Increased incidence of malignancies in Sweden after the Chernobyl accident--a promoting effect?

Cancer incidence in a male adult population in relation to estimated protracted colon dose - A nested case control study in Northern Sweden after the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident

INTRODUCTION

Uncertainty in the dose-response of low dose radiation raised concern of an increased cancer incidence in Sweden after the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) accident.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A closed cohort was created of all males ≥18 years of age living in the Northern Sweden in 1986. In total 826,400 individuals were enrolled including 40,874 hunters. A nested case-control design was used with five controls randomly selected for each cancer case matched on year of diagnosis and year of birth. Individual absorbed colon dose was calculated 1986 to 2015. Allowing for a 5-year latency period Hazard Ratios (HR) per mGy with 95% Confidence Intervals (95% CI) were calculated in a conditional logistic regression adjusted by rural/non-rural living, length of education and pre-Chernobyl cancer incidence 1980 to 1985. A total of 127,109 cancer cases occurred from 1 January 1991 to 31 December 2015. Cancer was classified in: 1) Organ-specific (stomach, colon, liver, lung, prostate, urinary bladder, thyroid and leukaemia), 2) Other and 3) Not previously associated to ionizing radiation.

RESULTS

The average colon dose in cases was 1.77 mGy compared to controls 1.73 mGy. Hunters average colon dose was 2.32 mGy. Organ-specific cancers showed the highest HR per mGy both in the full cohort, adj HR 1.019 (1.014-1.024) and the hunter subcohort, adj HR 1.014 (1.001-1.027) during follow-up 1991 to 2015. Other cancer and Not previously associated with ionizing radiation showed lower HR per mGy. Therefore, the adj HR per mGy for Total cancer, 1.013 (1.009-1.017) was explained by Organ-specific cancer. Increased adj HR per mGy was seen in stomach, colon and prostate cancer, respectively in the full cohort and lung cancer in hunters.

CONCLUSIONS

Some cancer sites previously associated with ionizing radiation showed a positive adjusted HR per mGy both in the full cohort and in the hunter subcohort.

Long-Term Consequences of the Chernobyl Radioactive Fallout: An Exploration of the Aggregate Data

Policy Points Policymakers should invest more on researching the long-term health effects of low-ionizing radiation exposure, as we are far from reaching a consensus on a topic that is of enormous importance for public health and safety. Public policies such as those limiting the import of contaminated food from areas hit by a radioactive disaster or those regulating the resident population's access to such areas should follow a precautionary approach. Neoplasm diagnosis and medical care should be designed in order to take into account the possible role of long-term, low-dose radiation exposure. Health care policies should provide effective screening and prevention strategies with a specific focus on the regions that were hit most severely by the Chernobyl nuclear fallout. Health care expenditure should be targeted, taking into account the geographical dispersion of the fallout in order to attenuate its possible effect on neoplasm incidence.

CONTEXT

This study investigates the association between the radioactive ¹³⁷ Cesium fallout originated by the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear accident and dispersed over Western Europe, as a result of a combination of radioactive cloud passage days and rainy days over a 10-day period, and long-term health patterns and related costs. Since the half-life of ¹³⁷ Cesium is 30.17 years, part of the radioactivity in the affected regions is still present today, and it is usually still detected in the food chain, although at lower concentration levels.

METHODS

We match longitudinal data on neoplasm incidence over the time span 2000-2013 in a number of European regions not immediately adjacent to Chernobyl with the randomly distributed levels of cesium deposition after the nuclear disaster in order to assess whether we can detect an association with the long-term health effects on the European population through a random effects model.

FINDINGS

Considering 3 levels of fallout deposition-low, medium, and high-hospital discharges after treatment for neoplasms are, respectively, 0.36, 0.44, and 0.98 discharges over 100 inhabitants higher compared to regions with no fallout, with the population average being around 1.7 hospital discharges by neoplasms over 100 inhabitants. We checked the robustness of our findings to a number of tests including a placebo simulation and different model specifications.

CONCLUSIONS

Radioactive fallout is positively associated with a higher incidence of hospital discharges after treatment for neoplasms almost 30 years after its release, with larger effects in regions where the radioactivity was more intense. Our estimates are comparable to the findings of the largest-scale study on the long-term health effects of continuous low levels of radiation exposure among workers in the nuclear industry and suggest that more research is needed on this topic, given its enormous importance for public health and safety.

Total cancer incidence in relation to 137Cs fallout in the most contaminated counties in Sweden after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident: a register-based study

OBJECTIVES

To determine the total cancer incidence in relation to a 5-year exposure to caesium-137 (¹³⁷Cs) from the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident.

METHODS

A closed cohort was defined as all individuals living in the three most contaminated counties in mid-Sweden in 1986. Fallout of ¹³⁷Cs was retrieved as a digital map from the Geological Survey of Sweden, demographic data from Statistics Sweden, and cancer diagnosis from the National Board of Health and Welfare. Individuals were assigned an annual ¹³⁷Cs exposure based on their place of residence (1986-1990), from which 5-year cumulative ¹³⁷Cs exposures were calculated, accounting for the physical decay of ¹³⁷Cs and changing residencies. HRs were adjusted for age, sex, rural/non-rural residence and pre-Chernobyl total cancer incidence.

RESULTS

The 734 537 people identified were categorised by exposure: the first quartile was low exposure (0.0-45.4 kBq/m²), the second and third quartiles were intermediate exposure (45.41-118.8 kBq/m²), and the fourth quartile was the highest exposure (118.81-564.71 kBq/m²). Between 1991 and 2010, 82 495 cancer cases were registered in the 3 counties. Adjusted HRs (95% CI) were 1.03 (1.01 to 1.05) for intermediate exposure and 1.05 (1.03 to 1.07) for the highest exposure compared to the reference exposure.

CONCLUSIONS

We found a small overall exposure-response pattern of the total cancer incidence related to ¹³⁷Cs after adjustment for age, sex, rural residence and pre-Chernobyl cancer incidence.

Cancer incidence in northern Sweden before and after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident

Sweden received about 5 % of the total release of (137)Cs from the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in 1986. The distribution of the fallout mainly affected northern Sweden, where some parts of the population could have received an estimated annual effective dose of 1-2 mSv per year. It is disputed whether an increased incidence of cancer can be detected in epidemiological studies after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident outside the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. In the present paper, a possible exposure-response pattern between deposition of (137)Cs and cancer incidence after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident was investigated in the nine northernmost counties of Sweden (2.2 million inhabitants in 1986). The activity of (137)Cs from the fallout maps at 1986 was used as a proxy for the received dose of ionizing radiation. Diagnoses of cancer (ICD-7 code 140-209) from 1980 to 2009 were received from the Swedish Cancer Registry (273,222 cases). Age-adjusted incidence rate ratios, stratified by gender, were calculated with Poisson regression in two closed cohorts of the population in the nine counties 1980 and 1986, respectively. The follow-up periods were 1980-1985 and 1986-2009, respectively. The average surface-weighted deposition of (137)Cs at three geographical levels; county (n = 9), municipality (n = 95) and parish level (n = 612) was applied for the two cohorts to study the pre- and the post-Chernobyl periods separately. To analyze time trends, the age-standardized total cancer incidence was calculated for the general Swedish population and the population in the nine counties. Joinpoint regression was used to compare the average annual percent change in the general population and the study population within each gender. No obvious exposure-response pattern was seen in the age-adjusted total cancer incidence rate ratios. A spurious association between fallout and cancer incidence was present, where areas with the lowest incidence of cancer before the accident coincidentally had the lowest fallout of (137)Cs. Increasing the geographical resolution of exposure from nine county averages to 612 parish averages resulted in a two to three times higher value of variance in the regression model. There was a secular trend with an increase in age-standardized incidence of cancer in both genders from 1980 to 2009, but significant only in females. This trend was stronger and statistically significant for both genders in the general Swedish population compared to the nine counties. In conclusion, using both high quality cancer registry data and high resolution exposure maps of (137)Cs deposition, it was not possible to distinguish an effect of (137)Cs on cancer incidence after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in Sweden.

Chernobyl fallout and cancer incidence in Finland

Twenty-five years have passed since the Chernobyl accident, but its health consequences remain to be well established. Finland was one of the most heavily affected countries by the radioactive fallout outside the former Soviet Union. We analyzed the relation of the estimated external radiation exposure from the fallout to cancer incidence in Finland in 1988-2007. The study cohort comprised all ∼ 3.8 million Finns who had lived in the same dwelling for 12 months following the accident (May 1986-April 1987). Radiation exposure was estimated using data from an extensive mobile dose rate survey. Cancer incidence data were obtained for the cohort divided into four exposure categories (the lowest with the first-year committed dose <0.1 mSv and the highest ≥ 0.5 mSv) allowing for a latency of 5 years for leukemia and thyroid cancer, and 10 years for other cancers. Of the eight predefined cancer sites regarded as radiation-related from earlier studies, only colon cancer among women showed an association with exposure from fallout [excess rate ratio per increment in exposure category 0.06, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.02-0.11]. No such effect was observed for men, or other cancer sites. Our analysis of a large cohort over two decades did not reveal an increase in cancer incidence following the Chernobyl accident, with the possible exception of colon cancer among women. The largely null findings are consistent with extrapolation from previous studies suggesting that the effect is likely to remain too small to be empirically detectable and of little public health impact.

Fallout from the Chernobyl accident and overall cancer incidence in Finland

AIM

We studied whether incidence of all cancer sites combined was associated with the radiation exposure due to fallout from the Chernobyl accident in Finland. An emphasis was on the first decade after the accident to assess the suggested "promotion effect".

METHODS

The segment of Finnish population with a stable residence in the first post-Chernobyl year (2 million people) was studied. The analyses were based on a 250m × 250m grid squares covering all of Finland and all cancer cases except cancers of the breast, prostate and lung. Cancer incidence in four exposure areas (based on first-year dose due to external exposure <0.1 mSv, 0.1-1.3, 0.3-0.5, or ≥ 0.5 mSv) was compared before the Chernobyl accident (1981-1985) and after it (1988-2007) taking into account cancer incidence trends for a longer period prior to the accident (since 1966).

RESULTS

There were no systematic differences in the cancer incidence in relation to radiation exposure in any calendar period, or any subgroup by sex or age at accident.

CONCLUSION

The current large and comprehensive cohort analysis of the relatively low levels of the Chernobyl fallout in Finland did not observe a cancer promotion effect.

Risk of malignancies in relation to terrestrial gamma radiation in a Swedish population cohort

Results of epidemiological studies on terrestrial gamma radiation (TGR) and related malignancies have not been consistent. This study is a thorough examination of this relationship. Records on all individuals living in two Swedish counties in 1973, along with their annual dwelling coordinates during the 28-year follow-up period, were retrieved from the National Archives and Statistics Sweden. We used Geographical Information System (GIS) to match the individuals' dwelling coordinates annually to the TGR given in 200×200 m grids produced by the Geological Survey of Sweden. Cases of malignancies and deaths were retrieved from the Swedish Cancer Register. During the follow-up period 61,503 incident cases were included in the analyses and in total 11 million person-years were recorded. Cox regression was used both in a linear continuous model and analyses of six exposure categories. Adjustments were made for sex, age, and population density. The hazard ratio (HR) per 100 nanoGray/hour (nGy/h) was significantly increased for total malignancies and for several sites; however, contrary to expectations, an obvious and anticipated linear exposure-response relationship could not be identified. With the lowest exposure category (0-60 nGy/h) as reference, a statistically significantly increased HR for total malignancies was seen in all exposure categories, except in the highest category 96-366 nGy/h. For breast cancer, thyroid cancer and leukaemia an obvious exposure-response could not be seen.

Parish classification or dwelling coordinate for exposure assessment in environmental epidemiology - a comparative study using Geographical Information System

BACKGROUND

Two previous epidemiological studies on the incidence of total malignancies in Sweden after the Chernobyl accident have shown consistently increased risks. The first study used an analogue map on (137)Cs from 1986 to classify individuals in terms of the parish they lived in. In the second study, dwelling coordinates were matched to a digital map from the year 2000 to assess the individual exposure. To establish the accuracy of the exposure assessment using the larger unit of parish, instead of coordinates, we decided to compare the methods.

METHODS

On the analogue map eleven isolines on the deposition of (137)Cs (kBq/m(2)) were used to classify all individuals in each of the 450 parishes. Using the digital map, by contrast, each dwelling with its inhabitants could be matched to (137)Cs deposition at a coordinate level. A population-weighted average of (137)Cs deposition was calculated for each parish. In total, 1,126,960 individuals and 450 parishes were included and analysed into six different exposure categories.

RESULTS

Using the new parish exposure index, 111 out of the 450 parishes were reclassified as a result of the increased resolution of the digital map (86 parishes) or unequal distribution of the population compared with the deposition (25 parishes). Seventy-five per cent of the parishes remained in the same exposure category as on the analogue map.

CONCLUSION

Using dwelling coordinates for exposure assessment may not always be superior to parish classification. Nor is it always a cost-effective way of estimating the exposure, especially if the exposure in a parish is relatively homogenous or if parishes can be merged into broader categories with little intra-parish difference.

Measurements and comparisons of gamma radiation doses in a high and a low (137)Cs deposition area in Sweden

Sweden is one of the countries affected by the Chernobyl fallout. The aim of the present study was to investigate the average radiation dose to people living in a high-deposition area (the parish of Hille) in Sweden for comparison with dose rates previously measured in a low-deposition area in western Sweden. Individual measurements (personal and dwelling dose rates) were performed using thermoluminescence dosimeters in 24 randomly chosen individuals. Dwelling and personal dose rates in Hille were 0.12 and 0.11 microSv/h, respectively. The dose rates in Hille were slightly higher than in western Sweden (difference for detached houses=0.024 microSv/h for personal and 0.030 microSv/h for dwelling dose rates), partly because of the higher (137)Cs deposition. In wooden houses, the difference was somewhat greater. Our results indicate a current contribution to personal gamma radiation in this area of about 0.2 mSv per year from the Chernobyl fallout.

Lifestyle-related factors and environmental agents causing cancer: an overview

The increasing incidence of a variety of cancers after the Second World War confronts scientists with the question of their origin. In Western countries, expansion and ageing of the population as well as progress in cancer detection using new diagnostic and screening tests cannot fully account for the observed growing incidence of cancer. Our hypothesis is that environmental factors play a more important role in cancer genesis than it is usually agreed. (1) Over the last 2-3 decades, alcohol consumption and tobacco smoking in men have significantly decreased in Western Europe and North America. (2) Obesity is increasing in many countries, but the growing incidence of cancer also concerns cancers not related to obesity nor to other known lifestyle-related factors. (3) There is evidence that the environment has changed over the time period preceding the recent rise in cancer incidence, and that this change, still continuing, included the accumulation of many new carcinogenic factors in the environment. (4) Genetic susceptibility to cancer due to genetic polymorphism cannot have changed over one generation and actually favours the role of exogenous factors through gene-environment interactions. (5) Age is not the unique factor to be considered since the rising incidence of cancers is seen across all age categories, including children, and adolescents. (6) The fetus is specifically vulnerable to exogenous factors. A fetal exposure during a critical time window may explain why current epidemiological studies may still be negative in adults. We therefore propose that the involuntary exposure to many carcinogens in the environment, including microorganisms (viruses, bacteria and parasites), radiations (radioactivity, UV and pulsed electromagnetic fields) and many xenochemicals, may account for the recent growing incidence of cancer and therefore that the risk attributable to environmental carcinogen may be far higher than it is usually agreed. Of major concern are: outdoor air pollution by carbon particles associated with polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons; indoor air pollution by environmental tobacco smoke, formaldehyde and volatile organic compounds such as benzene and 1,3 butadiene, which may particularly affect children and food contamination by food additives and by carcinogenic contaminants such as nitrates, pesticides, dioxins and other organochlorines. In addition, carcinogenic metals and metalloids, pharmaceutical medicines and some ingredients and contaminants in cosmetics may be involved. Although the risk fraction attributable to environmental factors is still unknown, this long list of carcinogenic and especially mutagenic factors supports our working hypothesis according to which numerous cancers may in fact be caused by the recent modification of our environment.

The multitude and diversity of environmental carcinogens

We have recently proposed that lifestyle-related factors, screening and aging cannot fully account for the present overall growing incidence of cancer. In order to propose the concept that in addition to lifestyle related factors, exogenous environmental factors may play a more important role in carcinogenesis than it is expected, and may therefore account for the growing incidence of cancer, we overview herein environmental factors, rated as certainly or potentially carcinogenic by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). We thus analyze the carcinogenic effect of microorganisms (including viruses), radiations (including radioactivity, UV and pulsed electromagnetic fields) and xenochemicals. Chemicals related to environmental pollution appear to be of critical importance, since they can induce occupational cancers as well as other cancers. Of major concerns are: outdoor air pollution by carbon particles associated with polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons; indoor air pollution by environmental tobacco smoke, formaldehyde and volatile organic compounds such as benzene and 1,3 butadiene, which may particularly affect children, and food pollution by food additives and by carcinogenic contaminants such as nitrates, pesticides, dioxins and other organochlorines. In addition, carcinogenic metals and metalloids, pharmaceutical medicines and cosmetics may be involved. Although the risk fraction attributable to environmental factors is still unknown, this long list of carcinogenic and especially mutagenic factors supports our working hypothesis according to which numerous cancers may in fact be caused by the recent modification of our environment.