Evidence against genetic anticipation in familial colorectal cancer

Genetic anticipation in Swedish Lynch syndrome families

Among hereditary colorectal cancer predisposing syndromes, Lynch syndrome (LS) caused by mutations in DNA mismatch repair genes MLH1, MSH2, MSH6 or PMS2 is the most common. Patients with LS have an increased risk of early onset colon and endometrial cancer, but also other tumors that generally have an earlier onset compared to the general population. However, age at first primary cancer varies within families and genetic anticipation, i.e. decreasing age at onset in successive generations, has been suggested in LS. Anticipation is a well-known phenomenon in e.g neurodegenerative diseases and several reports have studied anticipation in heritable cancer. The purpose of this study is to determine whether anticipation can be shown in a nationwide cohort of Swedish LS families referred to the regional departments of clinical genetics in Lund, Stockholm, Linköping, Uppsala and Umeå between the years 1990–2013. We analyzed a homogenous group of mutation carriers, utilizing information from both affected and non-affected family members. In total, 239 families with a mismatch repair gene mutation (96 MLH1 families, 90 MSH2 families including one family with an EPCAM–MSH2 deletion, 39 MSH6 families, 12 PMS2 families, and 2 MLH1+PMS2 families) comprising 1028 at-risk carriers were identified among the Swedish LS families, of which 1003 mutation carriers had available follow-up information and could be included in the study. Using a normal random effects model (NREM) we estimate a 2.1 year decrease in age of diagnosis per generation. An alternative analysis using a mixed-effects Cox proportional hazards model (COX-R) estimates a hazard ratio of exp(0.171), or about 1.19, for age of diagnosis between consecutive generations. LS-associated gene-specific anticipation effects are evident for MSH2 (2.6 years/generation for NREM and hazard ratio of 1.33 for COX-R) and PMS2 (7.3 years/generation and hazard ratio of 1.86). The estimated anticipation effects for MLH1 and MSH6 are smaller.

Genetic anticipation is a phenomenon where symptoms of a hereditary disease appear at an earlier age and/or are more severe in successive generations. In genetic disorders such as Fragile X syndrome, Myotonic dystrophy type 1 and Huntington disease, anticipation is caused by the expansion of unstable trinucleotide repeats during meiosis. Anticipation is also reported to occur in some hereditary cancers though the underlying mechanism behind this observation is unknown. Several studies have investigated anticipation in Lynch syndrome, the most common hereditary colorectal cancer syndrome, yet there is a debate concerning whether anticipation occurs and what underlying mechanism there is. The objective of this project is to study if anticipation is part of the clinical picture in Swedish families with LS, with the long term goal to enable better prediction of age at onset in family members. Our results suggest that anticipation occurs in families with mutation in MSH2 and PMS2, while the evidence is equivocal for MLH1 and MSH6.

No evidence of genetic anticipation in a large family with Lynch syndrome

Lynch syndrome is the commonest inherited cause of colorectal cancer (CRC). Genetic anticipation occurs when the age of onset of a disorder decreases in successive generations. It is controversial whether this occurs in Lynch syndrome. Previous studies have included heterogenous groups of subjects from multiple families, including subjects with a clinical diagnosis (based on family history) as well as those with proven germline mismatch repair gene mutations. The purpose of this study was to determine whether genetic anticipation occurs in mismatch repair gene carriers from a single Lynch syndrome family. This study includes members of a single family known to carry an MLH1 gene mutation who are proven germline mutation carriers or obligate carriers (based on their offspring's mutation status). Evidence of genetic anticipation (determined by age of onset of first CRC) was sought in two ways: Firstly, subjects were grouped as parent-child pairs and individuals were compared with their own offspring; secondly they were grouped by generation within the family tree. The Kaplan-Meier technique was used to adjust for variable follow up times. The family tree consisted of 714 subjects. Ninety-two subjects over five generations were included in the study. There was no evidence of genetic anticipation over the generations. (P = 0.37). Similarly, in the 75 parent-child pairs identified, age of onset of CRC was similar for parents and children (P = 0.51). We could not identify any evidence of genetic anticipation in mutation carriers from a single family with Lynch syndrome.

Potential genetic anticipation in hereditary leiomyomatosis-renal cell cancer (HLRCC)

Hereditary leiomyomatosis-renal cell cancer (HLRCC) is an autosomal dominant disorder characterised by cutaneous leiomyomas, symptomatic uterine leiomyomas and aggressive type II papillary renal cell carcinoma. It is caused by heterozygous mutations in the fumarate hydratase (FH) gene on chromosome 1q43. We present evidence of genetic anticipation in HLRCC syndrome. A comprehensive literature review was performed to determine the potential for genetic anticipation in HLRCC syndrome. The normal random effects model was used to evaluate for genetic anticipation to ensure reduction in bias. A total of 11 FH kindreds with available multi-generational data were identified for analysis. The mean difference in age at diagnosis of RCC between the first and second generation was -18.6 years (95 % CI -26.6 to -10.6, p < 0.001). The mean difference in age at diagnosis of RCC between the first and third generation was -36.2 years (95 % CI -47.0 to -25.4, p < 0.001). No evidence of anticipation for uterine leiomyomas was observed (p = 0.349). We report preliminary evidence of genetic anticipation of RCC in HLRCC syndrome. Additional clinical validation is important to confirm this observation, which may have practical implications on counseling and timing of surveillance initiation. Exploration of the underlying mechanisms of anticipation in HLRCC would be of considerable biological interest.

Fertility and apparent genetic anticipation in Lynch syndrome

Genetic anticipation is the phenomenon in which age of onset of an inherited disorder decreases in successive generations. Inconsistent evidence suggests that this occurs in Lynch syndrome. A possible cause for apparent anticipation is fecundity bias, which occurs if the disease adversely affects fertility. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of age of diagnosis of colorectal cancer (CRC) on lifetime fertility in Lynch syndrome, and whether this can falsely create the appearance of genetic anticipation. A computer model simulated age of diagnosis of CRC in hypothetical Lynch syndrome carriers and their offspring. The model assumed similar age distribution of CRC across generations (i.e. that there was no true anticipation). Age distribution of CRC diagnosis, and lifetime fertility rates (grouped by age of diagnosis of CRC) were determined from the Australasian Colorectal Cancer Family Registry (ACCFR). Apparent anticipation was calculated by comparing ages of diagnosis of CRC in affected parent-child pairs. A total of 1,088 patients with CRC were identified from the ACCFR. Total lifetime (cohort) fertility was related to age of diagnosis of CRC (correlation coefficient 0.13, P = 0.0001). In the simulation, apparent anticipation was 1.8 ± 0.54 years (P = 0.0044). Observed apparent anticipation in the ACCFR cohort was 4.8 ± 1.73 years (P = 0.0064). There was no difference in apparent anticipation between the simulate d and observed parent-child pairs (P = 0.89). The appearance of genetic anticipation in Lynch syndrome can be falsely created due to changes in fertility.

Anticipation in lynch syndrome: where we are where we go

Lynch syndrome (LS) is the most common form of inherited predisposition to develop cancer mainly in the colon and endometrium but also in other organ sites. Germline mutations in DNA mismatch repair (MMR) gene cause the transmission of the syndrome in an autosomal dominant manner. The management of LS patients is complicated by the large variation in age at cancer diagnosis which requires these patients to be enrolled in surveillance protocol starting as early as in their second decade of life. Several environmental and genetic factors have been proposed to explain this phenotypic heterogeneity, but the molecular mechanisms remain unknown. Although the presence of genetic anticipation in Lynch syndrome has been suspected since 15 years, only recently the phenomenon has been increasingly reported to be present in different cancer genetic syndromes including LS. While the biological basis of earlier cancer onset in successive generations remains poorly known, recent findings point to telomere dynamics as a mechanism significantly contributing to genetic anticipation in Lynch syndrome and in other familial cancers. In this review, we summarize the clinical and molecular features of Lynch syndrome, with a particular focus on the latest studies that have investigated the molecular mechanisms of genetic anticipation.

Deficiency in DNA mismatch repair increases the rate of telomere shortening in normal human cells

DNA mismatch repair (MMR) is essential for genome stability and inheritance of a mutated MMR gene, most frequently MSH2 or MLH1, results in cancer predisposition known as Lynch syndrome or hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer (HNPCC). Tumors that arise through MMR deficiency show instability at simple tandem repeat loci (STRs) throughout the genome, known as microsatellite instability (MSI). The STR instability is dominated by errors that accumulate during replication in the absence of effective MMR. In this study we show that there is a high level of instability within telomeric DNA with a tendency toward deletions in tumor-derived MMR defective cell lines. We downregulated MSH2 expression in a normal fibroblast cell line and isolated four clones, with differing levels of MSH2 depletion. The telomere-shortening rate was measured at the Xp/Yp, 12q, and 17p telomeres in the MSH2 depleted and three control clones. Interestingly the mean telomere-shortening rate in the clones with MSH2 depletion was significantly greater than in the control clones. This is the first demonstration that MSH2 deficiency alone can lead to accelerated telomere shortening in normal human cells.

Bayesian modeling for genetic anticipation in presence of mutational heterogeneity: a case study in Lynch syndrome

Genetic anticipation, described by earlier age of onset (AOO) and more aggressive symptoms in successive generations, is a phenomenon noted in certain hereditary diseases. Its extent may vary between families and/or between mutation subtypes known to be associated with the disease phenotype. In this article, we posit a Bayesian approach to infer genetic anticipation under flexible random effects models for censored data that capture the effect of successive generations on AOO. Primary interest lies in the random effects. Misspecifying the distribution of random effects may result in incorrect inferential conclusions. We compare the fit of four-candidate random effects distributions via Bayesian model fit diagnostics. A related statistical issue here is isolating the confounding effect of changes in secular trends, screening, and medical practices that may affect time to disease detection across birth cohorts. Using historic cancer registry data, we borrow from relative survival analysis methods to adjust for changes in age-specific incidence across birth cohorts. Our motivating case study comes from a Danish cancer register of 124 families with mutations in mismatch repair (MMR) genes known to cause hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer, also called Lynch syndrome (LS). We find evidence for a decrease in AOO between generations in this article. Our model predicts family-level anticipation effects that are potentially useful in genetic counseling clinics for high-risk families.

Dependence of colorectal cancer risk on the parent-of-origin of mutations in DNA mismatch repair genes

Genetic diseases associated with dynamic mutations in microsatellite DNA often display parent-of-origin effects (POEs) in which the risk of disease depends on the sex of the parent from whom the disease allele was inherited. Carriers of germline mutations in mismatch repair (MMR) genes have high risks of colorectal carcinoma (CRC). We investigated whether these risks depend on the parent-of-origin of the mutation. We studied 422 subjects, including 89 MMR gene mutation carriers, from 17 population-based families who were each recruited via a CRC case diagnosed before age 45 years and found to carry a MMR gene mutation. The POE hazard ratio (HR(POE)), defined to be the CRC incidence for carriers with maternally derived mutations divided by the corresponding paternal incidence, was estimated using a novel application of modified segregation analysis. HR(POE) (95% confidence interval) was estimated to be 3.2 (1.1-9.8) for males (P = 0.03) and 0.8 (0.2-2.8) for females (P = 0.5) and the corresponding cumulative risks to age 80 years were 88% (54%-100%) for male carriers with maternally derived mutations and 38-48% for all other carriers. If confirmed by larger studies, these results will have important implications for the etiology of CRC and for the clinical management of MMR gene mutation carriers.

A review of statistical methods for testing genetic anticipation: looking for an answer in Lynch syndrome

Anticipation, manifested through decreasing age of onset or increased severity in successive generations, has been noted in several genetic diseases. Statistical methods for genetic anticipation range from a simple use of the paired t-test for age of onset restricted to affected parent-child pairs to a recently proposed random effects model which includes extended pedigree data and unaffected family members [Larsen et al., 2009]. A naive use of the paired t-test is biased for the simple reason that age of onset has to be less than the age at ascertainment (interview) for both affected parent and child, and this right truncation effect is more pronounced in children than in parents. In this study, we first review different statistical methods for testing genetic anticipation in affected parent-child pairs that address the issue of bias due to right truncation. Using affected parent-child pair data, we compare the paired t-test with the parametric conditional maximum likelihood approach of Huang and Vieland [1997] and the nonparametric approach of Rabinowitz and Yang [1999] in terms of Type I error and power under various simulation settings and departures from the modeling assumptions. We especially investigate the issue of multiplex ascertainment and its effect on the different methods. We then focus on exploring genetic anticipation in Lynch syndrome and analyze new data on the age of onset in affected parent-child pairs from families seen at the University of Michigan Cancer Genetics clinic with a mutation in one of the three main mismatch repair (MMR) genes. In contrast to the clinic-based population, we re-analyze data on a population-based Lynch syndrome cohort, derived from the Danish HNPCC-register. Both datasets indicate evidence of genetic anticipation in Lynch syndrome. We then expand our review to incorporate recently proposed statistical methods that consider family instead of affected pairs as the sampling unit. These prospective censored regression models offer additional flexibility to incorporate unaffected family members, familial correlation and other covariates into the analysis. An expanded dataset from the Danish HNPCC-register is analyzed by this alternative set of methods.

Parent of origin effects on age at colorectal cancer diagnosis

Genomic imprinting refers to a parent-of-origin specific effect on gene expression. At least 1% of genes in the human genome are modulated in this manner. We sought evidence for genomic imprinting in colorectal cancer by studying the ages at diagnosis in the offspring of 2,061 parent-child pairs in which both parent and child were affected by nonsyndromic colorectal cancer. Families were ascertained through the colon Cancer Family Registry [http://epi.grants.cancer.gov/CFR/] from both population-based and clinic-based sources. We found that the affected offspring of affected fathers were on average younger than offspring of affected mothers (55.8 vs. 53.7 years; p = 0.0003), but when divided into sons and daughters, this difference was driven entirely by younger age at diagnosis in daughters of affected fathers compared to sons (52.3 years vs. 55.1 years; p = 0.0004). A younger age at diagnosis in affected daughters of affected fathers was also observable in various subsets including families that met Amsterdam II Criteria, families that did not meet Amsterdam Criteria, and in families with documented normal DNA mismatch repair in tumors. Imprinting effects are not expected to be affected by the sex of the offspring. Possible explanations for these unexpected findings include: (i) an imprinted gene on the pseudoautosomal regions of the X chromosome; (ii) an imprinted autosomal gene that affects a sex-specific pathway; or (iii) an X-linked gene unmasked because of colonic tissue-specific preferential inactivation of the maternal X chromosome.

An effect from anticipation also in hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer families without identified mutations

Optimal prevention of hereditary cancer is central and requires initiation of surveillance programmes and/or prophylactic measures at a safe age. Anticipation, expressed as an earlier age at onset in successive generations, has been demonstrated in hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer (HNPCC). We specifically addressed anticipation in phenotypic HNPCC families without disease-predisposing mismatch repair (MMR) defects since risk estimates and age at onset are particularly difficult to determine in this cohort. The national Danish HNPCC register was used to identify families who fulfilled the Amsterdam criteria for HNPCC and showed normal MMR function and/or lack of disease-predisposing MMR gene mutation. In total, 319 cancers from 212 parent-child pairs in 99 families were identified. A paired t-test and a bivariate statistical model were used to assess anticipation. Both methods demonstrated an effect from anticipation with cancer diagnosed mean 11.4 years (t-test, p<0.0001) and mean 5.9 (bivariate model, p=0.02) years earlier in children than in parents. This observation suggests that anticipation may apply also to families without identified mutations and serves as a reminder to initiate surveillance programmes at young age also in HNPCC families with undefined genetic causes.

Role for genetic anticipation in Lynch syndrome

PURPOSE

Anticipation (ie, an earlier age at onset in successive generations) is linked to repeat expansion in neurodegenerative syndromes, whereas its role in hereditary cancer is unclear. We assessed anticipation in Lynch syndrome (hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer [HNPCC]), in which DNA mismatch repair (MMR) defects cause early and accelerated tumor development with a broad tumor spectrum.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In the population-based Danish HNPCC registry, 407 MMR gene mutation carriers who had developed cancer associated with Lynch syndrome, were identified. These individuals formed 290 parent-child pairs in which age at the first cancer diagnosis was assessed. A paired t-test and a specifically developed bivariate model were used to assess a possible role of anticipation.

RESULTS

Both methods revealed anticipation with children developing cancer mean 9.8 years (P < .001) earlier than parents using the paired t-test and 5.5 years (P < .001) earlier using the bivariate model. Birth cohort effects were excluded since anticipation with 7.2 years earlier age at onset was identified also in the oldest cohort, in which the children were observed until they were older than 80 years. The effect remained when cancers diagnosed at surveillance were excluded, applied to maternal as well as paternal inheritance, and was independent of the MMR gene mutated.

CONCLUSION

The effect from anticipation demonstrated in this large, population-based Lynch syndrome cohort underscores the need to initiate surveillance programs at young age. It should also stimulate research into the genetic mechanisms that determine age at onset and whether the genetic instability that characterizes Lynch syndrome can be linked to anticipation.

Review article: The Lynch syndrome (hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer)

BACKGROUND

The most common inherited colorectal cancer syndrome is the Lynch syndrome (HNPCC) which is characterized by the development of colorectal, endometrial, and other cancers and the presence of microsatellite instability (MSI) in tumours. The syndrome is due to a mutation in one of the mismatch repair (MMR) genes: MSH2, MLH1, MSH6 and PMS2.

AIMS

To evaluate the clinical features of the Lynch syndrome and to assess the tools that are available for the identification of families with this syndrome.

METHODS

A systematic literature search using PubMed and reference lists of retrieved articles was performed.

RESULTS

The review provides an update of the clinical phenotype of the Lynch syndrome. Until recently, the Amsterdam criteria were the most important tool for the identification of Lynch syndrome. Nowadays, the Bethesda guidelines are more widely used. These guidelines describe all clinical conditions in which a search for MSI indicated. Both MSI-analysis as well as immunohistochemical analysis of the MMR-proteins are appropriate to identify patients with a high probability of carrying a MMR-gene mutation.

CONCLUSION

All specialists that are involved in the treatment of cancer patients should know the Bethesda criteria in order to identify all families suspected of the Lynch syndrome.

Germline novel MSH2 deletions and a founder MSH2 deletion associated with anticipation effects in HNPCC

Hereditary non-polyposis colorectal cancer (HNPCC) is caused by inactivating mutations of DNA mismatch repair genes. Large genomic rearrangements in these genes have been increasingly recognized as important causes of HNPCC. Using multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification, we identified three MSH2 deletions in Italian patients with HNPCC (proband A: exons 1-3, proband M: exon 8, and proband C: exons 1-6). Deletion breakpoint sequencing allowed us to develop rapid polymerase chain reaction-based mutation screening, which confirmed the presence of the deletions in affected and asymptomatic individuals of families A, C, and M. While the exon 8 and exon 1-3 deletions appear to be novel, the MSH2 1-6 deletion found in family C is identical to the one recently documented in two branches of another unrelated Italian family (family V+Va). Haplotype analysis showed that the kindreds C and V+Va (both from northeastern Italy, both displaying clinical features of the Muir-Torre syndrome) shared a seven-locus haplotype, indicating that the MSH2 1-6 deletion is probably a founder mutation. Families A, C, M, and V+Va all showed progressively earlier cancer-onset ages in successive generations. Analysis of 23 affected parent-child pairs in the four kindreds showed median anticipation of 12 years in offsprings' onset of cancer (p = 0.0001). No birth cohort effect was found. This is the first significant evidence of anticipation effects in HNPCC families carrying MSH2 deletions.

The interval between cancer diagnosis among mothers and offspring in a population-based cohort

BACKGROUND

Familial cancers may be due to shared genes or environment, or chance aggregation. We explored the possibility that ascertainment bias influences cancer detection in families, bearing upon the time interval between diagnosis of affected mothers and offspring.

METHODS

The Jerusalem Perinatal Study (JPS) comprises all mothers (n = 39,734) from Western Jerusalem who gave birth 1964 -1976 and their offspring (n = 88,829). After linking identification numbers with Israel's Cancer Registry we measured the absolute time interval between initial cancer diagnoses in affected mother-offspring pairs. We tested the probability of obtaining intervals as short as those observed by chance alone, using a permutation test on the median interval.

RESULTS

By June 2003 cancer had developed in 105 mother-offspring pairs within the cohort. Common sites among mothers were breast (47%), colorectal (9%), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) (8%) and cervix (7%), while for offspring in affected pairs common cancers were leukemia (12.4%), thyroid (13.3%), NHL (10.5%), breast (10.5%) and melanoma (7.6%). The median interval between diagnoses was 5.9 years, but for 33% of affected pairs the interval was < or =3 years. The probability of this occurring by chance alone was 0.03. This held true whether the offspring's or mother's diagnosis was first (P < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

In a population-based cohort followed for three decades, the absolute interval between the diagnosis of cancer in mothers and their offspring is shorter than expected by chance. Explanations include shared environmental exposures or the possibility that cancer ascertainment in one pair member affects health behaviors in the other resulting in early diagnosis. The latter may bias the estimation of anticipation and survival in familial cancers.

Clinical description of the Lynch syndrome [hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer (HNPCC)]

The Lynch syndrome [Hereditary Nonpolyposis Colorectal Cancer (HNPCC)] is a dominantly inherited syndrome characterized by the development of a variety of cancers including cancer of colorectum, endometrium, and less frequently, cancer of the small bowel, stomach, urinary tract, ovaries, and brain. The syndrome is due to a mutation in one of the DNA-mismatch repair (MMR) genes. The main features of the syndrome are an early age of onset and the occurrence of multiple tumors. Knowledge of the specific features of the syndrome is crucial for the identification of the Lynch syndrome. In previous years, the Amsterdam criteria were used for recognition of the syndrome. Since we know that the Lynch syndrome is caused by an MMR defect and that the hallmark of the syndrome is microsatellite instability (MSI), more attention should be given to the so-called Bethesda guidelines. These guidelines describe practically all clinical conditions in which there is suspicion of the Lynch syndrome and in which a search for MSI is indicated.

Decreasing age at prostate cancer diagnosis over successive generations in prostate cancer families

BACKGROUND

The decline in age at prostate cancer diagnosis over the past decade is partially attributable to prostate specific antigen (PSA) screening. We examined age at diagnosis over successive generations within prostate cancer families.

METHODS

Families with at least two affected men were selected from the University of Michigan Prostate Cancer Genetics Project. The 1,345 individuals from 489 families were grouped into three generations.

RESULTS

Risk of prostate cancer diagnosis at a given age was estimated to increase 1.31 (95% CI: 1.13-1.51) times from one generation to the next. Among men diagnosed prior to the PSA era, inferences were similar (hazard ratio = 1.28, 95% CI: 0.97-1.68). No maternal versus paternal disease transmission effect was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Age at prostate cancer diagnosis was observed to decrease over successive generations in families from an ongoing familial prostate cancer study. This finding, if confirmed, may have important implications for familial prostate cancer risk assessment.

Evidence for genetic anticipation in hereditary non-polyposis colorectal cancer

Hereditary non-polyposis colorectal cancer (HNPCC) is an autosomal, dominantly inherited, colorectal cancer (CRC) predisposition syndrome caused by germline mutations in DNA mismatch repair (MMR) genes, predominantly MLH1 and MSH2. Thus far, only limited data exist on the occurrence of genetic anticipation in HNPCC, i.e. the earlier age at diagnosis of CRC in successive generations. Performing nonparametric distribution-free statistical analyses, we investigated 55 parent-child pairs who had been diagnosed with CRC and who came from 21 Swiss HNPCC families with characterised MMR germline mutation (15 in MLH1 and 6 in MSH2). The overall median age at diagnosis was 43 years, with an interquartile range (IQR) of 14 and incidence ages ranging from 18 to 62 years. Descendants of HNPCC patients (median age at diagnosis 39 years, IQR=12) were found to be diagnosed with CRC significantly earlier than their parents (47 years, IQR=10), with the median of the paired age difference amounting to 8 years (IQR=15; P<0.0001). Birth cohort effects could be excluded, since the same, statistically significant, age difference was also observed in the oldest offspring birth cohort (birth year <1916; P=0.01). Genetic anticipation appeared to be more pronounced when the disease allele was transmitted through the father than through the mother (median age difference 11 vs. 4 years, respectively; both P<0.01). If confirmed in larger, ideally prospective studies, these results may have important implications for genetic counselling and clinical management of HNPCC families.

Assessing changes in ages at onset over successive generation: an application to breast cancer

Decreased age at onset in successive generations has been observed for a number of diseases. Two nonparametric matched and unmatched test statistics are proposed, taking into account not only current age or age at death for unaffected individuals and age at disease onset for affected individuals, but also possible correlations among family members. Both are asymptotically normal with readily estimated variances from the data. A simulation study is conducted to compare the proposed tests with the commonly used paired t-test and log-rank test. It has been shown that the proposed test statistics yield valid conclusions in assessing genetic anticipation under all situations considered. However, the paired t-test is valid only when the censoring distributions are comparable between two generations, whereas the log-rank test is valid when the correlation among family members is weak. As expected, the matched test is most powerful when the data are heterogeneous, and the unmatched and the log-rank tests are most powerful when the data are homogeneous and the correlation is weak. Lastly, a population-based family study of breast cancer conducted at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center is used for illustration of the proposed and the log-rank tests. The preliminary analysis suggests that there appears a decreased age at onset over the successive generations in breast cancer.