Evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model for Simulating Winter Ozone Formation in the Uinta Basin

A single-point modeling approach for the intercomparison and evaluation of ozone dry deposition across chemical transport models (Activity 2 of AQMEII4)

A primary sink of air pollutants and their precursors is dry deposition. Dry deposition estimates differ across chemical transport models, yet an understanding of the model spread is incomplete. Here, we introduce Activity 2 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative Phase 4 (AQMEII4). We examine 18 dry deposition schemes from regional and global chemical transport models as well as standalone models used for impact assessments or process understanding. We configure the schemes as single-point models at eight Northern Hemisphere locations with observed ozone fluxes. Single-point models are driven by a common set of site-specific meteorological and environmental conditions. Five of eight sites have at least 3 years and up to 12 years of ozone fluxes. The interquartile range across models in multiyear mean ozone deposition velocities ranges from a factor of 1.2 to 1.9 annually across sites and tends to be highest during winter compared with summer. No model is within 50 % of observed multiyear averages across all sites and seasons, but some models perform well for some sites and seasons. For the first time, we demonstrate how contributions from depositional pathways vary across models. Models can disagree with respect to relative contributions from the pathways, even when they predict similar deposition velocities, or agree with respect to the relative contributions but predict different deposition velocities. Both stomatal and nonstomatal uptake contribute to the large model spread across sites. Our findings are the beginning of results from AQMEII4 Activity 2, which brings scientists who model air quality and dry deposition together with scientists who measure ozone fluxes to evaluate and improve dry deposition schemes in the chemical transport models used for research, planning, and regulatory purposes.

Wintertime haze and ozone at Dinosaur National Monument

Dinosaur National Monument (DINO) is located near the northeastern edge of the Uinta Basin and often experiences elevated levels of wintertime ground-level ozone. Previous studies have shown that high ozone mixing ratios in the Uinta Basin are driven by elevated levels of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides (NO_x) from regional oil and gas development coupled with temperature inversions and enhanced photochemistry from persistent snow cover. Here, we show that persistent snow cover and temperature inversions, along with abundant ammonia, also lead to wintertime haze in this region. A study was conducted at DINO from November 2018 through May 2020 where ozone, speciated fine and coarse aerosols, inorganic gases, and VOCs were measured. Three National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) ozone exceedances were observed in the first winter, and no exceedances were observed in the second winter. In contrast, elevated levels of particulate matter were observed both winters, with 24-h averaged particle light extinction exceeding 100 Mm^-1. These haze events were dominated by ammonium nitrate, and particulate organics were highly correlated with ammonium nitrate. Ammonium nitrate formation was limited by nitric acid in winter. As such, reductions in regional NO_x emissions should reduce haze levels and improve visibility at DINO in winter. Long-term measurements of particulate matter from nearby Vernal, Utah, suggest that visibility impairment is a persistent issue in the Uinta Basin in winter. From April through October 2019, relatively clean conditions occurred, with average particle extinction of ~10 Mm^-1. During this period, ammonium nitrate concentrations were lower by more than an order of magnitude, and contributions from coarse mass and soil to haze levels increased. VOC markers indicated that the high levels of observed pollutants in winter were likely from local sources related to oil and gas extraction activities.Implications: Elevated ground-level ozone and haze levels were observed at Dinosaur National Monument in winter. Haze episodes were dominated by ammonium nitrate, with 24-h averaged particle light extinction exceeding 100 Mm^-1, reducing visual range near the surface to ~35 km. Despite elevated ammonium nitrate concentrations, additional gas-phase ammonia was available, such that any increase in NO_x emissions in the region is likely to lead to even greater haze levels.

Evidence against Rapid Mercury Oxidation in Photochemical Smog

Mercury pollution is primarily emitted to the atmosphere, and atmospheric transport and chemical processes determine its fate in the environment, but scientific understanding of atmospheric mercury chemistry is clouded in uncertainty. Mercury oxidation by atomic bromine in the Arctic and the upper atmosphere is well established, but less is understood about oxidation pathways in conditions of anthropogenic photochemical smog. Many have observed rapid increases in oxidized mercury under polluted conditions, but it has not been clearly demonstrated that these increases are the result of local mercury oxidation. We measured elemental and oxidized mercury in an area that experienced abundant photochemical activity (ozone >100 ppb) during winter inversion (i.e., cold air pools) conditions that restricted entrainment of air from the oxidized mercury-rich upper atmosphere. Under these conditions, oxidized mercury concentrations decreased day-upon-day, even as ozone and other pollutants increased dramatically. A box model that incorporated rapid kinetics for reactions of elemental mercury with ozone and OH radical overestimated observed oxidized mercury, while incorporation of slower, more widely accepted reaction rates did not. Our results show that rapid gas-phase mercury oxidation by ozone and OH in photochemical smog is unlikely.

Declining methane emissions and steady, high leakage rates observed over multiple years in a western US oil/gas production basin

Methane, a potent greenhouse gas, is the main component of natural gas. Previous research has identified considerable methane emissions associated with oil and gas production, but estimates of emission trends have been inconsistent, in part due to limited in-situ methane observations spanning multiple years in oil/gas production regions. Here we present a unique analysis of one of the longest-running datasets of in-situ methane observations from an oil/gas production region in Utah’s Uinta Basin. The observations indicate Uinta methane emissions approximately halved between 2015 and 2020, along with declining gas production. As a percentage of gas production, however, emissions remained steady over the same years, at ~ 6–8%, among the highest in the U.S. Addressing methane leaks and recovering more of the economically valuable natural gas is critical, as the U.S. seeks to address climate change through aggressive greenhouse emission reductions.

Technical note: AQMEII4 Activity 1: evaluation of wet and dry deposition schemes as an integral part of regional-scale air quality models

We present in this technical note the research protocol for phase 4 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII4). This research initiative is divided into two activities, collectively having three goals: (i) to define the current state of the science with respect to representations of wet and especially dry deposition in regional models, (ii) to quantify the extent to which different dry deposition parameterizations influence retrospective air pollutant concentration and flux predictions, and (iii) to identify, through the use of a common set of detailed diagnostics, sensitivity simulations, model evaluation, and reduction of input uncertainty, the specific causes for the current range of these predictions. Activity 1 is dedicated to the diagnostic evaluation of wet and dry deposition processes in regional air quality models (described in this paper), and Activity 2 to the evaluation of dry deposition point models against ozone flux measurements at multiple towers with multiyear observations (to be described in future submissions as part of the special issue on AQMEII4). The scope of this paper is to present the scientific protocols for Activity 1, as well as to summarize the technical information associated with the different dry deposition approaches used by the participating research groups of AQMEII4. In addition to describing all common aspects and data used for this multi-model evaluation activity, most importantly, we present the strategy devised to allow a common process-level comparison of dry deposition obtained from models using sometimes very different dry deposition schemes. The strategy is based on adding detailed diagnostics to the algorithms used in the dry deposition modules of existing regional air quality models, in particular archiving diagnostics specific to land use-land cover (LULC) and creating standardized LULC categories to facilitate cross-comparison of LULC-specific dry deposition parameters and processes, as well as archiving effective conductance and effective flux as means for comparing the relative influence of different pathways towards the net or total dry deposition. This new approach, along with an analysis of precipitation and wet deposition fields, will provide an unprecedented process-oriented comparison of deposition in regional air quality models. Examples of how specific dry deposition schemes used in participating models have been reduced to the common set of comparable diagnostics defined for AQMEII4 are also presented.

Establishing the Suitability of the Model for Prediction Across Scales for Global Retrospective Air Quality Modeling

The U.S. EPA is leveraging recent advances in meteorological modeling to construct an air quality modeling system to allow consistency from global to local scales. The Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere (MPAS-A or MPAS) has been developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) as a global complement to the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). Patterned after a regional coupled system with WRF, the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system has been coupled within MPAS to explore global-to-local chemical transport modeling. Several options were implemented into MPAS for retrospective applications. Nudging-based data assimilation was added to support continuous simulations of past weather to minimize error growth that exists with a weather forecast configuration. The Pleim-Xiu land-surface model, the Asymmetric Convective Model 2 boundary layer scheme, and the Pleim surface layer scheme were added as the preferred options for retrospective air quality applications with WRF. Annual simulations were conducted using this EPA-enhanced MPAS configuration on two different mesh structures and compared against WRF. MPAS generally compares well with WRF over the conterminous United States. Errors in MPAS surface meteorology are comparable to WRF throughout the year. Precipitation statistics indicate MPAS performs slightly better than WRF. Solar radiation in MPAS is higher than WRF and measurements, suggesting fewer clouds in MPAS than WRF. Upper-air meteorology is well-simulated by MPAS, but errors are slightly higher than WRF. These comparisons lend confidence to use MPAS for retrospective air quality modeling and suggest ways it can be further improved in the future.

High Ethylene and Propylene in an Area Dominated by Oil Production

We measured the spatial distribution and composition of ozone-forming hydrocarbons, alcohols, and carbonyls in Utah’s Uinta Basin during the winter months of 2019 and 2020. The Uinta Basin contains about 10,000 producing oil and gas wells. Snow cover and the region’s unique topography (i.e., a large basin entirely surrounded by mountains) promote strong, multi-day temperature inversion episodes that concentrate pollution and lead to wintertime ozone production. Indeed, organic compound concentrations were about eight times higher during inversion episodes than during snow-free springtime conditions. We examined spatial associations between wintertime concentrations of organics and oil and gas sources in the region, and we found that concentrations of highly reactive alkenes were higher in areas with dense oil production than in areas with dense gas production. Total alkene+acetylene concentrations were 267 (42, 1146; lower and upper 95% confidence limits) µg m−3 at locations with 340 or more producing oil wells within 10 km (i.e., 75th percentile) versus 12 (9, 23) µg m−3 at locations with 15 or fewer oil wells (i.e., 25th percentile). Twenty-eight percent of the potential for organic compounds to produce ozone was due to alkenes in areas with dense oil production. Spatial correlations and organic compound ratios indicated that the most likely source of excess alkenes in oil-producing areas was natural gas-fueled engines, especially lean-burning (i.e., high air:fuel ratio) artificial lift engines.

Human Health and Economic Costs of Air Pollution in Utah: An Expert Assessment

Air pollution causes more damage to health and economy than previously understood, contributing to approximately one in six deaths globally. However, pollution reduction policies remain controversial even when proven effective and cost negative, partially because of misunderstanding and growing mistrust in science. We used an expert assessment to bridge these research–policy divides in the State of Utah, USA, combining quantitative estimates from 23 local researchers and specialists on the human health and economic costs of air pollution. Experts estimated that air pollution in Utah causes 2480 to 8000 premature deaths annually (90% confidence interval) and decreases the median life expectancy by 1.1 to 3.6 years. Economic costs of air pollution in Utah totaled $0.75 to $3.3 billion annually, up to 1.7% of the state’s gross domestic product. Though these results were generally in line with available estimates from downscaled national studies, they were met with surprise in the state legislature, where there had been an almost complete absence of quantitative health and economic cost estimates. We discuss the legislative and personal responses of Utah policy makers to these results and present a framework for increasing the assimilation of data into decision making via regional expert assessment. In conclusion, combining quantitative assessments from local experts is a responsive and cost-effective tool to increase trust and information uptake during time-sensitive policy windows.

Impact of U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Emission Increases on Surface Ozone Is Most Pronounced in the Central United States

Observations of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from a surface sampling network and simulation results from the EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy for Atmospheric Chemistry) model were analyzed to assess the impact of increased emissions of VOCs and nitrogen oxides from U.S. oil and natural gas (O&NG) sources on air quality. In the first step, the VOC observations were used to optimize the magnitude and distribution of atmospheric ethane and higher-alkane VOC emissions in the model inventory for the base year 2009. Observation-based increases of the emissions of VOCs and NO_x stemming from U.S. oil and natural gas (O&NG) sources during 2009-2014 were then added to the model, and a set of sensitivity runs was conducted for assessing the influence of the increased emissions on summer surface ozone levels. For the year 2014, the added O&NG emissions are predicted to affect surface ozone across a large geographical scale in the United States. These emissions are responsible for an increased number of days when the averaged 8-h ozone values exceed 70 ppb, with the highest sensitivity being in the central and midwestern United States, where most of the O&NG growth has occurred. These findings demonstrate that O&NG emissions significantly affect the air quality across most of the United States, can regionally offset reductions of ozone precursor emissions made in other sectors, and can have a determining influence on a region's ability to meet National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) obligations for ozone.

Dry Deposition of Ozone over Land: Processes, Measurement, and Modeling

Dry deposition of ozone is an important sink of ozone in near surface air. When dry deposition occurs through plant stomata, ozone can injure the plant, altering water and carbon cycling and reducing crop yields. Quantifying both stomatal and nonstomatal uptake accurately is relevant for understanding ozone's impact on human health as an air pollutant and on climate as a potent short-lived greenhouse gas and primary control on the removal of several reactive greenhouse gases and air pollutants. Robust ozone dry deposition estimates require knowledge of the relative importance of individual deposition pathways, but spatiotemporal variability in nonstomatal deposition is poorly understood. Here we integrate understanding of ozone deposition processes by synthesizing research from fields such as atmospheric chemistry, ecology, and meteorology. We critically review methods for measurements and modeling, highlighting the empiricism that underpins modeling and thus the interpretation of observations. Our unprecedented synthesis of knowledge on deposition pathways, particularly soil and leaf cuticles, reveals process understanding not yet included in widely-used models. If coordinated with short-term field intensives, laboratory studies, and mechanistic modeling, measurements from a few long-term sites would bridge the molecular to ecosystem scales necessary to establish the relative importance of individual deposition pathways and the extent to which they vary in space and time. Our recommended approaches seek to close knowledge gaps that currently limit quantifying the impact of ozone dry deposition on air quality, ecosystems, and climate.

Assessing Human Health PM2.5 and Ozone Impacts from U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Sector Emissions in 2025

Incomplete information regarding emissions from oil and natural gas production has historically made it challenging to characterize the air quality or air pollution-related health impacts for this sector in the United States. Using an emissions inventory for the oil and natural gas sector that reflects information regarding the level and distribution of PM_2.5 and ozone precursor emissions, we simulate annual mean PM_2.5 and summer season average daily 8 h maximum ozone concentrations with the Comprehensive Air-Quality Model with extensions (CAMx). We quantify the incidence and economic value of PM_2.5 and ozone health related effects using the environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP). We find that ambient concentrations of PM_2.5 and ozone, and associated health impacts, are highest in a handful of states including Colorado, Pennsylvania, Texas and West Virginia. On a per-ton basis, the benefits of reducing PM_2.5 precursor emissions from this sector vary by pollutant species, and range from between $6,300 and $320,000, while the value of reducing ozone precursors ranges from $500 to $8,200 in the year 2025 (2015$).