Screening for lung cancer. The Mayo Lung Project revisited

Lung cancers and pulmonary nodules detected by computed tomography scan: a population-level analysis of screening cohorts

Background

An increasing number and proportion of younger lung cancer patients have been observed worldwide, raising concerns on the optimal age to begin screening. This study aimed to investigate the association between age and findings in initial CT scans.

Methods

We searched for low-dose CT screening cohorts from electronic databases. Single-arm syntheses weighted by sample size were performed to calculate the detection rates of pulmonary nodules, lung cancers (all stages and stage I), and the proportion of stage I diseases in lung cancers. In addition, we included patients who underwent chest CT in our center as a supplementary cohort. The correlation between the detection rates and age was evaluated by the Pearson Correlation Coefficient.

Results

A total of 37 studies involving 163,442 participants were included. We found the detection rates of pulmonary nodules and lung cancers increased with age. However, the proportion of stage I diseases in lung cancers declined with increased starting age and was significantly higher in the 40-year group than in other groups (40 vs. 45, 50, 55, P<0.001). In addition, the ratio of early-stage lung cancer to the number of nodules declined with age. Similarly, in our center, the detection rates of nodules (R²=0.86, P≤0.001), all lung cancer (R²=0.99, P≤0.001) and stage I diseases (R²=0.87, P=0.001) increased with age, while the proportion of stage I diseases consistently declined with age (R²=0.97, P≤0.001).

Conclusions

Starting lung cancer screening at an earlier age is associated with a higher probability of identifying a curable disease, urging future research to determine the optimal starting age.

Current lung cancer screening guidelines may miss high-risk population: a real-world study

BACKGROUND

Despite much research published on lung cancer screening, China has had no large-scale study on the missed diagnosis of lung cancer in a health examination population. We therefore did a real-world study using the current lung cancer screening guidelines to a health examination population in China to determine the proportion of lung cancer cases that have been missed.

METHODS

A real-world cohort study of screening, with the use of low-dose computed tomography, was conducted among people who took yearly health checkup in health management center of West China Hospital between 2006 and 2017. We respectively used current guidelines including lung cancer screening guidelines of the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) and expert consensus on low dose spiral CT lung cancer screening in China.

RESULTS

In a total of 15,996 participants with health examination who completed the baseline screening, 6779 (42.4%) subjects had at least one positive finding, and 142 (2.1%) cases of lung cancer were screened positive. The false positive rate was 97.9%. Of 142 lung cancer cases detected in our study, only 9.2% met the lung cancer screening guidelines proposed by the USPSTF, and 24.4% met that of China. The rates of missed diagnosis were as high as 90.8 and 75.6% respectively. In addition, we did an in-depth analysis by gender. We found that among male patients with lung cancer, the proportion of smokers was 75%, and the proportion of young people under 50 was 23.2%. Among female patients with lung cancer, the proportion of smokers was only 5.8%, and the proportion of young people under 50 was up to 33.3%.

CONCLUSIONS

The rate of missed diagnosis was as high as 90.8% applying the current lung cancer screening guidelines to the health examination population in China. Further study to determine screening guidelines for targeted populations, is warranted.

The Regimen of Computed Tomography Screening for Lung Cancer: Lessons Learned Over 25 Years From the International Early Lung Cancer Action Program

We learned many unanticipated and valuable lessons since we started planning our study of low-dose computed tomography (CT) screening for lung cancer in 1991. The publication of the baseline results of the Early Lung Cancer Action Project (ELCAP) in Lancet 1999 showed that CT screening could identify a high proportion of early, curable lung cancers. This stimulated large national screening studies to be quickly started. The ELCAP design, which provided evidence about screening in the context of a clinical program, was able to rapidly expand to a 12-institution study in New York State (NY-ELCAP) and to many international institutions (International-ELCAP), ultimately working with 82 institutions, all using the common I-ELCAP protocol. This expansion was possible because the investigators had developed the ELCAP Management System for screening, capturing data and CT images, and providing for quality assurance. This advanced registry and its rapid accumulation of data and images allowed continual assessment and updating of the regimen of screening as advances in knowledge and new technology emerged. For example, in the initial ELCAP study, introduction of helical CT scanners had allowed imaging of the entire lungs in a single breath, but the images were obtained in 10 mm increments resulting in about 30 images per person. Today, images are obtained in submillimeter slice thickness, resulting in around 700 images per person, which are viewed on high-resolution monitors. The regimen provides the imaging acquisition parameters, imaging interpretation, definition of positive result, and the recommendations for further workup, which now include identification of emphysema and coronary artery calcifications. Continual updating is critical to maximize the benefit of screening and to minimize potential harms. Insights were gained about the natural history of lung cancers, identification and management of nodule subtypes, increased understanding of nodule imaging and pathologic features, and measurement variability inherent in CT scanners. The registry also provides the foundation for assessment of new statistical techniques, including artificial intelligence, and integration of effective genomic and blood-based biomarkers, as they are developed.

Lung cancer screening intervals based on cancer risk

OBJECTIVES

As low-dose CT screening is gaining acceptance, focus is on increasing the efficiency of screening. One major consideration is to reduce the total number of annual rounds by increasing the interval between screening rounds. It has been suggested that longer intervals could be used for individuals who are at lower risk of lung cancer. In this study, we explored whether eligible participants in a program of LDCT screening who are at lower risk of lung cancer have less aggressive cancers than those at higher risk.

METHODS

We retrospectively identified 118 participants in I-ELCAP database between 1992-2019 who had been screened using HIPAA-compliant protocols and had solid lung cancers diagnosed on an annual round of screening, 7-18 months after the prior round. Volume doubling time (VDT) for each cancer was calculated. Estimated risk of developing lung cancer was calculated using PLCO_M2012 model. The strength of the relationship between VDT and individual PLCO_M2012 scores was assessed by Pearson(r) and Spearman (ρ) correlation coefficients.

RESULTS

VDTs were significantly different by cell-type (p < 0.0001); median VDT for small cell was 34.0 days, followed by other cell-types (61.8 days), squamous-cell (73.3 days), and adenocarcinoma (135.7 days). The median VDT for the 78 (66.1 %) Stage I lung cancers was significantly longer than the 40 Stage II + lung cancers (101.4 days vs. 45.5 days, p < 0.0001). None of the established lung cancer risk indicators (age, pack-years of smoking, or PLCO_M2012 scores) were significant predictors of VDT or lung cancer stage.

CONCLUSION

No significant relationship was demonstrated between risk of developing lung cancer (measured by risk models, age or smoking history) and lung cancer aggressiveness (measured by VDT, cell-type and Stage). This suggests that there is no evidence for determining intervals between repeat screenings using risk-based characteristics. It does not, however, exclude the possibility that future models may establish such a relationship.

Computed tomography screening for lung cancer

Cigarette smoking is the attributable cause for 90% of lung cancers. To complement preventative strategies, the advent of lung cancer screening programs targeted at prior and active smokers has been explored to reduce the mortality and morbidity of this lethal malignancy. In this article, we discuss the results of major computed tomography-based lung cancer screening trials, cost-effectiveness of screening, guidelines from major societies and future directions of the field.

Long-Term Follow-up Results of the DANTE Trial, a Randomized Study of Lung Cancer Screening with Spiral Computed Tomography

RATIONALE

Screening for lung cancer with low-dose spiral computed tomography (LDCT) has been shown to reduce lung cancer mortality by 20% compared with screening with chest X-ray (CXR) in the National Lung Screening Trial, but uncertainty remains concerning the efficacy of LDCT screening in a community setting.

OBJECTIVES

To explore the effect of LDCT screening on lung cancer mortality compared with no screening. Secondary endpoints included incidence, stage, and resectability rates.

METHODS

Male smokers of 20+ pack-years, aged 60 to 74 years, underwent a baseline CXR and sputum cytology examination and received five screening rounds with LDCT or a yearly clinical review only in a randomized fashion.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

A total of 1,264 subjects were enrolled in the LDCT arm and 1,186 in the control arm. Their median age was 64.0 years (interquartile range, 5), and median smoking exposure was 45.0 pack-years. The median follow-up was 8.35 years. One hundred four patients (8.23%) were diagnosed with lung cancer in the screening arm (66 by CT), 47 of whom (3.71%) had stage I disease; 72 control patients (6.07%) were diagnosed with lung cancer, with 16 (1.35%) being stage I cases. Lung cancer mortality was 543 per 100,000 person-years (95% confidence interval, 413-700) in the LDCT arm versus 544 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI, 410-709) in the control arm (hazard ratio, 0.993; 95% confidence interval, 0.688-1.433).

CONCLUSIONS

Because of its limited statistical power, the results of the DANTE (Detection And screening of early lung cancer with Novel imaging TEchnology) trial do not allow us to make a definitive statement about the efficacy of LDCT screening. However, they underline the importance of obtaining additional data from randomized trials with intervention-free reference arms before the implementation of population screening.

Chest X-ray screening for lung cancer: overdiagnosis, endpoints, and randomized population trials

Publication of the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) generated excitement by concluding that CT screening reduces lung cancer mortality when compared to chest X-ray (CXR) screening. In contrast, CXR screening has long been considered to be ineffective. This is because randomized population trials (RPTs) have failed to demonstrate significant mortality reductions in populations randomized to CXR screening. While these studies demonstrate that CXR screening is associated with significant survival advantages, these advantages have been widely interpreted as spurious, due to the inference that CXR screening leads to substantial lung cancer overdiagnosis. Indeed, the reality of the overdiagnosis hypothesis is the only alternative to the conclusion that CXR screening was effective in these trials and that survival more accurately reflected the benefit of CXR screening than mortality. Mortality comparisons would be biased if randomization fails to create comparison groups with an equal probability of mortality from the target cancer. The objective of this manuscript is to review existing RPTs on CXR screening for lung cancer, and to analyze which endpoint most accurately reflects screening efficacy. We conclude that the evidence supports that CXR screening is superior to no screening, and the magnitude of overdiagnosis is minimal in the context of CXR screening.

Screening for lung cancer

BACKGROUND

This is an updated version of the original review published in The Cochrane Library in 1999 and updated in 2004 and 2010. Population-based screening for lung cancer has not been adopted in the majority of countries. However it is not clear whether sputum examinations, chest radiography or newer methods such as computed tomography (CT) are effective in reducing mortality from lung cancer.

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether screening for lung cancer, using regular sputum examinations, chest radiography or CT scanning of the chest, reduces lung cancer mortality.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched electronic databases: the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (The Cochrane Library 2012, Issue 5), MEDLINE (1966 to 2012), PREMEDLINE and EMBASE (to 2012) and bibliographies. We handsearched the journal Lung Cancer (to 2000) and contacted experts in the field to identify published and unpublished trials.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Controlled trials of screening for lung cancer using sputum examinations, chest radiography or chest CT.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We performed an intention-to-screen analysis. Where there was significant statistical heterogeneity, we reported risk ratios (RRs) using the random-effects model. For other outcomes we used the fixed-effect model.

MAIN RESULTS

We included nine trials in the review (eight randomised controlled studies and one controlled trial) with a total of 453,965 subjects. In one large study that included both smokers and non-smokers comparing annual chest x-ray screening with usual care there was no reduction in lung cancer mortality (RR 0.99, 95% CI 0.91 to 1.07). In a meta-analysis of studies comparing different frequencies of chest x-ray screening, frequent screening with chest x-rays was associated with an 11% relative increase in mortality from lung cancer compared with less frequent screening (RR 1.11, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.23); however several of the trials included in this meta-analysis had potential methodological weaknesses. We observed a non-statistically significant trend to reduced mortality from lung cancer when screening with chest x-ray and sputum cytology was compared with chest x-ray alone (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.74 to 1.03). There was one large methodologically rigorous trial in high-risk smokers and ex-smokers (those aged 55 to 74 years with ≥ 30 pack-years of smoking and who quit ≤ 15 years prior to entry if ex-smokers) comparing annual low-dose CT screening with annual chest x-ray screening; in this study the relative risk of death from lung cancer was significantly reduced in the low-dose CT group (RR 0.80, 95% CI 0.70 to 0.92).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

The current evidence does not support screening for lung cancer with chest radiography or sputum cytology. Annual low-dose CT screening is associated with a reduction in lung cancer mortality in high-risk smokers but further data are required on the cost effectiveness of screening and the relative harms and benefits of screening across a range of different risk groups and settings.

Association of epidermal growth factor receptor and K-Ras mutations with smoking history in non-small cell lung cancer patients

Lung cancer, a major health problem affecting the epithelial lining of the lower respiratory tract, is considered to be one of the deadliest types of cancer in males and females and it is well-known that smoking is the chief cause of lung cancer. In addition to smoking and environmental factors, genetic susceptibility may also contribute to the development of lung cancer. Previous studies have shown that certain non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients harbor gain-of-function mutations in the epidermal growth factor receptor gene (EGFR). Phosphorylated EGFR triggers the activation of intracellular signal transduction pathways, including the RAS-MAPK, PI3K-Akt and STAT pathways. However, K-Ras gene point mutations in codons 12, 13 or 61 cause the inactivation of GTPase activity which results in overstimulation of cellular growth and gives rise to neoplastic development. Our aim was to investigate the presence and association of EGFR and K-Ras mutations in 50 primary NSCLC patients with a smoking history by using real-time PCR and sequencing. EGFR mutations were detected in four patients (8%). Two of these mutations were L858R mutations and the remaining two were deletion mutations spanning between codons 746 and 750. The L858R mutation was significantly associated with smoking status (P=0.003). K-Ras codon 12 and 61 mutations were also observed in four patients. However, no association was observed between K-Ras mutations and the tumor staging, gender, histology and smoking status of the patients.

Delays in the diagnosis of lung cancer

BACKGROUND

Many patients with lung cancer report delays in diagnosing their disease. This may contribute to advanced stage at diagnosis and poor long term survival. This study explores the delays experienced by patients referred to a regional cancer centre with lung cancer.

METHODS

A prospective cohort of patients referred with newly diagnosed lung cancer were surveyed over a 3 month period to assess delays in diagnosis. Patients were asked when they first experienced symptoms, saw their doctor, what tests were done, when they saw a specialist and when they started treatment. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize the different time intervals.

RESULTS

56 of 73 patients consented (RR 77%). However only 52 patients (30M, 22F) were interviewed as 2 died before being interviewed and two could not be contacted. The mean age was 68yrs. Stage distribution was as follows (IB/IIA 10%, stage IIIA 20%, IIIB/IV 70%). Patients waited a median of 21 days (iqr 7-51d) before seeing a doctor and a further 22d (iqr 0-38d) to complete any investigations. The median time from presentation to specialist referral was 27d (iqr 12-49d) and a further 23.5d (iqr 10-56d) to complete investigations. The median wait to start treatment once patients were seen at the cancer centre was 10d (iqr 2-28d). The overall time from development of first symptoms to starting treatment was 138d (iqr 79-175d).

CONCLUSIONS

Lung cancer patients experience substantial delays from development of symptoms to first initiating treatment. There is a need to promote awareness of lung cancer symptoms and develop and evaluate rapid assessment clinics for patients with suspected lung cancers.

Exploring the uncertainties of early detection results: model-based interpretation of mayo lung project

BACKGROUND

The Mayo Lung Project (MLP), a randomized controlled clinical trial of lung cancer screening conducted between 1971 and 1986 among male smokers aged 45 or above, demonstrated an increase in lung cancer survival since the time of diagnosis, but no reduction in lung cancer mortality. Whether this result necessarily indicates a lack of mortality benefit for screening remains controversial. A number of hypotheses have been proposed to explain the observed outcome, including over-diagnosis, screening sensitivity, and population heterogeneity (initial difference in lung cancer risks between the two trial arms). This study is intended to provide model-based testing for some of these important arguments.

METHOD

Using a micro-simulation model, the MISCAN-lung model, we explore the possible influence of screening sensitivity, systematic error, over-diagnosis and population heterogeneity.

RESULTS

Calibrating screening sensitivity, systematic error, or over-diagnosis does not noticeably improve the fit of the model, whereas calibrating population heterogeneity helps the model predict lung cancer incidence better.

CONCLUSIONS

Our conclusion is that the hypothesized imperfection in screening sensitivity, systematic error, and over-diagnosis do not in themselves explain the observed trial results. Model fit improvement achieved by accounting for population heterogeneity suggests a higher risk of cancer incidence in the intervention group as compared with the control group.

"Risk homeostasis"or "teachable moment"? the interaction between smoking behavior and lung cancer screening in the Mayo Lung Project

The chest X-ray lung cancer screening program of Mayo Lung Project (MLP) yielded mixed results of improved lung case survival but no improvement in lung cancer mortality. This paper analyzes the smoking patterns of study participants in order to examine possible behavioral ramifications of periodic lung cancer screening. Using a longitudinal difference-of-difference model, we compared the smoking behavior, in terms of current smoker status among all subjects and the intensity of smoking among those continuing smokers, between those who received periodic lung cancer screening and those who received usual-care. In both arms of this lung cancer screening trial, there was a sizable decline in cigarette smoking one year after participants received baseline prevalence screening. There was no significant difference in current smoker status between the intervention group receiving periodic X-ray screening and the control group receiving usual care. While we detect that the continuing smokers in the intervention group smoked more than their counterparts in the control group, the magnitude of the difference is not sufficient to explain a substantial difference in lung cancer incidence between the two groups. Our study shows that periodic lung screening in MLP did not decrease smoking behavior beyond the observed decline following the initial prevalence screening conducted at baseline for both the intervention and control groups. Our results also indicate, paradoxically, that participants assigned to the intervention group smoked more cigarettes per day on average than those in the control group. Lung cancer screening programs need additional cessation components to sustain the abstinence effect typically observed following initial lung screening.

Screening for lung cancer with low-dose computed tomography: a systematic review and meta-analysis of the baseline findings of randomized controlled trials

OBJECTIVES

Lung cancer is the leading cause of death among all cancers. An estimated 29% of the global population older than 15 years currently smokes tobacco. The presence of a high risk population, relatively asymptomatic nature of the disease in the early phase, and relatively good prognosis when discovered early makes screening for lung cancer an attractive proposition. We performed a systematic review and a meta-analysis of the baseline results of randomized controlled trials so far published, which included more than 14,000 patients. Analysis was used to determine whether data was for or against the screening of lung cancers using low-dose computed tomography (LDCT).

DESIGN

Random effect meta regression model of meta-analysis and systematic review.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review and a meta-analysis of the current literature to determine whether screening for lung cancer in a high-risk population with computed tomography improves outcomes. A search strategy using Medline was employed, studies selected based on preset criteria and application of exclusion criteria, and data collected and analyzed for statistical significance.

RESULTS

Screening for lung cancer using LDCT resulted in a significantly higher number of stage I lung cancers (odds ratio 3.9, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.0-7.4), higher number of total non-small cell lung cancers (odds ratio 5.5, 95% CI 3.1-9.6), and higher total lung cancers (odds ratio 4.1, 95% CI 2.4-7.1). Screening using LDCT also resulted in increased detection of false-positive nodules (odds ratio 3.1, 95% CI 2.6-3.7) and more unnecessary thoracotomies for benign lesions (event rate 3.7 per 1000, 95% CI 3.5-3.8). For every 1000 individuals screened with LDCT for lung cancer, 9 stage I non-small cell lung cancer and 235 false-positive nodules were detected, and 4 thoracotomies for benign lesions were performed.

CONCLUSIONS

The baseline data from six randomized controlled trials offer no compelling data in favor or against the use of LDCT screening for lung cancer. We await the final results of these randomized controlled trials to improve our understanding of the effectiveness of LDCT in the screening for lung cancer and its effect on mortality.

Development of a multiplexed tumor-associated autoantibody-based blood test for the detection of non-small cell lung cancer

PURPOSE

Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) has an overall 5-year survival of <15%; however, the 5-year survival for stage I disease is over 50%. Unfortunately, 75% of NSCLC is diagnosed at an advanced stage not amenable to surgery. A convenient serum assay capable of unambiguously identifying patients with NSCLC may provide an ideal diagnostic measure to complement computed tomography-based screening protocols.

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN

Standard immunoproteomic method was used to assess differences in circulating autoantibodies among lung adenocarcinoma patients relative to cancer-free controls. Candidate autoantibodies identified by these discovery phase studies were translated into Luminex-based "direct-capture" immunobead assays along with 10 autoantigens with previously reported diagnostic value. These assays were then used to evaluate a second patient cohort composed of four discrete populations, including: 117 NSCLC (81 T(1-2)N(0)M(0) and 36 T(1-2)N(1-2)M(0)), 30 chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder (COPD)/asthma, 13 nonmalignant lung nodule, and 31 "normal" controls. Multivariate statistical methods were then used to identify the optimal combination of biomarkers for classifying patient disease status and develop a convenient algorithm for this purpose.

RESULTS

Our immunoproteomic-based biomarker discovery efforts yielded 16 autoantibodies differentially expressed in NSCLC versus control serum. Thirteen of the 25 analytes tested showed statistical significance (Mann-Whitney P < 0.05 and a receiver operator characteristic "area under the curve" over 0.65) when evaluated against a second patient cohort. Multivariate statistical analyses identified a six-biomarker panel with only a 7% misclassification rate.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a six-autoantibody algorithm for detecting cases of NSCLC among several high-risk populations. Population-based validation studies are now required to assign the true value of this tool for identifying early-stage NSCLC.

An up to date look at lung cancer screening

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide. At the time of initial presentation, most patients are at an advance stage of disease and have a poor associated prognosis. Those diagnosed and treated at earlier stages have a significantly better outcome with 5-year survival for stage I disease approaching 75%. Ideally a screening strategy for lung cancer would detect disease at an earlier stage and allow for potential surgical cure. The purpose of this review is to examine past and current evidence as it relates to lung cancer screening.

Modeling excess lung cancer risk among screened arm participants in the Mayo Lung Project

BACKGROUND

The Mayo Lung Project (MLP) was a randomized clinical trial designed to test whether periodic screening by chest x-ray reduced lung cancer (LC) mortality in men who were high-risk smokers. Among MLP participants, there were more deaths from LC in the screening arm both at the trial's end and after long-term follow-up. Overdiagnosis was cited widely as an explanation for the MLP results, whereas a role for excess LC risk attributable to undergoing numerous chest x-ray screenings largely was unexamined. The authors of this report examined the consistency of the MLP data with a modified 2-stage clonal expansion (TSCE) model of excess LC risk.

METHODS

By using a simulation model calibrated to the initial MLP data, the authors examined the expected statistical variance of LC incidence and mortality between the screening and control arms. A Bayesian estimation framework using a modified version of the TSCE model to evaluate the role of excess LC risk attributable to chest x-ray screening was derived and applied to the MLP data.

RESULTS

Simulation experiments indicated that the overall difference in LC deaths and incidence between the study arm and the control arm was unlikely (P = .0424 and P = .0104, respectively) assuming no excess risk of LC. The authors estimated that the 10-year excess LC risk for a man aged 60 years who smoked and who received 10 chest x-ray screenings was 0.574% (P = .0021).

CONCLUSIONS

The excess LC risk observed among screening arm participants was found to be statistically significant with respect to the TSCE model framework in part because of the incorporation of key risk correlates of age and screen frequency into the estimation framework.

Reliable data on 5- and 10-year survival provide accurate estimates of 15-year survival in estrogen receptor-positive early-stage breast cancer

There are few studies of model-based survival projections using early empirical results for estimating long-term survival. Utilizing Early Breast Cancer Trialists' Collaborative Group (EBCTCG) data, a Markov model was generated to compare empirical results with those modeled beyond the empirical result time horizon in estrogen receptor (ER)-positive early-stage breast cancer (ESBC). Modeling 15-year survival based on 5- and 10-year EBCTCG data resulted in an average error estimate in breast cancer mortality of 0.75% [range -0.83 to 2.19%]. Although modeling life expectancy differences ranged from an underestimate of -7.93% to an overestimate of 12.64%, over the span of 15 years this corresponded to a loss of 18 days or a gain of 40 days of life. Reliable early survival data may be used to generate models that accurately estimate 15-year survival in ER-positive ESBC. Whether early survival data can be employed over the lifetime horizon remains to be demonstrated.

Calibration methods used in cancer simulation models and suggested reporting guidelines

Increasingly, computer simulation models are used for economic and policy evaluation in cancer prevention and control. A model's predictions of key outcomes, such as screening effectiveness, depend on the values of unobservable natural history parameters. Calibration is the process of determining the values of unobservable parameters by constraining model output to replicate observed data. Because there are many approaches for model calibration and little consensus on best practices, we surveyed the literature to catalogue the use and reporting of these methods in cancer simulation models. We conducted a MEDLINE search (1980 through 2006) for articles on cancer-screening models and supplemented search results with articles from our personal reference databases. For each article, two authors independently abstracted pre-determined items using a standard form. Data items included cancer site, model type, methods used for determination of unobservable parameter values and description of any calibration protocol. All authors reached consensus on items of disagreement. Reviews and non-cancer models were excluded. Articles describing analytical models, which estimate parameters with statistical approaches (e.g. maximum likelihood) were catalogued separately. Models that included unobservable parameters were analysed and classified by whether calibration methods were reported and if so, the methods used. The review process yielded 154 articles that met our inclusion criteria and, of these, we concluded that 131 may have used calibration methods to determine model parameters. Although the term 'calibration' was not always used, descriptions of calibration or 'model fitting' were found in 50% (n = 66) of the articles, with an additional 16% (n = 21) providing a reference to methods. Calibration target data were identified in nearly all of these articles. Other methodological details, such as the goodness-of-fit metric, were discussed in 54% (n = 47 of 87) of the articles reporting calibration methods, while few details were provided on the algorithms used to search the parameter space. Our review shows that the use of cancer simulation modelling is increasing, although thorough descriptions of calibration procedures are rare in the published literature for these models. Calibration is a key component of model development and is central to the validity and credibility of subsequent analyses and inferences drawn from model predictions. To aid peer-review and facilitate discussion of modelling methods, we propose a standardized Calibration Reporting Checklist for model documentation.

Screening and chemoprevention in lung cancer

Lung cancer is a major health problem due to its incidence and mortality. The risk factors, the existence of a preclinical phase, and the relationship between stage at diagnosis and survival are known. A number of strategies that aim to diagnose lung cancer in its earliest stages, based principally on imaging studies, are therefore being tested. Several drugs aimed at reducing the probability of developing lung cancer in the at-risk population are also under study. At the present time, the results obtained have not been encouraging and we do not have a clear strategy either for early diagnosis or for the use of chemopreventive agents.

CT screening for lung cancer: update 2007

Screening is the pursuit of the early diagnosis of cancer before symptoms occur. The purpose of early diagnosis is to provide early treatment, which potentially prevents death from the cancer. The usefulness of screening depends on how early the cancer can be diagnosed and how many deaths can be prevented by early treatment as compared with later symptom-prompted diagnosis and treatment. The goal of the Early Lung Cancer Action Project investigators was to develop an efficient methodology that would provide an ever-accumulating, continually updated body of evidence for evaluation of emerging new technologies for screening for cancer. This methodology recognizes that screening is a sequential process that starts with the pursuit of the early diagnosis of cancer followed by early treatment. It also recognizes that diagnostic research is fundamentally different from treatment research. To fully understand the current discussions on the evidence for lung cancer screening, key definitions are provided, including the differentiation between the first, baseline round of screening and all subsequent rounds of repeat screening and baseline and repeat cancers and their distribution by cell type. These definitions are critical in analyzing the results of various screening reports as they are not used by all. To provide optimal screening, a regimen for the diagnostic workup must be specified starting with the definition of the initial test, its positive result, and the workup for a positive result leading to a diagnosis of cancer. Assessment of diagnostic performance does not require a control group, but does require confirmation of the diagnosis. For assessment of the effectiveness of early treatment, a comparison group is needed. The comparison group may be formed by randomly assigning people with screen-diagnosed lung cancer to immediate or delayed treatment, as has been done for prostate cancer. This provides a direct assessment of any potential overdiagnosis of the cancer resulting from screening. Alternatively, a quasiexperimental control group can be used consisting of participants diagnosed with the cancer who have refused or delayed their treatment even though they are candidates for it.

Estimation of mean sojourn time for lung cancer by chest X-ray screening with a Bayesian approach

Very few studies, particularly from oriental population, reported the progression of lung cancer from asymptomatic to symptomatic phase. The present study aimed to estimate mean sojourn time (MST) of lung cancer, an average duration period in which tumour can be asymptotically detected by chest X-ray (CXR), taking into account gender, smoking and histological type. Based on institutional cancer registry for lung cancer patients with prior non-diagnostic CXR (n=221), data were collected on demographic features, histology type, survival status, history of smoking, and asymptomatic or symptomatic status in light of chief complaint at diagnosis retrieved from medical records. The MST for the natural history of lung cancer underpinning a three-state Markov model was estimated with a Bayesian approach. The estimated MST for lung cancer was 5.51 months (95% credible interval: 4.04-7.12). Small cell lung carcinoma was even statistically significantly shorter MST than non-small cell lung carcinoma (3.01 (3-3.98) months vs. 6.07 (4.44-8.25) months). In parallel with literatures reporting tumour growth rate related to CXR and computed tomography (CT), the shorter mean sojourn time by using CXR estimated in our study strongly suggests that CT screening may be more effective in early detection of lung cancer in population-based screening.

Lung cancer screening

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide. Most patients present symptomatically when the disease is often at an advanced stage and prognosis is poor. In contrast, outcomes are significantly better in patients diagnosed at earlier stages, with a 5-year survival for stage I approaching 75%. Screening for lung cancer may detect potentially fatal cases earlier in their disease course, at a stage when a curative surgical intervention is feasible. The objective of this review is to examine the current evidence for lung cancer screening and the clinical effectiveness of screening for lung cancer by using computed tomography.

Computer-aided nodule detection on digital chest radiography: validation test on consecutive T1 cases of resectable lung cancer

PURPOSE

To evaluate the usefulness of a commercially available computer-assisted diagnosis (CAD) system on operable T1 cases of lung cancer by use of digital chest radiography equipment.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Fifty consecutive patients underwent surgery for primary lung cancer, and 50 normal cases were selected. All cancer cases were histopathologically confirmed T1 cases. All normal individuals were selected on the basis of chest computed tomography (CT) confirmation and were matched with cancer cases in terms of age and gender distributions. All chest radiographs were obtained with one computed radiography or two flat-panel detector systems. Eight radiologists (four chest radiologists and four residents) participated in observer tests and interpreted soft copy images by using an exclusive display system without and with CAD output. When radiologists diagnosed cases as positives, the locations of lesions were recorded on hard copies. The observers' performance was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic analysis.

RESULTS

The overall detectability of lung cancer cases with CAD system was 74% (37/50), and the false-positive rate was 2.28 (114/50) false positives per case for normal cases. The mean A(z) value increased significantly from 0.896 without CAD output to 0.923 with CAD output (P = 0.018). The main cause of the improvement in performance is attributable to changes from false negatives without CAD to true positives with CAD (19/31, 61%). Moreover, improvement in the location of the tumor was observed in 1.5 cases, on average, for radiology residents.

CONCLUSION

This CAD system for digital chest radiographs is useful in assisting radiologists in the detection of early resectable lung cancer.

Extended lung cancer incidence follow-up in the Mayo Lung Project and overdiagnosis

BACKGROUND

A troubling aspect of cancer screening is the potential for overdiagnosis, i.e., detection of disease that, in the absence of screening, would never have been diagnosed. Overdiagnosis is of particular concern in lung cancer screening because newer screening modalities can identify small nodules of unknown clinical significance. Previously published analyses of data from the Mayo Lung Project, a large randomized controlled trial conducted among 9211 male cigarette smokers in the 1970s and early 1980s indicated that overdiagnosis might exist in lung cancer screening. At the end of follow-up (July 1, 1983), no difference in lung cancer mortality was observed, but an excess of 46 cases in the intervention arm suggested overdiagnosis. Because that excess could instead have resulted from short follow-up time, we investigated this possibility by conducting long-term lung cancer incidence follow-up.

METHODS

We investigated the lung cancer status through 1999 of the 7118 participants in the Mayo Lung Project who were alive and without diagnosed lung cancer in 1983 by use of medical records, surveys mailed to participants or next-of-kin, and state death certificates.

RESULTS

Information was available for 6101 participants, including 811 with inconclusive lung cancer status. From November 1971 through December 31, 1999, 585 participants in the intervention arm and 500 in the usual-care arm were diagnosed with lung cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

The persistence of excess cases in the intervention arm after 16 additional years of follow-up provides continued support for overdiagnosis in lung cancer screening.

Estimating the growth rates of primary lung tumours from samples with missing measurements

A method to estimate the population variability in tumour growth rate using incomplete data was developed. We assume exponential growth and lognormal distribution for the parameter of the growth curve. Estimates of growth rate obtained based on the cases with two measurements, one of which is obtained retrospectively, are biased towards lower growth rate. For the data sets where two measurements are available for some tumours and only one measurement for others (which means that no tumour was seen in retrospect for those cases), several approaches were developed that can eliminate or substantially reduce the bias. The relative error of the best estimates, as assessed by simulation, rarely exceeds 20 per cent. We found that the results of application of our estimation procedures to chest X-ray screening data agree well with the expectations.

Overview of observational studies of low-dose helical computed tomography screening for lung cancer

OBJECTIVE

Lung cancer is a substantial public health problem in Western countries. Evidence from previous controlled trials of chest radiography and sputum cytology does not support lung cancer screening, but computed tomography (CT) screening has recently emerged as a more sensitive screening tool. For the present article, the available observational studies of low-dose helical CT screening for lung cancer were reviewed.

METHODOLOGY

An evidence-based review of all published observational studies of low-dose helical CT screening for lung cancer, identified by an extensive search of Medline, was conducted.

RESULTS

Eight observational studies of CT screening for lung cancer were identified. Relative to chest radiography, low-dose helical CT is a sensitive screening tool and can detect a high proportion of small lung cancers at an early and resectable stage. The yield of sputum cytology in addition to CT screening appears to be relatively low. To date, 5-year lung cancer survival of all individuals participating in baseline screening has not been reported for any of the studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Although these preliminary studies are very promising, it remains to be proven that the early detection and treatment of lung cancer will lead to a reduction in mortality. This issue will be addressed by randomized controlled trials. In the interim, the long-term follow up of these observational studies could provide further insights.

CT Screening for Lung Cancer: Past and Ongoing Studies

It has been widely recognized that the oft-quoted randomized clinical trials (RCTs) of lung cancer screening by chest radiography--studies that were interpreted as showing no benefit--were seriously flawed. We begin by describing the shortcomings of these trials and presenting an analysis of the problems typically encountered in performing RCTs in this area. Screening for lung cancer using computed tomography (CT) has shown that CT offers great superiority over chest radiography in diagnosing small lung cancers in the three studies that performed both CT and chest radiography on all patients. The Early Lung Cancer Action Project (ELCAP), showed that false-positive results can be kept reasonably low and are much less common on repeat screening, and that CT screening can be managed with no notable excess of percutaneous or surgical biopsies when following a well-defined regimen of screening. This regimen details the parameters of the initial CT, the definition of a positive result, and the subsequent work-up of positive results. Following the updated International (I)-ELCAP protocol, it has been further found that (1) the frequency of positive results is low: 15% for the baseline cycle of screening and 6% for the subsequent cycles. (2) The frequency of screen-diagnoses as compared with all diagnoses is 97% or higher. (3) The relative frequency of presurgical Stage I is well over 80%; the median diameter of the screen-diagnosed cases on repeat screening is 8 mm (versus 15 mm at baseline screening). (4) A high percentage of the screen-diagnosed cases were genuine cancers which led to death if not treated. (5) The estimated 8-year cure rate for resected baseline screen-diagnosed lung cancers without evidence of lymph node metastases is 95% and for resected annual repeat cancers is 98%. (6) CT screening appears to be highly cost-effective. These preliminary results of CT screening suggests that the cure rate of screen-diagnosed lung cancer, using the I-ELCAP regimen of screening, may be over 70% as compared with that of usual care of 10% and that of chest radiographic screening of 20%.

Confounding by dietary factors in case-control studies on the efficacy of cancer screening in Japan

Evaluation of cancer screening using case-control studies is less valid in comparison to randomized controlled trails, due to the intrusion of a possible self-selection bias in the former. The randomized controlled trial approach, however, may be difficult in developed countries where mass cancer screening programs are already being performed nationally. Accordingly, case-control studies are often performed instead of randomized controlled trials. In case-control studies, no reports could be found in the literature using dietary habit, an important influencing factor in carcinogenesis, as an adjusting item. We surveyed nutrition and food intake status through a nutrition survey using the weighing method, and smoking prevalence and alcohol consumption with questionnaires in the general population in northern Japan, in subjects over 30 years of age. We then compared these results among non-participants and participants in cancer screening programs, and evaluated how any differences between the two groups might affect the results of case-control studies. Non-participants had a significantly lower intake of vegetables, carotene, vitamin C, and dietary fiber, which are thought to be beneficial factors in the prevention of carcinogenesis. Non-participants had a significantly higher cigarette smoking prevalence than participants. In relation to the intake of vegetables, a difference between participants and non-participants was evident, as proper adjustment for vegetable intake led to an odds ratio closer to the null value. The value of the odds ratio will probably not decrease, but it might increase when other dietary factors or smoking are taken into consideration.

Evaluation of automated lung nodule detection on low-dose computed tomography scans from a lung cancer screening program(1)

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the performance of a fully automated lung nodule detection method in a large database of low-dose computed tomography (CT) scans from a lung cancer screening program. Because nodules demonstrate a spectrum of radiologic appearances, the performance of the automated method was evaluated on the basis of nodule malignancy status, size, subtlety, and radiographic opacity.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A database of 393 thick-section (10 mm) low-dose CT scans was collected. Automated lung nodule detection proceeds in two phases: gray-level thresholding for the initial identification of nodule candidates, followed by the application of a rule-based classifier and linear discriminant analysis to distinguish between candidates that correspond to actual lung nodules and candidates that correspond to non-nodules. Free-response receiver operating characteristic analysis was used to evaluate the performance of the method based on a jackknife training/testing approach.

RESULTS

An overall nodule detection sensitivity of 70% (330 of 470) was attained with an average of 1.6 false-positive detections per section. At the same false-positive rate, 83% (57 of 69) of the malignant lung nodules in the database were detected. When the method was trained specifically for malignant nodules, a sensitivity of 80% (55 of 69) was attained with 0.85 false-positives per section.

CONCLUSION

We have evaluated an automated lung nodule detection method with a large number of low-dose CT scans from a lung cancer screening program. An overall sensitivity of 80% for malignant nodules was achieved with 0.85 false-positive detections per section. Such a computerized lung nodule detection method is expected to become an important part of CT-based lung cancer screening programs.

Genetic polymorphism of the CYP1A1, CYP2E1, GSTM1 and GSTT1 genes and lung cancer susceptibility in a north indian population

CYP1A1, CYP2E1, GSTM1 and GSTT1 polymorphisms were evaluated in north Indian lung cancer patients and controls. The estimated relative risk for lung cancer associated with the CYP1A1*2C allele was 2.68. Apart from the CYP1A1*2C genotype, there was no attributable risk in relation to other genotypes when analyzed singly. However, in the presence of a single copy of the variant CYP1A1 (CYP1A1*1/2A) and null GSTT1 genes, there was a three-fold increased risk for lung cancer; when stratified histologically the relative risk increased to 3.7 in case of SQCC. Similarly individuals carrying the mutant CYP1A1*2C genotype and single copy of the variant CYP1A1 Mspl allele, had a relative risk of 2.85 for lung cancer. In case of the GSTM1 and CYP1A1 genotypes, null GSTM1 and variant Msp1 alleles had two-fold elevated risk for SQCC. On the other hand CYP1A1*2C and null GSTM1 genotype had a 3.5-fold elevated risk for SCLC. Stratified analysis indicated a multiplicative interaction between tobacco smoking and variant CYP1A1 genotypes on the risk for SQCC and SCLC. The heavy smokers (BI > 400) with CYP1A1*2C genotype were at a very high risk to develop SCLC with an OR of 29.30 (95% CI = 2.42-355, p = 0.008). Taken together, these findings, the first to be analyzed in north Indian population, suggest that combined GSTT1 , GSTM1 and CYP1A1 polymorphisms could be susceptible to lung cancer induced by bidi (an Indian cigarette) smoking.

The Natural History of Radiographically Occult Bronchogenic Squamous Cell Carcinoma

OBJECTIVE

An overdiagnosis bias occurs with the diagnosis of a disease that does not produce signs or symptoms before the patient dies from other causes. We sought to determine whether overdiagnosis bias is a factor when screening for squamous cell carcinoma of the lung.

DESIGN

Retrospective study of the Miyagi Population-Based Lung Cancer Screening Registry for high-risk patients who were seen between January 1, 1982 (when sputum cytology tests were added for men with long smoking histories), and December 31, 1996.

SETTING

Miyagi Prefecture, Japan.

PATIENTS

A total of 251 patients (all men) who had sputum cytology test results that were positive for squamous cell carcinoma but had normal radiograph findings, 44 of whom declined cancer treatment (mean age, 70 years) and 207 of whom were treated with resection within 12 weeks of diagnosis (mean age, 65.5 year).

END POINTS

Five-year and 10-year survival rates from primary lung cancer in both groups as of August 15, 2001.

RESULTS

Among the 44 untreated patients, 15 (34%) remained asymptomatic. The survival rate due to primary lung cancer death in the untreated group was 53.2% at 5 years and 33.5% at 10 years. The survival rate among treated patients was 96.7% at 5 years and 94.9% at 10 years. Of the 125 treated patients who died, 14 (11.2%) died from primary lung cancer.

CONCLUSION

Given that the two thirds of the untreated patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the bronchus died from lung cancer within 10 years, overdiagnosis bias does not appear to be a factor in screening for this disease. Thus, we recommend that patients with radiographically occult squamous cell carcinoma of the bronchus undergo tumor treatment after localization.

Screening for lung cancer

BACKGROUND

While population based screening for lung cancer has not been adopted by most countries, it is not clear whether sputum examinations, chest radiography or newer methods such as computed tomography are effective in reducing mortality from lung cancer.

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether screening for lung cancer using regular sputum examinations or chest radiography or CT chest reduces lung cancer mortality.

SEARCH STRATEGY

Electronic databases (the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE, PREMEDLINE and EMBASE; 1966 to July 2000) ), bibliographies, hand searching of a journal and discussion with experts were used to identify published and unpublished trials.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Controlled trials of screening for lung cancer using sputum examinations, chest radiography or CT chest.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Intention to screen analysis was performed. Where there was significant statistical heterogeneity relative risks were reported using the random effects model, but for other outcomes the fixed effect model was used.

MAIN RESULTS

Seven trials were included (6 randomised controlled studies and 1 non-randomised controlled trial) with a total of 245,610 subjects. There were no studies with an unscreened control group. Frequent screening with chest x-rays was associated with an 11% relative increase in mortality from lung cancer compared with less frequent screening (RR 1.11, CI: 1.00-1.23). A non statistically significant trend was observed to reduced mortality from lung cancer when screening with chest x-ray and sputum cytology was compared with chest x-ray alone (RR 0.88, CI:0.74-1.03). Several of the included studies had potential methodological weaknesses. There were no controlled studies of spiral CT.

REVIEWER'S CONCLUSIONS

The current evidence does not support screening for lung cancer with chest radiography or sputum cytology. Frequent chest x-ray screening might be harmful. Further, methodologically rigorous trials are required.

[Bronchial carcinoma. Epidemiology, diagnosis and therapy]

Bronchial carcinoma still has a dark prognosis and therapeutic progress remains painfully slow: the 5-year survival rate raised in the last 20 years from 11 to 15%. There are no early symptoms by the tumor and detection by screening is not effective. Worldwide incidence is raising, the falling rates in men in the western world have been compensated by a steep increase in eastern Europe an Asia. Cigarette smoking is in 85% the main cause of this epidemic. Better understanding of genetic predisposition may identify patients at higher risk. Tumor in stage IA-IIB of non small cell carcinoma could gain by neoadjuvant chemotherapy, what is more probable for stage IIA and IIIB. Radiation therapy in combination with chemotherapy improves survival in inoperable stage IIIB. In stage IV disease palliative chemotherapy is superior to best supportive care.

The cost-effectiveness of low-dose CT screening for lung cancer: preliminary results of baseline screening

BACKGROUND

Low-dose CT scan screening greatly improves the likelihood of detecting small nodules and, thus, of detecting lung cancer at a potentially more curable stage.

METHODS

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a single baseline low-dose CT scan for lung cancer screening in high-risk individuals, data from the Early Lung Cancer Action Project (ELCAP) was incorporated into a decision analysis model comparing low-dose CT scan screening of high-risk individuals (ie, those > or = 60 years with at least 10 pack-years of cigarette smoking and no other malignancies) to observation without screening. Cost-effectiveness was expressed as the incremental cost per year of life saved. The analysis adopted the perspectives of the health-care system. The probability of the different outcomes following the decision either to screen or not to screen an individual at risk was based on data from ELCAP and the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Registry or published data, respectively. The cost of the screening and treatment of patients with lung cancer was established based on data from the New York Presbyterian Hospital's financial system. The base-case analysis was conducted under the assumption of similar aggressiveness of screen-detected and incidentally discovered lung cancers and then was followed by multiple sensitivity analyses to relax these assumptions.

RESULTS

The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of a single baseline low-dose CT scan was 2,500 US dollars per year of life saved. The base-case analysis showed that screening would be expected to increase survival by 0.1 year at an incremental cost of approximately 230 US dollars. Only when the likelihood of overdiagnosis was > 50% did the cost effectiveness ratio exceed 50,000 US dollars per year of life saved. The cost-effectiveness ratios were also relatively insensitive to estimates of the potential lead-time bias.

CONCLUSIONS

A baseline low-dose CT scan for lung cancer screening is potentially highly cost-effective and compares favorably to the cost-effectiveness ratios of other screening programs.

The efficacy of lung cancer screening conducted in 1990s: four case-control studies in Japan

The efficacy of lung cancer screening is still controversial. In order to evaluate efficacy of mass screening for lung cancer in 1990s, the Japanese Ministry of Health and Welfare planned to conduct four independent case-control studies in four different regions; Miyagi, Gunma, Niigata, and Okayama Prefecture. The study design of all the four studies was a matched case-control study in which the decedents from lung cancer were defined as cases. In Gunma Prefecture, a screening examination is annual miniature chest X-ray only, whereas sputum cytology is added for high-risk screenees in others. Matching conditions were gender, year of birth, smoking histories (except Okayama), and municipality. Smoking adjusted odds ratio (OR) of dying from lung cancer for those screened within 12 months before case diagnosis compared with those not screened ranged 0.40-0.68. Three of four studies revealed statistically significant reduction of the risk for lung cancer death. OR of pooled analysis, where all sets were combined and analyzed, was 0.56 (95% confidence interval: 0.48-0.65). Recent mass screening program for lung cancer in Japan could reduce the risk for lung cancer death. However, the possibility exists that some confounding factors affected the results. In order to elucidate whether the results can be applied to Western countries, further studies will be required.

Computed tomography screening for lung cancer

The development of CT technology reopened the lung cancer screening debate. Computed tomography screening for lung cancer certainly meets all the criteria required for an appropriate screening test. First and perhaps most importantly, the disease for which the screening is being performed should have a significant prevalence in the population being studied and be a significant health risk for those afflicted with it. Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death in both men and women, and one of the most lethal of all cancers.

Modeling of long-term screening for lung carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Results from the Mayo Lung Project (MLP), a randomized clinical trial for the early detection of lung carcinoma, were interpreted as proof that the early detection of lung carcinoma by chest X-ray does not reduce the mortality from this disease. Recent analysis of extended follow-up data from the MLP subjects found that after approximately 20 years there still was no apparent difference in lung carcinoma mortality between a study group and a control group.

METHODS

To view this result within context, the authors utilized a previously published simulation model of the MLP, with parametric values that were estimated at the time of the original publication based on the data collected by the MLP.

RESULTS

The model produced predictions of the extended follow-up statistics that were found to be consistent with the data published in the prior study. The authors believe this provides long-term validation for the model. Conversely, the same model demonstrated that had the study subjects been screened annually for the extended follow-up period, the difference in mortality would be noticeable, even with the low sensitivity of chest X-ray detection.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of current study strongly suggest that long-term screening with chest X-ray results in a reduction in lung carcinoma mortality. The limited extent of this benefit is the result of the low sensitivity of chest X-ray as a screening tool.

A case-control study for evaluating the efficacy of mass screening program for lung cancer in Miyagi Prefecture, Japan

BACKGROUND

In Miyagi Prefecture, Japan, a mass screening program for lung cancer has been conducted since 1982 (miniature chest X-ray for all screenees and sputum cytology for those with a smoking index > or = 600) [smoking index 600 = 30 pack years, the average number of cigarettes smoked per day multiplied by the number of years of regular smoking]. Over 1500 lung carcinomas, including 250 roentgenographically occult lung tumors, were detected and treated up to 1999. In the current study, a nested case-control study was conducted in the population that was screened in 1989 to evaluate the efficacy of the screening program for lung cancer.

METHODS

To reduce self-selection bias, the source population was defined as screenees with negative results in 1989 (284,226 individuals). In the population, 474 individuals died of lung carcinoma during 1992-1994. After exclusion, 328 patients who died of primary lung carcinoma at between ages 40 years and 79 years were defined as the cases. Six controls were supposed to be selected in the source population for each case and matched by gender, year of birth, municipality, and smoking habits. Controls who had died or moved before the matched case was diagnosed were excluded. Finally, 328 cases and 1886 controls were selected. Screening histories were compared, and odds ratios were calculated using conditional logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

Within the 12 months before diagnosis, 241 of 328 cases (73.5%) had attended the screening compared with 1557 of 1886 controls (82.6%). The smoking-adjusted odds ratio was 0.54 (95% confidence interval, 0.41-0.73).

CONCLUSIONS

The mass screening program for lung cancer in Miyagi Prefecture was capable of reducing by 46% the risk of death from carcinoma of the lung.

Screening for lung cancer

BACKGROUND

The effectiveness of screening for lung cancer with chest radiography, sputum cytology or spiral CT has not been established.

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether screening for lung cancer using regular sputum examinations or chest radiography or CT chest reduces lung cancer mortality.

SEARCH STRATEGY

Electronic databases, bibliographies, hand searching of a journal and discussion with experts were used to identify published and unpublished trials.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Controlled trials of screening for lung cancer using sputum examinations, chest radiography or CT chest.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Intention to screen analysis was performed. Where there was significant statistical heterogeneity relative risks were reported using the random effect model, but for other outcomes the fixed effect model was used.

MAIN RESULTS

Seven trials were included (6 randomised controlled studies and 1 non-randomised controlled trial) with a total of 245,610 subjects. There were no studies with an unscreened control group. Frequent screening with chest x-rays was associated with an 11% relative increase in mortality from lung cancer compared with less frequent screening (RR 1.11, CI: 1.00-1.23). A non statistically significant trend was observed to reduced mortality from lung cancer when screening with chest x-ray and sputum cytology was compared with chest x-ray alone (RR 0.88, CI:0.74-1.03). Several of the included studies had potential methodological weaknesses. There were no controlled studies of spiral CT.

REVIEWER'S CONCLUSIONS

The current evidence does not support screening for lung cancer with chest radiography or sputum cytology. Frequent chest x-ray screening might be harmful. Further, methodologically rigorous trials are required.

Results of three-year mass screening programme for lung cancer using mobile low-dose spiral computed tomography scanner

The aim of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of annual screening for lung cancer by low-dose computed tomography (CT) and the characteristics of identified lung cancers. Subjects consisted of 5483 general population aged 40-74 years, who received initial CT scans in 1996, followed by repeat annual scans for most subjects in 1997 and 1998, with a total of 13 786 scans taken during 1996-1998. Work-up examinations for patients with suspicious lesions were conducted using diagnostic CTs. The initial screening in 1996 detected suspicious nodules in 279 (5.1%) of 5483 subjects, and 22 (8%) were confirmed surgically to have lung cancer. Corresponding figures in 1997 and 1998 screening studies were 173 (3.9%) of 4425 and 25 (14%) of 173, and 136 (3.5%) of 3878 and 9 (7%) of 136, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of detecting surgically confirmed lung cancer were 55% (22/40) and 95% (4960/5199) in 1996 and 83% (25/30) and 97% (4113/4252) in 1997 screening, respectively. 88% (55/60) of lung cancers identified on screening and surgically confirmed were AJCC stage IA. Our trial allowed detection of nearly 11 times the expected annual number of early lung cancers. Repeat CT allowed the detection of more aggressive, rapidly growing lung cancers, compared to those in the initial screening.