Urban adaptation can roll back warming of emerging megapolitan regions

Modeling results incorporating several distinct urban expansion futures for the United States in 2100 show that, in the absence of any adaptive urban design, megapolitan expansion, alone and separate from greenhouse gas-induced forcing, can be expected to raise near-surface temperatures 1-2 °C not just at the scale of individual cities but over large regional swaths of the country. This warming is a significant fraction of the 21st century greenhouse gas-induced climate change simulated by global climate models. Using a suite of regional climate simulations, we assessed the efficacy of commonly proposed urban adaptation strategies, such as green, cool roof, and hybrid approaches, to ameliorate the warming. Our results quantify how judicious choices in urban planning and design cannot only counteract the climatological impacts of the urban expansion itself but also, can, in fact, even offset a significant percentage of future greenhouse warming over large scales. Our results also reveal tradeoffs among different adaptation options for some regions, showing the need for geographically appropriate strategies rather than one size fits all solutions.

A multisensor evaluation of the asymmetric convective model, version 2, in southeast Texas

There currently exist a number of planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes that can represent the effects of turbulence in daytime convective conditions, although these schemes remain a large source of uncertainty in meteorology and air quality model simulations. This study evaluates a recently developed combined local and nonlocal closure PBL scheme, the Asymmetric Convective Model, version 2 (ACM2), against PBL observations taken from radar wind profilers, a ground-based lidar, and multiple daytime radiosonde balloon launches. These observations were compared against predictions of PBLs from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.1 with the ACM2 PBL scheme option, and the Fifth-Generation Meteorological Model (MM5) version 3.7.3 with the Eta PBL scheme option that is currently being used to develop ozone control strategies in southeast Texas. MM5 and WRF predictions during the regulatory modeling episode were evaluated on their ability to predict the rise and fall of the PBL during daytime convective conditions across southeastern Texas. The MM5 predicted PBLs consistently underpredicted observations, and were also less than the WRF PBL predictions. The analysis reveals that the MM5 predicted a slower rising and shallower PBL not representative of the daytime urban boundary layer. Alternatively, the WRF model predicted a more accurate PBL evolution improving the root mean square error (RMSE), both temporally and spatially. The WRF model also more accurately predicted vertical profiles of temperature and moisture in the lowest 3 km of the atmosphere. Inspection of median surface temperature and moisture time-series plots revealed higher predicted surface temperatures in WRF and more surface moisture in MM5. These could not be attributed to surface heat fluxes, and thus the differences in performance of the WRF and MM5 models are likely due to the PBL schemes.

IMPLICATIONS

An accurate depiction of the diurnal evolution of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) is necessary for realistic air quality simulations, and for formulating effective policy. The meteorological model used to support the southeast Texas 03 attainment demonstration made predictions of the PBL that were consistently less than those found in observations. The use of the Asymmetric Convective Model, version 2 (ACM2), predicted taller PBL heights and improved model predictions. A lower predicted PBL height in an air quality model would increase precursor concentrations and change the chemical production of O3 and possibly the response to control strategies.

Impact of parameterization of physical processes on simulation of track and intensity of tropical cyclone Nargis (2008) with WRF-NMM model

The present study is carried out to investigate the performance of different cumulus convection, planetary boundary layer, land surface processes, and microphysics parameterization schemes in the simulation of a very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS) Nargis (2008), developed in the central Bay of Bengal on 27 April 2008. For this purpose, the nonhydrostatic mesoscale model (NMM) dynamic core of weather research and forecasting (WRF) system is used. Model-simulated track positions and intensity in terms of minimum central mean sea level pressure (MSLP), maximum surface wind (10 m), and precipitation are verified with observations as provided by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM). The estimated optimum combination is reinvestigated with six different initial conditions of the same case to have better conclusion on the performance of WRF-NMM. A few more diagnostic fields like vertical velocity, vorticity, and heat fluxes are also evaluated. The results indicate that cumulus convection play an important role in the movement of the cyclone, and PBL has a crucial role in the intensification of the storm. The combination of Simplified Arakawa Schubert (SAS) convection, Yonsei University (YSU) PBL, NMM land surface, and Ferrier microphysics parameterization schemes in WRF-NMM give better track and intensity forecast with minimum vector displacement error.

Odour-impact assessment around a landfill site from weather-type classification, complaint inventory and numerical simulation

Gases released from landfill sites into the atmosphere have the potential to cause olfactory nuisances within the surrounding communities. Landfill sites are often located over complex topography for convenience mainly related to waste disposal and environmental masking. Dispersion of odours is strongly conditioned by local atmospheric dynamics. Assessment of odour impacts needs to take into account the variability of local atmospheric dynamics. In this study, we discuss a method to assess odour impacts around a landfill site located over complex terrain in order to provide information to be used subsequently to identify management strategies to reduce olfactory nuisances in the residential neighbourhoods. A weather-type classification is defined in order to identify meteorological conditions under which olfactory nuisances are to be expected. A non-steady state Gaussian model and a full-physics meteorological model are used to predict olfactory nuisances, for both the winter and summer scenarios that lead to the majority of complaints in neighbourhoods surrounding the landfill site. Simulating representative scenarios rather than full years make a high resolution simulation of local atmospheric dynamics in space and time possible. Results underline the key role of local atmospheric dynamics in driving the dispersion of odours. The odour concentration simulated by the full-physics meteorological model is combined with the density of the population in order to calculate an average population exposure for the two scenarios. Results of this study are expected to provide helpful information to develop technical solutions for an effective management of landfill operations, which would reduce odour impacts within the surrounding communities.

Gridded meteorological data as a resource for mechanistic macroecology in coastal environments

Gridded weather data were evaluated as sources of forcing variables for biophysical models of intertidal animal body temperature with model results obtained using local weather station data serving as the baseline of comparison. The objective of the study was to determine which gridded data are sufficient to capture observed patterns of thermal stress. Three coastal sites in western North America were included in this analysis: Boiler Bay, Oregon; Bodega Bay, California; and Pacific Grove, California. The gridded data with the highest spatial resolution, the 32-km North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) and the 38-km Climate Forecasting System Reanalysis (CFSR), predicted daily maximum intertidal animal temperature most similarly to the local weather Station data. Time step size was important for variables that change rapidly throughout the day, such as solar radiation. There were site-based differences in the ability of the model to predict daily maximum intertidal animal temperature, with the gridded data predictions being the closest to local weather station predictions in Boiler Bay, Oregon. In a review of gridded data used as part of ecological studies, there was broad use of the data across subject areas and ecosystems so the recent improvements in the spatial (from 2 degrees to 32 km) and temporal scales (from 6 hours to 1 hour) of gridded data will further add to the applicability within the ecological community particularly for mechanistic studies.