Logistic risk model for mortality following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm repair

Impact of patient sex on selection for abdominal aortic aneurysm repair: a discrete choice experiment

OBJECTIVES

Women with an abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) are less likely to receive elective repair than men. This study explored the effect of patient sex and other attributes on vascular surgeons' decision-making for infrarenal AAA repair.

DESIGN

Discrete choice experiment.

SETTING

Simulated environment using case scenarios with varying patient attributes.

PARTICIPANTS

Vascular surgeons.

INTERVENTIONS

Surgical decision-making.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

AAA repair versus no repair and endovascular versus open repair.

RESULTS

182 surgeons completed 2987 scenarios. When all other attributes were equal, a woman was more likely to be offered an AAA repair (marginal rate of substitution (MRS) 3.86 (95% CI 2.93, 4.79)), while very high anaesthetic risk (MRS -4.33 (95% CI -5.63, -3.03)) and hostile anatomy (MRS -3.28 (95% CI -4.55, -2.01)) were deterrents. Increasing age did not adversely affect the likelihood of offering repair to men but decreased the likelihood for women, which negated women's selection advantage from the age of 83 years. Women were also more likely to be offered endovascular repair (MRS 2.57 (95% CI 1.30, 3.84)).

CONCLUSIONS

Patient sex alone did not account for real-world disparity observed in selection for surgery. Rather, being a woman was associated with a higher likelihood of being offered AAA repair but also a higher likelihood of being offered less invasive endovascular repair. Increased age decreased the likelihood of surgical selection for women but not men. Preference for less invasive repair, combined with inferior rates of anatomical suitability, and the comparably older age of women at the time of AAA repair selection may account for lower rates of repair for women observed.

Association between diabetes status and long-term outcomes following open and endovascular repair of infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysms

OBJECTIVE

Current literature reports conflicting findings regarding the effect of diabetes mellitus (DM) on outcomes of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair. In this study we examined the effect of DM and its management on outcomes after open AAA repair (OAR) and endovascular AAA repair (EVAR).

METHODS

We identified all patients undergoing OAR or EVAR for infrarenal AAA between 2003 and 2018 in the Vascular Quality Initiative registry data linked with Medicare claims. We excluded patients with missing DM status. Patients were stratified by their preoperative DM status, and then further stratified by DM management: dietary, noninsulin antidiabetic medications (NIMs), or insulin. Outcomes of interest included 1-year aneurysm sac dynamics, 8-year aneurysm rupture, reintervention, and all-cause mortality. These outcomes were analyzed with the χ2 test, Kaplan-Meier methods, and multivariable Cox regression analyses.

RESULTS

We identified 34,021 EVAR patients and 4127 OAR patients, of whom 20% and 16% had DM, respectively. Of all DM patients, 22% were managed by dietary management, 59% by NIM, and 19% by insulin. After EVAR, DM patients were more likely to have stable sacs, whereas non-DM patients were more likely to have sac regression at 1 year. Compared with non-DM, DM was associated with a significantly lower risk for 8-year rupture in EVAR (EVAR hazard ratio [HR], 0.68; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.51-0.92). Compared with non-DM, NIM was associated with lower risk of rupture within 8-years for both EVAR and OAR (EVAR HR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.44-0.94; OAR HR, 0.29; 95% CI, 0.41-0.80), whereas dietary control and insulin had a similar rupture risk compared with non-DM. However, compared with non-DM, DM was associated with a higher risk of 8-year all-cause mortality after EVAR and OAR (DM vs non-DM: EVAR HR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.11-1.23; OAR HR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.00-1.36). After further DM management substratification, compared with non-DM, management with NIM and insulin were associated with a higher 8-year mortality in EVAR and OAR (EVAR: NIM HR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.05-1.20; insulin: HR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.26-1.55; OAR: NIM HR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.06-1.54; and insulin: HR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.15-2.13). Finally, there was a similar risk of reintervention across the DM and non-DM populations for EVAR and OAR.

CONCLUSIONS

DM was associated with a lower adjusted risk of rupture after EVAR as well as OAR in patients managed with NIM. Nevertheless, just as in patients without AAA, preoperative DM was associated with a higher adjusted risk of all-cause mortality. Further study is needed to evaluate for differences in aneurysm-related mortality between DM and non-DM patients, and studies are planned to evaluate the independent effect of NIM on aneurysm-related outcomes.

Unsupervised machine learning cluster analysis to identification EVAR patients clinical phenotypes based on radiomics

OBJECTIVE

This study used unsupervised machine learning (UML) cluster analysis to explore clinical phenotypes of endovascular aortic repair (EVAR) for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) patients based on radiomics.

METHOD

We retrospectively reviewed 1785 patients with infra-renal AAA who underwent elective EVAR procedures between January 2010 and December 2020. Pyradiomics was used to extract the radiomics features. Statistical analysis was applied to determine the radiomics features that related to severe adverse events (SAEs) after EVAR. The selected features were used for UML cluster analysis in training set and validation in test set. Comparison of basic characteristics and radiomics features of different clusters. The Kaplan-Meier analysis was conducted to generate the cumulative incidence of freedom from SAEs rate.

RESULT

A total of 1180 patients were enrolled. During the follow-up, 353 patients experienced EVAR-related SAEs. In total, 1223 radiomics features were extracted from each patient, of which 23 radiomics features were finally preserved to identify different clinical phenotypes. 944 patients were allocated to the training set. Three clusters were identified in training set, in which patients had identical clinical characteristics and morphological features, while varied considerably of selected radiomics features. This encouraging performance was further approved in the test set. In addition, each cluster was well differentiated from other clusters and Kaplan-Meier analysis showed significant differences of freedom from SAEs rate between different clusters both in the training (p = .0216) and test sets (p = .0253).

CONCLUSION

Based on radiomics, UML cluster analysis can identify clinical phenotypes in EVAR patients with distinct long-term outcomes.

Novel Risk Score Calculator for Perioperative Mortality after EVAR with Incorporation of Anatomical Factors

BACKGROUND

Hostile proximal aortic neck anatomy has been associated with an increased risk of perioperative mortality after endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR). However, all available mortality risk prediction models after EVAR lack neck anatomic associations. The aim of this study is to develop a preoperative prediction model for perioperative mortality after EVAR incorporating important anatomic factors.

METHODS

Data were obtained from the Vascular Quality Initiative database on all patients who underwent elective EVAR between January 2015 and December 2018. A stepwise multivariable logistic regression analysis was implemented to identify independent predictors and develop a risk calculator for perioperative mortality after EVAR. Internal validation was done using bootstrap of 1,000 reps.

RESULTS

A total of 25,133 patients were included, of whom 1.1% (N = 271) died within 30 days or before discharge. Significant preoperative predictors of perioperative mortality were age (odds ratio [OR], 1.053; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.050-1.056; P < 0.001), female sex (OR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.38-1.54; P < 0.001), chronic kidney disease (OR, 1.65; 95% CI, 1.57-1.73; P < 0.001), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.77-1.94; P < 0.001), congestive heart failure (OR, 2.02; 95% CI, 1.91-2.13, P < 0.001), aneurysm diameter ≥ 6.5 cm (OR, 2.35; 95% CI, 2.24-2.47, P < 0.001), proximal neck length < 10 mm (OR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.81-2.12; P < 0.001), proximal neck diameter ≥ 30 mm (OR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.32-1.5; P < 0.001), infrarenal neck angulation ≥ 60° (OR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.18-1.26; P < 0.001), and suprarenal neck angulation ≥ 60° (OR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.16-1.37; P < 0.001). Significant protective factors included aspirin use (OR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.85-0.93; P < 0.001) and statin intake (OR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.73-0.81; P < 0.001). These predictors were incorporated to build an interactive risk calculator of perioperative mortality after EVAR (C-statistic = 0.749).

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides a prediction model for mortality following EVAR that incorporates aortic neck features. The risk calculator can be used to weigh risk/benefit ratio when counseling patients preoperatively. Prospective use of this risk calculator may show its benefit in long-term prediction of adverse outcomes.

Antithrombotic Therapy for Aortic Aneurysms: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

OBJECTIVES

The role of antithrombotic therapy in the management of aortic and peripheral aneurysms is unclear. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to assess the impact of antithrombotics on clinical outcomes for aortic and peripheral aneurysms.

METHODS

Medline, Embase, and CENTRAL databases were searched. Randomised controlled trials and observational studies investigating the effect of antithrombotic therapy on clinical outcomes for patients with any aortic or peripheral artery aneurysm were included.

RESULTS

Fifty-nine studies (28 with antiplatelet agents, 12 anticoagulants, two intra-operative heparin, and 16 any antithrombotic agent) involving 122 102 patients were included. Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) growth rate was not significantly associated with the use of antiplatelet therapy (SMD -0.36 mm/year; 95% CI -0.75 - 0.02; p = .060; GRADE certainty: very low). Antithrombotics were associated with increased 30 day mortality for patients with AAAs undergoing intervention (OR 2.30; 95% CI 1.51 - 3.51; p < .001; GRADE certainty: low). Following intervention, antiplatelet therapy was associated with reduced long term all cause mortality (HR 0.84; 95% CI 0.76 - 0.92; p < .001; GRADE certainty: moderate), whilst anticoagulants were associated with increased all cause mortality (HR 1.64; 95% CI 1.14 - 2.37; p = .008; GRADE certainty: very low), endoleak within three years (OR 1.99; 95% CI 1.10 - 3.60; p = .020; I² = 60%; GRADE certainty: very low), and an increased re-intervention rate at one year (OR 3.25; 95% CI 1.82 - 5.82; p < .001; I² = 35%; GRADE certainty: moderate). Five studies examined antithrombotic therapy for popliteal aneurysms. Meta-analysis was not possible due to heterogeneity.

CONCLUSIONS

There was a lack of high quality data examining antithrombotic therapy for patients with aneurysms. Antiplatelet therapy was associated with a reduction in post-intervention all cause mortality for AAA, whilst anticoagulants were associated with an increased risk of all cause mortality, endoleak, and re-intervention. Large, well designed trials are still required to determine the therapeutic benefits of antithrombotic agents in this setting.

Development and Comparison of Multimodal Models for Preoperative Prediction of Outcomes After Endovascular Aneurysm Repair

Objective

The aim of this study was to develop and compare multimodal models for predicting outcomes after endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair (EVAR) based on morphological, deep learning (DL), and radiomic features.

Methods

We retrospectively reviewed 979 patients (January 2010—December 2019) with infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) who underwent elective EVAR procedures. A total of 486 patients (January 2010–December 2015) were used for morphological feature model development and optimization. Univariable and multivariable analyses were conducted to determine significant morphological features of EVAR-related severe adverse events (SAEs) and to build a morphological feature model based on different machine learning algorithms. Subsequently, to develop the morphological feature model more easily and better compare with other modal models, 340 patients of AAA with intraluminal thrombosis (ILT) were used for automatic segmentation of ILT based on deep convolutional neural networks (DCNNs). Notably, 493 patients (January 2016–December 2019) were used for the development and comparison of multimodal models (optimized morphological feature, DL, and radiomic models). Of note, 80% of patients were classified as the training set and 20% of patients were classified as the test set. The area under the curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the predictive abilities of different modal models.

Results

The mean age of the patients was 69.9 years, the mean follow-up was 54 months, and 307 (31.4%) patients experienced SAEs. Statistical analysis revealed that short neck, angulated neck, conical neck, ILT, ILT percentage ≥51.6%, luminal calcification, double iliac sign, and common iliac artery index ≥1.255 were associated with SAEs. The morphological feature model based on the support vector machine had a better predictive performance with an AUC of 0.76, an accuracy of 0.76, and an F1 score of 0.82. Our DCNN model achieved a mean intersection over union score of more than 90.78% for the segmentation of ILT and AAA aortic lumen. The multimodal model result showed that the radiomic model based on logistics regression had better predictive performance (AUC 0.93, accuracy 0.86, and F1 score 0.91) than the optimized morphological feature model (AUC 0.62, accuracy 0.69, and F1 score 0.81) and the DL model (AUC 0.82, accuracy 0.85, and F1 score 0.89).

Conclusion

The radiomic model has better predictive performance for patient status after EVAR. The morphological feature model and DL model have their own advantages and could also be used to predict outcomes after EVAR.

Mortality following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm repair in women

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have focused on patient-related risk factors to explain the higher mortality risk in women undergoing elective abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether hospital-related factors influence outcomes following AAA repair in women.

METHODS

Patients undergoing elective AAA repair in 61 hospitals in the Netherlands were identified from the Dutch Surgical Aneurysm Audit registry (2013-2018). A mixed-effects logistic regression analysis was conducted to assess the effect of sex on in-hospital and/or 30-day mortality. This analysis accounted for possible correlation of outcomes among patients who were treated in the same hospital, by adding a hospital-specific random effect to the statistical model. The analysis adjusted for patient-related risk factors and hospital volume of open surgical repair (OSR) and endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR).

RESULTS

Some 12 034 patients were included in the analysis. The mortality rate was higher in women than among men: 53 of 1780 (3.0 per cent) versus 152 of 10 254 (1.5 per cent) respectively. Female sex was significantly associated with mortality after correction for patient- and hospital-related factors (odds ratio 1.68, 95 per cent c.i. 1.20 to 2.37). OSR volume was associated with lower mortality (OR 0.91 (0.85 to 0.95) per 10-procedure increase) whereas no such relationship was identified with EVAR volume (OR 1.03 (1.01 to 1.05) per 10-procedure increase).

CONCLUSION

Women are at higher risk of death after abdominal aortic aneurysm repair irrespective of patient- and hospital-related factors.

Animal Model Dependent Response to Pentagalloyl Glucose in Murine Abdominal Aortic Injury

Abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) are a local dilation of the aorta and are associated with significant mortality due to rupture and treatment complications. There is a need for less invasive treatments to prevent aneurysm growth and rupture. In this study, we used two experimental murine models to evaluate the potential of pentagalloyl glucose (PGG), which is a polyphenolic tannin that binds to and crosslinks elastin and collagen, to preserve aortic compliance. Animals underwent surgical aortic injury and received 0.3% PGG or saline treatment on the adventitial surface of the infrarenal aorta. Seventeen mice underwent topical elastase injury, and 14 mice underwent topical calcium chloride injury. We collected high-frequency ultrasound images before surgery and at 3-4 timepoints after. There was no difference in the in vivo effective maximum diameter due to PGG treatment for either model. However, the CaCl2 model had significantly higher Green-Lagrange circumferential cyclic strain in PGG-treated animals (p < 0.05). While ex vivo pressure-inflation testing showed no difference between groups in either model, histology revealed reduced calcium deposits in the PGG treatment group with the CaCl2 model. These findings highlight the continued need for improved understanding of PGG's effects on the extracellular matrix and suggest that PGG may reduce arterial calcium accumulation.

Systematic review of mortality risk prediction models in the era of endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm surgery

BACKGROUND

The introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) has reduced perioperative mortality after abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) surgery. The objective of this systematic review was to assess existing mortality risk prediction models, and identify which are most useful for patients undergoing AAA repair by either EVAR or open surgical repair.

METHODS

A systematic search of the literature was conducted for perioperative mortality risk prediction models for patients with AAA published since 2006. PRISMA guidelines were used; quality was appraised, and data were extracted and interpreted following the CHARMS guidelines.

RESULTS

Some 3903 studies were identified, of which 27 were selected. A total of 13 risk prediction models have been developed and directly validated. Most models were based on a UK or US population. The best performing models regarding both applicability and discrimination were the perioperative British Aneurysm Repair score (C-statistic 0·83) and the preoperative Vascular Biochemistry and Haematology Outcome Model (C-statistic 0·85), but both lacked substantial external validation.

CONCLUSION

Mortality risk prediction in AAA surgery has been modelled extensively, but many of these models are weak methodologically and have highly variable performance across different populations. New models are unlikely to be helpful; instead case-mix correction should be modelled and adapted to the population of interest using the relevant mortality predictors.

Trends in Patient Safety of Intact Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair: German Registry Data on 36,594 Procedures

OBJECTIVE/BACKGROUND

The study aim was to determine whether patient safety for non-ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (nrAAA) repair has changed between 1999 and 2010 in a large German cohort.

METHODS

The data source was the prospective quality assurance registry of the German Vascular Society from 1999 to 2010. Patient characteristics, surgical techniques (open aortic repair [OAR], endovascular aortic repair [EVAR]), procedural time and outcomes, including the length of hospital stay (LOS), were analysed using the Cochran-Armitage test for binary parameters and Spearman's correlation coefficient for quantitative parameters.

RESULTS

A total of 36,594 operations (23,037 OAR, 13,557 EVAR) for infrarenal nrAAA in 201 hospitals in Germany were investigated. Patients' mean age increased from 69.6 to 72.0 years (p < .001). The rate of patients with American Society of Anesthesiologists scores of 3 or 4 increased (p < .001). Use of EVAR increased (1999: 16.7%; 2010: 62.7%; p < .001), and since 2009, EVAR has been more frequently used than OAR. The overall in hospital mortality decreased from 3.1% in 1999 to 2.3% in 2010 (p < .001). There were no temporal trends for mortality rates for EVAR (p = .233) or OAR (p = .281) when considered separately. Cardiac (1999: 8.1%; 2010: 5.1%; p < .001) and pulmonary (1999: 7.8%; 2010: 4.8%; p < .001) complications decreased. The rate of post-operative renal failure increased (1999: 3.6%; 2010 4.1%; p = .017), without increasing the rate of patients needing dialysis (1999: 1.7%; 2010: 1.7%; p = .171). The median LOS decreased from 17 days in 1999 to 10 days in 2010 (p < .001).

CONCLUSION

This study shows significantly improved post-procedural in hospital outcomes and decreased use of resources for nrAAA repair. This trend can probably be attributed to the implementation of EVAR as a standard technique, but some trends could also possibly be explained by a change in the remuneration system. The main limitation of the registry is the lack of internal and external validation. However, in hospital patient safety for AAA repair seems to have improved significantly in the participating hospitals.

Clinical outcome of early relaparotomy after elective open repair of abdominal aortic aneurysms

Purpose

The aim of this study was to retrospectively evaluate the association of need for early relaparotomy with clinical outcomes after elective open repair of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs).

Methods

A total of 292 consecutive patients who underwent elective open AAA repair at Asan Medical Center from January 2001 to December 2010 were included in this study, and we compared the demographics, clinical characteristics, related risk factors, and clinical outcomes of early relaparotomy versus nonrelaparotomy patients.

Results

The incidence of early relaparotomy during a single hospital stay was 4.1% (n = 12), and the most common causes were bowel ischemia (n = 5, 41.7%) and postoperative bleeding (n = 3, 25.0%). Among the demographics and clinical characteristics significantly associated with relaparotomy were: age (P = 0.025), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (P = 0.010), number of RBC units transfused during the AAA repair (P = 0.022) and in the following week (P = 0.005), and length of intensive care (P < 0.001) and overall hospital stay (P < 0.001). On multivariate analysis, presence of COPD (P = 0.009) and number of RBC units transfused during the AAA repair (P = 0.006) were statistically significantly associated with relaparotomy. Furthermore, early relaparotomy was associated with perioperative (within 30 days) (P = 0.048) and overall in-hospital mortality (P = 0.001).

Conclusion

Early relaparotomy has an adverse effect on clinical outcomes: increased mortality and hospital length of stay. Presence of COPD and need for RBC transfusion are associated with early relaparotomy.

A new risk-scoring model for predicting 30-day mortality after repair of abdominal aortic aneurysms in the era of endovascular procedures

Purpose

To propose a new, multivariable risk-scoring model for predicting 30-day mortality in individuals underwent repair of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA).

Methods

Four hundred eighty-five consecutive patients who underwent AAA repair from January 2000 to December 2010 were included in the study. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to evaluate the risk factors, and a risk-scoring model was developed.

Results

Multivariate analysis identified three independent preoperative risk factors associated with mortality, and a risk-scoring model was created by assigning an equal value to each factor. The independent predictors were location of the AAA, rupture of AAA, and preoperative pulmonary dysfunction. The multivariable regression model demonstrated moderate discrimination (c statistic, 0.811) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, P = 0.793). The observed mortality rate did not differ significantly from that predicted by our risk-scoring model.

Conclusion

Our risk-scoring model has excellent ability to predict 30-day mortality after AAA repair, and awaits validation in further studies.

Comparison of three contemporary risk scores for mortality following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm repair

Objective/background

A number of contemporary risk prediction models for mortality following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair have been developed. Before a model is used either in clinical practice or to risk-adjust surgical outcome data it is important that its performance is assessed in external validation studies.

Methods

The British Aneurysm Repair (BAR) score, Medicare, and Vascular Governance North West (VGNW) models were validated using an independent prospectively collected sample of multicentre clinical audit data. Consecutive, data on 1,124 patients undergoing elective AAA repair at 17 hospitals in the north-west of England and Wales between April 2011 and March 2013 were analysed. The outcome measure was in-hospital mortality. Model calibration (observed to expected ratio with chi-square test, calibration plots, calibration intercept and slope) and discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]) were assessed in the overall cohort and procedural subgroups.

Results

The mean age of the population was 74.4 years (SD 7.7); 193 (17.2%) patients were women and the majority of patients (759, 67.5%) underwent endovascular aneurysm repair. All three models demonstrated good calibration in the overall cohort and procedural subgroups. Overall discrimination was excellent for the BAR score (AUC 0.83, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.76–0.89), and acceptable for the Medicare and VGNW models, with AUCs of 0.78 (95% CI 0.70–0.86) and 0.75 (95% CI 0.65–0.84) respectively. Only the BAR score demonstrated good discrimination in procedural subgroups.

Conclusion

All three models demonstrated good calibration and discrimination for the prediction of in-hospital mortality following elective AAA repair and are potentially useful. The BAR score has a number of advantages, which include being developed on the most contemporaneous data, excellent overall discrimination, and good performance in procedural subgroups. Regular model validations and recalibration will be essential.

Classifying hospitals as mortality outliers: logistic versus hierarchical logistic models

The use of hierarchical logistic regression for provider profiling has been recommended due to the clustering of patients within hospitals, but has some associated difficulties. We assess changes in hospital outlier status based on standard logistic versus hierarchical logistic modelling of mortality. The study population consisted of all patients admitted to acute, non-specialist hospitals in England between 2007 and 2011 with a primary diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction, acute cerebrovascular disease or fracture of neck of femur or a primary procedure of coronary artery bypass graft or repair of abdominal aortic aneurysm. We compared standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) from non-hierarchical models with SMRs from hierarchical models, without and with shrinkage estimates of the predicted probabilities (Model 1 and Model 2). The SMRs from standard logistic and hierarchical models were highly statistically significantly correlated (r > 0.91, p = 0.01). More outliers were recorded in the standard logistic regression than hierarchical modelling only when using shrinkage estimates (Model 2): 21 hospitals (out of a cumulative number of 565 pairs of hospitals under study) changed from a low outlier and 8 hospitals changed from a high outlier based on the logistic regression to a not-an-outlier based on shrinkage estimates. Both standard logistic and hierarchical modelling have identified nearly the same hospitals as mortality outliers. The choice of methodological approach should, however, also consider whether the modelling aim is judgment or improvement, as shrinkage may be more appropriate for the former than the latter.

Diabetes and abdominal aortic aneurysms

Epidemiologic evidence suggests that patients with diabetes may have a lower incidence of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA); however, the link between diabetes and AAA development and expansion is unclear. The aim of this review is to analyze updated evidence to better understand the impact of diabetes on prevalence, incidence, clinical outcome, and expansion rate of AAA. A systematic review of literature published in the last 20 years using the PubMed and Cochrane databases was undertaken. Studies reporting appropriate data were identified and a meta-analysis performed using the generic inverse variance method. Sixty-four studies were identified. Methodological quality was "fair" in 16 and "good" in 44 studies according to a formal assessment checklist (Newcastle-Ottawa). In 17 large population prevalence studies there was a significant inverse association between diabetes and AAA: pooled odds ratio (OR) 0.80; 95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.70-0.90 (p = .0009). An inverse association was also confirmed by pooled analysis of data from smaller prevalence studies on selected populations (OR 0.59; 95% CI 0.35-0.99; p = .05), while no significant results were provided by case-control studies. A significant lower pooled incidence of new AAA in diabetics was found over six prospective studies: OR 0.54; 95% CI 0.31-0.91; p = .03. Diabetic patients showed increased operative (30-day/in-hospital) mortality after AAA repair: pooled OR 1.26; 95% CI 1.10-1.44; p = .0008. The increased operative risk was more evident in studies with 30-day assessment. In the long-term, diabetics showed lower survival rates at 2-5 years, while there was general evidence of lower growth rates of small AAA in patients with diabetes compared to non-diabetics. There is currently evidence to support an inverse relationship between diabetes and AAA development and enlargement, even though fair methodological quality or unclear risk of bias in many available studies decreases the strength of the finding. At the same time, operative and long-term survival is lower in diabetic patients, suggesting increased cardiovascular burden. The higher mortality in diabetics raises the question as to whether AAA repair should be individualized in selected diabetic populations at higher AAA rupture risk.

National risk prediction model for elective abdominal aortic aneurysm repair

BACKGROUND

Mortality results for elective abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair are published by the Vascular Society of Great Britain and Ireland. These mortality results are not currently risk-adjusted. The objective of this study was to develop a national risk prediction model for elective AAA repair.

METHODS

Data for consecutive patients undergoing elective AAA repair from the National Vascular Database between April 2008 and March 2011 were analysed. Multiple logistic regression and backwards model selection were used for model development. The study outcome measure was in-hospital mortality. Model calibration and discrimination were assessed for all AAA repairs, and separately for open repair and endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) subgroups.

RESULTS

There were 312 in-hospital deaths among 11,423 AAA repairs (2.7 (95 per cent confidence interval (c.i.) 2.4 to 3.0) per cent): 230 after 4940 open AAA repairs (4.7 (4.1 to 5.3) per cent) and 82 after 6483 EVARs (1.3 (1.0 to 1.6) per cent). Variables associated with in-hospital death included in the final model were: open repair, increasing age, female sex, serum creatinine level over 120 µmol/l, cardiac disease, abnormal electrocardiogram, previous aortic surgery or stent, abnormal white cell count, abnormal serum sodium level, AAA diameter and American Society of Anesthesiologists fitness grade. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.781 (95 per cent c.i. 0.756 to 0.806) with a bias-corrected value of 0.774. Model calibration was good (P = 0.963) based on the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, (bias-corrected) calibration curves, risk group assessment and recalibration regression.

CONCLUSION

This multivariable model for elective AAA repair can be used to risk-adjust outcome analyses and provide patient-specific estimates of in-hospital mortality risk for open AAA repair or EVAR.

Preoperative cardiopulmonary exercise testing and risk of early mortality following abdominal aortic aneurysm repair

BACKGROUND

Cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) provides an objective assessment of functional capacity. The aim of this study was to assess whether preoperative CPET identifies patients at risk of early death following elective open and endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair.

METHODS

Prospective data were collected from a pilot study between September 2005 and February 2007, and from all patients who underwent CPET before elective AAA repair at two vascular centres between February 2007 and November 2011. Symptom-limited, maximal CPET was performed on each patient. Univariable and multivariable analyses were used to identify risk factors for 30- and 90-day mortality.

RESULTS

Some 415 patients underwent CPET before elective AAA repair. Anaerobic threshold (AT), peak oxygen consumption (peak V.O(2) ) and ventilatory equivalents for carbon dioxide were associated with 30- and 90-day mortality on univariable analysis. On multivariable analysis, open repair (odds ratio (OR) 4·92, 95 per cent confidence interval 1·55 to 17·00; P = 0·008), AT below 10·2 ml per kg per min (OR 6·35, 1·84 to 29·80; P = 0·007), anaemia (OR 3·27, 1·04 to 10·50; P = 0·041) and inducible cardiac ischaemia (OR 6·16, 1·48 to 23·07; P = 0·008) were associated with 30-day mortality. Anaemia, inducible cardiac ischaemia and peak V.O(2) less than 15 ml per kg per min (OR 8·59, 2·33 to 55·75; P = 0·005) were associated with 90-day mortality on multivariable analysis. Patients with two or more subthreshold CPET values were at increased risk of both 30- and 90-day mortality.

CONCLUSION

An AT below 10·2 ml per kg per min, peak V.O(2) less than 15 ml per kg per min and at least two subthreshold CPET values identify patients at increased risk of early death following AAA repair.

Submaximal exercise testing predicts perioperative hospitalization after aortic aneurysm repair

BACKGROUND

Aortic aneurysm repair is a high-risk surgical procedure. Patients are often elderly, with multiple comorbidities that predispose them to perioperative morbidity. Use of endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) has increased due to reduced early perioperative risk. This study assessed whether preoperative cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) could be used to predict morbidity and hospital length of stay (LOS) after aortic aneurysm repair.

METHODS

A total of 185 patients underwent surgical repair (84 open repairs, 101 EVAR) and had adequate determination of a submaximal CPET parameter (anaerobic threshold).

RESULTS

Patient comorbidities and cardiorespiratory fitness, derived from CPET, were similar between surgical procedures. Patients undergoing EVAR had fewer complications (10% vs 32%; P<.0001) and shorter mean (standard deviation [SD]) hospital LOS of 5.7 (9.3) days vs 14.4 (10.9) days compared with open repair (P<.0001). The hospital LOS was significantly increased in patients with one or more complications in both groups compared with those with no complications. In the open repair group, the level of fitness, as defined by anaerobic threshold, was an independent predictor of postoperative morbidity and hospital LOS. When the optimal anaerobic threshold (10 mL/min/kg) derived from receiver operator curve analysis was used as a cutoff value, unfit patients stayed significantly longer than fit patients in critical care (mean, 6.4 [SD, 6.9] days vs 2.4 [SD, 2.9] days; P=.002) and in the hospital (mean, 23.1 [SD, 14.8] days vs 11.0 [SD, 6.1] days; P<.0001). In contrast, fitness in the EVAR group was not predictive of postoperative morbidity but did have predictive value for hospital LOS.

CONCLUSIONS

Cardiorespiratory fitness holds significant clinical value before aortic aneurysm repair in predicting postsurgical complications and duration of critical care and hospital LOS. Preoperative measurement of fitness could then direct clinical management with regard to operative choice, postoperative resource allocation, and informed patient decision making.

Evaluation of five risk prediction models for elective abdominal aortic aneurysm repair using the UK National Vascular Database

Background

There is no consensus on the best risk prediction model for mortality following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair. The objective was to evaluate the performance of five risk prediction models using the UK National Vascular Database (NVD).

Methods

Data on elective AAA repairs from the NVD between January 2008 and December 2010 were analysed. The models assessed were: Glasgow Aneurysm Score (GAS), Vascular Biochemical and Haematological Outcome Model (VBHOM), physiological component of the Vascular Physiological and Operative Severity Score for enUmeration of Mortality (V-POSSUM), Medicare and Vascular Governance North West (VGNW). Overall model discrimination and calibration in equally sized risk-group quintiles were assessed.

Results

The study cohort included 10 891 patients undergoing elective AAA repair (median age 74 years, 87·3 per cent men). The in-hospital mortality rates following endovascular and open repair were 1·3 and 4·7 per cent respectively (2·9 per cent overall). The Medicare and VGNW models both showed good discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve 0·71), whereas the GAS, VBHOM and V-POSSUM models showed poor discrimination (area under ROC curve 0·60, 0·61 and 0·62 respectively). The VGNW model was the only one to predict the overall mortality rate in the cohort (3·3 per cent predicted versus 2·9 per cent observed; P = 0·066). The VGNW model demonstrated good calibration, predicting risk accurately in four risk-group quintiles. The Medicare, V-POSSUM and VBHOM models accurately predicted risk in three, two and no risk-group quintiles respectively.

Conclusion

The Medicare and VGNW models contain similar risk factors and showed good discrimination when applied to the NVD. Both models would be suitable for risk prediction after elective AAA repair in the UK.