Long-term effectiveness of one-time endoscopic screening for esophageal cancer: A community-based study in rural China

Assessment of the participation rate and effectiveness of upper gastrointestinal cancer screening in China: a multicenter population-based screening study

This study estimated the participation rate and effectiveness of endoscopic screening of upper gastrointestinal cancer (UGIC) in China.From 2014 to 2015, we recruited 192805 adults from seven cities in China to build a prospective cohort for UGIC screening, including esophageal cancer and gastric cancer. Overall, 39991 participants were at high risk for UGIC according to an established risk score system and were recommended for endoscopic examination. Participation rates were reported, and their associated factors were explored. After inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) based on propensity scores, Poisson regression was used to estimate the incidence rate ratio (IRR) and 95%CI for UGIC incidence and mortality between screened and non-screened groups from cohort entry until 31 December 2021.10442 participants underwent endoscopy, giving a participation rate of 26.1%. Higher participation was observed among individuals with higher education levels, history of upper gastrointestinal diseases, and family history of cancer. After a median follow-up of 6.8 years (interquartile range 6.7-6.9), UGIC incidences after IPTW were 94.6 per 100000 person-years in the screened group and 84.7 per 100000 person-years in the non-screened group. The weighted UGIC mortality rates were 13.1 and 33.4 per 100 000 person-years, respectively. The screened group had significantly lower UGIC mortality than the non-screened group, with a weighted IRR of 0.39 (95%CI 0.19-0.82).Participation in endoscopic screening among a high-risk UGIC population in China was low. We found that one-time endoscopic screening significantly reduced mortality caused by UGIC.

Effect of an Endoscopy Screening on Upper Gastrointestinal Cancer Mortality: A Community-Based Multicenter Cluster Randomized Clinical Trial

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Population-based observational studies suggest that endoscopic screening may reduce upper gastrointestinal cancer mortality. We aimed to quantify the effect of endoscopy screening.

METHODS

This is a community-based, multicenter, cluster randomized clinical trial conducted in both high-risk and non-high-risk areas of China. Randomization and recruitment occurred between 2015 and 2017, with follow-up conducted until 2022. The intervention was an invitation to receive endoscopic screening, as opposed to receiving usual care (unscreened). In non-high-risk areas, only participants assessed as high-risk by risk scores in the screening group were invited for endoscopic screening. The primary outcome was the cumulative risk of death from upper gastrointestinal cancer, adjusted for baseline characteristics and cluster effects.

RESULTS

A total of 234,635 participants were included in the intention-to-screen analysis, with a median age of 52 years. In high-risk areas, 64,836 individuals from 81 clusters were randomized to the screening group, and 59,379 individuals from 82 clusters were randomized to the control group. In non-high-risk areas, 58,367 individuals from 92 clusters were randomized to the screening group, 52,053 individuals from 90 clusters were randomized to the control group. Among high-risk areas, 480 (adjusted cumulative risk, 0.77%) died due to upper gastrointestinal cancers within 7.5 years in the screening group vs 545 (0.99%) deaths in the control group (risk ratio, 0.78; 95% confidence interval, 0.66-0.91). Among non-high-risk areas, adjusted risk was 0.26% (146 deaths) in the screening group and 0.30% (149 deaths) in the control group (risk ratio, 0.86; 95% confidence interval, 0.65-1.13).

CONCLUSIONS

An invitation to endoscopic screening reduced upper gastrointestinal cancer mortality in high-risk areas. In non-high-risk areas, an invitation to endoscopic screening based on risk scores did not significantly decrease upper gastrointestinal cancer deaths, but longer follow-up time was required. (Chinese Clinical Trial Registry Identifier: ChiCTR-EOR-16008577.).

Effectiveness of Risk-Adapted Upper Gastrointestinal Cancer Screening in China: Prospective Cohort Study

Background

Previous studies have proved the effectiveness of endoscopic screening in rural areas; however, long-term, high-quality evidence regarding the effectiveness of risk-adapted upper gastrointestinal cancer (UGC) sequential screening strategies in resource-rich regions is currently lacking.

Objective

The objectives were to validate the effectiveness of risk-adapted sequential screening strategies in UGC prevention and control and assess the potential of sequential screening to lower mortality rates.

Methods

Based on the Cancer Screening Program in Urban China, a prospective, large-scale cohort study based on population was conducted to recruit individuals from 4 cities in China from 2013-2019. Those identified as having a high risk of UGC according to a validated risk-score model were advised to undergo endoscopy tests. Follow-up outcomes were tracked until June 2021. Incidence of UGC, UGC-related mortality, and all-cause mortality were evaluated between the screened and nonscreened cohorts.

Results

The study included 153,079 participants at baseline. In total, 113,916 (74.42%) of the participants were designated as low risk of UGC. The remaining 39,163 (25.68%) participants were deemed to be at high risk of UGC and were offered gastroscopy tests. Among the high-risk participants, 9627 (compliance rate 24.6%) adhered to the gastroscopy tests. Over a median follow-up of 6.05 (IQR 3.06-7.06) years, 622 UGC cases, 180 UGC deaths, and 1958 all-cause death cases were traced. The screened cohort exhibited the highest cumulative incidence of UGC (119.2 per 100,000 person-years), followed by the nonscreened and low-risk cohorts. Obvious reductions in both all-cause mortality and UGC mortality were observed between those who undertook screening (153.7 and 4.7 per 100,000 person-years, respectively) and the nonscreened group (245.3 and 27 per 100,000 person-years, respectively). The screening population showed a significant 36% and 82% reduction in both all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 0.64, 95% CI 0.49-0.83, P<.001) and UGC mortality (HR 0.18, 95% CI 0.04-0.74, P=.02), respectively, compared to the nonscreened group. Reductions of 35% in all-cause mortality (HR 0.65, 95% CI 0.49-0.86, P=.003) and 81% in UGC mortality (HR 0.19, 95% CI 0.05-0.80, P=.02) were observed in participants aged older than 55 years in the screened group compared to the nonscreened group. The reductions in all-cause mortality and UGC mortality were statistically significant in males (all-cause mortality: HR 0.64, 95% CI 0.47-0.88, P=.005; UGC mortality: HR 0.10, 95% CI 0.01-0.72, P=.02), but significant reductions were not observed in females (all P values were >.05).

Conclusions

Our study suggests the significance of one-off risk-adapted UGC screening in reducing both all-cause mortality and UGC mortality, particularly among high-risk individuals, indicating its effectiveness in UGC prevention and management.

Effects of health education on screening rate of first-degree relatives of cancer patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To synthesize the effects of educational intervention on the screening rate of first-degree relatives of cancer patients.

METHODS

A total of eight Chinese and English databases were searched (PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, CINAHL, Web of Science, Scopus, Medline and China Biology Medicine disc) from the time of library establishment to June 2023, for randomized controlled trials investigating the effects of educational intervention on screening rate of first-degree relatives of cancer patients. Two researchers independently screened and evaluated the quality of studies. RevMan 5.3 software was used to calculate the pooled effect size.

RESULTS

Thirteen studies involving 5628 participants were chosen to include in the meta-analysis. The results revealed that health education can increase screening rate of first-degree relatives of cancer patients (RR = 1.39, 95% CI = 1.16-1.65, P = 0.0002). The effect shown after short-term follow-up (≤6 months) was insignificant in terms of improving screening rate (RR = 1.46, 95% CI = 0.94-2.26, P = 0.09), but after long-term follow-up (＞6 months) the improvement was greater (RR = 1.37, 95% CI = 1.13-1.65, P = 0.002).

CONCLUSION

Health education is effective in increasing the screening rate of first-degree relatives of cancer patients. The effect is more evident after long-term than short-term follow-up.

Influences of Propofol, Ciprofol and Remimazolam on Dreaming During Anesthesia for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy: A Randomized Double-Blind Parallel-Design Trial

Purpose

To compare the influences of propofol, ciprofol and remimazolam on dreaming during painless gastrointestinal endoscopy.

Methods

This study was a single-center, prospective, parallel-design, double-blind, randomized clinical trial. Between May 2023 and October 2023, patients undergoing elective painless gastrointestinal endoscopy were recruited and randomly allocated into one of the three groups. Demographic data, intraoperative information, incidence of dreaming, insufficient anesthesia and intraoperative awareness, type of dream, patient satisfaction score, adverse events, and improvement of sleep quality were collected.

Results

The difference in incidence of dreaming among the three groups was not significant (33.33% vs 48.33% vs 41.67%, p=0.061). The number of patients with intraoperative hypotension in the propofol group was larger than that of the remimazolam group (32 vs 12, p=0.001). However, the cases of intraoperative hypotension between propofol group and ciprofol group or ciprofol group and remimazolam group were comparable (32 vs 22, p=0.122; 22 vs 12, p=0.064). The percentage of insufficient anesthesia between propofol group and remimazolam group was significant (13.33% vs 1.67%, p=0.001), while no statistical difference was detected between propofol group and remimazolam group or ciprofol group and remimazolam group (13.33% vs 5.00%, p=0.025; 5.00% vs 1.67%, p=0.150). The ability of propofol to improve sleep quality at 1st post-examination day was significantly better than that of remimazolam (86.21% vs 72.88%, p=0.015), while it was not significant between propofol group and ciprofol group or ciprofol group and remimazolam group (86.21% vs 80.36%, p=0.236; 72.88% vs. 72.88%, p=0.181). Incidence of intraoperative awareness, intraoperative hypoxia, type of dream, satisfaction score, adverse events during recovery, and sleep improvement on the 7th post-examination day was not significant among the groups.

Conclusion

Anesthesia with propofol, ciprofol and remimazolam, respectively, for gastrointestinal endoscopy did not induce statistical difference in the incidence of dreaming, despite that all of them are more likely to induce pleasant dreams.

Effectiveness of Endoscopic Screening on Esophageal Cancer Incidence and Mortality: A 9-Year Report of the Endoscopic Screening for Esophageal Cancer in China (ESECC) Randomized Trial

PURPOSE

To evaluate the effectiveness of endoscopic screening against incidence of and mortality from esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC).

METHODS

From January 2012 to September 2016, we conducted a community-based cluster randomized controlled trial involving permanent residents age 45-69 years in a high-risk region for ESCC in northern China. A total of 668 targeted villages were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to the screening group (offered Lugol's chromoendoscopy) or control group (no screening). Intention-to-treat and per-protocol analyses were performed to compare esophageal cancer (EC) incidence and mortality between the two groups. The per-protocol analysis adjusted for nonadherence to the screening procedure.

RESULTS

A total of 33,847 participants were included in the analysis: 17,104 in the screening group, 15,165 (88.7%) of whom underwent screening, and 16,743 in the control group. During a maximum follow-up of 9 years, EC incidence in the screening and control groups were 60.9 and 72.5 per 100,000 person-years, respectively; mortality in the screening and control groups were 29.7 and 32.4 per 100,000 person-years, respectively. Compared with the control group, the incidence and mortality of the screening group reduced by 19% (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.81 [95% CI, 0.60 to 1.09]) and 18% (aHR, 0.82 [95% CI, 0.53 to 1.26]), respectively, in the intention-to-treat analysis; and by 22% (aHR, 0.78 [95% CI, 0.56 to 1.10]) and 21% (aHR, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.49 to 1.30]), respectively, in the per-protocol analysis.

CONCLUSION

With a 9-year follow-up, our trial suggests that chromoendoscopic screening induces modest reductions in EC incidence and mortality. A more efficient strategy for EC screening and subsequent patient management should be established to guarantee the effectiveness of endoscopic screening.

Performance of Prediction Models for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma in General Population: A Systematic Review and External Validation Study

INTRODUCTION

Prediction models for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) need to be proven effective in the target population before they can be applied to population-based endoscopic screening to improve cost-effectiveness. We have systematically reviewed ESCC prediction models applicable to the general population and performed external validation and head-to-head comparisons in a large multicenter prospective cohort including 5 high-risk areas of China (Fei Cheng, Lin Zhou, Ci Xian, Yang Zhong, and Yan Ting).

METHODS

Models were identified through a systematic review and validated in a large population-based multicenter prospective cohort that included 89,753 participants aged 40-69 years who underwent their first endoscopic examination between April 2017 and March 2021 and were followed up until December 31, 2022. Model performance in external validation was estimated based on discrimination and calibration. Discrimination was assessed by C-statistic (concordance statistic), and calibration was assessed by calibration plot and Hosmer-Lemeshow test.

RESULTS

The systematic review identified 15 prediction models that predicted severe dysplasia and above lesion (SDA) or ESCC in the general population, of which 11 models (4 SDA and 7 ESCC) were externally validated. The C-statistics ranged from 0.67 (95% confidence interval 0.66-0.69) to 0.70 (0.68-0.71) of the SDA models, and the highest was achieved by Liu et al (2020) and Liu et al (2022). The C-statistics ranged from 0.51 (0.48-0.54) to 0.74 (0.71-0.77), and Han et al (2023) had the best discrimination of the ESCC models. Most models were well calibrated after recalibration because the calibration plots coincided with the x = y line.

DISCUSSION

Several prediction models showed moderate performance in external validation, and the prediction models may be useful in screening for ESCC. Further research is needed on model optimization, generalization, implementation, and health economic evaluation.

Endoscopic screening of the upper gastrointestinal tract for second primary tumors in patients with head and neck cancer in a Western country

BACKGROUND

Patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) can develop second primary tumors (SPTs) in the esophagus. Endoscopic screening could lead to detection of SPTs at early stages and improve survival.

METHODS

We performed a prospective endoscopic screening study in patients with curably treated HNSCC diagnosed between January 2017-July 2021 in a Western country. Screening was performed synchronously (< 6 months) or metachronously (≥ 6 months) after HNSCC diagnosis. Routine imaging for HNSCC consisted of flexible transnasal endoscopy with positron emission tomography/computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging, depending on primary HNSCC location. The primary outcome was prevalence of SPTs, defined as presence of esophageal high grade dysplasia or squamous cell carcinoma.

RESULTS

202 patients (mean age 65 years, 80.7 % male) underwent 250 screening endoscopies. HNSCC was located in the oropharynx (31.9 %), hypopharynx (26.9 %), larynx (22.2 %), and oral cavity (18.5 %). Endoscopic screening was performed within 6 months (34.0 %), 6 months to 1 year (8.0 %), 1-2 years (33.6 %), and 2-5 years (24.4 %) after HNSCC diagnosis. We detected 11 SPTs in 10 patients (5.0 %, 95 %CI 2.4 %-8.9 %) during synchronous (6/85) and metachronous (5/165) screening. Most patients had early stage SPTs (90 %) and were treated with curative intent with endoscopic resection (80 %). No SPTs in screened patients were detected with routine imaging for HNSCC before endoscopic screening.

CONCLUSION

In 5 % of patients with HNSCC, an SPT was detected with endoscopic screening. Endoscopic screening should be considered in selected HNSCC patients to detect early stage SPTs, based on highest SPT risk and life expectancy according to HNSCC and comorbidities.

Changes in Geographic Variation and Socioeconomic Inequalities in Esophageal Cancer Mortality in China, 1973-2017

BACKGROUND

Geographic variability in esophageal cancer has been reported in China, but data are lacking at the local level. We aimed to investigate changes in disparities in esophageal cancer-related mortality among Chinese counties and whether county-level socioeconomic status was associated with this variation.

METHODS

We used data from a nationwide survey and population-based cancer registries to calculate esophageal cancer-related mortality rates for 782 Chinese counties for the periods of 1973-1975 and 2015-2017. We performed hotspot analysis to identify spatial clusters. We used a multivariable negative binomial regression model to estimate the associations between county-level socioeconomic factors and mortality.

RESULTS

From 1973-1975 to 2015-2017, the age-standardized esophageal cancer-related mortality rate decreased from 27 to 8 per 100,000 person-years in China. By county, 577 (74%) of 782 counties experienced decreasing mortality. Geographic disparities in mortality substantially narrowed, with the gap in mortality rates between 90th and 10th percentile counties decreasing from 55 per 100,000 person-years in 1973-1975 to 16 in 2015-2017. However, clusters of elevated rates persisted across north-central China. Rurality [adjusted mortality rate ratio (MRR) 1.15; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.10-1.21], per capita gross domestic product (adjusted MRR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.91-0.98), and percentage of people with a high-school diploma (adjusted MRR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.84-0.87) in a county were significantly associated esophageal cancer-related mortality rates.

CONCLUSIONS

China has made substantial progress in reducing esophageal cancer-related mortality and disparities, but the intercounty differences remain large.

IMPACT

Continued efforts are needed to address the geographical and socioeconomic disparities in esophageal cancer.

Relationship between esophageal squamous cell carcinoma risk and alcohol-related ALDH2 and ADH1B polymorphisms: Evidence from a meta-analysis and Mendelian randomization analysis

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have shown that ALDH2 and ADH1B genes may be associated with alcohol metabolism and the risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), with inconsistent results. This meta-analysis aimed at comprehensively assessing the associations between ALDH2 and ADH1B polymorphisms and the risk of ESCC to synthesize and clarify the evidence.

METHODS

We calculated summary estimates of the associations between four genetic variants (rs671 and rs674 in ALDH2, and rs1229984 and rs1042026 in ADH1B) and the ESCC risk across 23 publications in the additive model and allelic model. Venice criteria, Bayesian false discovery probability (BFDP), and false-positive reporting probability (FPRP) were used to assess the strength of epidemiological evidence. Heterogeneity among studies was evaluated by using the Higgin's I2 statistic, and publication bias was assessed by using funnel plots and Begg's test. A Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis was performed to determine the causal association between alcohol intake and esophageal cancer risk. Data from the HaploReg v4.1 and PolyPhen-2 were analyzed for functional annotations.

RESULTS

Of the four genetic variants, rs671 of ALDH2 was associated with a significantly reduced risk of ESCC (OR: 0.60, 95% CI: 0.50-0.73), whereas rs1229984 of ADH1B was associated with a significantly increased risk (2.50, 95% CI: 1.70-3.69) in the additive model. In the allelic model, the variant rs1229984 of ADH1B also increased the risk of ESCC (OR: 1.50; 95% CI: 1.21-1.87). The result for the variant rs671 was considered as strong epidemiological evidence. Functional annotations identified that the four variants were related to the enhancer histone marks and motif changes. The other two variants were not associated with the ESCC risk (rs674 of ALDH2 OR: 1.22, 95% CI: 0.71-2.12; rs1042026 of ADH1B OR: 1.28, 95% CI: 0.52-3.14) in the additive model. The MR analysis did not find a causal effect of alcohol on the esophageal cancer risk.

CONCLUSIONS

The results showed that ADH1B rs1229984 was significantly associated with an increased the risk of ESCC.

Linked color imaging vs Lugol chromoendoscopy for esophageal squamous cell cancer and precancerous lesion screening: A noninferiority study

BACKGROUND

Lugol chromoendoscopy (LCE) has served as a standard screening technique in high-risk patients with esophageal cancer. Nevertheless, LCE is not suitable for general population screening given its side effects. Linked color imaging (LCI) is a novel image-enhanced endoscopic technique that can distinguish subtle diff-erences in mucosal color.

AIM

To compare the diagnostic performance of LCI with LCE in detecting esophageal squamous cell cancer and precancerous lesions and to evaluate whether LCE can be replaced by LCI in detecting esophageal neoplastic lesions.

METHODS

In this prospective study, we enrolled 543 patients who underwent white light imaging (WLI), LCI and LCE successively. We compared the sensitivity and specificity of LCI and LCE in the detection of esophageal neoplastic lesions. Clinicopathological features and color analysis of lesions were assessed.

RESULTS

In total, 43 patients (45 neoplastic lesions) were analyzed. Among them, 36 patients (38 neoplastic lesions) were diagnosed with LCI, and 39 patients (41 neoplastic lesions) were diagnosed with LCE. The sensitivity of LCI was similar to that of LCE (83.7% vs 90.7%, P = 0.520), whereas the specificity of LCI was greater than that of LCE (92.4% vs 87.0%, P = 0.007). The LCI procedure time in the esophageal examination was significantly shorter than that of LCE [42 (34, 50) s vs 160 (130, 189) s, P < 0.001]. The color difference between the lesion and surrounding mucosa in LCI was significantly greater than that observed with WLI. However, the color difference in LCI was similar in different pathological types of esophageal squamous cell cancer.

CONCLUSION

LCI offers greater specificity than LCE in the detection of esophageal squamous cell cancer and precancerous lesions, and LCI represents a promising screening strategy for general populations.

Epidemiology of esophageal cancer in 2020 and projections to 2030 and 2040

Esophageal cancer is a familiar malignancy with high incidence and mortality, and the overall prognosis is poor. The numbers of cases of and deaths from esophageal cancer have risen rapidly in recent decades. It is one of the most malignant cancers, with more than 0.6 million new cases and 0.54 million deaths worldwide in 2020. Here, we present the global epidemiology of esophageal cancer in 2020 and projections to 2030 and 2040 at different geographical levels of continents, regions and countries, and analyze them by gender, race, geographic region and human development index. We summarize the prospects for the esophageal cancer burden and risk factors in different areas, which will be useful for global esophageal cancer clinical therapy and cancer control planning.

[Highlights from the 2021 ASCO and ESMO annual meetings on radiotherapy of head and neck cancer]

At this year's annual meetings of the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) and the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO), several studies on radiotherapy of locally advanced head and neck cancer were presented. For the indication of definitive radiochemotherapy, particularly the administration of immune checkpoint inhibitors concomitant to radiotherapy was investigated. In the phase III GORTEC-REACH trial, combined inhibition of epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) and programmed death-ligand (PD-L1) concomitant to radiotherapy of locally advanced head and neck cancer was inferior to platinum-based chemoradiotherapy. However, this therapeutic approach may be more efficient than radiotherapy with simultaneous EGFR inhibition alone. The concept of the phase II CheckRad-CD8 trial with induction chemoimmunotherapy followed by chemotherapy-free radioimmunotherapy after appropriate patient selection also proved to be highly efficient. In initial phase II trials, dose de-escalation of radiotherapy seems feasible for HPV-positive oropharyngeal cancer after appropriate patient selection both postoperatively (ECOG-ACRIN E3311 trial) and after induction therapy (Optima II trial). However, dose de-escalation should currently not be performed outside of clinical trials. In addition, first studies indicate a benefit of functional imaging (diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging [MRI] or F‑fluoromisonidazole positron-emission tomography [FMISO-PET]) to establish personalized dose concepts in radiotherapy.

A global assessment of recent trends in gastrointestinal cancer and lifestyle-associated risk factors

BACKGROUND

Gastrointestinal (GI) cancers were responsible for 26.3% of cancer cases and 35.4% of deaths worldwide in 2018. This study aimed to analyze the global incidence, mortality, prevalence, and contributing risk factors of the 6 major GI cancer entities [esophageal cancer (EC), gastric cancer (GC), liver cancer (LC), pancreatic cancer (PC), colon cancer, and rectal cancer].

METHODS

Using the Global Cancer Observatory and the Global Health Observatory databases, we reviewed the current GI cancer incidence, prevalence, and mortality, analyzed the association of GI cancer prevalence with national human development indices (HDIs), identified the contributing risk factors, and estimated developing age- and sex-specific trends in incidence and mortality.

RESULTS

In 2020, the trend in age-standardized rate of incidence of GI cancers closely mirrored that of mortality, with the highest rates of LC, EC, and GC in Asia and of colorectal cancer (CRC) and PC mainly in Europe. Incidence and mortality were positively, but the mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) was inversely correlated with the national HDI levels. High MIRs in developing countries likely reflected the lack of preventive strategies and effective treatments. GI cancer prevalence was highest in Europe and was also positively correlated with HDIs and lifestyle-associated risk factors, such as alcohol consumption, smoking, obesity, insufficient physical activity, and high blood cholesterol level, but negatively correlated with hypertension and diabetes. Incidences of EC were consistently and those of GC mostly decreasing, whereas incidences of CRC were increasing in most countries/regions, especially in the younger populations. Incidences of LC and PC were also increasing in all age-gender populations except for younger males. Mortalities were decreasing for EC, GC, and CRC in most countries/regions, and age-specific trends were observed in PC and LC with a decrease in the younger but an increase in the older population.

CONCLUSIONS

On the global scale, higher GI cancer burden was accompanied, for the most part, by factors associated with the so-called Western lifestyle reflected by high and very high national HDI levels. In countries/regions with very high HDI levels, patients survived longer, and increasing GI cancer cases were observed with increasing national HDI levels. Optimizing GI cancer prevention and improving therapies, especially for patients with comorbid metabolic diseases, are thus urgently recommended.

Development and Validation of an Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Risk Prediction Model for Rural Chinese: Multicenter Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

There are rare prediction models for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) for rural Chinese population. We aimed to develop and validate a prediction model for ESCC based on a cohort study for the population.

METHODS

Data of 115,686 participants were collected from esophageal cancer (EC) early diagnosis and treatment of cancer program as derivation cohort while data of 54,750 participants were collected as validation cohort. Risk factors considered included age, sex, smoking status, alcohol drinking status, body mass index (BMI), tea drinking status, marital status, annual household income, source of drinking water, education level, and diet habit. Cox proportional hazards model was used to develop ESCC prediction model at 5 years. Calibration ability, discrimination ability, and decision curve analysis were analyzed in both derivation and validation cohort. A score model was developed based on prediction model.

RESULTS

One hundred eighty-six cases were diagnosed during 556,949.40 person-years follow-up in the derivation cohort while 120 cases from 277,302.70 in the validation cohort. Prediction model included the following variables: age, sex, alcohol drinking status, BMI, tea drinking status, and fresh fruit. The model had good discrimination and calibration performance: R 2, D statistic, and Harrell's C statistic of prediction model were 43.56%, 1.70, and 0.798 in derivation cohort and 45.19%, 1.62, and 0.787 in validation cohort. The calibration analysis showed good coherence between predicted probabilities and observed probabilities while decision curve analysis showed clinical usefulness. The score model was as follows: age (3 for 45-49 years old; 4 for 50-54 years old; 7 for 55-59 years old; 9 for 60-64 years; 10 for 65-69 years), sex (5 for men), BMI (1 for ≤25), alcohol drinking status (2 for alcohol drinkers), tea drinking status (2 for tea drinkers), and fresh fruit (2 for never) and showed good discrimination ability with area under the curve and its 95% confidence interval of 0.792 (0.761,0.822) in the deviation cohort and 0.773 (0.736,0.811) in the validation cohort. The calibration analysis showed great coherence between predicted probabilities and observed probabilities.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and validated an ESCC prediction model using cohort study with good discrimination and calibration capability which can be used for EC screening for rural Chinese population.

Estimated Cost-effectiveness of Endoscopic Screening for Upper Gastrointestinal Tract Cancer in High-Risk Areas in China

IMPORTANCE

Upper gastrointestinal tract cancer, including esophageal and gastric cancers, in China accounts for 50% of the global burden. Endoscopic screening may be associated with a decreased incidence of and mortality from upper gastrointestinal tract cancer.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of endoscopic screening for esophageal and gastric cancers among people aged 40 to 69 years in areas of China where the risk of these cancers is high.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

For this economic evaluation, a Markov model was constructed for initial screening at different ages from a health care system perspective, and 5 endoscopic screening strategies with different frequencies (once per lifetime and every 10 years, 5 years, 3 years, and 2 years) were evaluated. The study was conducted between January 1, 2019, and October 31, 2020. Model parameters were estimated based on this project, government documents, and published literature. For each initial screening age (40-44, 45-49, 50-54, 55-59, 60-64, and 65-69 years), a closed cohort of 100 000 participants was assumed to enter the model and follow the alternative strategies.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Cost-effectiveness was measured by calculating the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), and the willingness-to-pay threshold was assumed to be 3 times the per capita gross domestic product in China (US $10 276). Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the robustness of model findings.

RESULTS

The study included a hypothetical cohort of 100 000 individuals aged 40 to 69 years. All 5 screening strategies were associated with improved effectiveness by 1087 to 10 362 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and increased costs by US $3 299 000 to $22 826 000 compared with no screening over a lifetime, leading to ICERs of US $1343 to $3035 per QALY. Screening at a higher frequency was associated with an increase in QALYs and costs; ICERs for higher frequency screening compared with the next-lower frequency screening were between US $1087 and $4511 per QALY. Screening every 2 years would be the most cost-effective strategy, with probabilities of 90% to 98% at 3 times the per capita gross domestic product of China. The model was the most sensitive to utility scores of esophageal cancer- or gastric cancer-related health states and compliance with screening.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The findings suggest that combined endoscopic screening for esophageal and gastric cancers may be cost-effective in areas of China where the risk of these cancers is high; screening every 2 years would be the optimal strategy. These data may be useful for development of policies targeting the prevention and control of upper gastrointestinal tract cancer in China.