 2005 and 2006, sales of oseltamivir were low in Norway; courses sold per 1000 inhabitants varied between 0.17-1.64. The higher sales in 2005 and 2006 we believe were caused by private stockpiling in fear of a pandemic, and do not represent actual usage.

CONCLUSION

A drug induced selection pressure was probably not the cause of the emergence of oseltamivir resistant influenza A(H1N1) viruses in 2007-08 in Norway.

Influenza virus resistance to antiviral agents: a plea for rational use

Although influenza vaccine can prevent influenza virus infection, the only therapeutic options to treat influenza virus infection are antiviral agents. At the current time, nearly all influenza A/H3N2 viruses and a percentage of influenza A/H1N1 viruses are adamantane resistant, which leaves only neuraminidase inhibitors available for treatment of infection with these viruses. In December 2008, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released new data demonstrating that a high percentage of circulating influenza A/H1N1 viruses are now resistant to oseltamivir. In addition, oseltamivir-resistant influenza B and A/H5N1 viruses have been identified. Thus, use of monotherapy for influenza virus infection is irrational and may contribute to mutational pressure for further selection of antiviral-resistant strains. History has demonstrated that monotherapy for influenza virus infection leads to resistance, resulting in the use of a new monotherapy agent followed by resistance to that new agent and thus resulting in a background of viruses resistant to both drugs. We argue that combination antiviral therapy, new guidelines for indications for treatment, point-of-care diagnostic testing, and a universal influenza vaccination recommendation are critical to protecting the population against influenza virus and to preserving the benefits of antiviral agents.

Seasonal influenza in adults and children--diagnosis, treatment, chemoprophylaxis, and institutional outbreak management: clinical practice guidelines of the Infectious Diseases Society of America

Guidelines for the treatment of persons with influenza virus infection were prepared by an Expert Panel of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. The evidence-based guidelines encompass diagnostic issues, treatment and chemoprophylaxis with antiviral medications, and issues related to institutional outbreak management for seasonal (interpandemic) influenza. They are intended for use by physicians in all medical specialties with direct patient care, because influenza virus infection is common in communities during influenza season and may be encountered by practitioners caring for a wide variety of patients.