Characterizing CO and NO y Sources and Relative Ambient Ratios in the Baltimore Area Using Ambient Measurements and Source Attribution Modeling

Quantifying the contributions of meteorology, emissions, and transport to ground-level ozone in the Pearl River Delta, China

Ozone pollution presents a growing air quality threat in urban agglomerations in China. It remains challenge to distinguish the roles of emissions of precursors, chemical production and transportations in shaping the ground-level ozone trends, largely due to complicated interactions among these 3 major processes. This study elucidates the formation factors of ozone pollution and categorizes them into local emissions (anthropogenic and biogenic emissions), transport (precursor transport and direct transport from various regions), and meteorology. Particularly, we attribute meteorology, which affects biogenic emissions and chemical formation as well as transportation, to a perturbation term with fluctuating ranges. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model was utilized to implement this framework, using the Pearl River Delta region as a case study, to simulate a severe ozone pollution episode in autumn 2019 that affected the entire country. Our findings demonstrate that the average impact of meteorological conditions changed consistently with the variation of ozone pollution levels, indicating that meteorological conditions can exert significant control over the degree of ozone pollution. As the maximum daily 8-hour average (MDA8) ozone concentrations increased from 20 % below to 30 % above the National Ambient Air Quality Standard II, contributions from emissions and precursor transport were enhanced. Concurrently, direct transport within Guangdong province rose from 13.8 % to 22.7 %, underscoring the importance of regional joint prevention and control measures under adverse weather conditions. Regarding biogenic emissions and precursor transport that cannot be directly controlled, we found that their contributions were generally greater in urban areas with high nitrogen oxides (NOx) levels, primarily due to the stronger atmospheric oxidation capacity facilitating ozone formation. Our results indicate that not only local anthropogenic emissions can be controlled in urban areas, but also the impacts of local biogenic emissions and precursor transport can be potentially regulated through reducing atmospheric oxidation capacity.

Photochemical model assessment of single source NO2 and O3 plumes using field study data

Single source contribution to ambient O3 and PM2.5 has been estimated with photochemical grid models to support policy demonstrations for National Ambient Air Quality Standards, regional haze, and permit related programs. Limited field data exists to evaluate model representation of the spatial extent and chemical composition of plumes emitted by specific facilities. New tropospheric column measurements of NO2 and in-plume chemical measurements downwind of specific facilities allows for photochemical model evaluation of downwind plume extent, grid resolution impacts on plume concentration gradients, and source attribution methods. Here, photochemical models were applied with source sensitivity and source apportionment approaches to differentiate single source impacts on NO2 and O3 and compare with field study measurements. Source sensitivity approaches (e.g., brute-force difference method and decoupled direct method (DDM)) captured the spatial extent of NO2 plumes downwind of three facilities and the transition of near-source O3 titration to downwind production. Source apportionment approaches showed variability in terms of attributing the spatial extent of NO2 plumes and downwind O3 production. Each of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) source apportionment options predicted large O3 contribution from a large industrial facility in the flight transects nearest the facility when measurements and source sensitivity approaches suggest titration was outpacing production. In general, CMAQ DDM tends to attribute more O3 to boundary inflow and less to within-domain NOX and VOC sources compared to CMAQ source apportionment. The photochemical modeling system was able to capture single source plumes using 1 to 12 km grid resolution with best representation of plume extent and magnitude at the finer resolutions. When modeled at 1 to 12 km grid resolution, primary and secondary PM2.5 impacts were highest at the source location and decrease as distance increases downwind. The use of coarser grid resolution for single source attribution resulted in predicted impacts highest near the source but lower peak source specific concentrations compared to finer grid resolution simulations because impacts were spread out over a larger area.

Long-term variability of trace gases over the Indian Western Himalayan Region

The four-year continuous measurements of CO, NOx, NH₃, SO_2, and O₃ were carried at a high altitude site (32.12°N, 76.56°E at 1347 m AMSL) of the Indian Western Himalayan area to study the mixing ratios of these gases for understanding the changing trends of these trace gases over the region. Each of these trace gases showed significant daily and monthly variabilities. The highest variability was recorded in the monthly mean values of O₃ as it varied from 10 to 63 ppb during the study period. All the trace gases except CO showed maximum variability in the pre-monsoon seasons due to the strong advection and vertical circulation of air masses at the site. The seasonal mean maxima of CO were recorded during the monsoon season, while the mean maxima of NH₃ were recorded during the post-monsoon seasons. The meteorological parameters have been found to influence the mixing ratios of trace gases. The least variability in the mean seasonal mixing ratios of SO₂ during the study period indicated the constant point source of SO₂ near the site. The trajectories analysis revealed that the area receives maximum air masses from the southeast to the west directions where a number of the coal-based thermal power plants, industries, cement plants, and agricultural fields are also located. The influence of valley-to-mountain circulations was also observed at the site, resulting in the transport of pollutant-rich air masses from local and distant sources to the site. A comparison of the mixing ratios of different trace gases obtained in the present study is also made with the values reported for other high altitude stations in the world.

Evaluation of 15 years of modeled atmospheric oxidized nitrogen compounds across the contiguous United States

Atmospheric nitrogen oxide and nitrogen dioxide (NO + NO2, together termed as NO X ) estimates from annual photochemical simulations for years 2002-2016 are compared to surface network measurements of NO X and total gas-phase-oxidized reactive nitrogen (NO Y ) to evaluate the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system performance by U.S. region, season, and time of day. In addition, aircraft measurements from 2011 Deriving Information on Surface Conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality are used to evaluate how emissions, chemical mechanism, and measurement uncertainty each contribute to the overall model performance. We show distinct seasonal and time-of-day patterns in NO X performance. Summertime NO X is overpredicted with bimodal peaks in bias during early morning and evening hours and persisting overnight. The summertime morning NO X bias dropped from between 28% and 57% for earlier years (2002-2012) to between -2% and 7% for later years (2013-2016). Summer daytime NO X tends to be unbiased or underpredicted. In winter, the evening NO X overpredictions remain, but NO X is unbiased or underpredicted overnight, in the morning, and during the day. NO X overpredictions are most pronounced in the Midwestern and Southern United States with Western regions having more of a tendency toward model underpredictions of NO X . Modeled NO X performance has improved substantially over time, reflecting updates to the emission inputs and the CMAQ air quality model. Model performance improvements are largest for years simulated with CMAQv5.1 or later and for emission inventory years 2014 and later, coinciding with reduced onroad NO X emissions from vehicles with newer emission control technologies and improved treatment of chemistry, deposition, and vertical mixing in CMAQ. Our findings suggest that emissions temporalization of specific mobile source sectors have a small impact on model performance, while chemistry updates improve predictions of NO Y but do not improve summertime NO X bias in the Baltimore/DC area. Sensitivity runs performed for different locations across the country suggest that the improvement in summer NO X performance can be attributed to updates in vertical mixing incorporated in CMAQv5.1.

Urban Emissions of Nitrogen Oxides, Carbon Monoxide, and Methane Determined from Ground-Based Measurements in Philadelphia

Nitrogen oxides (NO_X) and methane impact air quality through the promotion of ozone formation, and methane is also a strong greenhouse gas. Despite the importance of these pollutants, emissions in urban areas are poorly quantified. We present measurements of NO_X, CH₄, CO, and CO₂ made at Drexel University in Philadelphia along with NO_X and CO observations at two roadside monitors. Because CO₂ concentrations in the winter result almost entirely from combustion with negligible influence from photosynthesis and respiration, we are able to infer fleet-averaged fuel-based emission factors (EFs) for NO_X and CO, similar in some ways to how EFs are determined from tunnel studies. Comparison of the inferred NO_X and CO fuel-based EF to the National Emissions Inventory (NEI) suggests errors in NEI emissions of either NO_X, CO, or both. From the measurements of CH₄ and CO₂, which are not emitted by the same sources, we infer the ratio of CH₄ emissions (from leaks in the natural gas infrastructure) to CO₂ emissions (from fossil fuel combustion) in Philadelphia. Comparison of the CH₄/CO₂ emission ratios to emission inventories from the Environmental Protection Agency suggests underestimates in CH₄ emissions by almost a factor of 4. These results demonstrate the need for the addition of long-term observations of CH₄ and CO₂ to existing monitoring networks in urban areas to better constrain emissions and complement existing measurements of NO_X and CO.

Improving Estimates of PM2.5 Concentration and Chemical Composition by Application of High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL) and Creating Aerosol Types from Chemistry (CATCH) Algorithm

Improved characterization of ambient PM2.5 mass concentration and chemical speciation is a topic of interest in air quality and climate sciences. Over the past decades, considerable efforts have been made to improve ground-level PM2.5 using remotely sensed data. Here we present two new approaches for estimating atmospheric PM2.5 and chemical composition based on the High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL)-retrieved aerosol extinction values and types and Creating Aerosol Types from Chemistry (CATCH)-derived aerosol chemical composition. The first methodology (CMAQ-HSRL-CH) improves EPA's Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) predictions by applying variable scaling factors derived using remotely-sensed information about aerosol vertical distribution and types and the CATCH algorithm. The second methodology (HSRL-CH) does not require regional model runs and can provide atmospheric PM2.5 mass concentration and chemical speciation using only the remotely sensed data and the CATCH algorithm. The resulting PM2.5 concentrations and chemical speciation derived for NASA DISCOVER-AQ (Deriving Information on Surface Conditions from COlumn and VERtically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality) Baltimore-Washington, D.C. Corridor (BWC) Campaign (2011) are compared to surface measurements from EPA's Air Quality Systems (AQS) network. The analysis shows that the CMAQ-HSRL-CH method leads to considerable improvement of CMAQ's predicted PM2.5 concentrations (R2 value increased from 0.37 to 0.63, the root mean square error (RMSE) was reduced from 11.9 to 7.2 μg m-3, and the normalized mean bias (NMB) was lowered from -46.0 to 4.6%). The HSRL-CH method showed statistics (R2=0.75, RMSE=8.6 μgm-3, and NMB=24.0%), which were better than the CMAQ prediction of PM2.5 alone and analogous to CMAQ-HSRL-CH. In addition to mass concentration, HSRL-CH can also provide aerosol chemical composition without specific model simulations. We expect that the HSRL-CH method will be able to make reliable estimates of PM2.5 concentration and chemical composition where HSRL data are available.

Variability in Observation-based Onroad Emission Constraints from a Near-road Environment

This study uses Las Vegas near-road measurements of carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) to test the consistency of onroad emission constraint methodologies. We derive commonly used CO to NOx ratios (ΔCO:ΔNOx) from cross-road gradients and from linear regression using ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and orthogonal regression. The CO to NOx ratios are used to infer NOx emission adjustments for a priori emissions estimates from EPA's MOtor Vehicle Emissions Simulator (MOVES) model assuming unbiased CO. The assumption of unbiased CO emissions may not be appropriate in many circumstances but was implemented in this analysis to illustrate the range of NOx scaling factors that can be inferred based on choice of methods and monitor distance alone. For the nearest road estimates (25m), the cross-road gradient and ordinary least squares (OLS) agree with each other and are not statistically different from the MOVES-based emission estimate while ΔCO:ΔNOx from orthogonal regression is significantly higher than the emitted ratio from MOVES. Using further downwind measurements (i.e., 115m and 300m) increases OLS and orthogonal regression estimates of ΔCO:ΔNOx but not cross-road gradient ΔCO:ΔNOx. The inferred NOx emissions depend on the observation-based method, as well as the distance of the measurements from the roadway and can suggest either that MOVES NOx emissions are unbiased or that they should be adjusted downward by between 10% and 47%. The sensitivity of observation-based ΔCO:ΔNOx estimates to the selected monitor location and to the calculation method characterize the inherent uncertainty of these methods that cannot be derived from traditional standard-error based uncertainty metrics.

Reflecting on progress since the 2005 NARSTO emissions inventory report

Emission inventories are the foundation for cost-effective air quality management activities. In 2005, a report by the public/private partnership North American Research Strategy for Tropospheric Ozone (NARSTO) evaluated the strengths and weaknesses of North American emissions inventories and made recommendations for improving their effectiveness. This paper reviews the recommendation areas and briefly discusses what has been addressed, what remains unchanged, and new questions that have arisen. The findings reveal that all emissions inventory improvement areas identified by the 2005 NARSTO publication have been explored and implemented to some degree. The U.S. National Emissions Inventory has become more detailed and has incorporated new research into previously under-characterized sources such as fine particles and biomass burning. Additionally, it is now easier to access the emissions inventory and the documentation of the inventory via the internet. However, many emissions-related research needs exist, on topics such as emission estimation methods, speciation, scalable emission factor development, incorporation of new emission measurement techniques, estimation of uncertainty, top-down verification, and analysis of uncharacterized sources. A common theme throughout this retrospective summary is the need for increased coordination among stakeholders. Researchers and inventory developers must work together to ensure that planned emissions research and new findings can be used to update the emissions inventory. To continue to address emissions inventory challenges, industry, the scientific community, and government agencies need to continue to leverage resources and collaborate as often as possible. As evidenced by the progress noted, continued investment in and coordination of emissions inventory activities will provide dividends to air quality management programs across the country, continent, and world. Implications: In 2005, a report by the public/private partnership North American Research Strategy for Tropospheric Ozone (NARSTO) evaluated the strengths and weaknesses of North American air pollution emissions inventories. This paper reviews the eight recommendation areas and briefly discusses what has been addressed, what remains unchanged, and new questions that have arisen. Although progress has been made, many opportunities exist for the scientific agencies, industry, and government agencies to leverage resources and collaborate to continue improving emissions inventories.

Multipollutant modeling of ozone, reactive nitrogen and HAPs across the continental US with CMAQ-CB6

The accuracy of atmospheric chemical mechanisms used in air quality models is critical for robustly predicting the production and decay of air pollutants and thus to develop strategies to reduce concentrations that are above levels harmful to humans and ecosystems. In this study we document, evaluate and analyze the implementation of the CB6r3 chemical mechanism used in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, including changes that have been to the standard version, and demonstrate the impact of this update on predictions. In general, CB6r3 slightly improves the predictions of ozone and oxides of nitrogen, while providing more consistency with current scientific understanding. Nitric acid is generally overpredicted in both winter and summer, and ongoing work continues to address this overprediction and update other aspects of the mechanism.