Individual recovery expectations and prognosis of outcomes in non-specific low back pain: prognostic factor exemplar review

Post-stroke Cognition is Associated with Stroke Survivor Quality of Life and Caregiver Outcomes: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Disability arising from post-stroke cognitive impairment is a likely contributor to the poor quality of life (QoL) stroke survivors and their carers frequently experience, but this has not been summarily quantified. A systematic literature review and meta-analysis was completed examining the association between general and domain-specific post-stroke cognitive functioning and adult stroke survivor QoL, caregiver QoL, and caregiver burden. Five databases were systematically searched, and eligibility for inclusion, data extraction, and study quality were evaluated by two reviewers using a standardised protocol. Effects sizes (r) were estimated using a random effects model. Thirty-eight studies were identified, generating a sample of 7365 stroke survivors (median age 63.02 years, range 25-93) followed for 3 to 132 months post-stroke. Overall cognition (all domains combined) demonstrated a significant small to medium association with QoL, r = 0.23 (95% CI 0.18-0.28), p < 0.001. The cognitive domains of speed, attention, visuospatial, memory, and executive skills, but not language, also demonstrated a significant relationship with QoL. Regarding caregiver outcomes, 15 studies were identified resulting in a sample of 2421 caregivers (median age 58.12 years, range 18-82) followed for 3 to 84 months post-stroke. Stroke survivor overall cognitive ability again demonstrated a significant small to medium association with caregiver outcomes (QoL and burden combined), r = 0.17 (95% CI 0.10-0.24), p < 0.001. In conclusion, lower post-stroke cognitive performance is associated with significant reductions in stroke survivor QoL and poorer caregiver outcomes. Cognitive assessment is recommended early to identify those at risk and implement timely interventions to support both stroke survivors and their caregivers.

Efficacy of cognitive behavioral therapy for reducing pain susceptibility and increasing social engagement in patients with chronic low back pain: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The objective of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of cognitive behavioral therapy in improving social engagement and pain susceptibility in patients with chronic low back pain (≥6 months duration).

METHODS

From the initial to January 2023, 5 databases were searched for randomized controlled trials, literature screening, quality evaluation, and data extraction were performed by 2 independent researchers throughout, Meta-analysis was performed using RevMan 5.4 software, standardized mean difference (SMD) was calculated for different indicators, and the combined experimental and control groups were calculated using random-effects models or fixed-effects models effect sizes, and forest plots were drawn to present the results.

RESULTS

A total of 16 studies containing 2527 patients with chronic nonspecific low back pain, all of whom had pain lasting longer than 6 months, were included, and after treatment, cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) was superior to other treatments in improving social participation [SMD = -0.30, 95%CI (-0.60, -0.01), Z = 2.02, P = .04]. There was no significant difference from other treatments in improving patient depression [SMD = -0.07, 95%CI (-0.19, 0.05), Z = 1.11, P = .27] and anxiety [SMD = -0.07, 95%CI (-0.30, 0.16), Z = 0.52, P = .57]. Three papers describe the superiority of CBT over other treatments in improving sleep quality, but the metrics could not be combined due to too little literature.

CONCLUSION

CBT can improve patients' social participation and pain susceptibility to some extent, but it does not show advantages for managing negative emotions (depression, anxiety). Due to the limited number and low quality of included literature, the above findings still need to be validated by conducting a large sample of high-quality RCTs.

Biological and psychological early prognostic factors in complex regional pain syndrome: A systematic review

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Several risk factors for the onset of CRPS have been found, but evidence for prognostic factors associated with the progression of this condition remains sparse. However, the detection and management of these factors are necessary to design secondary prevention strategies. The objective of this systematic review was to identify prognostic factors in adult individuals with early CRPS.

DATABASE AND DATA TREATMENT

PubMed, Embase, PsycINFO, Cochrane Library and Scopus, were published between January 1990 and November 2021. Two independent investigators selected cross-sectional and longitudinal studies looking at early (<12 weeks from onset) prognostic factors for pain, CRPS severity score, disability, return to work, or quality of life. The quality in prognostic studies (QUIPS) tool was used to assess the risk of bias. A qualitative meta-synthesis was performed.

RESULTS

Out of 4652 different articles, six studies met the inclusion criteria. We identified 21 early factors associated with a poorer prognosis in type I CRPS. We found moderate evidence to support six of them: higher pain intensity, self-rated disability, anxiety, pain-related fear, being a female and high-energy triggering event. Only two studies had an overall low risk of bias.

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed an important lack of information on early prognostic factors in CRPS. Only one article investigated the link with psychological characteristics. There is a crucial need for larger studies, with a well-defined population using validated measures.

SIGNIFICANCE

This systematic review highlights the lack of knowledge about early prognostic factors in CRPS. A few putative prognostic factors were identified. Most of the moderate evidence is related to a single cohort. Future research is required to find out which patients are vulnerable to chronification.

Prognosis of adults and children following a first unprovoked seizure

BACKGROUND

Epilepsy is clinically defined as two or more unprovoked epileptic seizures more than 24 hours apart. Given that, a diagnosis of epilepsy can be associated with significant morbidity and mortality, it is imperative that clinicians (and people with seizures and their relatives) have access to accurate and reliable prognostic estimates, to guide clinical practice on the risks of developing further unprovoked seizures (and by definition, a diagnosis of epilepsy) following single unprovoked epileptic seizure.

OBJECTIVES

1. To provide an accurate estimate of the proportion of individuals going on to have further unprovoked seizures at subsequent time points following a single unprovoked epileptic seizure (or cluster of epileptic seizures within a 24-hour period, or a first episode of status epilepticus), of any seizure type (overall prognosis). 2. To evaluate the mortality rate following a first unprovoked epileptic seizure.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the following databases on 19 September 2019 and again on 30 March 2021, with no language restrictions. The Cochrane Register of Studies (CRS Web), MEDLINE Ovid (1946 to March 29, 2021), SCOPUS (1823 onwards), ClinicalTrials.gov, the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP). CRS Web includes randomized or quasi-randomized, controlled trials from PubMed, Embase, ClinicalTrials.gov, the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP), the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), and the Specialized Registers of Cochrane Review Groups including Epilepsy. In MEDLINE (Ovid) the coverage end date always lags a few days behind the search date.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included studies, both retrospective and prospective, of all age groups (except those in the neonatal period (< 1 month of age)), of people with a single unprovoked seizure, followed up for a minimum of six months, with no upper limit of follow-up, with the study end point being seizure recurrence, death, or loss to follow-up. To be included, studies must have included at least 30 participants. We excluded studies that involved people with seizures that occur as a result of an acute precipitant or provoking factor, or in close temporal proximity to an acute neurological insult, since these are not considered epileptic in aetiology (acute symptomatic seizures). We also excluded people with situational seizures, such as febrile convulsions.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors conducted the initial screening of titles and abstracts identified through the electronic searches, and removed non-relevant articles. We obtained the full-text articles of all remaining potentially relevant studies, or those whose relevance could not be determined from the abstract alone and two authors independently assessed for eligibility. All disagreements were resolved through discussion with no need to defer to a third review author. We extracted data from included studies using a data extraction form based on the checklist for critical appraisal and data extraction for systematicreviews of prediction modelling studies (CHARMS). Two review authors then appraised the included studies, using a standardised approach based on the quality in prognostic studies (QUIPS) tool, which was adapted for overall prognosis (seizure recurrence). We conducted a meta-analysis using Review Manager 2014, with a random-effects generic inverse variance meta-analysis model, which accounted for any between-study heterogeneity in the prognostic effect. We then summarised the meta-analysis by the pooled estimate (the average prognostic factor effect), its 95% confidence interval (CI), the estimates of I² and Tau² (heterogeneity), and a 95% prediction interval for the prognostic effect in a single population at three various time points, 6 months, 12 months and 24 months. Subgroup analysis was performed according to the ages of the cohorts included; studies involving all ages, studies that recruited adult only and those that were purely paediatric.

MAIN RESULTS

Fifty-eight studies (involving 54 cohorts), with a total of 12,160 participants (median 147, range 31 to 1443), met the inclusion criteria for the review. Of the 58 studies, 26 studies were paediatric studies, 16 were adult and the remaining 16 studies were a combination of paediatric and adult populations. Most included studies had a cohort study design with two case-control studies and one nested case-control study. Thirty-two studies (29 cohorts) reported a prospective longitudinal design whilst 15 studies had a retrospective design whilst the remaining studies were randomised controlled trials. Nine of the studies included presented mortality data following a first unprovoked seizure. For a mortality study to be included, a proportional mortality ratio (PMR) or a standardised mortality ratio (SMR) had to be given at a specific time point following a first unprovoked seizure. To be included in the meta-analysis a study had to present clear seizure recurrence data at 6 months, 12 months or 24 months. Forty-six studies were included in the meta-analysis, of which 23 were paediatric, 13 were adult, and 10 were a combination of paediatric and adult populations. A meta-analysis was performed at three time points; six months, one year and two years for all ages combined, paediatric and adult studies, respectively. We found an estimated overall seizure recurrence of all included studies at six months of 27% (95% CI 24% to 31%), 36% (95% CI 33% to 40%) at one year and 43% (95% CI 37% to 44%) at two years, with slightly lower estimates for adult subgroup analysis and slightly higher estimates for paediatric subgroup analysis. It was not possible to provide a summary estimate of the risk of seizure recurrence beyond these time points as most of the included studies were of short follow-up and too few studies presented recurrence rates at a single time point beyond two years. The evidence presented was found to be of moderate certainty.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Despite the limitations of the data (moderate-certainty of evidence), mainly relating to clinical and methodological heterogeneity we have provided summary estimates for the likely risk of seizure recurrence at six months, one year and two years for both children and adults. This provides information that is likely to be useful for the clinician counselling patients (or their parents) on the probable risk of further seizures in the short-term whilst acknowledging the paucity of long-term recurrence data, particularly beyond 10 years.

An Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis of Living with Chronic Low Back Pain in Ethiopia

Background

People with chronic low back pain experience myriads of problems from living with their condition. This study aimed to explore the lived experience of people with chronic low back pain in Ethiopia.

Design

This is a qualitative semi-structured study design which used an interpretative phenomenological analysis approach for data analysis.

Participants

Fifteen adults (10 women and 5 men) with chronic low back pain (duration ≥ 3 months) with age ranging from 19 to 66 years old were interviewed.

Setting

Participants were recruited from the outpatient departments of the University of Gondar hospital in Gondar, Ethiopia.

Methods

Data was collected through an in-depth semi-structured interview. Interviews were audio-recorded and transcribed verbatim. Data were analyzed through an iterative process, beginning with a line-by-line coding to identify the lived experience of chronic low back pain.

Findings

Five main themes related to the lived experience of people with chronic low back pain emerged: 1) CLBP impacts life on a day-to-day basis, 2) The invisibility of pain results in misunderstanding, misjudgment, and loneliness, 3) The cause of pain is a mystery, 4) The search for the cure is a quest, 5) Each person has their ways of managing, coping, and living with pain.

Conclusion

The findings from this study improve our understanding of the experience of people with chronic low back pain and its impact on their day-to-day life in Ethiopia. The findings from this study could inform the development of culturally centered chronic low back pain interventions such as self-management programs in the Ethiopian context.

Illness perceptions; exploring mediators and/or moderators in disabling persistent low back pain. Multiple baseline single-case experimental design

Introduction

Illness Perceptions (IPs) may play a role in the management of persistent low back pain. The mediation and/or moderation effect of IPs on primary outcomes in physiotherapy treatment is unknown.

Methods

A multiple single-case experimental design, using a matched care physiotherapy intervention, with three phases (phases A-B-A’) was used including a 3 month follow up (phase A’). Primary outcomes: pain intensity, physical functioning and pain interference in daily life. Analyzes: linear mixed models, adjusted for fear of movement, catastrophizing, avoidance, sombreness and sleep.

Results

Nine patients were included by six different primary care physiotherapists. Repeated measures on 196 data points showed that IPs Consequences, Personal control, Identity, Concern and Emotional response had a mediation effect on all three primary outcomes. The IP Personal control acted as a moderator for all primary outcomes, with clinically relevant improvements at 3 month follow up.

Conclusion

Our study might indicate that some IPs have a mediating or a moderating effect on the outcome of a matched care physiotherapy treatment. Assessing Personal control at baseline, as a relevant moderator for the outcome prognosis of successful physiotherapy management of persistent low back pain, should be further eplored.

Pre-operative prognostic factors for walking capacity after surgery for lumbar spinal stenosis: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS) reduces walking and quality of life. It is the main indication for spinal surgery in older people yet 40% report walking disability post-operatively. Identifying the prognostic factors of post-operative walking capacity could aid clinical decision-making, guide rehabilitation and optimise health outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

To synthesise the evidence for pre-operative mutable and immutable prognostic factors for post-operative walking in adults with LSS.

DESIGN

Systematic review with narrative synthesis.

METHODS

Electronic databases (CENTRAL, MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, Web of Science, OpenGrey) were searched for observational studies, evaluating factors associated with walking after surgery in adults receiving surgery for LSS from database inception to January 2020. Two reviewers independently evaluated studies for eligibility, extracted data and assessed risk of bias (Quality in Prognosis Studies). The Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation method was used to determine level of evidence for each factor.

RESULTS

5526 studies were screened for eligibility. Thirty-four studies (20 cohorts, 9,973 participants, 26 high, 2 moderate, 6 low risk of bias) were included. Forty variables (12 mutable) were identified. There was moderate quality of evidence that pre-operative walking capacity was positively associated with post-operative walking capacity. The presence of spondylolisthesis and the severity of stenosis were not associated with post-operative walking capacity. All other factors investigated had low/very low level of evidence.

CONCLUSION

Greater pre-operative walking is associated with greater post-operative walking capacity but not spondylolisthesis or severity of stenosis. Few studies have investigated mutable prognostic factors that could be potentially targeted to optimise surgical outcomes.

Cross-cultural translation, adaptation, and validation of the Amharic version pain self-efficacy questionnaire in people with low back pain in Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

The Pain Self-Efficacy Questionnaire (PSEQ) is a valid and reliable instrument that evaluates pain self-efficacy beliefs in people with pain conditions. However, it has not been validated and used in Ethiopia. We conducted this study to translate, adapt, and test the psychometric properties of the PSEQ in the Amharic language and Ethiopian context for its use with people experiencing low back pain (LBP).

METHODS

The PSEQ was translated into Amharic and then back-translated into English. An expert review committee created a final Amharic version of the tool (PSEQ-Am), followed by pilot testing and cognitive debriefing with a sample of 20 people with LBP. The psychometric properties of the final version of PSEQ-Am were assessed in a sample of 240 people with LBP recruited from three rehabilitation centers in Ethiopia. Cronbach's alpha and Intra-class correlation coefficient were calculated to describe the reliability and internal consistency of the tool. The SF-36-Am bodily pain subscale was used to assess convergent validity. Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) and Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) were performed to determine the dimensionality of the instrument.

RESULTS

PSEQ-Am demonstrated excellent test-retest reliability (ICC = 0.93) and internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha = 0.91). As hypothesized, the tool demonstrated a significant moderate correlation with the Bodily Pain subscale of the SF-36-Am (Rho = 0.51, p < 0.01). EFA analysis shows that the Amharic version of PSEQ is a dominant one factor and secondary two factor structure.

CONCLUSION

This study shows that PSEQ-Am is a reliable and valid tool that can be used in both clinical practice and research in the Ethiopian low back pain population.

Psychosocial and behavioural prognostic factors for diabetic foot ulcer development and healing: a systematic review

AIM

To investigate whether ulceration, amputation and healing of foot ulcers in people living with diabetes are associated with psychosocial and behavioural factors.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, Embase, PsychINFO, CINAHL and The Cochrane Library to March 2019 for longitudinal studies with multivariable analyses investigating independent associations. Two reviewers extracted data and assessed risk of bias.

RESULTS

We identified 15 eligible studies involving over 12 000 participants. Clinical and methodological heterogeneity precluded meta-analysis, so we summarize narratively. Risk of bias was moderate or high. For ulceration, we found significantly different results for people with and without an ulcer history. For those with no ulcer history, moderate quality evidence suggests depression increases ulcer risk [three studies; e.g. hazard ratio (HR) 1.68 (1.20, 2.35) per Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) standard unit]. Better foot self-care behaviour reduces ulcer risk [HR 0.61 (0.40, 0.93) per Summary of Diabetes Self-Care Activities scale standard unit; one study]. For people with diabetes and previous ulcers, low- or very low-quality evidence suggests little discernible association between ulcer recurrence and depression [e.g. HR 0.88 (0.61, 1.27) per HADS standard unit], foot self-care, footwear adherence or exercise. Low-quality evidence suggests incomplete clinic attendance is strongly associated with amputation [odds ratio (OR) 3.84 (1.54, 9.52); one study]. Evidence for the effects of other psychosocial or behavioural factors on ulcer healing and amputation is very low quality and inconclusive.

CONCLUSIONS

Psychosocial and behavioural factors may influence the development of first ulcers. More high quality research is needed on ulcer recurrence and healing. (Open Science Framework Registration: https://osf.io/ej689).

Sarcopenia and ovarian cancer survival: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Sarcopenia is the loss of skeletal muscle mass and function that occurs with advancing age and certain diseases. It is thought to have a negative impact on survival in cancer patients. Routine computed tomography imaging is often used to quantify skeletal muscle in cancer patients. Sarcopenia is defined by a low skeletal muscle index (SMI). Skeletal muscle radiation attenuation (SMRA) is used to define muscle quality. The primary aim of this meta-analysis was to study the association between sarcopenia or SMRA and overall survival (OS) or complications in patients with ovarian cancer.

METHODS

Medline, Embase, CINAHL, and PEDro databases were searched from inception to 15 February 2019. Studies evaluating the prognostic effect of SMI and SMRA on ovarian cancer survival or surgical complications were included. Risk of bias and study quality were evaluated with the Quality in Prognosis Studies Instrument (QUIPS) according to the modified Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) framework.

RESULTS

The search strategy yielded 4262 hits in all four databases combined. Ten and eight studies were included for qualitative and quantitative analysis, respectively. Meta-analysis revealed a significant association between the SMI and OS [0.007; hazard ratio (HR): 1.11, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03-1.20]. SMRA was also significantly associated with OS (P < 0.001; HR: 1.14, 95% CI: 1.08-1.20). Association between the SMI and surgical complications had borderline statistical significance (0.05; HR: 1.23, 95% CI: 1.00-1.52). The risk of bias assessed with QUIPS was high in all studies. The quality of the evidence was very low.

CONCLUSIONS

Whereas our meta-analysis indicated that a low SMI and low SMRA are associated with survival in ovarian cancer patients, the low quality of the source data precludes drawing definitive conclusions.

Individual recovery expectations and prognosis of outcomes in non-specific low back pain: prognostic factor review

BACKGROUND

Low back pain is costly and disabling. Prognostic factor evidence can help healthcare providers and patients understand likely prognosis, inform the development of prediction models to identify subgroups, and may inform new treatment strategies. Recent studies have suggested that people who have poor expectations for recovery experience more back pain disability, but study results have differed.

OBJECTIVES

To synthesise evidence on the association between recovery expectations and disability outcomes in adults with low back pain, and explore sources of heterogeneity.

SEARCH METHODS

The search strategy included broad and focused electronic searches of MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, and PsycINFO to 12 March 2019, reference list searches of relevant reviews and included studies, and citation searches of relevant expectation measurement tools.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included low back pain prognosis studies from any setting assessing general, self-efficacy, and treatment expectations (measured dichotomously and continuously on a 0 - 10 scale), and their association with work participation, clinically important recovery, functional limitations, or pain intensity outcomes at short (3 months), medium (6 months), long (12 months), and very long (> 16 months) follow-up.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We extracted study characteristics and all reported estimates of unadjusted and adjusted associations between expectations and related outcomes. Two review authors independently assessed risks of bias using the Quality in Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool. We conducted narrative syntheses and meta-analyses when appropriate unadjusted or adjusted estimates were available. Two review authors independently graded and reported the overall quality of evidence.

MAIN RESULTS

We screened 4635 unique citations to include 60 studies (30,530 participants). Thirty-five studies were conducted in Europe, 21 in North America, and four in Australia. Study populations were mostly chronic (37%), from healthcare (62%) or occupational settings (26%). General expectation was the most common type of recovery expectation measured (70%); 16 studies measured more than one type of expectation. Usable data for syntheses were available for 52 studies (87% of studies; 28,885 participants). We found moderate-quality evidence that positive recovery expectations are strongly associated with better work participation (narrative synthesis: 21 studies; meta-analysis: 12 studies, 4777 participants: odds ratio (OR) 2.43, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.64 to 3.62), and low-quality evidence for clinically important recovery outcomes (narrative synthesis: 12 studies; meta-analysis: 5 studies, 1820 participants: OR 1.89, 95% CI 1.49 to 2.41), both at follow-up times closest to 12 months, using adjusted data. The association of recovery expectations with other outcomes of interest, including functional limitations (narrative synthesis: 10 studies; meta-analysis: 3 studies, 1435 participants: OR 1.40, 95% CI 0.85 to 2.31) and pain intensity (narrative synthesis: 9 studies; meta-analysis: 3 studies, 1555 participants: OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.23) outcomes at follow-up times closest to 12 months using adjusted data, is less certain, achieving very low- and low-quality evidence, respectively. No studies reported statistically significant or clinically important negative associations between recovery expectations and any low back pain outcome.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

We found that individual recovery expectations are probably strongly associated with future work participation (moderate-quality evidence) and may be associated with clinically important recovery outcomes (low-quality evidence). The association of recovery expectations with other outcomes of interest is less certain. Our findings suggest that recovery expectations should be considered in future studies, to improve prognosis and management of low back pain.

Systematic review of prognostic factors for work participation in patients with sciatica

Sciatica impacts on the ability to work and may lead to a reduced return to work. This study reviewed and summarised prognostic factors of work participation in patients who received conservative or surgical treatment for clinically diagnosed sciatica. We searched MEDLINE, CINAHL, EMBASE and PsycINFO until January 2018. Cohort studies, using a measure of work participation as outcome, were included. Two independent reviewers performed study inclusion and used the Quality In Prognosis Studies tool for risk of bias assessment and GRADE to rate the quality of the evidence. Based on seven studies describing six cohorts (n=1408 patients) that assessed 21 potential prognostic factors, favourable factors for return to work (follow-up ranging from 3 months to 10 years) included younger age, better general health, less low back pain or sciatica bothersomeness, better physical function, negative straight leg raise-test, physician expecting surgery to be beneficial, better pain coping, less depression and mental stress, less fear of movement and low physical work load. Study results could not be pooled. Using GRADE, the quality of the evidence ranged from moderate to very low, with downgrading mainly for a high risk of bias and imprecision. Several prognostic factors like pain, disability and psychological factors were identified and reviewed, and these could be targeted using additional interventions to optimise return to work. PROSPERO registration number: CRD42016042497.

Prognostic factors for persistent pain after a first episode of nonspecific idiopathic, non-traumatic neck pain: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Prognosis of acute idiopathic neck pain is poor. An overview of modifiable and non-modifiable prognostic factors for the development of chronic musculoskeletal neck pain after an episode of idiopathic, non-traumatic neck pain is needed.

OBJECTIVE

Identify prognostic factors for pain intensity and perceived non-recovery at three, six and 12 months after a first episode of idiopathic, non-traumatic neck pain.

STUDY DESIGN

Systematic review METHODS: Systematic literature search up to October 21, 2017 for prospective prognostic studies with main outcomes perceived non-recovery and pain intensity. The QUIPS was used for quality assessment.

RESULTS

Out of 2737 screened articles six prospective studies with high-risk-of-bias were identified, analyzing 47 and 43 factors for the outcome variables 'pain intensity' and 'perceived non-recovery', respectively. Based on univariate- and multivariate analyses we found moderate evidence for 'age> 40 years' and 'concomitant back pain' to be prognostic for 'pain intensity'. For the outcome 'perceived non-recovery' at 12 months, we found moderate evidence for both 'a previous period of neck pain' and 'accompanying headache' as prognostic variables for persistent pain, based on univariate analysis. No prognostic factor was found which was retained in more than one multivariate analysis for the outcome variable 'perceived non-recovery'. However, the quality of the evidence for these prognostic factors was low to very low.

CONCLUSION

This review identifies prognostic factors for neck pain, of which only a few are modifiable. Further research is needed before drawing definite conclusions about the prognostic value of these factors.

Protease activity as a prognostic factor for wound healing in venous leg ulcers

BACKGROUND

Venous leg ulcers (VLUs) are a common type of complex wound that have a negative impact on people's lives and incur high costs for health services and society. It has been suggested that prolonged high levels of protease activity in the later stages of the healing of chronic wounds may be associated with delayed healing. Protease modulating treatments have been developed which seek to modulate protease activity and thereby promote healing in chronic wounds.

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether protease activity is an independent prognostic factor for the healing of venous leg ulcers.

SEARCH METHODS

In February 2018, we searched the following databases: Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase and CINAHL.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included prospective and retrospective longitudinal studies with any follow-up period that recruited people with VLUs and investigated whether protease activity in wound fluid was associated with future healing of VLUs. We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) analysed as cohort studies, provided interventions were taken into account in the analysis, and case-control studies if there were no available cohort studies. We also included prediction model studies provided they reported separately associations of individual prognostic factors (protease activity) with healing. Studies of any type of protease or combination of proteases were eligible, including proteases from bacteria, and the prognostic factor could be examined as a continuous or categorical variable; any cut-off point was permitted. The primary outcomes were time to healing (survival analysis) and the proportion of people with ulcers completely healed; the secondary outcome was change in ulcer size/rate of wound closure. We extracted unadjusted (simple) and adjusted (multivariable) associations between the prognostic factor and healing.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently assessed studies for inclusion at each stage, and undertook data extraction, assessment of risk of bias and GRADE assessment. We collected association statistics where available. No study reported adjusted analyses: instead we collected unadjusted results or calculated association measures from raw data. We calculated risk ratios when both outcome and prognostic factor were dichotomous variables. When the prognostic factor was reported as continuous data and healing outcomes were dichotomous, we either performed regression analysis or analysed the impact of healing on protease levels, analysing as the standardised mean difference. When both prognostic factor and outcome were continuous data, we reported correlation coefficients or calculated them from individual participant data.We displayed all results on forest plots to give an overall visual representation. We planned to conduct meta-analyses where this was appropriate, otherwise we summarised narratively.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 19 studies comprising 21 cohorts involving 646 participants. Only 11 studies (13 cohorts, 522 participants) had data available for analysis. Of these, five were prospective cohort studies, four were RCTs and two had a type of case-control design. Follow-up time ranged from four to 36 weeks. Studies covered 10 different matrix metalloproteases (MMPs) and two serine proteases (human neutrophil elastase and urokinase-type plasminogen activators). Two studies recorded complete healing as an outcome; other studies recorded partial healing measures. There was clinical and methodological heterogeneity across studies; for example, in the definition of healing, the type of protease and its measurement, the distribution of active and bound protease species, the types of treatment and the reporting of results. Therefore, meta-analysis was not performed. No study had conducted multivariable analyses and all included evidence was of very low certainty because of the lack of adjustment for confounders, the high risk of bias for all studies except one, imprecision around the measures of association and inconsistency in the direction of association. Collectively the research indicated complete uncertainty as to the association between protease activity and VLU healing.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

This review identified very low validity evidence regarding any association between protease activity and VLU healing and there is complete uncertainty regarding the relationship. The review offers information for both future research and systematic review methodology.

What kind of systematic review should I conduct? A proposed typology and guidance for systematic reviewers in the medical and health sciences

BACKGROUND

Systematic reviews have been considered as the pillar on which evidence-based healthcare rests. Systematic review methodology has evolved and been modified over the years to accommodate the range of questions that may arise in the health and medical sciences. This paper explores a concept still rarely considered by novice authors and in the literature: determining the type of systematic review to undertake based on a research question or priority.

RESULTS

Within the framework of the evidence-based healthcare paradigm, defining the question and type of systematic review to conduct is a pivotal first step that will guide the rest of the process and has the potential to impact on other aspects of the evidence-based healthcare cycle (evidence generation, transfer and implementation). It is something that novice reviewers (and others not familiar with the range of review types available) need to take account of but frequently overlook. Our aim is to provide a typology of review types and describe key elements that need to be addressed during question development for each type.

CONCLUSIONS

In this paper a typology is proposed of various systematic review methodologies. The review types are defined and situated with regard to establishing corresponding questions and inclusion criteria. The ultimate objective is to provide clarified guidance for both novice and experienced reviewers and a unified typology with respect to review types.

Social relationships and cognitive decline: a systematic review and meta-analysis of longitudinal cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Although poor social relationships are assumed to contribute to cognitive decline, meta-analytic approaches have not been applied. Individual study results are mixed and difficult to interpret due to heterogeneity in measures of social relationships. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate the relation between poor social relationships and cognitive decline.

METHODS

MEDLINE, Embase and PsycINFO were searched for longitudinal cohort studies examining various aspects of social relationships and cognitive decline in the general population. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were pooled using random effects meta-analysis. Sources of heterogeneity were explored and likelihood of publication bias was assessed. We stratified analyses according to three aspects of social relationships: structural, functional and a combination of these.

RESULTS

We identified 43 articles. Poor social relationships predicted cognitive decline; for structural (19 studies): pooled OR: 1.08 (95% CI: 1.05-1.11); functional (8 studies): pooled OR: 1.15 (95% CI: 1.00-1.32); and combined measures (7 studies): pooled OR: 1.12 (95% CI: 1.01-1.24). Meta-regression and subgroup analyses showed that the heterogeneity could be explained by the type of social relationship measurement and methodological quality of included studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite heterogeneity in study design and measures, our meta-analyses show that multiple aspects of social relationships are associated with cognitive decline. As evidence for publication bias was found, the association might be overestimated and should therefore be interpreted with caution. Future studies are needed to better define the mechanisms underlying these associations. Potential causality of this prognostic association should be examined in future randomized controlled studies.