Vulnerability of Subarctic and Arctic breeding birds

Predicted Future Benefits for an Endemic Rodent in the Irano-Turanian Region

Climate change is expected to have an impact on the geographical distribution ranges of species. Endemic species and those with a restricted geographic range may be especially vulnerable. The Persian jird (Meriones persicus) is an endemic rodent inhabiting the mountainous areas of the Irano-Turanian region, where future desertification may form a threat to the species. In this study, the species distribution modelling algorithm MaxEnt was used to assess the impact of future climate change on the geographic distribution range of the Persian jird. Predictions were made under two Representative Concentration Pathways and five different climate models for the years 2050 and 2070. It was found that both bioclimatic variables and land use variables were important in determining potential suitability of the region for the species to occur. In most cases, the future predictions showed an expansion of the geographic range of the Persian jird which indicates that the species is not under immediate threat. There are however uncertainties with regards to its current range. Predictions may therefore be an over or underestimation of the total suitable area. Further research is thus needed to confirm the current geographic range of the Persian jird to be able to improve assessments of the impact of future climate change.

An uncertain future for the endemic Galliformes of the Caucasus

Impacts of climate change are already evident in ecosystems worldwide. High-latitude and altitude regions are at greatest risk because the effects of climate change are greater in these regions, and species from these areas have limited ability to track their climate envelopes. The Caucasian snowcock (Tetraogallus caucasicus) and the Caucasian grouse (Lyrurus mlokosiewiczi) are both high-altitude specialists that are endemic to a restricted range in the Caucasus mountains of Europe. Little research has been performed to determine the status of the populations or the potential impacts of climate change. We investigated how climate and land use change may impact both species in future and determined whether their life history traits may increase their vulnerability using a combined exposure and trait-based index. We compared several climate models, and in all instances, both species showed drastic range contractions although the extent of the contraction varied with each model. Traits like habitat specialism, ground nesting and incubation period meant that both species may be considered "most vulnerable" in the exposure and trait-based index. Given that both species already occur near the maximum elevations of the Caucasus, and that they lack any dispersal capabilities due to the isolation from alternative mountainous areas, research efforts need to be prioritized to improve our knowledge about their population status, to monitor future trends and to begin developing species action plans that conserve these endemic and iconic species of Europe. Both species are flagship and umbrella species and may serve as indicator species, their protection may therefore benefit a whole range of other species inhabiting this vulnerable Alpine ecosystem. Especially the Caucasian grouse has a high aesthetic value and is favoured by hunters in the region. The potential demise of this species may therefore also be negative for local communities.

Northern protected areas will become important refuges for biodiversity tracking suitable climates

The Northern Biodiversity Paradox predicts that, despite its globally negative effects on biodiversity, climate change will increase biodiversity in northern regions where many species are limited by low temperatures. We assessed the potential impacts of climate change on the biodiversity of a northern network of 1,749 protected areas spread over >600,000 km² in Quebec, Canada. Using ecological niche modeling, we calculated potential changes in the probability of occurrence of 529 species to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on (1) species gain, loss, turnover, and richness in protected areas, (2) representativity of protected areas, and (3) extent of species ranges located in protected areas. We predict a major species turnover over time, with 49% of total protected land area potentially experiencing a species turnover >80%. We also predict increases in regional species richness, representativity of protected areas, and species protection provided by protected areas. Although we did not model the likelihood of species colonising habitats that become suitable as a result of climate change, northern protected areas should ultimately become important refuges for species tracking climate northward. This is the first study to examine in such details the potential effects of climate change on a northern protected area network.