Percutaneous coronary intervention in octogenarians: A risk scoring system to predict 30-day outcomes in the elderly

High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin T and Frailty Predict Short-Term Mortality in Patients ≥75 Years Undergoing Emergency Abdominal Surgery: A Prospective Observational Study

BACKGROUND

An elevated cardiac troponin concentration is a prognostic factor for perioperative cardiac morbidity and mortality. In elderly patients undergoing emergency abdominal surgery, frailty is a recognized risk factor, but little is known about the prognostic value of cardiac troponin in these vulnerable patients. Therefore, we investigated the prognostic significance of elevated high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) concentration and frailty in a cohort of elderly patients undergoing emergency abdominal surgery.

METHODS

We included consecutive patients ≥75 years of age who presented for emergency abdominal surgery, defined as abdominal pathology requiring surgery within 72 hours, in a university hospital in Norway. Patients who underwent vascular procedures or palliative surgery for inoperable malignancies were excluded. Preoperatively, frailty was assessed using the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS), and blood samples were measured for hs-cTnT. We evaluated the predictive power of CFS and hs-cTnT concentrations using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and Cox proportional hazard regression with 30-day mortality as the primary outcome. Secondary outcomes included (1) a composite of 30-day all-cause mortality and major adverse cardiac event (MACE), defined as myocardial infarction, nonfatal cardiac arrest, or coronary revascularization; and (2) 90-day mortality.

RESULTS

Of the 210 screened and 156 eligible patients, blood samples were available in 146, who were included. Troponin concentration exceeded the 99th percentile upper reference limit (URL) in 83% and 89% of the patients pre- and postoperatively. Of the participants, 53% were classified as vulnerable or frail (CFS ≥4). The 30-day mortality rate was 12% (18 of 146). Preoperatively, a threshold of hs-cTnT ≥34 ng/L independently predicted 30-day mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 3.14, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13-9.45), and the composite outcome of 30-day mortality and MACE (HR 2.58, 95% CI, 1.07-6.49). In this model, frailty (continuous CFS score) also independently predicted 30-day mortality (HR 1.42, 95% CI, 1.01-2.00) and 30-day mortality or MACE (HR 1.37, 95% CI, 1.02-1.84). The combination of troponin and frailty, 0.14 × hs-cTnT +4.0 × CFS, yielded apparent superior predictive power (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve [AUC] 0.79, 95% CI, 0.68-0.88), compared to troponin concentration (AUC 0.69, 95% CI, 0.55-0.83) or frailty (AUC 0.69, 95% CI, 0.57-0.82) alone.

CONCLUSIONS

After emergency abdominal surgery in elderly patients, increased preoperative troponin concentration and frailty were independent predictors of 30-day mortality. The combination of increased troponin concentration and frailty seemed to provide better prognostic information than troponin or frailty alone. These results must be validated in an independent sample.

Critical appraisal and assessment of bias among studies evaluating risk prediction models for in-hospital and 30-day mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention: a systematic review

OBJECTIVE

We systematically assessed prediction models for the risk of in-hospital and 30-day mortality in post-percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) patients.

DESIGN

Systematic review and narrative synthesis.

DATA SOURCES

Searched PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, Cochrane Library, CINAHL, CNKI, Wanfang Database, VIP Database and SinoMed for literature up to 31 August 2023.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

The included literature consists of studies in Chinese or English involving PCI patients aged ≥18 years. These studies aim to develop risk prediction models and include designs such as cohort studies, case-control studies, cross-sectional studies or randomised controlled trials. Each prediction model must contain at least two predictors. Exclusion criteria encompass models that include outcomes other than death post-PCI, literature lacking essential details on study design, model construction and statistical analysis, models based on virtual datasets, and publications such as conference abstracts, grey literature, informal publications, duplicate publications, dissertations, reviews or case reports. We also exclude studies focusing on the localisation applicability of the model or comparative effectiveness.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Two independent teams of researchers developed standardised data extraction forms based on CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies to extract and cross-verify data. They used Prediction model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) to assess the risk of bias and applicability of the model development or validation studies included in this review.

RESULTS

This review included 28 studies with 38 prediction models, showing area under the curve values ranging from 0.81 to 0.987. One study had an unclear risk of bias, while 27 studies had a high risk of bias, primarily in the area of statistical analysis. The models constructed in 25 studies lacked clinical applicability, with 21 of these studies including intraoperative or postoperative predictors.

CONCLUSION

The development of in-hospital and 30-day mortality prediction models for post-PCI patients is in its early stages. Emphasising clinical applicability and predictive stability is vital. Future research should follow PROBAST's low risk-of-bias guidelines, prioritising external validation for existing models to ensure reliable and widely applicable clinical predictions.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42023477272.

Preoperative Variables of 30-Day Mortality in Adults Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Risk adjustment following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is vital for clinical quality registries, performance monitoring, and clinical decision-making. There remains significant variation in the accuracy and nature of risk adjustment models utilised in international PCI registries/databases. Therefore, the current systematic review aims to summarise preoperative variables associated with 30-day mortality among patients undergoing PCI, and the other methodologies used in risk adjustments.

METHOD

The MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, and Web of Science databases until October 2022 without any language restriction were systematically searched to identify preoperative independent variables related to 30-day mortality following PCI. Information was systematically summarised in a descriptive manner following the Checklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies checklist. The quality and risk of bias of all included articles were assessed using the Prediction Model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool. Two independent investigators took part in screening and quality assessment.

RESULTS

The search yielded 2,941 studies, of which 42 articles were included in the final assessment. Logistic regression, Cox-proportional hazard model, and machine learning were utilised by 27 (64.3%), 14 (33.3%), and one (2.4%) article, respectively. A total of 74 independent preoperative variables were identified that were significantly associated with 30-day mortality following PCI. Variables that repeatedly used in various models were, but not limited to, age (n=36, 85.7%), renal disease (n=29, 69.0%), diabetes mellitus (n=17, 40.5%), cardiogenic shock (n=14, 33.3%), gender (n=14, 33.3%), ejection fraction (n=13, 30.9%), acute coronary syndrome (n=12, 28.6%), and heart failure (n=10, 23.8%). Nine (9; 21.4%) studies used missing values imputation, and 15 (35.7%) articles reported the model's performance (discrimination) with values ranging from 0.501 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.472-0.530) to 0.928 (95% CI 0.900-0.956), and four studies (9.5%) validated the model on external/out-of-sample data.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk adjustment models need further improvement in their quality through the inclusion of a parsimonious set of clinically relevant variables, appropriately handling missing values and model validation, and utilising machine learning methods.

Complex, high-risk percutaneous coronary intervention types, trends, and in-hospital outcomes among different age groups: An insight from a national registry

BACKGROUND

Complex, high-risk percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) (CHiP) is increasingly being undertaken in octogenarians. However, limited data exist on CHiP types, trends, and outcomes in the octogenarian.

METHODS

This is a retrospective cohort study from a national registry dataset on CHiP undertaken in patients with stable angina in England and Wales (January 2006 and December 2017) according to three age groups (group 1 [G1]: < 65 years; group 2 [G2]: 65-79 years; and group 3 [G3]: ≥80 years).

RESULTS

Of 424,290 elective PCI procedures, 138,831 (33.0%) were CHiP [G1: 46,832 (33.7%); G2: 59,544 (42.9%); G3: 32,455 (23.4%)]. Among CHiP types, chronic total occlusion (CTO) (49.2%), prior coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) (30.4%), and severe vascular calcification (21.8%) were common in G1; prior CABG (42.9%), CTO (32.9%), and severe vascular calcifications (27%) were common in G2; prior CABG (15.8%), severe vascular calcification (15.5%), and chronic renal failure (11.1%) were common CHiP among the octogenarians. The older age groups had higher adjusted odds (aOR) for adverse outcomes [G2: mortality, aOR 1.7, 95% confidence interval (CI): (1.3-2.3); major bleeding, aOR 1.3, 95% CI (1.1-1.5); MACCE, aOR 1.2, 95% CI (1.0-1.3); G3: mortality, aOR 2.6, 95%CI (1.9-3.6); major bleeding, aOR 1.4, 95% CI (1.1-1.7); MACCE, aOR 1.3, 95% CI (1.1-1.5)].

CONCLUSION

There were significant differences in the types of CHiP cases undertaken and clinical outcomes across age groups.

Association of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide with mortality in elderly (≥80 years) patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to determine the role of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) in the prognostication of patients ≥80 years of age undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI).

BACKGROUND

Elderly patients with coronary artery disease in need of PCI represent a growing patient population. Advanced risk prediction in this frail and comorbid patient population is important.

METHODS

A total of 460 consecutive patients ≥80 years of age undergoing PCI for acute (ACS) or chronic coronary syndromes (CCS) at the University Hospital Zurich, Switzerland, between January 2016 and December 2018 and with available baseline NT-proBNP levels were included in the analysis. Patients were stratified according to baseline NT-proBNP levels. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality at a median follow-up of 33 (interquartile range: 3-392) days.

RESULTS

Median baseline NT-proBNP levels were 1411 (457-3984) ng/L. All-cause mortality was 7.8% in the lowest and 27.8% in the highest NT-proBNP quartile group (p < 0.001). In patients with ACS, all-cause mortality was 4.8% and 30.4% in the lowest and the highest NT-proBNP quartile (p < 0.001), and corresponding rates in patients with CCS were 11.1% and 22.2% (p = 0.38). In multivariable Cox regression analysis, baseline NT-proBNP levels were independently associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.00, 95% confidence interval: 1.00-1.00, p = 0.04).

CONCLUSIONS

Baseline NT-proBNP levels were identified as independent predictor of mortality in elderly (≥80 years) patients undergoing PCI. Hence, baseline NT-proBNP allows for the identification of a high-risk elderly patient subset.

Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting in Octogenarians-Risks, Outcomes, and Trends in 1283 Consecutive Patients

OBJECTIVE

To describe the risks, outcomes, and trends in patients older than 80 years undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG).

METHODS

We retrospectively studied 1283 consecutive patients who were older than 80 years and underwent primary isolated CABG from January 1, 1993, to October 31, 2019, in our clinic. Kaplan-Meier survival probability and quartile estimates were used to analyze patients' survival. Logistic regression models were used for analyzing temporal trends in CABG cases and outcomes. A multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model was developed to study risk factors for mortality.

RESULTS

Operative mortality was overall 4% (n=51) but showed a significant decrease during the study period (P=.015). Median follow-up was 16.7 (interquartile range, 10.3-21.1) years, and Kaplan-Meier estimated survival rates at 1 year, 5 years, 10 years, and 15 years were 90.2%, 67.9%, 31.1%, and 8.2%, respectively. Median survival time was 7.6 years compared with 6.0 years for age- and sex-matched octogenarians in the general US population (P<.001). Multivariable Cox regression analysis identified older age (P<.001), recent atrial fibrillation or flutter (P<.001), diabetes mellitus (P<.001), smoking history (P=.006), cerebrovascular disease (P=.04), immunosuppressive status (P=.01), extreme levels of creatinine (P<.001), chronic lung disease (P=.02), peripheral vascular disease (P=.02), decreased ejection fraction (P=.03) and increased Society of Thoracic Surgeons predicted risk score (P=.01) as significant risk factors of mortality.

CONCLUSION

Although CABG in octogenarians carries a higher surgical risk, it may be associated with favorable outcomes and increase in long-term survival. Further studies are warranted to define subgroups benefiting more from surgical revascularization.

Percutaneous coronary intervention in octogenarians: 10-year experience from a primary percutaneous coronary intervention centre with off-site cardiothoracic support

OBJECTIVE

To examine the trends in patient characteristics and clinical outcomes over a ten-year period and to analyse the predictors of mortality in octogenarians undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in our centre.

METHODS

A total of 782 consecutive octogenarians (aged 80 and above) were identified from a prospectively collected PCI database within our non-surgical, medium volume centre between 1st January 2007 and 31st December 2016. This represented 10.9% of all PCI procedures performed in our centre during this period. We evaluated the demographic and procedural characteristics of the cohort with respect to clinical outcomes (all-cause in-hospital and 1-year mortality, in-hospital complication rates, duration of hospital admission, coronary disease angiographic complexity and major co-morbidities). The cohort was further stratified into three chronological tertiles (January 2007 to July 2012, 261 cases; August 2012 to May 2015, 261 cases; June 2015 to December 2016, 260 cases) to assess for differences over time. Predictors of mortality were identified through a multivariate regression analysis.

RESULTS

The number of octogenarians undergoing PCI increased nearly ten-fold over the studied period. Despite this, there were no significant differences in clinical outcomes or patient characteristics, except for the increased use of trans-radial vascular access [11.9% in first tertile vs. 73.2% in third tertile (P < 0.0001)]. The all-cause in-hospital (5.8% vs. 4.6% vs. 3.8%, P = 0.578) and 1-year mortality (12.4% vs. 12.5% vs. 14.4%, P = 0.746) remained constant in all three tertiles respectively. Six independent predictors of mortality were identified - increasing age [HR = 1.12 (1.03−1.22), P = 0.008], cardiogenic shock [HR = 16.40 (4.04–66.65), P < 0.0001], severe left ventricular impairment [HR = 3.52 (1.69−7.33), P = 0.001], peripheral vascular disease [HR = 2.73 (1.22−6.13), P = 0.015], diabetes [HR = 2.59 (1.30−5.17), P = 0.007] and low creatinine clearance [HR = 0.98 (0.96−1.00), P = 0.031].

CONCLUSION

This contemporary observational study provides a useful insight into the real-world practice of PCI in octogenarians.

Distribution and specificity of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T in older adults without acute cardiac conditions: cross-sectional results from the population-based AugUR study

OBJECTIVE

European guidelines recommended a uniform upper reference limit of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hsTnT) to rule out non-ST segment elevation myocardial infarction. Our study aimed to provide a hsTnT reference distribution and to assess the specificity of the 14 ng/L cut-off value in the mobile population ≥70 years of age.

DESIGN

A cross-sectional analysis was performed in the German AugUR study (Altersbezogene Untersuchungen zur Gesundheit der University of Regensburg).

SETTING

Study population was the mobile population aged 70+ years living in the city and county of Regensburg, Germany.

PARTICIPANTS

A random sample was derived from the local population registries of residence. Of the 5644 individuals invited, 1133 participated (response ratio=20.1%). All participants came to the study centre and were mentally and physically mobile to conduct the protocol (face-to-face interview, blood draw and standardised transthoracic echocardiography). None of the participants was in an acute state of myocardial infarction.

RESULTS

Among the 1129 individuals with hsTnT measurements (overall median=10.0 ng/L(25th, 75th percentile)=(7.0, 15.0 ng/L)), hsTnT was higher among the older individuals and higher among men (men 70-74 years median=9.6 ng/L (7.2, 13.1 ng/L); men 90-95 years median=21.2 ng/L (14.6, 26.0 ng/L); women 70-74 years median=6.3 ng/L (4.7, 8.7 ng/L); and women 90-95 years median=18.0 ng/L (11.0, 21.0 ng/L)). In participants with impaired kidney function (eGFR_crea <60 mL/min/1.73 m²), hsTnT was elevated (median=13.6 ng/L (9.4, 20.6 ng/L)).Specificity of recommended upper reference limit, 14 ng/L, is 68%. Most false positives were among men aged >79 years (specificity=34%). In a healthy subgroup (n=96, none of the following: overt heart disease, impaired renal function, blood pressure >160/100 mm Hg, left ventricular hypertrophy and diastolic/systolic dysfunction), specificity was 90%.

CONCLUSION

In the elderly population without acute myocardial infarction, hsTnT further increases with age showing different levels for men and women. The specificity of the 14 ng/L cut-off is considerably lower than 99%, even in healthy subjects.