Polygenic Risk, Fitness, and Obesity in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study

Metabolic liability for weight gain in early adulthood

While weight gain is associated with a host of chronic illnesses, efforts in obesity have relied on single "snapshots" of body mass index (BMI) to guide genetic and molecular discovery. Here, we study >2,000 young adults with metabolomics and proteomics to identify a metabolic liability to weight gain in early adulthood. Using longitudinal regression and penalized regression, we identify a metabolic signature for weight liability, associated with a 2.6% (2.0%-3.2%, p = 7.5 × 10-19) gain in BMI over ≈20 years per SD higher score, after comprehensive adjustment. Identified molecules specified mechanisms of weight gain, including hunger and appetite regulation, energy expenditure, gut microbial metabolism, and host interaction with external exposure. Integration of longitudinal and concurrent measures in regression with Mendelian randomization highlights the complexity of metabolic regulation of weight gain, suggesting caution in interpretation of epidemiologic or genetic effect estimates traditionally used in metabolic research.

Human metabolic chambers reveal a coordinated metabolic-physiologic response to nutrition

The emerging field of precision nutrition is based on the notion that inter-individual responses across diets of different calorie-macronutrient content may contribute to inter-individual differences in metabolism, adiposity, and weight gain. Free-living diet studies have been traditionally challenged by difficulties in controlling adherence to prescribed calories and macronutrient content and rarely allow a period of metabolic stability prior to metabolic measures (to minimize influences of weight changes). In this context, key physiologic measures central to precision nutrition responses may be most precisely quantified via whole room indirect calorimetry over 24-h, in which precise control of activity and nutrition can be achieved. In addition, these studies represent unique "N of 1" human crossover metabolic-physiologic experiments during which specific molecular pathways central to nutrient metabolism may be discerned. Here, we quantified 263 circulating metabolites during a ≈40-day inpatient admission in which up to 94 participants underwent seven monitored 24-h nutritional interventions of differing macronutrient composition in a whole-room indirect calorimeter to capture precision metabolic responses. Broadly, we observed heterogenous responses in metabolites across dietary chambers, with the exception of carnitines which tracked with 24-h respiratory quotient. We identified excursions in shared metabolic species (e.g., carnitines, glycerophospholipids, amino acids) that mapped onto gold-standard calorimetric measures of substrate oxidation preference and lipid availability. These findings support a coordinated metabolic-physiologic response to nutrition, highlighting the relevance of these controlled settings to uncover biological pathways of energy utilization during precision nutrition studies.

Meta-Prediction of Coronary Artery Disease Risk

Coronary artery disease (CAD) remains the leading cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide. Recent advances in large-scale genome-wide association studies have highlighted the potential of genetic risk, captured as polygenic risk scores (PRS), in clinical prevention. However, the current clinical utility of PRS models is limited to identifying high-risk populations based on the top percentiles of genetic susceptibility. While some studies have attempted integrative prediction using genetic and non-genetic factors, many of these studies have been cross-sectional and focused solely on risk stratification. Our primary objective in this study was to integrate unmodifiable (age / genetics) and modifiable (clinical / biometric) risk factors into a prospective prediction framework which also produces actionable and personalized risk estimates for the purpose of CAD prevention in a heterogenous adult population. Thus, we present an integrative, omnigenic, meta-prediction framework that effectively captures CAD risk subgroups, primarily distinguished by degree and nature of genetic risk, with distinct risk reduction profiles predicted from standard clinical interventions. Initial model development considered ~ 2,000 predictive features, including demographic data, lifestyle factors, physical measurements, laboratory tests, medication usage, diagnoses, and genetics. To power our meta-prediction approach, we stratified the UK Biobank into two primary cohorts: 1) a prevalent CAD cohort used to train baseline and prospective predictive models for contributing risk factors and diagnoses, and 2) an incident CAD cohort used to train the final CAD incident risk prediction model. The resultant 10-year incident CAD risk model is composed of 35 derived meta-features from models trained on the prevalent risk cohort, most of which are predicted baseline diagnoses with multiple embedded PRSs. This model achieved an AUC of 0.81 and macro-averaged F1-score of 0.65, outperforming standard clinical scores and prior integrative models. We further demonstrate that individualized risk reduction profiles can be derived from this model, with genetic risk mediating the degree of risk reduction achieved by standard clinical interventions.

Polygenic risk scores enhance prediction of body mass index increase in individuals with a first episode of psychosis

BACKGROUND

Individuals with a first episode of psychosis (FEP) show rapid weight gain during the first months of treatment, which is associated with a reduction in general physical health. Although genetics is assumed to be a significant contributor to weight gain, its exact role is unknown.

METHODS

We assembled a population-based FEP cohort of 381 individuals that was split into a Training (n = 224) set and a Validation (n = 157) set to calculate the polygenic risk score (PRS) in a two-step process. In parallel, we obtained reference genome-wide association studies for body mass index (BMI) and schizophrenia (SCZ) to examine the pleiotropic landscape between the two traits. BMI PRSs were added to linear models that included sociodemographic and clinical variables to predict BMI increase (∆BMI) in the Validation set.

RESULTS

The results confirmed considerable shared genetic susceptibility for the two traits involving 449 near-independent genomic loci. The inclusion of BMI PRSs significantly improved the prediction of ∆BMI at 12 months after the onset of antipsychotic treatment by 49.4% compared to a clinical model. In addition, we demonstrated that the PRS containing pleiotropic information between BMI and SCZ predicted ∆BMI better at 3 (12.2%) and 12 months (53.2%).

CONCLUSIONS

We prove for the first time that genetic factors play a key role in determining ∆BMI during the FEP. This finding has important clinical implications for the early identification of individuals most vulnerable to weight gain and highlights the importance of examining genetic pleiotropy in the context of medically important comorbidities for predicting future outcomes.

Dietary metabolic signatures and cardiometabolic risk

AIMS

Observational studies of diet in cardiometabolic-cardiovascular disease (CM-CVD) focus on self-reported consumption of food or dietary pattern, with limited information on individual metabolic responses to dietary intake linked to CM-CVD. Here, machine learning approaches were used to identify individual metabolic patterns related to diet and relation to long-term CM-CVD in early adulthood.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In 2259 White and Black adults (age 32.1 ± 3.6 years, 45% women, 44% Black) in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study, multivariate models were employed to identify metabolite signatures of food group and composite dietary intake across 17 food groups, 2 nutrient groups, and healthy eating index-2015 (HEI2015) diet quality score. A broad array of metabolites associated with diet were uncovered, reflecting food-related components/catabolites (e.g. fish and long-chain unsaturated triacylglycerols), interactions with host features (microbiome), or pathways broadly implicated in CM-CVD (e.g. ceramide/sphingomyelin lipid metabolism). To integrate diet with metabolism, penalized machine learning models were used to define a metabolite signature linked to a putative CM-CVD-adverse diet (e.g. high in red/processed meat, refined grains), which was subsequently associated with long-term diabetes and CVD risk numerically more strongly than HEI2015 in CARDIA [e.g. diabetes: standardized hazard ratio (HR): 1.62, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.32-1.97, P < 0.0001; CVD: HR: 1.55, 95% CI: 1.12-2.14, P = 0.008], with associations replicated for diabetes (P < 0.0001) in the Framingham Heart Study.

CONCLUSION

Metabolic signatures of diet are associated with long-term CM-CVD independent of lifestyle and traditional risk factors. Metabolomics improves precision to identify adverse consequences and pathways of diet-related CM-CVD.

Robust Bioinformatics Approaches Result in the First Polygenic Risk Score for BMI in Greek Adults

Quantifying the role of genetics via construction of polygenic risk scores (PRSs) is deemed a resourceful tool to enable and promote effective obesity prevention strategies. The present paper proposes a novel methodology for PRS extraction and presents the first PRS for body mass index (BMI) in a Greek population. A novel pipeline for PRS derivation was used to analyze genetic data from a unified database of three cohorts of Greek adults. The pipeline spans various steps of the process, from iterative dataset splitting to training and test partitions, calculation of summary statistics and PRS extraction, up to PRS aggregation and stabilization, achieving higher evaluation metrics. Using data from 2185 participants, implementation of the pipeline enabled consecutive repetitions in splitting training and testing samples and resulted in a 343-single nucleotide polymorphism PRS yielding an R² = 0.3241 (beta = 1.011, p-value = 4 × 10^-193) for BMI. PRS-included variants displayed a variety of associations with known traits (i.e., blood cell count, gut microbiome, lifestyle parameters). The proposed methodology led to creation of the first-ever PRS for BMI in Greek adults and aims at promoting a facilitating approach to reliable PRS development and integration in healthcare practice.

Polygenic risk scores for the prediction of cardiometabolic disease

Cardiometabolic diseases contribute more to global morbidity and mortality than any other group of disorders. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs), the weighted summation of individually small-effect genetic variants, represent an advance in our ability to predict the development and complications of cardiometabolic diseases. This article reviews the evidence supporting the use of PRS in seven common cardiometabolic diseases: coronary artery disease (CAD), stroke, hypertension, heart failure and cardiomyopathies, obesity, atrial fibrillation (AF), and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Data suggest that PRS for CAD, AF, and T2DM consistently improves prediction when incorporated into existing clinical risk tools. In other areas such as ischaemic stroke and hypertension, clinical application appears premature but emerging evidence suggests that the study of larger and more diverse populations coupled with more granular phenotyping will propel the translation of PRS into practical clinical prediction tools.

The inflammatory proteome, obesity, and medical weight loss and regain in humans

OBJECTIVE

Weight regain occurs after medical weight loss via mechanisms of post-weight-loss "metabolic adaptation." The relationship of inflammatory proteins with weight loss/regain was studied to determine a role for inflammation in metabolic adaptation.

METHODS

Seventy-four proteins central to inflammation and immune regulation (Olink) were analyzed in plasma from up to 490 participants in a trial of medical weight-loss maintenance. Cross-sectional and longitudinal associations of proteins with weight were measured using linear and mixed effects regression models and t testing, with replication in the Framingham Heart Study.

RESULTS

Broad changes in the inflammatory proteome were observed among the study cohort (60% women, 35% African American) with initial weight loss of ≈8 kg from a median 94 kg at study entry (33/74 proteins; 7 increased; 26 decreased), many of which tracked with weight regain of median ≈2 kg over the next 30 months. Ten proteins were associated with different rates of weight regain, some specifying pathways of chemotaxis and innate immune responses. Several of the observed protein associations were also linked to prevalent obesity in the Framingham Heart Study.

CONCLUSIONS

Broad changes in the inflammatory proteome track with changes in weight and may identify specific pathways that modify patterns of weight regain.

Assessing the Added Value of Vital Signs Extracted from Electronic Health Records in Healthcare Risk Adjustment Models

Purpose

Patient vital signs are related to specific health risks and outcomes but are underutilized in the prediction of health-care utilization and cost. To measure the added value of electronic health record (EHR) extracted Body Mass Index (BMI) and blood pressure (BP) values in improving healthcare risk and utilization predictions.

Patients and Methods

A sample of 12,820 adult outpatients from the Johns Hopkins Health System (JHHS) were identified between 2016 and 2017, having high data quality and recorded values for BMI and BP. We evaluated the added value of BMI and BP in predicting health-care utilization and cost through a retrospective cohort design. BMI, mean arterial pressure (MAP), systolic and diastolic BPs were summarized as annual aggregated values. Concurrent annual BMI and MAP changes were quantified as the difference between maximum and minimum recorded values. Model performance estimates consisted of repeated 10-fold cross validation, compared to base model point estimates for demographic and diagnostic, coded events: (1) patient age and sex, (2) age, sex, and the Charlson weighted index, (3) age, sex and the Johns Hopkins ACG system’s DxPM risk score.

Results

Both categorical BMI and BP were progressively indicative of disease comorbidity, but not uniformly related to health-care utilization or cost. Annual change in BMI and MAP improved predictions for most concurrent year outcomes when compared to base models.

Conclusion

When a healthcare system lacks relevant diagnostic or risk assessment information for a patient, vital signs may be useful for a simple estimation of disease risk, cost and utilization.

Association of Genome-Wide Polygenic Risk Score for Body Mass Index With Cardiometabolic Health From Childhood Through Midlife

BACKGROUND

Genetic information may help to identify individuals in childhood who are at increased risk for cardiometabolic disease.

METHODS

We included 1201 BHS (Bogalusa Heart Study) participants (832 White participants and 369 Black participants) who were followed up to 42.3 years, starting at a mean age of 9.8 years. A validated genome-wide polygenic risk score (PRS) was tested for association with midlife body mass index (BMI), fasting plasma glucose, and systolic blood pressure using multiple linear regression models. Cox proportional hazards models tested associations of the PRS with incident obesity, diabetes, and hypertension. All analyses were conducted according to race and adjusted for baseline age, sex, ancestry, and BMI.

RESULTS

The constructed PRS was significantly and modestly correlated with midlife BMI in both White and Black participants, with correlation coefficients of 0.27 (P=1.94×10-8) and 0.16 (P=5.50×10-3), respectively. In White participants, per SD increase of PRS was associated with an average 1.29 kg/m2 higher BMI (P=4.44×10-9), 2.82 mg/dL higher fasting plasma glucose (P=1.17×10-3), and 1.09 mm Hg higher systolic blood pressure (P=3.57×10-2) at midlife. The PRS also conferred a 26% higher increased risk of obesity (P=3.50×10-6) in White participants. In addition, the variance in midlife BMI explained increased from 0.1973 to 0.2293 when PRS was added to the model including age, sex, principal components, and baseline BMI (P<0.0001). No associations were observed in Black participants.

CONCLUSIONS

Adiposity-related genetic information independently predicted cardiometabolic health in White BHS participants. Null associations observed in Black BHS participants highlight the urgent need for PRS development in multi-ancestry populations.

The Value of Rare Genetic Variation in the Prediction of Common Obesity in European Ancestry Populations

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) aggregate the effects of genetic variants across the genome and are used to predict risk of complex diseases, such as obesity. Current PRSs only include common variants (minor allele frequency (MAF) ≥1%), whereas the contribution of rare variants in PRSs to predict disease remains unknown. Here, we examine whether augmenting the standard common variant PRS (PRS_common) with a rare variant PRS (PRS_rare) improves prediction of obesity. We used genome-wide genotyped and imputed data on 451,145 European-ancestry participants of the UK Biobank, as well as whole exome sequencing (WES) data on 184,385 participants. We performed single variant analyses (for both common and rare variants) and gene-based analyses (for rare variants) for association with BMI (kg/m²), obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m²), and extreme obesity (BMI ≥ 40 kg/m²). We built PRSs_common and PRSs_rare using a range of methods (Clumping+Thresholding [C+T], PRS-CS, lassosum, gene-burden test). We selected the best-performing PRSs and assessed their performance in 36,757 European-ancestry unrelated participants with whole genome sequencing (WGS) data from the Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) program. The best-performing PRS_common explained 10.1% of variation in BMI, and 18.3% and 22.5% of the susceptibility to obesity and extreme obesity, respectively, whereas the best-performing PRS_rare explained 1.49%, and 2.97% and 3.68%, respectively. The PRS_rare was associated with an increased risk of obesity and extreme obesity (OR_obesity = 1.37 per SD_PRS, P_obesity = 1.7x10^-85; OR_{extremeobesity} = 1.55 per SD_PRS, P_{extremeobesity} = 3.8x10^-40), which was attenuated, after adjusting for PRS_common (OR_obesity = 1.08 per SD_PRS, P_obesity = 9.8x10^-6; OR_{extremeobesity}= 1.09 per SD_PRS, P_{extremeobesity} = 0.02). When PRS_rare and PRS_common are combined, the increase in explained variance attributed to PRS_rare was small (incremental Nagelkerke R² = 0.24% for obesity and 0.51% for extreme obesity). Consistently, combining PRS_rare to PRS_common provided little improvement to the prediction of obesity (PRS_rare AUC = 0.591; PRS_common AUC = 0.708; PRS_combined AUC = 0.710). In summary, while rare variants show convincing association with BMI, obesity and extreme obesity, the PRS_rare provides limited improvement over PRS_common in the prediction of obesity risk, based on these large populations.

Associations of maternal blood pressure-raising polygenic risk scores with fetal weight

Maternal blood pressure (BP) is associated with variations in fetal weight, an important determinant of neonatal and adult health. However, the association of BP-raising genetic risk with fetal weight is unknown. We tested the associations of maternal BP-raising polygenic risk scores (PRS) with estimated fetal weights (EFWs) at 13, 20, 27, and 40 weeks of gestation. This study included 622 White, 637 Black, 568 Hispanic, and 238 Asian pregnant women with genotype data from the NICHD Fetal Growth Studies. PRS of systolic (SBP) and diastolic BP (DBP) were calculated for each participant based on summary statistics from a recent genome-wide association study. Linear regression models were used to compare mean EFW differences between the highest versus lowest tertile of PRS, adjusting for maternal age, education, parity, genetic principal components and fetal sex. Hispanics in the highest DBP PRS tertile, compared to those in the lowest, had 8.1 g (95% CI: -15.1, -1.1), 32.4 g (-58.4, -6.4) and 119.4 g (-218.1, -20.7) lower EFW at 20, 27 and 40 weeks, respectively. Similarly, Asians in the highest DBP PRS tertile had 137.2 g (-263.5, -10.8) lower EFW at week 40, and those in the highest tertile of SBP PRS had 3.2 g (-5.8, -0.7), 12.9 g (-23.5, -2.4), and 39.8 g (-76.9, -2.7) lower EFWs at 13, 20, and 27 weeks. The findings showed that pregnant women's genetic susceptibility to high BP contributes to reduced fetal growth, suggesting a potential future clinical application in perinatal health.

The Coronary Artery Risk Development In Young Adults (CARDIA) Study: JACC Focus Seminar 8/8

The CARDIA (Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults) study began in 1985 to 1986 with enrollment of 5,115 Black or White men and women ages 18 to 30 years from 4 US communities. Over 35 years, CARDIA has contributed fundamentally to our understanding of the contemporary epidemiology and life course of cardiovascular health and disease, as well as pulmonary, renal, neurological, and other manifestations of aging. CARDIA has established associations between the neighborhood environment and the evolution of lifestyle behaviors with biological risk factors, subclinical disease, and early clinical events. CARDIA has also identified the nature and major determinants of Black-White differences in the development of cardiovascular risk. CARDIA will continue to be a unique resource for understanding determinants, mechanisms, and outcomes of cardiovascular health and disease across the life course, leveraging ongoing pan-omics work from genomics to metabolomics that will define mechanistic pathways involved in cardiometabolic aging.

Precision medicine in follicular lymphoma: Focus on predictive biomarkers

Current care for patients with follicular lymphoma (FL) offers most of them long-term survival. Improving it further will require careful patient selection. This review focuses on predictive biomarkers (ie, those whose outcome correlations depend on the treatment strategy) in FL, because awareness of what patient subsets benefit most or least from each therapy will help in this task. The first part of this review aims to summarize what biomarkers are predictive in FL, the magnitude of the effect and the quality of the evidence. We find predictive biomarkers in the setting of (a) indication of active treatment, (b) front-line induction (use of anthracyline-based regimens, CHOP vs bendamustine, addition of rituximab), (c) post-(front-line)induction (rituximab maintenance, radioimmunotherapy), and (d) relapse (hematopoietic stem cell transplant) and targeted agents. The second part of this review discusses the challenges of precision medicine in FL, including (a) cost, (b) clinical relevance considerations, and (c) difficulties over the broad implementation of biomarkers. We then provide our view on what biomarkers may become used in the next few years. We conclude by underscoring the importance of assessing the potential predictiveness of available biomarkers to improve patient care but also that there is a long road ahead before reaching their broad implementation due to remaining scientific, technological, and economic hurdles.