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Kastl B, Obedzinski M, Carlson SM, Boucher WT, Grantham TE. Migration in drought: Receding streams contract the seaward migration window of endangered salmon. Ecosphere 2022. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.4295] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/25/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Brian Kastl
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management University of California Berkeley California USA
| | | | - Stephanie M. Carlson
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management University of California Berkeley California USA
| | | | - Theodore E. Grantham
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management University of California Berkeley California USA
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2
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Wohner PJ, Duarte A, Wikert J, Cavallo B, Zeug SC, Peterson JT. Integrating monitoring and optimization modeling to inform flow decisions for Chinook salmon smolts. Ecol Modell 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.110058] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
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3
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Colombano DD, Carlson SM, Hobbs JA, Ruhi A. Four decades of climatic fluctuations and fish recruitment stability across a marine-freshwater gradient. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:5104-5120. [PMID: 35583053 PMCID: PMC9545339 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16266] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/28/2021] [Revised: 04/13/2022] [Accepted: 05/01/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Investigating the effects of climatic variability on biological diversity, productivity, and stability is key to understanding possible futures for ecosystems under accelerating climate change. A critical question for estuarine ecosystems is, how does climatic variability influence juvenile recruitment of different fish species and life histories that use estuaries as nurseries? Here we examined spatiotemporal abundance trends and environmental responses of 18 fish species that frequently spend the juvenile stage rearing in the San Francisco Estuary, CA, USA. First, we constructed multivariate autoregressive state-space models using age-0 fish abundance, freshwater flow (flow), and sea surface temperature data (SST) collected over four decades. Next, we calculated coefficients of variation (CV) to assess portfolio effects (1) within and among species, life histories (anadromous, marine opportunist, or estuarine dependent), and the whole community; and (2) within and among regions of the estuary. We found that species abundances varied over space and time (increasing, decreasing, or dynamically stable); and in 83% of cases, in response to environmental conditions (wet/dry, cool/warm periods). Anadromous species responded strongly to flow in the upper estuary, marine opportunist species responded to flow and/or SST in the lower estuary, and estuarine dependent species had diverse responses across the estuary. Overall, the whole community when considered across the entire estuary had the lowest CV, and life histories and species provided strong biological insurance to the portfolio (2.4- to 3.5-fold increases in stability, respectively). Spatial insurance also increased stability, although to a lesser extent (up to 1.6-fold increases). Our study advances the notion that fish recruitment stability in estuaries is controlled by biocomplexity-life history diversity and spatiotemporal variation in the environment. However, intensified drought and marine heatwaves may increase the risk of multiple consecutive recruitment failures by synchronizing species dynamics and trajectories via Moran effects, potentially diminishing estuarine nursery function.
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Affiliation(s)
- Denise D. Colombano
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and ManagementUniversity of California BerkeleyBerkeleyCaliforniaUSA
| | - Stephanie M. Carlson
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and ManagementUniversity of California BerkeleyBerkeleyCaliforniaUSA
| | - James A. Hobbs
- Region 3 Bay‐Delta Stockton IEP OfficeCalifornia Department of Fish and WildlifeStocktonCaliforniaUSA
| | - Albert Ruhi
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and ManagementUniversity of California BerkeleyBerkeleyCaliforniaUSA
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4
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Spanjer AR, Gendaszek AS, Wulfkuhle EJ, Black RW, Jaeger KL. Assessing climate change impacts on Pacific salmon and trout using bioenergetics and spatiotemporal explicit river temperature predictions under varying riparian conditions. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0266871. [PMID: 35594277 PMCID: PMC9122258 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0266871] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/04/2021] [Accepted: 03/29/2022] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Pacific salmon and trout populations are affected by timber harvest, the removal and alteration of riparian vegetation, and the resulting physical changes to water quality, temperature, and associated delivery of high-quality terrestrial prey. Juvenile salmon and trout growth, a key predictor of survival, is poorly understood in the context of current and future (climate-change mediated) conditions, with resource managers needing information on how land use will impact future river conditions for these commercially and culturally important species. We used the Heat Source water temperature modeling framework to develop a spatiotemporal model to assess how riparian canopy and vegetation preservation and addition could influence river temperatures under future climate predictions in a coastal river fed by a moraine-dammed lake: the Quinault River in Washington State. The model predicted higher water temperatures under future carbon emission projections, representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, with varying magnitude based on different riparian vegetation scenarios. We used the daily average temperature output from these scenarios to predict potential juvenile fish growth using the Wisconsin bioenergetics model. A combination of riparian vegetation removal and continued high carbon emissions resulted in a predicted seven-day average daily maximum temperature (7DADM) increase of 1.7°C in the lower river by 2080; increases in riparian shading mitigate this 7DADM increase to only 0.9°C. Under the current thermal regime, bioenergetics modeling predicts juvenile fish lose weight in the lower river; this loss of potential growth worsens by an average of 20–83% in the lower river by 2080, increasing with the loss of riparian shading. This study assess the impact of riparian vegetation management on future thermal habitat for Pacific salmon and trout under warming climates and provide a useful spatially explicit modeling framework that managers can use to make decisions regarding riparian vegetation management and its mechanistic impact to water temperature and rearing juvenile fish.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrew R. Spanjer
- U.S. Geological Survey, Washington Water Science Center, Tacoma, WA, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Andrew S. Gendaszek
- U.S. Geological Survey, Washington Water Science Center, Tacoma, WA, United States of America
| | - Elyse J. Wulfkuhle
- Department of Natural Resources, Quinault Indian Nation, Taholah, WA, United States of America
| | - Robert W. Black
- U.S. Geological Survey, Washington Water Science Center, Tacoma, WA, United States of America
| | - Kristin L. Jaeger
- U.S. Geological Survey, Washington Water Science Center, Tacoma, WA, United States of America
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5
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Munsch SH, Greene CM, Mantua NJ, Satterthwaite WH. One hundred-seventy years of stressors erode salmon fishery climate resilience in California's warming landscape. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:2183-2201. [PMID: 35075737 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16029] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/05/2021] [Revised: 11/12/2021] [Accepted: 11/25/2021] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
People seek reliable natural resources despite climate change. Diverse habitats and biologies stabilize productivity against disturbances like climate, prompting arguments to promote climate-resilient resources by prioritizing complex, less-modified ecosystems. These arguments hinge on the hypothesis that simplifying and degrading ecosystems will reduce resources' climate resilience, a process liable to be cryptically evolving across landscapes and human generations, but rarely documented. Here, we examined the industrial era (post 1848) of California's Central Valley, chronicling the decline of a diversified, functional portfolio of salmon habitats and life histories and investigating for empirical evidence of lost climate resilience in its fishery. Present perspectives indicate that California's dynamic, warming climate overlaid onto its truncated, degraded habitat mosaic severely constrains its salmon fishery. We indeed found substantial climate constraints on today's fishery, but this reflected a shifted ecological baseline. During the early stages of a stressor legacy that transformed the landscape and -- often consequently -- compressed salmon life history expression, the fishery diffused impacts of dry years across a greater number of fishing years and depended less on cool spring-summer transitions. The latter are important given today's salmon habitats, salmon life histories, and resource management practices, but are vanishing with climate change while year-to-year variation in fishery performance is rising. These findings give empirical weight to the idea that human legacies influence ecosystems' climate resilience across landscapes and boundaries (e.g., land/sea). They also raise the question of whether some contemporary climate effects are recent and attributable not only to increasing climate stress, but to past and present human actions that erode resilience. In general, it is thus worth considering that management approaches that prioritize complex, less-modified ecosystems may stabilize productivity despite increasing climate stress and such protective actions may be required for some ecological services to persist into uncertain climate futures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stuart H Munsch
- Ocean Associates Inc., Under Contract to Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Correigh M Greene
- Fish Ecology Division, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Nathan J Mantua
- Fisheries Ecology Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, Santa Cruz, California, USA
| | - William H Satterthwaite
- Fisheries Ecology Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, Santa Cruz, California, USA
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6
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Perrin SW, van der Veen B, Golding N, Finstad AG. Modelling temperature-driven changes in species associations across freshwater communities. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:86-97. [PMID: 34668617 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15888] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/30/2021] [Accepted: 07/04/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Due to global climate change-induced shifts in species distributions, estimating changes in community composition through the use of Species Distribution Models has become a key management tool. Being able to determine how species associations change along environmental gradients is likely to be pivotal in exploring the magnitude of future changes in species' distributions. This is particularly important in connectivity-limited ecosystems, such as freshwater ecosystems, where increased human translocation is creating species associations over previously unseen environmental gradients. Here, we use a large-scale presence-absence dataset of freshwater fish from lakes across the Fennoscandian region in a Joint Species Distribution Model, to measure the effect of temperature on species associations. We identified a trend of negative associations between species tolerant of cold waters and those tolerant of warmer waters, as well as positive associations between several more warm-tolerant species, with these associations often shifting depending on local temperatures. Our results confirm that freshwater ecosystems can expect to see a large-scale shift towards communities dominated by more warm-tolerant species. While there remains much work to be done to predict exactly where and when local extinctions may take place, the model implemented provides a starting-point for the exploration of climate-driven community trends. This approach is especially informative in regards to determining which species associations are most central in shaping future community composition, and which areas are most vulnerable to local extinctions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sam Wenaas Perrin
- Centre of Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Natural History, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Bert van der Veen
- Department of Landscape and Biodiversity, Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research, Trondheim, Norway
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Nick Golding
- Telethon Kids Institute, Perth Children's Hospital, Nedlands, Western Australia, Australia
- Curtin University, Bentley, Western Australia, Australia
- Department of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
| | - Anders Gravbrøt Finstad
- Centre of Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Natural History, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
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7
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Arevalo E, Maire A, Tétard S, Prévost E, Lange F, Marchand F, Josset Q, Drouineau H. Does global change increase the risk of maladaptation of Atlantic salmon migration through joint modifications of river temperature and discharge? Proc Biol Sci 2021; 288:20211882. [PMID: 34875197 PMCID: PMC8651411 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2021.1882] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/03/2023] Open
Abstract
In freshwater ecosystems, water temperature and discharge are two intrinsically associated triggers of key events in the life cycle of aquatic organisms such as the migration of diadromous fishes. However, global changes have already profoundly altered the thermal and hydrological regimes of rivers, affecting the timing of fish migration as well as the environmental conditions under which it occurs. In this study, we focused on Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar), an iconic diadromous species whose individuals migrate between marine nursery areas and continental spawning grounds. An innovative multivariate method was developed to analyse long-term datasets of daily water temperature, discharge and both salmon juvenile downstream and adult upstream migrations in three French rivers (the Bresle, Oir and Nivelle rivers). While all three rivers have gradually warmed over the last 35 years, changes in discharge have been very heterogeneous. Juveniles more frequently used warmer temperatures to migrate. Adults migrating a few weeks before spawning more frequently used warm temperatures associated with high discharges. This has already led to modifications in preferential niches of both life stages and suggests a potential mismatch between these populations' ecological preference and changes in their local environment due to global change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elorri Arevalo
- INRAE, Unité EABX-Écosystèmes Aquatiques et Changements Globaux, HYNES (Irstea-EDF R&D), 50 avenue de Verdun, 33612 Cestas Cedex, France
| | - Anthony Maire
- EDF Recherche et Développement, Laboratoire National d'Hydraulique et Environnement, HYNES (Irstea-EDF R&D), 6 quai Watier, 78401 Chatou Cedex, France
| | - Stéphane Tétard
- ICEO Environnement, 220 rue des Ailes, 85440 Talmont-Saint-Hilaire, France
| | - Etienne Prévost
- Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, e2s UPPA, INRAE, ECOBIOP, Saint-Pée-sur-Nivelle, France
| | - Frédéric Lange
- Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, e2s UPPA, INRAE, ECOBIOP, Saint-Pée-sur-Nivelle, France
| | - Frédéric Marchand
- INRAE, Unité Expérimentale d'Écologie et d'Écotoxicologie Aquatique, 65, rue de Saint-Brieuc, 35042 Rennes CEDEX, France
| | - Quentin Josset
- UMR BOREA 7208, Muséum National D'Histoire Naturelle, Service des Stations Marines, 35800 Dinard, France.,MIAME - Management of Diadromous Fish in their Environment, OFB, INRAE, Institut Agro, UNIV PAU & PAYS ADOUR/E2S UPPA, Rennes, France.,Office Français de la Biodiversité, Direction Recherche et Appui Scientifique, Rue des Fontaines, 76260 Eu, France
| | - Hilaire Drouineau
- INRAE, Unité EABX-Écosystèmes Aquatiques et Changements Globaux, HYNES (Irstea-EDF R&D), 50 avenue de Verdun, 33612 Cestas Cedex, France
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8
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Sullaway GH, Shelton AO, Samhouri JF. Synchrony erodes spatial portfolios of an anadromous fish and alters availability for resource users. J Anim Ecol 2021; 90:2692-2703. [PMID: 34553382 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.13575] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/19/2021] [Accepted: 07/30/2021] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
Environmental forces can create spatially synchronous dynamics among nearby populations. However, increased climate variability, driven by anthropogenic climate change, will likely enhance synchrony among spatially disparate populations. Population synchrony may lead to greater fluctuations in abundance, but the consequences of population synchrony across multiple scales of biological organization, including impacts to putative competitors, dependent predators or human communities, are rarely considered in this context. Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha stocks distribute across the Northeast Pacific, creating spatially variable portfolios that support large ocean fisheries and marine mammal predators, such as killer whales Orcinus orca. We rely on a multi-population model that simulates Chinook salmon ocean distribution and abundance to understand spatial portfolios, or variability in abundance within and among ocean distribution regions, of Chinook salmon stocks across 17 ocean regions from Southeast Alaska to California. We found the expected positive correlation between the number of stocks in an ocean region and spatial portfolio strength; however, increased demographic synchrony eroded Chinook salmon spatial portfolios in the ocean. Moreover, we observed decreased resource availability within ocean fishery management jurisdictions but not within killer whale summer habitat. We found a strong portfolio effect across both Southern Resident and Northern Resident killer whale habitats that was relatively unaffected by increased demographic synchrony, likely a result of the large spatial area included in these habitats. However, within the areas of smaller fishing management jurisdictions we found a weakening of Chinook salmon portfolios and increased but inconsistent likelihood of low abundance years as demographic synchrony increased. We suggest that management and conservation actions that reduce spatial synchrony can enhance short-term ecosystem resilience by promoting the stabilizing effect multiple stocks have on aggregate Chinook salmon populations and overall resource availability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Genoa H Sullaway
- Lynker, under contract to Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Andrew O Shelton
- Conservation Biology Division, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Jameal F Samhouri
- Conservation Biology Division, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, WA, USA
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9
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Nobriga ML, Michel CJ, Johnson RC, Wikert JD. Coldwater fish in a warm water world: Implications for predation of salmon smolts during estuary transit. Ecol Evol 2021; 11:10381-10395. [PMID: 34367582 PMCID: PMC8328468 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.7840] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2020] [Revised: 06/07/2021] [Accepted: 06/10/2021] [Indexed: 11/05/2022] Open
Abstract
Predator-prey systems face intensifying pressure from human exploitation and a warming climate with implications for where and how natural resource management can successfully intervene. We hypothesized young salmon migrating to the Pacific Ocean face a seasonally intensifying predator gauntlet when warming water temperature intensifies a multiple predator effect (MPE) from Striped Bass Morone saxatilis and Largemouth Bass Micropterus salmoides. We evaluated this hypothesis using data synthesis and simulation modeling.Contemporary studies based on acoustically tagged fish reaffirmed older observations that Chinook Salmon smolts must transit the Delta before water temperature reaches 20°C or mortality will be nearly 100%. Striped Bass attack rates on tethered smolts were insensitive to distance from shore and water temperature, whereas Largemouth Bass attack rates were highest near shorelines in warm water, supporting the temporal aspect of the hypothesis. Whether the combined effects of the two predators produce an MPE remains unconfirmed due to limitations on quantifying salmon behavior.We used multiple simulation models to try to reconstruct the empirical relationship between smolt survival and water temperature. Simulations reinforced attack rate results, but could not recreate the temperature dependence in smolt survival except at higher than observed temperatures. We propose three hypotheses for why and recommend discerning among them should be a focus of research.We found significant linear relationships between monthly mean inflow to the Delta from each of its two largest tributaries and monthly mean water temperatures along associated salmon migration routes, but these relationships can be nonlinear, with most of the correlation occurring at low inflows when water temperature is largely controlled by air temperature and day length. As the global climate warms, changed circumstances in predator-prey relationships may present important challenges when managing species vulnerable to extinction in addition to presently more abundant species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthew L. Nobriga
- U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service San Francisco Bay‐Delta Fish and Wildlife OfficeSacramentoCAUSA
| | - Cyril J. Michel
- National Marine Fisheries ServiceSouthwest Fisheries Science CenterSanta CruzCAUSA
| | - Rachel C. Johnson
- Center for Watershed SciencesNational Marine Fisheries ServiceSouthwest Fisheries Science CenterDavisCAUSA
| | - John D. Wikert
- U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Lodi Fish and Wildlife OfficeLodiCAUSA
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10
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Gosselin JL, Buhle ER, Van Holmes C, Beer WN, Iltis S, Anderson JJ. Role of carryover effects in conservation of wild Pacific salmon migrating regulated rivers. Ecosphere 2021. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.3618] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/31/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Jennifer L. Gosselin
- School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences University of Washington 1122 NE Boat Street Seattle Washington 98105 USA
| | - Eric R. Buhle
- Biomark Applied Biological Services Boise Idaho 83702 USA
| | - Christopher Van Holmes
- School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences University of Washington 1122 NE Boat Street Seattle Washington 98105 USA
| | - W. Nicholas Beer
- School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences University of Washington 1122 NE Boat Street Seattle Washington 98105 USA
| | - Susannah Iltis
- School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences University of Washington 1122 NE Boat Street Seattle Washington 98105 USA
| | - James J. Anderson
- School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences University of Washington 1122 NE Boat Street Seattle Washington 98105 USA
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11
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Michel CJ, Notch JJ, Cordoleani F, Ammann AJ, Danner EM. Nonlinear survival of imperiled fish informs managed flows in a highly modified river. Ecosphere 2021. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.3498] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/02/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Cyril J. Michel
- Institute of Marine Sciences University of California, Santa Cruz Santa Cruz California95060USA
| | - Jeremy J. Notch
- Institute of Marine Sciences University of California, Santa Cruz Santa Cruz California95060USA
| | - Flora Cordoleani
- Institute of Marine Sciences University of California, Santa Cruz Santa Cruz California95060USA
| | - Arnold J. Ammann
- Southwest Fisheries Science Center – Fisheries Ecology Division National Marine Fisheries ServiceNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 110 McAllister Way Santa Cruz California95060USA
| | - Eric M. Danner
- Southwest Fisheries Science Center – Fisheries Ecology Division National Marine Fisheries ServiceNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 110 McAllister Way Santa Cruz California95060USA
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12
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Crozier LG, Burke BJ, Chasco BE, Widener DL, Zabel RW. Climate change threatens Chinook salmon throughout their life cycle. Commun Biol 2021; 4:222. [PMID: 33603119 PMCID: PMC7892847 DOI: 10.1038/s42003-021-01734-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/08/2020] [Accepted: 12/03/2020] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Widespread declines in Atlantic and Pacific salmon (Salmo salar and Oncorhynchus spp.) have tracked recent climate changes, but managers still lack quantitative projections of the viability of any individual population in response to future climate change. To address this gap, we assembled a vast database of survival and other data for eight wild populations of threatened Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha). For each population, we evaluated climate impacts at all life stages and modeled future trajectories forced by global climate model projections. Populations rapidly declined in response to increasing sea surface temperatures and other factors across diverse model assumptions and climate scenarios. Strong density dependence limited the number of salmon that survived early life stages, suggesting a potentially efficacious target for conservation effort. Other solutions require a better understanding of the factors that limit survival at sea. We conclude that dramatic increases in smolt survival are needed to overcome the negative impacts of climate change for this threatened species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lisa G Crozier
- Fish Ecology Division, Northwest Fisheries Science Center National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, WA, USA.
| | - Brian J Burke
- Fish Ecology Division, Northwest Fisheries Science Center National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Brandon E Chasco
- Fish Ecology Division, Northwest Fisheries Science Center National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Daniel L Widener
- Ocean Associates, Inc. Under contract to Northwest Fisheries Science Center National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Richard W Zabel
- Fish Ecology Division, Northwest Fisheries Science Center National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, WA, USA
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13
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Goertler P, Mahardja B, Sommer T. Striped bass (Morone saxatilis) migration timing driven by estuary outflow and sea surface temperature in the San Francisco Bay-Delta, California. Sci Rep 2021; 11:1510. [PMID: 33452283 PMCID: PMC7810903 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-80517-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/03/2020] [Accepted: 12/16/2020] [Indexed: 01/29/2023] Open
Abstract
The influence of climate on the timing of large-scale animal migrations is a major ecological and resource management concern. Anadromous fish migrations can have broad scale impacts on human communities and marine, aquatic and terrestrial food webs. However, isolating the effects of climate change on the timing of life stage transitions for anadromous fish species is challenging. Striped bass (Morone saxatilis) exhibit striking variation in migration patterns within their natural range, including migratory behaviors that change with latitude, and climate-induced temperature changes are predicted to drive future habitat and distribution changes. Here we explore the linkages between migration and multiple components of coastal and inland aquatic ecosystems impacted by climate change. By leveraging environmental and fisheries monitoring which began in 1969, we describe the upstream migration timing of non-native adult Striped bass influenced by estuary outflow and sea surface temperature in the San Francisco Bay-Delta, California. Striped bass migrated later in years when Delta outflow was greater and sea surface temperature was cooler. It is likely that temperature thresholds in the ocean during the springtime provide a cue for Striped bass to initiate migration, but sea surface temperature may also represent composite climatic trends influencing Striped bass. Further, the observed variation in migration timing of adult Striped bass has implications for predation risk on the seaward-migration of juvenile Chinook salmon.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pascale Goertler
- grid.427509.d0000 0004 0606 2237California Department of Water Resources, Division of Environmental Services, 3500 Industrial Blvd, West Sacramento, CA 95691 USA
| | - Brian Mahardja
- grid.462979.70000 0001 2287 7477United States Fish and Wildlife Service, 850 S Guild Ave #105, Lodi, CA 95240 USA
| | - Ted Sommer
- grid.427509.d0000 0004 0606 2237California Department of Water Resources, Division of Environmental Services, 3500 Industrial Blvd, West Sacramento, CA 95691 USA
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14
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Del Rio AM, Mukai GN, Martin BT, Johnson RC, Fangue NA, Israel JA, Todgham AE. Differential sensitivity to warming and hypoxia during development and long-term effects of developmental exposure in early life stage Chinook salmon. CONSERVATION PHYSIOLOGY 2021; 9:coab054. [PMID: 34257996 PMCID: PMC8271147 DOI: 10.1093/conphys/coab054] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/30/2020] [Revised: 04/28/2021] [Accepted: 06/15/2021] [Indexed: 05/13/2023]
Abstract
Warming and hypoxia are two stressors commonly found within natural salmon redds that are likely to co-occur. Warming and hypoxia can interact physiologically, but their combined effects during fish development remain poorly studied, particularly stage-specific effects and potential carry-over effects. To test the impacts of warm water temperature and hypoxia as individual and combined developmental stressors, late fall-run Chinook salmon embryos were reared in 10 treatments from fertilization through hatching with two temperatures [10°C (ambient) and 14°C (warm)], two dissolved oxygen saturation levels [normoxia (100% air saturation, 10.4-11.4 mg O2/l) and hypoxia (50% saturation, 5.5 mg O2/l)] and three exposure times (early [eyed stage], late [silver-eyed stage] and chronic [fertilization through hatching]). After hatching, all treatments were transferred to control conditions (10°C and 100% air saturation) through the fry stage. To study stage-specific effects of stressor exposure we measured routine metabolic rate (RMR) at two embryonic stages, hatching success and growth. To evaluate carry-over effects, where conditions during one life stage influence performance in a later stage, RMR of all treatments was measured in control conditions at two post-hatch stages and acute stress tolerance was measured at the fry stage. We found evidence of stage-specific effects of both stressors during exposure and carry-over effects on physiological performance. Both individual stressors affected RMR, growth and developmental rate while multiple stressors late in development reduced hatching success. RMR post-hatch showed persistent effects of embryonic stressor exposure that may underlie differences observed in developmental timing and acute stress tolerance. The responses to stressors that varied by stage during development suggest that stage-specific management efforts could support salmon embryo survival. The persistent carry-over effects also indicate that considering sub-lethal effects of developmental stressor exposure may be important to understanding how climate change influences the performance of salmon across life stages.
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Affiliation(s)
- Annelise M Del Rio
- Department of Animal Science, University of California Davis, Davis, CA 95616, USA
| | - Gabriella N Mukai
- Department of Animal Science, University of California Davis, Davis, CA 95616, USA
- Department of Biology, University of Hawai’i at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA
| | - Benjamin T Martin
- University of California Santa Cruz, Cooperative Institute for Marine Ecosystems and Climate (CIMEC), Santa Cruz, CA 95064, USA
- Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 110 Shaffer Road, Santa Cruz, CA 95060, USA
- Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, 1098 XH Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Rachel C Johnson
- Department of Animal Science, University of California Davis, Davis, CA 95616, USA
- University of California Santa Cruz, Cooperative Institute for Marine Ecosystems and Climate (CIMEC), Santa Cruz, CA 95064, USA
- Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 110 Shaffer Road, Santa Cruz, CA 95060, USA
| | - Nann A Fangue
- Department of Wildlife, Fish, and Conservation Biology, University of California Davis, Davis, CA 95616, USA
| | - Joshua A Israel
- Bay-Delta Office, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Sacramento, CA 95825, USA
| | - Anne E Todgham
- Department of Animal Science, University of California Davis, Davis, CA 95616, USA
- Corresponding author: Department of Animal Science, University of California Davis, Davis, CA 95616, USA.
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15
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Arevalo E, Lassalle G, Tétard S, Maire A, Sauquet E, Lambert P, Paumier A, Villeneuve B, Drouineau H. An innovative bivariate approach to detect joint temporal trends in environmental conditions: Application to large French rivers and diadromous fish. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 748:141260. [PMID: 32805565 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141260] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/13/2020] [Revised: 07/22/2020] [Accepted: 07/24/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Most key life-events of organisms are synchronized by complex interactions of several environmental cues to ensure optimal survival and growth of individuals and their offspring. However, global change is known to affect multiple components of ecosystems and cues at the same time. Therefore, detecting joint trends in covariate time series is a crucial challenge in global change ecology that has rarely been addressed so far. In this context, we designed an innovative combination of kernel density estimations and Mann-Kendall trend tests to detect joint temporal trends in a pair of environmental variables. This methodological framework was tested on >30 years (1976-2019) of water temperature and discharge data for 6 large French rivers (the Garonne, Dordogne, Rhône, Rhine, Loire and Vienne rivers). The implications of such trends in both temperature and discharge for diadromous species key life-cycle processes were then explored by checking if significant bivariate environmental changes occurred during seasons of upstream and downstream migration, and reproductive activities. Results were contrasted between rivers and seasons: many rivers displayed an increase in the number of days with high water temperature and low river discharge, but local discharge regulation measures could have mitigated the trend in discharge. Our findings showed that species migrating or spawning in spring were likely to be strongly impacted by the new environmental conditions in the Garonne, Loire and Rhône rivers, given the marked changes in water temperature and discharge associations detected by our new method. Conditions experienced by fall-running and spawning species have been strongly affected in all the rivers studied. This innovative methodology was implemented in a new R package, ChocR, for application to other environments and ecosystems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elorri Arevalo
- INRAE, Unité EABX - Écosystèmes Aquatiques et Changements Globaux, HYNES (Irstea-EDF R&D), 50 avenue de Verdun, 33612 Cestas Cedex, France.
| | - Géraldine Lassalle
- INRAE, Unité EABX - Écosystèmes Aquatiques et Changements Globaux, HYNES (Irstea-EDF R&D), 50 avenue de Verdun, 33612 Cestas Cedex, France
| | - Stéphane Tétard
- EDF R&D LNHE - Laboratoire National d'Hydraulique et Environnement, HYNES (Irstea-EDF R&D), 6 quai Watier, 78401 Chatou Cedex, France
| | - Anthony Maire
- EDF R&D LNHE - Laboratoire National d'Hydraulique et Environnement, HYNES (Irstea-EDF R&D), 6 quai Watier, 78401 Chatou Cedex, France
| | - Eric Sauquet
- INRAE, Unité RiverLy, 5 Rue de la Doua CS20244, 69625 Villeurbanne Cedex, France
| | - Patrick Lambert
- INRAE, Unité EABX - Écosystèmes Aquatiques et Changements Globaux, HYNES (Irstea-EDF R&D), 50 avenue de Verdun, 33612 Cestas Cedex, France
| | - Alexis Paumier
- INRAE, Unité EABX - Écosystèmes Aquatiques et Changements Globaux, HYNES (Irstea-EDF R&D), 50 avenue de Verdun, 33612 Cestas Cedex, France
| | - Bertrand Villeneuve
- INRAE, Unité EABX - Écosystèmes Aquatiques et Changements Globaux, HYNES (Irstea-EDF R&D), 50 avenue de Verdun, 33612 Cestas Cedex, France
| | - Hilaire Drouineau
- INRAE, Unité EABX - Écosystèmes Aquatiques et Changements Globaux, HYNES (Irstea-EDF R&D), 50 avenue de Verdun, 33612 Cestas Cedex, France
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16
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Hawkins BL, Fullerton AH, Sanderson BL, Steel EA. Individual‐based simulations suggest mixed impacts of warmer temperatures and a nonnative predator on Chinook salmon. Ecosphere 2020. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.3218] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/01/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- B. L. Hawkins
- Ecology, Behavior and Evolution Section Division of Biological Sciences University of California San Diego San Diego California USA
| | - A. H. Fullerton
- Fish Ecology Division Northwest Fisheries Science Center National Marine Fisheries ServiceNOAA Seattle Washington USA
| | - B. L. Sanderson
- Fish Ecology Division Northwest Fisheries Science Center National Marine Fisheries ServiceNOAA Seattle Washington USA
| | - E. A. Steel
- School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences and Department of Statistics University of Washington Seattle Washington USA
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17
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Pitman KJ, Moore JW, Sloat MR, Beaudreau AH, Bidlack AL, Brenner RE, Hood EW, Pess GR, Mantua NJ, Milner AM, Radić V, Reeves GH, Schindler DE, Whited DC. Glacier Retreat and Pacific Salmon. Bioscience 2020; 70:220-236. [PMID: 32174645 PMCID: PMC7064434 DOI: 10.1093/biosci/biaa015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Glaciers have shaped past and present habitats for Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) in North America. During the last glacial maximum, approximately 45% of the current North American range of Pacific salmon was covered in ice. Currently, most salmon habitat occurs in watersheds in which glacier ice is present and retreating. This synthesis examines the multiple ways that glacier retreat can influence aquatic ecosystems through the lens of Pacific salmon life cycles. We predict that the coming decades will result in areas in which salmon populations will be challenged by diminished water flows and elevated water temperatures, areas in which salmon productivity will be enhanced as downstream habitat suitability increases, and areas in which new river and lake habitat will be formed that can be colonized by anadromous salmon. Effective conservation and management of salmon habitat and populations should consider the impacts of glacier retreat and other sources of ecosystem change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kara J Pitman
- Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Jonathan W Moore
- Earth2Oceans Research Group, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, Canada
| | | | - Anne H Beaudreau
- College of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Juneau, Alaska
| | - Allison L Bidlack
- Alaska Coastal Rainforest Center, University of Alaska Southeast, Juneau, Alaska
| | | | - Eran W Hood
- Environmental Science Program, University of Alaska Southeast, Juneau, Alaska
| | - George R Pess
- National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington
| | - Nathan J Mantua
- Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Santa Cruz, California
| | - Alexander M Milner
- School of Geography, Earth, and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom.,Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, Alaska
| | - Valentina Radić
- Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Gordon H Reeves
- US Department of Agriculture's Forest Service, Corvallis, Oregon
| | - Daniel E Schindler
- School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
| | - Diane C Whited
- Flathead Lake Biological Station, University of Montana, Polson, Montana
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18
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Sturrock AM, Carlson SM, Wikert JD, Heyne T, Nusslé S, Merz JE, Sturrock HJW, Johnson RC. Unnatural selection of salmon life histories in a modified riverscape. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2020; 26:1235-1247. [PMID: 31789453 PMCID: PMC7277499 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14896] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/20/2019] [Accepted: 09/29/2019] [Indexed: 05/26/2023]
Abstract
Altered river flows and fragmented habitats often simplify riverine communities and favor non-native fishes, but their influence on life-history expression and survival is less clear. Here, we quantified the expression and ultimate success of diverse salmon emigration behaviors in an anthropogenically altered California river system. We analyzed two decades of Chinook salmon monitoring data to explore the influence of regulated flows on juvenile emigration phenology, abundance, and recruitment. We then followed seven cohorts into adulthood using otolith (ear stone) chemical archives to identify patterns in time- and size-selective mortality along the migratory corridor. Suppressed winter flow cues were associated with delayed emigration timing, particularly in warm, dry years, which was also when selection against late migrants was the most extreme. Lower, less variable flows were also associated with reduced juvenile and adult production, highlighting the importance of streamflow for cohort success in these southernmost populations. While most juveniles emigrated from the natal stream as fry or smolts, the survivors were dominated by the rare few that left at intermediate sizes and times, coinciding with managed flows released before extreme summer temperatures. The consistent selection against early (small) and late (large) migrants counters prevailing ecological theory that predicts different traits to be favored under varying environmental conditions. Yet, even with this weakened portfolio, maintaining a broad distribution in migration traits still increased adult production and reduced variance. In years exhibiting large fry pulses, even marginal increases in their survival would have significantly boosted recruitment. However, management actions favoring any single phenotype could have negative evolutionary and demographic consequences, potentially reducing adaptability and population stability. To recover fish populations and support viable fisheries in a warming and increasingly unpredictable climate, coordinating flow and habitat management within and among watersheds will be critical to balance trait optimization versus diversification.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anna M. Sturrock
- Center for Watershed SciencesUniversity of California, DavisDavisCAUSA
| | - Stephanie M. Carlson
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and ManagementUniversity of California, BerkeleyBerkeleyCAUSA
| | | | - Tim Heyne
- California Department of Fish and WildlifeLa GrangeCAUSA
| | - Sébastien Nusslé
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and ManagementUniversity of California, BerkeleyBerkeleyCAUSA
| | - Joseph E. Merz
- Institute of Marine SciencesUniversity of California Santa CruzSanta CruzCAUSA
- Cramer Fish SciencesWest SacramentoCAUSA
| | - Hugh J. W. Sturrock
- Department of Epidemiology & BiostatisticsUniversity of California, San FranciscoSan FranciscoCAUSA
| | - Rachel C. Johnson
- Center for Watershed SciencesUniversity of California, DavisDavisCAUSA
- Fisheries Ecology DivisionSouthwest Fisheries Science CenterNational Marine Fisheries ServiceSanta CruzCAUSA
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