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Fan Y, Tjiputra J, Muri H, Lombardozzi D, Park CE, Wu S, Keith D. Solar geoengineering can alleviate climate change pressures on crop yields. NATURE FOOD 2021; 2:373-381. [PMID: 37117731 DOI: 10.1038/s43016-021-00278-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/16/2020] [Accepted: 04/16/2021] [Indexed: 04/30/2023]
Abstract
Solar geoengineering (SG) and CO2 emissions reduction can each alleviate anthropogenic climate change, but their impacts on food security are not yet fully understood. Using an advanced crop model within an Earth system model, we analysed the yield responses of six major crops to three SG technologies (SGs) and emissions reduction when they provide roughly the same reduction in radiative forcing and assume the same land use. We found sharply distinct yield responses to changes in radiation, moisture and CO2, but comparable significant cooling benefits for crop yields by all four methods. Overall, global yields increase ~10% under the three SGs and decrease 5% under emissions reduction, the latter primarily due to reduced CO2 fertilization, relative to business as usual by the late twenty-first century. Relative humidity dominates the hydrological effect on yields of rainfed crops, with little contribution from precipitation. The net insolation effect is negligible across all SGs, contrary to previous findings.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuanchao Fan
- NORCE Norwegian Research Centre and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway.
- Center for the Environment, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.
| | - Jerry Tjiputra
- NORCE Norwegian Research Centre and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
| | - Helene Muri
- Industrial Ecology Programme, Department of Energy and Process Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Danica Lombardozzi
- Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Chang-Eui Park
- Department of Environmental Planning, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Shengjun Wu
- Three Gorges Research Center for Ecology and Environment, Chongqing Institute of Green and Intelligent Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chongqing, China
| | - David Keith
- John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
- John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
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Yang H, Dobbie S, Ramirez-Villegas J, Chen B, Qiu S, Ghosh S, Challinor A. South India projected to be susceptible to high future groundnut failure rates for future climate change and geo-engineered scenarios. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 747:141240. [PMID: 32791409 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141240] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/11/2020] [Revised: 07/23/2020] [Accepted: 07/23/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
With an increase in global mean temperature predicted for this century accompanied by more frequent extremes, will farming communities need to brace for increased crop failures and hardship? Solar dimming climate geoengineering has been proposed as a possible solution to combat rising global temperature but what effect will it or other climate related adaptation have on crop failures? We performed a crop modelling study using future climate and geoengineering projections to investigate these questions. Our results indicate that groundnut crop failure rates in Southern India are very sensitive to climate change, and project an increase of approximately a factor of two on average over this century, affecting one out of every two to three years instead of one in every five years. We also project that solar dimming geoengineering will have little impact on reducing these failure rates. In contrast, the projections for the rest of Indian regions show decreasing failure rates of 20-30%. In this research, we indicate why south India is more susceptible than the rest of the country and show that neither Solar dimming geoengineering nor reducing heat or water stress are able to fully counteract the increase in failure rates for this region. Thus our modelling projections indicate the potential for a grountnut crop failure crisis for the South India.
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Affiliation(s)
- Huiyi Yang
- Natural Resources Institute, University of Greenwich, ME4 4TP, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland; ICAS, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
| | - Steven Dobbie
- ICAS, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
| | - Julian Ramirez-Villegas
- ICAS, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland; International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Cali, Colombia; CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, c/o CIAT, Cali, Colombia
| | - Bing Chen
- Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment and processes in the Boundary Layer over the Low-latitude Plateau Region, Department of atmospheric science, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China
| | - Shaojun Qiu
- Institute of agricultural resources and regional planning, Chinese Academy of Agriculture Science, Beijing, China
| | - Sat Ghosh
- Vellore Institute of Technology, Vellore, Tamil Nadu 632 014, India
| | - Andy Challinor
- ICAS, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
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Chen C, van Groenigen KJ, Yang H, Hungate BA, Yang B, Tian Y, Chen J, Dong W, Huang S, Deng A, Jiang Y, Zhang W. Global warming and shifts in cropping systems together reduce China's rice production. GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY 2020. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gfs.2020.100359] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
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Svoboda T, Irvine PJ, Callies D, Sugiyama M. The potential for climate engineering with stratospheric sulfate aerosol injections to reduce climate injustice. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2019. [DOI: 10.1080/17449626.2018.1552180] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/27/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Toby Svoboda
- Department of Philosophy, Fairfield University College of Arts and Sciences, Fairfield, USA
| | - Peter J. Irvine
- School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, USA
| | - Daniel Callies
- Chair of International Political Theory, Goethe University Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
| | - Masahiro Sugiyama
- Policy Alternatives Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
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